Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/1/14

July 1, 2014

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Well that’s the latest I’ve ever been, probably

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Now I’m kind of embarrassed. Only solution is to start chatting posthaste!

9:14	Comment From Guest Since it’s the thing to talk about this morning, what do you make of Bryce Harper’s comments?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: One thing to understand: being out west, I have far less time to digest these things before the chat than people out east do. But I did run across this in the last 20 minutes or so. It’s actually one of the reasons I’m a little late

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Harper just needs to be quiet. If he’s got opinions, he should be able to feel free to share them in private with his manager, but you can’t go around talking to the media about things like this. Lines get drawn, walls go up, colleagues are put off. I don’t care if Harper was just being honest — this was dumb of him. Dumb and young

9:17	Comment From Brian Henry Raul Ibanez makes little sense in the Royals outfield. Is he Eric Hosmer’s replacement at first if a trip to the minors is needed, or is he Billy Butler’s replacement if Butler is at first?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: My guess is just that he’s a bench bat who isn’t going to get enough playing time to warrant the usual run of jokes. I mean, he probably shouldn’t be there to begin with, but I doubt he’s going to hurt the Royals too bad. If he plays a lot though, it’s because at least one thing has gone dreadfully wrong

9:18	Comment From Guest How fragile is rosW% at the halfway point of the season? Say the Angels lose Trout to injury and maybe their 3rd best starter?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The rest of the way, Trout’s projected for 4.4 WAR, and the third-best starter is projected for about 1. If you figure the Angels wouldn’t plug in replacement-level players, that would probably knock them down…3 or 4 wins on average

9:19	Comment From jocephus have you ever used a vuvuzela

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: No, but I’ve been ever so close

9:20	Comment From Guest Oswaldo Arcia: pre-season fantasy darling, but how does he forecast in real life now? his batted ball distance is down from superb to pedestrian, and the BB/K is as ugly as ever

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: take a glance and he’s almost exactly where he was last season

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: His approach is dreadful, and he’s kept afloat by the occasional extra-base hit. The power is real and the power is his greatest asset, but Arcia is a major project, and one that has no guarantee of working out very well

9:22	Comment From john Domingo Santana! Is he up for good? I liked what he’s been doing at AAA as a 21 year old, although he could K less. Think the astros are also trying to break the K record?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: It does kind of seem like the theme of things. Here’s another talented young Astro. He does just about everything well, besides make contact with the baseball

9:23	Comment From Asdrubal Cabrera What are the chances I’m still an Indian on August 1?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s more likely than not, if the Indians are still close enough to believe they’re playing for something. I was expecting Lindor to do more than he has so far in Double-A. Not that I think he’s busting or anything, but he’s just taking his time

9:25	Comment From Guest What is Chris Carter worth and do you think it would be worth while for the Mariners to pick him up?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Chris Carter is Mike Zunino without the defense. Without any defense. He probably isn’t too far from washing out of the league

9:26	Comment From Guest Are the Pirates one of the 5 best teams in the NL right now?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s go with one of the six best teams in the NL right now

9:28	Comment From Guest Has FG ever discussed moving to a SIERA-based WAR? As currently constructed, FIP-based WAR underrates GB specialists, correct? I’m referring to Zach Britton specifically – 3.24 FIP, 2.11 SIERA, 78.5% GB rate.

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: FIP has its limitations, especially with certain relief pitchers, but we don’t need to try to overfit things, and we don’t need to involve line-drive rate in measuring a pitcher’s value. It’s probably true that SIERA better captures what Britton has been to this point, but it’s probably true that FIP better captures what Britton will be

9:30	Comment From Dylan What position would you have Mike Trout play for the U.S. Men’s National Team?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: None of them. He’d be terrible!

9:30	Comment From Gus Welcome, Jeff. Are you beginning to feel some stirring of heart strings for the Mariners, or are you suppressing emotion until they win something meaningful?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: It’s just nice to care in July. It’s nice to actually want to turn on a game. No, the team isn’t great, but what kind of position am I in to be greedy?

9:31	Comment From Terrible Ted Happy Canada Day!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: bye Jason Spezza 🙁

9:31	Comment From noether What’s your take on the Astros leak?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Kind of embarrassing, all kinds of fascinating, fun to peruse if nothing’s been fabricated. The Astros were smart to allege that some of it was straight made-up, to give other teams an explanatory way out. I wonder if future baseball organizations are going to have hackers on staff. I wonder if they’ll acknowledge as much.

9:34	Comment From Guest please compare Springer and DSantana on offense…

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Springer hits the crap out of the ball, Santana hits the snot out of the ball. Springer is more capable of maximizing his contact, but Santana’s also considerably younger so he deserves the benefit of the doubt. To date, Santana has been more of a groundball guy, but he’s been a 21-year-old slugging .500 in Triple-A. It’s an interesting piece for what had been one of the Astros’ few remaining black holes

9:36	Comment From Dave The Cubs probably wont try to trade Arrieta will they? There’s only a SSS of him being good, and a long list of why he’s not good

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: They need to keep some pitchers, and right now they’re probably bigger believers in him than any other front office since they’ve personally observed his maturation

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Need to be wary of a 2012-2013 repeat, where Arrieta takes a step backward, but it sure feels like he’s approaching the level of special

9:37	Comment From United Fucking States Has your appreciation of soccer: remained dormant, grown modestly, or blossomed into full rabid engagement

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been fun, but I can’t see this being a regular thing for me. Once every few years is plenty. I have an extremely strong appreciation of soccer having a set, reliable duration from start to finish

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The spirit of patriotism is unusual but I’ve just been conditioned not to trust groups of people loudly and proudly expressing their love of the US. I know this is different but it looks the same on paper

9:42	Comment From greg what do you think of Taijuan’s first start back?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry, had to wait for a page to load

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, Walker didn’t have tremendous command, and in reality he might never have tremendous command, but did you notice the new thing that he did?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Walker’s changeup counts over his four big-league starts: 6, 2, 2, 21

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He admitted that, yesterday, because he didn’t really have his good fastball, he leaned more on his change, and that’s something he didn’t used to be able to do. So it’s encouraging. He’s better than Erasmo Ramirez.

9:44	Comment From all betts are off Danny Espinosa – one of the best second basemen in the league…from the mouths of babes…

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So much love for Espinosa’s 0.3 WAR. So little love for Span’s 1.2.

9:46	Comment From Guest Danny Salazar looking good last night. Do you think he’s righted the ship?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: The good news is he’s thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes in Triple-A, which is last year’s territory and a departure from earlier-this-year’s territory. I think it’s still fair to be skeptical and a little concerned, but Salazar, for the most part, has done what he was supposed to do during his demotion, so he shouldn’t be far off from getting another opportunity

9:47	Comment From J6takish Does your opinion of a trade differ depending on who the GM is? If billy beane had done the doug fister trade, would the internet reaction been as vehement?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I’m aware of the fact that I have my biases, and I try really hard to correct for them before I offer any analysis, but I can’t pretend like there isn’t an effect. Of course I’m going to be a little biased in favor of the guys I think are better. I’m not entirely convinced that’s a bad thing, but it’s probably too much of that thing.

9:48	Comment From J Dog Well is Doolittle’s reign over? Or at least, is it time to develop a new pitch?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: This month he has a walk and 22 strikeouts in 14.1 innings

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Even Clayton Kershaw got bombed once by the Diamondbacks for no good reason.

9:49	Comment From Santiago Provided the Cubs don’t trade thir SP. what do you thnk about a Samardzija, Arrieta, Hammel, Price rotation?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: That would be a very good rotation, that will never exist

9:50	Comment From Matt So did the Giants lose their chemistry all of a sudden and the Dodgers find chemistry? Where did the Red Sox chemistry go? Can we stop talking about chemistry?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The problem with people having asserted that the Dodgers had too many clubhouse problems is that a year ago they had a very similar clubhouse and they ripped off a hot streak of historical significance!

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’m open to the belief that clubhouse attitudes have an effect, and that psychology remains an underrated aspect of day-to-day performance. But you should always bet on talent. Talent sets you on the right course.

9:52	Comment From Dewey But we knew this about Harper, so why expect anything less, and why are people so shocked?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I think people are shocked because when is the last time a player talked like this to the media? Who second-guesses a manager like that, out in the open?

9:52	Comment From Ernie Are the Giants even a wildcard team at this point? Or are they in serious trouble of missing the playoffs altogether?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Isn’t it fine to say they’re a decent team that was playing over its own head? Coming into the year, they looked to be very strong wild-card contenders. Right now, they’re a strong wild-card contender. Presumably, they are not as strong as the Dodgers are. You don’t want to overreact to a cold spell, just as one wouldn’t have wanted to overreact to a hot spell. Long seasons aren’t really that long, but they do allow for certain things to settle

9:54	Comment From Art Vandelay I know it’s only two homers, but is this a good sign for Cano?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a bad sign for Cano

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: All of a sudden he’s slugging .485 for the month

9:55	Comment From Endy Ballgame Will the Mariners acquire a bat, and if so, who do you imagine it’s most likely to be?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think they end up with some kind of outfield role player. Perhaps an LF regular to take the place of the dreadful Dustin Ackley, but I don’t think it’ll be an expensive acquisition

9:56

Comment From GSon
I like the move by the Royals to bring in a veteran who can stay ready (Ibanez is noted for his preparation and being in shape) when his opportunities arise while giving counsel to the younger players.. Do you see Ibanez’s role being akin to Jason Giambi’s for the Indians last season?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: That is probably the idea.

9:57	Comment From Gus Where does baseball sit on the spectrum of internationally popular sports? It’s mostly New World + Japan/Korea…seems something like gridiron football and Aussie Rules would have to be among the more insular sports.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball is slowly wrapping its tentacles around the earth, but you’re still not ever going to have a conversation about Mike Trout’s WAR in Africa

9:58	Comment From Joe How much of Jake Arrieta’s recent success is likely to continue? His GB and K% are significantly better, but his home run rate doesn’t seem sustainable.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: That’s what xFIP’s for, right? And he has one of baseball’s best xFIPs. 2.48. Right now I suspect he’s pitching over his stuff, but even a 5-10% decrease across the board leaves a heck of a starting pitcher, acquired for a dozen starts or so of Scott Feldman