2014 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
San Diego’s leader by WAR in 2013 was Chris Denorfia, with a 3.9 mark — for which reason it feels odd to view him as part-time/platoon-type player entering 2014. Yet, that’s how the author has classified him in the depth-chart graphic below and how ZiPS seemingly regards him, as well — insofar, that is, as it doesn’t foresee the outfielder duplicating his career-best season, at all.

Of some difficulty with regard to understanding the 2014 iteration of the Padres is estimating precisely how playing time will work out between the team’s two catchers. ZiPS’ computer math suggests that Yasmani Grandal is probably the second- or third-best player on the whole club. That said, he underwent surgery on his ACL in August that could require up to a year of recovery. Fortunately for San Diego, Nick Hundley himself isn’t a particularly significant downgrade. Still, that’s a lot of talent to possess at one position while others could certainly afford to be upgraded.

Pitchers
It’s absolutely a credit to left-hander Eric Stults that, after pitching in part of six major-league seasons, he recorded his first 200-inning season — and, simultaneously, his first 100-inning season — at age 33. It’s less of a credit to the Padres rotation, probably, though, that left-hander Eric Stults — who notably recorded his first 200-inning season at age 33 — was the club’s pitching WAR leader in 2013. Promising moments from both Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross — plus the signing of Josh Johnson — suggest that there’s some reason for optimism here, but the margin for error is pretty small.

One of the club’s bullpen fixtures, Luke Gregerson, departed in a trade to Oakland recently for outfielder Seth Smith — whose projection is absent from those included below, the author has literally just noticed while typing these words. Otherwise, the relief corps is largely unchanged since the end of 2013, including closer Huston Street other serviceable pieces like Brad Boxberger, Dale Thayer, Nick Vincent.

Bench/Prospects
The Padres system certainly isn’t without talent. Catcher Austin Hedges remains one of the more promising prospects in all of baseball. Right-hander Matthew Wisler, as well, exhibited above-average stuff en route to an excellent year at Double-A in just his age-20 season. Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot of premium talent ready to produce at the major leagues. In part, this is due to injuries which have stalled the development of Casey Kelly, Rymer Liriano, and Joe Wieland — all of whom could reasonably have had some kind of role with the 2013 club.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Chase Headley	B	30	3B	595	71	133	30	2	16	69	11	4
Jedd Gyorko	R	25	2B	568	75	133	28	0	20	72	4	2
Yasmani Grandal	B	25	C	338	40	72	17	0	7	36	0	0
Everth Cabrera	B	27	SS	469	60	104	17	5	3	32	38	9
Carlos Quentin	R	31	LF	386	51	86	23	0	16	55	0	1
Cameron Maybin	R	27	CF	380	53	84	13	4	8	37	19	5
Nick Hundley	R	30	C	353	34	74	16	2	9	43	1	2
Chris Denorfia	R	33	RF	440	60	107	18	3	8	38	10	3
Will Venable	L	31	RF	489	66	110	20	7	15	54	21	5
Rene Rivera	R	30	C	318	30	69	15	1	5	29	0	1
Jace Peterson	L	24	SS	557	68	113	15	7	3	44	32	12
Yonder Alonso	L	27	1B	524	49	127	25	1	10	62	6	2
Austin Hedges	R	21	C	383	41	79	21	0	4	35	9	10
Logan Forsythe	R	27	2B	379	47	77	13	3	7	34	9	2
Reymond Fuentes	L	23	RF	535	62	113	22	3	5	42	28	9
Jesus Guzman	R	30	1B	399	45	90	22	1	10	55	5	2
Tommy Medica	R	26	1B	405	49	84	21	2	13	54	2	2
Alexi Amarista	L	25	CF	489	53	114	22	6	5	49	9	5
Gregorio Petit	R	29	SS	507	48	107	20	1	5	40	4	2
Ronny Cedeno	R	31	SS	343	31	74	14	3	3	28	4	3
James Darnell	R	27	LF	259	28	54	12	1	7	30	1	1
Kyle Blanks	R	27	RF	307	38	63	14	1	9	30	2	1
Jonathan Galvez	R	23	2B	459	54	99	21	2	5	41	15	5
Cory Spangenberg	L	23	2B	536	55	116	17	7	3	43	22	12
Jesus Merchan	R	33	3B	214	20	51	8	1	1	16	1	2
Travis Buck	L	30	LF	192	21	40	11	1	3	19	1	1
Chris Robinson	R	30	C	253	22	57	10	0	1	19	1	2
Cody Decker	R	27	1B	445	47	81	19	2	16	54	1	1
Mark Kotsay	L	38	LF	153	9	34	5	0	1	15	0	2
Yeison Asencio	R	24	RF	525	53	125	26	5	5	52	4	5
Rymer Liriano	R	23	RF	446	45	88	19	4	6	38	20	11
Ben Francisco	R	32	LF	252	21	50	10	1	3	20	3	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chase Headley	595	10.6%	22.9%	.157	.313	.254	.339	.411	.329
Jedd Gyorko	568	6.9%	22.9%	.168	.301	.254	.308	.423	.318
Yasmani Grandal	338	12.4%	23.4%	.130	.313	.247	.343	.377	.319
Everth Cabrera	469	9.0%	20.9%	.087	.320	.250	.321	.337	.299
Carlos Quentin	386	8.5%	16.6%	.213	.272	.258	.350	.471	.357
Cameron Maybin	380	7.9%	21.8%	.131	.299	.244	.310	.375	.306
Nick Hundley	353	6.8%	24.4%	.146	.284	.231	.290	.377	.286
Chris Denorfia	440	7.5%	15.2%	.119	.300	.266	.321	.386	.312
Will Venable	489	7.0%	23.5%	.177	.298	.247	.304	.424	.316
Rene Rivera	318	5.0%	20.8%	.108	.282	.234	.275	.342	.268
Jace Peterson	557	8.4%	17.6%	.076	.275	.227	.297	.304	.273
Yonder Alonso	524	9.0%	15.8%	.121	.306	.270	.336	.391	.316
Austin Hedges	383	5.7%	21.7%	.094	.281	.225	.278	.319	.261
Logan Forsythe	379	9.8%	24.0%	.119	.294	.230	.315	.349	.298
Reymond Fuentes	535	8.2%	25.6%	.090	.321	.237	.309	.328	.288
Jesus Guzman	399	8.0%	21.6%	.149	.300	.249	.314	.398	.312
Tommy Medica	405	8.1%	28.1%	.177	.298	.232	.306	.409	.314
Alexi Amarista	489	4.7%	14.3%	.108	.284	.251	.287	.358	.279
Gregorio Petit	507	5.3%	18.7%	.079	.275	.229	.275	.308	.258
Ronny Cedeno	343	5.8%	22.7%	.092	.302	.236	.284	.328	.264
James Darnell	259	8.9%	21.6%	.152	.276	.234	.306	.385	.302
Kyle Blanks	307	7.5%	29.6%	.155	.302	.227	.296	.383	.299
Jonathan Galvez	459	6.1%	25.3%	.095	.311	.235	.291	.330	.278
Cory Spangenberg	536	5.0%	22.6%	.081	.304	.235	.279	.316	.260
Jesus Merchan	214	3.7%	11.2%	.064	.281	.252	.283	.317	.262
Travis Buck	192	5.7%	20.3%	.125	.272	.227	.277	.352	.276
Chris Robinson	253	2.8%	17.8%	.054	.287	.238	.267	.293	.245
Cody Decker	445	8.1%	35.3%	.176	.279	.201	.270	.377	.284
Mark Kotsay	153	7.2%	13.1%	.057	.275	.243	.296	.300	.262
Yeison Asencio	525	3.2%	13.5%	.102	.280	.250	.276	.352	.273
Rymer Liriano	446	5.8%	29.6%	.109	.296	.213	.267	.322	.259
Ben Francisco	252	7.5%	20.6%	.092	.269	.219	.283	.311	.267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Chase Headley	595	5.1	114	4	3.9	Corey Koskie
Jedd Gyorko	568	4.7	106	-3	2.5	Bret Boone
Yasmani Grandal	338	4.6	106	-1	2.2	Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Everth Cabrera	469	4.4	89	-2	2.0	Freddie Patek
Carlos Quentin	386	5.9	132	-5	1.9	Gary Roenicke
Cameron Maybin	380	4.4	95	2	1.8	Calvin Murray
Nick Hundley	353	3.7	89	3	1.7	Chris Widger
Chris Denorfia	440	4.7	101	4	1.6	Mike Kreevich
Will Venable	489	4.9	105	-1	1.5	Michael Tucker
Rene Rivera	318	3.3	75	5	1.3	Dave Parrish
Jace Peterson	557	3.3	73	0	1.2	Spike Owen
Yonder Alonso	524	4.9	107	0	1.2	John Kruk
Austin Hedges	383	2.8	70	4	1.1	Ryan Luzinski
Logan Forsythe	379	4.0	90	-4	0.9	Dave Edler
Reymond Fuentes	535	3.8	82	3	0.8	Mike Neill
Jesus Guzman	399	4.5	102	0	0.7	Marty Cordova
Tommy Medica	405	4.3	102	0	0.7	Bucky Jacobsen
Alexi Amarista	489	3.7	83	-3	0.6	Mark Kramer
Gregorio Petit	507	3.0	66	1	0.5	Juan Castro
Ronny Cedeno	343	3.2	75	-1	0.4	Eddie Zosky
James Darnell	259	4.1	96	-2	0.3	Adan Millan
Kyle Blanks	307	4.0	93	-3	0.2	Jeff Baker
Jonathan Galvez	459	3.5	77	-6	0.2	Brad Wellman
Cory Spangenberg	536	3.1	70	-1	0.1	Juan Bell
Jesus Merchan	214	3.1	71	-1	0.1	Doug Flynn
Travis Buck	192	3.4	79	-1	-0.1	Jeff Wetherby
Chris Robinson	253	2.6	60	-4	-0.2	Hector Ortiz
Cody Decker	445	3.4	83	0	-0.2	Danny Peoples
Mark Kotsay	153	2.9	71	-1	-0.4	Brian Jordan
Yeison Asencio	525	3.4	78	0	-0.4	Simon Rosario
Rymer Liriano	446	2.9	68	2	-0.6	Cesar Hernandez
Ben Francisco	252	3.1	70	-4	-0.7	Chris Pritchett

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Ian Kennedy	R	29	30	30	190.7	174	58	20	173	79	74
Andrew Cashner	R	27	33	21	141.0	110	39	10	126	54	50
Eric Stults	L	34	26	24	148.0	95	38	12	149	66	62
Josh Johnson	R	30	20	20	114.7	106	38	10	107	49	46
Cory Luebke	L	29	12	12	71.3	71	22	6	61	27	25
Burch Smith	R	24	28	26	128.7	120	43	15	120	59	55
Matt Andriese	R	24	27	25	132.3	87	41	10	133	61	57
Tyson Ross	R	27	31	19	122.7	98	51	9	115	56	52
Tim Stauffer	R	32	32	14	109.7	79	35	10	106	49	46
Luke Gregerson	R	30	69	0	63.0	57	19	5	54	22	21
Brad Boxberger	R	26	60	0	72.3	88	36	6	57	27	25
Matthew Wisler	R	21	26	26	124.0	92	46	12	123	62	58
Nick Vincent	R	27	66	0	68.0	65	24	6	59	27	25
Joe Wieland	R	24	9	9	44.0	39	14	5	40	20	19
Huston Street	R	30	54	0	50.3	49	12	6	43	19	18
Kevin Quackenbush	R	25	53	0	57.0	59	29	4	48	24	22
Casey Kelly	R	24	12	12	63.0	45	19	6	69	32	30
Dale Thayer	R	33	65	0	63.3	54	17	6	59	27	25
Fautino De Los Santos	R	28	28	0	34.0	34	16	3	30	14	13
Robbie Erlin	L	23	24	23	116.7	85	42	14	119	61	57
Arturo Lopez	L	31	31	12	75.7	59	34	8	75	39	36
Sean O’Sullivan	R	26	27	21	134.3	72	49	12	144	71	66
Anthony Bass	R	26	35	16	113.0	78	39	12	116	59	55
Donn Roach	R	24	24	23	119.7	57	49	9	129	65	61
Chris Rearick	L	26	45	0	55.3	45	24	5	53	27	25
Juan Oramas	L	24	13	13	56.0	47	29	7	56	32	30
Jason Marquis	R	35	19	19	113.0	71	47	15	119	63	59
Clayton Richard	L	30	20	19	112.7	58	29	16	123	63	59
Adys Portillo	R	22	13	13	54.7	39	42	5	54	33	31
Clay Zavada	L	30	23	0	26.7	17	15	3	28	16	15
Eddie Bonine	R	33	17	13	72.0	27	27	9	83	46	43
Anthony Carter	R	28	48	0	61.0	46	32	7	62	35	33
Josh Geer	R	31	23	13	89.7	46	33	13	104	58	54
Wilfredo Boscan	R	24	25	10	73.7	39	31	12	84	49	46
Dan Cortes	R	27	38	0	47.0	34	35	8	49	33	31
Keyvius Sampson	R	23	27	26	121.0	92	83	18	124	79	74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Ian Kennedy	190.7	803	21.7%	7.2%	.284	3.49	3.61	97	100
Andrew Cashner	141.0	587	18.8%	6.6%	.272	3.19	3.30	88	91
Eric Stults	148.0	631	15.1%	6.0%	.283	3.77	3.66	104	101
Josh Johnson	114.7	489	21.6%	7.8%	.292	3.61	3.32	100	92
Cory Luebke	71.3	296	23.9%	7.3%	.275	3.15	3.08	87	85
Burch Smith	128.7	549	21.8%	7.8%	.289	3.85	3.80	106	105
Matt Andriese	132.3	572	15.1%	7.2%	.289	3.88	3.86	107	107
Tyson Ross	122.7	534	18.3%	9.5%	.287	3.82	3.75	105	104
Tim Stauffer	109.7	470	16.8%	7.4%	.283	3.78	3.81	104	105
Luke Gregerson	63.0	262	21.9%	7.1%	.279	3.00	3.11	83	86
Brad Boxberger	72.3	309	28.5%	11.6%	.289	3.11	3.26	86	90
Matthew Wisler	124.0	541	17.0%	8.5%	.289	4.21	4.20	116	116
Nick Vincent	68.0	287	22.6%	8.4%	.282	3.31	3.42	91	94
Joe Wieland	44.0	186	21.0%	7.7%	.275	3.89	3.78	107	104
Huston Street	50.3	206	23.8%	6.0%	.264	3.22	3.43	89	95
Kevin Quackenbush	57.0	249	23.7%	11.8%	.287	3.47	3.58	96	99
Casey Kelly	63.0	277	16.2%	6.9%	.310	4.29	3.88	118	107
Dale Thayer	63.3	266	20.4%	6.5%	.283	3.55	3.43	98	95
Fautino De Los Santos	34.0	148	23.2%	10.8%	.292	3.44	3.44	95	95
Robbie Erlin	116.7	511	16.6%	8.2%	.287	4.40	4.37	121	121
Arturo Lopez	75.7	336	17.7%	10.1%	.291	4.28	4.29	118	118
Sean O’Sullivan	134.3	596	12.2%	8.3%	.291	4.42	4.34	122	120
Anthony Bass	113.0	494	15.8%	7.9%	.287	4.38	4.16	121	115
Donn Roach	119.7	537	10.6%	9.1%	.289	4.59	4.55	127	126
Chris Rearick	55.3	243	18.4%	9.7%	.291	4.07	4.08	112	113
Juan Oramas	56.0	253	18.5%	11.4%	.292	4.82	4.82	133	133
Jason Marquis	113.0	505	14.0%	9.3%	.282	4.70	4.86	130	134
Clayton Richard	112.7	490	11.9%	6.0%	.278	4.71	4.68	130	129
Adys Portillo	54.7	260	15.0%	16.3%	.287	5.10	5.41	141	149
Clay Zavada	26.7	123	13.8%	12.4%	.289	5.06	5.17	140	143
Eddie Bonine	72.0	326	8.4%	8.3%	.287	5.37	5.30	149	146
Anthony Carter	61.0	277	16.7%	11.7%	.292	4.87	4.80	135	133
Josh Geer	89.7	406	11.2%	8.2%	.295	5.42	5.26	150	145
Wilfredo Boscan	73.7	336	11.5%	9.2%	.288	5.62	5.58	155	154
Dan Cortes	47.0	225	15.2%	15.5%	.286	5.94	6.15	164	170
Keyvius Sampson	121.0	570	16.1%	14.5%	.290	5.50	5.67	152	157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Ian Kennedy	190.7	8.24	2.71	0.93	100	2.2	Steve Trachsel
Andrew Cashner	141.0	7.04	2.46	0.66	109	2.0	Esteban Loaiza
Eric Stults	148.0	5.79	2.29	0.75	92	1.2	Mark Hendrickson
Josh Johnson	114.7	8.30	3.01	0.78	97	1.2	Rick Rhoden
Cory Luebke	71.3	8.92	2.74	0.79	111	1.1	Atlee Hammaker
Burch Smith	128.7	8.37	3.00	1.04	91	0.9	Juan Acevedo
Matt Andriese	132.3	5.88	2.81	0.69	90	0.9	Cha-Seung Baek
Tyson Ross	122.7	7.18	3.71	0.67	91	0.8	Tony Fiore
Tim Stauffer	109.7	6.47	2.85	0.79	92	0.7	Brian Powell
Luke Gregerson	63.0	8.20	2.65	0.66	116	0.5	Hector Carrasco
Brad Boxberger	72.3	10.96	4.45	0.72	112	0.5	Jeff Zaske
Matthew Wisler	124.0	6.67	3.35	0.90	83	0.4	Brad Rigby
Nick Vincent	68.0	8.60	3.18	0.78	105	0.3	Mark Acre
Joe Wieland	44.0	8.02	2.93	1.11	90	0.3	Luis Vasquez
Huston Street	50.3	8.77	2.22	1.14	108	0.3	Mark Huismann
Kevin Quackenbush	57.0	9.29	4.64	0.65	100	0.2	Saul Rivera
Casey Kelly	63.0	6.39	2.74	0.79	81	0.1	John Dopson
Dale Thayer	63.3	7.72	2.46	0.89	98	0.1	Randy St. Claire
Fautino De Los Santos	34.0	9.08	4.20	0.70	101	0.1	Jason Bulger
Robbie Erlin	116.7	6.52	3.22	1.08	79	0.1	Rich Pratt
Arturo Lopez	75.7	7.07	4.03	0.93	81	0.0	Matt Williams
Sean O’Sullivan	134.3	4.85	3.30	0.77	79	0.0	Jake Joseph
Anthony Bass	113.0	6.22	3.11	0.99	80	-0.1	Casey Daigle
Donn Roach	119.7	4.26	3.67	0.71	76	-0.2	Justin Sturge
Chris Rearick	55.3	7.28	3.85	0.87	86	-0.2	Jose Rodriguez
Juan Oramas	56.0	7.49	4.64	1.16	72	-0.3	Damian Moss
Jason Marquis	113.0	5.64	3.74	1.22	74	-0.3	Aaron Sele
Clayton Richard	112.7	4.65	2.36	1.28	74	-0.4	Dave Gassner
Adys Portillo	54.7	6.44	6.98	0.86	68	-0.4	Tim Harrell
Clay Zavada	26.7	5.73	5.16	1.00	69	-0.4	Dick Selma
Eddie Bonine	72.0	3.43	3.39	1.16	65	-0.8	Alan Benes
Anthony Carter	61.0	6.83	4.77	1.06	72	-0.9	Mark Ohlms
Josh Geer	89.7	4.57	3.35	1.32	64	-1.1	Jason Roach
Wilfredo Boscan	73.7	4.71	3.76	1.50	62	-1.2	Jeff Robinson
Dan Cortes	47.0	6.56	6.66	1.48	59	-1.3	Brad Tweedlie
Keyvius Sampson	121.0	6.81	6.16	1.31	63	-1.5	Mike Buddie

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.