2015 FAN Projections!
The 2015 FAN Projection ballots are now open!
Before you can project any players, you’ll have to select the team you follow most closely towards the top of the screen. If you really don’t follow a team, just pick one. You’ll only have to do this once.
After you’ve selected a team, there are 9 categories for pitchers and 10 categories for position players. Pick the values in the drop-down boxes closest to what you think the player will do in 2015, hit the submit button and you’re done! If you made a mistake, you can always go back and change your selection at any time.
Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.
That’s really all there is to it. You can filter players by team, or if you go to the player pages, you can project players individually. If you want to see all the players you’ve projected, you can click on the “My Rankings” button which will show you only what you specifically projected a player to do.
Fan Projections will show up on the player pages after there have been 5 ballots submitted.
If you do notice any issues, please let us know.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
This is my first time doing this ballot, so I apologize if this had been previously established, but it seems like the teams the players are sorted by is based on where they played in 2014. For example, Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd are both still Phillies, and the Dodgers still have Dee Gordon, Shawn Kemp, etc. Is this usual?
Yeah, and the Sonics still have Gary Payton, so…
Yes, players are listed by the team they played on the previous year, but you can always just go to a player page and click on that player’s FAN Projection link if you’re looking for someone specific and can’t find where he is.
Thank you!
A philosophical question: Are we supposed to project what we think the players’ statistics would like like based on their true talent, in a neutral environment, or in the environment we expect them to play in in 2015? As in, should we project a pitcher on a team with good defence to continue having an E.R.A. that beats his peripherals, or should we project what we think his E.R.A. would look like with average fielders behind him? Thanks!
It says “pick what you think the player will do in 2015” so I take that to mean include any and all factors that will matter.
You should pick what you think the player’s actual stats will be in 2015, park and all.
Good to know, thanks, guys!
Why are the ranges so large? For instance, the range for ERA is from 3.5-3.99? A 3.5 ERA pitcher is solidly above average, a 3.99 ERA pitcher is barely replacement level. Couldn’t the ranges be smaller?
Also, this is just a pet peeve of mine, but for walk and strikeout rates it ignores certain ranges. For instance, it goes from 8-10% to 11-13% to 14-16%, effectively going by 3% (!) at a time. What if I think a player is going to have a walk rate of just above 10% (Lucas Duda for example)? That doesn’t fit into any range and is a staggering 1.5% away from the next closest answer.
I filled out projections for my team but I’m not going to do anymore (even though I have my own pitching projection system) because of these inaccuracies.
Well, these are not really designed for individual use. They are designed to be very simple to enter and then aggregated. Basically, as long as you choose which one you think a player is most likely you do, it will work out.
That makes sense, but wouldn’t it still be possible to have ranges that encompass every possible number without sacrificing that? If, as Noah said, the K/B% ranges were switched to, say, 8-10, 10-12, 12-14, etc, I feel like it would still be able to accomplish its goal, but for more accuracy for people’s projections.
I agree with what Blueyays says above but I also understand your point.
I guess it’s just frustrating to put Madison Bumgarner and Ervin Santana in the same ERA range. It doesn’t feel right.
Could you change the numbers for K% and BB%? Because the range now is 5%-7%, 8%-10% so it excludes all values from 7% to 7.99%.
Is there any way you can make the My Rankings chart sortable? I see that now it’s going by WAR.
steamer projections are a joke. then allowing anyone to make fan projections it kind of dumb but that will be better than the steamers projections and probably zips. so they will probably be the best.
Steamer and Zips have outperformed the FANS projections in almost every comparison that I’ve seen. While FANS is better at playing time estimates than a simple algorithm that has no knowledge of injuries, manager’s proclivities, upcoming prospects, etc, the FANS tend to way overestimate most player’s abilities and underrate players coming off of bad seasons.
Saying that Steamer is a joke is a joke itself.
what about baseballhq.
I don’t know. What about it? I haven’t seen them compared to others.
I think it’s probably time to switch Mauer’s position.
I think it’s probably time to switch Mauer’s position. Thanks.
This is so cool!