2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
On the strength of his five wins, Jose Abreu was worth approximately $30 million in 2014. Should he regress a little but still manage the 3.5 WAR projected here by ZiPS, Abreu will have produced approximately $50 million in value over the first two years of the six-year, $68 million contract he signed in October of last year. Even if he ultimately opts in to arbitration (which he’s permitted to do — and almost certainly will do, at this rate — under the terms of his contract), the probability remains that Abreu will have provided an excellent return on investment.

Elsewhere around the field, it’s more difficult to find such optimism. As noted by Jeff Sullivan on Monday, the White Sox’ rate above average only at first base and DH according to the Steamer projections. Indeed, ZiPS paints a similar portrait — with the exception of center field Adam Eaton, perhaps, for whose 2015 season it’s decidedly more encouraging.

Pitchers
With the recent addition of Jeff Samardzija to the Sox’ rotation, the club now features three starters forecast to produce something in the vicinity of 12 wins collectively — which is to say, slightly better than the average total WAR figures produced by whole starting rotations in 2014. After that triumvirate, however, there’s a significant dearth of useful options, it appears.

The top-five relievers for the White Sox are projected to produce a 2.0 WAR as a group according to ZiPS. In a very related development, free-agent signings Zach Duke and David Robertson are projected to produce about 1.5 WAR together. Featuring below-average velocity for a reliever but also a split-finger pitch he threw over 50% of the time in 2014, Zach Putnam would appear to be the most qualified candidate for a seventh-inning role in front of Duke and Robertson.

Bench/Prospects
Ignoring for a moment the effect it might have both on his development and also his free-agent timetable, it seems as though installing Carlos Rodon into the rotation at the beginning of the season might allow the club to win an extra game or two by the end of the year. He’s the only White Sox starter (besides the top three mentioned above) projected to record better than replacement-level value. With regard to field players, ZiPS continues to see enough in the minor-league resume of outfielder Jordan Danks to project him as a useful bench player.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Abreu	R	28	1B	582	83	149	28	1	33	88	3	4
Adam Eaton	L	26	CF	653	83	158	28	7	5	50	26	12
Alexei Ramirez	R	33	SS	641	71	163	32	2	10	62	19	6
Melky Cabrera	B	30	LF	598	81	163	29	4	14	67	9	4
Adam LaRoche	L	35	1B	494	61	102	17	1	25	74	2	0
Tyler Flowers	R	29	C	338	35	71	13	1	13	36	1	1
Jordan Danks	L	28	CF	466	53	96	15	1	14	45	9	3
Kevan Smith	R	27	C	459	48	97	20	1	11	47	1	2
Conor Gillaspie	L	27	3B	522	57	124	23	4	12	57	1	3
Carlos Sanchez	B	23	2B	582	57	135	20	4	6	44	15	6
Tyler Saladino	R	25	SS	456	49	93	15	3	9	41	14	5
Dayan Viciedo	R	26	RF	570	66	134	24	3	22	71	0	1
Trayce Thompson	R	24	CF	594	68	109	24	4	20	63	15	5
Matt Davidson	R	24	3B	576	62	111	21	1	20	61	1	1
Leury Garcia	B	24	3B	320	31	70	9	3	3	19	21	5
Avisail Garcia	R	24	RF	433	50	109	13	4	13	55	9	5
Rob Brantly	L	25	C	433	38	95	18	1	5	37	0	1
Micah Johnson	L	24	2B	544	58	126	16	6	8	44	31	18
Rangel Ravelo	R	23	1B	525	60	121	27	2	11	54	8	5
Jeff Keppinger	R	35	3B	269	27	69	9	1	4	25	0	0
Andy Wilkins	L	26	1B	562	68	126	27	1	24	75	2	2
Adrian Nieto	B	25	C	285	28	54	11	0	6	23	2	2
Michael Taylor	R	29	RF	522	56	106	23	1	12	50	7	2
Christian Marrero	L	28	1B	337	36	64	14	2	9	33	5	2
Juan Diaz	L	26	SS	520	51	111	21	1	9	47	4	2
Tony Campana	L	29	CF	436	47	93	9	4	1	22	27	9
Tim Anderson	R	22	SS	491	53	108	16	4	9	40	13	9
Dan Black	B	27	1B	494	55	103	20	1	14	53	4	2
J.B. Shuck	L	28	LF	512	58	118	17	4	4	41	9	5
Brennan Boesch	L	30	RF	389	44	88	17	3	14	46	6	2
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	29	LF	416	45	76	12	0	10	41	2	1
Courtney Hawkins	R	21	LF	495	55	83	16	2	22	62	8	4
Jared Mitchell	L	26	LF	484	52	77	11	3	15	43	12	7
Paul Konerko	R	39	1B	318	25	68	11	0	7	34	0	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Abreu	582	9.6%	18.6%	.252	.310	.292	.371	.544	.389
Adam Eaton	653	8.9%	17.0%	.099	.331	.274	.354	.373	.327
Alexei Ramirez	641	3.9%	11.2%	.109	.291	.270	.303	.379	.302
Melky Cabrera	598	6.7%	12.0%	.144	.318	.296	.342	.440	.342
Adam LaRoche	494	12.8%	23.9%	.221	.268	.241	.336	.462	.342
Tyler Flowers	338	6.5%	33.4%	.175	.317	.231	.294	.406	.310
Jordan Danks	466	9.7%	30.7%	.143	.314	.232	.308	.375	.303
Kevan Smith	459	6.1%	21.8%	.131	.277	.232	.290	.363	.289
Conor Gillaspie	522	7.7%	16.7%	.141	.295	.261	.319	.402	.313
Carlos Sanchez	582	5.3%	17.9%	.087	.301	.253	.297	.340	.281
Tyler Saladino	456	7.9%	23.0%	.118	.281	.227	.294	.345	.287
Dayan Viciedo	570	5.8%	20.9%	.182	.286	.254	.302	.436	.321
Trayce Thompson	594	7.9%	35.0%	.172	.285	.204	.272	.376	.289
Matt Davidson	576	8.0%	33.2%	.161	.293	.214	.286	.375	.293
Leury Garcia	320	4.7%	27.5%	.080	.322	.235	.273	.315	.264
Avisail Garcia	433	4.6%	24.0%	.148	.330	.269	.309	.417	.319
Rob Brantly	433	5.1%	18.9%	.086	.280	.235	.275	.321	.264
Micah Johnson	544	5.9%	18.9%	.104	.302	.253	.299	.357	.287
Rangel Ravelo	525	7.8%	17.9%	.136	.296	.256	.319	.392	.313
Jeff Keppinger	269	4.8%	7.8%	.092	.284	.275	.310	.367	.297
Andy Wilkins	562	6.6%	24.2%	.195	.281	.242	.294	.437	.318
Adrian Nieto	285	8.4%	32.6%	.113	.304	.212	.283	.325	.272
Michael Taylor	522	9.4%	23.6%	.132	.282	.228	.307	.360	.300
Christian Marrero	337	11.0%	23.4%	.153	.263	.218	.304	.371	.298
Juan Diaz	520	4.8%	29.4%	.103	.310	.227	.266	.330	.264
Tony Campana	436	5.7%	22.5%	.050	.304	.232	.280	.282	.255
Tim Anderson	491	3.7%	25.5%	.111	.302	.235	.276	.346	.275
Dan Black	494	8.9%	25.5%	.144	.290	.233	.302	.377	.302
J.B. Shuck	512	7.2%	9.2%	.079	.272	.254	.307	.333	.284
Brennan Boesch	389	5.7%	22.6%	.180	.281	.243	.288	.423	.311
Matt Tuiasosopo	416	10.8%	30.0%	.115	.286	.209	.301	.324	.286
Courtney Hawkins	495	7.3%	42.4%	.191	.276	.185	.251	.376	.277
Jared Mitchell	484	9.9%	43.0%	.147	.304	.182	.272	.329	.269
Paul Konerko	318	6.3%	17.6%	.110	.264	.234	.289	.344	.282

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Abreu	582	7.6	147	-4	3.5	Willie Horton
Adam Eaton	653	5.0	100	1	2.8	Kenny Lofton
Alexei Ramirez	641	4.4	85	1	2.0	Bill Russell
Melky Cabrera	598	5.8	113	-4	1.7	Shannon Stewart
Adam LaRoche	494	5.6	116	1	1.5	Robin Ventura
Tyler Flowers	338	4.2	89	-1	1.3	Tim Glass
Jordan Danks	466	4.1	86	3	1.3	Kurt Airoso
Kevan Smith	459	3.6	78	1	1.3	Blake Barthol
Conor Gillaspie	522	4.6	96	-4	1.1	Scott Cooper
Carlos Sanchez	582	3.7	74	6	0.9	Martin Prado
Tyler Saladino	456	3.6	74	1	0.8	Raul Rodarte
Dayan Viciedo	570	4.7	99	-5	0.4	Scott Thorman
Trayce Thompson	594	3.6	75	0	0.4	Chad Hermansen
Matt Davidson	576	3.7	79	-2	0.4	Jared Sandberg
Leury Garcia	320	3.4	61	6	0.4	Mike Jirschele
Avisail Garcia	433	4.7	97	-3	0.3	David Green
Rob Brantly	433	3.1	63	1	0.2	Jorge Fabregas
Micah Johnson	544	3.8	79	-3	0.2	Herman Iribarren
Rangel Ravelo	525	4.5	94	0	0.1	Juan Tejeda
Jeff Keppinger	269	4.2	85	-3	0.1	Jim Davenport
Andy Wilkins	562	4.5	97	-2	0.0	Andy Marte
Adrian Nieto	285	3.1	66	-3	0.0	David Ross
Michael Taylor	522	3.9	82	0	0.0	Derrick White
Christian Marrero	337	3.9	84	2	0.0	Michael Tullier
Juan Diaz	520	3.1	62	0	-0.2	Greg Porter
Tony Campana	436	3.0	55	5	-0.2	David Hulse
Tim Anderson	491	3.3	69	-5	-0.4	Chris Moritz
Dan Black	494	4.0	85	0	-0.4	Paul Torres
J.B. Shuck	512	3.7	76	1	-0.5	Ken Ramos
Brennan Boesch	389	4.4	92	-9	-0.7	Mark Saccomanno
Matt Tuiasosopo	416	3.3	72	-1	-0.7	Kurt Airoso
Courtney Hawkins	495	3.1	69	3	-0.7	Keith Kimsey
Jared Mitchell	484	2.9	64	3	-0.9	Tony Beal
Paul Konerko	318	3.5	73	-3	-1.1	Todd Zeile

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Chris Sale	L	26	28	28	189.7	209	44	18	161	65	61
Jeff Samardzija	R	30	30	30	194.0	197	52	24	187	90	84
Jose Quintana	L	26	32	32	190.0	151	54	17	193	88	82
Carlos Rodon	L	22	21	21	110.7	125	69	15	98	58	54
David Robertson	R	30	64	0	61.0	83	21	6	48	21	20
Zach Putnam	R	27	55	0	61.0	54	26	5	56	27	25
Zach Duke	L	32	61	0	53.3	59	18	6	49	24	22
Dan Jennings	L	28	59	0	58.0	56	23	6	57	27	25
Nate Jones	R	29	37	0	40.3	43	16	4	37	18	17
Jake Petricka	R	27	68	0	72.3	54	34	6	72	35	33
Matt Lindstrom	R	35	48	0	45.0	32	16	4	49	24	22
Eric Surkamp	L	27	38	13	92.0	74	33	15	100	56	52
Ronald Belisario	R	32	66	0	64.7	50	25	6	67	34	32
Matt Zaleski	R	33	13	8	48.3	33	18	7	56	32	30
Javy Guerra	R	29	49	0	56.7	44	26	6	59	32	30
Daniel Webb	R	25	52	0	64.3	54	41	6	63	36	34
Michael Ynoa	R	23	28	8	56.0	47	33	8	59	36	34
John Danks	L	30	23	23	133.7	84	51	23	151	87	81
Joe Savery	L	29	43	0	44.7	36	21	6	47	27	25
Onelki Garcia	L	25	21	5	32.0	28	27	4	33	22	21
Scott Carroll	R	30	24	15	94.0	50	39	13	110	62	58
Felipe Paulino	R	31	8	8	37.0	31	21	8	42	28	26
Chris Beck	R	24	26	26	139.3	70	49	21	167	92	86
Erik Johnson	R	25	24	24	120.3	82	60	17	135	80	75
Henry Rodriguez	R	28	31	0	31.3	37	39	4	27	22	21
Raul Fernandez	R	25	40	0	41.3	33	27	7	45	29	27
Frankie Montas	R	22	19	19	84.3	65	48	15	95	61	57
Maikel Cleto	R	26	47	3	70.3	71	54	12	71	49	46
Hector Noesi	R	28	30	22	138.7	94	52	27	160	96	90
Tommy Hanson	R	28	18	17	89.0	71	43	19	104	66	62
Charlie Leesman	L	28	21	18	86.3	66	55	16	101	66	62
Daniel McCutchen	R	32	25	8	66.3	46	25	19	84	56	52

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Chris Sale	189.7	774	27.0%	5.7%	.291	2.89	3.20	71	78
Jeff Samardzija	194.0	821	24.0%	6.3%	.302	3.90	3.80	95	93
Jose Quintana	190.0	817	18.5%	6.6%	.298	3.88	3.79	95	93
Carlos Rodon	110.7	499	25.0%	13.8%	.294	4.39	4.93	107	121
David Robertson	61.0	252	32.9%	8.3%	.298	2.95	2.94	72	72
Zach Putnam	61.0	265	20.4%	9.8%	.287	3.69	3.92	90	96
Zach Duke	53.3	227	26.0%	7.9%	.301	3.71	3.55	91	87
Dan Jennings	58.0	254	22.0%	9.1%	.304	3.88	3.95	95	97
Nate Jones	40.3	174	24.7%	9.2%	.300	3.79	3.69	93	90
Jake Petricka	72.3	323	16.7%	10.5%	.291	4.11	4.26	101	104
Matt Lindstrom	45.0	200	16.0%	8.0%	.308	4.40	4.21	108	103
Eric Surkamp	92.0	409	18.1%	8.1%	.302	5.09	5.06	125	124
Ronald Belisario	64.7	286	17.5%	8.7%	.303	4.45	4.03	109	98
Matt Zaleski	48.3	219	15.1%	8.2%	.312	5.59	5.23	137	128
Javy Guerra	56.7	255	17.2%	10.2%	.303	4.76	4.60	116	112
Daniel Webb	64.3	297	18.2%	13.8%	.295	4.76	4.84	116	118
Michael Ynoa	56.0	260	18.1%	12.7%	.302	5.46	5.40	134	132
John Danks	133.7	603	13.9%	8.5%	.291	5.45	5.58	133	137
Joe Savery	44.7	202	17.8%	10.4%	.299	5.04	4.96	123	121
Onelki Garcia	32.0	156	17.9%	17.3%	.309	5.91	6.03	145	148
Scott Carroll	94.0	431	11.6%	9.0%	.302	5.55	5.55	136	136
Felipe Paulino	37.0	174	17.8%	12.1%	.304	6.32	6.35	155	155
Chris Beck	139.3	634	11.0%	7.7%	.300	5.56	5.51	136	135
Erik Johnson	120.3	556	14.8%	10.8%	.303	5.61	5.51	137	135
Henry Rodriguez	31.3	160	23.1%	24.4%	.292	6.03	6.48	148	158
Raul Fernandez	41.3	196	16.8%	13.8%	.302	5.88	6.13	144	150
Frankie Montas	84.3	396	16.4%	12.1%	.305	6.08	6.04	149	148
Maikel Cleto	70.3	336	21.1%	16.1%	.306	5.89	6.06	144	148
Hector Noesi	138.7	628	15.0%	8.3%	.295	5.84	5.69	143	139
Tommy Hanson	89.0	414	17.1%	10.4%	.307	6.27	6.04	153	148
Charlie Leesman	86.3	415	15.9%	13.3%	.311	6.46	6.31	158	154
Daniel McCutchen	66.3	308	14.9%	8.1%	.304	7.06	6.95	173	170

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale	189.7	9.92	2.09	0.85	142	5.8	Tom Glavine
Jeff Samardzija	194.0	9.14	2.41	1.11	105	3.4	Pedro Astacio
Jose Quintana	190.0	7.15	2.56	0.81	106	3.4	Mark Thurmond
Carlos Rodon	110.7	10.16	5.61	1.22	93	1.2	Billy Wagner
David Robertson	61.0	12.25	3.10	0.89	139	1.1	Darren Holmes
Zach Putnam	61.0	7.97	3.84	0.74	111	0.5	Mark Acre
Zach Duke	53.3	9.96	3.04	1.01	111	0.4	Mike Stanton
Dan Jennings	58.0	8.69	3.57	0.93	106	0.4	Juan Agosto
Nate Jones	40.3	9.60	3.57	0.89	108	0.3	Jason Bulger
Jake Petricka	72.3	6.72	4.23	0.75	100	0.2	Horacio Pina
Matt Lindstrom	45.0	6.40	3.20	0.80	93	0.0	Fred Gladding
Eric Surkamp	92.0	7.24	3.23	1.47	81	-0.1	Ryan O’Malley
Ronald Belisario	64.7	6.96	3.48	0.83	92	-0.1	Marc Wilkins
Matt Zaleski	48.3	6.15	3.35	1.30	73	-0.3	Chris Nichting
Javy Guerra	56.7	6.98	4.13	0.95	86	-0.3	Jake Robbins
Daniel Webb	64.3	7.56	5.74	0.84	86	-0.3	Heathcliff Slocumb
Michael Ynoa	56.0	7.55	5.30	1.29	75	-0.4	Glendon Rusch
John Danks	133.7	5.65	3.43	1.55	75	-0.4	Don Collins
Joe Savery	44.7	7.25	4.23	1.21	81	-0.4	Ken Vining
Onelki Garcia	32.0	7.88	7.59	1.13	70	-0.4	Bob Weiland
Scott Carroll	94.0	4.79	3.73	1.24	74	-0.5	Rick Rodriguez
Felipe Paulino	37.0	7.54	5.11	1.95	65	-0.5	Charlie Puleo
Chris Beck	139.3	4.52	3.17	1.36	74	-0.6	Luis Mendoza
Erik Johnson	120.3	6.13	4.49	1.27	73	-0.6	Brian Moehler
Henry Rodriguez	31.3	10.64	11.21	1.15	68	-0.7	Eric Cammack
Raul Fernandez	41.3	7.19	5.88	1.53	70	-0.8	Brad Tweedlie
Frankie Montas	84.3	6.94	5.12	1.60	67	-0.9	Matt Goodson
Maikel Cleto	70.3	9.09	6.91	1.54	70	-1.2	Orlando Roman
Hector Noesi	138.7	6.10	3.37	1.75	70	-1.2	Rusty Richards
Tommy Hanson	89.0	7.18	4.35	1.92	65	-1.2	Giovanni Carrara
Charlie Leesman	86.3	6.88	5.74	1.67	64	-1.4	Steve Smyth
Daniel McCutchen	66.3	6.24	3.39	2.58	58	-1.8	Jeff Harris

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.