Ten Questions the Second Half Should Answer

Whoa, that was a rough two days without baseball. But the wait is almost over. (And, in fact, the Royals and White Sox are in the first inning as of press time.) As we grind our nails into a fine paste waiting for the second half to start, here are 10 questions that I’ll be hoping the second half answers. Perhaps you have others. If so, let me know in the comments, but these are mine. Let’s get to it.

1. How many more younglings?

The first half saw the introduction of some really top-shelf talent, with some of those young players immediately vaulting to the top of Dave’s trade-value rankings, including Carlos Correa at #5 after just 32 major-league games. That probably won’t be topped, but the second half hasn’t even started yet, and we already know of one more prospect who is set for his big league debut in Frankie Montas. Montas was ranked 113th by Kiley before the season, and his 3.03 FIP ranks 10th across all of Double-A; his 2.47 ERA, 13th.

It’s not just him, though. Rumors are swirling about both Jon Gray and Aaron Nola making their debuts. They reached 28th and 51st, respectively, on Kiley’s rankings, and have done nothing to sour their stature since. There’s also a decent chance that Daniel Norris will be back in the majors before long, and with Corey Seager holding his own at Triple-A and Jimmy Rollins not holding his own in the majors, the Seager watch may start in earnest very soon.

Oh! And Kyle Schwarber! He’s back! Miguel Montero’s loss to injury is Schwarber’s gain. The first time, Schwarber did nothing to prove that he deserved to be sent back to the minors. There probably won’t be a second time. And he’s not the only top position-player prospect that could be on the horizon. Michael Conforto is raking at Double-A, and Aaron Judge was raking at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A. And maybe if Ian Desmond really continues to spit the bit, Trea Turner will get a crack at a late shot at making the postseason roster. Maybe? Right now, it seems like we’re in a sweet spot where a lot of the game’s top prospects are in the high minors. Jose Berrios, Jose De Leon and Jose Peraza also come to mind. Mark Appel, Luis Severino… these are exciting times.

2. How much will we learn from the StatCast leaderboards?

Five juicy leaderboards. Scanning them, there is so much potentially interesting info. Giancarlo Stanton is first in average hit velocity, which sounds absolutely right. But Jarrod Saltalamacchia is third. That sounds less right. Does that mean this leaderboard is useless? I don’t think so, but I need more time. Perhaps the most intriguing StatCast leaderboard question right now though is whether anyone can break Aroldis Chapman’s ironclad grip on the fastest pitches leaderboard. I’m guessing no.

3. Can anyone run away and hide?

Not one single team had even a five-game lead at the break. Only three teams currently boast a .600 win percentage, and two of them play in the same division. It’s the first time this has happened since 2011, as in the three years in between there was one division with at least a five-game gap between first and second place.

Before Alex Gordon got hurt, you would have said that the Royals were that team, but now that is a little more up in the air. Looking at the projected standings, the Royals are projected to be in the middle of the AL Central pack the rest of the way. This may still leave them at the head of the division, but until Gordon returns, they may have to sweat it out a little.

Looking at the projected standings as a whole, the only division that really looks to generate a chasm between first and second place is the NL West, where the Dodgers and Giants are projected to be separated by nine games. And frankly, I don’t know how much I trust that, as I’ve given up on underestimating the Giants. They always find a way. Something’s probably going to give, but if it doesn’t, we could be in for quite the second half.

4. Are the Astros for real?

The team formerly known as the Colt 45’s played surprisingly well in the first half, but things have faded. After starting the season with a 15-7 record in April, they are since 34-35, including a 3-8 record in July. On the positive side, the rotation looks a lot deeper with Lance McCullers in it. The young right-hander has been the one of — if not the – best — rookie pitchers thus far, and Vincent Velasquez has helped as well. Pair the two rookies with Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh and you have a credible rotation. The question is can they sustain this level for the remainder of 2015? In a couple of weeks, McCullers will have blown past his previous innings max as a professional.

There’s also the matter of the bullpen, which has crashed back from its orbit in June and July after an exemplary April and May. They probably need to upgrade there. And the offense has been unstable, which seems par for the course for an offense that strikes out so much. Here is their non-pitcher wRC+ by month and how that has stacked up:

• April: 104, 9th overall
• May: 98, 16th
• June: 110, 8th
• July: 82, 19th

Sort of all over the place. Correa should help things for sure, but then again, he’s also a rookie, and the league figures to figure him out at some point. Getting Jed Lowrie and George Springer back should help too, but the team may need some external help if they want to lock down the American League West.

5. Are the Yankees back?

Toward the end of last season, people were beginning to wonder if Brian Cashman had worn out his welcome. Now, the Yankees are sitting pretty. They’re leading the division, and compared to the past few years, they’ve been a paragon of health. The AL East is soft, that’s true enough, but the Yankees are taking advantage. The plan in the Hank and Hal years seems to be to just try and keep things around .500 and see if they catch some breaks. The last few years, they didn’t catch many breaks. This year, the division is relatively weak, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have provided much more than could have been expected of them. Michael Pineda is an ace now, Dellin Betances is as valuable as a starter, Nathan Eovaldi gets lots of run support, Andrew Miller is on board, and CC Sabathia… still isn’t walking guys, at least. Brett Gardner and Brian McCann are on their games, and while Chase Headley isn’t hitting and Carlos Beltran isn’t hitting enough, these are minor issues compared to what the Yankees have dealt with the past few years. Add it all up, and this October may have a whole lot more Sinatra.

6. Is Evan Longoria still an elite player?

Before last year, the only season of Evan Longoria’s six-year career in which he had tallied fewer than 5.6 WAR was in 2012, when he missed half the season due to injury. Then he came out and posted a frighteningly mediocre season. He is performing better this season, but while his batting average on balls in play is back above his career average, his power stroke keeps dropping. He has been dealing with a wrist injury for a little bit now, but it’s not keeping him out of the lineup. Furthermore, it’s not like he was knocking the cover off the ball in the early part of the season. Yes, he’s only slugging .383 in July, but his .427 SLG in April and May was still way below his career average of .487.

Currently, Longoria is sporting a 9.6% walk rate. In only one season, 2011, did he post a walk rate demonstrably higher than that (13.9%). In other words, his plate discipline is likely as good as it’s going to get. But if this power profile that he’s demonstrated since the start of 2014 is the Longoria of the future, his days of stardom may be finished.

7. Is the Rockies’ fire sale finally here?

When your big offseason signing is Kyle Kendrick, you’re probably not destined for greatness. The Rockies have been abysmal and probably aren’t going to be that much better for the rest of the season. They’re projected to have the second-worst run differential in the game at the end of the season, which isn’t that much of a stretch since they have the third-worst run differential now. The Rockies have some good young players — Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, DJ LeMahieu, Chad Bettis and Jordan Lyles are all productive players aged 26 or younger. The team also has an impressive crop of talented players in the minors, including the aforementioned Gray. But by the time the team is ready for contention, players like Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon will be on the wrong side of 30 (Tulowitzki is 30 already). In other words, the age gap is probably going to be prohibitive. Perhaps if they’re really lucky, what happened in 2007 — winning with 22-year-old Tulowitzki, 27-year-old Matt Holliday and 33-year-old Todd Helton — could happen again, but that is a longshot, and pinning your hopes to another Rocktober isn’t exactly the wisest strategy. And yet, you get the sense that the Rockies are going to sit this trade deadline out.

8. Is Brett Anderson really going to pitch a full season?

There have been 55 pitchers who have tallied fewer than 100 innings pitched in seasons where they started at least 30 percent of their games played before the age of 27 four or more times. Brett Anderson is one of them, as from ages 23 to 26, he posted 83.1, 35.0, 44.2 and 43.1 innings pitched. Of those 55, few went on to post any 100-inning seasons from age 27 on — just 17. Some of these names you may know — Mike Norris, Rick Reed, Clay Buchholz, Gavin Floyd, Jaret Wright. They didn’t turn out to be superstars, but they did turn out. Anderson has become the 18th this season in Los Angeles, and what’s more, the Dodgers have needed him to. He’s third on the team in innings pitched, and he’s fifth in WAR. Can he keep doing it? It seems like it would be difficult to root against him.

9. Will the league strikeout rate not set an all-time high for the first time in eight years?

It’s no secret that strikeouts have been up at historic levels the past seven seasons. But this season, while the league strikeout percentage is once again over 20% for the second time ever, it is below last season’s mark, by a whopping 0.2 points. That’s not much, but it’s something. Maybe even it’s the start of a trend. Maybe the hitters are making progress. Or maybe Melvin Upton is now a bench warmer and Adam Dunn has retired. The league strikeout percentage actually went up 0.2 points in last season’s second half, from 20.3% to 20.5%, so there’s still time.

10. Is the curveball dying?

It might be! In 2007 and 2008, PITCHf/x’s initial years, curveball usage was over 10%. Then it hovered in the eight and nine’s, peaking at 9.9% in 2012. Since, it has dropped to 9.2%, 8.6% and now 7.6% this season. That 7.6% makes it less popular than every non-novelty pitch PITCHf/x tracks except for the cutter, splitter and sinker. It lags behind the changeup, slider, two- and four-seam fastball. That’s somewhat depressing, because few things are as pleasing to the eye as a snapped off curveball. The Baseball Info Solutions numbers are a bit higher, but in relation to other pitches the curve’s place remains the same. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go watch this curveball video while I wait for the second half to start.