2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets by Carson Cistulli January 10, 2014 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay. Batters A commitment of four years and $60 million was required to sign outfielder Curtis Granderson this offseason, while just one year and $7.25 million were sufficient for other outfielder Chris Young. Equally valuable, is more or less how ZiPS regards the pair, who are entering their age-33 and -30 seasons, respectively. Projected to save five runs as a center fielder, Young might reasonably be considered a candidate to save something like 10-15 runs given a full season in right field for New York. It’s not unthinkable that certain readers will take exception to David Wright’s projection of 4.4 zWAR, after the last two seasons recorded by that handsome Face of the Franchise. “Ridiculous,” one might say. “Pffft,” another is likely to add, probably covering his monitor in saliva at the same time. While unqualified to comment at length about Dan Szymborski’s precise methodology, the present author understands enough about these projections, generally, to know that some combination of BABIP regression, aging curve, and Wright’s decidedly less impressive 2011 campaign are likely the main influences here. Pitchers Mets supporters with a sensitive disposition might want to avoid inspecting the pitching projections for their club below — mostly, that is, because heroic and tragic Matt Harvey’s name appears atop everyone else’s. ZiPS doesn’t know that he’s likely to miss all of 2014, just that he recorded a total of 178.1 innings in 2013 and was excellent while so doing. More than has been the case with other clubs in this ongoing release of ZiPS, it’s the case with the Mets that the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation aren’t necessarily the five considered most qualified by Dan Szymborski’s computer math. Ranked solely by projected WAR, both Rafael Montero (1.5 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (1.4 zWAR) would merit a place in the opening-day rotation. Bench/Prospects The defensively homeless Lucas Duda has recorded no fewer than 347 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons — which is to say that, despite his absence from the depth-chart graphic below, he’s likely to play some part in the Mets 2014 campaign. In addition to the optimistic pitching projections for Montero and Syndergaard, the Metropolitans also appear to feature a few young field players with equally promising forecasts. Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores, and Cesar Puello are all projected to produce baseball wins at something approximating a league-average rate. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS David Wright R 31 3B 550 72 133 27 4 19 74 17 5 Chris Young R 30 CF 461 56 95 24 2 16 54 13 5 Curtis Granderson L 33 CF 474 68 98 16 5 20 54 11 4 Juan Lagares R 25 CF 564 56 134 24 7 6 53 13 7 Daniel Murphy L 29 2B 576 71 152 32 3 9 70 14 3 Wilfredo Tovar R 22 SS 533 60 123 20 4 4 45 11 8 Travis d’Arnaud R 25 C 336 34 75 16 1 9 39 1 1 Cesar Puello R 23 RF 392 52 91 17 3 11 51 19 6 Ruben Tejada R 24 SS 572 57 133 27 2 2 38 5 3 Wilmer Flores R 22 2B 598 71 146 31 4 14 79 2 3 Ike Davis L 27 1B 445 55 89 20 0 18 62 2 1 Juan Centeno L 24 C 301 28 71 10 2 0 22 2 1 Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 26 CF 393 50 78 16 2 11 39 6 3 Anthony Recker R 30 C 287 32 58 13 1 9 34 2 2 Eric Young B 29 LF 460 56 101 19 6 2 26 32 6 Zach Lutz R 28 3B 399 45 81 16 2 10 43 0 1 Justin Turner R 29 3B 336 31 81 19 2 4 31 2 1 Lucas Duda L 28 LF 522 58 108 22 1 18 61 1 1 Matt den Dekker L 26 CF 454 50 94 16 6 9 48 13 5 Josh Satin R 29 1B 536 58 116 25 1 10 50 2 3 Andrew Brown R 29 RF 448 49 92 19 3 15 59 2 2 Josh Rodriguez R 29 3B 489 51 101 19 2 7 44 4 4 Omar Quintanilla L 32 SS 381 38 79 13 3 4 31 2 2 Landon Powell B 32 C 162 17 29 4 0 3 13 0 0 Reese Havens L 27 3B 226 22 40 8 1 5 19 1 1 Taylor Teagarden R 30 C 143 11 25 4 1 4 14 0 0 Brandon Allen L 28 1B 452 50 86 18 3 14 54 5 1 Allan Dykstra L 27 1B 445 45 75 14 0 13 48 1 1 Rick Ankiel L 34 RF 221 23 43 10 1 7 24 2 2 Jamie Hoffmann R 29 LF 467 47 100 21 2 9 49 8 2 Rhyne Hughes L 30 1B 300 31 59 14 1 8 34 2 2 Brian Bixler R 31 CF 330 32 62 11 1 3 22 7 3 Cory Vaughn R 25 LF 458 44 84 14 3 11 45 10 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA David Wright 550 10.9% 19.3% .191 .316 .276 .358 .467 .354 Chris Young 461 10.2% 22.8% .186 .271 .232 .312 .418 .320 Curtis Granderson 474 10.5% 25.9% .207 .284 .237 .322 .444 .333 Juan Lagares 564 4.6% 21.6% .106 .318 .254 .291 .360 .282 Daniel Murphy 576 5.2% 12.5% .121 .310 .282 .320 .403 .316 Wilfredo Tovar 533 5.4% 12.0% .081 .281 .252 .301 .333 .278 Travis d’Arnaud 336 7.4% 24.1% .147 .303 .245 .307 .392 .306 Cesar Puello 392 4.3% 28.1% .156 .335 .253 .314 .409 .324 Ruben Tejada 572 6.1% 13.6% .071 .295 .255 .309 .326 .281 Wilmer Flores 598 4.7% 15.4% .146 .288 .263 .297 .409 .305 Ike Davis 445 12.8% 26.3% .192 .282 .232 .330 .424 .328 Juan Centeno 301 4.7% 15.6% .051 .306 .257 .295 .308 .264 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 8.9% 30.8% .151 .303 .222 .295 .373 .293 Anthony Recker 287 8.4% 27.9% .163 .287 .225 .294 .388 .296 Eric Young 460 8.3% 17.6% .091 .301 .246 .313 .337 .296 Zach Lutz 399 9.0% 30.1% .140 .310 .228 .302 .368 .296 Justin Turner 336 6.0% 14.0% .113 .297 .262 .316 .375 .304 Lucas Duda 522 11.5% 25.3% .173 .295 .239 .335 .412 .328 Matt den Dekker 454 5.7% 31.5% .132 .316 .225 .277 .357 .280 Josh Satin 536 10.6% 26.1% .121 .325 .245 .328 .366 .309 Andrew Brown 448 8.0% 28.3% .174 .289 .228 .293 .402 .302 Josh Rodriguez 489 8.0% 24.3% .099 .294 .228 .292 .327 .274 Omar Quintanilla 381 8.4% 20.5% .091 .285 .231 .298 .322 .269 Landon Powell 162 9.3% 26.5% .090 .263 .200 .280 .290 .255 Reese Havens 226 9.7% 34.1% .124 .292 .199 .283 .323 .274 Taylor Teagarden 143 6.3% 37.1% .137 .280 .189 .246 .326 .253 Brandon Allen 452 9.5% 28.5% .164 .273 .213 .290 .377 .294 Allan Dykstra 445 13.5% 36.6% .141 .305 .199 .317 .340 .298 Rick Ankiel 221 7.2% 33.5% .162 .295 .212 .273 .374 .280 Jamie Hoffmann 467 5.8% 20.8% .121 .276 .231 .281 .352 .280 Rhyne Hughes 300 6.7% 35.3% .145 .311 .214 .270 .359 .277 Brian Bixler 330 6.4% 30.0% .073 .294 .206 .263 .279 .242 Cory Vaughn 458 7.6% 31.9% .129 .285 .204 .282 .333 .278 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp David Wright 550 6.4 130 1 4.4 Bob Elliott Chris Young 461 4.7 104 5 2.7 Dave Henderson Curtis Granderson 474 5.1 113 -4 2.4 David Dellucci Juan Lagares 564 3.8 82 10 2.0 Alexis Rios Daniel Murphy 576 5.0 102 -8 1.8 Todd Walker Wilfredo Tovar 533 3.5 79 5 1.7 Tim Foli Travis d’Arnaud 336 4.3 95 -1 1.6 Ryan Doumit Cesar Puello 392 4.9 102 3 1.6 Sixto Lezcano Ruben Tejada 572 3.6 79 1 1.5 David Lamb Wilmer Flores 598 4.4 97 -5 1.5 Michael Barrett Ike Davis 445 4.9 111 2 1.4 Pat Dodson Juan Centeno 301 3.3 70 4 1.1 Orlando Sanchez Kirk Nieuwenhuis 393 3.8 87 0 1.0 Duane Walker Anthony Recker 287 3.9 90 -3 1.0 Steve Yeager Eric Young 460 4.3 83 3 0.9 Randy Winn Zach Lutz 399 3.8 87 -3 0.7 Roy Smalley Justin Turner 336 4.4 94 -4 0.7 Terry Tiffee Lucas Duda 522 4.9 109 -11 0.7 Chris Duncan Matt den Dekker 454 3.5 77 0 0.6 Herm Winningham Josh Satin 536 4.2 95 0 0.5 Chris Shelton Andrew Brown 448 4.1 93 -2 0.4 Larry Littleton Josh Rodriguez 489 3.2 74 -1 0.3 Adam Morrissey Omar Quintanilla 381 3.3 75 -3 0.3 Brian Guinn Landon Powell 162 2.7 61 0 0.1 Jayhawk Owens Reese Havens 226 3.0 70 0 0.1 Ryan Owens Taylor Teagarden 143 2.7 60 -2 0.0 Jayhawk Owens Brandon Allen 452 3.8 86 0 -0.1 Nate Murphy Allan Dykstra 445 3.6 85 -1 -0.1 Josh Whitesell Rick Ankiel 221 3.4 80 -1 -0.2 Dann Howitt Jamie Hoffmann 467 3.6 77 -4 -0.6 Chip Childress Rhyne Hughes 300 3.3 75 -1 -0.6 Doug Deeds Brian Bixler 330 2.5 53 -2 -0.7 Damon Buford Cory Vaughn 458 3.2 73 -4 -0.8 Mark Davidson *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Matt Harvey R 25 28 28 164.3 167 49 12 140 59 55 Zack Wheeler R 24 30 30 166.7 151 66 15 154 72 67 Bartolo Colon R 41 24 24 147.7 97 24 14 155 63 59 Jon Niese L 27 27 27 161.7 121 49 14 161 73 68 Rafael Montero R 23 25 25 138.7 110 33 14 134 62 58 Noah Syndergaard R 21 27 24 117.0 114 39 12 108 50 47 Dillon Gee R 28 26 25 156.3 115 44 18 158 76 71 Carlos Torres R 31 41 17 128.3 102 43 16 124 63 59 Jacob deGrom R 26 23 23 127.0 81 40 12 133 65 61 Bobby Parnell R 29 59 0 56.7 50 16 4 51 21 20 Jack Leathersich L 23 47 0 66.0 85 42 5 51 27 25 Jenrry Mejia R 24 21 13 74.7 53 29 7 77 37 35 Jeremy Hefner R 28 27 22 134.3 94 38 17 141 71 66 Aaron Harang R 36 24 24 137.3 103 48 17 140 73 68 Cory Mazzoni R 24 20 19 105.3 72 33 13 109 56 52 Jeff Walters R 26 49 0 56.3 46 18 5 53 24 22 Scott Atchison R 38 44 0 43.3 31 10 4 42 18 17 Vic Black R 26 56 0 61.7 68 32 5 52 27 25 Johan Santana L 35 9 9 44.7 37 15 6 45 24 22 Jeurys Familia R 24 21 11 60.3 50 31 7 60 32 30 Steven Matz L 23 17 17 76.0 62 42 9 75 42 39 Logan Verrett R 24 22 22 125.7 96 27 21 132 70 65 Erik Goeddel R 25 23 22 112.0 85 51 13 115 62 58 Pedro Feliciano L 37 29 0 20.0 16 7 2 19 10 9 Tim Byrdak L 40 35 0 21.3 20 13 2 19 11 10 Frank Francisco R 34 34 0 30.7 31 13 3 28 15 14 Scott Rice L 32 55 0 49.3 36 24 4 47 24 22 Gonzalez Germen R 26 65 0 79.7 69 28 9 77 39 36 Sean Henn L 33 38 0 46.7 34 28 3 45 24 22 Justin Hampson L 34 55 0 60.0 41 27 5 61 31 29 Daryl Thompson R 28 11 10 51.7 37 25 7 56 32 30 Matt Fox R 31 18 16 84.7 50 29 12 93 50 47 Josh Edgin L 27 58 0 57.0 49 27 6 55 30 28 David Aardsma R 32 31 0 31.0 27 17 4 30 18 17 Daisuke Matsuzaka R 33 20 19 93.7 70 47 13 97 58 54 Ryan Reid R 29 45 0 61.7 45 30 8 63 35 33 Robert Carson L 25 59 0 66.0 44 28 8 68 37 35 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Matt Harvey 164.3 682 24.5% 7.2% .286 3.01 3.07 82 84 Zack Wheeler 166.7 720 21.0% 9.2% .290 3.62 3.80 99 104 Bartolo Colon 147.7 622 15.6% 3.9% .289 3.60 3.54 98 97 Jon Niese 161.7 695 17.4% 7.0% .290 3.79 3.74 104 102 Rafael Montero 138.7 583 18.9% 5.7% .287 3.76 3.76 103 103 Noah Syndergaard 117.0 498 22.9% 7.8% .294 3.62 3.71 99 102 Dillon Gee 156.3 671 17.1% 6.6% .288 4.09 4.15 112 114 Carlos Torres 128.3 552 18.5% 7.8% .282 4.14 4.35 113 119 Jacob deGrom 127.0 554 14.6% 7.2% .293 4.32 4.19 118 115 Bobby Parnell 56.7 237 21.1% 6.7% .283 3.18 3.04 87 83 Jack Leathersich 66.0 291 29.2% 14.4% .295 3.41 3.56 93 97 Jenrry Mejia 74.7 330 16.1% 8.8% .294 4.22 4.23 115 116 Jeremy Hefner 134.3 582 16.2% 6.5% .290 4.42 4.33 121 118 Aaron Harang 137.3 600 17.2% 8.0% .287 4.46 4.31 122 118 Cory Mazzoni 105.3 458 15.7% 7.2% .287 4.44 4.47 121 122 Jeff Walters 56.3 240 19.2% 7.5% .288 3.51 3.79 96 104 Scott Atchison 43.3 182 17.0% 5.5% .278 3.53 3.54 97 97 Vic Black 61.7 269 25.3% 11.9% .294 3.65 3.65 100 100 Johan Santana 44.7 194 19.1% 7.7% .287 4.43 4.25 121 116 Jeurys Familia 60.3 272 18.4% 11.4% .293 4.48 4.64 122 127 Steven Matz 76.0 345 18.0% 12.2% .292 4.62 4.95 126 135 Logan Verrett 125.7 536 17.9% 5.0% .288 4.66 4.61 127 126 Erik Goeddel 112.0 502 16.9% 10.2% .294 4.66 4.64 127 127 Pedro Feliciano 20.0 86 18.6% 8.1% .283 4.05 3.90 111 107 Tim Byrdak 21.3 96 20.9% 13.6% .284 4.22 4.18 115 114 Frank Francisco 30.7 133 23.3% 9.8% .290 4.11 3.57 112 98 Scott Rice 49.3 219 16.4% 11.0% .283 4.01 4.27 110 117 Gonzalez Germen 79.7 344 20.1% 8.1% .289 4.07 4.02 111 110 Sean Henn 46.7 213 16.0% 13.1% .289 4.24 4.39 116 120 Justin Hampson 60.0 268 15.3% 10.1% .293 4.35 4.37 119 119 Daryl Thompson 51.7 236 15.7% 10.6% .299 5.23 5.10 143 140 Matt Fox 84.7 376 13.3% 7.7% .289 5.00 5.02 137 137 Josh Edgin 57.0 253 19.4% 10.7% .293 4.42 4.33 121 118 David Aardsma 31.0 140 19.3% 12.1% .292 4.94 4.63 135 127 Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 425 16.5% 11.1% .292 5.19 5.19 142 142 Ryan Reid 61.7 278 16.2% 10.8% .289 4.82 5.03 132 138 Robert Carson 66.0 294 15.0% 9.5% .286 4.77 4.76 130 130 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Matt Harvey 164.3 9.15 2.68 0.66 121 3.2 Bob Welch Zack Wheeler 166.7 8.15 3.56 0.81 100 2.1 Matt Clement Bartolo Colon 147.7 5.91 1.46 0.85 101 1.9 Freddie Fitzsimmons Jon Niese 161.7 6.73 2.73 0.78 96 1.7 Steve Trout Rafael Montero 138.7 7.14 2.14 0.91 96 1.5 Joe Blanton Noah Syndergaard 117.0 8.77 3.00 0.92 100 1.4 Paul Wilson Dillon Gee 156.3 6.62 2.53 1.04 89 1.0 Bill Laskey Carlos Torres 128.3 7.16 3.02 1.12 88 0.5 Geremi Gonzalez Jacob deGrom 127.0 5.74 2.83 0.85 84 0.5 Cha-Seung Baek Bobby Parnell 56.7 7.94 2.54 0.63 114 0.5 Donnie Moore Jack Leathersich 66.0 11.59 5.73 0.68 107 0.4 Dennys Reyes Jenrry Mejia 74.7 6.39 3.49 0.84 86 0.3 C.J. Wilson Jeremy Hefner 134.3 6.30 2.55 1.14 82 0.3 Larry Luebbers Aaron Harang 137.3 6.75 3.15 1.11 81 0.3 Bobby Witt Cory Mazzoni 105.3 6.15 2.82 1.11 82 0.2 Jonathan Johnson Jeff Walters 56.3 7.35 2.88 0.80 103 0.2 Erik Bennett Scott Atchison 43.3 6.44 2.08 0.83 103 0.2 Dave Pavlas Vic Black 61.7 9.92 4.67 0.73 100 0.2 Brad Voyles Johan Santana 44.7 7.45 3.02 1.21 82 0.1 Shawn Estes Jeurys Familia 60.3 7.46 4.63 1.04 81 0.0 David Cone Steven Matz 76.0 7.34 4.97 1.07 79 0.0 Dan Chergey Logan Verrett 125.7 6.87 1.93 1.50 78 0.0 Mark DiFelice Erik Goeddel 112.0 6.83 4.10 1.04 78 0.0 J.D. Durbin Pedro Feliciano 20.0 7.20 3.15 0.90 90 0.0 Lee Guetterman Tim Byrdak 21.3 8.45 5.49 0.85 86 -0.1 Mike Stanton Frank Francisco 30.7 9.09 3.81 0.88 88 -0.1 Ricky Bottalico Scott Rice 49.3 6.57 4.38 0.73 90 -0.1 Sean Fesh Gonzalez Germen 79.7 7.79 3.16 1.02 89 -0.2 Jose Capellan Sean Henn 46.7 6.55 5.40 0.58 86 -0.2 Marshall Bridges Justin Hampson 60.0 6.15 4.05 0.75 83 -0.4 Mike Venafro Daryl Thompson 51.7 6.44 4.35 1.22 69 -0.4 Jamie Brewington Matt Fox 84.7 5.31 3.08 1.28 73 -0.4 Bob Milacki Josh Edgin 57.0 7.74 4.26 0.95 82 -0.4 Kevin Tolar David Aardsma 31.0 7.84 4.94 1.16 74 -0.4 Pete Walker Daisuke Matsuzaka 93.7 6.72 4.51 1.25 70 -0.6 Erik Hanson Ryan Reid 61.7 6.56 4.38 1.17 75 -0.7 Marty McLeary Robert Carson 66.0 6.00 3.82 1.09 76 -0.7 Kevin Ohme *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR. We hoped you liked reading 2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets by Carson Cistulli! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. 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