2014 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
ZiPS projects Robinson Cano, Brad Miller, and Kyle Seager to produce the most wins among all of Seattle’s field players this next season. The latter two differ from the first insofar as they’ll make entire truck loads less of American currency in 2014. The triumvirate all share a common trait, however, insofar as none of the three ever appeared on a Baseball America top-100 prospect list — a statement intended not as a comment on the great work done by BA, but merely on the unique paths shared by each.

By all appearances, Corey Hart and Logan Morrison will actually share left-field and DH duties in 2014, an arrangement which the author hasn’t depicted on the very attractive depth-chart graphic below not because he was unaware of it (i.e. the arrangement), but because it would have been tedious and largely unnecessary extra work.

Pitchers
If one takes for granted that the Mariners’ timetable for contention has been altered dramatically by the recent signing of Robinson Cano, then one will also recognize that Seattle ought probably to address its starting rotation before the beginning of the 2014 season. This isn’t to say that James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are without promise; indeed, signs point to both of them developing into effective pitchers. What their respective records to date suggest, however, is that that they’re unlikely to prevent runs at the same rate as an average major-leaguer starter — i.e. the sort of starter the should probably occupy the third, fourth, and maybe even fifth rotation slots of a contending club.

This next paragraph is a very short one in which the Mariners bullpen is invoked, because such a thing seems integral to this kind of post.

Bench/Prospects
The field player projected by ZiPS to post the fourth-highest WAR total is actually entirely absent from the club’s depth chart, currently. That player is Nick Franklin, and the position to which he’s probably best suited (second base) is now occupied — and will be occupied for roughly the next decade — by Robinson Cano. A brief inspection of MLB Trade Rumors reveals that there’s a strong trade market for Franklin.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Robinson Cano	L	31	2B	670	82	171	37	2	22	85	6	2
Kyle Seager	L	26	3B	678	84	161	34	2	18	73	11	5
Brad Miller	L	24	SS	671	89	159	25	6	14	66	13	7
Nick Franklin	B	23	SS	593	70	131	27	4	15	62	11	2
Mike Zunino	R	23	C	491	66	103	19	1	14	51	2	1
Dustin Ackley	L	26	CF	648	84	146	27	4	10	53	8	3
Michael Saunders	L	27	LF	502	69	101	22	3	14	51	14	4
Ty Kelly	B	25	3B	607	62	135	21	2	4	42	5	5
Jesus Montero	R	24	C	433	40	97	17	2	12	46	0	1
Kendrys Morales	B	31	DH	492	54	119	22	0	17	61	0	1
Justin Smoak	B	27	1B	540	58	112	21	0	20	58	0	0
John Hicks	R	24	C	382	42	85	15	1	5	36	10	6
Manny Pina	R	27	C	285	25	56	12	0	4	20	0	0
Abraham Almonte	B	25	CF	506	62	108	19	4	8	38	18	6
Carlos Triunfel	R	24	SS	564	58	128	26	2	6	43	5	4
Corey Hart	R	32	RF	501	62	112	22	2	18	52	5	2
Nate Tenbrink	L	27	3B	395	47	76	13	3	9	35	9	4
Franklin Gutierrez	R	31	CF	365	39	77	18	1	8	35	8	3
Logan Morrison	L	26	1B	455	49	95	19	3	13	51	1	1
Ji-Man Choi	L	23	1B	455	55	97	21	3	11	46	1	3
Julio Morban	L	22	CF	406	46	91	16	3	8	39	5	2
Henry Blanco	R	42	C	110	10	20	5	0	2	12	0	0
Jason Bay	R	35	LF	297	34	56	8	1	9	26	5	1
Humberto Quintero	R	34	C	221	17	45	9	0	3	19	0	0
Jesus Sucre	R	26	C	264	24	60	8	0	1	19	1	1
Stefen Romero	R	25	LF	514	58	118	22	2	12	58	8	6
Brandon Bantz	R	27	C	221	20	40	7	1	2	15	1	2
Leon Landry	L	24	CF	537	54	116	20	6	5	41	19	10
Xavier Avery	L	24	LF	576	55	116	20	3	5	31	24	9
Jabari Blash	R	24	LF	502	56	100	15	2	12	42	11	8
Cole Gillespie	R	30	LF	444	45	86	15	3	7	37	8	3
Willie Bloomquist	R	36	2B	257	28	62	9	2	1	17	6	6
Ramon Morla	R	24	3B	502	52	100	18	3	9	46	10	6
Rich Poythress	R	26	1B	483	51	103	21	1	10	50	2	1
Jason Jaramillo	B	31	C	269	22	50	11	0	1	20	1	1
Carlos Peguero	L	27	RF	482	56	96	18	2	16	55	7	5
Endy Chavez	L	36	RF	269	24	63	9	1	2	16	4	3
Leury Bonilla	R	29	3B	296	29	59	6	1	2	20	4	6
James Jones	L	25	RF	492	55	99	16	5	5	38	17	9

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Robinson Cano	670	8.2%	14.0%	.178	.303	.284	.349	.462	.342
Kyle Seager	678	8.1%	17.7%	.150	.299	.264	.328	.414	.326
Brad Miller	671	7.9%	19.1%	.129	.308	.262	.320	.391	.313
Nick Franklin	593	9.4%	21.9%	.152	.301	.248	.321	.400	.318
Mike Zunino	491	7.3%	25.3%	.143	.288	.233	.299	.376	.297
Dustin Ackley	648	9.7%	17.7%	.112	.299	.253	.327	.365	.306
Michael Saunders	502	10.2%	26.7%	.158	.291	.228	.308	.386	.306
Ty Kelly	607	10.0%	18.3%	.069	.308	.252	.329	.321	.293
Jesus Montero	433	6.7%	22.2%	.143	.289	.244	.296	.387	.295
Kendrys Morales	492	6.9%	19.7%	.162	.300	.263	.319	.425	.321
Justin Smoak	540	11.1%	23.0%	.170	.275	.235	.322	.405	.321
John Hicks	382	3.7%	21.7%	.088	.290	.235	.268	.323	.261
Manny Pina	285	6.7%	18.6%	.093	.257	.218	.280	.311	.264
Abraham Almonte	506	7.9%	23.1%	.111	.298	.235	.297	.346	.287
Carlos Triunfel	564	3.2%	19.9%	.091	.295	.242	.280	.333	.270
Corey Hart	501	7.0%	24.6%	.175	.297	.246	.307	.421	.315
Nate Tenbrink	395	8.6%	31.9%	.131	.306	.217	.293	.348	.284
Franklin Gutierrez	365	5.2%	24.4%	.130	.282	.227	.270	.357	.274
Logan Morrison	455	10.8%	19.6%	.160	.273	.238	.325	.398	.315
Ji-Man Choi	455	8.4%	20.0%	.148	.281	.239	.315	.387	.308
Julio Morban	406	4.9%	33.3%	.121	.346	.238	.279	.359	.282
Henry Blanco	110	8.2%	26.4%	.111	.265	.202	.275	.313	.264
Jason Bay	297	10.4%	25.9%	.143	.266	.215	.301	.358	.294
Humberto Quintero	221	3.2%	24.4%	.087	.276	.216	.251	.303	.241
Jesus Sucre	264	3.8%	13.6%	.044	.276	.240	.271	.284	.246
Stefen Romero	514	4.3%	20.6%	.128	.288	.245	.284	.373	.287
Brandon Bantz	221	5.4%	28.5%	.075	.279	.200	.255	.275	.232
Leon Landry	537	3.9%	18.6%	.093	.277	.231	.264	.324	.255
Xavier Avery	576	7.6%	28.6%	.080	.318	.224	.289	.304	.267
Jabari Blash	502	8.8%	37.1%	.122	.346	.222	.299	.344	.286
Cole Gillespie	444	9.2%	24.3%	.106	.277	.217	.293	.323	.277
Willie Bloomquist	257	4.7%	14.4%	.067	.299	.257	.297	.324	.269
Ramon Morla	502	4.0%	34.5%	.107	.306	.211	.245	.318	.247
Rich Poythress	483	7.9%	20.5%	.120	.279	.235	.298	.355	.290
Jason Jaramillo	269	6.7%	23.8%	.056	.266	.202	.260	.258	.234
Carlos Peguero	482	6.2%	38.2%	.158	.324	.216	.272	.374	.281
Endy Chavez	269	3.3%	11.9%	.067	.275	.248	.272	.315	.252
Leury Bonilla	296	5.1%	27.0%	.051	.297	.216	.259	.267	.228
James Jones	492	6.7%	29.5%	.090	.308	.218	.273	.308	.259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Robinson Cano	670	6.1	131	4	5.5	Charlie Gehringer
Kyle Seager	678	5.0	111	-2	3.7	Edwin Encarnacion
Brad Miller	671	4.6	103	-2	3.4	Dick McAuliffe
Nick Franklin	593	4.8	106	-4	3.2	Jay Bell
Mike Zunino	491	4.0	92	-1	2.3	Todd Zeile
Dustin Ackley	648	4.4	99	-5	2.2	Jacob Cruz
Michael Saunders	502	4.3	98	5	1.7	Derek Lee
Ty Kelly	607	3.7	88	-2	1.5	Ernest Riles
Jesus Montero	433	4.0	94	-7	1.3	Javier Cardona
Kendrys Morales	492	4.9	111	0	1.3	David Segui
Justin Smoak	540	4.6	107	-2	1.2	Kila Ka’aihue
John Hicks	382	3.0	69	4	1.1	John Duncan
Manny Pina	285	3.0	70	3	1.0	Mike Ryan
Abraham Almonte	506	3.8	84	-3	1.0	Everett Graham
Carlos Triunfel	564	3.3	75	-1	0.9	Aurelio Rodriguez
Corey Hart	501	4.6	106	-7	0.9	Rick Reichardt
Nate Tenbrink	395	3.5	83	0	0.8	Rodney Choy Foo
Franklin Gutierrez	365	3.4	78	2	0.7	Les Norman
Logan Morrison	455	4.6	106	-3	0.7	Benny Distefano
Ji-Man Choi	455	4.2	100	0	0.7	Chris Richard
Julio Morban	406	3.6	82	-5	0.2	Gary Thomasson
Henry Blanco	110	2.9	69	-1	0.2	Raul Chavez
Jason Bay	297	3.8	88	-2	0.2	Bob Brenly
Humberto Quintero	221	2.6	58	1	0.2	Joe Oliver
Jesus Sucre	264	2.7	60	-1	0.1	Brian Bock
Stefen Romero	514	3.7	87	-1	0.1	Wes Chamberlain
Brandon Bantz	221	2.2	52	2	0.1	Dave Ullery
Leon Landry	537	3.0	68	0	0.0	Joe Mathis
Xavier Avery	576	3.2	71	4	-0.1	Troy O’Leary
Jabari Blash	502	3.5	84	-3	-0.1	Rod Allen
Cole Gillespie	444	3.3	77	0	-0.1	Adam Shabala
Willie Bloomquist	257	3.2	78	-5	-0.3	Jamey Carroll
Ramon Morla	502	2.6	60	2	-0.4	Ray Thoma
Rich Poythress	483	3.7	87	-3	-0.4	Adan Millan
Jason Jaramillo	269	2.2	50	-3	-0.4	Chad Moeller
Carlos Peguero	482	3.4	83	-4	-0.4	Ralph Bryant
Endy Chavez	269	3.0	68	-1	-0.6	Joe Orsulak
Leury Bonilla	296	2.1	52	0	-0.7	Luke Sable
James Jones	492	2.9	67	-2	-1.1	Herm Winningham

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Felix Hernandez	R	28	31	31	211.3	220	50	16	188	77	72
Hisashi Iwakuma	R	33	30	30	195.0	174	40	23	172	75	70
Taijuan Walker	R	21	23	23	137.0	122	58	14	129	66	62
Danny Farquhar	R	27	55	0	70.7	83	26	5	59	27	25
Charlie Furbush	L	28	65	0	60.3	76	25	6	47	22	21
Danny Hultzen	L	24	16	16	70.3	66	39	6	65	34	32
James Paxton	L	25	25	24	120.0	102	57	14	116	63	59
Erasmo Ramirez	R	24	26	22	127.0	96	43	16	130	67	63
Carson Smith	R	24	49	0	55.7	56	24	4	49	24	22
Tom Wilhelmsen	R	30	66	0	69.7	68	33	7	61	32	30
Oliver Perez	L	32	55	0	53.0	62	27	6	46	25	23
Nick Hill	L	29	44	0	48.3	52	25	4	43	22	21
Stephen Pryor	R	24	30	0	30.0	31	17	3	27	15	14
Joe Saunders	L	33	27	27	160.3	99	51	21	178	91	85
Yoervis Medina	R	25	60	0	70.7	72	44	8	62	35	33
Lucas Luetge	L	27	57	0	60.0	54	30	6	58	31	29
Kyle Hunter	L	25	37	2	66.0	43	23	8	71	36	34
Bobby LaFromboise	L	28	51	0	63.7	48	28	6	66	34	32
Brandon Maurer	R	23	28	23	130.0	96	59	15	141	77	72
Logan Bawcom	R	25	53	0	60.7	52	38	7	60	35	33
Brian Sweeney	R	40	25	8	69.7	38	25	11	81	47	44
Hector Noesi	R	27	31	16	114.0	75	44	19	130	75	70
Blake Beavan	R	25	28	24	152.3	74	36	25	181	98	92
Chance Ruffin	R	25	47	8	88.7	62	43	16	100	61	57
Anthony Fernandez	L	24	23	23	119.7	68	53	20	140	83	78
James Gillheeney	L	26	25	25	123.7	78	65	25	146	95	89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Felix Hernandez	211.3	872	25.2%	5.7%	.297	3.07	2.94	76	73
Hisashi Iwakuma	195.0	797	21.8%	5.0%	.267	3.23	3.57	80	88
Taijuan Walker	137.0	598	20.4%	9.7%	.291	4.07	4.23	101	105
Danny Farquhar	70.7	297	27.9%	8.8%	.298	3.18	2.91	79	72
Charlie Furbush	60.3	253	30.1%	9.9%	.287	3.13	3.26	77	81
Danny Hultzen	70.3	315	21.0%	12.4%	.297	4.09	4.35	101	108
James Paxton	120.0	533	19.1%	10.7%	.290	4.42	4.66	109	115
Erasmo Ramirez	127.0	554	17.3%	7.8%	.291	4.46	4.55	110	113
Carson Smith	55.7	240	23.3%	10.0%	.296	3.56	3.51	88	87
Tom Wilhelmsen	69.7	303	22.4%	10.9%	.280	3.88	3.93	96	97
Oliver Perez	53.0	232	26.7%	11.6%	.294	3.91	3.84	97	95
Nick Hill	48.3	213	24.4%	11.7%	.305	3.91	3.78	97	94
Stephen Pryor	30.0	134	23.1%	12.7%	.293	4.20	4.17	104	103
Joe Saunders	160.3	710	13.9%	7.2%	.293	4.77	4.66	118	115
Yoervis Medina	70.7	318	22.6%	13.8%	.284	4.20	4.50	104	111
Lucas Luetge	60.0	268	20.1%	11.2%	.297	4.35	4.24	108	105
Kyle Hunter	66.0	292	14.7%	7.9%	.296	4.64	4.79	115	118
Bobby LaFromboise	63.7	285	16.8%	9.8%	.301	4.52	4.32	112	107
Brandon Maurer	130.0	590	16.3%	10.0%	.307	4.98	4.83	123	120
Logan Bawcom	60.7	280	18.6%	13.6%	.296	4.90	5.10	121	126
Brian Sweeney	69.7	315	12.1%	7.9%	.296	5.68	5.49	141	136
Hector Noesi	114.0	516	14.5%	8.5%	.298	5.53	5.30	137	131
Blake Beavan	152.3	674	11.0%	5.3%	.294	5.44	5.27	135	130
Chance Ruffin	88.7	409	15.2%	10.5%	.299	5.79	5.84	143	145
Anthony Fernandez	119.7	552	12.3%	9.6%	.298	5.87	5.80	145	144
James Gillheeney	123.7	582	13.4%	11.2%	.298	6.48	6.38	160	158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Felix Hernandez	211.3	9.37	2.13	0.68	120	4.2	Roy Oswalt
Hisashi Iwakuma	195.0	8.03	1.85	1.06	114	3.5	Bartolo Colon
Taijuan Walker	137.0	8.01	3.81	0.92	90	1.0	Jason Schmidt
Danny Farquhar	70.7	10.57	3.31	0.64	116	0.6	Felix Rodriguez
Charlie Furbush	60.3	11.34	3.73	0.90	118	0.6	Will Ohman
Danny Hultzen	70.3	8.45	4.99	0.77	90	0.5	Al Leiter
James Paxton	120.0	7.65	4.28	1.05	83	0.4	Brandon Claussen
Erasmo Ramirez	127.0	6.80	3.05	1.13	83	0.3	Travis Thompson
Carson Smith	55.7	9.05	3.88	0.65	104	0.2	Saul Rivera
Tom Wilhelmsen	69.7	8.78	4.26	0.90	95	0.0	Marc Wilkins
Oliver Perez	53.0	10.53	4.58	1.02	94	0.0	Tim Fortugno
Nick Hill	48.3	9.69	4.66	0.75	94	0.0	Armando Almanza
Stephen Pryor	30.0	9.30	5.10	0.90	88	-0.1	Santiago Casilla
Joe Saunders	160.3	5.56	2.86	1.18	77	-0.1	Mark Hendrickson
Yoervis Medina	70.7	9.17	5.60	1.02	88	-0.2	Billy Sadler
Lucas Luetge	60.0	8.10	4.50	0.90	85	-0.3	Kevin Tolar
Kyle Hunter	66.0	5.86	3.14	1.09	79	-0.4	Kevin Ool
Bobby LaFromboise	63.7	6.78	3.96	0.85	81	-0.5	Carmen Cali
Brandon Maurer	130.0	6.65	4.08	1.04	74	-0.5	Rich Loiselle
Logan Bawcom	60.7	7.71	5.63	1.04	75	-0.7	Jason Gilfillan
Brian Sweeney	69.7	4.91	3.23	1.42	65	-1.0	Steve Sparks
Hector Noesi	114.0	5.92	3.47	1.50	67	-1.3	Mark Nussbeck
Blake Beavan	152.3	4.37	2.13	1.48	68	-1.4	Daniel Griffin
Chance Ruffin	88.7	6.29	4.36	1.62	64	-1.5	Brian Woods
Anthony Fernandez	119.7	5.11	3.98	1.50	63	-1.7	Joe Beimel
James Gillheeney	123.7	5.68	4.73	1.82	57	-2.6	Jeff Hundley

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.