Archive for January, 2014

Quick and Lazy Team-by-Team 2014 Framing Projections

Just because there aren’t any pitches being framed these days doesn’t mean we can’t still talk about pitch-framing. When the Yankees picked up Brian McCann, it got me thinking about how well they’re going to frame as a team. When the Pirates picked up Chris Stewart, I tweeted out they might be the best framing team in baseball. It was a statement off the top of my head, and there are in truth a handful of contenders, but I decided, why wait? Why not try to figure this out now?

Somewhere over the past couple months, we all stopped looking at 2013 statistics and started thinking about 2014 statistics. We don’t have any 2014 statistics, but we do have projected 2014 statistics, so that’s how we’re informing a lot of our thoughts. Right here at FanGraphs, we provide projected batting data, projected pitching data, and projected fielding data. Something I haven’t seen, though, is projected pitch-framing data. So this is a first pass, which I assure you is both quick and lazy. But a start nevertheless.

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Remembering Bill Terry and Elmer Flick

The Hall of Fame has three new members today. On this day in history, two other members of the Hall of Fame passed away, Bill Terry in 1989 and Elmer Flick in 1971. So much has been written in recent days about the best players not in the Hall of Fame and the worst players in the Hall of Fame that it’s worth remembering two men who were neither.

Terry and Flick finished with 56-57 WAR in a little more than a decade of play. Judging by today’s standards, that seemed like fine work, if hardly extraordinary. The writers of their day mostly agreed. They finally allowed Bill Terry to enter the hall in 1954, in his 14th year on the ballot. The Veterans Committee finally decided in 1963 in order to induct Flick, whose last season was 1910, 26 years before the first Hall of Fame class.

Terry and Flick represent a number of things mostly missing from our annual Hall of Fame debate. First, the fact that hope springs eternal: no matter how long a player has waited, the Hall may call. It’s undoubtedly true that recent Veterans Committees have shown very little interest in electing players, unlike Veterans Committees of the past, but trends in Veterans Committees tend to run in cycles.

Second, putting borderline players into the Hall doesn’t harm the Hall. It doesn’t particularly lower standards, it doesn’t poison the well, and it doesn’t hurt anybody either outside or inside.

Anyway, you’ve probably heard of Bill Terry: he’s the last National Leaguer to hit over .400, having done so in 1930, and he’s one of 11 players whose numbers have been retired by the Giants (not including Jackie Robinson). You may not have heard of Flick, who played for the Phillies around the turn of the century, then went to Nap Lajoie’s Cleveland Naps, retiring five years before they changed their name to the “Indians.”*

* Traditionally, the Indians have claimed that they renamed themselves in honor of Louis Sockalexis, an American Indian who played for the team in the late 1890’s. Many others, including Joe Posnanski, have suggested that story is “complete bullcrap,” and that the Indians were merely trying on a name that sounded like that of the 1914 Miracle Braves, who were themselves named after the mascot of New York’s Tammany Hall political machine, which was itself named after a chief named Tamanend.

Terry was a career New York Giant, playing for the team from 1923 to 1936 and managing them from 1932 to 1941. He took over first base from High Pockets Kelly and took over managing from John McGraw, both Hall of Famers. Winning a World Series in 1933 and losing four more in 1923-24 and 1936-37, Terry was part of the last Giants dynasty until Buster Posey joined the team, and both he and Kelly were elected in the rosy afterglow of the memory of the superb Giants teams helmed by McGraw, the Little Napoleon, and by Terry himself. (Kelly was elected by the 1973 Veterans Committee and is assuredly one of the worst players in the Hall of Fame, but I promised I wouldn’t wade into that discussion.)

Flick never played in a World Series, though he played with stars like Big Ed Delahanty and Lajoie. Instead, his career was partly overshadowed by the massive interleague battles that took place between the National League and the just-established American League. As ThisGreatGame.com retells, Connie Mack’s Philadelphia Athletics raided the Phillies by ignoring the reserve clause and signing away Flick and a teammate, just a year after the A’s had signed away Lajoie from the same team.

The Phillies sought relief in the Pennsylvania courts, and the Pennsylvania Supreme Court agreed with them, ordering the players back to the Phillies. So the American League itself intervened, keeping the players in their new league by shifting them to a new team outside the state of Philadelphia Pennsylvania: Cleveland, whose team was formerly called the Bronchos and would become known as the Naps after their new stars.

Despite losing these players, Mack’s 1902 A’s finished first, an achievement none of Flick’s teams ever matched. (Flick only played 11 games for the 1902 A’s.) But due to the all-out war between leagues, there was no official postseason that year. Only in 1903, after “the NL legally cried uncle and sued the AL for peace,” would the first official World Series take place.

Elmer Flick was a speedy outfielder who led his league in triples three times and steals twice. His career was only ten full seasons long. As SABR writes, his last three seasons were plagued by gastrointestinal illness so bad that “he lost weight, his power and speed declined, and the pain was so severe there were times when he thought that he would die.”

But it’s probably better to remember him as something like an early version of Shin-Soo Choo, an all-around outfielder who took walks, had pretty good power, and was a fine baserunner. Or, to quote the beginning of his SABR bio, “as the player who Cleveland would not trade for the young Ty Cobb or as the man who won the American League batting title with the lowest average prior to 1968.”

Terry was equally valuable but in a very different way: less speed, less defense, more batting average, more power. He was a first baseman who had a career batting average of .341 with a lot of doubles and a few more homers. And of course he was a player-manager who won a World Series, which holds weight with voters even though it isn’t reflected in WAR. Flick played before the All-Star Game and MVP, but Terry went to three All-Star games and finished top-three in the MVP three times, and it’s likely that Flick would have done the same.

Terry and Flick were two pretty good players from the first half-century of the modern era. They were great in their time, and though by modern standards they wouldn’t be considered all-time greats, they are well worth remembering. Thankfully, their enshrinement will forever provide a chance to do so.


The Dwindling Chances of Seeing a Triple

The game before us is forever changing, because it has to be. Even when there aren’t abrupt changes in rules or dimensions or make of the baseball, there are changes in strategies and changes in the player pool. Those changes that do take place tend to be subtle, gradual, and we’re all well aware of certain league-wide trends.

We know that strikeouts are higher than they’ve ever been. This past season, the strikeout rate also rose just one-tenth of one percentage point. We know that we’re seeing a little less bunting these days, and we know that offense is down relative to what it was in what many choose to refer to as the Steroid Era. We know that, for whatever reason, there are more hard-throwing pitchers, coming out of seemingly every bullpen and sometimes even starting games. Fewer people might be aware of the trend with triples. And fewer still might be aware of what just happened in 2013.

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Some Final Thoughts on the Hall of Fame Process

Now that we know who is going to be celebrated in upstate New York this summer, the Hall of Fame conversation has now shifted to voting reform. And a lot of people have a lot of thoughts on the matter.

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Philliles New TV Deal May Signal Tempering In Sports TV Market

Comcast will broadcast Philadelphia Phillies games for the next 27 years at a cost exceeding $2.5 billion, according to reports late last week. The Phillies’ prior deal with Comcast SportNet is set to expire after the 2015 season. The new deal will start in 2016 and run for 25 years.

According to reports, Comcast will pay the Phillies $2.5 billion over the course of 25 years for the broadcast rights, plus turn over a percentage of advertising revenue earned during game broadcasts. The Phillies also will receive a 25% equity stake in Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia, Comcast’s regional sports network in the Philadelphia area. The yearly cash payments will start at a figure below $100 million and increase 3% to 4% each year.

The structure of the Phillies’ new deal is most like the one the Los Angeles Angels inked with Fox Sports West before the 2012 season. Under that deal, FSW will pay the Angels in the neighborhood of $3 billion over 20 years for the right to broadcast Angels games. The team also received a 25% equity stake in the regional sports network.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/9/13

11:46
Eno Sarris: I’ll be here at the top of the hour!

12:01
Eno Sarris: lyrics of the day! just barely in time!

And all the laughing boys are bitching
Waiting for photos
Oh the plot is so bewitching.

12:01
Comment From tylersnotes
where is the fangraphs coverage of the craig gentry to oakland trade from last month? some of us have to make decisions in absurdly deep dynasty leagues about whether he is an upgrade over jon jay!

12:02
Eno Sarris: Well, he’ll probably platoon with Coco Crisp, so I feel like his value is just about the same. (Crisp, on the other hand, did you know how bad he’s gotten vs LHP in the last four years?)

12:02
Comment From Guest
Hey Eno…I own Oscar Taveres for a minor league salary, which would be pricey for a potential bench player. What do you project for him in 2014 PA wise?

12:02
Eno Sarris: 150? September-plus? There are two CFs in St. Louis now, and they take their time.

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Little Safety Net For Dodgers At Second Base

Earlier this week, my esteemed colleague Jeff Sullivan took a look at major positional problem areas on contenders, and came up with several potential trouble spots. One of those ended up being second base for the Dodgers, and with good reason — they appear at the bottom of our second base projections, largely because no one has any idea what to make of Alexander Guerrero. As Jeff pointed out, Steamer has him down for only .220/.280/.330 and sees him as basically a replacement-level player, while ZiPS projects him at 2.5 WAR and .259/.324/.386. While Steamer and ZiPS are probably my two favorite projection systems, it’s so difficult to project incoming Cuban players that it’s probably not worth losing a lot of sleep over either line, and because of that questionable data Jeff says that this is a spot that “barely belongs” in his piece. He’s probably right, because we have no idea what Guerrero is going to turn out to be.

But while there’s obvious questions about how reliable the projections might be, the unavoidable truth is this: if Guerrero doesn’t work out or isn’t ready, the Dodgers have almost nowhere else they can turn, and so if this isn’t the worst situation for a contender in the bigs, it’s almost certainly the riskiest. Read the rest of this entry »


Steamer Projects: Baltimore Orioles Prospects

Yesterday, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Orioles or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Houston / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

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Mike Piazza’s Greatness

Mike Piazza didn’t cross the 75% threshold required for election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Still, at 62.2% in his second year on the ballot, he’s probably close enough that his election is eventually assured. And that’s good, because he was the greatest offensive catcher in baseball history.

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Effectively Wild Episode 361: Jay Jaffe on the Top Takeaways from the Hall of Fame Election Season

Ben and Sam talk to Jay Jaffe about the 2014 Hall of Fame voting results, election-season mud-slinging, the 2015 ballot, and more.