2015 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Although it hasn’t been published here yet, one assumes that Jason Heyward’s projection (when it is available) will be one of the best among Atlanta’s collection of field players. Heyward, of course, won’t be playing for the club in 2015, having recently been traded to St. Louis in exchange for Shelby Miller et al. What that means, immediately, for the Atlantans is a more playing time for Evan Gattis in left field, at which position he made zero appearances in 2014 after starting there 47 times in 2013.

Expected to inherent Gattis’s catching role from 2014 is Christian Bethancourt, who enters just his age-23 season. Despite having recorded just a 54 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR over 117 plate appearances last year in what was effectively his debut (he appeared in a single game in 2013), Bethancourt is expected to produce enough offensively to render himself a league-average player.

Pitchers
Atlanta very possibly hasn’t finished purging its roster of outfielders with expiring contracts: Justin Upton has also been invoked as a potential trade candidate. Barring the unexpected, however, the club likely won’t be altering its starting rotation much. With regard to that rotation, it appears to offer a strong combination of youth and talent, featuring four pitchers of 27 or younger projected to record about a 3.0 WAR or better. As for the fifth spot, logic would appear to suggest that David Hale is the favorite to claim it; ZiPS suggests that Cody Martin is a better option.

With regard to Atlanta’s bullpen, one finds that Craig Kimbrel is projected to post a 48 FIP- — a figure which itself would have been the sixth best among the 330 pitchers to record at least 50 innings in 2014. Not included in the depth-chart image below, but of some interest nonetheless, is right-hander Shae Simmons, whose projected 78 ERA- is the lowest such figure after Kimbrel. He’s expected to be healthy for spring training after missing the last two months of 2014 with shoulder trouble.

Bench/Prospects
The departure of Tommy La Stella via trade to the Chicago Cubs makes it even more likely that second-base prospect Jose Peraza will make his major-league debut before the end of the season. His projected 0.9 WAR in 538 plate appearances is the best figure among Atlanta’s rookie-eligible players who also aren’t Christian Bethancourt. In the meantime, Atlanta have a collection of low-profile options on the 40-man roster, of whom Elmer Reyes (0.6 WAR in 476 PA) is the best option according to ZiPS. Omitted from below due to having been signed so recently but also probably relevant to Atlanta’s second-base hole, Corban Joseph is projected to slash .241/.305/.373 (86 OPS+) and record a 0.3 WAR (with -4 defensive runs at second base) in 349 plate appearances.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlanta Braves, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Freddie Freeman	L	25	1B	669	97	166	36	3	22	91	3	2
Andrelton Simmons	R	25	SS	590	60	141	24	5	9	53	7	6
Justin Upton	R	27	LF	646	94	148	30	3	26	85	12	5
Christian Bethancourt	R	23	C	473	49	118	22	1	10	51	10	4
Evan Gattis	R	28	C	411	46	94	20	1	19	55	1	1
B.J. Upton	R	30	CF	553	67	109	22	4	17	47	20	7
Todd Cunningham	B	26	CF	530	60	122	21	4	5	42	15	6
Jose Peraza	R	21	2B	538	59	131	18	8	3	43	43	14
Emilio Bonifacio	B	30	CF	449	53	106	16	4	3	26	28	8
Cedric Hunter	L	27	LF	432	52	98	24	3	10	49	7	4
Chris Johnson	R	30	3B	577	50	147	28	2	12	68	4	0
Daniel Castro	R	22	SS	491	54	120	21	5	6	46	8	5
Elmer Reyes	R	24	SS	476	47	106	25	4	6	43	4	3
Ernesto Mejia	R	29	1B	549	62	122	24	1	25	68	4	2
Pedro Ciriaco	R	29	2B	363	36	88	16	3	3	27	14	4
Tyler Pastornicky	R	25	2B	359	39	86	12	3	3	27	8	4
Phil Gosselin	R	26	2B	546	58	126	23	4	5	41	6	2
Kyle Wren	L	24	CF	472	49	106	18	6	1	33	30	11
Gerald Laird	R	35	C	151	14	31	7	0	1	11	0	0
Eli Whiteside	R	35	C	232	21	42	10	1	4	19	1	0
Ramiro Pena	B	29	2B	220	18	47	8	1	3	14	1	1
Donnie Murphy	R	32	2B	304	34	59	13	1	10	35	2	2
Mycal Jones	R	28	CF	459	45	88	20	1	4	32	16	8
Sean Kazmar	R	30	3B	306	30	65	16	2	3	26	3	3
Kyle Kubitza	L	24	3B	532	59	98	23	7	9	47	10	10
Ryan Doumit	B	34	LF	335	31	74	16	1	9	40	1	0
Steven Lerud	L	30	C	202	20	35	7	1	2	14	1	0
Joey Terdoslavich	B	26	RF	553	62	125	26	2	13	56	3	3
Zoilo Almonte	B	26	LF	480	52	106	18	2	14	55	8	3
Rich Poythress	R	27	1B	383	42	85	17	1	8	37	2	1
Jose Constanza	L	31	LF	466	49	110	8	3	1	27	18	9
Derrick Mitchell	R	28	RF	289	31	56	12	1	7	27	7	4
Andy Simunic	R	29	RF	237	23	49	5	0	1	13	5	2
Mark Hamilton	L	30	1B	337	37	65	15	0	7	31	0	0
Brandon Boggs	B	32	RF	398	39	73	16	3	6	32	3	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Freddie Freeman	669	11.4%	20.6%	.186	.339	.286	.374	.472	.367
Andrelton Simmons	590	5.8%	10.0%	.112	.274	.258	.302	.370	.292
Justin Upton	646	10.4%	24.8%	.202	.316	.261	.344	.463	.353
Christian Bethancourt	473	3.0%	19.9%	.120	.309	.263	.287	.383	.295
Evan Gattis	411	5.4%	22.1%	.208	.276	.247	.299	.455	.326
B.J. Upton	553	9.0%	28.8%	.164	.286	.221	.293	.385	.299
Todd Cunningham	530	5.5%	16.6%	.091	.298	.253	.305	.344	.287
Jose Peraza	538	3.5%	15.1%	.085	.300	.259	.289	.344	.283
Emilio Bonifacio	449	6.7%	19.6%	.080	.321	.258	.309	.338	.291
Cedric Hunter	432	7.2%	15.0%	.153	.274	.250	.309	.403	.311
Chris Johnson	577	4.5%	23.7%	.125	.339	.270	.306	.395	.307
Daniel Castro	491	2.9%	12.8%	.106	.288	.259	.281	.365	.278
Elmer Reyes	476	2.5%	23.7%	.113	.300	.237	.267	.350	.270
Ernesto Mejia	549	6.2%	34.4%	.200	.329	.241	.295	.441	.323
Pedro Ciriaco	363	2.5%	16.5%	.090	.298	.254	.276	.344	.273
Tyler Pastornicky	359	5.8%	15.6%	.081	.304	.261	.305	.342	.286
Phil Gosselin	546	4.2%	19.2%	.091	.302	.248	.286	.339	.274
Kyle Wren	472	5.3%	18.2%	.076	.299	.244	.286	.320	.271
Gerald Laird	151	7.9%	16.6%	.073	.270	.228	.293	.301	.264
Eli Whiteside	232	5.2%	26.7%	.112	.252	.195	.246	.307	.246
Ramiro Pena	220	6.8%	19.5%	.095	.284	.235	.290	.330	.271
Donnie Murphy	304	6.3%	27.6%	.163	.266	.215	.277	.378	.287
Mycal Jones	459	6.3%	23.5%	.082	.275	.212	.272	.294	.254
Sean Kazmar	306	4.6%	15.7%	.102	.263	.229	.267	.331	.261
Kyle Kubitza	532	9.8%	35.7%	.136	.324	.208	.292	.344	.279
Ryan Doumit	335	6.9%	20.3%	.147	.279	.241	.296	.388	.299
Steven Lerud	202	8.9%	31.2%	.084	.292	.197	.285	.281	.257
Joey Terdoslavich	553	6.9%	24.4%	.135	.307	.245	.298	.380	.298
Zoilo Almonte	480	5.4%	23.8%	.143	.284	.236	.279	.379	.291
Rich Poythress	383	7.3%	18.0%	.123	.279	.241	.300	.364	.296
Jose Constanza	466	5.4%	14.4%	.039	.298	.255	.296	.294	.262
Derrick Mitchell	289	7.3%	26.3%	.133	.269	.214	.274	.347	.274
Andy Simunic	237	6.3%	22.8%	.037	.293	.226	.277	.263	.246
Mark Hamilton	337	9.8%	29.7%	.121	.297	.217	.297	.338	.285
Brandon Boggs	398	8.0%	30.2%	.112	.286	.204	.275	.316	.263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Freddie Freeman	669	6.7	131	-1	3.5	Kent Hrbek
Andrelton Simmons	590	4.0	84	18	3.4	Jack Wilson
Justin Upton	646	5.9	120	-1	2.9	Derrek Lee
Christian Bethancourt	473	4.1	82	3	2.0	Jorge Pedre
Evan Gattis	411	4.9	104	-6	1.9	Hector Villanueva
B.J. Upton	553	4.0	85	-2	1.0	Ruben Rivera
Todd Cunningham	530	3.9	78	2	1.0	Skip Schumaker
Jose Peraza	538	3.9	73	3	0.9	Tony Abreu
Emilio Bonifacio	449	4.1	78	0	0.8	Tony Scott
Cedric Hunter	432	4.5	94	1	0.7	Dan Masteller
Chris Johnson	577	4.6	91	-9	0.7	Bobby Knoop
Daniel Castro	491	3.7	76	-1	0.6	Gary DiSarcina
Elmer Reyes	476	3.3	68	3	0.6	Angel Salazar
Ernesto Mejia	549	4.6	99	-2	0.4	Chris Cron
Pedro Ciriaco	363	3.6	69	2	0.2	Casey Smith
Tyler Pastornicky	359	3.8	78	-2	0.2	Ronny Cedeno
Phil Gosselin	546	3.5	71	1	0.2	Juan Melo
Kyle Wren	472	3.5	67	0	0.0	Javon Moran
Gerald Laird	151	3.1	64	-2	0.0	Rick Cerone
Eli Whiteside	232	2.6	51	1	0.0	Frank Charles
Ramiro Pena	220	3.3	70	0	0.0	Keith Kessinger
Donnie Murphy	304	3.5	78	-4	-0.1	Dave Matranga
Mycal Jones	459	2.7	56	5	-0.1	Juan Piniella
Sean Kazmar	306	3.0	64	1	-0.2	Stu Cole
Kyle Kubitza	532	3.2	74	-4	-0.2	Dallas McPherson
Ryan Doumit	335	4.1	86	-4	-0.3	Mark Smith
Steven Lerud	202	2.8	57	-4	-0.3	Jayhawk Owens
Joey Terdoslavich	553	4.0	85	-4	-0.4	Guillermo Velasquez
Zoilo Almonte	480	3.8	79	-3	-0.5	Matthew Cepicky
Rich Poythress	383	3.9	82	-2	-0.6	Jim Deschaine
Jose Constanza	466	3.2	63	5	-0.7	Jason Tyner
Derrick Mitchell	289	3.2	70	-2	-0.7	Dave Elliott
Andy Simunic	237	2.6	50	0	-0.9	Keith Smith
Mark Hamilton	337	3.5	74	-5	-1.1	Todd Mensik
Brandon Boggs	398	2.9	62	-2	-1.2	Kevin Koslofski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Julio Teheran	R	24	32	32	204.0	181	48	21	183	78	73
Alex Wood	L	24	40	25	165.3	154	50	13	148	63	59
Shelby Miller	R	24	30	30	172.0	157	63	21	151	73	68
Mike Minor	L	27	30	30	178.3	153	51	23	160	78	73
Kris Medlen	R	29	23	22	142.3	109	34	14	142	60	56
Ervin Santana	R	32	28	28	175.7	145	54	20	167	81	76
Craig Kimbrel	R	27	66	0	63.3	101	22	4	37	12	11
Aaron Harang	R	37	25	25	149.7	108	54	15	152	74	69
Cody Martin	R	25	26	22	130.0	119	57	15	124	64	60
Gavin Floyd	R	32	15	15	86.7	71	28	10	84	41	38
Aaron Northcraft	R	25	25	25	133.0	103	59	12	133	67	63
Williams Perez	R	24	25	24	123.3	83	42	13	127	63	59
Shae Simmons	R	24	52	0	50.0	57	23	3	39	17	16
J.R. Graham	R	25	25	20	88.3	55	30	7	92	44	41
Chasen Shreve	L	24	58	0	70.0	73	25	6	61	28	26
Jason Hursh	R	23	22	21	104.0	58	35	10	111	55	51
Gus Schlosser	R	26	31	20	122.3	81	50	11	126	64	60
David D. Carpenter	R	29	61	0	66.7	67	21	6	60	27	25
Brandon Beachy	R	28	11	11	58.0	45	25	7	54	29	27
Yean Carlos Gil	L	24	22	18	97.3	62	34	9	103	51	48
Anthony Varvaro	R	30	60	0	59.3	47	18	5	55	25	23
James Russell	L	29	70	0	57.0	45	19	5	52	25	23
David Bromberg	R	27	15	9	53.0	47	25	6	51	28	26
Juan Jaime	R	27	49	0	49.7	65	40	4	38	22	21
Chien-Ming Wang	R	35	22	21	124.0	52	40	11	142	71	66
Brandon Cunniff	R	26	35	0	52.7	51	27	5	47	25	23
Lucas Sims	R	21	27	23	130.7	93	63	16	133	75	70
Ian Thomas	L	28	32	6	54.0	54	26	8	51	29	27
David Hale	R	27	33	15	102.7	61	50	11	109	58	54
Arodys Vizcaino	R	24	39	4	53.0	45	25	6	52	28	26
Luis Avilan	L	25	74	0	61.3	41	30	5	59	30	28
Donnie Veal	L	30	53	0	56.7	49	32	5	53	28	26
Mauricio Cabrera	R	21	24	13	69.3	50	52	6	69	41	38
Kanekoa Texeira	R	29	19	6	52.3	30	27	6	55	31	29
Zach Stewart	R	28	25	18	116.7	62	37	16	133	71	66
Ryan Buchter	L	28	49	0	56.3	63	48	6	48	31	29
Jorge Reyes	R	27	48	0	73.0	66	39	9	69	40	37
Jake Brigham	R	27	24	18	107.7	74	52	16	115	66	62
Tyrell Jenkins	R	22	14	14	67.3	38	32	10	75	44	41
Pedro Beato	R	28	45	0	53.3	43	26	8	54	31	29
Mitch Atkins	R	29	23	19	111.3	75	41	19	123	70	65
Greg Smith	L	31	25	22	131.3	66	38	20	151	82	77
Sugar Ray Marimon	R	26	24	22	116.3	68	53	21	131	79	74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Julio Teheran	204.0	843	21.5%	5.7%	.276	3.22	3.37	87	91
Alex Wood	165.3	694	22.2%	7.2%	.287	3.21	3.21	86	86
Shelby Miller	172.0	730	21.5%	8.6%	.267	3.56	3.93	96	106
Mike Minor	178.3	746	20.5%	6.8%	.266	3.68	3.85	99	104
Kris Medlen	142.3	603	18.1%	5.6%	.289	3.54	3.58	95	96
Ervin Santana	175.7	748	19.4%	7.2%	.280	3.89	3.84	105	103
Craig Kimbrel	63.3	249	40.6%	8.8%	.275	1.56	1.77	42	48
Aaron Harang	149.7	655	16.5%	8.2%	.288	4.15	3.97	112	107
Cody Martin	130.0	571	20.8%	10.0%	.292	4.15	4.20	112	113
Gavin Floyd	86.7	372	19.1%	7.5%	.287	3.95	4.02	106	108
Aaron Northcraft	133.0	591	17.4%	10.0%	.296	4.26	4.19	115	113
Williams Perez	123.3	539	15.4%	7.8%	.289	4.31	4.27	116	115
Shae Simmons	50.0	212	26.9%	10.8%	.283	2.88	2.99	78	81
J.R. Graham	88.3	387	14.2%	7.8%	.293	4.18	4.03	113	108
Chasen Shreve	70.0	296	24.7%	8.4%	.291	3.34	3.20	90	86
Jason Hursh	104.0	458	12.7%	7.6%	.289	4.41	4.37	119	118
Gus Schlosser	122.3	543	14.9%	9.2%	.293	4.41	4.30	119	116
David D. Carpenter	66.7	281	23.8%	7.5%	.293	3.37	3.25	91	87
Brandon Beachy	58.0	253	17.8%	9.9%	.269	4.19	4.41	113	119
Yean Carlos Gil	97.3	429	14.5%	7.9%	.296	4.44	4.21	120	114
Anthony Varvaro	59.3	251	18.7%	7.2%	.276	3.49	3.37	94	91
James Russell	57.0	242	18.6%	7.9%	.273	3.63	3.40	98	92
David Bromberg	53.0	235	20.0%	10.6%	.292	4.42	4.34	119	117
Juan Jaime	49.7	227	28.6%	17.6%	.295	3.81	4.02	103	108
Chien-Ming Wang	124.0	554	9.4%	7.2%	.295	4.79	4.48	129	121
Brandon Cunniff	52.7	232	22.0%	11.6%	.287	3.93	3.89	106	105
Lucas Sims	130.7	588	15.8%	10.7%	.287	4.82	4.85	130	131
Ian Thomas	54.0	239	22.6%	10.9%	.291	4.50	4.53	121	122
David Hale	102.7	467	13.1%	10.7%	.289	4.73	4.75	127	128
Arodys Vizcaino	53.0	236	19.1%	10.6%	.293	4.42	4.35	119	117
Luis Avilan	61.3	273	15.0%	11.0%	.280	4.11	4.19	111	113
Donnie Veal	56.7	255	19.2%	12.5%	.289	4.13	4.22	111	114
Mauricio Cabrera	69.3	329	15.2%	15.8%	.292	4.93	5.20	133	140
Kanekoa Texeira	52.3	239	12.6%	11.3%	.283	4.99	5.06	134	136
Zach Stewart	116.7	520	11.9%	7.1%	.293	5.09	4.88	137	131
Ryan Buchter	56.3	265	23.8%	18.1%	.292	4.63	4.86	125	131
Jorge Reyes	73.0	327	20.2%	11.9%	.287	4.56	4.49	123	121
Jake Brigham	107.7	490	15.1%	10.6%	.289	5.18	5.20	140	140
Tyrell Jenkins	67.3	309	12.3%	10.4%	.289	5.48	5.46	148	147
Pedro Beato	53.3	240	17.9%	10.8%	.288	4.89	4.97	132	134
Mitch Atkins	111.3	498	15.1%	8.2%	.292	5.25	5.22	141	141
Greg Smith	131.3	583	11.3%	6.5%	.291	5.28	5.06	142	136
Sugar Ray Marimon	116.3	533	12.8%	9.9%	.287	5.72	5.78	154	156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Julio Teheran	204.0	7.99	2.12	0.93	118	4.3	Kyle Lohse
Alex Wood	165.3	8.38	2.72	0.71	118	3.4	Dave LaPoint
Shelby Miller	172.0	8.22	3.30	1.10	107	2.9	Jimmy Haynes
Mike Minor	178.3	7.72	2.57	1.16	103	2.7	Lance Painter
Kris Medlen	142.3	6.89	2.15	0.89	107	2.4	Mike Morgan
Ervin Santana	175.7	7.43	2.77	1.02	98	2.2	Ron Darling
Craig Kimbrel	63.3	14.36	3.13	0.57	243	2.0	Scott Williamson
Aaron Harang	149.7	6.49	3.25	0.90	92	1.4	Rick Sutcliffe
Cody Martin	130.0	8.24	3.95	1.04	92	1.1	Bill Melvin
Gavin Floyd	86.7	7.37	2.91	1.04	96	1.0	Scott Kamieniecki
Aaron Northcraft	133.0	6.97	3.99	0.81	89	1.0	Jeff Fulchino
Williams Perez	123.3	6.06	3.07	0.95	88	0.9	Jake Joseph
Shae Simmons	50.0	10.26	4.14	0.54	132	0.8	Ryan Bukvich
J.R. Graham	88.3	5.61	3.06	0.71	91	0.7	Joe Coleman
Chasen Shreve	70.0	9.39	3.21	0.77	114	0.6	Felix Heredia
Jason Hursh	104.0	5.02	3.03	0.87	86	0.6	Preston Larrison
Gus Schlosser	122.3	5.96	3.68	0.81	86	0.6	Tim Byron
David D. Carpenter	66.7	9.04	2.83	0.81	113	0.6	Brian Falkenborg
Brandon Beachy	58.0	6.98	3.88	1.09	91	0.5	Bryan Kelly
Yean Carlos Gil	97.3	5.73	3.14	0.83	86	0.5	Ryan Spille
Anthony Varvaro	59.3	7.13	2.73	0.76	109	0.4	Todd Erdos
James Russell	57.0	7.11	3.00	0.79	105	0.3	Javier Lopez
David Bromberg	53.0	7.98	4.25	1.02	86	0.2	Jamie Brewington
Juan Jaime	49.7	11.77	7.24	0.72	100	0.1	Dwayne Henry
Chien-Ming Wang	124.0	3.77	2.90	0.80	79	0.1	Aaron Sele
Brandon Cunniff	52.7	8.71	4.61	0.85	97	0.1	Bob Gibson
Lucas Sims	130.7	6.40	4.34	1.10	79	0.0	Ryan Glynn
Ian Thomas	54.0	9.00	4.33	1.33	84	0.0	Billy Brewer
David Hale	102.7	5.35	4.38	0.96	80	0.0	Jose Segura
Arodys Vizcaino	53.0	7.64	4.25	1.02	86	0.0	Brandon Puffer
Luis Avilan	61.3	6.02	4.40	0.73	93	-0.1	Anthony Rawson
Donnie Veal	56.7	7.78	5.08	0.79	92	-0.1	Kevin Tolar
Mauricio Cabrera	69.3	6.49	6.75	0.78	77	-0.2	Blue Moon Odom
Kanekoa Texeira	52.3	5.16	4.65	1.03	76	-0.2	Jarod Juelsgaard
Zach Stewart	116.7	4.78	2.85	1.23	75	-0.4	Jim Magrane
Ryan Buchter	56.3	10.07	7.67	0.96	82	-0.4	Tim Fortugno
Jorge Reyes	73.0	8.14	4.81	1.11	83	-0.5	Adalberto Mendez
Jake Brigham	107.7	6.18	4.35	1.34	73	-0.5	Mike Heathcott
Tyrell Jenkins	67.3	5.08	4.28	1.34	69	-0.5	Chris Clemons
Pedro Beato	53.3	7.26	4.39	1.35	78	-0.6	Brad Tweedlie
Mitch Atkins	111.3	6.06	3.32	1.54	72	-0.6	Mike Heathcott
Greg Smith	131.3	4.52	2.60	1.37	72	-0.7	Andrew Lorraine
Sugar Ray Marimon	116.3	5.26	4.10	1.63	66	-1.3	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.