2015 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington

Batters
Despite the considerable investments made by the club both in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval this offseason — amounting to nearly $200 million collectively, those contracts — the top WAR projection among all Red Sox players belongs to their second-round pick from the 2004 draft. Dustin Pedroia produced the lowest slugging and isolated-power figures (.376 and .098, respectively) of his career last year, while also recording a career-worst strikeout rate (12.3%). ZiPS calls for Pedroia to find some positive regression in all three areas while still retaining his elite second-base defense.

Probably also capable of providing if not elite, then at least above-average, second-base defense is Mookie Betts. Owing to the continued employment by the club of Pedroia, however, Betts will be forced to supply above-average defense elsewhere. In this case, the most likely destination is right field. It would fair to say that Betts doesn’t possess the typical right-field profile, featuring less power and size than most who play the position. He has excellent plate-discipline skills, however, plus speed and non-negligible power on contact. Note that Betts’ defensive projection below (of -1 runs) is for center field. The equivalent in right would be about +6 or +7 runs saved.

Pitchers
As noted by Dave Cameron last Thursday, Rick Porcello isn’t necessarily the pitcher one conjures up when endeavoring to identify an obvious No. 1 starter for a postseason contender. ZiPS is optimistic that he can at least fake it for the time being, however. Despite having never posted above a 3.2 WAR in any season, Porcello is projected to produce a 3.5 WAR for Boston in 2015. This is unusual, of course. Projections systems are marked, if anything, by the application of regression to a player’s performances. To project a career year, then, is by definition atypical.

A hasty inspection of the ZiPS projections published here at the site so far reveals only two pitchers — Clayton Kershaw (60 ERA-) and Craig Kimbrel (42 ERA-) — to receive a better ERA forecast relative to park and league than Koji Uehara. That group will likely receive at least one more member — after Cincinnati’s projections are published, for example — but the point remains that Uehara continues to profile as one of the league’s best pitchers on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Shane Victorino (402 PA, 1.2 WAR) is omitted from the depth-chart image below, but will almost certainly play something larger than a typical bench role. The same sentiment probably applies to Allen Craig (506 PA, 0.5 WAR) and, merely because his defense is so good, Jackie Bradley Jr. (505 PA, 0.7 WAR). Catcher Blake Swihart (461 PA, 1.9 WAR) receives the top WAR projection among batting prospects. Rookie-eligible pitchers Matt Barnes, Edwin Escobar, Henry Owens, and Eduardo Rodriguez — all four of them — receive a projection better than 1.0 WAR.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Dustin Pedroia	R	31	2B	642	75	161	34	1	10	62	12	6
Mookie Betts	R	22	CF	653	88	156	36	4	13	65	30	8
David Ortiz	L	39	DH	537	59	129	27	1	29	88	1	0
Pablo Sandoval	B	28	3B	588	70	150	31	3	19	83	0	1
Hanley Ramirez	R	31	LF	495	67	120	31	1	16	70	14	5
Rusney Castillo	R	27	CF	583	66	144	24	3	11	50	21	9
Xander Bogaerts	R	22	SS	607	69	144	30	4	14	53	5	3
Mike Napoli	R	33	1B	467	50	95	20	1	19	54	2	1
Blake Swihart	B	23	C	461	47	105	25	3	8	45	5	4
Christian Vazquez	R	24	C	460	44	102	22	0	4	38	2	3
Ryan Hanigan	R	34	C	286	21	59	11	0	4	29	0	0
Garin Cecchini	L	24	3B	541	59	125	28	3	6	47	16	5
Shane Victorino	R	34	RF	402	47	95	18	3	8	37	15	2
Daniel Nava	B	32	RF	455	49	103	23	0	7	44	3	2
Brock Holt!	L	27	3B	581	69	141	25	5	4	43	14	6
Sean Coyle	R	23	2B	376	45	79	17	1	14	40	10	2
Deven Marrero	R	24	SS	468	46	99	21	1	4	34	16	6
Jackie Bradley Jr.	L	25	CF	505	58	103	25	2	7	41	10	5
Jemile Weeks	B	28	2B	496	56	108	22	6	2	31	13	4
Allen Craig	R	30	RF	506	55	119	26	1	13	64	2	1
Luke Montz	R	31	C	214	23	39	10	0	7	27	1	1
Ryan Roberts	R	34	2B	365	38	77	17	1	7	34	5	4
Manuel Margot	R	20	CF	503	52	113	22	3	9	43	29	21
Bryce Brentz	R	26	LF	419	46	95	20	1	13	45	2	2
Mike McCoy	R	34	SS	360	35	67	14	1	2	24	12	5
Travis Shaw	L	25	1B	550	57	112	27	2	14	52	6	3
Justin Henry	L	30	2B	387	34	84	14	3	1	26	9	5
Jeff Bianchi	R	28	SS	321	28	69	13	1	3	28	6	3
Brandon Snyder	R	28	1B	242	24	51	12	0	7	24	1	0
Keury de la Cruz	L	23	LF	437	40	99	22	2	8	41	7	6
Henry Ramos	B	23	RF	370	35	79	15	2	7	31	5	9
Blake Tekotte	L	28	RF	379	38	72	20	3	8	34	8	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Dustin Pedroia	642	8.6%	11.5%	.114	.301	.278	.340	.392	.323
Mookie Betts	653	9.2%	13.0%	.142	.292	.266	.336	.408	.335
David Ortiz	537	11.9%	16.4%	.249	.282	.277	.363	.526	.361
Pablo Sandoval	588	6.6%	14.5%	.175	.297	.279	.328	.454	.335
Hanley Ramirez	495	9.3%	19.2%	.184	.312	.271	.345	.455	.351
Rusney Castillo	583	5.8%	14.1%	.117	.300	.269	.326	.386	.320
Xander Bogaerts	607	7.2%	21.4%	.146	.317	.263	.322	.409	.321
Mike Napoli	467	13.9%	29.1%	.200	.314	.241	.353	.441	.350
Blake Swihart	461	5.4%	21.0%	.128	.294	.242	.284	.370	.287
Christian Vazquez	460	7.6%	19.6%	.082	.302	.246	.305	.328	.280
Ryan Hanigan	286	11.2%	12.9%	.093	.266	.240	.335	.333	.292
Garin Cecchini	541	8.3%	22.7%	.107	.330	.256	.325	.363	.311
Shane Victorino	402	6.0%	14.7%	.132	.291	.261	.317	.393	.318
Daniel Nava	455	8.6%	20.2%	.110	.316	.258	.339	.368	.316
Brock Holt!	581	6.5%	17.7%	.088	.321	.267	.318	.355	.299
Sean Coyle	376	7.2%	32.4%	.179	.313	.232	.293	.411	.312
Deven Marrero	468	6.8%	22.4%	.082	.294	.230	.285	.312	.271
Jackie Bradley Jr.	505	8.1%	25.7%	.111	.302	.228	.302	.339	.288
Jemile Weeks	496	8.9%	16.1%	.092	.296	.247	.321	.339	.296
Allen Craig	506	6.7%	21.3%	.145	.307	.258	.314	.403	.317
Luke Montz	214	8.9%	29.9%	.162	.262	.204	.280	.366	.285
Ryan Roberts	365	7.7%	21.1%	.120	.280	.232	.292	.352	.284
Manuel Margot	503	6.0%	19.1%	.119	.289	.244	.292	.363	.284
Bryce Brentz	419	6.2%	29.1%	.157	.322	.245	.296	.402	.307
Mike McCoy	360	9.4%	19.2%	.070	.264	.213	.292	.283	.259
Travis Shaw	550	9.1%	26.0%	.147	.288	.227	.300	.374	.301
Justin Henry	387	7.5%	15.0%	.066	.282	.239	.299	.305	.270
Jeff Bianchi	321	5.0%	22.1%	.080	.291	.231	.270	.311	.258
Brandon Snyder	242	5.0%	30.6%	.147	.303	.228	.277	.375	.290
Keury de la Cruz	437	3.7%	27.5%	.120	.311	.237	.263	.357	.270
Henry Ramos	370	5.7%	24.6%	.117	.291	.230	.277	.347	.270
Blake Tekotte	379	6.6%	30.3%	.145	.286	.209	.269	.354	.274

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Dustin Pedroia	642	5.0	101	12	3.8	Billy Herman
Mookie Betts	653	5.3	104	-1	3.1	Andrew McCutchen
David Ortiz	537	7.2	141	0	2.9	Rafael Palmeiro
Pablo Sandoval	588	5.5	112	-1	2.8	Aramis Ramirez
Hanley Ramirez	495	5.9	118	4	2.7	Bernard Gilkey
Rusney Castillo	583	4.7	100	3	2.4	Mike Devereaux
Xander Bogaerts	607	4.8	100	-5	2.3	Jhonny Peralta
Mike Napoli	467	5.5	117	4	2.0	Greg Luzinski
Blake Swihart	461	3.7	78	7	1.9	Tim Laker
Christian Vazquez	460	3.5	74	6	1.6	Maxim St. Pierre
Ryan Hanigan	286	4.0	85	3	1.4	Gene Desautels
Garin Cecchini	541	4.4	89	-2	1.3	Ernest Riles
Shane Victorino	402	4.9	94	4	1.2	Dan Gladden
Daniel Nava	455	4.5	95	4	1.1	Jason Michaels
Brock Holt!	581	4.2	85	0	1.1	Jose Vizcaino
Sean Coyle	376	4.4	91	-1	1.0	Gary Gaetti
Deven Marrero	468	3.2	64	6	0.9	Andre Wood
Jackie Bradley Jr.	505	3.6	76	3	0.7	Kevin Romine
Jemile Weeks	496	4.0	82	-3	0.6	Nelson Liriano
Allen Craig	506	4.6	96	-2	0.5	Rondell White
Luke Montz	214	3.4	76	-2	0.3	Steve Yeager
Ryan Roberts	365	3.5	76	0	0.2	Webster Garrison
Manuel Margot	503	3.5	79	-2	0.1	Lou Collier
Bryce Brentz	419	4.2	90	-3	0.0	Walter Young
Mike McCoy	360	2.9	59	-1	-0.1	Rabbit Warstler
Travis Shaw	550	3.9	84	3	-0.2	Chris Weinke
Justin Henry	387	3.2	67	0	-0.2	Chris DeLaCruz
Jeff Bianchi	321	3.0	60	0	-0.2	Steve Sisco
Brandon Snyder	242	3.7	77	1	-0.3	Fred McNair
Keury de la Cruz	437	3.2	69	1	-1.0	James Hall
Henry Ramos	370	3.0	70	-2	-1.2	Felix Jose
Blake Tekotte	379	3.1	69	-4	-1.2	James Clifford

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Rick Porcello	R	26	31	29	183.7	131	42	17	185	81	76
Wade Miley	L	28	31	30	186.7	155	63	19	184	87	81
Clay Buchholz	R	30	25	25	153.3	118	50	17	152	76	71
Edwin Escobar	L	23	26	24	138.3	113	39	17	138	67	63
Justin Masterson	R	30	29	26	157.7	134	71	14	150	80	75
Henry Owens	L	22	26	26	138.7	132	70	17	130	71	66
Joe Kelly	R	27	28	20	124.0	83	49	12	125	62	58
Matt Barnes	R	25	25	22	121.7	94	46	13	124	62	58
Eduardo Rodriguez	R	22	23	23	122.7	89	44	12	128	63	59
Koji Uehara	R	40	59	0	56.7	69	9	7	44	17	16
Anthony Ranaudo	R	25	24	24	125.3	82	52	16	129	68	64
Dana Eveland	L	31	34	10	85.0	67	31	9	85	42	39
Junichi Tazawa	R	29	69	0	68.0	68	19	6	62	27	25
Brandon Workman	R	26	30	22	130.7	106	44	20	135	72	67
Brian Johnson	L	24	23	23	108.3	81	47	14	109	59	55
Zeke Spruill	R	25	30	19	120.7	75	42	13	131	66	62
Burke Badenhop	R	32	65	0	63.0	42	15	5	64	27	25
Ryan Dempster	R	38	18	16	93.3	77	41	15	96	54	50
Tom Layne	L	30	62	0	59.0	51	29	5	54	27	25
Anthony Varvaro	R	30	57	0	58.7	46	24	5	56	27	25
Heath Hembree	R	26	57	0	57.7	55	23	6	54	27	25
Edward Mujica	R	31	63	0	58.7	43	12	7	60	28	26
Noe Ramirez	R	25	42	0	62.0	46	20	6	62	30	28
Steven Wright	R	30	22	19	113.7	72	57	15	123	70	65
Drake Britton	L	26	41	10	94.0	62	48	10	99	55	51
Jandel Gustave	R	22	19	13	70.3	47	35	9	76	43	40
Craig Breslow	L	34	59	0	55.0	40	24	6	56	29	27
Ryan Verdugo	L	28	21	15	81.3	60	44	12	85	50	47
Mike Augliera	R	25	23	22	114.7	52	27	17	136	72	67
Robby Scott	L	25	30	0	50.3	34	21	6	53	29	27
Casey Crosby	L	26	15	10	53.0	36	44	8	57	39	36
Mitchell Boggs	R	31	52	0	61.7	33	31	7	68	39	36
Nestor Molina	R	26	32	7	68.0	37	27	13	82	48	45

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Rick Porcello	183.7	778	16.8%	5.4%	.288	3.72	3.59	91	88
Wade Miley	186.7	807	19.2%	7.8%	.291	3.91	3.82	96	93
Clay Buchholz	153.3	662	17.8%	7.6%	.287	4.17	4.13	102	101
Edwin Escobar	138.3	592	19.1%	6.6%	.291	4.10	4.07	100	100
Justin Masterson	157.7	694	19.3%	10.2%	.295	4.28	4.18	105	102
Henry Owens	138.7	616	21.4%	11.4%	.290	4.28	4.51	105	110
Joe Kelly	124.0	546	15.2%	9.0%	.285	4.21	4.33	103	106
Matt Barnes	121.7	535	17.6%	8.6%	.295	4.29	4.26	105	104
Eduardo Rodriguez	122.7	540	16.5%	8.1%	.299	4.33	4.17	106	102
Koji Uehara	56.7	223	30.9%	4.0%	.270	2.54	2.78	62	68
Anthony Ranaudo	125.3	557	14.7%	9.3%	.281	4.60	4.85	113	119
Dana Eveland	85.0	371	18.1%	8.4%	.296	4.13	4.20	101	103
Junichi Tazawa	68.0	285	23.9%	6.7%	.293	3.31	3.12	81	76
Brandon Workman	130.7	571	18.6%	7.7%	.290	4.61	4.60	113	113
Brian Johnson	108.3	481	16.8%	9.8%	.286	4.57	4.81	112	118
Zeke Spruill	120.7	535	14.0%	7.8%	.296	4.62	4.46	113	109
Burke Badenhop	63.0	268	15.7%	5.6%	.288	3.57	3.35	87	82
Ryan Dempster	93.3	417	18.5%	9.8%	.288	4.82	4.98	118	122
Tom Layne	59.0	260	19.6%	11.2%	.285	3.81	4.08	93	100
Anthony Varvaro	58.7	256	18.0%	9.4%	.283	3.84	3.85	94	94
Heath Hembree	57.7	250	22.0%	9.2%	.293	3.90	3.82	95	94
Edward Mujica	58.7	248	17.3%	4.8%	.286	3.99	3.83	98	94
Noe Ramirez	62.0	268	17.2%	7.5%	.290	4.06	4.02	99	98
Steven Wright	113.7	521	13.8%	10.9%	.291	5.15	5.24	126	128
Drake Britton	94.0	429	14.5%	11.2%	.292	4.88	4.79	119	117
Jandel Gustave	70.3	322	14.6%	10.9%	.295	5.12	5.12	125	125
Craig Breslow	55.0	245	16.3%	9.8%	.289	4.42	4.46	108	109
Ryan Verdugo	81.3	373	16.1%	11.8%	.290	5.20	5.38	127	132
Mike Augliera	114.7	507	10.3%	5.3%	.294	5.26	5.04	129	123
Robby Scott	50.3	225	15.1%	9.3%	.292	4.83	4.70	118	115
Casey Crosby	53.0	260	13.8%	16.9%	.292	6.11	6.45	149	158
Mitchell Boggs	61.7	284	11.6%	10.9%	.292	5.25	5.09	128	125
Nestor Molina	68.0	313	11.8%	8.6%	.297	5.96	5.76	146	141

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Rick Porcello	183.7	6.42	2.06	0.83	109	3.5	Chris Holt
Wade Miley	186.7	7.47	3.04	0.92	104	3.1	Chris Hammond
Clay Buchholz	153.3	6.93	2.94	1.00	97	2.0	Scott Kamieniecki
Edwin Escobar	138.3	7.35	2.54	1.11	99	1.9	Patrick Misch
Justin Masterson	157.7	7.65	4.05	0.80	95	1.8	Bobby Witt
Henry Owens	138.7	8.57	4.54	1.10	95	1.6	Jim Deshaies
Joe Kelly	124.0	6.02	3.56	0.87	96	1.5	Chris Hook
Matt Barnes	121.7	6.95	3.40	0.96	95	1.4	Brad Rigby
Eduardo Rodriguez	122.7	6.53	3.23	0.88	94	1.4	Clemente Nunez
Koji Uehara	56.7	10.95	1.43	1.11	160	1.3	Trevor Hoffman
Anthony Ranaudo	125.3	5.89	3.74	1.15	88	1.0	Mike Fyhrie
Dana Eveland	85.0	7.09	3.28	0.95	98	0.9	Terry Burrows
Junichi Tazawa	68.0	9.00	2.51	0.79	123	0.9	Donnie Moore
Brandon Workman	130.7	7.30	3.03	1.38	88	0.9	Shane Bowers
Brian Johnson	108.3	6.73	3.91	1.16	89	0.9	Dave Otto
Zeke Spruill	120.7	5.59	3.13	0.97	88	0.7	Tim Drew
Burke Badenhop	63.0	6.00	2.14	0.71	114	0.6	Ron Taylor
Ryan Dempster	93.3	7.43	3.95	1.45	84	0.4	Ed Riley
Tom Layne	59.0	7.78	4.42	0.76	106	0.4	Matt Whisenant
Anthony Varvaro	58.7	7.05	3.68	0.77	106	0.4	Jason Bullard
Heath Hembree	57.7	8.58	3.59	0.94	104	0.3	Todd Bussa
Edward Mujica	58.7	6.59	1.84	1.07	102	0.2	Kenny Greer
Noe Ramirez	62.0	6.68	2.90	0.87	100	0.2	Jerry Spradlin
Steven Wright	113.7	5.70	4.51	1.19	79	0.0	Giovanni Carrara
Drake Britton	94.0	5.94	4.60	0.96	83	0.0	Brian Matz
Jandel Gustave	70.3	6.02	4.48	1.15	79	0.0	Jon Asahina
Craig Breslow	55.0	6.55	3.93	0.98	92	-0.1	Mike Venafro
Ryan Verdugo	81.3	6.64	4.87	1.33	78	-0.1	Mike Spiegel
Mike Augliera	114.7	4.08	2.12	1.33	77	-0.1	Ryan Cox
Robby Scott	50.3	6.08	3.76	1.07	84	-0.3	Al Levine
Casey Crosby	53.0	6.11	7.47	1.36	66	-0.7	Bill White
Mitchell Boggs	61.7	4.81	4.52	1.02	77	-0.8	Mike Sullivan
Nestor Molina	68.0	4.90	3.57	1.72	68	-1.0	Steven Rowe

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.