2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs by Carson Cistulli January 23, 2015 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago AL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington Batters “Why do you hate Jorge Soler?” is a reaction zero people expressed via Twitter on Thursday when the author shared the depth-chart image below by way of that same social-media platform. What certain respondents did note, however, is that they’d take the over on Soler’s 1.0 WAR projection. Which, one comment regarding that: due (presumably) to limited playing time in the past, ZiPS only forecasts Soler for 345 plate appearances in 2015. That’s 1.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances — a substantial figure, that, for a player who’s recorded just a half-season’s worth of games above High-A. Conspicuous by his absence in that same depth-chart image below is third-base prospect Kris Bryant, who receives the club’s highest projected WAR here, according to ZiPS, and the second-highest by Steamer. Whether he’ll be part of the opening-day roster isn’t really a question ZiPS, being a computer model, is prepared to answer. There appears to be some evidence, however, that when he does appear in the majors, he (i.e. Bryant) will be among the club’s very best field players. Pitchers Unsurprisingly, given both his track record and also the millions of dollars with which the Cubs have agreed to remunerate him, Jon Lester receives the most promising projection among the club’s starters by some margin. He’s averaged 207 innings and 4.8 wins per year since 2008. ZiPS forecasts a nearly identical season in 2015: 208.2 IP and 4.6 WAR. Of some interest with regard to the remaining starters is the relative optimism and then pessimism concerning Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, respectively. In the case of Hendricks, perhaps it’s precisely what one ought to expect from a projection system. Despite the fact that he sits at just 88 mph, Hendricks has nevertheless limited both walks and home runs throughout his minor-league career. The strength of his projection (165.1 IP, 2.7 WAR) assumes a continuation of this trend. Arrieta, meanwhile, distinguished himself as one of the game’s top pitchers of 2014, finishing 11th among all pitchers by WAR despite the fact that he compiled too few innings (156.2) to qualify. Probably owing to the influence of his other four major-league seasons during which he wasn’t dominant, ZiPS calls for a more regular season from Arrieta (154.1 IP, 2.3 WAR) than one might otherwise expect in light of his excellent 2014. Bench/Prospects While Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia might form a left-field platoon for the Cubs to begin the season, another possibility is that Arismendy Alcantara receives a large share/all of the playing time there, too. ZiPS gives him the fourth-best projection (645 PA, 2.4 WAR) among all Cubs batters. Outfielder Albert Almora, catcher Rafael Lopez, and shortstop Addison Russell have recorded just 14 major-league plate appearances collectively but are all projected to play at least like a competent bench player beginning in 2015. Among pitchers, neither C.J. Edwards nor Tsuyoshi Wada is expected to break spring training in the rotation, but neither would appear to be wholly unqualified for such a role, either. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Kris Bryant R 23 3B 557 91 126 25 4 29 96 10 4 Anthony Rizzo L 25 1B 651 91 153 33 2 30 94 6 5 Starlin Castro R 25 SS 674 75 180 35 5 15 71 12 7 Arismendy Alcantara B 23 2B 645 83 148 34 9 19 79 25 7 Miguel Montero L 31 C 529 46 110 20 1 12 64 0 2 Javier Baez R 22 SS 650 90 140 30 4 30 90 18 7 Dexter Fowler B 29 CF 526 62 118 19 6 10 39 13 6 Addison Russell R 21 SS 407 50 91 18 3 12 44 10 4 Welington Castillo R 28 C 417 38 92 19 0 12 43 1 0 Albert Almora R 21 CF 576 67 144 28 5 9 59 6 6 Tommy La Stella L 26 2B 459 45 109 22 3 4 46 5 2 Rafael Lopez L 27 C 394 41 83 16 1 5 36 1 1 Jorge Soler R 23 RF 345 51 79 23 3 12 59 3 1 Mike Olt R 26 3B 423 44 78 17 1 16 49 2 1 Kyle Schwarber L 22 LF 591 86 125 30 5 21 98 5 2 Matt Szczur R 25 CF 553 62 127 21 4 4 40 23 9 Christian Villanueva R 24 3B 543 58 116 33 1 12 57 6 7 Chris Denorfia R 34 RF 395 55 94 16 3 6 34 9 3 Ryan Sweeney L 30 CF 266 29 62 13 2 5 26 1 0 Billy McKinney L 20 CF 475 48 102 18 4 8 40 7 3 Logan Watkins L 25 2B 516 61 107 20 4 6 43 17 6 Casper Wells R 30 RF 170 20 33 7 1 4 14 1 1 Stephen Bruno R 24 2B 344 39 79 17 3 2 30 3 4 David Ross R 38 C 149 14 26 7 0 6 13 0 1 Junior Lake R 25 LF 451 51 104 20 3 10 39 15 7 Adron Chambers L 28 LF 357 37 74 12 2 5 27 8 5 Taylor Teagarden R 31 C 176 18 31 4 0 6 19 0 0 Chris Valaika R 29 2B 424 41 91 18 1 8 41 2 2 Chris Coghlan L 30 LF 430 47 95 22 4 7 37 8 4 Ryan Kalish L 27 LF 303 35 66 12 3 5 28 10 4 Jonathan Herrera B 30 2B 221 27 47 5 2 1 15 3 3 Dan Vogelbach L 22 1B 587 73 129 26 1 16 67 4 6 Jae-Hoon Ha R 24 CF 491 50 107 20 1 6 42 8 5 Edgar Gonzalez R 37 2B 66 7 15 3 0 1 2 2 0 Bijan Rademacher L 24 LF 390 44 85 16 3 7 38 4 6 John Baker L 34 C 186 12 32 5 0 1 12 0 0 Manny Ramirez R 43 LF 86 8 18 2 0 2 7 0 0 Jonathan Mota R 28 1B 293 29 64 11 2 4 26 1 1 Josh Vitters R 25 LF 398 40 86 17 1 10 39 3 2 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Kris Bryant 557 9.3% 32.9% .244 .344 .256 .339 .500 .364 Anthony Rizzo 651 10.8% 20.0% .224 .299 .269 .358 .493 .367 Starlin Castro 674 5.3% 16.5% .143 .325 .286 .328 .429 .330 Arismendy Alcantara 645 6.2% 26.5% .184 .316 .249 .297 .433 .321 Miguel Montero 529 11.0% 21.2% .127 .289 .240 .333 .367 .304 Javier Baez 650 5.8% 32.6% .214 .302 .233 .283 .447 .319 Dexter Fowler 526 13.9% 22.2% .137 .338 .265 .371 .402 .345 Addison Russell 407 6.6% 24.8% .161 .302 .243 .302 .404 .315 Welington Castillo 417 7.7% 24.2% .147 .304 .246 .317 .393 .316 Albert Almora 576 3.0% 17.0% .118 .301 .261 .285 .379 .289 Tommy La Stella 459 8.7% 10.9% .098 .293 .267 .337 .365 .313 Rafael Lopez 394 8.6% 21.6% .093 .292 .234 .303 .327 .281 Jorge Soler 345 7.8% 22.3% .208 .294 .252 .310 .460 .335 Mike Olt 423 9.7% 32.6% .179 .276 .208 .288 .387 .299 Kyle Schwarber 591 8.3% 25.4% .193 .283 .234 .299 .427 .318 Matt Szczur 553 6.1% 17.9% .080 .301 .250 .301 .330 .283 Christian Villanueva 543 5.3% 26.2% .142 .297 .232 .283 .374 .285 Chris Denorfia 395 7.3% 17.0% .110 .302 .260 .315 .370 .305 Ryan Sweeney 266 7.1% 15.4% .132 .288 .255 .311 .387 .306 Billy McKinney 475 7.4% 21.3% .116 .288 .237 .299 .353 .292 Logan Watkins 516 7.8% 23.1% .099 .297 .231 .297 .330 .280 Casper Wells 170 8.8% 25.9% .138 .279 .217 .296 .355 .291 Stephen Bruno 344 4.4% 24.1% .092 .332 .251 .306 .343 .288 David Ross 149 8.7% 34.2% .188 .260 .195 .265 .383 .277 Junior Lake 451 4.9% 29.0% .132 .331 .246 .287 .378 .295 Adron Chambers 357 8.4% 22.4% .098 .296 .235 .307 .333 .281 Taylor Teagarden 176 8.0% 35.2% .138 .272 .195 .263 .333 .267 Chris Valaika 424 5.0% 20.8% .112 .278 .233 .280 .345 .275 Chris Coghlan 430 8.8% 17.9% .133 .290 .247 .318 .380 .307 Ryan Kalish 303 6.9% 23.8% .119 .302 .237 .292 .356 .287 Jonathan Herrera 221 6.8% 15.4% .060 .282 .239 .298 .299 .259 Dan Vogelbach 587 8.3% 21.8% .144 .289 .244 .308 .388 .306 Jae-Hoon Ha 491 5.3% 22.4% .088 .295 .235 .281 .323 .269 Edgar Gonzalez 66 3.0% 25.8% .094 .304 .234 .258 .328 .266 Bijan Rademacher 390 6.2% 24.4% .120 .301 .237 .290 .357 .285 John Baker 186 9.1% 26.3% .048 .265 .193 .270 .241 .230 Manny Ramirez 86 4.7% 25.6% .097 .276 .220 .256 .317 .257 Jonathan Mota 293 4.1% 24.9% .098 .299 .232 .265 .330 .259 Josh Vitters 398 5.0% 23.9% .132 .284 .231 .277 .363 .282 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Kris Bryant 557 6.2 127 0 4.3 Evan Longoria Anthony Rizzo 651 6.4 131 6 4.1 Mo Vaughn Starlin Castro 674 5.3 106 -4 3.4 Rennie Stennett Arismendy Alcantara 645 4.8 98 -2 2.4 Mike Young Miguel Montero 529 4.2 93 -1 2.4 Ed Bailey Javier Baez 650 4.5 97 -7 2.2 Gary Gaetti Dexter Fowler 526 5.5 113 -10 2.1 Steve Henderson Addison Russell 407 4.4 92 2 1.9 Ian Desmond Welington Castillo 417 4.5 94 -3 1.9 Ronny Paulino Albert Almora 576 3.8 81 6 1.3 Tony Torcato Tommy La Stella 459 4.6 93 -2 1.3 Jeff Treadway Rafael Lopez 394 3.5 73 1 1.0 Alberto Castillo Jorge Soler 345 5.2 109 -1 1.0 Raul Ibanez Mike Olt 423 3.8 84 0 0.9 Matt Raleigh Kyle Schwarber 591 4.5 97 -2 0.9 Paul O’Neill Matt Szczur 553 3.7 74 2 0.8 Buck Coats Christian Villanueva 543 3.6 79 2 0.8 Brant Ust Chris Denorfia 395 4.3 88 3 0.7 Pete Fox Ryan Sweeney 266 4.4 91 -1 0.7 Terrence Long Billy McKinney 475 3.8 79 -2 0.5 Trot Nixon Logan Watkins 516 3.6 73 -2 0.3 Doug Baker Casper Wells 170 3.6 78 3 0.3 Jeff Guiel Stephen Bruno 344 3.6 78 -2 0.2 Greg Picart David Ross 149 3.3 76 -1 0.2 Jim Hegan Junior Lake 451 3.9 81 2 0.2 Matt Cimo Adron Chambers 357 3.5 76 4 0.1 Kevin Koslofski Taylor Teagarden 176 2.9 63 -2 0.0 Dave Duncan Chris Valaika 424 3.3 71 0 0.0 Keith Johns Chris Coghlan 430 4.3 91 -5 0.0 Keith Hughes Ryan Kalish 303 3.8 78 -1 -0.2 Jalal Leach Jonathan Herrera 221 3.0 65 -1 -0.2 Kevin Castleberry Dan Vogelbach 587 4.1 90 -2 -0.2 Brant Colamarino Jae-Hoon Ha 491 3.2 66 -1 -0.3 Donald Morris Edgar Gonzalez 66 3.3 60 -2 -0.3 Ron Washington Bijan Rademacher 390 3.4 77 0 -0.4 Dan Ortmeier John Baker 186 2.2 42 -2 -0.5 Kirt Manwaring Manny Ramirez 86 2.8 57 -4 -0.7 Brian Jordan Jonathan Mota 293 3.0 62 0 -1.1 Miguel Quintana Josh Vitters 398 3.5 74 -8 -1.3 Dave Gibralter *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Jon Lester L 31 31 31 208.7 187 53 17 191 77 72 Kyle Hendricks R 25 28 28 165.3 115 38 12 164 70 65 Jake Arrieta R 29 29 28 154.3 146 60 15 137 67 63 Jason Hammel R 32 25 24 141.0 117 42 16 135 65 61 Travis Wood L 28 30 30 173.3 137 67 21 170 89 83 C.J. Edwards R 23 19 19 80.3 74 44 5 71 36 34 Tsuyoshi Wada L 34 18 17 104.7 88 32 13 104 50 47 Felix Doubront L 27 27 22 128.3 113 52 14 125 64 60 Eric Jokisch L 25 27 25 150.0 110 48 18 156 78 73 Carlos Villanueva R 31 39 10 96.3 88 30 10 92 45 42 Pedro Strop R 30 64 0 58.3 65 26 4 46 21 20 Neil Ramirez R 26 61 0 54.0 65 26 5 43 20 19 Justin Grimm R 26 75 0 70.0 69 29 5 62 30 28 Hector Rondon R 27 47 0 49.0 46 16 4 44 20 19 Armando Rivero R 27 38 0 51.0 65 24 6 42 21 20 Blake Parker R 30 50 0 50.7 58 18 5 44 21 20 Dallas Beeler R 26 19 19 103.3 57 36 11 112 57 53 Jason Motte R 33 46 0 44.3 44 13 6 40 19 18 Zac Rosscup L 27 44 0 43.3 53 28 4 35 19 18 Edwin Jackson R 31 27 26 146.0 123 55 17 155 82 77 Pierce Johnson R 24 22 21 102.7 97 63 13 98 58 54 Michael Heesch L 25 26 0 48.0 51 27 5 42 22 21 Donn Roach R 25 29 18 113.0 59 51 9 124 64 60 Brian Schlitter R 29 59 0 63.7 38 21 5 67 31 29 Joe Ortiz L 24 31 0 41.0 25 10 4 43 20 19 Jacob Turner R 24 29 23 136.3 91 48 17 152 80 75 Corey Black R 23 25 24 110.3 99 74 15 108 67 63 Frank Batista R 26 53 0 59.3 43 30 7 62 34 32 Jonathan Sanchez L 32 10 9 41.7 35 30 7 45 30 28 Dae-Eun Rhee R 26 23 21 114.7 63 53 14 128 72 67 Carlos Pimentel R 25 29 15 96.7 77 56 14 100 61 57 Lendy Castillo R 26 32 3 53.3 43 40 8 56 37 35 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Jon Lester 208.7 870 21.5% 6.1% .287 3.11 3.28 81 86 Kyle Hendricks 165.3 698 16.5% 5.4% .290 3.54 3.52 93 92 Jake Arrieta 154.3 660 22.1% 9.1% .282 3.67 3.79 96 99 Jason Hammel 141.0 600 19.5% 7.0% .284 3.89 3.96 102 104 Travis Wood 173.3 757 18.1% 8.9% .284 4.31 4.43 113 116 C.J. Edwards 80.3 356 20.8% 12.4% .288 3.81 3.93 100 103 Tsuyoshi Wada 104.7 450 19.6% 7.1% .291 4.04 4.11 106 107 Felix Doubront 128.3 562 20.1% 9.3% .292 4.21 4.11 110 108 Eric Jokisch 150.0 654 16.8% 7.3% .294 4.38 4.38 115 115 Carlos Villanueva 96.3 411 21.4% 7.3% .293 3.92 3.60 102 94 Pedro Strop 58.3 247 26.3% 10.5% .284 3.09 3.27 81 86 Neil Ramirez 54.0 231 28.1% 11.3% .286 3.17 3.52 83 92 Justin Grimm 70.0 301 22.9% 9.6% .294 3.60 3.46 94 90 Hector Rondon 49.0 207 22.2% 7.7% .286 3.49 3.27 91 86 Armando Rivero 51.0 219 29.7% 11.0% .298 3.53 3.62 92 95 Blake Parker 50.7 214 27.1% 8.4% .297 3.55 3.29 93 86 Dallas Beeler 103.3 458 12.4% 7.9% .290 4.62 4.64 121 121 Jason Motte 44.3 186 23.7% 7.0% .279 3.65 3.89 95 102 Zac Rosscup 43.3 193 27.5% 14.5% .293 3.74 3.86 98 101 Edwin Jackson 146.0 648 19.0% 8.5% .307 4.75 4.11 124 107 Pierce Johnson 102.7 469 20.7% 13.4% .294 4.73 4.97 124 130 Michael Heesch 48.0 213 23.9% 12.7% .291 3.94 4.21 103 110 Donn Roach 113.0 514 11.5% 9.9% .297 4.78 4.73 125 124 Brian Schlitter 63.7 279 13.6% 7.5% .294 4.10 4.03 107 105 Joe Ortiz 41.0 176 14.2% 5.7% .287 4.17 3.95 109 103 Jacob Turner 136.3 609 14.9% 7.9% .301 4.95 4.53 129 119 Corey Black 110.3 513 19.3% 14.4% .293 5.14 5.35 134 140 Frank Batista 59.3 270 15.9% 11.1% .296 4.85 4.87 127 127 Jonathan Sanchez 41.7 200 17.5% 15.0% .304 6.05 6.05 158 158 Dae-Eun Rhee 114.7 525 12.0% 10.1% .294 5.26 5.18 138 135 Carlos Pimentel 96.7 446 17.3% 12.6% .293 5.31 5.35 139 140 Lendy Castillo 53.3 256 16.8% 15.6% .298 5.91 5.98 155 156 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Jon Lester 208.7 8.06 2.29 0.73 121 4.6 Andy Pettitte Kyle Hendricks 165.3 6.26 2.07 0.65 107 2.7 Bob Tewksbury Jake Arrieta 154.3 8.52 3.50 0.87 103 2.3 Kip Wells Jason Hammel 141.0 7.47 2.68 1.02 97 1.7 Greg Harris Travis Wood 173.3 7.11 3.48 1.09 87 1.1 Don Collins C.J. Edwards 80.3 8.29 4.93 0.56 99 1.0 Roger Pavlik Tsuyoshi Wada 104.7 7.56 2.75 1.12 93 1.0 Blaine Beatty Felix Doubront 128.3 7.93 3.65 0.98 90 1.0 Jimmy Osting Eric Jokisch 150.0 6.60 2.88 1.08 86 0.8 Lance Davis Carlos Villanueva 96.3 8.22 2.80 0.93 96 0.8 Mark Leiter Pedro Strop 58.3 10.03 4.01 0.62 122 0.7 Dwayne Henry Neil Ramirez 54.0 10.83 4.33 0.83 119 0.6 Hipolito Pichardo Justin Grimm 70.0 8.87 3.73 0.64 105 0.4 Sal Urso Hector Rondon 49.0 8.45 2.94 0.73 108 0.3 Francisco Cordero Armando Rivero 51.0 11.47 4.24 1.06 107 0.3 Dwayne Henry Blake Parker 50.7 10.30 3.20 0.89 106 0.3 Jeff Austin Dallas Beeler 103.3 4.97 3.14 0.96 82 0.3 Preston Larrison Jason Motte 44.3 8.94 2.64 1.22 103 0.2 Blas Minor Zac Rosscup 43.3 11.02 5.82 0.83 101 0.1 Ricky Pickett Edwin Jackson 146.0 7.58 3.39 1.05 79 0.1 Cal Eldred Pierce Johnson 102.7 8.50 5.52 1.14 80 0.1 Ben Howard Michael Heesch 48.0 9.56 5.06 0.94 96 0.0 Thomas Hart Donn Roach 113.0 4.70 4.06 0.72 79 -0.1 Sean White Brian Schlitter 63.7 5.37 2.97 0.71 92 -0.1 Jim Todd Joe Ortiz 41.0 5.49 2.20 0.88 90 -0.1 Tim Lavigne Jacob Turner 136.3 6.01 3.17 1.12 76 -0.3 David Pauley Corey Black 110.3 8.08 6.04 1.22 73 -0.5 Steve Chitren Frank Batista 59.3 6.53 4.55 1.06 78 -0.7 Matt Smith Jonathan Sanchez 41.7 7.55 6.47 1.51 62 -0.7 Charlie Puleo Dae-Eun Rhee 114.7 4.94 4.16 1.10 72 -0.7 Mike Heathcott Carlos Pimentel 96.7 7.17 5.21 1.30 71 -0.8 Alonso Beltran Lendy Castillo 53.3 7.26 6.75 1.35 64 -1.1 Tracy Thorpe *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.