2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
On the strength of his five wins, Jose Abreu was worth approximately $30 million in 2014. Should he regress a little but still manage the 3.5 WAR projected here by ZiPS, Abreu will have produced approximately $50 million in value over the first two years of the six-year, $68 million contract he signed in October of last year. Even if he ultimately opts in to arbitration (which he’s permitted to do — and almost certainly will do, at this rate — under the terms of his contract), the probability remains that Abreu will have provided an excellent return on investment.

Elsewhere around the field, it’s more difficult to find such optimism. As noted by Jeff Sullivan on Monday, the White Sox’ rate above average only at first base and DH according to the Steamer projections. Indeed, ZiPS paints a similar portrait — with the exception of center field Adam Eaton, perhaps, for whose 2015 season it’s decidedly more encouraging.

Pitchers
With the recent addition of Jeff Samardzija to the Sox’ rotation, the club now features three starters forecast to produce something in the vicinity of 12 wins collectively — which is to say, slightly better than the average total WAR figures produced by whole starting rotations in 2014. After that triumvirate, however, there’s a significant dearth of useful options, it appears.

The top-five relievers for the White Sox are projected to produce a 2.0 WAR as a group according to ZiPS. In a very related development, free-agent signings Zach Duke and David Robertson are projected to produce about 1.5 WAR together. Featuring below-average velocity for a reliever but also a split-finger pitch he threw over 50% of the time in 2014, Zach Putnam would appear to be the most qualified candidate for a seventh-inning role in front of Duke and Robertson.

Bench/Prospects
Ignoring for a moment the effect it might have both on his development and also his free-agent timetable, it seems as though installing Carlos Rodon into the rotation at the beginning of the season might allow the club to win an extra game or two by the end of the year. He’s the only White Sox starter (besides the top three mentioned above) projected to record better than replacement-level value. With regard to field players, ZiPS continues to see enough in the minor-league resume of outfielder Jordan Danks to project him as a useful bench player.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

***

Batters, Assorted Other

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.