2015 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Manny Machado returned in May after completing rehab on his horribly ruptured left-knee ligament and the surgery to repair it. His slash stats were poor during that first month back (.220/.271/.284 in 119 PA), but by the beginning of August he possessed roughly the same park-adjusted offensive mark he’d recorded the season before (111 wRC+, as opposed to 102 wRC+ in 2013). His 2014 campaign ended in August when we underwent surgery to repair a partially torn ligament in his other knee. ZiPS doesn’t specifically “know” about the injuries — just the playing time lost to them. In any case, Machado is expected to replicate his slightly above-average batting line once again — with a little bit more in the way of isolated power than either of the past two seasons.

The breakout age-31 season isn’t a particularly common occurrence in baseball, but that’s what Steve Pearce produced in 2014, recording a 161 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR in 383 plate appearances. Characteristically, ZiPS is conservative. After hitting homers at a rate of 33 per 600 plate appearances, Pearce is projected for 26 every 600 plate appearances in 2015 — plus also a markedly more average defensive figure.

Pitchers
Six Baltimore pitchers accounted for 161 of the club’s 162 starts in 2014. All six of those pitchers return in 2015 and five of them appear in the depth-chart image below. Moreover, fewer than 1.5 wins separates the nominal “ace” of the staff (Chris Tillman) from the likely No. 5 starter (Miguel Gonzalez). There is, in short, considerable parity within the rotation.

Not featured in the depth below is Ubaldo Jimenez. Signed to a four-year, $50 million deal last offseason, Jimenez pitched poorly, producing both run-prevention and fielding-independent numbers about 20% worse than league average — much of that due to a career-worst 13.9% walk rate, the highest such figure among starters who recorded 50-plus innings. ZiPS calls for a return to something approximating league average, however, rendering him quite similar in that way to all five pitchers currently occupying a place in the rotation.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below is David Lough (418 PA, 0.4 WAR), who’s likely to receive some playing time, and also Ryan Flaherty (330 PA, 0.7 WAR), who’s recorded more than 250 plate appearances each of the last two seasons. Among rookie-eligible players, outfielder Dariel Alvarez (408 PA, 1.2 WAR) receives the most encouraging projections for 2015. Meanwhile, pitching prospects Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies, Hunter Harvey, and Mike Wright are all projected to produce something between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Manny Machado	R	22	3B	547	64	145	31	2	16	54	5	3
Adam Jones	R	29	CF	667	89	175	32	2	29	96	11	3
J.J. Hardy	R	32	SS	599	63	143	26	0	15	62	0	0
Matt Wieters	B	29	C	385	43	88	18	0	15	55	1	0
Chris Davis	L	29	1B	562	76	119	23	0	34	96	3	2
Steve Pearce	R	32	1B	297	35	68	16	0	13	40	3	1
Jonathan Schoop	R	23	2B	468	55	105	19	0	19	53	2	1
Alejandro De Aza	L	31	LF	593	71	141	27	6	11	52	19	11
Caleb Joseph	R	29	C	441	41	96	18	1	12	48	2	1
Dariel Alvarez	R	26	CF	408	45	105	20	2	10	44	4	4
J.P. Arencibia	R	29	C	356	37	72	15	0	16	56	0	1
Ryan Lavarnway	R	27	C	383	39	84	16	0	9	38	0	0
Rey Navarro	B	25	SS	553	59	127	24	3	9	54	5	7
Ryan Flaherty	L	28	2B	330	35	69	14	1	10	39	2	1
Mike Ohlman	R	24	C	413	40	90	20	2	4	34	2	0
Steve Clevenger	L	29	C	312	29	71	15	1	3	27	1	0
David Lough	L	29	LF	418	49	96	15	5	7	37	11	5
Alex Hassan	R	27	RF	422	45	93	19	1	7	38	2	2
Travis Snider	L	27	RF	395	46	86	16	1	14	47	5	3
David Adams	R	28	2B	398	39	84	17	2	8	37	2	1
Chris Parmelee	L	27	1B	491	50	107	22	1	16	56	1	2
Michael Almanzar	R	24	3B	426	42	94	18	1	9	42	6	2
Jimmy Paredes	B	26	3B	531	60	120	23	4	11	56	21	7
Julio Borbon	L	29	CF	431	43	99	11	3	5	30	18	6
Delmon Young	R	29	LF	418	40	103	17	1	12	50	1	0
Alexi Casilla	B	30	2B	241	26	53	10	1	1	19	11	2
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	B	26	2B	420	39	100	14	3	2	29	7	4
Chance Sisco	L	20	C	501	50	113	21	2	8	46	1	2
Christian Walker	R	24	1B	569	62	129	22	1	19	63	2	2
Mike Yastrzemski	L	24	RF	485	52	104	21	6	12	50	9	7
Paul Janish	R	32	SS	344	28	67	14	1	2	22	1	2
Michael Burgess	L	26	LF	406	40	80	20	1	11	44	2	2
Osvaldo Martinez	R	27	SS	381	35	80	13	2	3	28	5	2
Sharlon Schoop	R	28	SS	259	23	48	9	0	4	20	1	2
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	29	LF	415	45	77	12	0	10	43	2	1
Derrik Gibson	R	25	SS	432	39	85	12	2	2	26	11	6
Chris Marrero	R	26	1B	420	43	91	17	2	11	46	0	0
Adrian Marin	R	21	SS	491	40	103	21	1	7	40	11	6
Drew Dosch	L	23	3B	590	59	130	18	3	7	44	4	4
Francisco Peguero	R	27	RF	394	42	92	14	3	5	37	4	1
Quincy Latimore	R	26	LF	394	38	72	13	1	10	37	7	5
Henry Urrutia	L	28	LF	329	28	79	13	2	3	27	1	1
Ronald Bermudez	R	27	RF	323	28	73	13	1	2	23	2	3
Chih-Hsien Chiang	L	27	RF	454	42	99	22	2	7	40	1	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Manny Machado	547	4.9%	15.9%	.163	.315	.285	.323	.448	.334
Adam Jones	667	3.6%	19.0%	.196	.307	.279	.315	.475	.345
J.J. Hardy	599	5.3%	15.2%	.128	.281	.256	.297	.384	.298
Matt Wieters	385	8.3%	17.9%	.181	.272	.254	.314	.435	.327
Chris Davis	562	10.0%	31.3%	.254	.295	.241	.326	.495	.348
Steve Pearce	297	10.1%	20.5%	.211	.293	.262	.345	.473	.355
Jonathan Schoop	468	3.4%	22.4%	.172	.270	.238	.275	.410	.301
Alejandro De Aza	593	6.9%	19.9%	.134	.316	.262	.320	.396	.313
Caleb Joseph	441	5.2%	21.8%	.138	.276	.235	.279	.373	.287
Dariel Alvarez	408	2.9%	13.7%	.139	.290	.270	.290	.409	.303
J.P. Arencibia	356	4.8%	28.4%	.190	.258	.217	.264	.407	.293
Ryan Lavarnway	383	8.1%	20.1%	.125	.286	.243	.311	.368	.303
Rey Navarro	553	4.5%	14.5%	.110	.274	.247	.283	.357	.278
Ryan Flaherty	330	6.4%	23.9%	.153	.276	.228	.287	.381	.292
Mike Ohlman	413	7.5%	25.7%	.096	.320	.239	.299	.335	.285
Steve Clevenger	312	7.1%	15.1%	.091	.285	.247	.301	.338	.285
David Lough	418	4.5%	14.8%	.120	.280	.251	.290	.371	.286
Alex Hassan	422	10.0%	23.9%	.112	.321	.249	.329	.361	.310
Travis Snider	395	8.6%	24.8%	.168	.293	.242	.310	.410	.315
David Adams	398	6.0%	21.4%	.123	.278	.231	.290	.354	.288
Chris Parmelee	491	8.6%	22.4%	.163	.285	.243	.312	.406	.315
Michael Almanzar	426	4.9%	24.2%	.119	.297	.238	.286	.357	.288
Jimmy Paredes	531	3.8%	25.8%	.126	.302	.237	.266	.363	.279
Julio Borbon	431	5.6%	16.2%	.080	.287	.248	.290	.328	.278
Delmon Young	418	4.1%	20.1%	.140	.302	.261	.297	.401	.309
Alexi Casilla	241	5.4%	15.4%	.067	.278	.238	.280	.305	.267
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	420	4.0%	13.6%	.066	.292	.256	.289	.322	.268
Chance Sisco	501	5.8%	22.6%	.105	.303	.243	.293	.348	.284
Christian Walker	569	6.2%	25.7%	.155	.302	.246	.297	.401	.307
Mike Yastrzemski	485	5.2%	25.2%	.153	.288	.231	.279	.384	.289
Paul Janish	344	5.5%	18.9%	.069	.257	.211	.260	.280	.242
Michael Burgess	406	6.9%	27.6%	.148	.273	.214	.271	.362	.279
Osvaldo Martinez	381	4.7%	17.6%	.074	.268	.225	.265	.299	.250
Sharlon Schoop	259	6.2%	26.3%	.088	.262	.201	.253	.289	.241
Matt Tuiasosopo	415	10.1%	29.2%	.115	.283	.210	.297	.325	.284
Derrik Gibson	432	7.4%	23.6%	.056	.288	.219	.283	.275	.253
Chris Marrero	420	6.4%	22.4%	.140	.281	.235	.288	.375	.295
Adrian Marin	491	3.3%	27.3%	.094	.293	.221	.250	.315	.250
Drew Dosch	590	5.3%	21.5%	.081	.293	.235	.280	.316	.266
Francisco Peguero	394	2.8%	22.1%	.093	.302	.243	.267	.336	.266
Quincy Latimore	394	6.3%	32.5%	.125	.277	.201	.258	.326	.257
Henry Urrutia	329	3.3%	23.1%	.082	.318	.250	.274	.332	.268
Ronald Bermudez	323	3.1%	21.4%	.069	.298	.239	.265	.308	.251
Chih-Hsien Chiang	454	4.0%	21.6%	.110	.280	.230	.263	.340	.262

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Manny Machado	547	5.4	110	13	4.2	Carlos Baerga
Adam Jones	667	5.7	114	-1	4.0	Vernon Wells
J.J. Hardy	599	4.1	86	9	2.7	Jack Wilson
Matt Wieters	385	5.0	104	1	2.5	Bill Lindsey
Chris Davis	562	5.7	122	1	2.2	Carlos Pena
Steve Pearce	297	6.0	123	2	1.5	Danny Litwhiler
Jonathan Schoop	468	4.0	86	4	1.4	Tim Teufel
Alejandro De Aza	593	4.6	96	4	1.3	Milt Thompson
Caleb Joseph	441	3.7	78	1	1.3	Brandon Marsters
Dariel Alvarez	408	4.3	90	3	1.2	John Castellano
J.P. Arencibia	356	3.6	82	-2	0.9	Dave Duncan
Ryan Lavarnway	383	4.1	87	-7	0.8	Bill McGuire
Rey Navarro	553	3.4	75	0	0.7	Pete Rose Jr.
Ryan Flaherty	330	3.8	82	1	0.7	Dave Baker
Mike Ohlman	413	3.6	75	-6	0.5	Ray Corbett
Steve Clevenger	312	3.7	76	-4	0.5	Brad Gulden
David Lough	418	3.9	81	5	0.4	Chris Singleton
Alex Hassan	422	4.2	91	-1	0.4	Bryan Byrne
Travis Snider	395	4.5	97	-3	0.4	Brian Lesher
David Adams	398	3.6	77	-1	0.3	Mike Tyson
Chris Parmelee	491	4.4	96	0	0.3	Larry Broadway
Michael Almanzar	426	3.7	76	-2	0.2	Tommy Whiteman
Jimmy Paredes	531	3.6	71	-1	0.1	Shawon Dunston
Julio Borbon	431	3.6	70	0	0.1	Terry Blocker
Delmon Young	418	4.4	90	-3	0.1	Nicholas Stavinoha
Alexi Casilla	241	3.4	62	0	-0.1	Jesse Garcia
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	420	3.4	69	0	-0.2	Francisco Matos
Chance Sisco	501	3.6	76	-13	-0.2	Marty Pevey
Christian Walker	569	4.2	90	-2	-0.2	Walter Young
Mike Yastrzemski	485	3.7	81	0	-0.3	Tyler Colvin
Paul Janish	344	2.4	49	1	-0.5	Gary Green
Michael Burgess	406	3.3	73	0	-0.6	Joe Pomierski
Osvaldo Martinez	381	2.8	55	-2	-0.6	Milko Jaramillo
Sharlon Schoop	259	2.3	49	-1	-0.6	Lou Benbow
Matt Tuiasosopo	415	3.3	72	-1	-0.6	Kurt Airoso
Derrik Gibson	432	2.7	55	-4	-0.8	Jamie Athas
Chris Marrero	420	3.8	81	-3	-0.8	Henry Blanco
Adrian Marin	491	2.7	55	-3	-0.9	Crucito Lara
Drew Dosch	590	3.1	64	-4	-0.9	Marco Pernalete
Francisco Peguero	394	3.3	65	1	-0.9	Victor Mata
Quincy Latimore	394	2.8	60	2	-1.0	Aaron Royster
Henry Urrutia	329	3.2	66	-3	-1.1	Jeff Schulz
Ronald Bermudez	323	2.8	58	0	-1.2	Maikel Jova
Chih-Hsien Chiang	454	3.0	65	-2	-1.6	Greg Monda

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Tillman	R	27	31	31	184.3	145	62	24	174	88	82
Wei-Yin Chen	L	29	28	28	167.0	127	40	22	170	81	76
Kevin Gausman	R	24	31	31	153.0	124	53	17	151	75	70
Bud Norris	R	30	28	27	160.3	130	56	20	160	80	75
Ubaldo Jimenez	R	31	28	27	150.3	145	76	18	137	75	70
Miguel Gonzalez	R	31	28	24	147.3	104	47	24	148	77	72
Darren O’Day	R	32	64	0	60.7	63	16	7	49	21	20
Zach Britton	L	27	71	0	72.3	61	26	6	62	28	26
Hunter Harvey	R	20	19	19	88.3	78	39	11	85	45	42
Tommy Hunter	R	28	64	0	71.7	58	14	8	66	29	27
Mike Wright	R	25	25	25	137.3	85	36	18	150	76	71
T.J. McFarland	L	26	35	7	86.7	52	29	7	93	44	41
Dylan Bundy	R	22	13	13	68.3	50	29	8	69	36	34
Brad Brach	R	29	64	0	79.3	82	31	11	69	35	33
Logan Verrett	R	25	24	24	140.3	101	30	24	151	80	75
Zach Davies	R	22	23	22	119.0	86	40	17	126	67	63
Brian Matusz	L	28	65	0	52.0	52	17	6	47	22	21
Chris Jones	L	26	37	7	91.3	55	37	8	96	48	45
Wesley Wright	L	30	65	0	50.7	45	18	5	48	22	21
Oliver Drake	R	28	35	0	40.0	40	16	4	36	17	16
Ryan Webb	R	29	63	0	66.3	47	20	6	67	31	29
Johan Santana	L	35	9	9	46.3	38	16	6	47	25	23
Robert Coello	R	30	36	0	44.7	46	27	5	40	24	22
Eddie Gamboa	R	30	21	18	104.7	70	47	15	112	64	60
Ramon Ramirez	R	33	34	0	39.7	33	20	4	38	21	20
Dane de la Rosa	R	32	55	0	50.0	41	25	6	48	27	25
Jason Garcia	R	22	13	5	47.7	35	28	8	50	31	29
Brock Huntzinger	R	26	47	1	72.0	54	29	10	74	41	38
Pat McCoy	L	26	46	0	57.0	39	21	8	61	33	31
Kelvin de la Cruz	L	26	45	0	62.0	56	35	9	61	36	34
Tim Berry	L	24	23	23	125.7	79	49	21	141	81	76
Terry Doyle	R	29	27	15	101.3	63	45	17	114	67	63
Joe Saunders	L	34	27	20	121.7	70	41	21	144	80	75
Branden Kline	R	23	19	19	98.3	56	39	17	114	67	63
Tyler Wilson	R	25	32	25	154.0	107	52	30	173	104	97
Steve Johnson	R	27	22	16	69.0	58	46	16	74	54	50
Josh Stinson	R	27	31	18	114.3	67	65	22	130	85	79
Parker Bridwell	R	23	25	25	127.0	90	81	24	141	95	89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Tillman	184.3	789	18.4%	7.9%	.271	4.00	4.27	100	107
Wei-Yin Chen	167.0	711	17.9%	5.6%	.285	4.10	4.04	102	101
Kevin Gausman	153.0	663	18.7%	8.0%	.288	4.12	4.01	103	100
Bud Norris	160.3	697	18.7%	8.0%	.290	4.21	4.27	105	107
Ubaldo Jimenez	150.3	664	21.8%	11.4%	.282	4.19	4.30	105	107
Miguel Gonzalez	147.3	637	16.3%	7.4%	.272	4.40	4.84	110	121
Darren O’Day	60.7	247	25.5%	6.5%	.271	2.97	3.50	74	87
Zach Britton	72.3	305	20.0%	8.5%	.267	3.24	3.60	81	90
Hunter Harvey	88.3	389	20.1%	10.0%	.290	4.28	4.47	107	112
Tommy Hunter	71.7	295	19.7%	4.7%	.272	3.39	3.51	85	88
Mike Wright	137.3	598	14.2%	6.0%	.292	4.65	4.48	116	112
T.J. McFarland	86.7	382	13.6%	7.6%	.296	4.26	4.02	106	100
Dylan Bundy	68.3	303	16.5%	9.6%	.289	4.48	4.64	112	116
Brad Brach	79.3	338	24.3%	9.2%	.274	3.74	3.92	93	98
Logan Verrett	140.3	602	16.8%	5.0%	.289	4.81	4.67	120	116
Zach Davies	119.0	523	16.4%	7.6%	.292	4.76	4.66	119	116
Brian Matusz	52.0	220	23.6%	7.7%	.287	3.63	3.52	91	88
Chris Jones	91.3	407	13.5%	9.1%	.291	4.43	4.34	111	108
Wesley Wright	50.7	218	20.6%	8.3%	.292	3.73	3.72	93	93
Oliver Drake	40.0	172	23.3%	9.3%	.294	3.60	3.82	90	95
Ryan Webb	66.3	286	16.4%	7.0%	.289	3.93	3.67	98	91
Johan Santana	46.3	202	18.8%	7.9%	.289	4.47	4.17	112	104
Robert Coello	44.7	201	22.9%	13.4%	.291	4.43	4.50	111	112
Eddie Gamboa	104.7	473	14.8%	9.9%	.289	5.16	5.11	129	127
Ramon Ramirez	39.7	177	18.6%	11.3%	.285	4.54	4.25	113	106
Dane de la Rosa	50.0	223	18.4%	11.2%	.280	4.50	4.51	112	113
Jason Garcia	47.7	221	15.8%	12.7%	.286	5.48	5.75	137	144
Brock Huntzinger	72.0	319	16.9%	9.1%	.288	4.75	4.73	118	118
Pat McCoy	57.0	253	15.4%	8.3%	.290	4.89	4.65	122	116
Kelvin de la Cruz	62.0	282	19.9%	12.4%	.292	4.94	5.01	123	125
Tim Berry	125.7	567	13.9%	8.6%	.292	5.44	5.32	136	133
Terry Doyle	101.3	463	13.6%	9.7%	.292	5.60	5.54	140	138
Joe Saunders	121.7	550	12.7%	7.5%	.297	5.55	5.22	138	130
Branden Kline	98.3	448	12.5%	8.7%	.294	5.77	5.57	144	139
Tyler Wilson	154.0	687	15.6%	7.6%	.292	5.67	5.42	141	135
Steve Johnson	69.0	327	17.7%	14.1%	.284	6.52	6.51	163	162
Josh Stinson	114.3	538	12.5%	12.1%	.287	6.22	6.34	155	158
Parker Bridwell	127.0	603	14.9%	13.4%	.293	6.31	6.26	157	156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Tillman	184.3	7.08	3.03	1.17	99	2.6	Bob Milacki
Wei-Yin Chen	167.0	6.84	2.16	1.19	97	2.1	Mike Maroth
Kevin Gausman	153.0	7.29	3.12	1.00	97	1.9	Ryan Madson
Bud Norris	160.3	7.30	3.14	1.12	94	1.8	Scott Kamieniecki
Ubaldo Jimenez	150.3	8.68	4.55	1.08	95	1.7	Jason Isringhausen
Miguel Gonzalez	147.3	6.35	2.87	1.47	90	1.3	Ken Schrom
Darren O’Day	60.7	9.34	2.37	1.04	134	1.0	Jerry Spradlin
Zach Britton	72.3	7.59	3.24	0.75	123	0.9	Sparky Lyle
Hunter Harvey	88.3	7.95	3.98	1.12	93	0.9	Matt Clement
Tommy Hunter	71.7	7.28	1.76	1.00	117	0.8	Jeff Tam
Mike Wright	137.3	5.57	2.36	1.18	85	0.8	A.J. Sager
T.J. McFarland	86.7	5.40	3.01	0.73	93	0.5	Gabe Gonzalez
Dylan Bundy	68.3	6.59	3.82	1.05	89	0.5	Mike Birkbeck
Brad Brach	79.3	9.31	3.52	1.25	106	0.5	Richie Lewis
Logan Verrett	140.3	6.48	1.92	1.54	83	0.5	Josh Towers
Zach Davies	119.0	6.50	3.03	1.29	83	0.5	Jackie Davidson
Brian Matusz	52.0	9.00	2.94	1.04	109	0.4	Roger Samuels
Chris Jones	91.3	5.42	3.65	0.79	90	0.3	Jim Shellenback
Wesley Wright	50.7	7.99	3.20	0.89	107	0.3	Kelly Wunsch
Oliver Drake	40.0	9.00	3.60	0.90	110	0.3	Jason Bulger
Ryan Webb	66.3	6.38	2.71	0.81	101	0.2	Jason Karnuth
Johan Santana	46.3	7.39	3.11	1.17	85	0.2	Shawn Estes
Robert Coello	44.7	9.26	5.44	1.01	90	-0.1	Bart Miadich
Eddie Gamboa	104.7	6.02	4.04	1.29	77	-0.1	Ryan Glynn
Ramon Ramirez	39.7	7.48	4.53	0.91	88	-0.2	Jim Dedrick
Dane de la Rosa	50.0	7.38	4.50	1.08	88	-0.2	Jason Bullard
Jason Garcia	47.7	6.60	5.28	1.51	73	-0.4	Mark Hampton
Brock Huntzinger	72.0	6.75	3.63	1.25	84	-0.4	Travis Thompson
Pat McCoy	57.0	6.16	3.32	1.26	81	-0.5	Tim Hamulack
Kelvin de la Cruz	62.0	8.13	5.08	1.31	81	-0.6	Jimmy Williams
Tim Berry	125.7	5.66	3.51	1.50	73	-0.6	Derrick van Dusen
Terry Doyle	101.3	5.60	4.00	1.51	71	-0.8	Giovanni Carrara
Joe Saunders	121.7	5.18	3.03	1.55	72	-0.8	Chris Michalak
Branden Kline	98.3	5.13	3.57	1.56	69	-0.9	Brian Ahern
Tyler Wilson	154.0	6.25	3.04	1.75	70	-1.2	Ty Hartshorn
Steve Johnson	69.0	7.57	6.00	2.09	61	-1.3	Dave Rozema
Josh Stinson	114.3	5.28	5.12	1.73	64	-1.8	Mike Romano
Parker Bridwell	127.0	6.38	5.74	1.70	63	-2.0	Geoff Edsell

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.