2015 Trade Value: The Full List
Over the last five days, we’ve gone through my take on the 50 most valuable trade chips in baseball, 10 players at a time. But I figure it’s helpful to see the whole list together as well, so with the help of Sean Dolinar — if you’ve enjoyed the upgraded visuals around here the last few months, let him know, because he’s the guy behind it all — we’ve created a unified graphic of the smaller images we put at the end of each post. This breaks down each player’s projected ZIPS WAR over the next five seasons (or for however many years of those five years they’re under team control for), while also displaying their contract status, with guaranteed salaries listed in gray, team options in blue, and arbitration (or pre-arb) years listed in green.
If you missed any of the posts, below I’ve included the links to the individual breakdowns, with some explanation for why each player rates where he does. If your favorite player isn’t on this list, I promise it’s not because I’m biased against your team, or hate you personally; in a lot of cases, it’s simply because I had to draw an arbitrarily line somewhere in the midst of a crowd of similar players. George Springer, for instance, has generated some comments based on his exclusion, but if you wanted to swap him in for some of the guys in the 41-50 range, I wouldn’t argue much; there are a lot of similarly valuable players who could have ended up towards the back half of the list.
And there are some really terrific performers who just ended up missing the cut because the game has been absolutely flooded with elite young talent lately. The best player in baseball is 23, and the couple of guys who have the best chance to claim the #2 spot over the next few years are both 22. Then there’s the 23 year old rookie third baseman who draws Mike Schmidt comparisons and the 20 year old shortstop who looks like like he might already be the best player in the AL at his position. The two best pitchers are 27 and 26, and then there’s a bunch of 24-26 year olds who dominate the next tier down. I don’t remember baseball ever being dominated by a group this good at these ages. It’s remarkable, and that depth of young talent displaced some guys who would easily have made the list in a more normal environment.
And from my perspective, this exercise isn’t really about identifying the narrow differences in trade value among specific players anyway; it’s more about thinking through the pros and cons of performance and cost, the and the trade-off between present and future. The interesting questions, for me, aren’t whether the Pirates would trade Andrew McCutchen for Carlos Correa — both players are more valuable to their own franchises than another organization, making a trade like that a bad idea for all parties — but how you weigh different levels of certainty and risk against upside and long-term value.
This is a particularly nerdy endeavor with few practical applications, since — Josh Donaldson aside — nobody in this tier ever gets traded. But it’s fun for me to work through, and hopefully fun for you guys to read as well. Thanks for taking the time to read and comment, and I look forward to doing this again next year. Who knows, maybe by then someone will challenge Mike Trout for the top spot. Okay, probably not, but hey, the fight for #2 will be interesting!
The links, and then the graphic.
All 2015 Trade Value Posts
#1 to #10
#11 to #20
#21 to #30
#31 to #40
#41 to #50
Honorable Mentions
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Great job as always, Dave. Sean, too – love the visuals.
It seems like you’ve been defending your definition of trade value a lot. You don’t need to. If people really want to know who the best players are going to be for the rest of this season alone, they can find that elsewhere. What you do makes for a far more interesting list, and if that’s lost on certain fans, that’s their problem.
If every team in the majors released all of their players and a fantasy draft were scheduled for the next day, where the teams were drafting not only the players but also their existing contracts, I’m pretty confident the first two rounds would go down awfully close to your rankings.
Great work, as always!
Can we get a break down of the count of players by team, division, and league on the top 50?
Yeah, was hoping to do that for this post, but six month olds need attention. Maybe an InstaGraphs next week.
AMERICAN: 21
AL East: 5
BAL: 1 / BOS: 2 / NYY: 0 / TB: 1 / TOR: 1
AL Central: 10
CHW: 3 / CLE: 4 / DET: 0 / KC: 2 / MIN: 1
AL West: 6
HOU: 3 / LAA: 1 / OAK: 1 / SEA: 1 / TEX: 0
*****
NATIONAL: 29
NL East: 10
ATL: 2 / MIA: 3 / NYM: 3 / PHI: 0 / WAS: 2
NL Central: 11
CHC: 4 / CIN: 1 / MIL: 1 / PIT: 3 / STL: 2
NL West: 8
ARI: 1 / COL: 1 / LAD: 3 / SD: 0 / SF: 3
Can confirm the above numbers, I have the same on my spreadsheet.
To piggyback with further information by position:
C: 4
1B: 4
2B: 5
SS: 4
3B: 5
OF: 10(2 LF 4 CF and 4 RF)
SP: 18
I decided to go a little further in depth to try to quantify what each team owns and what it might be worth to them. Similar to how Dave calculated Trout’s surplus value, I’ve calculated the surplus value for each player on this list, by calculating how much each player should be worth over the next five years (2016-2020), or whatever portion of those five years they are owned for, and then subtracting the actual amount they’ll earn over that time.
Methodology:
To determine how much each player is worth, I took their projected WAR value for the next five years only (less if they’re controlled for fewer seasons) and multiplied it by the standard $7 million per win. This amount is shown as the first number in parentheses after each player’s name.
To determine how much each player is going to earn, I had to do a little guesswork when it came to arbitration. As per a 2013 BP article entitled “The Cost of a Cost Controlled Win,” I estimated that players receive about $2 million per WAR in arbitration. For pre-arb years, I assumed the player would earn the league minimum $0.5 million. The amount the player is actually earning is shown in parentheses subtracted from the player’s projected worth.
The surplus value (projected worth minus projected salary) is shown after the player’s name in front of the parentheses with a dollar sign in front of it.
The players are organized by team, and the total surplus value the organization gains from these players is listed as a total $ amount, in millions, before the players’ names.
I know this is a little late getting posted and I don’t know how many people are still reading these comments, but hopefully someone will read and appreciate this so it doesn’t completely go to waste! Is there somewhere else on fangraphs that I could post something like this?
Orioles: $100.5 million. Machado $100.5 million ($140.7 million projected value minus $40.2 million projected salary)?Red Sox: $239 million. Betts $153.1 (186.9 – 33.8) / Bogaerts $85.9 (110.6 – 24.7)
Yankees: 0
Rays: $116.05 million. Archer $116.05 ($146.3 – $30.25)
Blue Jays: $76.6 million. Donaldson $76.6 ($123.2 – $46.6*)
White Sox: $245.5 million. Sale $117.95(166.6 – 48.65) / Abreu $35.4 (79.8 – 44**) / Quintana 92.15 (134.4 – 42.25)
Indians: $327.65 million. Kluber $105 (154-49) / Carrasco $68.9 (106.4 – 37.5) / Gomes 94.95 (123.9 – 28.95) / Kipnis $58.8 (118.3 – 59.5)
Tigers: 0
Royals: $174.35 million. Perez $80.55 (97.3 – 16.75) / Ventura $93.8 (126 – 32.2)
Twins: $105.2 million. Buxton $105.2 (122.5 – 17.3)
Astros: $288.9 million. Correa $153.6 (178.5 – 24.9) / Altuve $80.3 (100.8 – 20.5) / Keuchel $55 (77 – 22)
Angels: $194.75 million. Trout $194.75 (329 – 134.25)
Athletics: $103.4 million. Gray $103.4 (132.3 – 28.9)
Mariners: $47.2 million. Hernandez $47.2 (151.2 – 104)
Rangers: 0
Braves: $92.7 million. Simmons $69.5 (122.5 – 53) / Freeman $23.2 (116.2 – 93)
Marlins: $248.5 million. Stanton $82.9 (183.4 – 100.5) / Fernandez $61.5 (86.1 – 24.6) / Yelich $104.1 (137.9 – 33.8)
Mets: $265 million. deGrom $106.6 (128.8 – 22.2) / Syndergaard $96 (117.6 – 21.6) / Harvey $62.5 (87.5 – 25)
Phillies: 0
Nationals: $205.1 million. Harper $96.2 (133.7 – 37.5*) / Rendon $108.9 (138.6 – 29.7)
Cubs: $420 million. Bryant $117.5 (146.3 – 28.8) / Rizzo $113.7 (158.2 – 44.5) / Russell $122.2 (154 – 31.8) / Soler $66.6 (88.2 – 21.6**)
Reds: $41.1 million. Frazier 41.1 (60.9 – 19.8*)
Brewers: $48.85 million. Lucroy $48.85 (58.1 – 9.25)
Pirates: $266.9 million. McCutchen $85.2 (126.7 – 41.5) / Cole $93.7 (120.4 – 26.7) / Marte $88 (126 – 38)
Cardinals: $151.7 million. Wacha $77.8 (100.1 – 22.3) / Martinez $73.9 (96.6 – 22.7)
Diamondbacks: $100 million. Goldschmidt $100 (140 – 40)
Rockies: $96.5 million. Arenado $96.5 (135.1 – 38.6)
Dodgers: $341.5 million. Pederson $125.2 (152.6 – 27.4) / Puig $93.7 (126 – 32.3**) / Seager $122.6 (142.1 – 19.5) /
Padres: 0
Giants: $245.95 million. Bumgarner $80.75 (126 – 45.25) / Posey $82 (187.6 – 105.6) / Panik $83.2 (102.2 – 19)
*In the cases of Donaldson, Harper, and Frazier, since salaries needed to be calculated for later Arb seasons only, I’ve increased the projected arbitration amount to $3 million per WAR during Arb3 and Arb4 seasons while retaining the $2 million value for Arb2 seasons.
**In the cases of Soler and Puig I’ve assumed they will opt into arbitration, as they stand to earn more money that way given these projections. I have not done this in the case of Abreu, as he would earn less by that calculation.
You can submit posts to the community blog.
This looks like good work. It would be really cool to Dow few more things. First, looking past 5 years. Obviously you can’t. Second, some appreciation of the value of a win. I’d be conservative in that, but it’s not nothing. And looking at more than 50 players would be cool, too. Again, obviously you can’t do that.
This is awesome work, Ben, and a great idea. Too bad most people missed it due to it being posted a day too late — it would definitely be worth finding another place to post it.
Mind you, I might just be saying that because I’m a Cubs fan ($420M!!)
Shouldn’t George Springer be on here? He’s almost as good as someone like Lucroy is right now and has much more control. I’d take him over many of the guys near the bottom.
Let it go, let it goooooo!!!!!!!!!!!
read the second paragraph
Thanks Dave!
Might also be interesting to see a breakdown by team of the number of people on the list. Who has the most , who has nobody, etc
Those Mike Trout projections.
I guess the only way for someone to challenge Trout would for Bryant or Correa to have a monster breakout first half of 2016 (like Harper had in 2015) right after signing an absurd team friendly extension this off season.
I’m not sure Bryant can do that even with an astronomical breakout year. Correa has that miniscule chance if he looks like ARod next season, but that’s only due to positional weakness. It’s just ungodly how ahead Trout is.
NL 29
AL 21
NLC 11
ALC 10
NLE 10
NLW 8
ALW 6
ALE 5
4 players
Cle, ChC
3 players
ChW, Hou, NYM. Fla, Pot, LAD, SF
2 players
Bos, KC, Was, Atl, Stl
1 player
TB, Tor, Bal, Min, LAA, Oak, Sea, Cin, Mil, Ari, Col
0 players
Det, NYY, Tex, Phi, SD
Wait a minute…I thought Cole Hamels was worth at least Betts + Bogaerts, no?
Y’know, the Mets do have Bonilla under a pretty team-friendly contract until 2035…that’s gotta count for something.
Yeah, but his five-year ZIPS projection is zero.
Which means he’s replacement level, right? Woo hoo!
Which makes him my every day right fielder!
Speaking of this, where’s the ANTI- trade value list? The players with the most negative value vis-a-vis their contracts.
Doesn’t Dave usually post a top (bottom) 5 sometime after this list is done?
Make your move bro …
Using a completely meaningless reverse count scoring system (50pts for #1, 49 for #2, etc.) the four Cubs are valued at 111 (47+44+19+1), while the four Clevelands are 59 (32+12+8+7). So, while Cleveland and Chicago are tied with four apiece, the Cubs pieces are much better.
Pittsburgh a close second at 106.
Yea, but when you consider the seasons the Cubs had to have over the last few years to get/draft those pieces , you realize who the real losers are.
You can make a case for Jake Arrieta to be #5 for the Cubbies. His WAR and contract status put him right in there with Lucroy and Frazier at the back end of the list.
Damn, with players like Panik, Soler, Martiez, Buxton, and Perez, filling this list and so close to breaking out and possibly having a 5 WAR season, there’s no wonder Kiermaier and his 5.8 WAR/162 and projected EOS 4.5 WAR for 2015 (his first full season) didn’t make it. I bet the fact that his skill set doesn’t pay very well in arbitration either would make some teams shy away as well. It certainly doesn’t help his cause to not be a prospect, no way he could ever produce 16 WAR over the next 5 years, 2 prearb – 3arb, heading into his prime.
The douche is strong with this one
Does anyone know of an easily downloadable source of contracts/salaries for players?
You’d have to do 30 separate copy/pastes, but Cot’s has all this data in google docs spreadsheets.
Ummm…it appears as if Todd Frazier is still less valuable than Yan Gomes. Did the raving lunatics not convince you to change your mind?
I wish Betts, Pederson, Correa, etc. got a long-term contract today. It’d be really interesting to see how this would affect that player’s ranking.
Where all the angry Tulo fans at
They are quietly commiserating with all the angry Longo fans
As with every year, this series was a fantastic way to get our baseball fix over the AS break. Thanks Dave!
Spit balling here on who might usurp Trout at #1…
Probably not Harper. As his years of control diminish, Trout will remain a higher value even if Harper’s production surpasses Trout. And since Boras is Harper’s agent, he’ll go to free agency. He won’t be giving the Nats any sweetheart deal and is likely to have trade provisions thrown in similar to Kershaw’s contract where he will never return to this list. Machado is in a very similar spot as Harper and probably has a lower ceiling.
Pitchers, i.e. Sale, Archer, etc., never make it to #1 so we can eliminate these.
Similar to Harper, Goldy’s favorable contract years will run dry. Will he give yet another favorable extension to the DBacks? Doubtful.
That leaves Correa and Bryant at the top, as the most likely candidates. First, they have to jump their game to a higher WAR level. I see that as more likely for Correa but who knows. They could also hugely affect the #1 situation by signing very team favorable contracts. Bryant has Boras as agent, so that’s not looking good.
So in the end, if Correa signs a team favorable contract, he could be a Longoria or Tulowitzki type guy. He’ll have to keep up his production closer to Trout levels. And then, as the 5 years of Trout’s contract whittles away with time, Correa could sneak right in there – perhaps in 2 or 3 years, but probably not next year.
Others not at the very top, such as Buxton, Pedersen and Betts would have to lift their games considerably and probably sign team favorable contracts.
If I’m Houston, I offer Correa 7 years/$100 million with a couple of club options this off-season. Sure, it’s a gamble, but does it have any more downside risk than say, the Cano contract?
And at that salary there’s a ton of upside. Possibly enough for him to usurp the Mike Trout Trade Value Crown.
Bryant would have to strike out less, a lot less, I don’t see it. Correa has a chance, but I’d say 95% chance it’s Trout again. 2017 will be interesting. When Trout is about to start the 3/$100 million part of his contract, I’d bet someone passes him.
I wonder what type of results/age/contract a reliever would need to crack this list. All the everyday positions are represented ~ equally and there’s lots ( >1/3 of total) of starters. (“Compton”‘s #s, thx).
Phred
if Dellin was available at league minimum for the rest of his team control, he’d be on it
What’s the rationale for leaving Kershaw off of the list ?
Never mind – he’s in the Honorable Mentions article
He can become a free agent at the end of the season in which he’s traded. So he essentially comes with .5 to 1 year of team control.
Good list. Rendon’s value is plummeting fast though
Damn! Got Rendon and Desmond confused in my mind for some reason. Disregard the comment above!
Where are the 5 year ZIPS from?