2014 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
While not having realized the Sisyphean task of winning a World Series, GM Neal Huntington et al. have constructed a Pirates club that both (a) qualified for the playoffs in 2013 and also (b) would appear to have a reasonable chance of repeating that outcome in 2014.

If the Pirates don’t make their way to the postseason this year, it likely won’t be the fault of their field players. Per ZiPS, Andrew McCutchen is a candidate to win the 2014 MVP award after winning it in real life this last season. Beyond him is a collection of average-or-better players and also Gaby Sanchez. Combining the latter with Andrew Lambo (or maybe Jaff Decker or maybe Travis Snider) in a platoon might even render the club’s first-base position as average.

Pitchers
The reader should note that the starting pitchers on the depth-chart image below are arranged not in likely order of rotation spot, but in order of projected WAR. Were the author to have considered, also, pitchers expected to begin the season somewhere else besides the major leagues, right-hander Jameson Taillon would actually have appeared third among Pirates starters. Entering just his age-22 season, Taillon is projected to prevent runs at a league-average rate already.

Left-hander Jeff Locke outperformed his peripherals by a considerable margin last year — until August, that is, at which point things unraveled a bit. Some combination of he, Charlie Morton, and offseason acquisition Edinson Volquez will likely serve as the fourth and fifth starters — in terms of production, if not name.

Bench/Prospects
In a recent article concerning what a trade for David Price might cost a team, Dave Cameron asserted that outfielder Gregory Polanco was too great a cost for the Pirates to acquire the aforementioned left-handed pitcher. The ZiPS projection published below suggests that Polanco has the opportunity to approach (within a win, at least) Price’s actual value this very season, given a full complement of major-league plate appearances. One will note that ZiPS isn’t systematically optimistic about prospects. Phrased differently: there are real reasons to be excited about Polanco, if and when he graduates to the parent club.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Andrew McCutchen	R	27	CF	670	100	167	32	5	24	86	23	10
Russell Martin	R	31	C	458	49	94	18	0	14	50	7	3
Starling Marte	R	25	LF	583	82	142	27	11	13	54	29	13
Gregory Polanco	L	22	CF	553	65	133	26	4	11	59	30	13
Pedro Alvarez	L	27	3B	597	70	126	24	2	32	95	2	0
Neil Walker	B	28	2B	603	74	140	30	3	16	74	5	4
Jordy Mercer	R	27	SS	494	55	114	27	3	9	48	5	4
Jose Tabata	R	25	RF	503	64	120	26	4	6	38	12	7
Clint Barmes	R	35	SS	397	32	85	17	0	6	34	1	1
Josh Harrison	R	26	2B	432	56	105	24	6	6	44	13	6
Alen Hanson	B	21	SS	583	65	131	25	10	10	60	22	16
Tony Sanchez	R	26	C	405	43	83	22	1	8	42	2	2
Gaby Sanchez	R	30	1B	458	47	101	24	0	12	53	2	1
Nevin Ashley	R	29	C	315	29	64	13	2	5	27	2	1
Chase d’Arnaud	R	27	SS	428	52	89	18	7	5	39	21	5
Adalberto Santos	R	26	3B	431	46	94	18	3	4	37	15	6
Michael McKenry	R	29	C	234	20	49	12	0	6	26	0	0
Jaff Decker	L	24	CF	459	57	85	19	3	9	45	5	5
Chris Stewart	R	32	C	275	26	58	10	0	2	23	3	0
Brandon Inge	R	37	3B	238	21	46	11	0	6	26	1	0
Felix Pie	L	29	LF	357	38	78	18	5	5	31	16	4
Andrew Lambo	L	25	RF	430	50	90	19	3	15	53	4	2
Robert Andino	R	30	2B	449	45	98	19	1	5	34	7	3
Chris McGuiness	L	26	1B	458	40	92	23	0	9	43	1	1
Travis Snider	L	26	RF	423	47	93	21	2	9	44	7	4
Chris Dickerson	L	32	LF	283	32	59	13	2	4	22	10	2
Darren Ford	R	28	LF	332	35	67	10	3	3	24	21	10
Travis Ishikawa	L	30	1B	274	25	58	16	1	4	29	1	0
Michael Martinez	B	31	SS	301	31	67	9	3	3	27	5	3
Brett Carroll	R	31	LF	393	41	75	16	1	9	34	5	3
Jeff Larish	L	31	RF	191	17	33	9	0	5	17	0	1
Matt Hague	R	28	1B	585	63	132	29	2	7	59	3	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	670	11.3%	17.5%	.196	.322	.288	.375	.484	.367
Russell Martin	458	10.5%	19.4%	.150	.268	.234	.326	.384	.315
Starling Marte	583	4.3%	23.8%	.165	.335	.265	.318	.430	.324
Gregory Polanco	553	6.3%	16.3%	.131	.295	.261	.309	.392	.309
Pedro Alvarez	597	8.9%	32.0%	.231	.295	.234	.303	.465	.328
Neil Walker	603	8.3%	17.7%	.157	.296	.261	.330	.418	.324
Jordy Mercer	494	5.7%	17.6%	.133	.292	.252	.302	.385	.295
Jose Tabata	503	7.4%	14.9%	.116	.306	.265	.329	.381	.312
Clint Barmes	397	5.0%	19.1%	.096	.278	.234	.281	.330	.263
Josh Harrison	432	3.7%	12.7%	.135	.291	.264	.302	.399	.302
Alen Hanson	583	6.0%	22.8%	.140	.304	.244	.292	.384	.291
Tony Sanchez	405	7.4%	22.5%	.132	.281	.229	.300	.361	.291
Gaby Sanchez	458	10.0%	15.7%	.149	.276	.252	.333	.401	.322
Nevin Ashley	315	6.3%	23.5%	.112	.284	.225	.288	.337	.276
Chase d’Arnaud	428	5.6%	21.0%	.118	.278	.225	.275	.343	.278
Adalberto Santos	431	7.7%	18.1%	.092	.291	.242	.306	.334	.286
Michael McKenry	234	7.3%	23.5%	.142	.281	.231	.292	.373	.290
Jaff Decker	459	11.1%	26.4%	.131	.280	.214	.305	.345	.285
Chris Stewart	275	5.1%	12.7%	.064	.260	.233	.281	.297	.255
Brandon Inge	238	5.9%	27.3%	.132	.267	.209	.262	.341	.267
Felix Pie	357	5.3%	20.2%	.128	.283	.234	.278	.362	.286
Andrew Lambo	430	6.7%	28.1%	.178	.288	.229	.285	.407	.300
Robert Andino	449	5.8%	19.2%	.087	.287	.238	.284	.325	.269
Chris McGuiness	458	9.4%	22.9%	.122	.279	.224	.301	.346	.289
Travis Snider	423	7.6%	23.9%	.135	.300	.240	.298	.375	.294
Chris Dickerson	283	7.8%	26.1%	.114	.306	.230	.294	.344	.288
Darren Ford	332	6.3%	23.8%	.083	.286	.220	.274	.303	.257
Travis Ishikawa	274	7.7%	23.4%	.121	.300	.235	.301	.356	.287
Michael Martinez	301	4.3%	15.9%	.086	.276	.238	.275	.324	.260
Brett Carroll	393	6.9%	25.4%	.126	.264	.210	.274	.336	.269
Jeff Larish	191	9.4%	31.9%	.139	.264	.192	.272	.331	.266
Matt Hague	585	6.8%	16.1%	.101	.287	.247	.307	.348	.291

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen	670	7.0	141	3	6.4	Amos Otis
Russell Martin	458	4.4	100	6	3.4	Frankie Hayes
Starling Marte	583	5.1	109	12	3.3	Matt Kemp
Gregory Polanco	553	4.5	96	10	3.2	Johnny Damon
Pedro Alvarez	597	5.0	113	-2	3.1	Mike Pagliarulo
Neil Walker	603	5.0	110	-2	2.9	Todd Zeile
Jordy Mercer	494	4.1	92	0	1.8	Brendan Harris
Jose Tabata	503	4.6	100	5	1.7	Matt Stairs
Clint Barmes	397	3.2	72	9	1.4	Jason Wood
Josh Harrison	432	4.5	96	-1	1.4	Joseph Thurston
Alen Hanson	583	3.8	89	-5	1.3	Cristian Guzman
Tony Sanchez	405	3.7	85	-4	1.3	Eric Helfand
Gaby Sanchez	458	4.8	106	1	1.1	Mike Andrews
Nevin Ashley	315	3.4	76	2	1.1	Danny Ardoin
Chase d’Arnaud	428	3.6	73	0	0.9	Michael Martinez
Adalberto Santos	431	3.7	81	0	0.8	Peter Peltz
Michael McKenry	234	3.8	86	-2	0.8	John Buck
Jaff Decker	459	3.5	83	-3	0.6	Billy McMillon
Chris Stewart	275	3.1	64	0	0.5	Charlie Greene
Brandon Inge	238	3.1	69	2	0.3	Jim Morrison
Felix Pie	357	3.8	79	2	0.3	Adrian Myers
Andrew Lambo	430	4.1	93	-3	0.2	Tim Costo
Robert Andino	449	3.3	72	-1	0.2	Edwin Maysonet
Chris McGuiness	458	3.6	82	4	0.2	Felix Colon
Travis Snider	423	3.9	88	-1	0.2	Doug Deeds
Chris Dickerson	283	3.8	80	0	0.1	Terrell Lowery
Darren Ford	332	2.9	63	7	0.1	Mike Murphy
Travis Ishikawa	274	3.8	85	1	0.0	Orsino Hill
Michael Martinez	301	3.1	68	-2	0.0	Pablo Martinez
Brett Carroll	393	3.1	71	1	-0.4	Nick Gorneault
Jeff Larish	191	2.9	69	-2	-0.5	Dustan Mohr
Matt Hague	585	3.8	84	-4	-0.6	Tim Hummel

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Francisco Liriano	L	30	28	28	161.0	151	59	10	137	60	56
Gerrit Cole	R	23	30	30	163.0	134	52	13	153	67	63
A.J. Burnett	R	37	28	28	173.7	157	60	15	161	74	69
Jameson Taillon	R	22	24	23	146.7	110	48	12	143	65	61
Wandy Rodriguez	L	35	20	20	119.0	83	32	12	113	51	48
Jeff Locke	L	26	30	29	158.3	118	71	15	154	77	72
Mark Melancon	R	29	67	0	68.7	64	14	4	60	22	21
Charlie Morton	R	30	22	22	121.3	78	43	9	125	58	54
Jeanmar Gomez	R	26	32	20	128.3	75	43	11	127	61	57
Nick Kingham	R	22	27	26	133.0	98	45	14	133	65	61
Stolmy Pimentel	R	24	27	24	142.3	87	49	14	144	71	66
Jason Grilli	R	37	51	0	50.3	64	16	4	39	16	15
Jeff Karstens	R	31	18	15	91.0	55	19	10	96	44	41
Brandon Cumpton	R	25	26	25	139.0	76	49	12	146	72	67
Tony Watson	L	29	66	0	63.3	54	19	5	55	25	23
Kyle McPherson	R	26	20	17	95.7	64	22	11	101	48	45
Justin Wilson	L	26	64	0	72.0	62	34	6	61	29	27
David Bromberg	R	26	26	15	104.7	74	44	10	103	52	49
James McDonald	R	29	23	22	115.7	93	52	14	112	60	56
Vin Mazzaro	R	27	62	0	77.3	53	24	5	74	32	30
Casey Sadler	R	23	28	22	130.7	64	41	13	139	68	64
Edinson Volquez	R	30	30	29	164.7	130	73	16	166	88	82
Josh Kinney	R	35	43	0	48.3	36	17	3	46	20	19
Zachary Thornton	R	26	45	0	71.3	59	20	6	68	31	29
Chris Leroux	R	30	26	5	56.0	39	22	5	56	28	26
Phil Irwin	R	27	15	15	79.3	46	20	9	88	43	40
Joely Rodriguez	L	22	21	21	104.7	52	36	10	114	57	53
Kyle Farnsworth	R	38	43	0	35.0	26	12	3	35	16	15
Jared Hughes	R	28	56	0	62.7	43	23	5	61	29	27
Kyle Waldrop	R	28	32	1	47.7	22	16	4	51	24	22
Daniel Schlereth	L	28	24	0	24.7	21	16	2	23	13	12
Miles Mikolas	R	25	59	0	66.0	40	22	6	68	32	30
Cody Eppley	R	28	57	0	51.3	36	27	3	50	26	24
Collin Balester	R	28	28	2	51.0	37	21	7	52	28	26
Bryan Morris	R	27	57	0	74.7	48	26	8	75	37	35
Duke Welker	R	28	47	0	56.3	40	34	4	55	30	28
Graham Godfrey	R	29	27	18	113.3	55	38	15	128	67	63
Andy Oliver	L	26	27	22	116.0	88	112	11	114	76	71

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Francisco Liriano	161.0	679	22.2%	8.7%	.278	3.13	3.11	85	84
Gerrit Cole	163.0	694	19.3%	7.5%	.287	3.48	3.52	94	95
A.J. Burnett	173.7	742	21.2%	8.1%	.291	3.58	3.50	97	95
Jameson Taillon	146.7	631	17.4%	7.6%	.289	3.74	3.71	101	100
Wandy Rodriguez	119.0	502	16.5%	6.4%	.272	3.63	3.79	98	103
Jeff Locke	158.3	700	16.9%	10.1%	.285	4.09	4.25	111	115
Mark Melancon	68.7	280	22.8%	5.0%	.286	2.75	2.55	74	69
Charlie Morton	121.3	532	14.7%	8.1%	.297	4.01	4.01	109	108
Jeanmar Gomez	128.3	555	13.5%	7.7%	.276	4.00	4.07	108	110
Nick Kingham	133.0	577	17.0%	7.8%	.289	4.13	4.14	112	112
Stolmy Pimentel	142.3	620	14.0%	7.9%	.281	4.17	4.28	113	116
Jason Grilli	50.3	206	31.1%	7.8%	.292	2.68	2.49	73	67
Jeff Karstens	91.0	388	14.2%	4.9%	.285	4.05	3.89	110	105
Brandon Cumpton	139.0	612	12.4%	8.0%	.287	4.34	4.30	117	116
Tony Watson	63.3	264	20.5%	7.2%	.275	3.27	3.36	88	91
Kyle McPherson	95.7	410	15.6%	5.4%	.293	4.23	4.08	114	110
Justin Wilson	72.0	311	19.9%	10.9%	.268	3.37	3.95	91	107
David Bromberg	104.7	461	16.0%	9.5%	.284	4.21	4.28	114	116
James McDonald	115.7	511	18.2%	10.2%	.282	4.36	4.41	118	119
Vin Mazzaro	77.3	330	16.1%	7.3%	.282	3.49	3.48	94	94
Casey Sadler	130.7	572	11.2%	7.2%	.282	4.41	4.44	119	120
Edinson Volquez	164.7	733	17.7%	10.0%	.295	4.48	4.10	121	111
Josh Kinney	48.3	208	17.3%	8.2%	.289	3.54	3.48	96	94
Zachary Thornton	71.3	302	19.5%	6.6%	.293	3.66	3.49	99	95
Chris Leroux	56.0	246	15.9%	8.9%	.288	4.18	4.10	113	111
Phil Irwin	79.3	346	13.3%	5.8%	.297	4.54	4.31	123	117
Joely Rodriguez	104.7	464	11.2%	7.8%	.290	4.56	4.53	123	122
Kyle Farnsworth	35.0	152	17.1%	7.9%	.291	3.86	3.70	104	100
Jared Hughes	62.7	272	15.8%	8.5%	.284	3.88	3.91	105	106
Kyle Waldrop	47.7	210	10.5%	7.6%	.285	4.15	4.28	112	116
Daniel Schlereth	24.7	113	18.6%	14.1%	.291	4.38	4.34	119	117
Miles Mikolas	66.0	288	13.9%	7.6%	.288	4.09	4.20	111	114
Cody Eppley	51.3	231	15.6%	11.7%	.289	4.21	3.92	114	106
Collin Balester	51.0	226	16.4%	9.3%	.287	4.59	4.73	124	128
Bryan Morris	74.7	325	14.8%	8.0%	.280	4.22	4.24	114	115
Duke Welker	56.3	258	15.5%	13.2%	.290	4.47	4.57	121	124
Graham Godfrey	113.3	506	10.9%	7.5%	.289	5.00	4.99	135	135
Andy Oliver	116.0	574	15.3%	19.5%	.290	5.51	5.84	149	158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Francisco Liriano	161.0	8.44	3.30	0.56	115	2.9	Al Leiter
Gerrit Cole	163.0	7.40	2.87	0.72	104	2.2	Kevin Brown
A.J. Burnett	173.7	8.13	3.11	0.78	101	2.2	David Cone
Jameson Taillon	146.7	6.75	2.94	0.74	96	1.5	Aaron Harang
Wandy Rodriguez	119.0	6.28	2.42	0.91	99	1.4	Mike Flanagan
Jeff Locke	158.3	6.71	4.04	0.85	88	1.0	Bill Krueger
Mark Melancon	68.7	8.38	1.83	0.52	131	0.9	Chad Bradford
Charlie Morton	121.3	5.79	3.19	0.67	90	0.9	Omar Olivares
Jeanmar Gomez	128.3	5.26	3.02	0.77	90	0.8	Steve Cummings
Nick Kingham	133.0	6.63	3.05	0.95	87	0.8	Urbano Lugo
Stolmy Pimentel	142.3	5.50	3.10	0.89	86	0.7	Chance Douglass
Jason Grilli	50.3	11.45	2.86	0.72	134	0.7	Tom Gordon
Jeff Karstens	91.0	5.44	1.88	0.99	89	0.6	Brian Tollberg
Brandon Cumpton	139.0	4.92	3.17	0.78	83	0.4	Jake Dittler
Tony Watson	63.3	7.68	2.70	0.71	110	0.4	Jeff Fassero
Kyle McPherson	95.7	6.02	2.07	1.03	85	0.4	Mike Harkey
Justin Wilson	72.0	7.75	4.25	0.75	107	0.4	Mike Mohler
David Bromberg	104.7	6.36	3.78	0.86	85	0.4	Greg Aquino
James McDonald	115.7	7.23	4.04	1.09	83	0.3	Chris Fussell
Vin Mazzaro	77.3	6.17	2.79	0.58	103	0.3	Todd Williams
Casey Sadler	130.7	4.41	2.82	0.90	82	0.3	Jason Karnuth
Edinson Volquez	164.7	7.10	3.99	0.87	80	0.2	Jamey Wright
Josh Kinney	48.3	6.71	3.17	0.56	102	0.2	Darrin Babineaux
Zachary Thornton	71.3	7.45	2.52	0.76	98	0.1	Jose Acevedo
Chris Leroux	56.0	6.27	3.54	0.80	86	0.1	Jarod Juelsgaard
Phil Irwin	79.3	5.22	2.27	1.02	79	0.1	Jamie Brown
Joely Rodriguez	104.7	4.47	3.09	0.86	79	0.1	Rich Rundles
Kyle Farnsworth	35.0	6.69	3.09	0.77	93	0.0	Terry Clark
Jared Hughes	62.7	6.17	3.30	0.72	93	0.0	Sean Green
Kyle Waldrop	47.7	4.15	3.02	0.75	87	-0.1	Mike Bacsik
Daniel Schlereth	24.7	7.65	5.83	0.73	82	-0.2	Mike Kinnunen
Miles Mikolas	66.0	5.45	3.00	0.82	88	-0.2	Robert Paulk
Cody Eppley	51.3	6.32	4.74	0.53	86	-0.2	Ryan Baker
Collin Balester	51.0	6.53	3.71	1.24	79	-0.3	Doug Gogolewski
Bryan Morris	74.7	5.78	3.13	0.96	85	-0.4	Travis Thompson
Duke Welker	56.3	6.39	5.44	0.64	81	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Graham Godfrey	113.3	4.37	3.02	1.19	72	-0.6	Mike Walker
Andy Oliver	116.0	6.83	8.69	0.85	65	-1.3	Chris Mobley

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.