Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/9/13

Eno Sarris: I’ll be here at the top of the hour!

Eno Sarris: lyrics of the day! just barely in time!

And all the laughing boys are bitching
Waiting for photos
Oh the plot is so bewitching.

Comment From tylersnotes
where is the fangraphs coverage of the craig gentry to oakland trade from last month? some of us have to make decisions in absurdly deep dynasty leagues about whether he is an upgrade over jon jay!

Eno Sarris: Well, he’ll probably platoon with Coco Crisp, so I feel like his value is just about the same. (Crisp, on the other hand, did you know how bad he’s gotten vs LHP in the last four years?)

Comment From Guest
Hey Eno…I own Oscar Taveres for a minor league salary, which would be pricey for a potential bench player. What do you project for him in 2014 PA wise?

Eno Sarris: 150? September-plus? There are two CFs in St. Louis now, and they take their time.

Comment From mvanger
Do you know if anyone has used k-means clustering to group similar players?

Eno Sarris: I think it might be how we get similarity scores on certain websites, but those scores always seem so terrible. I have a friend who really wants me to get into this….

Comment From Ian
There’s been lots of talk about public ballots. Isn’t part of the point of balloting privacy? We have private elections precisely because publicizing the vote would create pressures and remove the ability to vote one’s conscience.

Eno Sarris: That’s the big argument against. That the voters would get lobbied by players. And since players have so much money these days, a golf trip in November might be very effective and not cost them too much, relatively. And there are a few publications that don’t allow their voters to vote, so keeping it anonymous means that those writers can still vote. I prefer open-ness, because I think it forces the writers to think harder. Also, if votes were open, and we knew a certain writer went to cabo with Mike Piazza right before he penned a ton of pro-Piazza pieces…

Comment From Jake
I always have a thousand questions during the day, then the chat comes, and all I can think of is goldeneye and Mike Trout

Eno Sarris: I rocked at that Bond in college. Grenade launchers in the temple!

Comment From Thomas
Pick 5 keepers from this bunch! Gray, Salazar, Cole, Bogaerts, Donaldson, Dom Brown, Springer, L. Martin, Castellanos

Eno Sarris: Donaldson, Bogaerts. G Cole? G Cole. Gray over Salazar by a nose. Salazar or Brown. Still not sold on Springer because of K%.

Comment From dbet
Do you play in NFBC leagues? I’m thinking about giving it a shot this year

Eno Sarris: I have, finished just out of the money, third or fourth. It’s a high price to pay, I hate not being able to trade, but it’s stiff competition, and the reward is huge.

Comment From Jake
WHY AREN’T THE YANKEES MARINERS ANGELS GIANTS PIRATES INTERESTED IN CAPUANO OH MY GOD

Eno Sarris: Probably because he wants two years.

Eno Sarris: (Even then.)

Comment From Miketron
Hey Eno, I’ve read a few articles recently saying that the top end pitchers should/will be drafted earlier this year. Do you think this will actually happen or will people stick to the old “wait in pitching” strategy?

Eno Sarris: The back end of the first round gets wonky quick. Just did an industry mock and there’s Braun, Jones, Fielder, Hanley at the back end of the first round. I bet Kershaw sneaks ahead of those guys in most drafts. And then at the end of the second, we had Reyes, Choo, Bruce, Freeman… I bet Yu and Lee and Stras sneak ahead of those guys in a lot of drafts. Could be a good idea, too.

Comment From Jake
Could the Yankees get movement on a Franklin for Huff/Phelps/any decent pitching prospect deal? The Mariners’d benefit from some rotation depth

Eno Sarris: Except that the Yankee’s number one need right now is pitching.

Comment From NapolisDeadHips
Eno,

Eno Sarris: NapolisDeadHips,

Comment From Miketron
More HR+SB, Aoki or Adam Eaton?

Eno Sarris: Eaton. Younger, similar power.

Comment From Ceetar
Realized I may have a place that has Bell’s within a 15 minute drive. Don’t be jealous.

Comment From JEB
Chat rooms open! We got song lyrics, we got beer talk, we got Mike Piazza didn’t do steroids talk!

Comment From Meano Eno
ENO! ENO! ENO! ENO!

Eno Sarris: DID YOU KNOW THAT WE DIDN’T DO AN INTERLUDE LAST WEEK

Comment From Meano Eno
I need sandwich inspiration.

Eno Sarris: I usually look at the leftover proteins in my fridge for inspiration. Today it’s tri-tip sous vide or crab cakes.

Comment From Stout
How’d you rank these guys long term: Gioloto, Gray, Salazar, Wacha, Ventura? And would you rank Mikkeller’s Beer Geek over Founder’s Breakfast?

Eno Sarris: I prefer to know a little about their MLB ability, so I’ll go: Wacha, Salazar, Gray (he’s a bit short, his velocity could drop off quickly), Giolito, Ventura. We don’t know if Ventura has a quality second pitch, let alone third. Founders for me!

Comment From Tom
What are your thoughts on Aaron Hicks? Do you think that he will be in center before long this season? Also do you think that he will have a spot in what could be a crowded OF in say the next year or two?

Eno Sarris: Buxton is going to make life hard on Hicks. I think he could be a low-BA valuable piece, though, and I picked him for ROY last year. Whoops. I do think he could have some value this season.

Comment From LarryA
Do coaching changes actually ever lead to major changes in SBs? Im hoping Austin Jackson can get back to 20SBs this year

Eno Sarris: yeah look at Frenchy in KC.

Eno Sarris: I don’t know what the new guy will do, though. The new team does seem faster, and Kinsler wants to steal more, so it’s possible.

Comment From Ted
Agree or disagree – 3rd base is weaker than 2nd base in fantasy?

Eno Sarris: Second base might be deeper. It’s fairly deep. Jurickson Profar was the 12th 2b taken in my draft, Utley 11. Brett Lawrie the 12th 3B. But then there are a few more 2Bs left and 3b gets a bit thinner there.

Comment From dude
Jason Castro’s IFFB% was 1.8 in 2013. I am writing this only to make myself feel better about the long, painful, yet wonderful process of creating player rankings.

Eno Sarris: I like him. Level swing, and then he purposely added a bit of loft and got the power he needed.

Comment From Zack
2014 only: Chase Headley or Pablo Sandoval?

Eno Sarris: For one year? Headley’s not traded yet, so Pablo. I think he’ll do everything he can to be in good shape and stay on the field in his contract year.

Eno Sarris: And yes, I know the contract year thing hasn’t really been proven, but players do get more PA in their contract year, and that’s a problem for Pablo historically.

Comment From Eric
Looking at Howard Bender’s early pitcher ADP reports article yesterday, it seems there are a lot of solid pitchers going after the 10th round. In a H2H league, do you think it’s a viable strategy to go pretty much all offense in rounds 1 – 10, maybe grabbing someone like Sale in round 6 or 7, and then filling out your rotation with a bunch of guys like Cobb, Salazar, Samardzija, Gray, Kluber, etc. at the end?

Eno Sarris: Pretty much what I do every year. One wrinkle I’ve been adding is trying to get two SPs before round ten, to try and buy a lower tier ace and a higher-tier #2, and hopefully get at least one healthy, dominant ace all year long.

Comment From Paulm
yar!

Comment From Zack
Portugal. The Man or Foster, The People?

Comment From Zack
Who should Manchester United target right now in the transfer window?

Eno Sarris: You know, sometimes I don’t understand you people, but I do love you.

Comment From Team Theo
Tanaka time – any chance the Cubs land him? And if so, does shark bait remain, or does his signing mean for sure he is dealt?

Eno Sarris: Sure, actually I do think there’s a chance the Cubs get him. But if they do, they might be closer to contention than they seem. Tanaka/Shark changes the complexion of their staff quickly. Then they could deal a hitting prospect or two for a young, established pitcher.

Comment From B
Hey Eno! I asked you this on Twitter but you didn’t get back to me: I have the opportunity to trade my Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer for Masahiro Tanaka. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.

Eno Sarris: Sorry if I missed it. You know, I love Gray but hate his approach v LHP right now… one thing that matters a bit is where Tanaka ends up in America. In the NL, this trade might be great. In NYA… I dunno, I might ask for another piece back to balance. Gray showed us a lot last year.

Comment From dude
Things you find fun that the girlfriend/wife does not: Taking a closer look at IFFB% for everyone.

Eno Sarris: Don’t I hear about this all the time.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
I would like it if those lyrics were from Rocky Horror Picture Show, so if you could just lie to me and say they are I’d appreciate it.

Eno Sarris: and pull your knees in tight

Comment From MP
What do you see from Dom Brown this year? Last year was a little uneven with the greatest 2 weeks ever.

Eno Sarris: .270+, 25ish (in more PA, so lower power rates), 5+ SBs. Pretty decent.

Comment From Robert
Re-draft league, number 1 pick, who ya got?

Eno Sarris: Trout. Cabrera getting older.

Comment From John H.
Abreu upside?

Eno Sarris: .280/30/100

Comment From FS
A pitcher’s 1st and 2nd half BABIP is different: .260 vs .320 what are the possible reasons? guessing change in fielding unit is one.

Eno Sarris: I’d guess mostly luck.

Comment From Paulm
How far has Verlander fallen in your pre draft rankings?

Eno Sarris: Among pitchers, he’s still top ten for me.

Comment From ozzie
What can line would you project for Matt Davidson, now that he’s moving to the US cellular field?

Eno Sarris: From AZ though. .235/.320/.400 at first, with more upside in the SLG?

Comment From John H.
Moustakas worth keeping over mediocrity like Chris Carter, Markakis, Swisher in a dynasty league? I’m still praying he breaks out and isn’t a bust

Eno Sarris: Nervous about his swing plane (way too many FB), and platoon splits (Valencia in town now). Swisher is the win-now keep, and I actually think Carter is the upside keep.

Comment From NapolisDeadHips
In a ten team, deep keeper league, Donaldson isn’t being kept, I think I could get him in the cheap. I’d have to boot someone to the curb though. My current keepers are: Crush, HanRam, Hosmer, Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Jason Heyward, Xander Bogaerts, Oscar Taveras, Jose Fernandez and Danny Strikeout. 2,000 innings min. roto league with an auction draft for the final 20 roster spots. I think Donaldson is worthy of a keeper slot. Thoughts?

Eno Sarris: I’d like Donaldson over one of your outfielders, yes. I believe in him to .280+ 25ish again.

Comment From John H.
Minor hit his upside or does he have more room to grow?

Eno Sarris: I don’t think there’s a ton more left. And he probably starts losing velocity soon.

Comment From Jake
Do you trust Lance Berkman’s 2014 Steamer Projection? In 470 PA, .359 OBP, .422 SLG, 115 wRC+. Berkman put up 90 wRC+ in 294 2013 PA. If he does come back for 2014, would he make a decent DH? Still carries a ~.04 wOBA split.

Eno Sarris: Still mad at him for last year and my LABR team, so no. I think his health makes him retire.

Comment From bob
I look forward to when the Hall of Fame creates a new committee to vote in all the alleged steroid users that were kept out. This will happen in 2045 when baseball has to deal with the whole “is being a cyborg cheating” issue? The rational will be, “well, at least they were humans.”

Comment From Meano Eno
THROWING KNIVES ONLY

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
I just got a N64 for Christmas, first thing I did was play GoldenEye 🙂

Eno Sarris: yessssss lude

Comment From John H.
Kohl Stewart or Clint Fraser in a dynasty?

Eno Sarris: I’ll take the OF even with his bad K%

Comment From tylersnotes
you’ve been in the bbwaa a year now, no? what are the biggest things you’ve learned about the organization that you didn’t know or understand before?

Eno Sarris: There’s a lot of value to the writer in joining. My chapter head, Susan Slusser, has been invaluable to me in terms of learning the ropes. They advocate for their members.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
can we have an eno/szymborski goldeneye playoff, live streaming, loser has to root for the marlins next year?

Eno Sarris: oooh not bad. STRAFE

Comment From dude
Twitter treated the Jack Morris vote like the presidential election. Tore him to pieces. Twitter is also going on about some fat guy from NJ for too long over something not as important that I imagine Twitter has missed out on in the past.

Comment From Sadwick
They banned grenade launchers from use when I was playing Goldeneye. It’s not my fault the game is split screen so I know where you are, and if I’m good at banking grenades you should get better at dodging damnit.

Comment From David
What’s your favorite league format to play?

Eno Sarris: You know what. I’m weird. Roto 5×5.

Comment From J
Oh man, too much time off from fantasy baseball makes it hard to get back in the swing of things. Any recommendations on when/where to start?

Eno Sarris: Depth charts is the easiest way. Just looking at our depth charts http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14 and identifying players that are taking over roles, or could take over roles, that’s the easiest way to find your own sleepers.

Comment From Tony
I had Nate Jones at the end of the season in a holds keeper league and can keep him for very, very cheap. Think he’s got a good chance to take and keep the Sox closer job?

Eno Sarris: yes!

Comment From Zack
What’re the odds that Rickie Weeks keeps his starting 2B job all year? 30 percent?

Eno Sarris: Oh man, they’re talking like he already lost it.

Comment From The Greatness of Lucas Duda
Is there any solid research on the honeymoon period after Tommy John surgery? How long does it last? 5 years? 600 innings? Other?

Eno Sarris: yes, Zimmerman did it. 400 innings. IF you’re going to have a second TJ, it might come around 400-500 IP after first.

Comment From I own Singleton
Any chance the ‘Stros start the season w/ a prospect on the MLB squad?

Eno Sarris: They are too far from contention to start Singleton or Springer’s clocks right now. Bet they try Japhet Amadour (not really a prospect but HUUUUUGE) and Brett Wallace for ~200 PA before moving on.

Comment From Jake
Projections put Renoylds+Capuano+Tanaka at ~6 WAR. If the Yankees get that on the roster, they’d be in the top 5 in team WAR, and spare the 2nd round pick. Whatcha think, good moves for New York?

Eno Sarris: Sure.

Comment From CarlC
Why in most roto leagues are there way more total runs than RBIs?

Eno Sarris: The better players play closer to the top of the lineup?

Comment From Sadwick
John Schuerholz was quoted saying Frank Wren wasn’t done this offseason. The only thing that comes to mind for me is the inevitable Uggla dump, maybe a trade for Nick Franklin, but Seattle seems to want an outfielder. What are the odds the Braves stand pat at second?

Eno Sarris: I think they like LaStella as an Uggla backup plan. For a long time, I thought Samardzija was the plan… dunno though. Could be pitching-related though.

Comment From LarryA
Whats your realistic range for Cespedes batting average

Eno Sarris: .240-.270

Comment From LarryA
Ever have any Jack Abbys? They make some incredible hoppy lagers

Eno Sarris: We just released a new version of wOBAR on BeerGraphs called Style+. it’s like wRC+, where it’s just a beer compared to its style average * 100. Jack’s Abby’s hoppy lager is 30% better than league average.

Comment From LarryA
Did you have any Chick-fil-A in Orlando?

Eno Sarris: NO AND NO CIGAR CITY HARUMPH

Eno Sarris: I’m yelling a lot today

Comment From Mike Rizzo
Robbie Ray stinks. How the heck did I get Doug Fister for him?

Eno Sarris: not everyone agrees he stinks, I guess.

Comment From bob
Hopslam is set to be released soon (or may already be out there).

Eno Sarris: out here in California? No. I don’t think so.

Eno Sarris: But if anyone wants to send me some…. my co-founder at BG tried to send it to me three times, never made it.

Comment From PaulM
Will Venable? You decide the question.

Eno Sarris: Under-rated extra outfielder in daily transaction leagues?

Comment From Jimmy
I sold my soul & dealt Trout last year during stretch run, but it was well worth it for the fantasy title – agreed? I had a Harper/Trout combo, but now only Harper remains. What do project for Harper in 2014?

Eno Sarris: flags fly forever! I think Harper could have a really nice year. 28/12 with a decent batting average.

Comment From Alan ADale
BABY’S ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Eno Sarris: BETTER PUT HER IN THE WATER

Comment From Vic
Of the following 5 players, who do you think will have the most value from 2014-2018 in a wicked deep 5 x 5? Billy Butler? Kris Bryant? Jorge Soler? Bret Lawrie? Brian Buxton? Thanks

Eno Sarris: Lawrie’s young and has a track record… Buxton… Bryant/Lawrie (I think Bryant ends up in OF)…… Soler, Butler.

Comment From Nick
Pick one to keep: Desmond, Segura, Profar. I am deathly afraid to not keep Segura especially with his potential power stemming from average fly ball from last year, return of braun so more run scoring opportunities, etc. But Desmond is solid, right?

Eno Sarris: Actually I think I might keep Segura… Both not necessarily batting average useful, but Segura a smidge better there. Segura way more speed. So you’re comparing Desmond’s 15ish HR to Segura’s 7-12….

Comment From juan pierres mustache
don’t start any fights eno http://www.styleplusband.com/

Eno Sarris: WE USED THE SYMBOL

Comment From Willis
Will/Should Junior Lake get 250 PAs this season?

Eno Sarris: I think he’ll get 500! They’ll keep running him out there until he proves he’s no good.

Comment From Fantasy Strategy
Hi Eno. Strategy question…I’m in a 5×5, roto league and never draft pitchers in the 1st 3 rounds however I would really like to have Kershaw on my team. Do I put myself at a significant disadvantage by taking him in the 2nd round? Thanks!

Eno Sarris: If you get him in the second, giddyap. The second is not as sexy as it has been in the past.

Comment From Dino
Do you see Jim Thome making a return to the diamond this season? (He said he’d still like to play if the opportunity presents.)

Eno Sarris: Nah. Do love him tho.

Comment From Miketron
When/if you get a HOF ballot will you publicize your picks?

Eno Sarris: Of course.

Comment From Gareth
Jeff Francoeur is bad, but as a RH 4th OF bench bat to compliment the 3 Lefties (Bourn, Brantely, Murphy) He shouldn’t hurt the Indians too much, right? Right?

Eno Sarris: Only against lefties he’s not as terrible as he is over all.

Comment From Gareth
As a back end starter who is still left in Free Ageny, who is a better option in terms of value / production: Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm or Chris Capuano?

Eno Sarris: I’d take Capuano. Well, assuming he’s cheaper than Maholm. Also, Maholm being hurt last year is not a good sign. Wrote about 2000 words about Arroyo.

Comment From Meano Eno
do spring training invites mean anything for prospects?

Eno Sarris: Yes! I do think so. From listening to GMs talk, they only bring them in if they are really taking a look at them against big league competition. Means they’re probably less than a year away from debut.

Comment From Scuba Steve
Mike Minor or Julio Teheran in a keeper league?

Eno Sarris: If only Teheran threw that changeup more… I’ll take JT because he has a little more velocity.

Comment From Gareth
Starlin Castro – Rebound or was he just a tease and he’s really not that good?

Eno Sarris: He was very consistent at .280+/10/15. I’d call that his baseline.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Chances the Mets do one of the following: 1) sign Drew to a 1 yr deal; 2) sign Drew to a 2 yr deal; 3) sign Drew to a 3 yr deal; 4) trade for a young SS; 5) do neither and go with some combo platter of Tejada and Cesar Isturis ?

Eno Sarris: 5) is number one. either or 2) or 3) is next because 2015 more important than 2014.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
did you know that wal-mart and coca-cola collaborated on a movie that was released in theaters? it was so poorly received that it averaged a gross of $128 per theater, the lowest in movie history. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_American

Comment From dude
Let’s talk about baseball guys/let’s talk about K’s all night/let’s talk about all the sleepers and the busts that may be

Comment From juan pierres mustache
i actually can’t do the time warp because i have bad knees. if i actually bent my knees that way and tried to do pelvic thrusts i would fall over and/or scream in pain

Comment From Ceetar
Which is greater in 2014, Bartolo Colon wins, or hilarious gifs of Bartolo Colon?

Eno Sarris: hey now, you think we can manage twelve hilarious GIFs wait of course we can

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Regarding the Dodgers need for a safety net at 2B (according to Mike Petrillo), do you think that Daniel Murphy is a possible match there?

Eno Sarris: I’m down on Guerrero, but he should have pull power and maybe only need an Ellis type. And the Dodgers used to have like ten Ellis types. So strange.

Comment From Franklin
D.Dahl – I’ve seen him fall out of top 50 prospects on some early fantasy mags, is he worth hanging on to in dynasty leagues?

Eno Sarris: I dunno man, any Rockies prospect that might hit Colorado Springs this year is worth holding on to if only for trade value based on numbers.

Comment From Jake@Baseballprof
Good morning Eno. Do you believe that Farquhar will maintain his closers job in Seattle or are they shopping closers hard?

Eno Sarris: They seem to be shopping closers pretty hard. Might pick up a K-Rod type, or even Balfour, if they don’t get Tanaka. If they do… even then, I bet they supplement the bullpen.

Comment From Brad
Do you think Anibal Sanchez can replicate last season’s success? Is he an injury risk?

Eno Sarris: Yes I believe he’s an injury risk. He was injured last year, and that’s the number one determinant of future injury. Plus, it was the shoulder, and he had labrum surgery before. I’m nervous about him.

Comment From Arlo
Kolten Wong upside? % chance he gets near those numbers?

Eno Sarris: like peak upside? Maybe .290/15/30. This year, more like .270/8/20, especially since he’s got Ellis in town to possibly platoon with.

Comment From Jim
What can we expect from J.Upton this year?

Eno Sarris: I actually think he’ll cut the Ks a bit and have a decent BA with 28 HR type power and a few sBs.

Comment From Marty
Happy New Year! All else equal, how many points of average are worth giving up for one additional HR?

Eno Sarris: to you too! Zimmerman is working on this, and he just chatted me the answer: 1 HR = .00327 in average, so about 10 points in average = 3 home runs

Comment From CarlC
When you tweet 7 high ABV beers in a 2 hour span, is that all you, or do you do a lot of sharing?

Eno Sarris: Often I’m at a party and I’m the beer curator, bringing beers to everyone and sharing. Even when I’m home, I have my wife and my bro-in-law here. So I’m almost never having a full bomber of the stuff I check in to lol.

Comment From FS
even if that happens, 3 years in a row.

Eno Sarris: If you’re talking about the BABIP thing, I’d look into weather effects and velocity. Perhaps his velocity tails off more/faster and, maybe combined with a park that warms up considerably, the hits are flying further. But first half / second half splits are not very predictive, and then you’re talking BABIP on top of that.

Comment From Gareth
Who deserves more scorn – the guy who gave his HOF vote to deadspin or the guy who ONLY voted for jack morris?

Eno Sarris: You know what, this might be weird, I don’t have a ton of scorn for either. Ken Gurnick looked at the steroid era, threw up his hands and said no, I can’t decide who did it, so nobody gets in. I am doing the same thing, just deciding the opposite: everybody with the right numbers gets in. As for LeBatard, he crowdsourced his vote. Y’all would love me if I did that.

Comment From Guest
assume Xander gets a full season of PA — what is your expected slash line? would you choose to keep him in a keep-for-life league for an 8th-round pick over matt carpenter. OBP league with Ks as a stat so Carpenter plays up.

Eno Sarris: Oh damn, with Ks by batter, too? Because my only worry for Xander is that he strikes out 20-24% of the time and has a meh batting average. OBP should be fine, but will it be Carpenterian? The chance that he ends up at short means I wait as long as I can (Drew signing) and if they don’t sign Drew, I keep Bogaerts.

Comment From Larry
Why might Mike Minor lose velocity anytime soon? He just turned 26.

Eno Sarris: Because pitchers start losing velocity from the minute they enter the league. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/

Comment From here goes nothing
are you at all partial to milk stouts? the duck rabbit milk stout reigns supreme but i wonder if it’s a wladimir balentien kind of supreme, where they’ve cornered a niche without as stiff of competition.

Eno Sarris: Yeah I love them. Left Hand is the Bonds of the group. Just had Sam Smith Chocolate Stout and maybe they went too far. Tastes like chocolate milk with only a hint o hops and alcohol. Moo-Hoo from Terrapin was okay.

Comment From Andy5
Is Allen Craig’s power gone for good or is there a little bounce-back potential? The rest of the profile is pretty good.

Eno Sarris: Was never that good. 20+, sure. 30ish? No. He’s older than you think!

Comment From Los
How good are you at fantasy? What odds would you lay that you could finish in the top 2 of a random yahoo fantasy league?

Eno Sarris: It’s been a lot harder since I’ve been in industry leagues. A random Yahoo league, haven’t done that in a while, but I’d give myself 75/25 of finishing top 3. I was about 50/50 last year in top 3 finishes for all 14 of my leagues last year, and those were industry for the most part.

Comment From Brent
Do you really think Mike Minor has hit his upside at 26? Don’t forget, the Marlins are in his division!

Eno Sarris: 3.21/1.09 with 8 k/9 and 2 BB/9? Yes, I don’t think he’ll get better than that. there’s no reason I can put my finger on to believe that. His swinging strike rates were okay, not great, his velocity already going down.

Comment From here goes nothing
plans to draft braun this year?

Eno Sarris: In the early second round, I’m a yes.

Comment From Gareth
Why no love for mike piazza in the balloting?

Eno Sarris: Judging from my convo with Brian Kenney on his radio show today, steroid suspicion.

Comment From dude
I’m liking what I’m seeing in Brandon Belt, will the Dbacks leave him alone? I think 280-25 is realistic.

Eno Sarris: I think the SF beat writers agree with you. Maybe. the change in grips was a big deal, he was much better after, and it showed a willingness to adjust.

Comment From Dylan
Your favorite late-round 2014 flier (batter)?

Eno Sarris: Here are some guys I liked in the 18th+ in our 14-team 25-round industry mock: Marcell Ozuna (I took him), Brian Dozier (even without ironing out the IFFB), Adam Lind, Devin Mesoraco (maybe deeper or two-catcher, but if you picked a bad first catcher…), Miguel Montero, Cody Asche, Alcides Escobar, Corey Hart.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Any thoughts on the HOF vote and especially the deadspin/lebatard ballot (which ended up rock solid)?

Eno Sarris: If they’d used the 75% threshold on their own readers, they would only have voted in Piazza and Biggio over the BBWAA vote!

Comment From monty bayes
How much would you pay in an auction for Billy Hamilton? In H2H his upside is to all but guarantee a win in one category every week, without hurting the odds of winning BA and other cats too much.

Eno Sarris: We haven’t run the auction values yet, but ZiPs had him for like .260 BA and 68 SBs… he went in sixth round (76th) in draft. That’s at least double-digits, but it’s a bit risky.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Jack’s Abby! Smoke & Dagger was great on cask, and Hoponius Union is phenomenal

Comment From GSon
Cigar City to rest your ash…

Comment From PaulM
Hopslam is in Arizona, what the hell? Why no Cali?

Comment From GSon
Would you ring-a-ling my ding-a-ling with a Yuengling?

Eno Sarris: What a beery lude.

Comment From Sentimental Sally
Remember Strasburg’s debut? He struck out 14 in 7 innings. That was fun.

Eno Sarris: I was running my first meetup ever — in NYC — for Stras debut and Stanton debut, same day, right? That was so much fun.

Comment From My Name
Can bring Trumbo back for $4 in a $260 cap weekly OBP league. ZIPs basically is awarding him the MVP trophy. Worth the OBP drain to get the 30+ HR?

Eno Sarris: I really want to see how he does going from Anaheim to Arizona. I’d pay $4 for that a million times over.

Comment From Eastern NC
I’m torn. I love watching Manny Machado, so I want to keep him. But, I love winning too. Worth Machado over both tulo and Stras?

Eno Sarris: No. no. No!

Comment From Eastern NC
Of the following prospects, who should I try to trade for an established pitcher: Baez, Soler, Almora, Addison Russell?

Eno Sarris: Almora’s plate discipline actually isn’t any better than Soler and Baez, even if he makes more contact. I know Russell would get you the most, but he’s the guy I love most. Don’t trade him, I’d say. Almora gets you the least, so I split the middle and trade Soler.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
I can probably get some Hopslam (and nugget nectar, and the new Victory DIPA) out to you at some point (might just send one box for you and Blake to save some time). Just gotta make sure I can acquire enough Hopslam to share.

Eno Sarris: YESSSSSSS

Eno Sarris: having some issues here with the window. relaunching!

Comment From dude
You are getting a lot of questions today asking you to look 5 years into the future…tough crowd.

Comment From dbet
When you’re studying baseball, do you have to check assumptions like you would while researching other statistical findings? Or can we skip most of that because we have the entire population?

Comment From Ringtone Composer
My wife gets all hot and bothered when I read her the IFFB tables. Guess I’m just lucky…

Eno Sarris: keeper

Eno Sarris: dbet: I try to check all of my assumptions yes. The commenters help me figure out which ones I missed, no snark.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Any news on Sano’s elbow? Will he avoid the knife? In addition to wanting to see prodigious homerun power, I am trying to decide if I should hold on to him as my 16th keeper in a *keep forever* dynasty league?

Eno Sarris: Looks like news coming on this very shortly. Wait as long as you can.

Comment From Dipdawhip
Chances that Brandon Morrow puts up a CY (~5-6 WAR) season? Johan Santana vs Roy Halladay?

Eno Sarris: Questions from two years ago?

Comment From STiVo
Brett Lawrie was the 12th 3B taken? That seems crazy, right?

Eno Sarris: I took him, so I like him a bit better than that.

Comment From El Rey
Maikel Franco vs. Brett Lawrie

Eno Sarris: Lawrie.

Eno Sarris: Good thing I am Enosferatu.

Comment From Gareth
Arenado a good sleeeper this year for fantasy, or is he just a good player mainly due to his defence?

Eno Sarris: No I think he could .280+, 20+ this year.

Eno Sarris: Dammit coveritlive.

Comment From Dipdawhip
Does Bautista ever control his infield fly problem?

Eno Sarris: I think it comes from hitting 50% fly balls, which gives him his power, so no!

Comment From The other Kyle
Thoughts on Khris Davis? CBS released its 2014 projections (not that I, or anyone, cares what CBS thinks), and they’re projecting something like 28 HRs with a full-time role. I have high hopes for Davis, but that seems a bit excessive, no?

Eno Sarris: The problem is that he’s got more power against lefties than righties. It was so extreme people thought he couldn’t make it as regular. I like him, but I’d rather project him for 24 or so, and be happy with more.

Comment From George
What would you say is Dexter Fowler’s upside for 2014?

Eno Sarris: .265/15/20

Comment From Guest
If you had to pick one change to the voting process, what would it be? [increase limits on selections, ballots public, define morality, get better base of voters, etc]

Eno Sarris: No limit to number of players on ballot. Second place is all votes public. Third place is some sort of comment on steroids, which is never coming.

Comment From RotoLando
When you get an absurd trade offer do you politely decline, decline, decline then angrily respond, or toally ignore it and let it expire?

Eno Sarris: Often I let it simmer because it handcuffs them a bit, and it also lets me know what they are interested in.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
wow, you really don’t think the Mets are contemplating a deal for a SS? No way the DBacks enter the season with all 3 SSs. There is a deal there to make.

Eno Sarris: If they can get the loser for low prices, yes, then maybe. But if Didi loses out, will Towers trade him for cheap after he paid top shelf prices for him?

Comment From CarlC
If Everyone says that the HOF will take Ichiros time in Japan into consideration, than shouldnt they take Andruw Jones time in Japan into consideration too?

Eno Sarris: I don’t think they will take his time in Japan into consideration, but this was funny.

Comment From Miketron
Will you read Larry Schechter’s new book on fantasy?

Eno Sarris: I have! we’ll have him on the podcast soon.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
If you are in a dynasty league and have won fairly easily 2 years straight do you make some “just because” trades to change up the roster and hopefully help maintain continued interest in the league?

Eno Sarris: No, but it might be fun to get younger so you can keep doing it.

Comment From Andy5
Hey, I’d be thrilled w/ 20+ HRs out of Craig. He didn’t even sniff that total last year.

Eno Sarris: All about expectations.

Comment From DB
And which particular site best to use for a league? [besides ottoneu]

Eno Sarris: Kinda like Yahoo best still. CBS is turrible. ESPN pretty good.

Comment From Lenard
Mike Minor or Alex Cobb for next year?

Eno Sarris: Okay I’ll still take Minor here. He’s in the NL and has more track record. But it’s very very close.

Comment From RotoLando
Oswaldo Arcia and Marcell Ozuna: big power in big parks. Are they neutered for fantasy purposes?

Eno Sarris: Ozuna still has some speed to offer.

Comment From jj
was that Abreu question maybe about Bobby? I hope he make the indians…

Eno Sarris: Oh, Bobby Abreu upside? platoon play, .270 with good OBP, 10-15 steals.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Travis D’Arnaud relevant in a 16 team start 1 catcher league?

Eno Sarris: right in the middle of that ten-catcher scrum of .250-.260/15+ homers.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Is profar a fantasy starting quality MI in 2014?

Eno Sarris: in most leagues, yes, even with the question mark about his SBs.

Comment From The other Kyle
Line for Rendon in 2014?

Eno Sarris: .280/20

Comment From JT
Where do you think Abreu and the 2B get drafted this year? Yeah, as I get older, this (“Abreu and the other guy”) passes for keeping up on the new Cuban imports.

Eno Sarris: 10th/130 for Abreu, 15th/210 for Guerrero. Have a feeling Abreu will go a little ahead of that in a lot of drafts. Down on Guerrero.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
chances Billy Burns comes up in 2014 and swipes approximately infinite bases? the A’s didn’t trade for him for no reason is my thinking….

Eno Sarris: nah, he’s the 2015 plan.

Comment From Timmay
Do you like Gyorko to beat his zips slash line of .254/.308/.423? 20 HRs?

Eno Sarris: Yeah I think he could cut some Ks and up the BA.

Comment From Steve
What are your thoughts on Drew Smyly next year? Potential top 30 pitcher?

Eno Sarris: I like him but might walk that back a bit. He didn’t use the changeup much last year, will need it v RHB.

Comment From Dont Be a Jurick, Son
Hey Eno, love your work. There seems to be a belief we are not currently capturing all the value for catchers. When you are interviewing pitchers, do they ever mention all the ways their catcher brings them value or the ways the catcher hurts their performance? I recall Wacha giving a lot of praise to Yadi upon receiving the NLCS MVP award, but I’d love to hear about the specifics of his perceived value from the pitchers.

Eno Sarris: Actually a few of them I asked about this and they seemed to want to give them credit but not too much because hell they pitched the ball.

Comment From dude
Just because a guy goes 12th, doesn’t mean he’s ranked 12th…if that makes sense.

Eno Sarris: Just reporting what happened in one mock, yes.

Comment From Ian
I believe the most important thing in a first round pick is actually getting production – not having catastrophic issues. With that in mind, given the issues with the back of the first round and that I don’t want a pitcher that early, is it crazy to take Encarnacion at the turn?

Comment From dude
Are you worried about E-5’s wrist?

Eno Sarris: There is some risk here, as you can see. I think he’ll be fine, but if you’re asking if I’d take him higher than 15th… probably not. At 13, you probably have chance to take Ellsbury, Fielder, Braun, Kipnis, Wright…. Beltre…

Comment From James
Brett Lawrie’s upside?

Eno Sarris: I’ll call his base about .275/15/15 and upside .280/25/20.

Comment From Guest
Is Cano still a top 3 2nd baseman?

Eno Sarris: yes.

Comment From Guest
What do you expect from Crush Davus?

Eno Sarris: .270 batting average, lots of homers, probably fewer than last year.

Comment From Ian
My open vote is for more interludes.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
i like to respond to absurd trade offers with the scared red panda gif

Comment From Scott
Proximity mines ftw!

Comment From Guest
Interested in your thoughts on Bucholz and Liriano for next year.

Eno Sarris: I only want either for my SP4 or so. Buchholz has production AND health issues, and Liriano just has big red honking red flags for health.

Comment From The other Kyle
Follow-up re: Khris Davis: Would you keep him at $1 ($26 cap, NL-only league)?

Eno Sarris: Yes.

Comment From Ian
Is Cole an ace in a mixed league this year? Best starter on the staff type?

Eno Sarris: Not yet, or don’t pick him as such. He’ll be a popular target as a #2 though. I paired him with Verlander in a mock recently.

Comment From Guest
Do you see Seager having a breakout seas?

Eno Sarris: He had it.

Comment From Steve
Can you rank for 2014? Wheeler, Smyly, Tehran

Eno Sarris: Teheran Smyly Wheeler. Wheeler still has to show me better command.

Comment From LarryA
With the changes to Yahoo boxscores, are there any sites out there still offerering clean live boxes?

Eno Sarris: will see if I can do something about this. It’s terrible what they did.

Comment From DB
Many of us likely know your present work and recent past work at other sites. Where do you see your baseball writing career in 5 years? 10 years? and what is your goal or ‘dream job’?

Eno Sarris: Man I got no idea. You might notice I’m not easily summed up, so I don’t have a ‘niche.’ Could go all fantasy, all Q&A, all analysis. For now, I’ll try to get better at all three and see where I end up.

Comment From JT
What shoes do you wear for hoops?

Eno Sarris: The new shelltoe Addidas low-cut basketball shoes, black.

Comment From David
Do you know of any fantasy sites that let you set up custom categories, other than CBS? I agree that their interface could … use some work. But it’s the only one I’ve found that will let you invent your own scoring categories.

Eno Sarris: Yeah that’s why I end up (begrudgingly) on their site all the time.

Comment From Jake@Baseballprof
Just realized there are a million Ramos’. Thoughts on Wilson Ramos as a top 10 catcher option?

Eno Sarris: yes. I like him. It’s nice to know that he’ll probably hit .270+, and then if the power growth is real, .280/20 is a definite possibility.

Comment From Ben
What do you portend for Porcello in 2014?

Eno Sarris: His age, new curveball, and infield defense make for a career year, and he’s still just a #2 or so for fantasy. 3.75/1.25/7k9

Comment From Marty
I think we need a Mario Kart shout out.

Eno Sarris: Oh man I killed at that too. These are the last remnants of my gaming days. The power slide!

Comment From JT
Just to be clear: Dan LeBatard wasn’t the guy who’d sold his vote, right? He just crowdsourced using the Deadspin vote, right?

Eno Sarris: yeah they had a deal in place to buy one, it fell through, so they just crowdsourced LeB’s vote for free.

Eno Sarris: yeah they had a deal in place to buy one, it fell through, so they just crowdsourced LeB’s vote for free.

Comment From Dave
Does fangraphs+ have a custom dollar calculator? Last Player Picked seems to be no more.

Eno Sarris: Wait for news.

Comment From Rayn
worth more in trade….archie bradley or Oscar Taveras. me and buddy have fantasy debate one which would be better to own long term. I’d actually take oscar over any minor league pitcher…is there any pitcher you take over him?

Eno Sarris: No. Taveras has power and a low K%, which is just awesome put together.

Comment From Rod Beer
2 things 1) Psyched that my local bar in upstate NY just tapped a Wookey Jack!!! and 2) I just traded $0 Matt Adams for $0 Archie Bradley in a roto keeper.. I should be psyched about both of these? or at least I have Wookey Jack on tap?

Eno Sarris: For sure on 1). 2)… Matt Adams won’t hit for a great batting average (he pulls too much and they started shifting him and his BAbIP tanked), so you probably sold well, even if I usually like hitters over pitchers.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
Re: Didi trade… do the Mets *have* to get him for nothing? Look, the issue is the tradeoff between getting say Didi’s cheap age 24 – 28 yo seasons at the cost of a good pitching prospect (say Fulmer or Matz for argument’s sake) vs. Drew’s age 31-33 seasons at 10M per and loss or 3rd rd pick and slot money. Go for the younger and cheaper guy! Oliver 5 yr projection has Didi over Drew almost 2 to 1.

Eno Sarris: No, not for nothing. But do they have a spare Bauer (not now Bauer, then Bauer) sitting around?

Comment From Owen
Open letter to the Hall of Fame: bleeerg, bonk bonk bonk, snippy, glarrrrrr.

Comment From Guest
Zips has Sano projected for 556 PA in 2014. That’d mean they’d start his clock before the Super Two deadline right? He has half a season at AA. Do you think the Twins really start his clock next year?

Eno Sarris: I think if his elbow is fine he’ll play, but not that much.

Comment From GK
Iwakuma regresses some next year, but how much? His projections are all over the place…

Eno Sarris: I’m actually not that worried about regression, more about injury, so IP. He was hurt a lot in Japan and he’s old.

Comment From scatterbrian
Did you ever figure out what is up with Huston Street’s LOB%?

Eno Sarris: It was real! He didn’t let anyone score for like 3/4 of the year!

Comment From Marty
Is there a resource that sorts by days on the DL last year?

Eno Sarris: There’s downloadable DL info at Baseballheatmaps.com.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
ESPN has fairly clean live boxes

Eno Sarris: But still a bunch of java that slows stuff down.

Comment From Gareth
breaking news! the nats to sign 40 year old jamey carroll. that should take them over the top.

Eno Sarris: Hey I thought they needed depth, so that’s fine!

Comment From James
While the Jays haven’t made any major moves this offseason (thank god JP Arencibia is gone) do you put any stock into their “change in mentality?” IE: new hitting coach (use the middle of the diamond), underdogs coming off terrible season, though still talented (Red Sox) and a more intense plan for Spring Training (No WBC)?

Eno Sarris: I think they need pitching and Tanaka is killing the pitching market.

Comment From Matt
When you said ‘Enosferatu’… did you mean to say ‘Enostradamus’? One tells the future, the other is a scary looking vampire…

Eno Sarris: sure, but if I was the vampire I could just bite anyone that complained about my picks.

Comment From Guest
Over the last 6 months the USD has lost considerable ground to the GBP. Given the macro-economic conditions mainly characterized by the gradual tapering of the FED stimulus package now at $75bn monthly, what impact do you see on overseas trade with particular focus on the growing tech sector with its complex IP laws.

Comment From Craig Grebeck
Carmen Electra: GO!

Eno Sarris: Dennis Rodman: GO!

Comment From Guest
Will there ever be another Bo Jackson type of multi pro sport athlete?

Eno Sarris: Can’t believe it’ll happen. Too much pressure from the leagues to choose.

Comment From Justin
Favorite under the radar, low level prospect?

Eno Sarris: does Mookie Betts count?

Comment From Justin
Can you make a case for Bernie Williams to be in or out of the HOF? … Does he belong in the “Hall of Very good?”

Eno Sarris: out for me.

Eno Sarris: without taking a real long look at him.

Comment From Frank
Do you have a preference between Arenado at $4 or Jhonny Peralta at $4?

Eno Sarris: Arenado big time.

Comment From ithrowplastic
Regression from Goldschmidt this yr?

Eno Sarris: Maybe a bit in BA and SB.

Comment From Guest
Which Angel is more likely to have a bounce-back year: Pujols or Hamilton?

Eno Sarris: Pujols. Becauase of his discipline.

Comment From Guest
Are you gonna put your boy into baseball?

Eno Sarris: I’ll let him do what he wants. But he likes throwing the baseball!

Comment From Jake
TROUT

Comment From Owen
All Mookies count

Comment From Ian
I think you type faster than I read.

Eno Sarris: Ooh lets end on a lude. thanks guys!