2015 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
For those who haven’t dedicated much time of late to the study of the Colorado Rockies, finding that ZiPS projects outfielder Carlos Gonzalez for fewer than two wins in 2015 might be a surprise. It’s less surprising, of course, in light of Gonzalez’s 2014 season, during which he recorded a -0.3 WAR in 281 plate appearances. The cause of that uncharacteristically poor performance was largely a BABIP about 60 points lower than his career average. The cause of his limited playing time was some combination of a damaged patella tendon, a finger tumor, a calf contusion, and a sprained ankle. It’s reasonable to assume that there was some interaction between the injuries and the deflated offensive numbers.

With regard to how Colorado might best deploy their other three outfielders, ZiPS’ computer math would appear to advise a platoon of Charlie Blackmon and Drew Stubbs, with Corey Dickerson occupying left field by himself. Blessed with less athleticism than Gonzalez, Dickerson nevertheless features a similar offensive approach, dependent upon power on contact, but with something less than ideal plate discipline.

Pitchers
Clubs received an average of about 11-12 wins from their starting pitchers in 2014, while Rockies starters combined for just a collective 8.6 WAR. The 2015 rotation appears likely to skew more towards that latter figure than the former. Among that group only Tyler Matzek is expected to produce a park-adjusted ERA better than league average (and then only slightly).

With regard to ties in sports, Navy football coach Eddie Erdelatz is known for having suggested that they’re like “kissing your sister.” Being asked to meditate on the Rockies bullpen isn’t an altogether different experience than that. Although it’s probably more like attempting to discuss the Rockies bullpen with your sister, and then your sister is like, “Why are doing this? Do you hate your own sister?”

Bench/Prospects
Were one interested in departing from this post with some manner of optimism, one could do so by drawing his or her attention to the projections for outfielder David Dahl and right-hander Jon Gray. The latter’s encouraging forecast isn’t entirely a surprise. A third-overall pick from the 2013 draft, Gray has had almost uniform success in affiliated baseball. Dahl, however — enters just his age-21 season and has never played above High-A — receives a projection of almost two wins. Largely on the basis, that, of an above-average defensive profile in center field.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Troy Tulowitzki	R	30	SS	457	66	125	23	2	23	70	3	2
Nolan Arenado	R	24	3B	568	59	152	38	3	16	67	2	2
Carlos Gonzalez	L	29	LF	423	58	107	22	4	20	66	13	3
David Dahl	L	21	CF	467	46	119	26	6	12	48	15	5
Corey Dickerson	L	26	LF	542	68	144	31	9	22	76	9	8
Drew Stubbs	R	30	CF	489	69	117	21	3	14	51	22	5
Michael McKenry	R	30	C	248	26	61	13	0	10	35	1	2
Josh Rutledge	R	26	SS	526	62	133	27	6	11	54	11	4
DJ LeMahieu	R	26	2B	573	55	151	23	6	5	48	14	9
Wilin Rosario	R	26	C	457	53	117	23	1	19	67	3	2
Justin Morneau	L	34	1B	521	56	138	28	2	16	81	0	1
Cristhian Adames	B	23	SS	545	50	137	22	5	3	43	13	10
Rosell Herrera	B	22	SS	459	48	121	18	1	9	44	14	12
Dustin Garneau	R	27	C	351	32	75	17	2	8	35	3	4
Charlie Blackmon	L	28	RF	567	64	145	28	4	14	61	19	6
Jason Pridie	L	31	CF	409	42	98	15	4	10	43	12	3
Audry Perez	R	26	C	309	28	79	14	0	6	33	0	1
Trevor Story	R	22	SS	519	50	103	24	5	12	51	17	4
Brandon Barnes	R	29	RF	428	49	104	24	3	9	46	10	7
Angelys Nina	R	26	2B	476	45	122	19	4	7	46	11	9
Charlie Culberson	R	26	3B	438	47	105	21	4	10	59	9	5
Taylor Featherston	R	25	2B	516	51	120	26	5	10	53	11	5
Tom Murphy	R	24	C	244	26	51	11	1	9	30	2	2
Rafael Ynoa	B	27	3B	543	55	134	27	4	4	49	10	8
Ben Paulsen	L	27	1B	535	55	124	27	5	17	65	2	4
Jayson Langfels	R	26	3B	385	35	76	11	2	6	32	9	6
Matt McBride	R	30	RF	331	36	85	20	2	10	44	0	1
Ryan Casteel	R	24	1B	454	46	107	22	2	12	48	3	2
David Kandilas	R	24	RF	401	38	88	16	4	5	34	14	6
Kyle Parker	R	25	RF	548	56	133	23	3	15	62	3	3
Chris O’Dowd	B	24	C	330	28	73	13	2	3	27	14	6
Drew Garcia	B	29	SS	382	31	78	18	2	4	33	4	3
Tim Smalling	R	27	LF	311	28	67	16	2	3	25	4	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki	457	10.7%	14.9%	.240	.326	.313	.389	.553	.402
Nolan Arenado	568	5.1%	12.9%	.175	.306	.288	.327	.463	.341
Carlos Gonzalez	423	9.0%	22.9%	.236	.327	.281	.348	.517	.372
David Dahl	467	4.1%	20.6%	.167	.318	.268	.299	.435	.323
Corey Dickerson	542	6.8%	20.7%	.231	.331	.289	.338	.520	.366
Drew Stubbs	489	7.8%	28.0%	.155	.349	.264	.323	.419	.331
Michael McKenry	248	8.9%	21.4%	.193	.319	.275	.344	.468	.352
Josh Rutledge	526	5.3%	20.7%	.149	.334	.276	.324	.425	.328
DJ LeMahieu	573	5.2%	15.7%	.095	.332	.284	.323	.379	.302
Wilin Rosario	457	4.6%	21.4%	.191	.308	.271	.304	.462	.330
Justin Morneau	521	6.9%	13.2%	.170	.310	.292	.345	.462	.348
Cristhian Adames	545	5.5%	17.8%	.083	.338	.278	.321	.361	.292
Rosell Herrera	459	6.3%	19.8%	.111	.344	.285	.331	.396	.318
Dustin Garneau	351	6.8%	17.4%	.143	.268	.237	.301	.380	.299
Charlie Blackmon	567	5.1%	16.4%	.149	.313	.278	.325	.427	.330
Jason Pridie	409	5.9%	20.5%	.139	.306	.257	.302	.396	.309
Audry Perez	309	1.6%	16.2%	.107	.298	.264	.277	.371	.282
Trevor Story	519	6.9%	34.1%	.147	.317	.216	.279	.363	.288
Brandon Barnes	428	5.1%	25.2%	.144	.338	.262	.305	.406	.309
Angelys Nina	476	4.4%	16.2%	.107	.315	.273	.309	.380	.301
Charlie Culberson	438	3.9%	22.1%	.144	.309	.255	.290	.399	.299
Taylor Featherston	516	5.0%	24.0%	.137	.316	.251	.296	.388	.301
Tom Murphy	244	6.6%	28.3%	.180	.290	.230	.292	.410	.309
Rafael Ynoa	543	6.3%	16.6%	.094	.318	.267	.314	.361	.297
Ben Paulsen	535	6.7%	28.0%	.178	.325	.251	.305	.429	.317
Jayson Langfels	385	7.3%	34.0%	.095	.330	.219	.289	.314	.273
Matt McBride	331	3.9%	13.3%	.174	.286	.273	.302	.447	.325
Ryan Casteel	454	5.9%	24.7%	.147	.316	.253	.300	.400	.308
David Kandilas	401	6.5%	21.9%	.107	.302	.240	.298	.347	.288
Kyle Parker	548	6.2%	23.5%	.146	.322	.262	.312	.408	.317
Chris O’Dowd	330	5.2%	24.5%	.085	.313	.239	.281	.324	.270
Drew Garcia	382	4.7%	28.0%	.096	.302	.220	.263	.316	.253
Tim Smalling	311	6.1%	22.2%	.102	.296	.235	.287	.337	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Troy Tulowitzki	457	8.4	141	6	5.2	Cal Ripken
Nolan Arenado	568	5.7	102	11	3.2	Tracy Woodson
Carlos Gonzalez	423	7.0	120	-2	1.8	Glenallen Hill
David Dahl	467	4.9	87	7	1.7	Tyler Colvin
Corey Dickerson	542	6.5	118	-4	1.7	Al Martin
Drew Stubbs	489	5.3	91	-1	1.3	Bo Porter
Michael McKenry	248	5.9	108	-3	1.3	Steve Holm
Josh Rutledge	526	5.2	92	-6	1.2	Shawon Dunston
DJ LeMahieu	573	4.5	81	8	1.2	Herman Iribarren
Wilin Rosario	457	5.2	95	-8	1.1	Randy Knorr
Justin Morneau	521	6.0	107	3	1.1	Casey Smith
Cristhian Adames	545	4.2	77	3	0.8	Curtis Wilkerson
Rosell Herrera	459	4.7	88	-3	0.8	Ronny Cedeno
Dustin Garneau	351	3.9	75	1	0.7	Mike Ryan
Charlie Blackmon	567	5.3	93	-1	0.5	D.T. Cromer
Jason Pridie	409	4.5	79	0	0.5	Marc Sagmoen
Audry Perez	309	3.7	66	3	0.5	Hector Kuilan
Trevor Story	519	3.7	65	3	0.4	Jose Hernandez
Brandon Barnes	428	4.4	82	6	0.3	Shawn Garrett
Angelys Nina	476	4.2	77	2	0.3	Luis Maza
Charlie Culberson	438	4.2	76	1	0.2	Keith Johnson
Taylor Featherston	516	4.2	76	0	0.2	Edwin Diaz
Tom Murphy	244	4.1	80	-5	0.1	Steve Lomasney
Rafael Ynoa	543	4.1	75	1	0.1	Greg Fulton
Ben Paulsen	535	4.6	88	2	-0.4	Jose Barrios
Jayson Langfels	385	3.1	56	4	-0.4	Bryan Bass
Matt McBride	331	5.0	91	-5	-0.4	Guillermo Garcia
Ryan Casteel	454	4.3	79	0	-0.9	Lance Belen
David Kandilas	401	3.7	67	1	-0.9	Scott Jaster
Kyle Parker	548	4.6	85	-7	-0.9	Wil Culmer
Chris O’Dowd	330	3.3	56	-9	-1.1	Jose Lobaton
Drew Garcia	382	2.8	49	-2	-1.2	Matt Guiliano
Tim Smalling	311	3.2	61	-2	-1.4	Scott Rainey

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Tyler Matzek	L	24	31	30	182.3	154	73	20	185	93	87
Jorge de la Rosa	L	34	23	23	121.7	90	46	15	123	64	60
Jon Gray	R	23	24	24	118.7	93	39	14	123	63	59
Jordan Lyles	R	24	27	25	143.7	95	50	16	156	80	75
Jhoulys Chacin	R	27	20	20	114.7	75	43	13	120	62	58
Tyler Chatwood	R	25	19	17	94.0	65	34	9	99	48	45
Tyler Anderson	L	25	20	20	100.0	67	37	11	107	55	51
Brett Anderson	L	27	10	10	54.0	42	17	5	56	27	25
Adam Ottavino	R	29	64	0	75.0	77	26	8	71	33	31
Danny Winkler	R	25	20	20	107.7	86	40	18	114	64	60
Eddie Butler	R	24	24	24	123.7	73	51	16	142	77	72
Carlos Hernandez	L	28	27	18	111.0	61	35	15	132	68	64
Matt Belisle	R	35	64	0	64.3	49	17	6	68	31	29
Chad Bettis	R	26	36	11	87.7	69	33	11	96	51	48
LaTroy Hawkins	R	42	53	0	50.0	34	11	5	53	24	22
Rex Brothers	L	27	76	0	65.3	72	37	7	60	32	30
Christian Friedrich	L	27	26	14	86.3	73	33	13	92	52	49
Jorge Rondon	R	27	53	0	63.0	45	20	6	66	31	29
Yohan Flande	L	29	30	23	128.0	74	55	17	147	81	76
Jayson Aquino	L	22	18	17	99.3	58	39	13	116	63	59
Chris Rusin	L	28	28	26	150.0	77	48	22	179	97	91
Wilton Lopez	R	31	49	0	60.7	42	11	7	68	31	29
Chris Martin	R	29	42	0	51.0	42	16	5	53	26	24
Franklin Morales	L	29	34	13	93.3	71	43	14	102	58	54
Boone Logan	L	30	56	0	39.0	44	16	5	36	19	18
Brooks Brown	R	30	60	0	67.7	55	22	9	69	35	33
Aaron Laffey	L	30	26	22	130.3	63	47	18	155	85	79
Nick Masset	R	33	34	0	32.3	25	14	3	34	17	16
Tommy Kahnle	R	25	48	0	61.0	58	34	7	57	33	31
Justin Miller	R	28	42	0	48.3	35	19	6	52	27	25
Christian Bergman	R	27	26	26	143.3	78	36	27	174	96	90
Rafael Betancourt	R	40	21	0	20.0	15	8	3	21	12	11
Buddy Boshers	L	27	50	4	63.7	49	38	7	67	40	37
Manny Corpas	R	32	42	0	62.0	42	21	9	69	36	34
Brett Tomko	R	42	15	15	69.7	36	31	11	85	49	46
Josh Roenicke	R	32	44	7	76.3	40	34	11	89	50	47
Jair Jurrjens	R	29	20	20	106.0	51	38	17	134	75	70
Mike McClendon	R	30	31	4	66.3	35	27	10	79	45	42
Jose Ortega	R	26	48	0	59.0	51	38	8	62	37	35
John Lannan	L	30	20	16	88.3	40	37	14	111	65	61
Cole White	R	27	43	0	44.7	32	41	6	49	33	31
Brett Marshall	R	25	21	20	104.3	67	62	21	125	83	78

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Tyler Matzek	182.3	805	19.1%	9.1%	.299	4.29	4.41	98	101
Jorge de la Rosa	121.7	534	16.9%	8.6%	.286	4.44	4.72	101	108
Jon Gray	118.7	518	18.0%	7.5%	.299	4.47	4.52	102	103
Jordan Lyles	143.7	637	14.9%	7.8%	.300	4.70	4.73	107	108
Jhoulys Chacin	114.7	507	14.8%	8.5%	.287	4.55	4.73	104	108
Tyler Chatwood	94.0	415	15.7%	8.2%	.297	4.31	4.40	98	100
Tyler Anderson	100.0	444	15.1%	8.3%	.297	4.59	4.77	105	109
Brett Anderson	54.0	235	17.9%	7.2%	.300	4.17	3.93	95	90
Adam Ottavino	75.0	322	23.9%	8.1%	.303	3.72	3.76	85	86
Danny Winkler	107.7	477	18.0%	8.4%	.294	5.02	5.27	114	120
Eddie Butler	123.7	564	12.9%	9.0%	.302	5.24	5.27	119	120
Carlos Hernandez	111.0	500	12.2%	7.0%	.306	5.19	5.16	118	118
Matt Belisle	64.3	278	17.6%	6.1%	.303	4.06	3.78	93	86
Chad Bettis	87.7	392	17.6%	8.4%	.310	4.93	4.68	112	107
LaTroy Hawkins	50.0	214	15.9%	5.1%	.293	3.96	3.87	90	88
Rex Brothers	65.3	293	24.6%	12.6%	.301	4.13	4.23	94	96
Christian Friedrich	86.3	384	19.0%	8.6%	.303	5.11	4.91	116	112
Jorge Rondon	63.0	275	16.4%	7.3%	.299	4.14	4.25	94	97
Yohan Flande	128.0	586	12.6%	9.4%	.301	5.34	5.39	122	123
Jayson Aquino	99.3	453	12.8%	8.6%	.306	5.35	5.25	122	120
Chris Rusin	150.0	677	11.4%	7.1%	.301	5.46	5.31	124	121
Wilton Lopez	60.7	261	16.1%	4.2%	.306	4.30	4.05	98	92
Chris Martin	51.0	222	18.9%	7.2%	.308	4.24	4.08	97	93
Franklin Morales	93.3	425	16.7%	10.1%	.301	5.21	5.27	119	120
Boone Logan	39.0	169	26.0%	9.5%	.301	4.15	3.88	95	88
Brooks Brown	67.7	294	18.7%	7.5%	.294	4.39	4.60	100	105
Aaron Laffey	130.3	593	10.6%	7.9%	.300	5.46	5.46	124	124
Nick Masset	32.3	145	17.3%	9.7%	.310	4.45	4.63	101	105
Tommy Kahnle	61.0	274	21.2%	12.4%	.289	4.57	4.65	104	106
Justin Miller	48.3	216	16.2%	8.8%	.301	4.66	4.92	106	112
Christian Bergman	143.3	640	12.2%	5.6%	.299	5.65	5.63	129	128
Rafael Betancourt	20.0	89	16.9%	9.0%	.290	4.95	5.04	113	115
Buddy Boshers	63.7	296	16.5%	12.8%	.303	5.23	5.21	119	119
Manny Corpas	62.0	276	15.2%	7.6%	.300	4.94	4.99	113	114
Brett Tomko	69.7	325	11.1%	9.5%	.304	5.94	5.92	135	135
Josh Roenicke	76.3	352	11.4%	9.7%	.296	5.54	5.59	126	127
Jair Jurrjens	106.0	490	10.4%	7.8%	.310	5.94	5.70	135	130
Mike McClendon	66.3	305	11.5%	8.9%	.301	5.70	5.65	130	129

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Tyler Matzek	182.3	7.60	3.60	0.99	103	3.1	Paul Maholm
Jorge de la Rosa	121.7	6.66	3.40	1.11	99	1.9	Brian Bohanon
Jon Gray	118.7	7.05	2.96	1.06	98	1.8	Kevin Brown
Jordan Lyles	143.7	5.95	3.13	1.00	94	1.7	Dave Coggin
Jhoulys Chacin	114.7	5.88	3.37	1.02	97	1.6	Zach Day
Tyler Chatwood	94.0	6.22	3.26	0.86	102	1.6	Anthony Young
Tyler Anderson	100.0	6.03	3.33	0.99	96	1.3	John Daniels
Brett Anderson	54.0	7.00	2.83	0.83	106	1.0	David Williams
Adam Ottavino	75.0	9.24	3.12	0.96	118	0.9	Mike Jackson
Danny Winkler	107.7	7.19	3.34	1.50	88	0.9	John Patterson
Eddie Butler	123.7	5.31	3.71	1.16	84	0.6	Brian Moehler
Carlos Hernandez	111.0	4.95	2.84	1.22	85	0.5	Dave Otto
Matt Belisle	64.3	6.86	2.38	0.84	109	0.5	Mark Williamson
Chad Bettis	87.7	7.08	3.39	1.13	89	0.5	David Holdridge
LaTroy Hawkins	50.0	6.12	1.98	0.90	111	0.5	Jim Turner
Rex Brothers	65.3	9.92	5.10	0.96	107	0.5	Ricky Pickett
Christian Friedrich	86.3	7.61	3.44	1.36	86	0.4	Paul Darnell
Jorge Rondon	63.0	6.43	2.86	0.86	106	0.4	Daryl Irvine
Yohan Flande	128.0	5.20	3.87	1.20	82	0.4	Steve Davis
Jayson Aquino	99.3	5.26	3.53	1.18	82	0.4	Jim Crowell
Chris Rusin	150.0	4.62	2.88	1.32	81	0.3	Lance Davis
Wilton Lopez	60.7	6.23	1.63	1.04	102	0.3	Gil Heredia
Chris Martin	51.0	7.41	2.82	0.88	104	0.3	Tim Layana
Franklin Morales	93.3	6.85	4.15	1.35	85	0.3	Jesus Sanchez
Boone Logan	39.0	10.15	3.69	1.15	106	0.3	Armando Almanza
Brooks Brown	67.7	7.31	2.92	1.20	100	0.3	Joey McLaughlin
Aaron Laffey	130.3	4.35	3.25	1.24	81	0.3	Huck Flener
Nick Masset	32.3	6.97	3.90	0.84	99	0.1	Moe Burtschy
Tommy Kahnle	61.0	8.56	5.02	1.03	96	0.1	Billy Sadler
Justin Miller	48.3	6.52	3.54	1.12	95	0.0	John Koronka
Christian Bergman	143.3	4.90	2.26	1.70	78	0.0	Ryan Cox
Rafael Betancourt	20.0	6.75	3.60	1.35	89	-0.1	Jose Mesa
Buddy Boshers	63.7	6.92	5.37	0.99	84	-0.2	Carl Schutz
Manny Corpas	62.0	6.10	3.05	1.31	89	-0.2	Lee Gardner
Brett Tomko	69.7	4.65	4.00	1.42	74	-0.3	Ed Riley
Josh Roenicke	76.3	4.72	4.01	1.30	80	-0.4	Mike Sullivan
Jair Jurrjens	106.0	4.33	3.23	1.44	74	-0.4	Larry Luebbers
Mike McClendon	66.3	4.75	3.67	1.36	77	-0.5	Matt Albers
Jose Ortega	59.0	7.78	5.80	1.22	83	-0.5	Doug Thompson
John Lannan	88.3	4.08	3.77	1.43	71	-0.7	Dan Smith
Cole White	44.7	6.44	8.26	1.21	71	-0.9	Johnny Humphries
Brett Marshall	104.3	5.78	5.35	1.81	66	-1.5	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.