2014 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
“How will Joe Mauer’s move from catcher to first base affect the Twins?” is likely a question that a number of people have asked this offseason, either aloud or just to themselves. The answer, at least so far as ZiPS is concerned, is probably “Not much.” In either case, that is, Minnesota doesn’t resemble anything much like a club that’ll find itself in playoff contention during the waning months of baseball’s regular season. That’s not to say it won’t affect Mauer’s production, personally. After receiving a projection of four-plus wins from ZiPS last winter and then actually outproducing that figure during 2013, the erstwhile backstop receives here a projection of fewer than three wins as a first baseman.

Part of that appears to be adjustment for BABIP: no player is reasonably forecast to record one above .350, even though Mauer has exceeded that figure each of the last two seasons. Part of that is likely a product of whatever aging curve Dan Szymborski’s math computer utilizes. But a third part of it is due, also, to the positional adjustment for a first basemen relative to a catcher. Whether projected to record a 125 OPS+ (as he was last year) or 121 OPS+ (as with this one), that’s a less formidable number when it’s being produced by a first baseman.

An encouraging development, on the other hand, is the projection for Mauer’s replacement at catcher, Josmil Pinto, about whom Steamer is also rather optimistic.

Pitchers
It’s a credit to GM Terry Ryan that his two most notable free-agent signings of the offseason thus far, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, are also likely to be Minnesota’s two best starting pitchers in 2014. That it’s because they’re the only two starting pitchers likely to produce at something better than replacement level, however, probably isn’t what one might call an “indicator for great success.” Not included among the starting pitchers on the depth chart are Mike Pelfrey (0.1 ZiPS WAR) and Vance Worley (0.3 ZiPS WAR), the former of whom is a free agent; the latter, on his way back from injuries that prevented him from pitching after May.

With regard to the bullpen, left-hander Glen Perkins remains probably the best Twins pitcher on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
It isn’t great for the 2014 Twins that many of the best projections below are assigned to players unlikely to begin the season on the 25-man roster. What it is good for is the 2015 and 2016 and 2017 Twins, probably. Outfielder Byron Buxton and corner-type Miguel Sano, who ranked first and second on Marc Hulet’s organizational prospect list published here yesterday, are both regarded by ZiPS as possessing league-average talent already. A nearly similar thing can be said for top pitching prospect Alex Meyer, for whom the concerns momentarily regard his health more than his ability.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Joe Mauer	L	31	1B	582	71	148	30	1	10	60	3	3
Josmil Pinto	R	25	C	563	64	131	26	2	14	59	0	1
Miguel Sano	R	21	3B	556	77	112	24	3	30	81	8	4
Byron Buxton	R	20	CF	531	64	122	16	6	9	45	30	15
Brian Dozier	R	27	2B	618	73	138	28	5	12	59	14	7
Alex Presley	L	28	CF	612	77	144	21	8	13	55	16	9
Oswaldo Arcia	L	23	LF	551	65	130	25	4	20	68	3	4
Josh Willingham	R	35	LF	478	55	94	20	0	20	66	2	1
Chris Herrmann	L	26	C	508	52	100	17	2	8	44	3	2
Trevor Plouffe	R	28	3B	537	59	120	24	2	18	56	3	3
Jorge Polanco	B	20	2B	453	51	107	22	4	4	41	4	5
Pedro Florimon	B	27	SS	515	50	108	19	2	8	47	15	8
Aaron Hicks	B	24	CF	509	65	97	19	5	10	42	15	7
Eric Fryer	R	28	C	273	31	52	9	1	5	23	5	0
Chris Colabello	R	30	1B	558	66	125	24	0	21	69	1	1
Chris Parmelee	L	26	RF	569	54	123	26	2	13	55	1	1
Eduardo Escobar	B	25	SS	461	50	105	18	4	5	35	8	5
Eddie Rosario	L	22	2B	539	60	128	26	4	10	54	8	12
Danny Santana	B	23	SS	599	61	143	20	6	5	45	20	11
Jason Bartlett	R	34	SS	375	44	79	15	2	2	28	9	5
Deibinson Romero	R	27	3B	481	49	96	17	2	11	47	2	1
Ryan Doumit	B	33	DH	455	44	105	23	1	12	51	0	0
Jermaine Mitchell	L	29	CF	481	55	96	17	7	7	37	14	9
Max Kepler	L	21	1B	333	40	73	14	2	10	37	3	0
Jamey Carroll	R	40	3B	331	38	71	12	0	0	19	4	2
Brandon Waring	R	28	3B	488	49	85	18	1	16	47	0	0
Wilkin Ramirez	R	28	CF	328	32	68	13	2	8	30	8	5
Eric Farris	R	28	2B	503	44	112	17	2	4	30	19	6
Darin Mastroianni	R	28	LF	358	38	73	11	3	2	24	21	4
Doug Bernier	R	34	SS	323	31	61	12	2	1	20	3	2
Kennys Vargas	B	23	1B	434	51	91	20	0	14	50	0	0
James Beresford	L	25	2B	502	48	114	13	2	0	30	6	6
Ray Olmedo	B	33	3B	402	39	86	14	1	1	25	6	3
Jeff Clement	L	30	1B	411	40	83	22	1	11	48	1	1
Brian Dinkelman	L	30	RF	391	36	80	16	1	4	29	5	2
Chris Rahl	R	30	RF	426	42	94	17	4	6	37	14	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Joe Mauer	582	12.0%	14.9%	.122	.334	.292	.378	.414	.340
Josmil Pinto	563	7.6%	21.7%	.140	.307	.255	.314	.395	.313
Miguel Sano	556	9.4%	34.9%	.244	.300	.227	.308	.471	.337
Byron Buxton	531	8.5%	26.9%	.115	.342	.254	.321	.369	.307
Brian Dozier	618	7.0%	17.8%	.132	.284	.246	.303	.378	.298
Alex Presley	612	6.7%	19.4%	.135	.303	.256	.309	.391	.306
Oswaldo Arcia	551	7.3%	27.0%	.185	.327	.259	.319	.444	.331
Josh Willingham	478	12.1%	25.7%	.198	.279	.233	.343	.431	.339
Chris Herrmann	508	8.5%	23.2%	.099	.275	.218	.287	.317	.269
Trevor Plouffe	537	6.9%	21.6%	.168	.285	.246	.305	.414	.314
Jorge Polanco	453	5.7%	16.6%	.100	.299	.257	.299	.357	.286
Pedro Florimon	515	7.0%	28.0%	.101	.315	.232	.289	.333	.273
Aaron Hicks	509	9.6%	27.5%	.130	.285	.215	.292	.345	.283
Eric Fryer	273	9.2%	25.3%	.108	.278	.216	.295	.324	.281
Chris Colabello	558	7.3%	25.8%	.171	.301	.247	.308	.418	.319
Chris Parmelee	569	9.3%	21.1%	.136	.290	.243	.316	.379	.306
Eduardo Escobar	461	5.0%	20.8%	.097	.306	.246	.287	.343	.274
Eddie Rosario	539	5.0%	20.6%	.127	.303	.254	.290	.381	.288
Danny Santana	599	3.3%	18.4%	.083	.306	.254	.285	.337	.272
Jason Bartlett	375	8.0%	17.9%	.074	.287	.237	.303	.311	.273
Deibinson Romero	481	7.9%	24.7%	.124	.277	.222	.290	.346	.282
Ryan Doumit	455	7.5%	18.5%	.147	.289	.254	.312	.401	.310
Jermaine Mitchell	481	8.1%	28.7%	.119	.305	.220	.287	.339	.277
Max Kepler	333	6.3%	20.4%	.156	.274	.238	.294	.394	.306
Jamey Carroll	331	7.9%	13.9%	.040	.281	.240	.303	.280	.263
Brandon Waring	488	6.6%	39.1%	.153	.288	.191	.257	.344	.266
Wilkin Ramirez	328	4.6%	30.8%	.133	.299	.221	.260	.354	.268
Eric Farris	503	4.2%	14.1%	.071	.273	.239	.276	.310	.261
Darin Mastroianni	358	7.8%	22.1%	.072	.293	.227	.294	.299	.273
Doug Bernier	323	7.4%	25.7%	.066	.293	.212	.278	.278	.248
Kennys Vargas	434	7.4%	27.9%	.157	.293	.231	.293	.388	.299
James Beresford	502	5.4%	15.5%	.037	.295	.247	.291	.284	.254
Ray Olmedo	402	5.2%	16.7%	.052	.281	.232	.277	.284	.246
Jeff Clement	411	6.1%	26.0%	.149	.270	.217	.265	.366	.276
Brian Dinkelman	391	6.4%	18.9%	.084	.270	.223	.280	.307	.260
Chris Rahl	426	3.1%	29.3%	.106	.319	.233	.262	.339	.264

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Joe Mauer	582	5.9	121	6	2.8	Keith Hernandez
Josmil Pinto	563	4.5	96	-3	2.7	John Ramos
Miguel Sano	556	5.1	113	-4	2.6	Danny Tartabull
Byron Buxton	531	4.3	92	6	2.3	Bernie Williams
Brian Dozier	618	4.1	88	1	1.7	Mike Dzurilla
Alex Presley	612	4.3	93	-3	1.6	Steve Finley
Oswaldo Arcia	551	5.1	110	-3	1.5	Mel Hall
Josh Willingham	478	5.2	114	-6	1.4	Jay Buhner
Chris Herrmann	508	3.1	68	1	1.1	Andy Skeels
Trevor Plouffe	537	4.5	98	-8	1.0	Jason Wood
Jorge Polanco	453	3.7	82	3	0.9	Mark Lewis
Pedro Florimon	515	3.4	73	1	0.9	Doug Baker
Aaron Hicks	509	3.5	77	1	0.7	Lee Tinsley
Eric Fryer	273	3.5	72	-1	0.6	Tony DeFrancesco
Chris Colabello	558	4.6	100	-1	0.6	Nate Gold
Chris Parmelee	569	4.3	93	-1	0.6	Mike Robertson
Eduardo Escobar	461	3.5	75	-1	0.6	Curtis Wilkerson
Eddie Rosario	539	3.7	85	-1	0.6	Brad Wellman
Danny Santana	599	3.5	73	-1	0.6	Carlos Garcia
Jason Bartlett	375	3.3	72	-1	0.5	Royce Clayton
Deibinson Romero	481	3.5	76	-1	0.4	Brad Seitzer
Ryan Doumit	455	4.5	97	0	0.3	Carl Everett
Jermaine Mitchell	481	3.3	74	0	0.3	Herm Winningham
Max Kepler	333	4.2	90	0	0.1	Scott Hatteberg
Jamey Carroll	331	3.0	64	0	-0.1	Ossie Bluege
Brandon Waring	488	3.0	65	-3	-0.1	Ryan Minor
Wilkin Ramirez	328	3.1	69	-1	-0.2	Sean Barker
Eric Farris	503	3.2	63	-1	-0.2	Donovan Mitchell
Darin Mastroianni	358	3.5	66	2	-0.3	Rich Amaral
Doug Bernier	323	2.6	56	-1	-0.3	Steve Scarsone
Kennys Vargas	434	4.0	88	-3	-0.5	Felix Colon
James Beresford	502	2.8	61	1	-0.5	John Skorochocki
Ray Olmedo	402	2.8	57	-1	-0.6	Alfredo Griffin
Jeff Clement	411	3.3	73	-2	-0.9	Les Wallin
Brian Dinkelman	391	3.0	64	-2	-0.9	Marc Sagmoen
Chris Rahl	426	3.2	66	2	-0.9	Sean Barker

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Ricky Nolasco	R	31	30	30	177.7	139	39	20	189	89	83
Alex Meyer	R	24	21	21	100.7	92	47	9	98	50	47
Glen Perkins	L	31	62	0	61.3	74	17	6	50	20	19
Phil Hughes	R	28	27	26	141.7	118	39	20	152	78	73
Anthony Swarzak	R	28	48	0	88.7	68	23	9	88	40	37
Jared Burton	R	33	63	0	59.0	56	19	6	54	26	24
Samuel Deduno	R	30	21	21	110.0	79	60	12	112	63	59
Vance Worley	R	26	23	22	127.0	88	42	15	146	74	69
Michael Tonkin	R	24	56	0	68.7	65	26	6	66	32	30
Mike Pelfrey	R	30	22	21	118.7	77	39	14	137	71	66
Casey Fien	R	30	58	0	55.3	58	17	8	52	27	25
Caleb Thielbar	L	27	60	0	70.0	60	27	8	67	34	32
Brian Duensing	L	31	69	0	63.3	55	21	6	65	31	29
Kevin Correia	R	33	26	25	145.7	82	40	22	170	88	82
Trevor May	R	24	26	26	140.3	127	68	21	146	86	80
Ryan Pressly	R	25	52	0	73.7	52	29	8	76	39	36
Scott Diamond	L	27	29	29	167.0	83	45	23	199	103	96
Kyle Davies	R	30	17	14	70.3	53	26	10	79	44	41
Kyle Gibson	R	26	21	20	97.3	65	40	13	111	61	57
Andrew Albers	L	28	28	21	124.0	73	33	18	145	77	72
Lester Oliveros	R	26	27	0	33.3	28	16	4	34	19	18
Deolis Guerra	R	25	17	0	29.0	23	13	4	31	17	16
Liam Hendriks	R	25	27	26	149.7	88	42	22	179	96	90
Aaron Thompson	L	27	35	8	76.0	41	27	10	91	49	46
Kris Johnson	L	29	25	14	90.3	53	46	12	103	60	56
Nick Blackburn	R	32	15	15	81.0	36	24	12	102	56	52
Edgar Ibarra	L	25	46	0	64.3	48	35	8	69	40	37
Logan Darnell	L	25	26	25	136.7	78	51	21	164	92	86
Cole DeVries	R	29	23	21	111.7	61	30	21	136	78	73
Shairon Martis	R	27	35	13	100.3	68	51	20	118	76	71

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Ricky Nolasco	177.7	761	18.3%	5.1%	.304	4.20	4.10	104	101
Alex Meyer	100.7	447	20.6%	10.5%	.304	4.20	4.35	104	108
Glen Perkins	61.3	251	29.5%	6.8%	.290	2.79	3.13	69	77
Phil Hughes	141.7	616	19.2%	6.3%	.304	4.64	4.50	115	111
Anthony Swarzak	88.7	377	18.0%	6.1%	.287	3.76	4.04	93	100
Jared Burton	59.0	250	22.4%	7.6%	.293	3.66	3.93	91	97
Samuel Deduno	110.0	502	15.7%	12.0%	.292	4.83	5.30	120	131
Vance Worley	127.0	569	15.5%	7.4%	.313	4.89	4.65	121	115
Michael Tonkin	68.7	298	21.8%	8.7%	.303	3.93	3.91	97	97
Mike Pelfrey	118.7	532	14.5%	7.3%	.309	5.01	4.71	124	117
Casey Fien	55.3	235	24.7%	7.2%	.292	4.07	4.04	101	100
Caleb Thielbar	70.0	304	19.7%	8.9%	.286	4.11	4.33	102	107
Brian Duensing	63.3	276	19.9%	7.6%	.307	4.12	3.83	102	95
Kevin Correia	145.7	647	12.7%	6.2%	.295	5.07	5.12	125	127
Trevor May	140.3	635	20.0%	10.7%	.303	5.13	5.18	127	128
Ryan Pressly	73.7	326	15.9%	8.9%	.288	4.40	4.62	109	114
Scott Diamond	167.0	745	11.1%	6.0%	.299	5.17	5.08	128	126
Kyle Davies	70.3	316	16.8%	8.2%	.310	5.25	5.02	130	124
Kyle Gibson	97.3	443	14.7%	9.0%	.308	5.27	5.29	130	131
Andrew Albers	124.0	550	13.3%	6.0%	.303	5.23	5.12	129	127
Lester Oliveros	33.3	150	18.7%	10.7%	.300	4.86	4.76	120	118
Deolis Guerra	29.0	131	17.6%	9.9%	.303	4.97	5.20	123	129
Liam Hendriks	149.7	670	13.1%	6.3%	.308	5.41	5.16	134	128
Aaron Thompson	76.0	346	11.8%	7.8%	.308	5.45	5.33	135	132
Kris Johnson	90.3	420	12.6%	11.0%	.300	5.58	5.69	138	141
Nick Blackburn	81.0	369	9.8%	6.5%	.306	5.78	5.44	143	135
Edgar Ibarra	64.3	297	16.2%	11.8%	.302	5.18	5.29	128	131
Logan Darnell	136.7	625	12.5%	8.2%	.306	5.66	5.59	140	138
Cole DeVries	111.7	501	12.2%	6.0%	.301	5.88	5.76	146	143
Shairon Martis	100.3	470	14.5%	10.9%	.302	6.37	6.35	158	157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Ricky Nolasco	177.7	7.04	1.98	1.01	95	1.9	Kevin Tapani
Alex Meyer	100.7	8.22	4.20	0.80	95	1.1	Dustin Nippert
Glen Perkins	61.3	10.86	2.50	0.88	143	1.1	Arthur Rhodes
Phil Hughes	141.7	7.49	2.48	1.27	86	0.8	Roy Smith
Anthony Swarzak	88.7	6.90	2.33	0.91	106	0.5	Jose Santiago
Jared Burton	59.0	8.54	2.90	0.92	109	0.4	Jerry Spradlin
Samuel Deduno	110.0	6.46	4.91	0.98	83	0.4	Joe Decker
Vance Worley	127.0	6.24	2.98	1.06	82	0.3	Mike LaCoss
Michael Tonkin	68.7	8.52	3.41	0.79	102	0.3	Alejandro Pena
Mike Pelfrey	118.7	5.84	2.96	1.06	80	0.1	Joey Hamilton
Casey Fien	55.3	9.44	2.77	1.30	98	0.1	Jeff Austin
Caleb Thielbar	70.0	7.71	3.47	1.03	97	0.1	Mike Mohler
Brian Duensing	63.3	7.82	2.99	0.85	97	0.1	Randy Flores
Kevin Correia	145.7	5.07	2.47	1.36	79	0.1	Dave Johnson
Trevor May	140.3	8.15	4.36	1.35	78	0.0	Matt Kinney
Ryan Pressly	73.7	6.35	3.54	0.98	91	-0.1	Frank Lankford
Scott Diamond	167.0	4.47	2.43	1.24	77	-0.1	Mike Maroth
Kyle Davies	70.3	6.79	3.33	1.28	76	-0.1	Evan Thomas
Kyle Gibson	97.3	6.01	3.70	1.20	76	-0.2	Kane Davis
Andrew Albers	124.0	5.30	2.40	1.31	76	-0.2	Scott Downs
Lester Oliveros	33.3	7.57	4.32	1.08	82	-0.2	Matt Palmer
Deolis Guerra	29.0	7.14	4.03	1.24	81	-0.3	Brandon Puffer
Liam Hendriks	149.7	5.29	2.53	1.32	74	-0.6	Bill King
Aaron Thompson	76.0	4.86	3.20	1.18	73	-0.6	Phil Devey
Kris Johnson	90.3	5.28	4.58	1.20	72	-0.6	Eddie Oropesa
Nick Blackburn	81.0	4.00	2.67	1.33	69	-0.7	Brian Moehler
Edgar Ibarra	64.3	6.72	4.90	1.12	77	-0.7	Chad Brown
Logan Darnell	136.7	5.14	3.36	1.38	71	-0.9	Jason Cromer
Cole DeVries	111.7	4.91	2.42	1.69	68	-1.1	Steve Ellsworth
Shairon Martis	100.3	6.10	4.58	1.79	63	-1.8	R.A. Dickey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.