Ben and Sam answer listener emails about meaningless splits, data leaks, exploiting unwritten rules, and more.
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Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.
Domingo Santana, OF, Houston Astros (Profile)
Level: AAA Age: 21 Top-15: 8th Top-100: N/A
Line: .304/.383/.502, 13 HR, 5 SB, 40-99 BB-K
What follows represents an attempt by the author to utilize the projections available at the site to identify the five major-league hitters whose WAR projections have most improved on a rate basis since the beginning of the season.
For every batter, what I’ve done is first to calculate his preseason (PRE) WAR projection per every 550 plate appearances (or 415 for catchers), averaging together Steamer and ZiPS forecasts where both are available. What I’ve done next is to calculate every hitter’s rest-of-season (ROS) WAR projection (again, prorated to 550 PA and using both Steamer and ZiPS when available). I’ve then found the difference in WAR per 550 PA between the preseason and rest-of-season projection.
When I attempted a similar exercise two months ago, I used updated end-of-season projections instead of rest-of-season ones. The advantage of the latter (and why I’m using it here) is that it provides the closest available thing to an estimate of any given player’s current true-talent level — which, reason dictates, is what one requires to best identify those players who have most improved.
Yesterday, Bryce Harper returned from the disabled list. This is good news for the Nationals, since Bryce Harper is good at baseball. Having more good baseball players is not a bad thing for a team trying to win, so a returning Harper is a net positive for the organization. However, Harper’s return is not entirely without controversy.
As Wendy Thurm noted after her conversation with Ryan Zimmerman a few weeks ago, Zimmerman enjoyed playing the outfield more than he enjoyed playing third base. His shoulder issues, and the mental pressure that came with making the throw across the diamond, were not a factor in the outfield, allowing him to enjoy the game in a way that he wasn’t at third base. However, Harper’s return means that there is not an outfield spot for Zimmerman any longer, and on Monday night, he went back to third base.
Before the game, Bryce Harper publicly disagreed with the decision. Read the rest of this entry »
| 9:14 |
: Well that’s the latest I’ve ever been, probably
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| 9:14 |
: Now I’m kind of embarrassed. Only solution is to start chatting posthaste!
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| 9:14 |
Since it’s the thing to talk about this morning, what do you make of Bryce Harper’s comments? |
| 9:15 |
: One thing to understand: being out west, I have far less time to digest these things before the chat than people out east do. But I did run across this in the last 20 minutes or so. It’s actually one of the reasons I’m a little late
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| 9:16 |
: Harper just needs to be quiet. If he’s got opinions, he should be able to feel free to share them in private with his manager, but you can’t go around talking to the media about things like this. Lines get drawn, walls go up, colleagues are put off. I don’t care if Harper was just being honest — this was dumb of him. Dumb and young
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| 9:17 |
Raul Ibanez makes little sense in the Royals outfield. Is he Eric Hosmer’s replacement at first if a trip to the minors is needed, or is he Billy Butler’s replacement if Butler is at first? |
Of the many new statistics brought into play by the so-called sabermetric revolution, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, for the uninitiated) has arguably gained the most mainstream traction. Virtually everyone these days accepts the limitations of the ERA statistic, and appreciate the fact that FIP attempts to credit the pitcher for the outcomes which he truly controls, while trying to weed out the vagaries of context. This just in, though – FIP is far from perfect itself. Case in point – Chris Young, the NBA-sized righty now plying his trade for the Seattle Mariners, currently possesses a 3.15 ERA…..and a 5.00 FIP. Even this deep into the season, we’re accustomed to seeing pitchers with sizeable ERA/FIP disparities, but a 1.85 difference is beyond the pale. What on earth is going on here? Read the rest of this entry »
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Washington | 19:05 ET
Christian Friedrich (10.0 IP, 117 xFIP-, -0.1 WAR) faces Stephen Strasburg (104.2 IP, 70 xFIP-, 2.4 WAR). A discerning gastronome could very probably ask reasonable questions regarding the authenticity of certain dishes which appear on the menu of Chen Yang Li, a Chinese restaurant located in Bow, NH, and patronized with some regularity by the author’s family. What no one can deny, however, is the presence on that same menu of an entree called Chicken Amazing — which name, one notes, features the word chicken plus then then word amazing. Were one to employ a similar strategy in producing a sobriquet for Washington right-hander Stephen Strasburg, a likely result might be Pitcher Amazing — which is to say a noun describing Strasburg’s job title (i.e. pitcher) plus the adjective amazing again. As noted yesterday, Strasburg is among the league’s best starters by park-adjusted xFIP (70 xFIP-), swinging-strike rate (12.0%), overall strike rate (67.2%), and average fastball velocity (94.4 mph).
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.
Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.
Summary
Beck’s all-around profile merits consideration.
About a week ago, Jake Arrieta tried to throw a perfect game against the Cincinnati Reds. I mean, every pitcher is always trying to throw a perfect game, but Arrieta actually made a lot of progress before ultimately falling short. Then, Monday, Arrieta tried to no-hit the Red Sox. A no-hitter is a little less perfect than a perfect game, but Arrieta got deeper before ultimately falling short — again. He departed to a standing ovation in Fenway Park. For Arrieta, in the small picture, it was a pair of frustrating missed shots at history. For Arrieta, in the bigger picture, it was a twin demonstration of the pitcher Arrieta is becoming. You might not realize this, but the Cubs rotation has the highest WAR in the National League, and it’s not all because of the two trade targets.
Once again, in his latest start, Arrieta was masterful. Once again, Arrieta kept hitters off balance by mixing everything and featuring a lot of his new, improved slider. Or maybe it’s a cutter — people haven’t agreed. Arrieta was constantly down and constantly on the edges, and as the Red Sox waited for him to make mistakes, he picked up out after out. Arrieta turned in a start worthy of a tribute, so, as a tribute, I’ve taken care to identify the eight worst pitches Arrieta threw to the Red Sox during his 7.2 innings. It wasn’t an easy project.
Ben and Sam discuss the significance of the Astros’ leaked internal trade notes.
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