Ben and Sam introduce a new sponsor, then preview the White Sox’ season with Ken Funck, and Nick talks to CSNChicago.com White Sox insider Dan Hayes (at 27:44).
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Matt Harvey will be as confident as ever when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Not only does he expect to be fully healthy, he’ll be back to where he feels most comfortable. The young New York Mets ace said as much when I spoke to him in January.
The first time I talked to Harvey, he wasn’t yet in his comfort zone. It was April 2012 and he was pitching for Triple-A Buffalo. His big-league debut was still three months away.
At the time, Harvey was chomping at the bit. Questions remained about his readiness, but they weren’t being raised by the right-hander. Harvey told me, “I’d like to think I’m right there. It’s never my decision, but I’m always going to be ready, both mentally and physically.” He went on to say he wouldn’t be intimidated.
Episode 424
Grant Brisbee is the talented editor of SB Nation’s San Francisco Giants blog McCovey Chronicles and a contributor to SBN’s main baseball page.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
According to legend, Vladimir Guerrero once hit a home run off a pitch that bounced off the ground. According to similar legends, he hit more than one such home run. I haven’t actually been able to find any confirmation, myself, but I’ve been in possession of this alleged memory for years, and Guerrero was the kind of hitter who at least made you believe he was capable of such an extraordinary feat. I’m disinclined to doubt any story about Vladimir Guerrero, and we do, if nothing else, have video evidence of this, a single he hit off the ground against the Orioles in 2009. Guerrero was a free swinger, and a contact swinger, and when you put those two qualities together, you can see some incredible things.
Now, Guerrero last played in the majors in 2011. There’s certainly no one quite like him, and Pablo Sandoval might be the current game’s closest approximation. No one in baseball is capable of doing all the same things Guerrero did, but that doesn’t mean Guerrero’s departure marked the end of hits against pitches that bounce. From time to time, you still see a hitter get lucky after he’s chosen to be overaggressive, and below, let’s walk through all the hits from the 2013 season against pitches that first found the dirt.
Play the player-profile game every day this week at 1:00pm ET. We’re giving away a free annual subscription to FanGraphs+ to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).
As the absurdly coiffed Eno Sarris announced on Monday, the newest iteration of FanGraphs+ is now available in exchange for your hard-earned money — and any other kind of money, too.
As in recent years, we’re celebrating this important Moment in History by way of the player-profile game.
Said game is easy: the author offers the text of an actual player profile from the newest iteration of FG+, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The reader, in turn, attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.
First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free annual subscription to FanGraphs+, worth roughly the equivalent of Alec Baldwin’s watch in Glengarry Glen Ross.
Today’s entry comes to us by way of the classy, invincible author himself. (Note: a clue will be provided, if necessary, after 50 wrong responses.)
Today, Julio Teheran joined the ever growing ranks of young players to sign long term deals early in their careers, agreeing to a six year contract with the Braves that guarantees him $32.4 million, according to Ken Rosenthal. Because he has just one year of service time, this deal buys out two remaining pre-arb years, three arbitration seasons, and then his first free agent year, while also giving the Braves an option for a second free agent year at just $12 million.
The easy comparison is the Madison Bumgarner deal signed in April of 2012. Because that deal was completed after opening day, it’s officially only a five year extension, but in reality, it covers the same time period as this deal for Teheran, and could be more accurately described as a six year deal since the extension didn’t kick in for 12 months from the signing date. Bumgarner got $35 million in guaranteed money for those six years, and he gave up two free agent years as team options for $12 million. Teheran got a little less in guaranteed money, but also surrendered one fewer free agent year. Regardless, the two deals are very similar, and there’s little question that the Braves used Bumgarner’s contract as something of a template for this Teheran deal.
Chatting from 11:30 to 1:00 ET today
| 11:26 |
:
|
| 11:27 |
: Happy Corporate-Created Holiday everyone! Let’s chat
|
| 11:29 |
Any hope for any of the vets in the Marlins infield? Late round fliers?
|
||||||
| 11:31 |
Are you concerned about Encarnacion’s wrist? Feel like we’ve heard nothing about it recently.
|
||||||
| 11:33 |
What are your thoughts on Kevin Gausman? Thanks.
|
||||||
| 11:36 |
The Rays model is based on turning over expiring contracts for future talent. If they can’t do this with Price is it the beginning of the end for their competitive cycle?
|
||||||
The other day, I got the idea to compare UZR data against data taken from the results of the Fan Scouting Report. Though there are certain things I’d change about the methodology were I to repeat the study, I’m still content with what I found, and I think it’s interesting to look at where the fans and where the numbers don’t see eye-to-eye. For example: Juan Uribe, when he’s playing in the field. The numbers have loved him. The fans have tolerated him. That’s interesting, even if I don’t know exactly why — yet. It might just have to do with the way Uribe looks, but there could be more to it than that.
Anyhow, once I compared and contrasted fans and numbers in the past, I felt the urge to do a similar sort of thing looking forward. FanGraphs hosts a few different projection systems; among them are the Fan projections and the Steamer projections. Soon, we’ll also have full ZiPS data, but we don’t have that uploaded yet. But we can make do with those two. Many fan opinions are in, and all the Steamer evaluations are in. Which players and pitchers do the fans like more? Which players and pitchers do the fans like less? Is there anything we can learn from what we find?
It’s a simple thing to say, but there’s an important interplay between the swing and the miss when it comes to pitching. In order to get a swinging strike, you need to get the batter to swing and you need to get them to miss. These are, in effect, two different skills, even if the best pitchers are awesome at both. And so it’s not surprising that we have two different metrics for that moment — whiffs per swing (whiff% in some places) and whiffs per pitch or swinging strike rate (swsTR% here). We probably need both. Is one better?
Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Mike Trout, Masahiro Tanaka, Javier Baez, and more, and Ben talks to Ricky Smith about being Jetered (at 44:17).
Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
