JABO: The Argument for Blowing Up the Reds
Nobody wants to have to rebuild. This is an important point. Rebuilding isn’t fun. Maybe it’s more fun from a fan perspective, especially when you’re frustrated by an underwhelming on-field product, but among front offices and ownerships, “rebuilding” is almost a bad word. They try not to use it. Teams are in the business of selling themselves, and when you rebuild, you lose. And it’s hard to sell a loser. Even when there’s a longer-term plan in place, losing is bad for those involved, and it’s bad for revenue. Teams want to be in the mix, and having two wild cards makes that more achievable.
The Reds don’t want to rebuild. In that way they’re like everyone else. They knew coming into this season they were in a difficult spot, with some pending free agents. And the team has lost more than it’s won, so it certainly looks like the Reds are about to sell. The important question, then: How far do they take it? Ought the Reds sell, or ought the Reds Sell?
The other day, I put together a trade proposal linking the Reds and the Blue Jays. The idea was partially built around the premise that the Reds don’t yet want to give up on 2016. Following that course of action, the Reds would look to move just rentals, like Johnny Cueto, obviously, and Mike Leake. There’s going to be value coming back. Cueto might be the best piece on the market. There aren’t even that many pieces on the market. It would be easy for the Reds to justify trying again. The safe decision would be to try to compete next time, because, who knows? It would be tempting. Even with Cueto gone, the Reds wouldn’t be dreadful.
But there’s the safe decision, and there’s the daring decision. It’s the decision no front office wants to make, but I think there’s a convincing argument for just blowing up the Reds. For selling Cueto, but not stopping there. For just taking over the upcoming trade deadline.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
First Stroman, now the entire Reds team? You’re a monster, Mr. Sullivan.
What’s frustrating about the Reds is that the top of their roster is really good. How many teams have a better top 10 than Votto, Frazier, Cueto, Chapman, Bailey, Mesoraco,Bruce, Leake, Cozart, and Hamilton? But giving playing time to guys like Schumacher, Marquis, Boesch, Gregg, and everybody in their bullpen not named Chapman have just killed them.
The Reds top 10 players by WAR have put up 18.8 WAR this year. The Reds as a team have put up 17.7 WAR. So;
Top ten guys: 18.8 WAR
Rest of team combined; -1.1 WAR.
The blame for that goes squarely on the GM. The farm system and scouting guys have been really good. There are very few teams who have produced as much quality major league talent over the last 7-8 years. But Walt has failed to surround those guys with any talent over the last couple years. And now they have to sell, without even winning a playoff series with that core, because they can’t afford to keep some of their best players.
“How many teams have a better top 10 than Votto, Frazier, Cueto, Chapman, Bailey, Mesoraco,Bruce, Leake, Cozart, and Hamilton”
I believe that’s how Jocketty saw it for the last couple of years too, but of those guys only the first four are worth anything, maybe Mesoraco if he could stay healthy.
NL Teams sorted by top10 player fWAR:
TEAM Top10 Others
LAD 24 6
WSN 23 1
SFG 23 -1
CHC 22 2
STL 20 6
PIT 20 2
CIN 19 -1
ARI 17 0
MIA 16 1
NYM 16 5
ATL 16 -2
COL 15 -3
MIL 12 1
SDP 12 -1
PHI 11 -6
Most teams don’t seem to get too much value from the players outside of their top 10
Thanks for doing the research. Good info. But it seems like it just proves my point. The Reds top guys are right up there with the Cards and Pirates. The difference between the Reds and those two teams is, like I said, the bottom of the roster.
There are only two teams who have gotten worse production from the bottom of the roster. One of those teams is the Phillies, and the other is the Braves who were in a similar position to the Reds this off season and chose to rebuild. The Reds were trying to win. And I would suspect that many of the other teams bad performances came from guys who were projected to be much better. The Reds have given significant run to guys like Marquis, Gregg, Boesch, and Schumacher who were projected to be bad.
Also, since my original point was mainly about roster construction it is important to note that 3 of the Reds top 10 players by true talent level, Mesoraco, Cozart, and Bailey are out for the year. The numbers would probably look more lopsided with those guys healthy.
I’m not concerned about the Reds pitching in this era. They still have Bailey, DeSclafani, Lorenzen, Stephenson, Iglesias, Cingrani and anyone else they add at the deadline/winter to compete for the rotation which should be more than enough to stay competitive. They need an infusion of hitters. I don’t know that giving up your best one is a recipe for success. I suppose it depends what Frazier would bring back.
Cueto, Leake and Votto for Norris, Alford and EE (salary back).
The Reds hang up first on that.
Didn’t know there needed to be an argument.
You blow it up this year, and you have a ton more payroll next year to pick up good fliers and bullpen pieces you could turn into more stuff at next years deadline. I think they could turn it around pretty well by 2017 if they played it right.
This is exactly what I think they should be doing. Surround the 2016 team with guys that have upside and AT MOST a year or option year 2017. Pay some bullpen guys, innings eaters, and OFs that could find a groove and hit. Nothing splashy, but speculative adds, and then send them out next year
What is the expectation of the yield for Bruce?
He’s playing decently for the first time in 2 1/2 years. I never thought I’d see it again. It’s a great time to sell high. He’s worth a #3 starter.
JABO comments never fail to be spectacular, do they?
The only problem is that there are never enough of them. But what they lack in quantity, they certainly make up in quality.
And there goes another one!
Frazier goes one way, Soler the other
Haha is Soler even a major leaguer? Or any of their vaunted prospects? Could be a bust factory.
Ok dude you can add in Javier Baez but your pressing me man ur pressing me
That Kris Bryant sure is a bust.
He could be. Looks overmatched quite often and that D is yikes! sometimes. But yea he can sure tattoo it. Russell looks completely overmatched.
Then dangle EE to the Cards for Lynn or a prospect. Smoak at 1B in the 6 -hole is good enough. Combo at DH (including Reyes), Bruce in RF to help Bautista’s arm. …simple no?
Cards would never go for that. Most teams could use a power threat like EE but his value and Lance Lynn’s are not equivalent. Lynn is also 4 years younger and locked into a team friendly contract. Plus, Blue Jays most likely wouldn’t trade big league assets if they want to win now. That wouldn’t help their team, which has a short window to succeed given the age of most of their players.