Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Detroit | 20:00 ET
Tim Hudson (172.2 IP, 94 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) faces Kyle Lobstein (17.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). Following play this past Thursday, the Giants and Tigers possessed odds of 54% and 67%, respectively, of qualifying for their leagues’ respective divisional series. Two subsequent Giants victories in Detroit, however, have aided slightly the cause of the former club (whose odds are now 56%) while damaging more substantially the latter’s (which now sit at 52%). Of some interest entering this game is rookie starter Kyle Lobstein, who, in his most recent start at Cleveland, recorded three times the strikeouts while throwing just half the innings of his first two major-league appearances combined. His final line from that game (box): 5.1 IP, 24 TBF, 10 K, 3 BB, 7 GB on 11 batted balls (63.6%), 2.01 xFIP.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio (ESPN Game).

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Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins agree that closers could earn more multiple-inning saves and throw more overall innings. But they don’t necessarily feel they should, and they certainly don’t see it happening.

Once upon a time, it wasn’t all that uncommon for a team’s top bullpen arm to log a lot of action. Notable examples are Mike Marshall, John Hiller and Goose Gossage.

In a six-year stretch from 1971-1976, Marshall averaged 73.5 appearances and 137 innings, and twice led the league in saves. Between 1973-1974, Hiller averaged 62 appearances and 137 innings, and had a 38-save season. Gossage averaged 56 appearances and 78 innings in the 10 seasons in which he saved at least 20.

Five closers have at least 40 saves so far this year, and all are averaging less than an inning per appearance. Of them, only Trevor Rosenthal – currently at 66 – is likely to finish with as many as 70 innings.

Nathan and Perkins are used in much the same manner. Over his career, Nathan has thrown 746 innings in 738 relief outings. In his three seasons as a closer, Perkins has pitched 192 innings in 191 appearances. Earlier this summer I asked both if a return to the Marshall-Hiller-Gossage days was possible. Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Detroit | 13:08 ET
Madison Bumgarner (191.0 IP, 77 xFIP-, 3.8 WAR) faces David Price (210.1 IP, 72 xFIP-, 4.9 WAR). The discerning reader will note, within the table below, that this contest has received a perfect 10 according to the metric devised incautiously by the author with a view towards estimating a game’s likely aesthetic appeal. One reason why is, is the Giants and Tigers enter today featuring playoff odds perilously close — along with Oakland, in fact, the perilously closest — to 50%. Bumgarner and Price, meanwhile, belong to that small class of pitchers who offer both above-average run prevention and above-average other-notable-qualities (like swinging-strike rate and/or overall strike rate and/or velocity, etc).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, purple for NotGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Episode 479
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses mostly roster expansion but also not roster expansion, too.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min play time.)

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It’s a sign of the times that, when you think about Mike Zunino, you might well first think of his defense. He’s proven himself to be a tremendous receiver of pitches, and when you fold in the rest of his defensive skillset, Zunino has a lot of value, even independent of his bat. There’s evidence to suggest that Zunino is one of the people behind Felix Hernandez’s Cy Young-caliber campaign, and Zunino’s been trusted as a staff leader in his first full year in the bigs. Behind the plate, and off the field, Zunino scores high marks. At the plate, he’s also been interesting, but in more of a peculiar way.

It’s easy enough to look at the normal numbers. An 84 wRC+? He’s young, and, good thing he plays a premium defensive position. A .199 average, a .254 OBP, and a .404 slugging? This provides more insight on the sort of hitter Zunino is — he’s the picture of an over-aggressive power hitter, and you can see why his offensive profile has drawn comparisons to J.P. Arencibia. We’re familiar with this kind of hitter, and most teams probably have at least one or two of this kind of hitter. But it’s in the more minute details that Zunino’s season really stands out.

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I’m a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, which means that I’m part of the pool of writers who are asked to cast ballots for MLB’s postseason awards. The MVP and Cy Young are the two big ones that get most of the attention, and then there’s Rookie of the Year, which has more recently turned into the Prominent International Star Who Made His MLB Debut This Year award — Jose Abreu will be accepting that one for 2014, though they’ll probably stick with the shorter title for now.

There’s also a fourth award that BBWAA members are asked to vote on — Manager of the Year. It’s the one award that we’re asked to give out that doesn’t go to a player, and not coincidentally, it’s the one in which there is usually the least consensus. Last year, nine American League managers received at least one vote in one of the three slots listed on the ballot, which might not sound like a lot until you remember that there are only 15 managers in the American League, so more managers got votes than those who didn’t.

This is what happens when you ask a panel of diverse members to try and come to agreement on a subject that is inherently difficult to measure. This challenge is compounded by the fact that there is literally no criteria or guidance provided along with the ballot. For comparison, the MVP ballot contains the following instructions:

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The Royals lead the American League Central by one game over the Tigers after Detroit defeated the Indians Thursday night, 11-4 in 11 innings. The teams are even in wins with 77; the Tigers have two additional losses. The Royals are 19-19 in blowout games and 20-22 in one run games. For the Tigers, those numbers are 23-18 (blowouts) and 20-18 (one run games). Both teams have a higher winning percentage on the road and both have dominated in interleague games.

This morning, FanGraphs’ playoff odds gave the Tigers a 54.5% chance of taking the division. The Royals’ odds are at 44.4%. No other division race features such closely-divided odds. Even in the National League West race between the Dodgers and Giants — which the Dodgers lead by two games with 22 to play — FanGraphs gives LA an 83.3% chance of winning the division.

If you believe the projections, the AL Central race is as close as it can get between the Royals and the Tigers. And yet the teams have reached this point in completely different ways. Read the rest of this entry »

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Jake Peavy (171.1 IP, 111 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (180.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.0 WAR). Insofar as the two clubs here belong neither to the same division nor even the same actual league, one might suppose that the sense of urgency produced by this match is necessarily low-ish. What the numbers reveal, however, are two clubs among four total in the majors whose odds of reaching the divisional series remain within 20 points of 50%. To that end, then, really every match in which either is included offers much in the way of urgency. A more promising state of affairs, that, than for those of us who governed by the alternating forces of fear and depraved self-interest.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Televiion.

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