2015 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli January 30, 2015 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington. Batters Manny Machado returned in May after completing rehab on his horribly ruptured left-knee ligament and the surgery to repair it. His slash stats were poor during that first month back (.220/.271/.284 in 119 PA), but by the beginning of August he possessed roughly the same park-adjusted offensive mark he’d recorded the season before (111 wRC+, as opposed to 102 wRC+ in 2013). His 2014 campaign ended in August when we underwent surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in his other knee. ZiPS doesn’t specifically “know” about the injuries — just the playing time lost to them. In any case, Machado is expected to replicate his slightly above-average batting line once again — with a little bit more in the way of isolated power than either of the past two seasons. The breakout age-31 season isn’t a particularly common occurrence in baseball, but that’s what Steve Pearce produced in 2014, recording a 161 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR in 383 plate appearances. Characteristically, ZiPS is conservative. After hitting homers at a rate of 33 per 600 plate appearances, Pearce is projected for 26 every 600 plate appearances in 2015 — plus also a markedly more average defensive figure. Pitchers Six Baltimore pitchers accounted for 161 of the club’s 162 starts in 2014. All six of those pitchers return in 2015 and five of them appear in the depth-chart image below. Moreover, fewer than 1.5 wins separates the nominal “ace” of the staff (Chris Tillman) from the likely No. 5 starter (Miguel Gonzalez). There is, in short, considerable parity within the rotation. Not featured in the depth below is Ubaldo Jimenez. Signed to a four-year, $50 million deal last offseason, Jimenez pitched poorly, producing both run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers about 20% worse than league average — much of that due to a career-worst 13.9% walk rate, the highest such figure among starters who recorded 50-plus innings. ZiPS calls for a return to something approximating league average, however, rendering him quite similar in that way to all five pitchers currently occupying a place in the rotation. Bench/Prospects Omitted from the depth chart below is David Lough (418 PA, 0.4 WAR), who’s likely to receive some playing time, and also Ryan Flaherty (330 PA, 0.7 WAR), who’s recorded more than 250 plate appearances each of the last two seasons. Among rookie-eligible players, outfielder Dariel Alvarez (408 PA, 1.2 WAR) receives the most encouraging projections for 2015. Meanwhile, pitching prospects Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies, Hunter Harvey, and Mike Wright are all projected to produce something between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Manny Machado R 22 3B 547 64 145 31 2 16 54 5 3 Adam Jones R 29 CF 667 89 175 32 2 29 96 11 3 J.J. Hardy R 32 SS 599 63 143 26 0 15 62 0 0 Matt Wieters B 29 C 385 43 88 18 0 15 55 1 0 Chris Davis L 29 1B 562 76 119 23 0 34 96 3 2 Steve Pearce R 32 1B 297 35 68 16 0 13 40 3 1 Jonathan Schoop R 23 2B 468 55 105 19 0 19 53 2 1 Alejandro De Aza L 31 LF 593 71 141 27 6 11 52 19 11 Caleb Joseph R 29 C 441 41 96 18 1 12 48 2 1 Dariel Alvarez R 26 CF 408 45 105 20 2 10 44 4 4 J.P. Arencibia R 29 C 356 37 72 15 0 16 56 0 1 Ryan Lavarnway R 27 C 383 39 84 16 0 9 38 0 0 Rey Navarro B 25 SS 553 59 127 24 3 9 54 5 7 Ryan Flaherty L 28 2B 330 35 69 14 1 10 39 2 1 Mike Ohlman R 24 C 413 40 90 20 2 4 34 2 0 Steve Clevenger L 29 C 312 29 71 15 1 3 27 1 0 David Lough L 29 LF 418 49 96 15 5 7 37 11 5 Alex Hassan R 27 RF 422 45 93 19 1 7 38 2 2 Travis Snider L 27 RF 395 46 86 16 1 14 47 5 3 David Adams R 28 2B 398 39 84 17 2 8 37 2 1 Chris Parmelee L 27 1B 491 50 107 22 1 16 56 1 2 Michael Almanzar R 24 3B 426 42 94 18 1 9 42 6 2 Jimmy Paredes B 26 3B 531 60 120 23 4 11 56 21 7 Julio Borbon L 29 CF 431 43 99 11 3 5 30 18 6 Delmon Young R 29 LF 418 40 103 17 1 12 50 1 0 Alexi Casilla B 30 2B 241 26 53 10 1 1 19 11 2 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. B 26 2B 420 39 100 14 3 2 29 7 4 Chance Sisco L 20 C 501 50 113 21 2 8 46 1 2 Christian Walker R 24 1B 569 62 129 22 1 19 63 2 2 Mike Yastrzemski L 24 RF 485 52 104 21 6 12 50 9 7 Paul Janish R 32 SS 344 28 67 14 1 2 22 1 2 Michael Burgess L 26 LF 406 40 80 20 1 11 44 2 2 Osvaldo Martinez R 27 SS 381 35 80 13 2 3 28 5 2 Sharlon Schoop R 28 SS 259 23 48 9 0 4 20 1 2 Matt Tuiasosopo R 29 LF 415 45 77 12 0 10 43 2 1 Derrik Gibson R 25 SS 432 39 85 12 2 2 26 11 6 Chris Marrero R 26 1B 420 43 91 17 2 11 46 0 0 Adrian Marin R 21 SS 491 40 103 21 1 7 40 11 6 Drew Dosch L 23 3B 590 59 130 18 3 7 44 4 4 Francisco Peguero R 27 RF 394 42 92 14 3 5 37 4 1 Quincy Latimore R 26 LF 394 38 72 13 1 10 37 7 5 Henry Urrutia L 28 LF 329 28 79 13 2 3 27 1 1 Ronald Bermudez R 27 RF 323 28 73 13 1 2 23 2 3 Chih-Hsien Chiang L 27 RF 454 42 99 22 2 7 40 1 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Manny Machado 547 4.9% 15.9% .163 .315 .285 .323 .448 .334 Adam Jones 667 3.6% 19.0% .196 .307 .279 .315 .475 .345 J.J. Hardy 599 5.3% 15.2% .128 .281 .256 .297 .384 .298 Matt Wieters 385 8.3% 17.9% .181 .272 .254 .314 .435 .327 Chris Davis 562 10.0% 31.3% .254 .295 .241 .326 .495 .348 Steve Pearce 297 10.1% 20.5% .211 .293 .262 .345 .473 .355 Jonathan Schoop 468 3.4% 22.4% .172 .270 .238 .275 .410 .301 Alejandro De Aza 593 6.9% 19.9% .134 .316 .262 .320 .396 .313 Caleb Joseph 441 5.2% 21.8% .138 .276 .235 .279 .373 .287 Dariel Alvarez 408 2.9% 13.7% .139 .290 .270 .290 .409 .303 J.P. Arencibia 356 4.8% 28.4% .190 .258 .217 .264 .407 .293 Ryan Lavarnway 383 8.1% 20.1% .125 .286 .243 .311 .368 .303 Rey Navarro 553 4.5% 14.5% .110 .274 .247 .283 .357 .278 Ryan Flaherty 330 6.4% 23.9% .153 .276 .228 .287 .381 .292 Mike Ohlman 413 7.5% 25.7% .096 .320 .239 .299 .335 .285 Steve Clevenger 312 7.1% 15.1% .091 .285 .247 .301 .338 .285 David Lough 418 4.5% 14.8% .120 .280 .251 .290 .371 .286 Alex Hassan 422 10.0% 23.9% .112 .321 .249 .329 .361 .310 Travis Snider 395 8.6% 24.8% .168 .293 .242 .310 .410 .315 David Adams 398 6.0% 21.4% .123 .278 .231 .290 .354 .288 Chris Parmelee 491 8.6% 22.4% .163 .285 .243 .312 .406 .315 Michael Almanzar 426 4.9% 24.2% .119 .297 .238 .286 .357 .288 Jimmy Paredes 531 3.8% 25.8% .126 .302 .237 .266 .363 .279 Julio Borbon 431 5.6% 16.2% .080 .287 .248 .290 .328 .278 Delmon Young 418 4.1% 20.1% .140 .302 .261 .297 .401 .309 Alexi Casilla 241 5.4% 15.4% .067 .278 .238 .280 .305 .267 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 4.0% 13.6% .066 .292 .256 .289 .322 .268 Chance Sisco 501 5.8% 22.6% .105 .303 .243 .293 .348 .284 Christian Walker 569 6.2% 25.7% .155 .302 .246 .297 .401 .307 Mike Yastrzemski 485 5.2% 25.2% .153 .288 .231 .279 .384 .289 Paul Janish 344 5.5% 18.9% .069 .257 .211 .260 .280 .242 Michael Burgess 406 6.9% 27.6% .148 .273 .214 .271 .362 .279 Osvaldo Martinez 381 4.7% 17.6% .074 .268 .225 .265 .299 .250 Sharlon Schoop 259 6.2% 26.3% .088 .262 .201 .253 .289 .241 Matt Tuiasosopo 415 10.1% 29.2% .115 .283 .210 .297 .325 .284 Derrik Gibson 432 7.4% 23.6% .056 .288 .219 .283 .275 .253 Chris Marrero 420 6.4% 22.4% .140 .281 .235 .288 .375 .295 Adrian Marin 491 3.3% 27.3% .094 .293 .221 .250 .315 .250 Drew Dosch 590 5.3% 21.5% .081 .293 .235 .280 .316 .266 Francisco Peguero 394 2.8% 22.1% .093 .302 .243 .267 .336 .266 Quincy Latimore 394 6.3% 32.5% .125 .277 .201 .258 .326 .257 Henry Urrutia 329 3.3% 23.1% .082 .318 .250 .274 .332 .268 Ronald Bermudez 323 3.1% 21.4% .069 .298 .239 .265 .308 .251 Chih-Hsien Chiang 454 4.0% 21.6% .110 .280 .230 .263 .340 .262 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Manny Machado 547 5.4 110 13 4.2 Carlos Baerga Adam Jones 667 5.7 114 -1 4.0 Vernon Wells J.J. Hardy 599 4.1 86 9 2.7 Jack Wilson Matt Wieters 385 5.0 104 1 2.5 Bill Lindsey Chris Davis 562 5.7 122 1 2.2 Carlos Pena Steve Pearce 297 6.0 123 2 1.5 Danny Litwhiler Jonathan Schoop 468 4.0 86 4 1.4 Tim Teufel Alejandro De Aza 593 4.6 96 4 1.3 Milt Thompson Caleb Joseph 441 3.7 78 1 1.3 Brandon Marsters Dariel Alvarez 408 4.3 90 3 1.2 John Castellano J.P. Arencibia 356 3.6 82 -2 0.9 Dave Duncan Ryan Lavarnway 383 4.1 87 -7 0.8 Bill McGuire Rey Navarro 553 3.4 75 0 0.7 Pete Rose Jr. Ryan Flaherty 330 3.8 82 1 0.7 Dave Baker Mike Ohlman 413 3.6 75 -6 0.5 Ray Corbett Steve Clevenger 312 3.7 76 -4 0.5 Brad Gulden David Lough 418 3.9 81 5 0.4 Chris Singleton Alex Hassan 422 4.2 91 -1 0.4 Bryan Byrne Travis Snider 395 4.5 97 -3 0.4 Brian Lesher David Adams 398 3.6 77 -1 0.3 Mike Tyson Chris Parmelee 491 4.4 96 0 0.3 Larry Broadway Michael Almanzar 426 3.7 76 -2 0.2 Tommy Whiteman Jimmy Paredes 531 3.6 71 -1 0.1 Shawon Dunston Julio Borbon 431 3.6 70 0 0.1 Terry Blocker Delmon Young 418 4.4 90 -3 0.1 Nicholas Stavinoha Alexi Casilla 241 3.4 62 0 -0.1 Jesse Garcia Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 3.4 69 0 -0.2 Francisco Matos Chance Sisco 501 3.6 76 -13 -0.2 Marty Pevey Christian Walker 569 4.2 90 -2 -0.2 Walter Young Mike Yastrzemski 485 3.7 81 0 -0.3 Tyler Colvin Paul Janish 344 2.4 49 1 -0.5 Gary Green Michael Burgess 406 3.3 73 0 -0.6 Joe Pomierski Osvaldo Martinez 381 2.8 55 -2 -0.6 Milko Jaramillo Sharlon Schoop 259 2.3 49 -1 -0.6 Lou Benbow Matt Tuiasosopo 415 3.3 72 -1 -0.6 Kurt Airoso Derrik Gibson 432 2.7 55 -4 -0.8 Jamie Athas Chris Marrero 420 3.8 81 -3 -0.8 Henry Blanco Adrian Marin 491 2.7 55 -3 -0.9 Crucito Lara Drew Dosch 590 3.1 64 -4 -0.9 Marco Pernalete Francisco Peguero 394 3.3 65 1 -0.9 Victor Mata Quincy Latimore 394 2.8 60 2 -1.0 Aaron Royster Henry Urrutia 329 3.2 66 -3 -1.1 Jeff Schulz Ronald Bermudez 323 2.8 58 0 -1.2 Maikel Jova Chih-Hsien Chiang 454 3.0 65 -2 -1.6 Greg Monda *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Chris Tillman R 27 31 31 184.3 145 62 24 174 88 82 Wei-Yin Chen L 29 28 28 167.0 127 40 22 170 81 76 Kevin Gausman R 24 31 31 153.0 124 53 17 151 75 70 Bud Norris R 30 28 27 160.3 130 56 20 160 80 75 Ubaldo Jimenez R 31 28 27 150.3 145 76 18 137 75 70 Miguel Gonzalez R 31 28 24 147.3 104 47 24 148 77 72 Darren O’Day R 32 64 0 60.7 63 16 7 49 21 20 Zach Britton L 27 71 0 72.3 61 26 6 62 28 26 Hunter Harvey R 20 19 19 88.3 78 39 11 85 45 42 Tommy Hunter R 28 64 0 71.7 58 14 8 66 29 27 Mike Wright R 25 25 25 137.3 85 36 18 150 76 71 T.J. McFarland L 26 35 7 86.7 52 29 7 93 44 41 Dylan Bundy R 22 13 13 68.3 50 29 8 69 36 34 Brad Brach R 29 64 0 79.3 82 31 11 69 35 33 Logan Verrett R 25 24 24 140.3 101 30 24 151 80 75 Zach Davies R 22 23 22 119.0 86 40 17 126 67 63 Brian Matusz L 28 65 0 52.0 52 17 6 47 22 21 Chris Jones L 26 37 7 91.3 55 37 8 96 48 45 Wesley Wright L 30 65 0 50.7 45 18 5 48 22 21 Oliver Drake R 28 35 0 40.0 40 16 4 36 17 16 Ryan Webb R 29 63 0 66.3 47 20 6 67 31 29 Johan Santana L 35 9 9 46.3 38 16 6 47 25 23 Robert Coello R 30 36 0 44.7 46 27 5 40 24 22 Eddie Gamboa R 30 21 18 104.7 70 47 15 112 64 60 Ramon Ramirez R 33 34 0 39.7 33 20 4 38 21 20 Dane de la Rosa R 32 55 0 50.0 41 25 6 48 27 25 Jason Garcia R 22 13 5 47.7 35 28 8 50 31 29 Brock Huntzinger R 26 47 1 72.0 54 29 10 74 41 38 Pat McCoy L 26 46 0 57.0 39 21 8 61 33 31 Kelvin de la Cruz L 26 45 0 62.0 56 35 9 61 36 34 Tim Berry L 24 23 23 125.7 79 49 21 141 81 76 Terry Doyle R 29 27 15 101.3 63 45 17 114 67 63 Joe Saunders L 34 27 20 121.7 70 41 21 144 80 75 Branden Kline R 23 19 19 98.3 56 39 17 114 67 63 Tyler Wilson R 25 32 25 154.0 107 52 30 173 104 97 Steve Johnson R 27 22 16 69.0 58 46 16 74 54 50 Josh Stinson R 27 31 18 114.3 67 65 22 130 85 79 Parker Bridwell R 23 25 25 127.0 90 81 24 141 95 89 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Chris Tillman 184.3 789 18.4% 7.9% .271 4.00 4.27 100 107 Wei-Yin Chen 167.0 711 17.9% 5.6% .285 4.10 4.04 102 101 Kevin Gausman 153.0 663 18.7% 8.0% .288 4.12 4.01 103 100 Bud Norris 160.3 697 18.7% 8.0% .290 4.21 4.27 105 107 Ubaldo Jimenez 150.3 664 21.8% 11.4% .282 4.19 4.30 105 107 Miguel Gonzalez 147.3 637 16.3% 7.4% .272 4.40 4.84 110 121 Darren O’Day 60.7 247 25.5% 6.5% .271 2.97 3.50 74 87 Zach Britton 72.3 305 20.0% 8.5% .267 3.24 3.60 81 90 Hunter Harvey 88.3 389 20.1% 10.0% .290 4.28 4.47 107 112 Tommy Hunter 71.7 295 19.7% 4.7% .272 3.39 3.51 85 88 Mike Wright 137.3 598 14.2% 6.0% .292 4.65 4.48 116 112 T.J. McFarland 86.7 382 13.6% 7.6% .296 4.26 4.02 106 100 Dylan Bundy 68.3 303 16.5% 9.6% .289 4.48 4.64 112 116 Brad Brach 79.3 338 24.3% 9.2% .274 3.74 3.92 93 98 Logan Verrett 140.3 602 16.8% 5.0% .289 4.81 4.67 120 116 Zach Davies 119.0 523 16.4% 7.6% .292 4.76 4.66 119 116 Brian Matusz 52.0 220 23.6% 7.7% .287 3.63 3.52 91 88 Chris Jones 91.3 407 13.5% 9.1% .291 4.43 4.34 111 108 Wesley Wright 50.7 218 20.6% 8.3% .292 3.73 3.72 93 93 Oliver Drake 40.0 172 23.3% 9.3% .294 3.60 3.82 90 95 Ryan Webb 66.3 286 16.4% 7.0% .289 3.93 3.67 98 91 Johan Santana 46.3 202 18.8% 7.9% .289 4.47 4.17 112 104 Robert Coello 44.7 201 22.9% 13.4% .291 4.43 4.50 111 112 Eddie Gamboa 104.7 473 14.8% 9.9% .289 5.16 5.11 129 127 Ramon Ramirez 39.7 177 18.6% 11.3% .285 4.54 4.25 113 106 Dane de la Rosa 50.0 223 18.4% 11.2% .280 4.50 4.51 112 113 Jason Garcia 47.7 221 15.8% 12.7% .286 5.48 5.75 137 144 Brock Huntzinger 72.0 319 16.9% 9.1% .288 4.75 4.73 118 118 Pat McCoy 57.0 253 15.4% 8.3% .290 4.89 4.65 122 116 Kelvin de la Cruz 62.0 282 19.9% 12.4% .292 4.94 5.01 123 125 Tim Berry 125.7 567 13.9% 8.6% .292 5.44 5.32 136 133 Terry Doyle 101.3 463 13.6% 9.7% .292 5.60 5.54 140 138 Joe Saunders 121.7 550 12.7% 7.5% .297 5.55 5.22 138 130 Branden Kline 98.3 448 12.5% 8.7% .294 5.77 5.57 144 139 Tyler Wilson 154.0 687 15.6% 7.6% .292 5.67 5.42 141 135 Steve Johnson 69.0 327 17.7% 14.1% .284 6.52 6.51 163 162 Josh Stinson 114.3 538 12.5% 12.1% .287 6.22 6.34 155 158 Parker Bridwell 127.0 603 14.9% 13.4% .293 6.31 6.26 157 156 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Chris Tillman 184.3 7.08 3.03 1.17 99 2.6 Bob Milacki Wei-Yin Chen 167.0 6.84 2.16 1.19 97 2.1 Mike Maroth Kevin Gausman 153.0 7.29 3.12 1.00 97 1.9 Ryan Madson Bud Norris 160.3 7.30 3.14 1.12 94 1.8 Scott Kamieniecki Ubaldo Jimenez 150.3 8.68 4.55 1.08 95 1.7 Jason Isringhausen Miguel Gonzalez 147.3 6.35 2.87 1.47 90 1.3 Ken Schrom Darren O’Day 60.7 9.34 2.37 1.04 134 1.0 Jerry Spradlin Zach Britton 72.3 7.59 3.24 0.75 123 0.9 Sparky Lyle Hunter Harvey 88.3 7.95 3.98 1.12 93 0.9 Matt Clement Tommy Hunter 71.7 7.28 1.76 1.00 117 0.8 Jeff Tam Mike Wright 137.3 5.57 2.36 1.18 85 0.8 A.J. Sager T.J. McFarland 86.7 5.40 3.01 0.73 93 0.5 Gabe Gonzalez Dylan Bundy 68.3 6.59 3.82 1.05 89 0.5 Mike Birkbeck Brad Brach 79.3 9.31 3.52 1.25 106 0.5 Richie Lewis Logan Verrett 140.3 6.48 1.92 1.54 83 0.5 Josh Towers Zach Davies 119.0 6.50 3.03 1.29 83 0.5 Jackie Davidson Brian Matusz 52.0 9.00 2.94 1.04 109 0.4 Roger Samuels Chris Jones 91.3 5.42 3.65 0.79 90 0.3 Jim Shellenback Wesley Wright 50.7 7.99 3.20 0.89 107 0.3 Kelly Wunsch Oliver Drake 40.0 9.00 3.60 0.90 110 0.3 Jason Bulger Ryan Webb 66.3 6.38 2.71 0.81 101 0.2 Jason Karnuth Johan Santana 46.3 7.39 3.11 1.17 85 0.2 Shawn Estes Robert Coello 44.7 9.26 5.44 1.01 90 -0.1 Bart Miadich Eddie Gamboa 104.7 6.02 4.04 1.29 77 -0.1 Ryan Glynn Ramon Ramirez 39.7 7.48 4.53 0.91 88 -0.2 Jim Dedrick Dane de la Rosa 50.0 7.38 4.50 1.08 88 -0.2 Jason Bullard Jason Garcia 47.7 6.60 5.28 1.51 73 -0.4 Mark Hampton Brock Huntzinger 72.0 6.75 3.63 1.25 84 -0.4 Travis Thompson Pat McCoy 57.0 6.16 3.32 1.26 81 -0.5 Tim Hamulack Kelvin de la Cruz 62.0 8.13 5.08 1.31 81 -0.6 Jimmy Williams Tim Berry 125.7 5.66 3.51 1.50 73 -0.6 Derrick van Dusen Terry Doyle 101.3 5.60 4.00 1.51 71 -0.8 Giovanni Carrara Joe Saunders 121.7 5.18 3.03 1.55 72 -0.8 Chris Michalak Branden Kline 98.3 5.13 3.57 1.56 69 -0.9 Brian Ahern Tyler Wilson 154.0 6.25 3.04 1.75 70 -1.2 Ty Hartshorn Steve Johnson 69.0 7.57 6.00 2.09 61 -1.3 Dave Rozema Josh Stinson 114.3 5.28 5.12 1.73 64 -1.8 Mike Romano Parker Bridwell 127.0 6.38 5.74 1.70 63 -2.0 Geoff Edsell *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.