2014 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis.

Batters
Certain clubs over the past 20 or so years have featured celebrated pairs of teammates: Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire*, for example, who played together on the late-80s Oakland clubs or David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez on the mid-aught Boston ones or, more recently, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder with Detroit. It’s entirely possible, however, that the combination of Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist is more formidable than any of those in terms of all-around production. Defensively, based on their ZiPS projections, each is at least as valuable afield as a league-average shortstop (and a bit more than that, in Longoria’s case).

With regard to the precise location of certain players on the depth-chart graphic below, one is compelled to acknowledge that, as in recent seasons, manager Joe Maddon is likely both to utilize platoons more than is suggested by that same graphic and also probably to use the DH slot for the sake of flexibility rather than as a lineup spot merely for, say, Matt Joyce alone. It would be interesting to see outfielder and right-handed-batting Brandon Guyer receive a substantive number of at-bats after several decent offensive seasons at Triple-A.

Pitchers
For reasons that are pretty obvious, Seattle has been rumored to have interest in left-hander David Price, whose contract demands Tampa Bay might have some difficulty meeting in the near future. To get a sense of the Rays relative depth, however, consider this possibly spurious claim: were they to deal Price to Seattle, Tampa Bay’s rotation would have a total projected zWAR of only about two fewer wins than the latter club’s rotation to begin the 2014 season (about 13 vs. 11, assuming Jake Odorizzi claimed the fifth-starter spot).

With the acquisition this offseason of Heath Bell (in the three-team deal, incidentally, that also produced for them Ryan Hanigan), Tampa Bay now offers beaucoup de options for high-leverage innings in its bullpen, which also features Jake McGee and Juan Oviedo, the latter of whom re-signed this offseason with a Rays club for whom he has yet to record an inning, owing to injury.

Bench/Prospects
ZiPS — or, at least, the computer math which informs ZiPS — isn’t particularly optimistic about the capacity for any of Tampa Bay’s prospects to make a substantial impact in 2014. Among field players, Hak-Ju Lee possesses perhaps the most interesting combination of present ability and youth; however, he missed almost the entirety of the 2013 season with a knee injury. Ryan Brett, meanwhile, is probably not considered the jewel of the minor-league system, and yet he also has received rather an encouraging projection for his age. Alex Colome (25), Jake Odorizzi (24), Enny Romero (23) all recorded major-league appearances in 2014, although none is likely to prevent runs at a league-average rate yet, according to ZiPS.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Evan Longoria	R	28	3B	588	77	133	29	2	26	85	4	2
Ben Zobrist	B	33	2B	647	81	146	33	4	15	72	14	5
Desmond Jennings	R	27	CF	633	92	139	27	7	15	54	27	6
Yunel Escobar	R	31	SS	576	59	131	22	1	8	48	4	3
Wil Myers	R	23	RF	659	83	156	28	3	23	83	9	3
Matt Joyce	L	29	LF	471	59	100	23	2	16	56	7	3
Ryan Hanigan	R	33	C	297	21	64	10	0	2	25	0	0
Jose Molina	R	39	C	274	24	56	11	0	4	21	2	1
Hak-Ju Lee	L	23	SS	294	31	65	8	4	3	21	17	6
Jose Lobaton	B	29	C	294	28	60	13	1	6	30	0	1
Curt Casali	R	25	C	360	39	75	16	0	6	34	1	0
Sean Rodriguez	R	29	LF	318	35	65	15	2	7	31	5	3
David DeJesus	L	34	CF	466	56	100	22	3	8	40	5	4
James Loney	L	30	1B	569	51	141	29	0	10	65	3	2
Tim Beckham	R	24	SS	521	59	114	19	4	6	42	12	4
Cole Figueroa	L	27	3B	538	59	123	18	4	3	45	7	4
Kevin Kiermaier	L	24	CF	489	51	109	14	8	4	36	16	9
Ryan Brett	B	22	2B	441	50	105	17	3	6	35	27	9
Rich Thompson	L	35	CF	355	40	75	11	4	2	22	23	4
Brandon Guyer	R	28	RF	386	50	89	18	4	7	35	14	3
Sam Fuld	L	32	LF	239	31	50	7	4	2	18	10	5
Luke Scott	L	36	DH	317	32	66	15	1	11	42	2	1
Jake Hager	R	21	SS	543	51	118	17	2	3	36	12	11
Richie Shaffer	R	23	3B	548	52	113	25	0	11	54	5	0
Vince Belnome	L	26	1B	466	53	96	20	1	8	45	1	2
Mike Fontenot	L	34	2B	324	29	70	14	1	3	22	3	1
Todd Glaesmann	R	23	LF	558	56	123	24	3	11	52	6	3
Delmon Young	R	28	RF	536	51	125	23	1	15	63	1	1
Mikie Mahtook	R	24	RF	580	58	127	25	5	6	49	18	8
Freddy Guzman	B	33	LF	364	39	73	12	4	3	27	28	7
Jesus Flores	R	29	C	282	21	54	13	0	4	23	0	1
Leslie Anderson	L	32	1B	482	44	111	19	1	8	44	1	3
Shelley Duncan	R	34	1B	363	36	69	15	0	10	42	1	1
Drew Vettleson	L	22	RF	566	55	125	23	4	7	49	8	11

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Evan Longoria	588	11.2%	21.4%	.217	.292	.260	.345	.477	.349
Ben Zobrist	647	11.7%	15.8%	.154	.292	.261	.350	.415	.335
Desmond Jennings	633	9.5%	20.2%	.154	.296	.249	.326	.403	.324
Yunel Escobar	576	8.3%	12.3%	.093	.280	.255	.321	.348	.295
Wil Myers	659	8.3%	24.7%	.174	.321	.263	.326	.437	.330
Matt Joyce	471	11.7%	20.6%	.184	.281	.246	.338	.430	.334
Ryan Hanigan	297	11.1%	11.1%	.062	.278	.249	.342	.311	.280
Jose Molina	274	6.9%	21.5%	.092	.277	.225	.283	.317	.265
Hak-Ju Lee	294	7.5%	22.8%	.093	.312	.242	.301	.335	.287
Jose Lobaton	294	10.2%	22.4%	.127	.286	.232	.312	.359	.295
Curt Casali	360	7.2%	19.4%	.104	.274	.229	.295	.333	.281
Sean Rodriguez	318	7.5%	23.6%	.143	.291	.233	.310	.376	.298
David DeJesus	466	8.6%	18.7%	.125	.286	.241	.317	.366	.302
James Loney	569	7.0%	12.5%	.113	.294	.270	.320	.382	.302
Tim Beckham	521	6.1%	23.2%	.095	.306	.239	.289	.334	.275
Cole Figueroa	538	7.4%	9.1%	.072	.275	.254	.314	.326	.283
Kevin Kiermaier	489	5.9%	21.9%	.094	.311	.244	.298	.338	.280
Ryan Brett	441	5.0%	18.8%	.099	.303	.254	.295	.353	.290
Rich Thompson	355	5.1%	18.6%	.078	.286	.233	.289	.311	.272
Brandon Guyer	386	4.9%	18.7%	.134	.298	.253	.306	.386	.307
Sam Fuld	239	8.8%	14.2%	.099	.270	.235	.305	.333	.283
Luke Scott	317	8.2%	23.3%	.177	.272	.233	.303	.410	.309
Jake Hager	543	5.3%	20.3%	.060	.292	.235	.278	.294	.252
Richie Shaffer	548	4.6%	27.4%	.113	.285	.221	.259	.334	.264
Vince Belnome	466	11.6%	26.4%	.113	.315	.235	.325	.348	.302
Mike Fontenot	324	6.2%	20.4%	.084	.293	.236	.292	.321	.272
Todd Glaesmann	558	3.8%	26.0%	.120	.301	.235	.273	.356	.275
Delmon Young	536	4.3%	20.7%	.139	.288	.249	.285	.388	.294
Mikie Mahtook	580	5.3%	23.4%	.099	.304	.237	.288	.336	.279
Freddy Guzman	364	6.3%	25.5%	.086	.289	.217	.268	.304	.262
Jesus Flores	282	3.5%	25.9%	.094	.260	.202	.235	.296	.231
Leslie Anderson	482	5.0%	13.9%	.100	.273	.247	.293	.347	.280
Shelley Duncan	363	8.3%	24.2%	.138	.254	.211	.281	.349	.279
Drew Vettleson	566	5.7%	22.8%	.098	.298	.237	.280	.335	.267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Evan Longoria	588	6.0	130	9	5.2	Scott Rolen
Ben Zobrist	647	5.4	116	5	4.6	Lou Whitaker
Desmond Jennings	633	5.0	105	-2	3.1	Mike Cameron
Yunel Escobar	576	4.0	90	4	2.6	Edgardo Alfonzo
Wil Myers	659	5.3	114	-1	2.5	Danny Tartabull
Matt Joyce	471	5.2	115	0	2.0	Josh Willingham
Ryan Hanigan	297	3.8	87	3	1.5	Gene Desautels
Jose Molina	274	3.1	70	6	1.2	Elston Howard
Hak-Ju Lee	294	3.8	80	3	1.2	Juan Bell
Jose Lobaton	294	3.9	89	-1	1.2	Chad Moeller
Curt Casali	360	3.5	78	-2	1.0	Wyatt Toregas
Sean Rodriguez	318	4.1	93	4	1.0	Jeff Guiel
David DeJesus	466	4.1	93	-5	0.9	Andy Van Slyke
James Loney	569	4.5	98	4	0.9	Sean Casey
Tim Beckham	521	3.5	76	-2	0.9	Royce Clayton
Cole Figueroa	538	3.7	82	-1	0.9	Luis Figueroa
Kevin Kiermaier	489	3.5	80	0	0.8	Bubba Crosby
Ryan Brett	441	4.0	82	-2	0.8	Juan Bell
Rich Thompson	355	3.7	70	2	0.7	Vince Coleman
Brandon Guyer	386	4.5	95	-2	0.6	Mariano Duncan
Sam Fuld	239	3.6	81	5	0.6	Alex Cora
Luke Scott	317	4.4	99	0	0.4	Chris Richard
Jake Hager	543	2.7	62	4	0.4	Fred Manrique
Richie Shaffer	548	3.1	66	3	0.2	Glenn Williams
Vince Belnome	466	3.9	91	0	0.2	Don Barbara
Mike Fontenot	324	3.3	73	-2	0.0	Dave Berg
Todd Glaesmann	558	3.4	76	4	0.0	Francisco Batista
Delmon Young	536	4.0	88	-6	-0.3	Ken Harvey
Mikie Mahtook	580	3.5	76	0	-0.3	Darnell McDonald
Freddy Guzman	364	3.2	62	2	-0.4	Mark Budzinski
Jesus Flores	282	2.3	49	-2	-0.5	Charlie Greene
Leslie Anderson	482	3.5	80	0	-0.7	Jim Bowie
Shelley Duncan	363	3.3	77	-2	-0.8	Jody Davis
Drew Vettleson	566	3.0	73	-4	-1.3	Rich Butler

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
David Price	L	28	30	30	198.0	189	46	18	174	73	68
Matt Moore	L	25	31	30	171.3	180	75	16	144	70	65
Alex Cobb	R	26	27	27	157.7	140	53	13	142	62	58
Chris Archer	R	25	30	29	152.3	131	60	15	141	67	63
Jeremy Hellickson	R	27	29	29	164.0	126	53	22	157	80	75
Jake McGee	L	27	70	0	61.0	75	20	7	48	22	21
Jeff Niemann	R	31	14	14	72.0	53	23	9	71	35	33
Fernando Rodney	R	37	57	0	53.3	60	24	4	41	19	18
Joel Peralta	R	38	69	0	59.3	68	23	7	46	22	21
Jesse Crain	R	32	47	0	45.7	52	17	4	37	16	15
Jake Odorizzi	R	24	27	25	136.0	100	62	17	135	74	69
Jamey Wright	R	39	55	0	58.7	51	22	4	54	25	23
Alex Torres	L	26	61	0	65.0	69	43	5	53	29	27
Heath Bell	R	36	62	0	59.0	56	19	7	56	27	25
Josh Lueke	R	29	53	0	72.0	61	29	6	70	34	32
Merrill Kelly	R	25	28	20	117.0	80	58	12	123	67	63
Brandon Gomes	R	29	50	0	52.3	53	20	7	48	26	24
Juan Oviedo	R	32	18	0	16.7	14	6	2	16	9	8
Jeff Beliveau	L	27	51	0	57.7	58	32	7	53	29	27
Cesar Ramos	L	30	48	2	65.3	50	26	8	64	34	32
Kirby Yates	R	27	51	0	59.0	59	38	6	52	30	28
Mark Lowe	R	31	43	0	45.7	41	21	6	43	24	22
Alex Colome	R	25	20	20	96.7	67	62	11	98	58	54
Felipe Rivero	L	22	25	21	109.7	68	56	13	117	65	61
J.D. Martin	R	31	26	20	122.3	61	28	20	140	73	68
Sam Runion	R	25	39	0	60.3	35	23	6	63	32	30
Steve Geltz	R	26	43	0	56.0	52	30	8	53	31	29
C.J. Riefenhauser	L	24	54	0	65.7	51	30	9	66	36	34
Enny Romero	L	23	26	26	119.7	98	90	14	118	75	70
Adam Liberatore	L	27	44	0	67.3	43	38	6	70	39	36
Mike Montgomery	L	24	23	22	118.3	65	63	18	131	79	74
Victor Mateo	R	24	27	21	119.0	57	71	22	137	90	84

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
David Price	198.0	814	23.3%	5.6%	.281	3.09	3.01	81	78
Matt Moore	171.3	733	24.5%	10.2%	.280	3.41	3.52	89	92
Alex Cobb	157.7	668	21.0%	7.9%	.283	3.31	3.34	86	87
Chris Archer	152.3	658	19.9%	9.1%	.284	3.72	3.95	97	103
Jeremy Hellickson	164.0	703	17.9%	7.6%	.272	4.12	4.22	107	110
Jake McGee	61.0	251	29.9%	7.8%	.279	3.10	2.81	81	73
Jeff Niemann	72.0	310	17.3%	7.4%	.279	4.12	4.22	107	110
Fernando Rodney	53.3	226	26.6%	10.8%	.277	3.04	3.11	79	81
Joel Peralta	59.3	248	27.6%	9.5%	.265	3.19	3.29	83	86
Jesse Crain	45.7	190	27.4%	8.7%	.280	2.96	2.93	77	76
Jake Odorizzi	136.0	604	16.6%	10.2%	.282	4.57	4.72	119	123
Jamey Wright	58.7	253	20.0%	8.8%	.293	3.53	3.33	92	87
Alex Torres	65.0	291	23.5%	14.9%	.283	3.74	4.05	97	106
Heath Bell	59.0	252	22.2%	7.5%	.290	3.81	3.67	99	96
Josh Lueke	72.0	315	19.4%	9.3%	.295	4.00	3.81	104	99
Merrill Kelly	117.0	532	15.0%	10.9%	.297	4.85	4.70	126	122
Brandon Gomes	52.3	225	23.7%	8.7%	.292	4.13	3.80	108	99
Juan Oviedo	16.7	72	19.0%	8.8%	.275	4.32	4.05	113	106
Jeff Beliveau	57.7	257	22.5%	12.3%	.292	4.21	4.28	110	112
Cesar Ramos	65.3	286	17.7%	9.1%	.280	4.41	4.21	115	110
Kirby Yates	59.0	268	21.9%	14.3%	.288	4.27	4.38	111	114
Mark Lowe	45.7	201	20.6%	10.4%	.281	4.34	4.26	113	111
Alex Colome	96.7	450	14.9%	13.7%	.287	5.03	5.22	131	136
Felipe Rivero	109.7	502	13.5%	11.2%	.290	5.01	5.02	130	131
J.D. Martin	122.3	535	11.4%	5.2%	.288	5.00	4.96	130	129
Sam Runion	60.3	267	13.1%	8.7%	.285	4.48	4.45	117	116
Steve Geltz	56.0	250	20.7%	11.8%	.285	4.66	4.76	121	124
C.J. Riefenhauser	65.7	293	17.3%	10.1%	.287	4.66	4.85	121	126
Enny Romero	119.7	567	17.3%	15.9%	.293	5.26	5.32	137	139
Adam Liberatore	67.3	310	13.8%	12.3%	.291	4.81	4.82	125	126
Mike Montgomery	118.3	549	11.9%	11.6%	.286	5.63	5.68	147	148
Victor Mateo	119.0	565	10.1%	12.5%	.284	6.35	6.36	166	166

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
David Price	198.0	8.61	2.08	0.82	124	4.3	Denny Neagle
Matt Moore	171.3	9.44	3.92	0.86	112	3.0	Mark Langston
Alex Cobb	157.7	8.00	3.03	0.73	115	3.0	Jason Schmidt
Chris Archer	152.3	7.73	3.53	0.91	103	2.1	Ken Hill
Jeremy Hellickson	164.0	6.90	2.92	1.22	93	1.5	Al Nipper
Jake McGee	61.0	11.06	2.88	1.00	123	0.7	Mark Guthrie
Jeff Niemann	72.0	6.68	2.88	1.12	93	0.7	Chris Oxspring
Fernando Rodney	53.3	10.14	4.12	0.64	126	0.7	Jeff Nelson
Joel Peralta	59.3	10.37	3.56	1.00	120	0.6	Greg Harris
Jesse Crain	45.7	10.27	3.26	0.82	129	0.6	Jeff Nelson
Jake Odorizzi	136.0	6.63	4.09	1.14	84	0.5	Kirt Ojala
Jamey Wright	58.7	7.77	3.42	0.63	108	0.4	Jose Mesa
Alex Torres	65.0	9.49	6.02	0.67	102	0.3	Armando Almanza
Heath Bell	59.0	8.52	2.88	1.11	100	0.2	Rick White
Josh Lueke	72.0	7.64	3.64	0.81	96	0.1	Mike Bumstead
Merrill Kelly	117.0	6.12	4.47	0.94	79	0.0	Tim Byron
Brandon Gomes	52.3	9.16	3.37	1.19	93	0.0	Jeff Austin
Juan Oviedo	16.7	7.40	3.43	1.07	89	-0.1	Kirk Bullinger
Jeff Beliveau	57.7	9.04	4.93	1.07	91	-0.1	Greg McCarthy
Cesar Ramos	65.3	6.95	3.56	1.15	87	-0.1	Pat Clements
Kirby Yates	59.0	8.93	5.85	0.90	90	-0.2	Calvin Jones
Mark Lowe	45.7	8.15	4.11	1.17	88	-0.2	Mike Cook
Alex Colome	96.7	6.24	5.74	1.02	76	-0.2	Edwin Morel
Felipe Rivero	109.7	5.56	4.60	1.07	76	-0.2	Matt Coenen
J.D. Martin	122.3	4.49	2.06	1.44	76	-0.2	Dave Johnson
Sam Runion	60.3	5.22	3.46	0.90	85	-0.3	Andy Nezelek
Steve Geltz	56.0	8.33	4.74	1.29	82	-0.4	Craig Dingman
C.J. Riefenhauser	65.7	6.95	4.07	1.25	82	-0.5	Steve Stowell
Enny Romero	119.7	7.39	6.80	1.03	73	-0.6	Jordan Pals
Adam Liberatore	67.3	5.71	5.08	0.84	79	-0.6	Brian Adams
Mike Montgomery	118.3	4.96	4.83	1.36	68	-1.1	Mike Hinckley
Victor Mateo	119.0	4.33	5.33	1.67	60	-2.2	Brian Adams

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.