2014 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners by Carson Cistulli December 27, 2013 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis. Batters ZiPS projects Robinson Cano, Brad Miller, and Kyle Seager to produce the most wins among all of Seattle’s field players this next season. The latter two differ from the first insofar as they’ll make entire truck loads less of American currency in 2014. The triumvirate all share a common trait, however, insofar as none of the three ever appeared on a Baseball America top-100 prospect list — a statement intended not as a comment on the great work done by BA, but merely on the unique paths shared by each. By all appearances, Corey Hart and Logan Morrison will actually share left-field and DH duties in 2014, an arrangement which the author hasn’t depicted on the very attractive depth-chart graphic below not because he was unaware of it (i.e. the arrangement), but because it would have been tedious and largely unnecessary extra work. Pitchers If one takes for granted that the Mariners’ timetable for contention has been altered dramatically by the recent signing of Robinson Cano, then one will also recognize that Seattle ought probably to address its starting rotation before the beginning of the 2014 season. This isn’t to say that James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are without promise; indeed, signs point to both of them developing into effective pitchers. What their respective records to date suggest, however, is that that they’re unlikely to prevent runs at the same rate as an average major-leaguer starter — i.e. the sort of starter the should probably occupy the third, fourth, and maybe even fifth rotation slots of a contending club. This next paragraph is a very short one in which the Mariners bullpen is invoked, because such a thing seems integral to this kind of post. Bench/Prospects The field player projected by ZiPS to post the fourth-highest WAR total is actually entirely absent from the club’s depth chart, currently. That player is Nick Franklin, and the position to which he’s probably best suited (second base) is now occupied — and will be occupied for roughly the next decade — by Robinson Cano. A brief inspection of MLB Trade Rumors reveals that there’s a strong trade market for Franklin. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Robinson Cano L 31 2B 670 82 171 37 2 22 85 6 2 Kyle Seager L 26 3B 678 84 161 34 2 18 73 11 5 Brad Miller L 24 SS 671 89 159 25 6 14 66 13 7 Nick Franklin B 23 SS 593 70 131 27 4 15 62 11 2 Mike Zunino R 23 C 491 66 103 19 1 14 51 2 1 Dustin Ackley L 26 CF 648 84 146 27 4 10 53 8 3 Michael Saunders L 27 LF 502 69 101 22 3 14 51 14 4 Ty Kelly B 25 3B 607 62 135 21 2 4 42 5 5 Jesus Montero R 24 C 433 40 97 17 2 12 46 0 1 Kendrys Morales B 31 DH 492 54 119 22 0 17 61 0 1 Justin Smoak B 27 1B 540 58 112 21 0 20 58 0 0 John Hicks R 24 C 382 42 85 15 1 5 36 10 6 Manny Pina R 27 C 285 25 56 12 0 4 20 0 0 Abraham Almonte B 25 CF 506 62 108 19 4 8 38 18 6 Carlos Triunfel R 24 SS 564 58 128 26 2 6 43 5 4 Corey Hart R 32 RF 501 62 112 22 2 18 52 5 2 Nate Tenbrink L 27 3B 395 47 76 13 3 9 35 9 4 Franklin Gutierrez R 31 CF 365 39 77 18 1 8 35 8 3 Logan Morrison L 26 1B 455 49 95 19 3 13 51 1 1 Ji-Man Choi L 23 1B 455 55 97 21 3 11 46 1 3 Julio Morban L 22 CF 406 46 91 16 3 8 39 5 2 Henry Blanco R 42 C 110 10 20 5 0 2 12 0 0 Jason Bay R 35 LF 297 34 56 8 1 9 26 5 1 Humberto Quintero R 34 C 221 17 45 9 0 3 19 0 0 Jesus Sucre R 26 C 264 24 60 8 0 1 19 1 1 Stefen Romero R 25 LF 514 58 118 22 2 12 58 8 6 Brandon Bantz R 27 C 221 20 40 7 1 2 15 1 2 Leon Landry L 24 CF 537 54 116 20 6 5 41 19 10 Xavier Avery L 24 LF 576 55 116 20 3 5 31 24 9 Jabari Blash R 24 LF 502 56 100 15 2 12 42 11 8 Cole Gillespie R 30 LF 444 45 86 15 3 7 37 8 3 Willie Bloomquist R 36 2B 257 28 62 9 2 1 17 6 6 Ramon Morla R 24 3B 502 52 100 18 3 9 46 10 6 Rich Poythress R 26 1B 483 51 103 21 1 10 50 2 1 Jason Jaramillo B 31 C 269 22 50 11 0 1 20 1 1 Carlos Peguero L 27 RF 482 56 96 18 2 16 55 7 5 Endy Chavez L 36 RF 269 24 63 9 1 2 16 4 3 Leury Bonilla R 29 3B 296 29 59 6 1 2 20 4 6 James Jones L 25 RF 492 55 99 16 5 5 38 17 9 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Robinson Cano 670 8.2% 14.0% .178 .303 .284 .349 .462 .342 Kyle Seager 678 8.1% 17.7% .150 .299 .264 .328 .414 .326 Brad Miller 671 7.9% 19.1% .129 .308 .262 .320 .391 .313 Nick Franklin 593 9.4% 21.9% .152 .301 .248 .321 .400 .318 Mike Zunino 491 7.3% 25.3% .143 .288 .233 .299 .376 .297 Dustin Ackley 648 9.7% 17.7% .112 .299 .253 .327 .365 .306 Michael Saunders 502 10.2% 26.7% .158 .291 .228 .308 .386 .306 Ty Kelly 607 10.0% 18.3% .069 .308 .252 .329 .321 .293 Jesus Montero 433 6.7% 22.2% .143 .289 .244 .296 .387 .295 Kendrys Morales 492 6.9% 19.7% .162 .300 .263 .319 .425 .321 Justin Smoak 540 11.1% 23.0% .170 .275 .235 .322 .405 .321 John Hicks 382 3.7% 21.7% .088 .290 .235 .268 .323 .261 Manny Pina 285 6.7% 18.6% .093 .257 .218 .280 .311 .264 Abraham Almonte 506 7.9% 23.1% .111 .298 .235 .297 .346 .287 Carlos Triunfel 564 3.2% 19.9% .091 .295 .242 .280 .333 .270 Corey Hart 501 7.0% 24.6% .175 .297 .246 .307 .421 .315 Nate Tenbrink 395 8.6% 31.9% .131 .306 .217 .293 .348 .284 Franklin Gutierrez 365 5.2% 24.4% .130 .282 .227 .270 .357 .274 Logan Morrison 455 10.8% 19.6% .160 .273 .238 .325 .398 .315 Ji-Man Choi 455 8.4% 20.0% .148 .281 .239 .315 .387 .308 Julio Morban 406 4.9% 33.3% .121 .346 .238 .279 .359 .282 Henry Blanco 110 8.2% 26.4% .111 .265 .202 .275 .313 .264 Jason Bay 297 10.4% 25.9% .143 .266 .215 .301 .358 .294 Humberto Quintero 221 3.2% 24.4% .087 .276 .216 .251 .303 .241 Jesus Sucre 264 3.8% 13.6% .044 .276 .240 .271 .284 .246 Stefen Romero 514 4.3% 20.6% .128 .288 .245 .284 .373 .287 Brandon Bantz 221 5.4% 28.5% .075 .279 .200 .255 .275 .232 Leon Landry 537 3.9% 18.6% .093 .277 .231 .264 .324 .255 Xavier Avery 576 7.6% 28.6% .080 .318 .224 .289 .304 .267 Jabari Blash 502 8.8% 37.1% .122 .346 .222 .299 .344 .286 Cole Gillespie 444 9.2% 24.3% .106 .277 .217 .293 .323 .277 Willie Bloomquist 257 4.7% 14.4% .067 .299 .257 .297 .324 .269 Ramon Morla 502 4.0% 34.5% .107 .306 .211 .245 .318 .247 Rich Poythress 483 7.9% 20.5% .120 .279 .235 .298 .355 .290 Jason Jaramillo 269 6.7% 23.8% .056 .266 .202 .260 .258 .234 Carlos Peguero 482 6.2% 38.2% .158 .324 .216 .272 .374 .281 Endy Chavez 269 3.3% 11.9% .067 .275 .248 .272 .315 .252 Leury Bonilla 296 5.1% 27.0% .051 .297 .216 .259 .267 .228 James Jones 492 6.7% 29.5% .090 .308 .218 .273 .308 .259 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Robinson Cano 670 6.1 131 4 5.5 Charlie Gehringer Kyle Seager 678 5.0 111 -2 3.7 Edwin Encarnacion Brad Miller 671 4.6 103 -2 3.4 Dick McAuliffe Nick Franklin 593 4.8 106 -4 3.2 Jay Bell Mike Zunino 491 4.0 92 -1 2.3 Todd Zeile Dustin Ackley 648 4.4 99 -5 2.2 Jacob Cruz Michael Saunders 502 4.3 98 5 1.7 Derek Lee Ty Kelly 607 3.7 88 -2 1.5 Ernest Riles Jesus Montero 433 4.0 94 -7 1.3 Javier Cardona Kendrys Morales 492 4.9 111 0 1.3 David Segui Justin Smoak 540 4.6 107 -2 1.2 Kila Ka’aihue John Hicks 382 3.0 69 4 1.1 John Duncan Manny Pina 285 3.0 70 3 1.0 Mike Ryan Abraham Almonte 506 3.8 84 -3 1.0 Everett Graham Carlos Triunfel 564 3.3 75 -1 0.9 Aurelio Rodriguez Corey Hart 501 4.6 106 -7 0.9 Rick Reichardt Nate Tenbrink 395 3.5 83 0 0.8 Rodney Choy Foo Franklin Gutierrez 365 3.4 78 2 0.7 Les Norman Logan Morrison 455 4.6 106 -3 0.7 Benny Distefano Ji-Man Choi 455 4.2 100 0 0.7 Chris Richard Julio Morban 406 3.6 82 -5 0.2 Gary Thomasson Henry Blanco 110 2.9 69 -1 0.2 Raul Chavez Jason Bay 297 3.8 88 -2 0.2 Bob Brenly Humberto Quintero 221 2.6 58 1 0.2 Joe Oliver Jesus Sucre 264 2.7 60 -1 0.1 Brian Bock Stefen Romero 514 3.7 87 -1 0.1 Wes Chamberlain Brandon Bantz 221 2.2 52 2 0.1 Dave Ullery Leon Landry 537 3.0 68 0 0.0 Joe Mathis Xavier Avery 576 3.2 71 4 -0.1 Troy O’Leary Jabari Blash 502 3.5 84 -3 -0.1 Rod Allen Cole Gillespie 444 3.3 77 0 -0.1 Adam Shabala Willie Bloomquist 257 3.2 78 -5 -0.3 Jamey Carroll Ramon Morla 502 2.6 60 2 -0.4 Ray Thoma Rich Poythress 483 3.7 87 -3 -0.4 Adan Millan Jason Jaramillo 269 2.2 50 -3 -0.4 Chad Moeller Carlos Peguero 482 3.4 83 -4 -0.4 Ralph Bryant Endy Chavez 269 3.0 68 -1 -0.6 Joe Orsulak Leury Bonilla 296 2.1 52 0 -0.7 Luke Sable James Jones 492 2.9 67 -2 -1.1 Herm Winningham *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Felix Hernandez R 28 31 31 211.3 220 50 16 188 77 72 Hisashi Iwakuma R 33 30 30 195.0 174 40 23 172 75 70 Taijuan Walker R 21 23 23 137.0 122 58 14 129 66 62 Danny Farquhar R 27 55 0 70.7 83 26 5 59 27 25 Charlie Furbush L 28 65 0 60.3 76 25 6 47 22 21 Danny Hultzen L 24 16 16 70.3 66 39 6 65 34 32 James Paxton L 25 25 24 120.0 102 57 14 116 63 59 Erasmo Ramirez R 24 26 22 127.0 96 43 16 130 67 63 Carson Smith R 24 49 0 55.7 56 24 4 49 24 22 Tom Wilhelmsen R 30 66 0 69.7 68 33 7 61 32 30 Oliver Perez L 32 55 0 53.0 62 27 6 46 25 23 Nick Hill L 29 44 0 48.3 52 25 4 43 22 21 Stephen Pryor R 24 30 0 30.0 31 17 3 27 15 14 Joe Saunders L 33 27 27 160.3 99 51 21 178 91 85 Yoervis Medina R 25 60 0 70.7 72 44 8 62 35 33 Lucas Luetge L 27 57 0 60.0 54 30 6 58 31 29 Kyle Hunter L 25 37 2 66.0 43 23 8 71 36 34 Bobby LaFromboise L 28 51 0 63.7 48 28 6 66 34 32 Brandon Maurer R 23 28 23 130.0 96 59 15 141 77 72 Logan Bawcom R 25 53 0 60.7 52 38 7 60 35 33 Brian Sweeney R 40 25 8 69.7 38 25 11 81 47 44 Hector Noesi R 27 31 16 114.0 75 44 19 130 75 70 Blake Beavan R 25 28 24 152.3 74 36 25 181 98 92 Chance Ruffin R 25 47 8 88.7 62 43 16 100 61 57 Anthony Fernandez L 24 23 23 119.7 68 53 20 140 83 78 James Gillheeney L 26 25 25 123.7 78 65 25 146 95 89 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Felix Hernandez 211.3 872 25.2% 5.7% .297 3.07 2.94 76 73 Hisashi Iwakuma 195.0 797 21.8% 5.0% .267 3.23 3.57 80 88 Taijuan Walker 137.0 598 20.4% 9.7% .291 4.07 4.23 101 105 Danny Farquhar 70.7 297 27.9% 8.8% .298 3.18 2.91 79 72 Charlie Furbush 60.3 253 30.1% 9.9% .287 3.13 3.26 77 81 Danny Hultzen 70.3 315 21.0% 12.4% .297 4.09 4.35 101 108 James Paxton 120.0 533 19.1% 10.7% .290 4.42 4.66 109 115 Erasmo Ramirez 127.0 554 17.3% 7.8% .291 4.46 4.55 110 113 Carson Smith 55.7 240 23.3% 10.0% .296 3.56 3.51 88 87 Tom Wilhelmsen 69.7 303 22.4% 10.9% .280 3.88 3.93 96 97 Oliver Perez 53.0 232 26.7% 11.6% .294 3.91 3.84 97 95 Nick Hill 48.3 213 24.4% 11.7% .305 3.91 3.78 97 94 Stephen Pryor 30.0 134 23.1% 12.7% .293 4.20 4.17 104 103 Joe Saunders 160.3 710 13.9% 7.2% .293 4.77 4.66 118 115 Yoervis Medina 70.7 318 22.6% 13.8% .284 4.20 4.50 104 111 Lucas Luetge 60.0 268 20.1% 11.2% .297 4.35 4.24 108 105 Kyle Hunter 66.0 292 14.7% 7.9% .296 4.64 4.79 115 118 Bobby LaFromboise 63.7 285 16.8% 9.8% .301 4.52 4.32 112 107 Brandon Maurer 130.0 590 16.3% 10.0% .307 4.98 4.83 123 120 Logan Bawcom 60.7 280 18.6% 13.6% .296 4.90 5.10 121 126 Brian Sweeney 69.7 315 12.1% 7.9% .296 5.68 5.49 141 136 Hector Noesi 114.0 516 14.5% 8.5% .298 5.53 5.30 137 131 Blake Beavan 152.3 674 11.0% 5.3% .294 5.44 5.27 135 130 Chance Ruffin 88.7 409 15.2% 10.5% .299 5.79 5.84 143 145 Anthony Fernandez 119.7 552 12.3% 9.6% .298 5.87 5.80 145 144 James Gillheeney 123.7 582 13.4% 11.2% .298 6.48 6.38 160 158 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Felix Hernandez 211.3 9.37 2.13 0.68 120 4.2 Roy Oswalt Hisashi Iwakuma 195.0 8.03 1.85 1.06 114 3.5 Bartolo Colon Taijuan Walker 137.0 8.01 3.81 0.92 90 1.0 Jason Schmidt Danny Farquhar 70.7 10.57 3.31 0.64 116 0.6 Felix Rodriguez Charlie Furbush 60.3 11.34 3.73 0.90 118 0.6 Will Ohman Danny Hultzen 70.3 8.45 4.99 0.77 90 0.5 Al Leiter James Paxton 120.0 7.65 4.28 1.05 83 0.4 Brandon Claussen Erasmo Ramirez 127.0 6.80 3.05 1.13 83 0.3 Travis Thompson Carson Smith 55.7 9.05 3.88 0.65 104 0.2 Saul Rivera Tom Wilhelmsen 69.7 8.78 4.26 0.90 95 0.0 Marc Wilkins Oliver Perez 53.0 10.53 4.58 1.02 94 0.0 Tim Fortugno Nick Hill 48.3 9.69 4.66 0.75 94 0.0 Armando Almanza Stephen Pryor 30.0 9.30 5.10 0.90 88 -0.1 Santiago Casilla Joe Saunders 160.3 5.56 2.86 1.18 77 -0.1 Mark Hendrickson Yoervis Medina 70.7 9.17 5.60 1.02 88 -0.2 Billy Sadler Lucas Luetge 60.0 8.10 4.50 0.90 85 -0.3 Kevin Tolar Kyle Hunter 66.0 5.86 3.14 1.09 79 -0.4 Kevin Ool Bobby LaFromboise 63.7 6.78 3.96 0.85 81 -0.5 Carmen Cali Brandon Maurer 130.0 6.65 4.08 1.04 74 -0.5 Rich Loiselle Logan Bawcom 60.7 7.71 5.63 1.04 75 -0.7 Jason Gilfillan Brian Sweeney 69.7 4.91 3.23 1.42 65 -1.0 Steve Sparks Hector Noesi 114.0 5.92 3.47 1.50 67 -1.3 Mark Nussbeck Blake Beavan 152.3 4.37 2.13 1.48 68 -1.4 Daniel Griffin Chance Ruffin 88.7 6.29 4.36 1.62 64 -1.5 Brian Woods Anthony Fernandez 119.7 5.11 3.98 1.50 63 -1.7 Joe Beimel James Gillheeney 123.7 5.68 4.73 1.82 57 -2.6 Jeff Hundley *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.