2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago AL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington

Batters
“Why do you hate Jorge Soler?” is a reaction zero people expressed via Twitter on Thursday when the author shared the depth-chart image below by way of that same social-media platform. What certain respondents did note, however, is that they’d take the over on Soler’s 1.0 WAR projection. Which, one comment regarding that: due (presumably) to limited playing time in the past, ZiPS only forecasts Soler for 345 plate appearances in 2015. That’s 1.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances — a substantial figure, that, for a player who’s recorded just a half-season’s worth of games above High-A.

Conspicuous by his absence in that same depth-chart image below is third-base prospect Kris Bryant, who receives the club’s highest projected WAR here, according to ZiPS, and the second-highest by Steamer. Whether he’ll be part of the opening-day roster isn’t really a question ZiPS, being a computer model, is prepared to answer. There appears to be some evidence, however, that when he does appear in the majors, he (i.e. Bryant) will be among the club’s very best field players.

Pitchers
Unsurprisingly, given both his track record and also the millions of dollars with which the Cubs have agreed to remunerate him, Jon Lester receives the most promising projection among the club’s starters by some margin. He’s averaged 207 innings and 4.8 wins per year since 2008. ZiPS forecasts a nearly identical season in 2015: 208.2 IP and 4.6 WAR.

Of some interest with regard to the remaining starters is the relative optimism and then pessimism concerning Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, respectively. In the case of Hendricks, perhaps it’s precisely what one ought to expect from a projection system. Despite the fact that he sits at just 88 mph, Hendricks has nevertheless limited both walks and home runs throughout his minor-league career. The strength of his projection (165.1 IP, 2.7 WAR) assumes a continuation of this trend. Arrieta, meanwhile, distinguished himself as one of the game’s top pitchers of 2014, finishing 11th among all pitchers by WAR despite the fact that he compiled too few innings (156.2) to qualify. Probably owing to the influence of his other four major-league seasons during which he wasn’t dominant, ZiPS calls for a more regular season from Arrieta (154.1 IP, 2.3 WAR) than one might otherwise expect in light of his excellent 2014.

Bench/Prospects
While Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia might form a left-field platoon for the Cubs to begin the season, another possibility is that Arismendy Alcantara receives a large share/all of the playing time there, too. ZiPS gives him the fourth-best projection (645 PA, 2.4 WAR) among all Cubs batters. Outfielder Albert Almora, catcher Rafael Lopez, and shortstop Addison Russell have recorded just 14 major-league plate appearances collectively but are all projected to play at least like a competent bench player beginning in 2015. Among pitchers, neither C.J. Edwards nor Tsuyoshi Wada is expected to break spring training in the rotation, but neither would appear to be wholly unqualified for such a role, either.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.