2014 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
It’s the ambition of the author, in the composition of these ZiPS posts, first to do no harm. For that reason, I’ll abstain from a prolonged discussion of Alex Rodriguez and/or The Alex Rodriguez Saga. The present state of affairs — at least with regard to how it affects the New York Yankees — appears to be thus:

1. Alex Rodriguez is appealing a very long suspension currently; and

2. The Yankees have signed Kelly Johnson; and

3. The Yankees, more recently, have signed Brian Roberts.

That’s three infielders, two of them injury-prone, for two positions. Johnson and Rodriguez are about equally valuable on a rate basis according to ZiPS, it looks like, while Roberts is closer to replacement level. That is all we will speak of that, for the moment.

Elsewhere, one finds both that (a) the WAR totals for the Yankees field players are sometimes low-ish and that (b) those same WAR totals are frequently low-ish (when they’re low-ish) because the playing-time projections are also low-ish. Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Mark Teixeira: none of them are projected to reach even 500 plate appearances, for example. Also for example, each of them is considered the starter at his respective position.

Pitchers
One presumes that, given their aggressiveness thus far in the free-agent market, that the Yankees have ambitions of qualifying for the postseason in 2014. One also presumes, given the projections published here, that the Yankees might require the assistance of one or two more starting pitchers to realize those ambitions. A recent report from the Associated Press suggests that Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is eyeing major-league baseball. The Yankees are eyeing him back, likely. Otherwise, who’s available? Matt Garza, it appears. Ubaldo Jimenez. Ervin Santana. Or someone via trade, of course.

Bench/Prospects
Years from now, the 2013-14 offseason won’t be remembered as the one in which Robinson Cano signed a giant contract with the Seattle Mariners or in which Masahiro Tanaka either did or didn’t notably arrive stateside. Rather, it will be remembered for how the Yankees acquired, via trade, superstar Dean Anna for almost nothing — or, if not superstar Dean Anna, then at least generally competent Dean Anna. A member of the Padres organization for the duration of his professional career, Anna is projected to record a WAR at least four times higher than either of the players currently expected to start at shortstop or second base for the Yankees. “A revelation,” is how he’ll be described in newspaper articles and private diaries at some point in the not-distant future.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	30	CF	546	73	143	26	4	14	52	32	6
Brian McCann	L	30	C	474	50	108	15	0	22	71	2	1
Brett Gardner	L	30	CF	463	64	105	20	7	6	36	23	7
Alfonso Soriano	R	38	LF	569	75	130	27	1	32	103	12	6
Mark Teixeira	B	34	1B	356	45	76	15	0	17	70	1	1
Carlos Beltran	B	37	RF	548	67	132	23	2	26	80	5	3
Dean Anna	L	27	2B	513	68	108	22	3	8	49	3	3
J.R. Murphy	R	23	C	500	57	110	25	1	14	50	2	2
Gary Sanchez	R	21	C	513	56	110	23	1	19	63	6	3
Kelly Johnson	L	32	2B	503	56	103	17	3	18	56	10	4
Kevin Youkilis	R	35	3B	319	41	66	14	1	12	36	1	0
Yamaico Navarro	R	26	SS	429	47	93	17	2	8	42	8	4
Brendan Ryan	R	32	SS	425	47	86	18	2	4	35	8	3
Alex Rodriguez	R	38	3B	317	38	66	10	0	11	33	6	2
Zelous Wheeler	R	27	3B	469	47	103	19	1	10	44	4	1
Luis Cruz	R	30	3B	395	39	93	19	1	7	48	2	2
Vernon Wells	R	35	LF	419	50	98	17	1	16	55	5	3
Corban Joseph	L	25	2B	438	50	93	21	3	10	42	2	2
Slade Heathcott	L	23	CF	418	45	89	18	4	9	39	13	7
Austin Romine	R	25	C	283	31	63	12	0	5	27	1	0
Francisco Cervelli	R	28	C	212	22	43	7	1	3	20	2	0
Travis Hafner	L	37	DH	262	28	52	7	2	11	38	1	0
Melky Mesa	R	27	CF	454	51	92	18	3	17	51	13	6
Mark Reynolds	R	30	1B	532	68	102	19	0	27	81	3	3
Eduardo Nunez	R	27	SS	385	43	92	16	3	5	33	19	5
Fernando Martinez	L	25	RF	363	40	79	16	1	13	42	1	1
David Adams	R	27	3B	357	35	78	17	1	6	34	2	2
Derek Jeter	R	40	SS	325	39	76	12	1	5	25	7	3
Ichiro Suzuki	L	40	RF	546	64	141	20	4	8	43	20	5
Brian Roberts	B	36	2B	215	21	48	9	1	4	25	3	1
Antoan Richardson	B	30	CF	447	53	84	10	3	1	23	19	5
Josh Bell	B	27	3B	394	43	78	14	1	12	43	2	2
Brennan Boesch	L	29	RF	340	38	78	16	2	10	39	4	2
Tyler Austin	R	22	RF	446	49	96	21	3	11	47	9	3
Mason Williams	L	22	CF	516	52	112	21	3	9	40	14	13
Jayson Nix	R	31	SS	313	31	61	12	1	6	28	8	2
Randy Ruiz	R	36	1B	258	30	56	9	0	11	27	1	1
Russ Canzler	R	28	1B	562	60	119	24	2	16	60	3	2
Lyle Overbay	L	37	1B	330	30	71	17	1	8	36	1	0
Zoilo Almonte	B	25	LF	485	48	106	19	2	14	55	9	4
Corey Patterson	L	34	CF	338	33	69	13	1	7	28	10	4
Ramon Flores	L	22	LF	631	65	137	25	4	9	50	10	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jacoby Ellsbury	546	7.1%	13.9%	.152	.313	.286	.341	.438	.347
Brian McCann	474	10.3%	18.1%	.193	.275	.258	.340	.451	.338
Brett Gardner	463	9.5%	18.6%	.128	.314	.259	.339	.388	.322
Alfonso Soriano	569	6.0%	27.6%	.237	.287	.247	.297	.484	.335
Mark Teixeira	356	11.2%	18.5%	.216	.259	.248	.340	.464	.347
Carlos Beltran	548	8.4%	19.2%	.212	.287	.267	.327	.479	.342
Dean Anna	513	9.4%	17.3%	.116	.279	.240	.321	.356	.300
J.R. Murphy	500	7.2%	18.6%	.151	.272	.241	.299	.393	.303
Gary Sanchez	513	5.7%	25.7%	.173	.278	.232	.283	.404	.301
Kelly Johnson	503	10.1%	26.6%	.173	.289	.232	.315	.405	.316
Kevin Youkilis	319	10.7%	21.3%	.190	.277	.242	.345	.432	.341
Yamaico Navarro	429	8.6%	19.8%	.117	.287	.242	.308	.358	.297
Brendan Ryan	425	7.3%	19.1%	.089	.275	.226	.289	.316	.267
Alex Rodriguez	317	9.8%	24.9%	.154	.288	.237	.322	.391	.315
Zelous Wheeler	469	7.2%	19.8%	.120	.288	.243	.310	.363	.300
Luis Cruz	395	3.0%	14.9%	.112	.276	.247	.275	.359	.275
Vernon Wells	419	5.7%	15.5%	.171	.262	.251	.294	.422	.311
Corban Joseph	438	8.7%	21.0%	.145	.282	.236	.305	.381	.300
Slade Heathcott	418	6.2%	28.5%	.138	.310	.232	.286	.370	.288
Austin Romine	283	6.4%	21.6%	.103	.294	.241	.291	.345	.282
Francisco Cervelli	212	8.5%	21.2%	.097	.288	.232	.314	.330	.291
Travis Hafner	262	10.7%	24.0%	.194	.266	.229	.328	.423	.329
Melky Mesa	454	4.8%	34.6%	.177	.298	.217	.264	.394	.289
Mark Reynolds	532	12.4%	31.8%	.219	.284	.223	.327	.442	.336
Eduardo Nunez	385	5.7%	14.0%	.105	.291	.260	.304	.364	.296
Fernando Martinez	363	5.5%	27.0%	.172	.295	.238	.293	.410	.305
David Adams	357	7.0%	21.0%	.115	.295	.241	.306	.356	.294
Derek Jeter	325	7.7%	14.5%	.099	.292	.259	.322	.357	.301
Ichiro Suzuki	546	3.7%	10.3%	.101	.292	.273	.299	.373	.292
Brian Roberts	215	7.9%	16.3%	.118	.278	.246	.304	.364	.296
Antoan Richardson	447	10.3%	23.0%	.050	.296	.220	.315	.270	.271
Josh Bell	394	7.6%	30.2%	.145	.284	.217	.277	.362	.280
Brennan Boesch	340	6.8%	20.9%	.160	.292	.250	.306	.410	.313
Tyler Austin	446	7.6%	25.8%	.147	.300	.236	.298	.383	.301
Mason Williams	516	5.0%	17.8%	.113	.272	.235	.276	.348	.267
Jayson Nix	313	7.0%	27.2%	.114	.288	.218	.285	.332	.274
Randy Ruiz	258	4.7%	31.0%	.173	.294	.230	.271	.403	.295
Russ Canzler	562	8.2%	26.3%	.149	.295	.234	.299	.383	.300
Lyle Overbay	330	7.6%	23.9%	.142	.289	.235	.291	.377	.293
Zoilo Almonte	485	6.2%	25.4%	.144	.291	.236	.285	.380	.292
Corey Patterson	338	3.6%	23.4%	.113	.266	.217	.249	.330	.251
Ramon Flores	631	7.4%	19.0%	.104	.284	.238	.297	.343	.284

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jacoby Ellsbury	546	6.1	110	7	4.1	Sam West
Brian McCann	474	5.6	113	-2	3.2	Ed Bailey
Brett Gardner	463	5.0	97	3	2.3	Ed Stroud
Alfonso Soriano	569	5.2	107	2	2.0	Phil Hiatt
Mark Teixeira	356	5.6	116	5	1.7	Roy Smalley
Carlos Beltran	548	5.7	115	-5	1.7	Bobby Bonilla
Dean Anna	513	4.0	84	5	1.6	Ed Giovanola
J.R. Murphy	500	4.1	86	-4	1.6	Henry Blanco
Gary Sanchez	513	4.0	84	-4	1.6	Tim Laker
Kelly Johnson	503	4.5	94	-3	1.5	Jed Hansen
Kevin Youkilis	319	5.3	110	-3	1.4	Jay Bell
Yamaico Navarro	429	3.9	81	1	1.2	Ronnie Merrill
Brendan Ryan	425	3.2	65	8	1.1	Rabbit Warstler
Alex Rodriguez	317	4.5	93	-1	1.0	Dick Bartell
Zelous Wheeler	469	4.1	82	-2	0.8	Gary Scott
Luis Cruz	395	3.5	71	7	0.7	Kevin Baez
Vernon Wells	419	4.4	91	2	0.7	Chad Mottola
Corban Joseph	438	4.1	85	-2	0.7	Boi Rodriguez
Slade Heathcott	418	3.7	77	2	0.6	Lloyd Moseby
Austin Romine	283	3.6	72	-1	0.6	Jason Hill
Francisco Cervelli	212	3.8	76	-1	0.5	Dennis Anderson
Travis Hafner	262	4.9	102	0	0.5	Harmon Killebrew
Melky Mesa	454	3.6	76	1	0.5	Pat Keedy
Mark Reynolds	532	5.0	106	-7	0.5	Chris Cron
Eduardo Nunez	385	4.3	81	-6	0.5	Eddy Garabito
Fernando Martinez	363	4.2	88	2	0.5	Justin Huber
David Adams	357	3.8	79	-1	0.5	Ryan Hankins
Derek Jeter	325	4.2	85	-5	0.4	Tony Graffanino
Ichiro Suzuki	546	4.4	82	3	0.3	Tony Womack
Brian Roberts	215	4.0	81	-2	0.2	Rene Gonzales
Antoan Richardson	447	3.2	61	-1	0.1	Jeff Duncan
Josh Bell	394	3.4	72	-1	0.0	Mike Groppuso
Brennan Boesch	340	4.5	92	-5	0.0	Roy Johnson
Tyler Austin	446	4.1	84	-2	0.0	Pat Tabler
Mason Williams	516	3.1	68	2	-0.1	Torii Hunter
Jayson Nix	313	3.4	67	-4	-0.1	Dave Matranga
Randy Ruiz	258	3.8	80	-1	-0.3	Willie Horton
Russ Canzler	562	4.0	84	-1	-0.3	Thomas Hubbard
Lyle Overbay	330	3.9	80	0	-0.4	Willie Horton
Zoilo Almonte	485	3.8	79	-2	-0.4	Mike Diaz
Corey Patterson	338	2.9	56	0	-0.6	Thomas Johnson
Ramon Flores	631	3.5	73	-3	-1.0	Rafael DeLima

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Hiroki Kuroda	R	39	28	28	178.0	135	42	21	177	79	74
CC Sabathia	L	33	29	29	196.3	180	53	23	196	94	88
Ivan Nova	R	27	28	26	165.0	124	53	16	167	78	73
Andy Pettitte	L	42	21	21	126.7	95	35	15	132	63	59
David Robertson	R	29	67	0	63.0	85	22	6	48	20	19
David Phelps	R	27	26	15	101.7	92	38	14	101	55	51
Michael Pineda	R	25	16	16	81.3	75	30	12	80	45	42
Mariano Rivera	R	44	36	0	35.0	31	7	4	34	15	14
Shawn Kelley	R	30	50	0	48.7	57	19	6	44	22	21
Matt Thornton	L	37	57	0	47.7	40	14	5	48	22	21
Preston Claiborne	R	26	55	0	63.0	53	19	8	64	32	30
Vidal Nuno	L	26	18	12	71.0	52	19	13	79	44	41
Adam Warren	R	26	43	2	77.7	63	32	11	81	43	40
Brian Gordon	R	35	46	0	54.3	38	12	7	60	30	28
Manny Banuelos	L	23	7	7	28.0	24	14	5	31	19	18
Joba Chamberlain	R	28	38	0	37.7	35	16	6	38	21	20
Yoshinori Tateyama	R	38	39	0	56.7	45	17	9	61	33	31
Mark Montgomery	R	23	35	0	46.3	50	33	7	44	28	26
Jose Campos	R	21	20	15	65.7	42	22	12	78	45	42
Cesar Cabral	L	25	34	0	43.3	37	26	5	45	27	25
Nik Turley	L	24	25	24	119.7	98	70	20	128	81	76
Sam Demel	R	28	45	0	50.7	44	29	9	53	33	31
Mike Zagurski	L	31	49	0	50.3	49	33	8	52	33	31
Jim Miller	R	32	49	0	62.7	58	32	12	66	41	38
Shane Greene	R	25	25	25	125.7	86	66	21	146	89	83
David Huff	L	29	31	21	129.0	79	46	24	152	91	85
Bryan Mitchell	R	23	26	25	120.3	85	86	17	136	88	82
Dellin Betances	R	26	34	16	96.7	87	84	15	102	72	67
Jose Ramirez	R	24	19	17	76.0	62	47	18	87	61	57
Brett Marshall	R	24	27	25	133.7	89	83	32	163	114	107

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Hiroki Kuroda	178.0	752	18.0%	5.5%	.283	3.74	4.12	90	99
CC Sabathia	196.3	838	21.5%	6.3%	.300	4.03	3.84	97	92
Ivan Nova	165.0	714	17.4%	7.4%	.295	3.98	4.19	96	101
Andy Pettitte	126.7	548	17.4%	6.4%	.294	4.19	4.19	101	101
David Robertson	63.0	259	32.9%	8.4%	.293	2.71	2.76	65	66
David Phelps	101.7	445	20.8%	8.6%	.296	4.51	4.56	108	110
Michael Pineda	81.3	355	21.1%	8.5%	.291	4.65	4.62	112	111
Mariano Rivera	35.0	146	21.3%	4.8%	.289	3.60	3.54	87	85
Shawn Kelley	48.7	208	27.2%	9.0%	.297	3.88	3.72	93	89
Matt Thornton	47.7	205	19.5%	6.8%	.298	3.97	3.90	95	94
Preston Claiborne	63.0	272	19.6%	7.1%	.297	4.29	4.16	103	100
Vidal Nuno	71.0	311	16.7%	6.1%	.295	5.20	5.24	125	126
Adam Warren	77.7	347	18.3%	9.3%	.297	4.64	4.74	111	114
Brian Gordon	54.3	235	16.2%	5.1%	.305	4.64	4.50	112	108
Manny Banuelos	28.0	129	18.4%	10.9%	.312	5.79	5.51	139	132
Joba Chamberlain	37.7	167	21.1%	9.6%	.299	4.78	4.72	115	113
Yoshinori Tateyama	56.7	247	18.3%	6.7%	.300	4.92	4.66	118	112
Mark Montgomery	46.3	216	23.2%	15.3%	.302	5.05	5.30	121	127
Jose Campos	65.7	297	14.1%	7.5%	.304	5.76	5.68	138	137
Cesar Cabral	43.3	201	18.4%	12.9%	.306	5.19	5.20	125	125
Nik Turley	119.7	557	17.5%	12.6%	.298	5.72	5.83	137	140
Sam Demel	50.7	234	18.9%	12.3%	.302	5.51	5.65	132	136
Mike Zagurski	50.3	235	20.9%	13.8%	.304	5.54	5.61	133	135
Jim Miller	62.7	286	20.4%	11.2%	.300	5.46	5.56	131	134
Shane Greene	125.7	589	14.6%	11.2%	.307	5.94	5.86	143	141
David Huff	129.0	585	13.6%	7.9%	.298	5.93	5.77	143	139
Bryan Mitchell	120.3	583	14.5%	14.7%	.308	6.13	6.12	147	147
Dellin Betances	96.7	476	18.4%	17.6%	.307	6.24	6.37	150	153
Jose Ramirez	76.0	361	17.2%	12.9%	.300	6.75	6.78	162	163
Brett Marshall	133.7	647	13.7%	12.8%	.301	7.20	7.15	173	172

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Hiroki Kuroda	178.0	6.84	2.11	1.08	111	3.4	Greg Maddux
CC Sabathia	196.3	8.27	2.42	1.06	103	3.1	Frank Tanana
Ivan Nova	165.0	6.77	2.86	0.87	105	2.7	Ed Wojna
Andy Pettitte	126.7	6.76	2.51	1.04	99	1.7	Kenny Rogers
David Robertson	63.0	12.17	3.11	0.79	154	1.3	Paul Shuey
David Phelps	101.7	8.18	3.40	1.24	92	0.9	Steve Farr
Michael Pineda	81.3	8.27	3.34	1.34	90	0.7	Bob Sebra
Mariano Rivera	35.0	7.96	1.78	1.01	116	0.3	Trevor Hoffman
Shawn Kelley	48.7	10.50	3.48	1.16	107	0.3	Darren Holmes
Matt Thornton	47.7	7.55	2.64	0.94	105	0.3	Buddy Groom
Preston Claiborne	63.0	7.62	2.76	1.14	97	0.1	Jose Acevedo
Vidal Nuno	71.0	6.59	2.39	1.67	80	0.1	Larry Acker
Adam Warren	77.7	7.36	3.72	1.24	90	0.0	Mike Lumley
Brian Gordon	54.3	6.30	1.99	1.16	90	-0.1	Dave Pavlas
Manny Banuelos	28.0	7.65	4.52	1.49	72	-0.2	Dave Martinez
Joba Chamberlain	37.7	8.44	3.83	1.38	87	-0.2	Derrick Turnbow
Yoshinori Tateyama	56.7	7.19	2.63	1.38	85	-0.3	Dave Pavlas
Mark Montgomery	46.3	9.73	6.40	1.29	83	-0.3	Rafael Pimentel
Jose Campos	65.7	5.73	3.06	1.64	72	-0.4	Miguel Pinango
Cesar Cabral	43.3	7.69	5.37	1.14	80	-0.4	Jeff Ridgway
Nik Turley	119.7	7.34	5.29	1.51	73	-0.6	Bob Ojeda
Sam Demel	50.7	7.88	5.12	1.55	76	-0.7	Mike James
Mike Zagurski	50.3	8.80	5.81	1.51	75	-0.7	Mark Davis
Jim Miller	62.7	8.38	4.61	1.67	76	-0.8	Bob Long
Shane Greene	125.7	6.15	4.71	1.47	70	-0.9	Chad Paronto
David Huff	129.0	5.53	3.22	1.70	70	-1.0	Huck Flener
Bryan Mitchell	120.3	6.32	6.42	1.27	68	-1.2	Brett Laxton
Dellin Betances	96.7	8.13	7.81	1.40	67	-1.2	Cal Eldred
Jose Ramirez	76.0	7.35	5.51	2.10	62	-1.3	Fernando Rijo
Brett Marshall	133.7	5.96	5.56	2.17	58	-3.1	Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.