2015 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Manny Machado returned in May after completing rehab on his horribly ruptured left-knee ligament and the surgery to repair it. His slash stats were poor during that first month back (.220/.271/.284 in 119 PA), but by the beginning of August he possessed roughly the same park-adjusted offensive mark he’d recorded the season before (111 wRC+, as opposed to 102 wRC+ in 2013). His 2014 campaign ended in August when we underwent surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in his other knee. ZiPS doesn’t specifically “know” about the injuries — just the playing time lost to them. In any case, Machado is expected to replicate his slightly above-average batting line once again — with a little bit more in the way of isolated power than either of the past two seasons.

The breakout age-31 season isn’t a particularly common occurrence in baseball, but that’s what Steve Pearce produced in 2014, recording a 161 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR in 383 plate appearances. Characteristically, ZiPS is conservative. After hitting homers at a rate of 33 per 600 plate appearances, Pearce is projected for 26 every 600 plate appearances in 2015 — plus also a markedly more average defensive figure.

Pitchers
Six Baltimore pitchers accounted for 161 of the club’s 162 starts in 2014. All six of those pitchers return in 2015 and five of them appear in the depth-chart image below. Moreover, fewer than 1.5 wins separates the nominal “ace” of the staff (Chris Tillman) from the likely No. 5 starter (Miguel Gonzalez). There is, in short, considerable parity within the rotation.

Not featured in the depth below is Ubaldo Jimenez. Signed to a four-year, $50 million deal last offseason, Jimenez pitched poorly, producing both run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers about 20% worse than league average — much of that due to a career-worst 13.9% walk rate, the highest such figure among starters who recorded 50-plus innings. ZiPS calls for a return to something approximating league average, however, rendering him quite similar in that way to all five pitchers currently occupying a place in the rotation.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below is David Lough (418 PA, 0.4 WAR), who’s likely to receive some playing time, and also Ryan Flaherty (330 PA, 0.7 WAR), who’s recorded more than 250 plate appearances each of the last two seasons. Among rookie-eligible players, outfielder Dariel Alvarez (408 PA, 1.2 WAR) receives the most encouraging projections for 2015. Meanwhile, pitching prospects Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies, Hunter Harvey, and Mike Wright are all projected to produce something between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Orioles Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manny Machado R 22 3B 547 64 145 31 2 16 54 5 3
Adam Jones R 29 CF 667 89 175 32 2 29 96 11 3
J.J. Hardy R 32 SS 599 63 143 26 0 15 62 0 0
Matt Wieters B 29 C 385 43 88 18 0 15 55 1 0
Chris Davis L 29 1B 562 76 119 23 0 34 96 3 2
Steve Pearce R 32 1B 297 35 68 16 0 13 40 3 1
Jonathan Schoop R 23 2B 468 55 105 19 0 19 53 2 1
Alejandro De Aza L 31 LF 593 71 141 27 6 11 52 19 11
Caleb Joseph R 29 C 441 41 96 18 1 12 48 2 1
Dariel Alvarez R 26 CF 408 45 105 20 2 10 44 4 4
J.P. Arencibia R 29 C 356 37 72 15 0 16 56 0 1
Ryan Lavarnway R 27 C 383 39 84 16 0 9 38 0 0
Rey Navarro B 25 SS 553 59 127 24 3 9 54 5 7
Ryan Flaherty L 28 2B 330 35 69 14 1 10 39 2 1
Mike Ohlman R 24 C 413 40 90 20 2 4 34 2 0
Steve Clevenger L 29 C 312 29 71 15 1 3 27 1 0
David Lough L 29 LF 418 49 96 15 5 7 37 11 5
Alex Hassan R 27 RF 422 45 93 19 1 7 38 2 2
Travis Snider L 27 RF 395 46 86 16 1 14 47 5 3
David Adams R 28 2B 398 39 84 17 2 8 37 2 1
Chris Parmelee L 27 1B 491 50 107 22 1 16 56 1 2
Michael Almanzar R 24 3B 426 42 94 18 1 9 42 6 2
Jimmy Paredes B 26 3B 531 60 120 23 4 11 56 21 7
Julio Borbon L 29 CF 431 43 99 11 3 5 30 18 6
Delmon Young R 29 LF 418 40 103 17 1 12 50 1 0
Alexi Casilla B 30 2B 241 26 53 10 1 1 19 11 2
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. B 26 2B 420 39 100 14 3 2 29 7 4
Chance Sisco L 20 C 501 50 113 21 2 8 46 1 2
Christian Walker R 24 1B 569 62 129 22 1 19 63 2 2
Mike Yastrzemski L 24 RF 485 52 104 21 6 12 50 9 7
Paul Janish R 32 SS 344 28 67 14 1 2 22 1 2
Michael Burgess L 26 LF 406 40 80 20 1 11 44 2 2
Osvaldo Martinez R 27 SS 381 35 80 13 2 3 28 5 2
Sharlon Schoop R 28 SS 259 23 48 9 0 4 20 1 2
Matt Tuiasosopo R 29 LF 415 45 77 12 0 10 43 2 1
Derrik Gibson R 25 SS 432 39 85 12 2 2 26 11 6
Chris Marrero R 26 1B 420 43 91 17 2 11 46 0 0
Adrian Marin R 21 SS 491 40 103 21 1 7 40 11 6
Drew Dosch L 23 3B 590 59 130 18 3 7 44 4 4
Francisco Peguero R 27 RF 394 42 92 14 3 5 37 4 1
Quincy Latimore R 26 LF 394 38 72 13 1 10 37 7 5
Henry Urrutia L 28 LF 329 28 79 13 2 3 27 1 1
Ronald Bermudez R 27 RF 323 28 73 13 1 2 23 2 3
Chih-Hsien Chiang L 27 RF 454 42 99 22 2 7 40 1 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Manny Machado 547 4.9% 15.9% .163 .315 .285 .323 .448 .334
Adam Jones 667 3.6% 19.0% .196 .307 .279 .315 .475 .345
J.J. Hardy 599 5.3% 15.2% .128 .281 .256 .297 .384 .298
Matt Wieters 385 8.3% 17.9% .181 .272 .254 .314 .435 .327
Chris Davis 562 10.0% 31.3% .254 .295 .241 .326 .495 .348
Steve Pearce 297 10.1% 20.5% .211 .293 .262 .345 .473 .355
Jonathan Schoop 468 3.4% 22.4% .172 .270 .238 .275 .410 .301
Alejandro De Aza 593 6.9% 19.9% .134 .316 .262 .320 .396 .313
Caleb Joseph 441 5.2% 21.8% .138 .276 .235 .279 .373 .287
Dariel Alvarez 408 2.9% 13.7% .139 .290 .270 .290 .409 .303
J.P. Arencibia 356 4.8% 28.4% .190 .258 .217 .264 .407 .293
Ryan Lavarnway 383 8.1% 20.1% .125 .286 .243 .311 .368 .303
Rey Navarro 553 4.5% 14.5% .110 .274 .247 .283 .357 .278
Ryan Flaherty 330 6.4% 23.9% .153 .276 .228 .287 .381 .292
Mike Ohlman 413 7.5% 25.7% .096 .320 .239 .299 .335 .285
Steve Clevenger 312 7.1% 15.1% .091 .285 .247 .301 .338 .285
David Lough 418 4.5% 14.8% .120 .280 .251 .290 .371 .286
Alex Hassan 422 10.0% 23.9% .112 .321 .249 .329 .361 .310
Travis Snider 395 8.6% 24.8% .168 .293 .242 .310 .410 .315
David Adams 398 6.0% 21.4% .123 .278 .231 .290 .354 .288
Chris Parmelee 491 8.6% 22.4% .163 .285 .243 .312 .406 .315
Michael Almanzar 426 4.9% 24.2% .119 .297 .238 .286 .357 .288
Jimmy Paredes 531 3.8% 25.8% .126 .302 .237 .266 .363 .279
Julio Borbon 431 5.6% 16.2% .080 .287 .248 .290 .328 .278
Delmon Young 418 4.1% 20.1% .140 .302 .261 .297 .401 .309
Alexi Casilla 241 5.4% 15.4% .067 .278 .238 .280 .305 .267
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 4.0% 13.6% .066 .292 .256 .289 .322 .268
Chance Sisco 501 5.8% 22.6% .105 .303 .243 .293 .348 .284
Christian Walker 569 6.2% 25.7% .155 .302 .246 .297 .401 .307
Mike Yastrzemski 485 5.2% 25.2% .153 .288 .231 .279 .384 .289
Paul Janish 344 5.5% 18.9% .069 .257 .211 .260 .280 .242
Michael Burgess 406 6.9% 27.6% .148 .273 .214 .271 .362 .279
Osvaldo Martinez 381 4.7% 17.6% .074 .268 .225 .265 .299 .250
Sharlon Schoop 259 6.2% 26.3% .088 .262 .201 .253 .289 .241
Matt Tuiasosopo 415 10.1% 29.2% .115 .283 .210 .297 .325 .284
Derrik Gibson 432 7.4% 23.6% .056 .288 .219 .283 .275 .253
Chris Marrero 420 6.4% 22.4% .140 .281 .235 .288 .375 .295
Adrian Marin 491 3.3% 27.3% .094 .293 .221 .250 .315 .250
Drew Dosch 590 5.3% 21.5% .081 .293 .235 .280 .316 .266
Francisco Peguero 394 2.8% 22.1% .093 .302 .243 .267 .336 .266
Quincy Latimore 394 6.3% 32.5% .125 .277 .201 .258 .326 .257
Henry Urrutia 329 3.3% 23.1% .082 .318 .250 .274 .332 .268
Ronald Bermudez 323 3.1% 21.4% .069 .298 .239 .265 .308 .251
Chih-Hsien Chiang 454 4.0% 21.6% .110 .280 .230 .263 .340 .262

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manny Machado 547 5.4 110 13 4.2 Carlos Baerga
Adam Jones 667 5.7 114 -1 4.0 Vernon Wells
J.J. Hardy 599 4.1 86 9 2.7 Jack Wilson
Matt Wieters 385 5.0 104 1 2.5 Bill Lindsey
Chris Davis 562 5.7 122 1 2.2 Carlos Pena
Steve Pearce 297 6.0 123 2 1.5 Danny Litwhiler
Jonathan Schoop 468 4.0 86 4 1.4 Tim Teufel
Alejandro De Aza 593 4.6 96 4 1.3 Milt Thompson
Caleb Joseph 441 3.7 78 1 1.3 Brandon Marsters
Dariel Alvarez 408 4.3 90 3 1.2 John Castellano
J.P. Arencibia 356 3.6 82 -2 0.9 Dave Duncan
Ryan Lavarnway 383 4.1 87 -7 0.8 Bill McGuire
Rey Navarro 553 3.4 75 0 0.7 Pete Rose Jr.
Ryan Flaherty 330 3.8 82 1 0.7 Dave Baker
Mike Ohlman 413 3.6 75 -6 0.5 Ray Corbett
Steve Clevenger 312 3.7 76 -4 0.5 Brad Gulden
David Lough 418 3.9 81 5 0.4 Chris Singleton
Alex Hassan 422 4.2 91 -1 0.4 Bryan Byrne
Travis Snider 395 4.5 97 -3 0.4 Brian Lesher
David Adams 398 3.6 77 -1 0.3 Mike Tyson
Chris Parmelee 491 4.4 96 0 0.3 Larry Broadway
Michael Almanzar 426 3.7 76 -2 0.2 Tommy Whiteman
Jimmy Paredes 531 3.6 71 -1 0.1 Shawon Dunston
Julio Borbon 431 3.6 70 0 0.1 Terry Blocker
Delmon Young 418 4.4 90 -3 0.1 Nicholas Stavinoha
Alexi Casilla 241 3.4 62 0 -0.1 Jesse Garcia
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 3.4 69 0 -0.2 Francisco Matos
Chance Sisco 501 3.6 76 -13 -0.2 Marty Pevey
Christian Walker 569 4.2 90 -2 -0.2 Walter Young
Mike Yastrzemski 485 3.7 81 0 -0.3 Tyler Colvin
Paul Janish 344 2.4 49 1 -0.5 Gary Green
Michael Burgess 406 3.3 73 0 -0.6 Joe Pomierski
Osvaldo Martinez 381 2.8 55 -2 -0.6 Milko Jaramillo
Sharlon Schoop 259 2.3 49 -1 -0.6 Lou Benbow
Matt Tuiasosopo 415 3.3 72 -1 -0.6 Kurt Airoso
Derrik Gibson 432 2.7 55 -4 -0.8 Jamie Athas
Chris Marrero 420 3.8 81 -3 -0.8 Henry Blanco
Adrian Marin 491 2.7 55 -3 -0.9 Crucito Lara
Drew Dosch 590 3.1 64 -4 -0.9 Marco Pernalete
Francisco Peguero 394 3.3 65 1 -0.9 Victor Mata
Quincy Latimore 394 2.8 60 2 -1.0 Aaron Royster
Henry Urrutia 329 3.2 66 -3 -1.1 Jeff Schulz
Ronald Bermudez 323 2.8 58 0 -1.2 Maikel Jova
Chih-Hsien Chiang 454 3.0 65 -2 -1.6 Greg Monda

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Chris Tillman R 27 31 31 184.3 145 62 24 174 88 82
Wei-Yin Chen L 29 28 28 167.0 127 40 22 170 81 76
Kevin Gausman R 24 31 31 153.0 124 53 17 151 75 70
Bud Norris R 30 28 27 160.3 130 56 20 160 80 75
Ubaldo Jimenez R 31 28 27 150.3 145 76 18 137 75 70
Miguel Gonzalez R 31 28 24 147.3 104 47 24 148 77 72
Darren O’Day R 32 64 0 60.7 63 16 7 49 21 20
Zach Britton L 27 71 0 72.3 61 26 6 62 28 26
Hunter Harvey R 20 19 19 88.3 78 39 11 85 45 42
Tommy Hunter R 28 64 0 71.7 58 14 8 66 29 27
Mike Wright R 25 25 25 137.3 85 36 18 150 76 71
T.J. McFarland L 26 35 7 86.7 52 29 7 93 44 41
Dylan Bundy R 22 13 13 68.3 50 29 8 69 36 34
Brad Brach R 29 64 0 79.3 82 31 11 69 35 33
Logan Verrett R 25 24 24 140.3 101 30 24 151 80 75
Zach Davies R 22 23 22 119.0 86 40 17 126 67 63
Brian Matusz L 28 65 0 52.0 52 17 6 47 22 21
Chris Jones L 26 37 7 91.3 55 37 8 96 48 45
Wesley Wright L 30 65 0 50.7 45 18 5 48 22 21
Oliver Drake R 28 35 0 40.0 40 16 4 36 17 16
Ryan Webb R 29 63 0 66.3 47 20 6 67 31 29
Johan Santana L 35 9 9 46.3 38 16 6 47 25 23
Robert Coello R 30 36 0 44.7 46 27 5 40 24 22
Eddie Gamboa R 30 21 18 104.7 70 47 15 112 64 60
Ramon Ramirez R 33 34 0 39.7 33 20 4 38 21 20
Dane de la Rosa R 32 55 0 50.0 41 25 6 48 27 25
Jason Garcia R 22 13 5 47.7 35 28 8 50 31 29
Brock Huntzinger R 26 47 1 72.0 54 29 10 74 41 38
Pat McCoy L 26 46 0 57.0 39 21 8 61 33 31
Kelvin de la Cruz L 26 45 0 62.0 56 35 9 61 36 34
Tim Berry L 24 23 23 125.7 79 49 21 141 81 76
Terry Doyle R 29 27 15 101.3 63 45 17 114 67 63
Joe Saunders L 34 27 20 121.7 70 41 21 144 80 75
Branden Kline R 23 19 19 98.3 56 39 17 114 67 63
Tyler Wilson R 25 32 25 154.0 107 52 30 173 104 97
Steve Johnson R 27 22 16 69.0 58 46 16 74 54 50
Josh Stinson R 27 31 18 114.3 67 65 22 130 85 79
Parker Bridwell R 23 25 25 127.0 90 81 24 141 95 89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Tillman 184.3 789 18.4% 7.9% .271 4.00 4.27 100 107
Wei-Yin Chen 167.0 711 17.9% 5.6% .285 4.10 4.04 102 101
Kevin Gausman 153.0 663 18.7% 8.0% .288 4.12 4.01 103 100
Bud Norris 160.3 697 18.7% 8.0% .290 4.21 4.27 105 107
Ubaldo Jimenez 150.3 664 21.8% 11.4% .282 4.19 4.30 105 107
Miguel Gonzalez 147.3 637 16.3% 7.4% .272 4.40 4.84 110 121
Darren O’Day 60.7 247 25.5% 6.5% .271 2.97 3.50 74 87
Zach Britton 72.3 305 20.0% 8.5% .267 3.24 3.60 81 90
Hunter Harvey 88.3 389 20.1% 10.0% .290 4.28 4.47 107 112
Tommy Hunter 71.7 295 19.7% 4.7% .272 3.39 3.51 85 88
Mike Wright 137.3 598 14.2% 6.0% .292 4.65 4.48 116 112
T.J. McFarland 86.7 382 13.6% 7.6% .296 4.26 4.02 106 100
Dylan Bundy 68.3 303 16.5% 9.6% .289 4.48 4.64 112 116
Brad Brach 79.3 338 24.3% 9.2% .274 3.74 3.92 93 98
Logan Verrett 140.3 602 16.8% 5.0% .289 4.81 4.67 120 116
Zach Davies 119.0 523 16.4% 7.6% .292 4.76 4.66 119 116
Brian Matusz 52.0 220 23.6% 7.7% .287 3.63 3.52 91 88
Chris Jones 91.3 407 13.5% 9.1% .291 4.43 4.34 111 108
Wesley Wright 50.7 218 20.6% 8.3% .292 3.73 3.72 93 93
Oliver Drake 40.0 172 23.3% 9.3% .294 3.60 3.82 90 95
Ryan Webb 66.3 286 16.4% 7.0% .289 3.93 3.67 98 91
Johan Santana 46.3 202 18.8% 7.9% .289 4.47 4.17 112 104
Robert Coello 44.7 201 22.9% 13.4% .291 4.43 4.50 111 112
Eddie Gamboa 104.7 473 14.8% 9.9% .289 5.16 5.11 129 127
Ramon Ramirez 39.7 177 18.6% 11.3% .285 4.54 4.25 113 106
Dane de la Rosa 50.0 223 18.4% 11.2% .280 4.50 4.51 112 113
Jason Garcia 47.7 221 15.8% 12.7% .286 5.48 5.75 137 144
Brock Huntzinger 72.0 319 16.9% 9.1% .288 4.75 4.73 118 118
Pat McCoy 57.0 253 15.4% 8.3% .290 4.89 4.65 122 116
Kelvin de la Cruz 62.0 282 19.9% 12.4% .292 4.94 5.01 123 125
Tim Berry 125.7 567 13.9% 8.6% .292 5.44 5.32 136 133
Terry Doyle 101.3 463 13.6% 9.7% .292 5.60 5.54 140 138
Joe Saunders 121.7 550 12.7% 7.5% .297 5.55 5.22 138 130
Branden Kline 98.3 448 12.5% 8.7% .294 5.77 5.57 144 139
Tyler Wilson 154.0 687 15.6% 7.6% .292 5.67 5.42 141 135
Steve Johnson 69.0 327 17.7% 14.1% .284 6.52 6.51 163 162
Josh Stinson 114.3 538 12.5% 12.1% .287 6.22 6.34 155 158
Parker Bridwell 127.0 603 14.9% 13.4% .293 6.31 6.26 157 156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Tillman 184.3 7.08 3.03 1.17 99 2.6 Bob Milacki
Wei-Yin Chen 167.0 6.84 2.16 1.19 97 2.1 Mike Maroth
Kevin Gausman 153.0 7.29 3.12 1.00 97 1.9 Ryan Madson
Bud Norris 160.3 7.30 3.14 1.12 94 1.8 Scott Kamieniecki
Ubaldo Jimenez 150.3 8.68 4.55 1.08 95 1.7 Jason Isringhausen
Miguel Gonzalez 147.3 6.35 2.87 1.47 90 1.3 Ken Schrom
Darren O’Day 60.7 9.34 2.37 1.04 134 1.0 Jerry Spradlin
Zach Britton 72.3 7.59 3.24 0.75 123 0.9 Sparky Lyle
Hunter Harvey 88.3 7.95 3.98 1.12 93 0.9 Matt Clement
Tommy Hunter 71.7 7.28 1.76 1.00 117 0.8 Jeff Tam
Mike Wright 137.3 5.57 2.36 1.18 85 0.8 A.J. Sager
T.J. McFarland 86.7 5.40 3.01 0.73 93 0.5 Gabe Gonzalez
Dylan Bundy 68.3 6.59 3.82 1.05 89 0.5 Mike Birkbeck
Brad Brach 79.3 9.31 3.52 1.25 106 0.5 Richie Lewis
Logan Verrett 140.3 6.48 1.92 1.54 83 0.5 Josh Towers
Zach Davies 119.0 6.50 3.03 1.29 83 0.5 Jackie Davidson
Brian Matusz 52.0 9.00 2.94 1.04 109 0.4 Roger Samuels
Chris Jones 91.3 5.42 3.65 0.79 90 0.3 Jim Shellenback
Wesley Wright 50.7 7.99 3.20 0.89 107 0.3 Kelly Wunsch
Oliver Drake 40.0 9.00 3.60 0.90 110 0.3 Jason Bulger
Ryan Webb 66.3 6.38 2.71 0.81 101 0.2 Jason Karnuth
Johan Santana 46.3 7.39 3.11 1.17 85 0.2 Shawn Estes
Robert Coello 44.7 9.26 5.44 1.01 90 -0.1 Bart Miadich
Eddie Gamboa 104.7 6.02 4.04 1.29 77 -0.1 Ryan Glynn
Ramon Ramirez 39.7 7.48 4.53 0.91 88 -0.2 Jim Dedrick
Dane de la Rosa 50.0 7.38 4.50 1.08 88 -0.2 Jason Bullard
Jason Garcia 47.7 6.60 5.28 1.51 73 -0.4 Mark Hampton
Brock Huntzinger 72.0 6.75 3.63 1.25 84 -0.4 Travis Thompson
Pat McCoy 57.0 6.16 3.32 1.26 81 -0.5 Tim Hamulack
Kelvin de la Cruz 62.0 8.13 5.08 1.31 81 -0.6 Jimmy Williams
Tim Berry 125.7 5.66 3.51 1.50 73 -0.6 Derrick van Dusen
Terry Doyle 101.3 5.60 4.00 1.51 71 -0.8 Giovanni Carrara
Joe Saunders 121.7 5.18 3.03 1.55 72 -0.8 Chris Michalak
Branden Kline 98.3 5.13 3.57 1.56 69 -0.9 Brian Ahern
Tyler Wilson 154.0 6.25 3.04 1.75 70 -1.2 Ty Hartshorn
Steve Johnson 69.0 7.57 6.00 2.09 61 -1.3 Dave Rozema
Josh Stinson 114.3 5.28 5.12 1.73 64 -1.8 Mike Romano
Parker Bridwell 127.0 6.38 5.74 1.70 63 -2.0 Geoff Edsell

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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