2014 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins by Carson Cistulli December 13, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis. Batters “How will Joe Mauer’s move from catcher to first base affect the Twins?” is likely a question that a number of people have asked this offseason, either aloud or just to themselves. The answer, at least so far as ZiPS is concerned, is probably “Not much.” In either case, that is, Minnesota doesn’t resemble anything much like a club that’ll find itself in playoff contention during the waning months of baseball’s regular season. That’s not to say it won’t affect Mauer’s production, personally. After receiving a projection of four-plus wins from ZiPS last winter and then actually outproducing that figure during 2013, the erstwhile backstop receives here a projection of fewer than three wins as a first baseman. Part of that appears to be adjustment for BABIP: no player is reasonably forecast to record one above .350, even though Mauer has exceeded that figure each of the last two seasons. Part of that is likely a product of whatever aging curve Dan Szymborski’s math computer utilizes. But a third part of it is due, also, to the positional adjustment for a first basemen relative to a catcher. Whether projected to record a 125 OPS+ (as he was last year) or 121 OPS+ (as with this one), that’s a less formidable number when it’s being produced by a first baseman. An encouraging development, on the other hand, is the projection for Mauer’s replacement at catcher, Josmil Pinto, about whom Steamer is also rather optimistic. Pitchers It’s a credit to GM Terry Ryan that his two most notable free-agent signings of the offseason thus far, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, are also likely to be Minnesota’s two best starting pitchers in 2014. That it’s because they’re the only two starting pitchers likely to produce at something better than replacement level, however, probably isn’t what one might call an “indicator for great success.” Not included among the starting pitchers on the depth chart are Mike Pelfrey (0.1 ZiPS WAR) and Vance Worley (0.3 ZiPS WAR), the former of whom is a free agent; the latter, on his way back from injuries that prevented him from pitching after May. With regard to the bullpen, left-hander Glen Perkins remains probably the best Twins pitcher on a per-inning basis. Bench/Prospects It isn’t great for the 2014 Twins that many of the best projections below are assigned to players unlikely to begin the season on the 25-man roster. What it is good for is the 2015 and 2016 and 2017 Twins, probably. Outfielder Byron Buxton and corner-type Miguel Sano, who ranked first and second on Marc Hulet’s organizational prospect list published here yesterday, are both regarded by ZiPS as possessing league-average talent already. A nearly similar thing can be said for top pitching prospect Alex Meyer, for whom the concerns momentarily regard his health more than his ability. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Joe Mauer L 31 1B 582 71 148 30 1 10 60 3 3 Josmil Pinto R 25 C 563 64 131 26 2 14 59 0 1 Miguel Sano R 21 3B 556 77 112 24 3 30 81 8 4 Byron Buxton R 20 CF 531 64 122 16 6 9 45 30 15 Brian Dozier R 27 2B 618 73 138 28 5 12 59 14 7 Alex Presley L 28 CF 612 77 144 21 8 13 55 16 9 Oswaldo Arcia L 23 LF 551 65 130 25 4 20 68 3 4 Josh Willingham R 35 LF 478 55 94 20 0 20 66 2 1 Chris Herrmann L 26 C 508 52 100 17 2 8 44 3 2 Trevor Plouffe R 28 3B 537 59 120 24 2 18 56 3 3 Jorge Polanco B 20 2B 453 51 107 22 4 4 41 4 5 Pedro Florimon B 27 SS 515 50 108 19 2 8 47 15 8 Aaron Hicks B 24 CF 509 65 97 19 5 10 42 15 7 Eric Fryer R 28 C 273 31 52 9 1 5 23 5 0 Chris Colabello R 30 1B 558 66 125 24 0 21 69 1 1 Chris Parmelee L 26 RF 569 54 123 26 2 13 55 1 1 Eduardo Escobar B 25 SS 461 50 105 18 4 5 35 8 5 Eddie Rosario L 22 2B 539 60 128 26 4 10 54 8 12 Danny Santana B 23 SS 599 61 143 20 6 5 45 20 11 Jason Bartlett R 34 SS 375 44 79 15 2 2 28 9 5 Deibinson Romero R 27 3B 481 49 96 17 2 11 47 2 1 Ryan Doumit B 33 DH 455 44 105 23 1 12 51 0 0 Jermaine Mitchell L 29 CF 481 55 96 17 7 7 37 14 9 Max Kepler L 21 1B 333 40 73 14 2 10 37 3 0 Jamey Carroll R 40 3B 331 38 71 12 0 0 19 4 2 Brandon Waring R 28 3B 488 49 85 18 1 16 47 0 0 Wilkin Ramirez R 28 CF 328 32 68 13 2 8 30 8 5 Eric Farris R 28 2B 503 44 112 17 2 4 30 19 6 Darin Mastroianni R 28 LF 358 38 73 11 3 2 24 21 4 Doug Bernier R 34 SS 323 31 61 12 2 1 20 3 2 Kennys Vargas B 23 1B 434 51 91 20 0 14 50 0 0 James Beresford L 25 2B 502 48 114 13 2 0 30 6 6 Ray Olmedo B 33 3B 402 39 86 14 1 1 25 6 3 Jeff Clement L 30 1B 411 40 83 22 1 11 48 1 1 Brian Dinkelman L 30 RF 391 36 80 16 1 4 29 5 2 Chris Rahl R 30 RF 426 42 94 17 4 6 37 14 6 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Joe Mauer 582 12.0% 14.9% .122 .334 .292 .378 .414 .340 Josmil Pinto 563 7.6% 21.7% .140 .307 .255 .314 .395 .313 Miguel Sano 556 9.4% 34.9% .244 .300 .227 .308 .471 .337 Byron Buxton 531 8.5% 26.9% .115 .342 .254 .321 .369 .307 Brian Dozier 618 7.0% 17.8% .132 .284 .246 .303 .378 .298 Alex Presley 612 6.7% 19.4% .135 .303 .256 .309 .391 .306 Oswaldo Arcia 551 7.3% 27.0% .185 .327 .259 .319 .444 .331 Josh Willingham 478 12.1% 25.7% .198 .279 .233 .343 .431 .339 Chris Herrmann 508 8.5% 23.2% .099 .275 .218 .287 .317 .269 Trevor Plouffe 537 6.9% 21.6% .168 .285 .246 .305 .414 .314 Jorge Polanco 453 5.7% 16.6% .100 .299 .257 .299 .357 .286 Pedro Florimon 515 7.0% 28.0% .101 .315 .232 .289 .333 .273 Aaron Hicks 509 9.6% 27.5% .130 .285 .215 .292 .345 .283 Eric Fryer 273 9.2% 25.3% .108 .278 .216 .295 .324 .281 Chris Colabello 558 7.3% 25.8% .171 .301 .247 .308 .418 .319 Chris Parmelee 569 9.3% 21.1% .136 .290 .243 .316 .379 .306 Eduardo Escobar 461 5.0% 20.8% .097 .306 .246 .287 .343 .274 Eddie Rosario 539 5.0% 20.6% .127 .303 .254 .290 .381 .288 Danny Santana 599 3.3% 18.4% .083 .306 .254 .285 .337 .272 Jason Bartlett 375 8.0% 17.9% .074 .287 .237 .303 .311 .273 Deibinson Romero 481 7.9% 24.7% .124 .277 .222 .290 .346 .282 Ryan Doumit 455 7.5% 18.5% .147 .289 .254 .312 .401 .310 Jermaine Mitchell 481 8.1% 28.7% .119 .305 .220 .287 .339 .277 Max Kepler 333 6.3% 20.4% .156 .274 .238 .294 .394 .306 Jamey Carroll 331 7.9% 13.9% .040 .281 .240 .303 .280 .263 Brandon Waring 488 6.6% 39.1% .153 .288 .191 .257 .344 .266 Wilkin Ramirez 328 4.6% 30.8% .133 .299 .221 .260 .354 .268 Eric Farris 503 4.2% 14.1% .071 .273 .239 .276 .310 .261 Darin Mastroianni 358 7.8% 22.1% .072 .293 .227 .294 .299 .273 Doug Bernier 323 7.4% 25.7% .066 .293 .212 .278 .278 .248 Kennys Vargas 434 7.4% 27.9% .157 .293 .231 .293 .388 .299 James Beresford 502 5.4% 15.5% .037 .295 .247 .291 .284 .254 Ray Olmedo 402 5.2% 16.7% .052 .281 .232 .277 .284 .246 Jeff Clement 411 6.1% 26.0% .149 .270 .217 .265 .366 .276 Brian Dinkelman 391 6.4% 18.9% .084 .270 .223 .280 .307 .260 Chris Rahl 426 3.1% 29.3% .106 .319 .233 .262 .339 .264 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Joe Mauer 582 5.9 121 6 2.8 Keith Hernandez Josmil Pinto 563 4.5 96 -3 2.7 John Ramos Miguel Sano 556 5.1 113 -4 2.6 Danny Tartabull Byron Buxton 531 4.3 92 6 2.3 Bernie Williams Brian Dozier 618 4.1 88 1 1.7 Mike Dzurilla Alex Presley 612 4.3 93 -3 1.6 Steve Finley Oswaldo Arcia 551 5.1 110 -3 1.5 Mel Hall Josh Willingham 478 5.2 114 -6 1.4 Jay Buhner Chris Herrmann 508 3.1 68 1 1.1 Andy Skeels Trevor Plouffe 537 4.5 98 -8 1.0 Jason Wood Jorge Polanco 453 3.7 82 3 0.9 Mark Lewis Pedro Florimon 515 3.4 73 1 0.9 Doug Baker Aaron Hicks 509 3.5 77 1 0.7 Lee Tinsley Eric Fryer 273 3.5 72 -1 0.6 Tony DeFrancesco Chris Colabello 558 4.6 100 -1 0.6 Nate Gold Chris Parmelee 569 4.3 93 -1 0.6 Mike Robertson Eduardo Escobar 461 3.5 75 -1 0.6 Curtis Wilkerson Eddie Rosario 539 3.7 85 -1 0.6 Brad Wellman Danny Santana 599 3.5 73 -1 0.6 Carlos Garcia Jason Bartlett 375 3.3 72 -1 0.5 Royce Clayton Deibinson Romero 481 3.5 76 -1 0.4 Brad Seitzer Ryan Doumit 455 4.5 97 0 0.3 Carl Everett Jermaine Mitchell 481 3.3 74 0 0.3 Herm Winningham Max Kepler 333 4.2 90 0 0.1 Scott Hatteberg Jamey Carroll 331 3.0 64 0 -0.1 Ossie Bluege Brandon Waring 488 3.0 65 -3 -0.1 Ryan Minor Wilkin Ramirez 328 3.1 69 -1 -0.2 Sean Barker Eric Farris 503 3.2 63 -1 -0.2 Donovan Mitchell Darin Mastroianni 358 3.5 66 2 -0.3 Rich Amaral Doug Bernier 323 2.6 56 -1 -0.3 Steve Scarsone Kennys Vargas 434 4.0 88 -3 -0.5 Felix Colon James Beresford 502 2.8 61 1 -0.5 John Skorochocki Ray Olmedo 402 2.8 57 -1 -0.6 Alfredo Griffin Jeff Clement 411 3.3 73 -2 -0.9 Les Wallin Brian Dinkelman 391 3.0 64 -2 -0.9 Marc Sagmoen Chris Rahl 426 3.2 66 2 -0.9 Sean Barker *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Ricky Nolasco R 31 30 30 177.7 139 39 20 189 89 83 Alex Meyer R 24 21 21 100.7 92 47 9 98 50 47 Glen Perkins L 31 62 0 61.3 74 17 6 50 20 19 Phil Hughes R 28 27 26 141.7 118 39 20 152 78 73 Anthony Swarzak R 28 48 0 88.7 68 23 9 88 40 37 Jared Burton R 33 63 0 59.0 56 19 6 54 26 24 Samuel Deduno R 30 21 21 110.0 79 60 12 112 63 59 Vance Worley R 26 23 22 127.0 88 42 15 146 74 69 Michael Tonkin R 24 56 0 68.7 65 26 6 66 32 30 Mike Pelfrey R 30 22 21 118.7 77 39 14 137 71 66 Casey Fien R 30 58 0 55.3 58 17 8 52 27 25 Caleb Thielbar L 27 60 0 70.0 60 27 8 67 34 32 Brian Duensing L 31 69 0 63.3 55 21 6 65 31 29 Kevin Correia R 33 26 25 145.7 82 40 22 170 88 82 Trevor May R 24 26 26 140.3 127 68 21 146 86 80 Ryan Pressly R 25 52 0 73.7 52 29 8 76 39 36 Scott Diamond L 27 29 29 167.0 83 45 23 199 103 96 Kyle Davies R 30 17 14 70.3 53 26 10 79 44 41 Kyle Gibson R 26 21 20 97.3 65 40 13 111 61 57 Andrew Albers L 28 28 21 124.0 73 33 18 145 77 72 Lester Oliveros R 26 27 0 33.3 28 16 4 34 19 18 Deolis Guerra R 25 17 0 29.0 23 13 4 31 17 16 Liam Hendriks R 25 27 26 149.7 88 42 22 179 96 90 Aaron Thompson L 27 35 8 76.0 41 27 10 91 49 46 Kris Johnson L 29 25 14 90.3 53 46 12 103 60 56 Nick Blackburn R 32 15 15 81.0 36 24 12 102 56 52 Edgar Ibarra L 25 46 0 64.3 48 35 8 69 40 37 Logan Darnell L 25 26 25 136.7 78 51 21 164 92 86 Cole DeVries R 29 23 21 111.7 61 30 21 136 78 73 Shairon Martis R 27 35 13 100.3 68 51 20 118 76 71 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Ricky Nolasco 177.7 761 18.3% 5.1% .304 4.20 4.10 104 101 Alex Meyer 100.7 447 20.6% 10.5% .304 4.20 4.35 104 108 Glen Perkins 61.3 251 29.5% 6.8% .290 2.79 3.13 69 77 Phil Hughes 141.7 616 19.2% 6.3% .304 4.64 4.50 115 111 Anthony Swarzak 88.7 377 18.0% 6.1% .287 3.76 4.04 93 100 Jared Burton 59.0 250 22.4% 7.6% .293 3.66 3.93 91 97 Samuel Deduno 110.0 502 15.7% 12.0% .292 4.83 5.30 120 131 Vance Worley 127.0 569 15.5% 7.4% .313 4.89 4.65 121 115 Michael Tonkin 68.7 298 21.8% 8.7% .303 3.93 3.91 97 97 Mike Pelfrey 118.7 532 14.5% 7.3% .309 5.01 4.71 124 117 Casey Fien 55.3 235 24.7% 7.2% .292 4.07 4.04 101 100 Caleb Thielbar 70.0 304 19.7% 8.9% .286 4.11 4.33 102 107 Brian Duensing 63.3 276 19.9% 7.6% .307 4.12 3.83 102 95 Kevin Correia 145.7 647 12.7% 6.2% .295 5.07 5.12 125 127 Trevor May 140.3 635 20.0% 10.7% .303 5.13 5.18 127 128 Ryan Pressly 73.7 326 15.9% 8.9% .288 4.40 4.62 109 114 Scott Diamond 167.0 745 11.1% 6.0% .299 5.17 5.08 128 126 Kyle Davies 70.3 316 16.8% 8.2% .310 5.25 5.02 130 124 Kyle Gibson 97.3 443 14.7% 9.0% .308 5.27 5.29 130 131 Andrew Albers 124.0 550 13.3% 6.0% .303 5.23 5.12 129 127 Lester Oliveros 33.3 150 18.7% 10.7% .300 4.86 4.76 120 118 Deolis Guerra 29.0 131 17.6% 9.9% .303 4.97 5.20 123 129 Liam Hendriks 149.7 670 13.1% 6.3% .308 5.41 5.16 134 128 Aaron Thompson 76.0 346 11.8% 7.8% .308 5.45 5.33 135 132 Kris Johnson 90.3 420 12.6% 11.0% .300 5.58 5.69 138 141 Nick Blackburn 81.0 369 9.8% 6.5% .306 5.78 5.44 143 135 Edgar Ibarra 64.3 297 16.2% 11.8% .302 5.18 5.29 128 131 Logan Darnell 136.7 625 12.5% 8.2% .306 5.66 5.59 140 138 Cole DeVries 111.7 501 12.2% 6.0% .301 5.88 5.76 146 143 Shairon Martis 100.3 470 14.5% 10.9% .302 6.37 6.35 158 157 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Ricky Nolasco 177.7 7.04 1.98 1.01 95 1.9 Kevin Tapani Alex Meyer 100.7 8.22 4.20 0.80 95 1.1 Dustin Nippert Glen Perkins 61.3 10.86 2.50 0.88 143 1.1 Arthur Rhodes Phil Hughes 141.7 7.49 2.48 1.27 86 0.8 Roy Smith Anthony Swarzak 88.7 6.90 2.33 0.91 106 0.5 Jose Santiago Jared Burton 59.0 8.54 2.90 0.92 109 0.4 Jerry Spradlin Samuel Deduno 110.0 6.46 4.91 0.98 83 0.4 Joe Decker Vance Worley 127.0 6.24 2.98 1.06 82 0.3 Mike LaCoss Michael Tonkin 68.7 8.52 3.41 0.79 102 0.3 Alejandro Pena Mike Pelfrey 118.7 5.84 2.96 1.06 80 0.1 Joey Hamilton Casey Fien 55.3 9.44 2.77 1.30 98 0.1 Jeff Austin Caleb Thielbar 70.0 7.71 3.47 1.03 97 0.1 Mike Mohler Brian Duensing 63.3 7.82 2.99 0.85 97 0.1 Randy Flores Kevin Correia 145.7 5.07 2.47 1.36 79 0.1 Dave Johnson Trevor May 140.3 8.15 4.36 1.35 78 0.0 Matt Kinney Ryan Pressly 73.7 6.35 3.54 0.98 91 -0.1 Frank Lankford Scott Diamond 167.0 4.47 2.43 1.24 77 -0.1 Mike Maroth Kyle Davies 70.3 6.79 3.33 1.28 76 -0.1 Evan Thomas Kyle Gibson 97.3 6.01 3.70 1.20 76 -0.2 Kane Davis Andrew Albers 124.0 5.30 2.40 1.31 76 -0.2 Scott Downs Lester Oliveros 33.3 7.57 4.32 1.08 82 -0.2 Matt Palmer Deolis Guerra 29.0 7.14 4.03 1.24 81 -0.3 Brandon Puffer Liam Hendriks 149.7 5.29 2.53 1.32 74 -0.6 Bill King Aaron Thompson 76.0 4.86 3.20 1.18 73 -0.6 Phil Devey Kris Johnson 90.3 5.28 4.58 1.20 72 -0.6 Eddie Oropesa Nick Blackburn 81.0 4.00 2.67 1.33 69 -0.7 Brian Moehler Edgar Ibarra 64.3 6.72 4.90 1.12 77 -0.7 Chad Brown Logan Darnell 136.7 5.14 3.36 1.38 71 -0.9 Jason Cromer Cole DeVries 111.7 4.91 2.42 1.69 68 -1.1 Steve Ellsworth Shairon Martis 100.3 6.10 4.58 1.79 63 -1.8 R.A. Dickey *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.