2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago AL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington

Batters
“Why do you hate Jorge Soler?” is a reaction zero people expressed via Twitter on Thursday when the author shared the depth-chart image below by way of that same social-media platform. What certain respondents did note, however, is that they’d take the over on Soler’s 1.0 WAR projection. Which, one comment regarding that: due (presumably) to limited playing time in the past, ZiPS only forecasts Soler for 345 plate appearances in 2015. That’s 1.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances — a substantial figure, that, for a player who’s recorded just a half-season’s worth of games above High-A.

Conspicuous by his absence in that same depth-chart image below is third-base prospect Kris Bryant, who receives the club’s highest projected WAR here, according to ZiPS, and the second-highest by Steamer. Whether he’ll be part of the opening-day roster isn’t really a question ZiPS, being a computer model, is prepared to answer. There appears to be some evidence, however, that when he does appear in the majors, he (i.e. Bryant) will be among the club’s very best field players.

Pitchers
Unsurprisingly, given both his track record and also the millions of dollars with which the Cubs have agreed to remunerate him, Jon Lester receives the most promising projection among the club’s starters by some margin. He’s averaged 207 innings and 4.8 wins per year since 2008. ZiPS forecasts a nearly identical season in 2015: 208.2 IP and 4.6 WAR.

Of some interest with regard to the remaining starters is the relative optimism and then pessimism concerning Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, respectively. In the case of Hendricks, perhaps it’s precisely what one ought to expect from a projection system. Despite the fact that he sits at just 88 mph, Hendricks has nevertheless limited both walks and home runs throughout his minor-league career. The strength of his projection (165.1 IP, 2.7 WAR) assumes a continuation of this trend. Arrieta, meanwhile, distinguished himself as one of the game’s top pitchers of 2014, finishing 11th among all pitchers by WAR despite the fact that he compiled too few innings (156.2) to qualify. Probably owing to the influence of his other four major-league seasons during which he wasn’t dominant, ZiPS calls for a more regular season from Arrieta (154.1 IP, 2.3 WAR) than one might otherwise expect in light of his excellent 2014.

Bench/Prospects
While Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia might form a left-field platoon for the Cubs to begin the season, another possibility is that Arismendy Alcantara receives a large share/all of the playing time there, too. ZiPS gives him the fourth-best projection (645 PA, 2.4 WAR) among all Cubs batters. Outfielder Albert Almora, catcher Rafael Lopez, and shortstop Addison Russell have recorded just 14 major-league plate appearances collectively but are all projected to play at least like a competent bench player beginning in 2015. Among pitchers, neither C.J. Edwards nor Tsuyoshi Wada is expected to break spring training in the rotation, but neither would appear to be wholly unqualified for such a role, either.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Kris Bryant	R	23	3B	557	91	126	25	4	29	96	10	4
Anthony Rizzo	L	25	1B	651	91	153	33	2	30	94	6	5
Starlin Castro	R	25	SS	674	75	180	35	5	15	71	12	7
Arismendy Alcantara	B	23	2B	645	83	148	34	9	19	79	25	7
Miguel Montero	L	31	C	529	46	110	20	1	12	64	0	2
Javier Baez	R	22	SS	650	90	140	30	4	30	90	18	7
Dexter Fowler	B	29	CF	526	62	118	19	6	10	39	13	6
Addison Russell	R	21	SS	407	50	91	18	3	12	44	10	4
Welington Castillo	R	28	C	417	38	92	19	0	12	43	1	0
Albert Almora	R	21	CF	576	67	144	28	5	9	59	6	6
Tommy La Stella	L	26	2B	459	45	109	22	3	4	46	5	2
Rafael Lopez	L	27	C	394	41	83	16	1	5	36	1	1
Jorge Soler	R	23	RF	345	51	79	23	3	12	59	3	1
Mike Olt	R	26	3B	423	44	78	17	1	16	49	2	1
Kyle Schwarber	L	22	LF	591	86	125	30	5	21	98	5	2
Matt Szczur	R	25	CF	553	62	127	21	4	4	40	23	9
Christian Villanueva	R	24	3B	543	58	116	33	1	12	57	6	7
Chris Denorfia	R	34	RF	395	55	94	16	3	6	34	9	3
Ryan Sweeney	L	30	CF	266	29	62	13	2	5	26	1	0
Billy McKinney	L	20	CF	475	48	102	18	4	8	40	7	3
Logan Watkins	L	25	2B	516	61	107	20	4	6	43	17	6
Casper Wells	R	30	RF	170	20	33	7	1	4	14	1	1
Stephen Bruno	R	24	2B	344	39	79	17	3	2	30	3	4
David Ross	R	38	C	149	14	26	7	0	6	13	0	1
Junior Lake	R	25	LF	451	51	104	20	3	10	39	15	7
Adron Chambers	L	28	LF	357	37	74	12	2	5	27	8	5
Taylor Teagarden	R	31	C	176	18	31	4	0	6	19	0	0
Chris Valaika	R	29	2B	424	41	91	18	1	8	41	2	2
Chris Coghlan	L	30	LF	430	47	95	22	4	7	37	8	4
Ryan Kalish	L	27	LF	303	35	66	12	3	5	28	10	4
Jonathan Herrera	B	30	2B	221	27	47	5	2	1	15	3	3
Dan Vogelbach	L	22	1B	587	73	129	26	1	16	67	4	6
Jae-Hoon Ha	R	24	CF	491	50	107	20	1	6	42	8	5
Edgar Gonzalez	R	37	2B	66	7	15	3	0	1	2	2	0
Bijan Rademacher	L	24	LF	390	44	85	16	3	7	38	4	6
John Baker	L	34	C	186	12	32	5	0	1	12	0	0
Manny Ramirez	R	43	LF	86	8	18	2	0	2	7	0	0
Jonathan Mota	R	28	1B	293	29	64	11	2	4	26	1	1
Josh Vitters	R	25	LF	398	40	86	17	1	10	39	3	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Kris Bryant	557	9.3%	32.9%	.244	.344	.256	.339	.500	.364
Anthony Rizzo	651	10.8%	20.0%	.224	.299	.269	.358	.493	.367
Starlin Castro	674	5.3%	16.5%	.143	.325	.286	.328	.429	.330
Arismendy Alcantara	645	6.2%	26.5%	.184	.316	.249	.297	.433	.321
Miguel Montero	529	11.0%	21.2%	.127	.289	.240	.333	.367	.304
Javier Baez	650	5.8%	32.6%	.214	.302	.233	.283	.447	.319
Dexter Fowler	526	13.9%	22.2%	.137	.338	.265	.371	.402	.345
Addison Russell	407	6.6%	24.8%	.161	.302	.243	.302	.404	.315
Welington Castillo	417	7.7%	24.2%	.147	.304	.246	.317	.393	.316
Albert Almora	576	3.0%	17.0%	.118	.301	.261	.285	.379	.289
Tommy La Stella	459	8.7%	10.9%	.098	.293	.267	.337	.365	.313
Rafael Lopez	394	8.6%	21.6%	.093	.292	.234	.303	.327	.281
Jorge Soler	345	7.8%	22.3%	.208	.294	.252	.310	.460	.335
Mike Olt	423	9.7%	32.6%	.179	.276	.208	.288	.387	.299
Kyle Schwarber	591	8.3%	25.4%	.193	.283	.234	.299	.427	.318
Matt Szczur	553	6.1%	17.9%	.080	.301	.250	.301	.330	.283
Christian Villanueva	543	5.3%	26.2%	.142	.297	.232	.283	.374	.285
Chris Denorfia	395	7.3%	17.0%	.110	.302	.260	.315	.370	.305
Ryan Sweeney	266	7.1%	15.4%	.132	.288	.255	.311	.387	.306
Billy McKinney	475	7.4%	21.3%	.116	.288	.237	.299	.353	.292
Logan Watkins	516	7.8%	23.1%	.099	.297	.231	.297	.330	.280
Casper Wells	170	8.8%	25.9%	.138	.279	.217	.296	.355	.291
Stephen Bruno	344	4.4%	24.1%	.092	.332	.251	.306	.343	.288
David Ross	149	8.7%	34.2%	.188	.260	.195	.265	.383	.277
Junior Lake	451	4.9%	29.0%	.132	.331	.246	.287	.378	.295
Adron Chambers	357	8.4%	22.4%	.098	.296	.235	.307	.333	.281
Taylor Teagarden	176	8.0%	35.2%	.138	.272	.195	.263	.333	.267
Chris Valaika	424	5.0%	20.8%	.112	.278	.233	.280	.345	.275
Chris Coghlan	430	8.8%	17.9%	.133	.290	.247	.318	.380	.307
Ryan Kalish	303	6.9%	23.8%	.119	.302	.237	.292	.356	.287
Jonathan Herrera	221	6.8%	15.4%	.060	.282	.239	.298	.299	.259
Dan Vogelbach	587	8.3%	21.8%	.144	.289	.244	.308	.388	.306
Jae-Hoon Ha	491	5.3%	22.4%	.088	.295	.235	.281	.323	.269
Edgar Gonzalez	66	3.0%	25.8%	.094	.304	.234	.258	.328	.266
Bijan Rademacher	390	6.2%	24.4%	.120	.301	.237	.290	.357	.285
John Baker	186	9.1%	26.3%	.048	.265	.193	.270	.241	.230
Manny Ramirez	86	4.7%	25.6%	.097	.276	.220	.256	.317	.257
Jonathan Mota	293	4.1%	24.9%	.098	.299	.232	.265	.330	.259
Josh Vitters	398	5.0%	23.9%	.132	.284	.231	.277	.363	.282

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Kris Bryant	557	6.2	127	0	4.3	Evan Longoria
Anthony Rizzo	651	6.4	131	6	4.1	Mo Vaughn
Starlin Castro	674	5.3	106	-4	3.4	Rennie Stennett
Arismendy Alcantara	645	4.8	98	-2	2.4	Mike Young
Miguel Montero	529	4.2	93	-1	2.4	Ed Bailey
Javier Baez	650	4.5	97	-7	2.2	Gary Gaetti
Dexter Fowler	526	5.5	113	-10	2.1	Steve Henderson
Addison Russell	407	4.4	92	2	1.9	Ian Desmond
Welington Castillo	417	4.5	94	-3	1.9	Ronny Paulino
Albert Almora	576	3.8	81	6	1.3	Tony Torcato
Tommy La Stella	459	4.6	93	-2	1.3	Jeff Treadway
Rafael Lopez	394	3.5	73	1	1.0	Alberto Castillo
Jorge Soler	345	5.2	109	-1	1.0	Raul Ibanez
Mike Olt	423	3.8	84	0	0.9	Matt Raleigh
Kyle Schwarber	591	4.5	97	-2	0.9	Paul O’Neill
Matt Szczur	553	3.7	74	2	0.8	Buck Coats
Christian Villanueva	543	3.6	79	2	0.8	Brant Ust
Chris Denorfia	395	4.3	88	3	0.7	Pete Fox
Ryan Sweeney	266	4.4	91	-1	0.7	Terrence Long
Billy McKinney	475	3.8	79	-2	0.5	Trot Nixon
Logan Watkins	516	3.6	73	-2	0.3	Doug Baker
Casper Wells	170	3.6	78	3	0.3	Jeff Guiel
Stephen Bruno	344	3.6	78	-2	0.2	Greg Picart
David Ross	149	3.3	76	-1	0.2	Jim Hegan
Junior Lake	451	3.9	81	2	0.2	Matt Cimo
Adron Chambers	357	3.5	76	4	0.1	Kevin Koslofski
Taylor Teagarden	176	2.9	63	-2	0.0	Dave Duncan
Chris Valaika	424	3.3	71	0	0.0	Keith Johns
Chris Coghlan	430	4.3	91	-5	0.0	Keith Hughes
Ryan Kalish	303	3.8	78	-1	-0.2	Jalal Leach
Jonathan Herrera	221	3.0	65	-1	-0.2	Kevin Castleberry
Dan Vogelbach	587	4.1	90	-2	-0.2	Brant Colamarino
Jae-Hoon Ha	491	3.2	66	-1	-0.3	Donald Morris
Edgar Gonzalez	66	3.3	60	-2	-0.3	Ron Washington
Bijan Rademacher	390	3.4	77	0	-0.4	Dan Ortmeier
John Baker	186	2.2	42	-2	-0.5	Kirt Manwaring
Manny Ramirez	86	2.8	57	-4	-0.7	Brian Jordan
Jonathan Mota	293	3.0	62	0	-1.1	Miguel Quintana
Josh Vitters	398	3.5	74	-8	-1.3	Dave Gibralter

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jon Lester	L	31	31	31	208.7	187	53	17	191	77	72
Kyle Hendricks	R	25	28	28	165.3	115	38	12	164	70	65
Jake Arrieta	R	29	29	28	154.3	146	60	15	137	67	63
Jason Hammel	R	32	25	24	141.0	117	42	16	135	65	61
Travis Wood	L	28	30	30	173.3	137	67	21	170	89	83
C.J. Edwards	R	23	19	19	80.3	74	44	5	71	36	34
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	34	18	17	104.7	88	32	13	104	50	47
Felix Doubront	L	27	27	22	128.3	113	52	14	125	64	60
Eric Jokisch	L	25	27	25	150.0	110	48	18	156	78	73
Carlos Villanueva	R	31	39	10	96.3	88	30	10	92	45	42
Pedro Strop	R	30	64	0	58.3	65	26	4	46	21	20
Neil Ramirez	R	26	61	0	54.0	65	26	5	43	20	19
Justin Grimm	R	26	75	0	70.0	69	29	5	62	30	28
Hector Rondon	R	27	47	0	49.0	46	16	4	44	20	19
Armando Rivero	R	27	38	0	51.0	65	24	6	42	21	20
Blake Parker	R	30	50	0	50.7	58	18	5	44	21	20
Dallas Beeler	R	26	19	19	103.3	57	36	11	112	57	53
Jason Motte	R	33	46	0	44.3	44	13	6	40	19	18
Zac Rosscup	L	27	44	0	43.3	53	28	4	35	19	18
Edwin Jackson	R	31	27	26	146.0	123	55	17	155	82	77
Pierce Johnson	R	24	22	21	102.7	97	63	13	98	58	54
Michael Heesch	L	25	26	0	48.0	51	27	5	42	22	21
Donn Roach	R	25	29	18	113.0	59	51	9	124	64	60
Brian Schlitter	R	29	59	0	63.7	38	21	5	67	31	29
Joe Ortiz	L	24	31	0	41.0	25	10	4	43	20	19
Jacob Turner	R	24	29	23	136.3	91	48	17	152	80	75
Corey Black	R	23	25	24	110.3	99	74	15	108	67	63
Frank Batista	R	26	53	0	59.3	43	30	7	62	34	32
Jonathan Sanchez	L	32	10	9	41.7	35	30	7	45	30	28
Dae-Eun Rhee	R	26	23	21	114.7	63	53	14	128	72	67
Carlos Pimentel	R	25	29	15	96.7	77	56	14	100	61	57
Lendy Castillo	R	26	32	3	53.3	43	40	8	56	37	35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jon Lester	208.7	870	21.5%	6.1%	.287	3.11	3.28	81	86
Kyle Hendricks	165.3	698	16.5%	5.4%	.290	3.54	3.52	93	92
Jake Arrieta	154.3	660	22.1%	9.1%	.282	3.67	3.79	96	99
Jason Hammel	141.0	600	19.5%	7.0%	.284	3.89	3.96	102	104
Travis Wood	173.3	757	18.1%	8.9%	.284	4.31	4.43	113	116
C.J. Edwards	80.3	356	20.8%	12.4%	.288	3.81	3.93	100	103
Tsuyoshi Wada	104.7	450	19.6%	7.1%	.291	4.04	4.11	106	107
Felix Doubront	128.3	562	20.1%	9.3%	.292	4.21	4.11	110	108
Eric Jokisch	150.0	654	16.8%	7.3%	.294	4.38	4.38	115	115
Carlos Villanueva	96.3	411	21.4%	7.3%	.293	3.92	3.60	102	94
Pedro Strop	58.3	247	26.3%	10.5%	.284	3.09	3.27	81	86
Neil Ramirez	54.0	231	28.1%	11.3%	.286	3.17	3.52	83	92
Justin Grimm	70.0	301	22.9%	9.6%	.294	3.60	3.46	94	90
Hector Rondon	49.0	207	22.2%	7.7%	.286	3.49	3.27	91	86
Armando Rivero	51.0	219	29.7%	11.0%	.298	3.53	3.62	92	95
Blake Parker	50.7	214	27.1%	8.4%	.297	3.55	3.29	93	86
Dallas Beeler	103.3	458	12.4%	7.9%	.290	4.62	4.64	121	121
Jason Motte	44.3	186	23.7%	7.0%	.279	3.65	3.89	95	102
Zac Rosscup	43.3	193	27.5%	14.5%	.293	3.74	3.86	98	101
Edwin Jackson	146.0	648	19.0%	8.5%	.307	4.75	4.11	124	107
Pierce Johnson	102.7	469	20.7%	13.4%	.294	4.73	4.97	124	130
Michael Heesch	48.0	213	23.9%	12.7%	.291	3.94	4.21	103	110
Donn Roach	113.0	514	11.5%	9.9%	.297	4.78	4.73	125	124
Brian Schlitter	63.7	279	13.6%	7.5%	.294	4.10	4.03	107	105
Joe Ortiz	41.0	176	14.2%	5.7%	.287	4.17	3.95	109	103
Jacob Turner	136.3	609	14.9%	7.9%	.301	4.95	4.53	129	119
Corey Black	110.3	513	19.3%	14.4%	.293	5.14	5.35	134	140
Frank Batista	59.3	270	15.9%	11.1%	.296	4.85	4.87	127	127
Jonathan Sanchez	41.7	200	17.5%	15.0%	.304	6.05	6.05	158	158
Dae-Eun Rhee	114.7	525	12.0%	10.1%	.294	5.26	5.18	138	135
Carlos Pimentel	96.7	446	17.3%	12.6%	.293	5.31	5.35	139	140
Lendy Castillo	53.3	256	16.8%	15.6%	.298	5.91	5.98	155	156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jon Lester	208.7	8.06	2.29	0.73	121	4.6	Andy Pettitte
Kyle Hendricks	165.3	6.26	2.07	0.65	107	2.7	Bob Tewksbury
Jake Arrieta	154.3	8.52	3.50	0.87	103	2.3	Kip Wells
Jason Hammel	141.0	7.47	2.68	1.02	97	1.7	Greg Harris
Travis Wood	173.3	7.11	3.48	1.09	87	1.1	Don Collins
C.J. Edwards	80.3	8.29	4.93	0.56	99	1.0	Roger Pavlik
Tsuyoshi Wada	104.7	7.56	2.75	1.12	93	1.0	Blaine Beatty
Felix Doubront	128.3	7.93	3.65	0.98	90	1.0	Jimmy Osting
Eric Jokisch	150.0	6.60	2.88	1.08	86	0.8	Lance Davis
Carlos Villanueva	96.3	8.22	2.80	0.93	96	0.8	Mark Leiter
Pedro Strop	58.3	10.03	4.01	0.62	122	0.7	Dwayne Henry
Neil Ramirez	54.0	10.83	4.33	0.83	119	0.6	Hipolito Pichardo
Justin Grimm	70.0	8.87	3.73	0.64	105	0.4	Sal Urso
Hector Rondon	49.0	8.45	2.94	0.73	108	0.3	Francisco Cordero
Armando Rivero	51.0	11.47	4.24	1.06	107	0.3	Dwayne Henry
Blake Parker	50.7	10.30	3.20	0.89	106	0.3	Jeff Austin
Dallas Beeler	103.3	4.97	3.14	0.96	82	0.3	Preston Larrison
Jason Motte	44.3	8.94	2.64	1.22	103	0.2	Blas Minor
Zac Rosscup	43.3	11.02	5.82	0.83	101	0.1	Ricky Pickett
Edwin Jackson	146.0	7.58	3.39	1.05	79	0.1	Cal Eldred
Pierce Johnson	102.7	8.50	5.52	1.14	80	0.1	Ben Howard
Michael Heesch	48.0	9.56	5.06	0.94	96	0.0	Thomas Hart
Donn Roach	113.0	4.70	4.06	0.72	79	-0.1	Sean White
Brian Schlitter	63.7	5.37	2.97	0.71	92	-0.1	Jim Todd
Joe Ortiz	41.0	5.49	2.20	0.88	90	-0.1	Tim Lavigne
Jacob Turner	136.3	6.01	3.17	1.12	76	-0.3	David Pauley
Corey Black	110.3	8.08	6.04	1.22	73	-0.5	Steve Chitren
Frank Batista	59.3	6.53	4.55	1.06	78	-0.7	Matt Smith
Jonathan Sanchez	41.7	7.55	6.47	1.51	62	-0.7	Charlie Puleo
Dae-Eun Rhee	114.7	4.94	4.16	1.10	72	-0.7	Mike Heathcott
Carlos Pimentel	96.7	7.17	5.21	1.30	71	-0.8	Alonso Beltran
Lendy Castillo	53.3	7.26	6.75	1.35	64	-1.1	Tracy Thorpe

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.