2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
A commitment of four years and $60 million was required to sign outfielder Curtis Granderson this offseason, while just one year and $7.25 million were sufficient for other outfielder Chris Young. Equally valuable, is more or less how ZiPS regards the pair, who are entering their age-33 and -30 seasons, respectively. Projected to save five runs as a center fielder, Young might reasonably be considered a candidate to save something like 10-15 runs given a full season in right field for New York.

It’s not unthinkable that certain readers will take exception to David Wright’s projection of 4.4 zWAR, after the last two seasons recorded by that handsome Face of the Franchise. “Ridiculous,” one might say. “Pffft,” another is likely to add, probably covering his monitor in saliva at the same time. While unqualified to comment at length about Dan Szymborski’s precise methodology, the present author understands enough about these projections, generally, to know that some combination of BABIP regression, aging curve, and Wright’s decidedly less impressive 2011 campaign are likely the main influences here.

Pitchers
Mets supporters with a sensitive disposition might want to avoid inspecting the pitching projections for their club below — mostly, that is, because heroic and tragic Matt Harvey’s name appears atop everyone else’s. ZiPS doesn’t know that he’s likely to miss all of 2014, just that he recorded a total of 178.1 innings in 2013 and was excellent while so doing.

More than has been the case with other clubs in this ongoing release of ZiPS, it’s the case with the Mets that the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation aren’t necessarily the five considered most qualified by Dan Szymborski’s computer math. Ranked solely by projected WAR, both Rafael Montero (1.5 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (1.4 zWAR) would merit a place in the opening-day rotation.

Bench/Prospects
The defensively homeless Lucas Duda has recorded no fewer than 347 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons — which is to say that, despite his absence from the depth-chart graphic below, he’s likely to play some part in the Mets 2014 campaign. In addition to the optimistic pitching projections for Montero and Syndergaard, the Metropolitans also appear to feature a few young field players with equally promising forecasts. Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores, and Cesar Puello are all projected to produce baseball wins at something approximating a league-average rate.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
David Wright	R	31	3B	550	72	133	27	4	19	74	17	5
Chris Young	R	30	CF	461	56	95	24	2	16	54	13	5
Curtis Granderson	L	33	CF	474	68	98	16	5	20	54	11	4
Juan Lagares	R	25	CF	564	56	134	24	7	6	53	13	7
Daniel Murphy	L	29	2B	576	71	152	32	3	9	70	14	3
Wilfredo Tovar	R	22	SS	533	60	123	20	4	4	45	11	8
Travis d’Arnaud	R	25	C	336	34	75	16	1	9	39	1	1
Cesar Puello	R	23	RF	392	52	91	17	3	11	51	19	6
Ruben Tejada	R	24	SS	572	57	133	27	2	2	38	5	3
Wilmer Flores	R	22	2B	598	71	146	31	4	14	79	2	3
Ike Davis	L	27	1B	445	55	89	20	0	18	62	2	1
Juan Centeno	L	24	C	301	28	71	10	2	0	22	2	1
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	L	26	CF	393	50	78	16	2	11	39	6	3
Anthony Recker	R	30	C	287	32	58	13	1	9	34	2	2
Eric Young	B	29	LF	460	56	101	19	6	2	26	32	6
Zach Lutz	R	28	3B	399	45	81	16	2	10	43	0	1
Justin Turner	R	29	3B	336	31	81	19	2	4	31	2	1
Lucas Duda	L	28	LF	522	58	108	22	1	18	61	1	1
Matt den Dekker	L	26	CF	454	50	94	16	6	9	48	13	5
Josh Satin	R	29	1B	536	58	116	25	1	10	50	2	3
Andrew Brown	R	29	RF	448	49	92	19	3	15	59	2	2
Josh Rodriguez	R	29	3B	489	51	101	19	2	7	44	4	4
Omar Quintanilla	L	32	SS	381	38	79	13	3	4	31	2	2
Landon Powell	B	32	C	162	17	29	4	0	3	13	0	0
Reese Havens	L	27	3B	226	22	40	8	1	5	19	1	1
Taylor Teagarden	R	30	C	143	11	25	4	1	4	14	0	0
Brandon Allen	L	28	1B	452	50	86	18	3	14	54	5	1
Allan Dykstra	L	27	1B	445	45	75	14	0	13	48	1	1
Rick Ankiel	L	34	RF	221	23	43	10	1	7	24	2	2
Jamie Hoffmann	R	29	LF	467	47	100	21	2	9	49	8	2
Rhyne Hughes	L	30	1B	300	31	59	14	1	8	34	2	2
Brian Bixler	R	31	CF	330	32	62	11	1	3	22	7	3
Cory Vaughn	R	25	LF	458	44	84	14	3	11	45	10	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
David Wright	550	10.9%	19.3%	.191	.316	.276	.358	.467	.354
Chris Young	461	10.2%	22.8%	.186	.271	.232	.312	.418	.320
Curtis Granderson	474	10.5%	25.9%	.207	.284	.237	.322	.444	.333
Juan Lagares	564	4.6%	21.6%	.106	.318	.254	.291	.360	.282
Daniel Murphy	576	5.2%	12.5%	.121	.310	.282	.320	.403	.316
Wilfredo Tovar	533	5.4%	12.0%	.081	.281	.252	.301	.333	.278
Travis d’Arnaud	336	7.4%	24.1%	.147	.303	.245	.307	.392	.306
Cesar Puello	392	4.3%	28.1%	.156	.335	.253	.314	.409	.324
Ruben Tejada	572	6.1%	13.6%	.071	.295	.255	.309	.326	.281
Wilmer Flores	598	4.7%	15.4%	.146	.288	.263	.297	.409	.305
Ike Davis	445	12.8%	26.3%	.192	.282	.232	.330	.424	.328
Juan Centeno	301	4.7%	15.6%	.051	.306	.257	.295	.308	.264
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	393	8.9%	30.8%	.151	.303	.222	.295	.373	.293
Anthony Recker	287	8.4%	27.9%	.163	.287	.225	.294	.388	.296
Eric Young	460	8.3%	17.6%	.091	.301	.246	.313	.337	.296
Zach Lutz	399	9.0%	30.1%	.140	.310	.228	.302	.368	.296
Justin Turner	336	6.0%	14.0%	.113	.297	.262	.316	.375	.304
Lucas Duda	522	11.5%	25.3%	.173	.295	.239	.335	.412	.328
Matt den Dekker	454	5.7%	31.5%	.132	.316	.225	.277	.357	.280
Josh Satin	536	10.6%	26.1%	.121	.325	.245	.328	.366	.309
Andrew Brown	448	8.0%	28.3%	.174	.289	.228	.293	.402	.302
Josh Rodriguez	489	8.0%	24.3%	.099	.294	.228	.292	.327	.274
Omar Quintanilla	381	8.4%	20.5%	.091	.285	.231	.298	.322	.269
Landon Powell	162	9.3%	26.5%	.090	.263	.200	.280	.290	.255
Reese Havens	226	9.7%	34.1%	.124	.292	.199	.283	.323	.274
Taylor Teagarden	143	6.3%	37.1%	.137	.280	.189	.246	.326	.253
Brandon Allen	452	9.5%	28.5%	.164	.273	.213	.290	.377	.294
Allan Dykstra	445	13.5%	36.6%	.141	.305	.199	.317	.340	.298
Rick Ankiel	221	7.2%	33.5%	.162	.295	.212	.273	.374	.280
Jamie Hoffmann	467	5.8%	20.8%	.121	.276	.231	.281	.352	.280
Rhyne Hughes	300	6.7%	35.3%	.145	.311	.214	.270	.359	.277
Brian Bixler	330	6.4%	30.0%	.073	.294	.206	.263	.279	.242
Cory Vaughn	458	7.6%	31.9%	.129	.285	.204	.282	.333	.278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
David Wright	550	6.4	130	1	4.4	Bob Elliott
Chris Young	461	4.7	104	5	2.7	Dave Henderson
Curtis Granderson	474	5.1	113	-4	2.4	David Dellucci
Juan Lagares	564	3.8	82	10	2.0	Alexis Rios
Daniel Murphy	576	5.0	102	-8	1.8	Todd Walker
Wilfredo Tovar	533	3.5	79	5	1.7	Tim Foli
Travis d’Arnaud	336	4.3	95	-1	1.6	Ryan Doumit
Cesar Puello	392	4.9	102	3	1.6	Sixto Lezcano
Ruben Tejada	572	3.6	79	1	1.5	David Lamb
Wilmer Flores	598	4.4	97	-5	1.5	Michael Barrett
Ike Davis	445	4.9	111	2	1.4	Pat Dodson
Juan Centeno	301	3.3	70	4	1.1	Orlando Sanchez
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	393	3.8	87	0	1.0	Duane Walker
Anthony Recker	287	3.9	90	-3	1.0	Steve Yeager
Eric Young	460	4.3	83	3	0.9	Randy Winn
Zach Lutz	399	3.8	87	-3	0.7	Roy Smalley
Justin Turner	336	4.4	94	-4	0.7	Terry Tiffee
Lucas Duda	522	4.9	109	-11	0.7	Chris Duncan
Matt den Dekker	454	3.5	77	0	0.6	Herm Winningham
Josh Satin	536	4.2	95	0	0.5	Chris Shelton
Andrew Brown	448	4.1	93	-2	0.4	Larry Littleton
Josh Rodriguez	489	3.2	74	-1	0.3	Adam Morrissey
Omar Quintanilla	381	3.3	75	-3	0.3	Brian Guinn
Landon Powell	162	2.7	61	0	0.1	Jayhawk Owens
Reese Havens	226	3.0	70	0	0.1	Ryan Owens
Taylor Teagarden	143	2.7	60	-2	0.0	Jayhawk Owens
Brandon Allen	452	3.8	86	0	-0.1	Nate Murphy
Allan Dykstra	445	3.6	85	-1	-0.1	Josh Whitesell
Rick Ankiel	221	3.4	80	-1	-0.2	Dann Howitt
Jamie Hoffmann	467	3.6	77	-4	-0.6	Chip Childress
Rhyne Hughes	300	3.3	75	-1	-0.6	Doug Deeds
Brian Bixler	330	2.5	53	-2	-0.7	Damon Buford
Cory Vaughn	458	3.2	73	-4	-0.8	Mark Davidson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Matt Harvey	R	25	28	28	164.3	167	49	12	140	59	55
Zack Wheeler	R	24	30	30	166.7	151	66	15	154	72	67
Bartolo Colon	R	41	24	24	147.7	97	24	14	155	63	59
Jon Niese	L	27	27	27	161.7	121	49	14	161	73	68
Rafael Montero	R	23	25	25	138.7	110	33	14	134	62	58
Noah Syndergaard	R	21	27	24	117.0	114	39	12	108	50	47
Dillon Gee	R	28	26	25	156.3	115	44	18	158	76	71
Carlos Torres	R	31	41	17	128.3	102	43	16	124	63	59
Jacob deGrom	R	26	23	23	127.0	81	40	12	133	65	61
Bobby Parnell	R	29	59	0	56.7	50	16	4	51	21	20
Jack Leathersich	L	23	47	0	66.0	85	42	5	51	27	25
Jenrry Mejia	R	24	21	13	74.7	53	29	7	77	37	35
Jeremy Hefner	R	28	27	22	134.3	94	38	17	141	71	66
Aaron Harang	R	36	24	24	137.3	103	48	17	140	73	68
Cory Mazzoni	R	24	20	19	105.3	72	33	13	109	56	52
Jeff Walters	R	26	49	0	56.3	46	18	5	53	24	22
Scott Atchison	R	38	44	0	43.3	31	10	4	42	18	17
Vic Black	R	26	56	0	61.7	68	32	5	52	27	25
Johan Santana	L	35	9	9	44.7	37	15	6	45	24	22
Jeurys Familia	R	24	21	11	60.3	50	31	7	60	32	30
Steven Matz	L	23	17	17	76.0	62	42	9	75	42	39
Logan Verrett	R	24	22	22	125.7	96	27	21	132	70	65
Erik Goeddel	R	25	23	22	112.0	85	51	13	115	62	58
Pedro Feliciano	L	37	29	0	20.0	16	7	2	19	10	9
Tim Byrdak	L	40	35	0	21.3	20	13	2	19	11	10
Frank Francisco	R	34	34	0	30.7	31	13	3	28	15	14
Scott Rice	L	32	55	0	49.3	36	24	4	47	24	22
Gonzalez Germen	R	26	65	0	79.7	69	28	9	77	39	36
Sean Henn	L	33	38	0	46.7	34	28	3	45	24	22
Justin Hampson	L	34	55	0	60.0	41	27	5	61	31	29
Daryl Thompson	R	28	11	10	51.7	37	25	7	56	32	30
Matt Fox	R	31	18	16	84.7	50	29	12	93	50	47
Josh Edgin	L	27	58	0	57.0	49	27	6	55	30	28
David Aardsma	R	32	31	0	31.0	27	17	4	30	18	17
Daisuke Matsuzaka	R	33	20	19	93.7	70	47	13	97	58	54
Ryan Reid	R	29	45	0	61.7	45	30	8	63	35	33
Robert Carson	L	25	59	0	66.0	44	28	8	68	37	35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Matt Harvey	164.3	682	24.5%	7.2%	.286	3.01	3.07	82	84
Zack Wheeler	166.7	720	21.0%	9.2%	.290	3.62	3.80	99	104
Bartolo Colon	147.7	622	15.6%	3.9%	.289	3.60	3.54	98	97
Jon Niese	161.7	695	17.4%	7.0%	.290	3.79	3.74	104	102
Rafael Montero	138.7	583	18.9%	5.7%	.287	3.76	3.76	103	103
Noah Syndergaard	117.0	498	22.9%	7.8%	.294	3.62	3.71	99	102
Dillon Gee	156.3	671	17.1%	6.6%	.288	4.09	4.15	112	114
Carlos Torres	128.3	552	18.5%	7.8%	.282	4.14	4.35	113	119
Jacob deGrom	127.0	554	14.6%	7.2%	.293	4.32	4.19	118	115
Bobby Parnell	56.7	237	21.1%	6.7%	.283	3.18	3.04	87	83
Jack Leathersich	66.0	291	29.2%	14.4%	.295	3.41	3.56	93	97
Jenrry Mejia	74.7	330	16.1%	8.8%	.294	4.22	4.23	115	116
Jeremy Hefner	134.3	582	16.2%	6.5%	.290	4.42	4.33	121	118
Aaron Harang	137.3	600	17.2%	8.0%	.287	4.46	4.31	122	118
Cory Mazzoni	105.3	458	15.7%	7.2%	.287	4.44	4.47	121	122
Jeff Walters	56.3	240	19.2%	7.5%	.288	3.51	3.79	96	104
Scott Atchison	43.3	182	17.0%	5.5%	.278	3.53	3.54	97	97
Vic Black	61.7	269	25.3%	11.9%	.294	3.65	3.65	100	100
Johan Santana	44.7	194	19.1%	7.7%	.287	4.43	4.25	121	116
Jeurys Familia	60.3	272	18.4%	11.4%	.293	4.48	4.64	122	127
Steven Matz	76.0	345	18.0%	12.2%	.292	4.62	4.95	126	135
Logan Verrett	125.7	536	17.9%	5.0%	.288	4.66	4.61	127	126
Erik Goeddel	112.0	502	16.9%	10.2%	.294	4.66	4.64	127	127
Pedro Feliciano	20.0	86	18.6%	8.1%	.283	4.05	3.90	111	107
Tim Byrdak	21.3	96	20.9%	13.6%	.284	4.22	4.18	115	114
Frank Francisco	30.7	133	23.3%	9.8%	.290	4.11	3.57	112	98
Scott Rice	49.3	219	16.4%	11.0%	.283	4.01	4.27	110	117
Gonzalez Germen	79.7	344	20.1%	8.1%	.289	4.07	4.02	111	110
Sean Henn	46.7	213	16.0%	13.1%	.289	4.24	4.39	116	120
Justin Hampson	60.0	268	15.3%	10.1%	.293	4.35	4.37	119	119
Daryl Thompson	51.7	236	15.7%	10.6%	.299	5.23	5.10	143	140
Matt Fox	84.7	376	13.3%	7.7%	.289	5.00	5.02	137	137
Josh Edgin	57.0	253	19.4%	10.7%	.293	4.42	4.33	121	118
David Aardsma	31.0	140	19.3%	12.1%	.292	4.94	4.63	135	127
Daisuke Matsuzaka	93.7	425	16.5%	11.1%	.292	5.19	5.19	142	142
Ryan Reid	61.7	278	16.2%	10.8%	.289	4.82	5.03	132	138
Robert Carson	66.0	294	15.0%	9.5%	.286	4.77	4.76	130	130

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey	164.3	9.15	2.68	0.66	121	3.2	Bob Welch
Zack Wheeler	166.7	8.15	3.56	0.81	100	2.1	Matt Clement
Bartolo Colon	147.7	5.91	1.46	0.85	101	1.9	Freddie Fitzsimmons
Jon Niese	161.7	6.73	2.73	0.78	96	1.7	Steve Trout
Rafael Montero	138.7	7.14	2.14	0.91	96	1.5	Joe Blanton
Noah Syndergaard	117.0	8.77	3.00	0.92	100	1.4	Paul Wilson
Dillon Gee	156.3	6.62	2.53	1.04	89	1.0	Bill Laskey
Carlos Torres	128.3	7.16	3.02	1.12	88	0.5	Geremi Gonzalez
Jacob deGrom	127.0	5.74	2.83	0.85	84	0.5	Cha-Seung Baek
Bobby Parnell	56.7	7.94	2.54	0.63	114	0.5	Donnie Moore
Jack Leathersich	66.0	11.59	5.73	0.68	107	0.4	Dennys Reyes
Jenrry Mejia	74.7	6.39	3.49	0.84	86	0.3	C.J. Wilson
Jeremy Hefner	134.3	6.30	2.55	1.14	82	0.3	Larry Luebbers
Aaron Harang	137.3	6.75	3.15	1.11	81	0.3	Bobby Witt
Cory Mazzoni	105.3	6.15	2.82	1.11	82	0.2	Jonathan Johnson
Jeff Walters	56.3	7.35	2.88	0.80	103	0.2	Erik Bennett
Scott Atchison	43.3	6.44	2.08	0.83	103	0.2	Dave Pavlas
Vic Black	61.7	9.92	4.67	0.73	100	0.2	Brad Voyles
Johan Santana	44.7	7.45	3.02	1.21	82	0.1	Shawn Estes
Jeurys Familia	60.3	7.46	4.63	1.04	81	0.0	David Cone
Steven Matz	76.0	7.34	4.97	1.07	79	0.0	Dan Chergey
Logan Verrett	125.7	6.87	1.93	1.50	78	0.0	Mark DiFelice
Erik Goeddel	112.0	6.83	4.10	1.04	78	0.0	J.D. Durbin
Pedro Feliciano	20.0	7.20	3.15	0.90	90	0.0	Lee Guetterman
Tim Byrdak	21.3	8.45	5.49	0.85	86	-0.1	Mike Stanton
Frank Francisco	30.7	9.09	3.81	0.88	88	-0.1	Ricky Bottalico
Scott Rice	49.3	6.57	4.38	0.73	90	-0.1	Sean Fesh
Gonzalez Germen	79.7	7.79	3.16	1.02	89	-0.2	Jose Capellan
Sean Henn	46.7	6.55	5.40	0.58	86	-0.2	Marshall Bridges
Justin Hampson	60.0	6.15	4.05	0.75	83	-0.4	Mike Venafro
Daryl Thompson	51.7	6.44	4.35	1.22	69	-0.4	Jamie Brewington
Matt Fox	84.7	5.31	3.08	1.28	73	-0.4	Bob Milacki
Josh Edgin	57.0	7.74	4.26	0.95	82	-0.4	Kevin Tolar
David Aardsma	31.0	7.84	4.94	1.16	74	-0.4	Pete Walker
Daisuke Matsuzaka	93.7	6.72	4.51	1.25	70	-0.6	Erik Hanson
Ryan Reid	61.7	6.56	4.38	1.17	75	-0.7	Marty McLeary
Robert Carson	66.0	6.00	3.82	1.09	76	-0.7	Kevin Ohme

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.