2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Because it’s a statistical model and not a human with a brain and neurotransmitters and a face, the ZiPS projection system is incapable of experiencing or exhibiting signs of anxiety. Were it capable of doing so, however, it apparently still wouldn’t exhibit any anxiety with regard to Mike Trout’s 2014 season — a season during which Trout led all batters by a win, but also trailed the 2013 version of Mike Trout by roughly three wins. One finds that Trout is projected here to produce a 9.6 WAR in 2015 — actually one-tenth of a win greater than his projection from last year.

Elsewhere, ZiPS’ computer math suggests that the Angels nearly have the player they expected when the club signed Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million contract in December of 2012. Unfortunately, the player isn’t Hamilton himself, but rather Kole Calhoun. Over the last two years he’s recorded a 125 wRC+. Josh Hamilton’s career mark, by comparison: 129 wRC+. ZiPS is a bit less optimistic for Calhoun’s 2015 season, but he’s emerged as an excellent hitter for an eighth-round selection who signed for a mere $36 thousand.

Pitchers
For the third consecutive season, right-hander Jered Weaver produced an xFIP- worse than and an ERA- better than league average. Over the course of his career, Weaver has outperformed his raw xFIP by almost an entire run and his FIP by nearly half a run. That’s an excellent skill Weaver has, but assuredly one that renders him difficult to project when nearly every other pitcher can be expected to regress towards his fielding-independent numbers. ZiPS calls for more of the same, however, with Weaver expected to outperform his FIP again by a considerable margin.

By means of his injury-shortened but very excellent 2014 season, right-hander Garrett Richards has distinguished himself as the Angels’ ace. Identifying the club’s No. 2 starter, however — if pressed, for some reason, to perform such a task — is more difficult. The aforementioned Weaver is certainly a possibility, as is C.J. Wilson. Were one to use just one criteria, however — namely the number of wins the relevant pitcher is likely to produce — than Matt Shoemaker would be the answer, according to the ZiPS’ model.

Bench/Prospects
A discussion about the Angels’ top major-league ready prospects apparently — according to this iteration of ZiPS — apparently has to begin with 24-year-old catcher Jett Bandy, who’s projected to produce a higher WAR than either David Freese or Josh Hamilton. Beyond him, it would appear as though shortstop Eric Stamets is a candidate to provide better than replacement-level production almost entirely based on the quality of his defense at shortstop.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Angels Depth Real

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 23 CF 705 113 178 38 10 35 114 23 4
Albert Pujols R 35 1B 630 77 157 37 1 26 97 6 1
Howie Kendrick R 31 2B 609 69 158 28 4 10 69 11 5
Kole Calhoun L 27 RF 575 85 140 29 4 19 71 7 5
Erick Aybar B 31 SS 614 72 156 31 4 8 63 16 7
Chris Iannetta R 32 C 350 34 66 14 0 8 37 2 1
Jett Bandy R 25 C 377 36 78 17 0 8 37 1 3
Josh Hamilton L 34 LF 499 57 114 23 2 18 69 4 2
David Freese R 32 3B 509 49 114 22 1 11 58 1 2
Eric Stamets R 23 SS 493 48 107 19 2 5 37 10 3
Carlos Perez R 24 C 381 36 80 17 1 5 35 2 1
Shawn O’Malley B 27 SS 423 44 88 11 5 3 30 14 4
Collin Cowgill R 29 RF 371 40 80 14 2 6 32 7 2
Gordon Beckham R 28 2B 528 57 117 27 0 9 47 5 1
Raywilly Gomez B 25 C 343 30 75 13 0 2 27 1 0
Jose Rondon R 21 SS 474 41 102 19 3 1 34 11 10
John Buck R 34 C 330 28 62 10 0 8 36 1 0
Luis Jimenez R 27 3B 505 51 115 26 2 10 54 10 4
C.J. Cron R 25 DH 521 51 122 24 2 17 63 2 2
Grant Green R 27 LF 497 50 120 25 3 8 53 5 5
Vance Albitz R 27 2B 276 24 61 13 1 2 19 4 2
John McDonald R 40 3B 92 7 15 2 0 0 6 1 1
Alex Yarbrough B 23 2B 627 57 146 30 4 6 60 7 5
Mike Bianucci R 29 RF 365 36 78 16 1 13 43 2 1
Efren Navarro L 29 1B 544 52 120 26 2 5 48 4 3
Ryan Wheeler L 26 3B 493 41 104 19 1 8 50 2 2
Kaleb Cowart L 23 3B 538 46 107 20 3 7 47 15 6
Matt Long L 28 CF 521 54 100 19 4 8 44 16 5
Ian Stewart L 30 3B 233 21 36 7 2 5 20 1 1
Roger Kieschnick L 28 RF 440 45 84 18 3 11 47 4 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Trout 705 13.5% 20.7% .276 .341 .301 .401 .577 .419
Albert Pujols 630 7.1% 11.0% .204 .270 .274 .329 .478 .340
Howie Kendrick 609 5.6% 17.6% .117 .330 .281 .326 .398 .314
Kole Calhoun 575 7.5% 19.1% .179 .303 .266 .322 .445 .336
Erick Aybar 614 4.6% 10.3% .110 .294 .274 .311 .384 .303
Chris Iannetta 350 14.3% 25.4% .130 .293 .227 .346 .357 .317
Jett Bandy 377 4.5% 19.1% .120 .263 .227 .287 .347 .280
Josh Hamilton 499 7.8% 26.1% .180 .312 .254 .315 .434 .320
David Freese 509 8.3% 23.4% .125 .312 .249 .320 .374 .309
Eric Stamets 493 3.9% 16.0% .083 .272 .234 .271 .317 .260
Carlos Perez 381 6.0% 18.6% .098 .272 .229 .279 .327 .268
Shawn O’Malley 423 6.4% 20.3% .079 .289 .232 .289 .311 .269
Collin Cowgill 371 7.0% 23.2% .107 .301 .237 .299 .344 .289
Gordon Beckham 528 5.1% 16.1% .111 .273 .241 .288 .352 .284
Raywilly Gomez 343 7.0% 14.6% .061 .278 .240 .296 .301 .268
Jose Rondon 474 4.9% 17.7% .064 .283 .232 .272 .296 .248
John Buck 330 8.2% 26.4% .114 .265 .208 .282 .322 .269
Luis Jimenez 505 3.0% 18.4% .125 .276 .241 .267 .366 .277
C.J. Cron 521 3.5% 20.9% .161 .285 .248 .284 .409 .303
Grant Green 497 4.2% 20.7% .118 .311 .257 .292 .375 .293
Vance Albitz 276 4.0% 13.0% .082 .267 .237 .275 .319 .263
John McDonald 92 6.5% 19.6% .025 .238 .188 .258 .213 .213
Alex Yarbrough 627 3.3% 22.3% .093 .306 .245 .268 .338 .265
Mike Bianucci 365 4.4% 26.6% .167 .277 .228 .268 .395 .292
Efren Navarro 544 7.0% 17.8% .090 .287 .240 .295 .330 .277
Ryan Wheeler 493 5.1% 25.4% .098 .289 .227 .266 .325 .259
Kaleb Cowart 538 5.4% 24.9% .093 .275 .214 .258 .307 .252
Matt Long 521 7.3% 26.5% .107 .276 .211 .268 .318 .263
Ian Stewart 233 8.2% 36.1% .124 .254 .171 .249 .295 .244
Roger Kieschnick 440 5.5% 33.2% .139 .284 .204 .250 .343 .262

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 705 9.2 176 -1 9.6 Mickey Mantle
Albert Pujols 630 5.9 128 5 3.1 Frank McCormick
Howie Kendrick 609 4.9 106 3 3.0 Julio Franco
Kole Calhoun 575 5.2 117 2 2.6 John Stone
Erick Aybar 614 4.5 98 -2 2.4 Tony Fernandez
Chris Iannetta 350 4.3 102 -6 1.5 Chris Hoiles
Jett Bandy 377 3.3 81 3 1.4 Joe Depastino
Josh Hamilton 499 4.9 112 -1 1.4 Geoff Jenkins
David Freese 509 4.2 98 -5 1.3 Travis Fryman
Eric Stamets 493 3.1 68 7 1.2 Fausto Cruz
Carlos Perez 381 3.2 73 2 1.0 Damian Miller
Shawn O’Malley 423 3.3 72 2 0.9 Zach Sorensen
Collin Cowgill 371 3.7 84 6 0.8 George Hinshaw
Gordon Beckham 528 3.7 82 -1 0.8 Patrick Sellers
Raywilly Gomez 343 3.2 72 -2 0.5 Nelson Santovenia
Jose Rondon 474 2.6 63 6 0.5 Geoff Blum
John Buck 330 3.1 73 -4 0.4 Joe Oliver
Luis Jimenez 505 3.5 79 -2 0.4 Cliff Pastornicky
C.J. Cron 521 4.1 95 0 0.2 Andy Marte
Grant Green 497 3.9 89 -1 0.1 Andrew Locke
Vance Albitz 276 3.1 70 0 0.0 Brandon Pinckney
John McDonald 92 1.7 37 2 -0.1 Jim Morrison
Alex Yarbrough 627 3.2 73 -3 -0.3 Charlie Hayes
Mike Bianucci 365 3.7 87 -4 -0.3 Chris Widger
Efren Navarro 544 3.4 79 2 -0.6 Tim Hyers
Ryan Wheeler 493 3.0 69 -4 -0.6 Greg David
Kaleb Cowart 538 2.8 61 -1 -0.7 Chris Truby
Matt Long 521 3.1 67 -6 -0.7 Jon Hamilton
Ian Stewart 233 2.4 55 -3 -0.7 Scott Stahoviak
Roger Kieschnick 440 2.9 68 1 -0.9 Justin Bowles

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Garrett Richards R 27 28 28 170.0 154 56 9 144 61 57
Matt Shoemaker R 28 27 27 166.0 139 34 17 155 67 63
Jered Weaver R 32 27 27 169.0 131 47 21 157 74 69
C.J. Wilson L 34 28 28 168.0 145 73 17 159 81 76
Hector Santiago L 27 31 24 138.7 116 55 15 132 65 61
Tyler Skaggs L 23 22 21 128.3 105 45 12 123 61 57
Joe Smith R 31 70 0 64.7 58 19 5 54 22 21
Nick Tropeano R 24 27 22 131.7 102 44 14 131 67 63
Drew Rucinski R 26 20 18 104.0 73 30 11 108 52 49
Huston Street R 31 54 0 50.0 50 13 6 42 18 17
Wade LeBlanc L 30 33 20 133.0 94 42 16 139 70 65
Vinnie Pestano R 30 60 0 56.7 61 22 6 49 22 21
Jason Grilli R 38 52 0 47.0 55 16 4 40 18 17
Kevin Jepsen R 30 64 0 56.0 59 21 5 48 22 21
Mike Morin R 24 68 0 69.3 60 18 6 65 29 27
Fernando Salas R 30 58 0 56.7 54 16 6 52 24 22
Yoslan Herrera R 34 55 0 62.3 48 22 4 61 27 25
Randy Wolf L 38 21 17 107.0 77 36 13 112 58 54
Cam Bedrosian R 23 56 0 63.3 70 31 6 55 28 26
Joe Thatcher L 33 55 0 32.7 31 8 3 31 14 13
Sean Burnett L 32 24 0 18.7 18 5 2 17 7 7
Brandon Lyon R 35 34 0 33.7 25 11 3 33 15 14
Cesar Ramos L 31 42 5 74.7 59 28 9 72 37 35
Kyler Newby R 30 39 0 49.3 37 17 4 48 22 21
Cory Rasmus R 27 56 3 69.7 65 37 8 64 34 32
Danny Reynolds R 24 45 0 63.3 48 26 5 62 30 28
Dane de la Rosa R 32 55 0 51.0 43 24 5 47 25 23
Alex Sanabia R 26 20 18 103.0 69 32 15 112 59 55
Jeremy McBryde R 28 55 0 56.7 51 24 7 54 28 26
Fernando Nieve R 32 28 7 63.3 46 28 8 66 35 33
David L. Carpenter R 27 46 0 60.3 45 26 5 59 30 28
Jairo Diaz R 24 56 0 66.7 56 27 8 66 34 32
Atahualpa Severino L 30 40 0 45.0 44 25 6 42 25 23
Ryan Chaffee R 27 49 0 59.7 54 39 6 56 32 30
Jose Alvarez L 26 20 16 89.3 49 29 14 101 57 53
Michael Roth L 25 25 17 95.3 54 45 14 107 62 58
Chris Volstad R 28 26 24 136.0 61 49 18 159 86 80
Mark Sappington R 24 35 20 115.3 82 78 19 125 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Garrett Richards 170.0 710 21.7% 7.9% .279 3.02 3.10 81 83
Matt Shoemaker 166.0 687 20.2% 4.9% .280 3.42 3.49 92 93
Jered Weaver 169.0 711 18.4% 6.6% .268 3.67 4.12 98 110
C.J. Wilson 168.0 736 19.7% 9.9% .288 4.07 4.11 109 110
Hector Santiago 138.7 603 19.2% 9.1% .286 3.96 4.18 106 112
Tyler Skaggs 128.3 553 19.0% 8.1% .288 4.00 3.88 107 104
Joe Smith 64.7 267 21.7% 7.1% .271 2.92 3.27 78 87
Nick Tropeano 131.7 570 17.9% 7.7% .290 4.31 4.10 115 110
Drew Rucinski 104.0 450 16.2% 6.7% .294 4.24 4.14 114 111
Huston Street 50.0 205 24.4% 6.3% .265 3.06 3.35 82 90
Wade LeBlanc 133.0 580 16.2% 7.2% .292 4.40 4.34 118 116
Vinnie Pestano 56.7 241 25.3% 9.1% .286 3.34 3.57 89 96
Jason Grilli 47.0 197 27.9% 8.1% .300 3.26 2.98 87 80
Kevin Jepsen 56.0 237 24.9% 8.9% .287 3.37 3.31 90 89
Mike Morin 69.3 291 20.6% 6.2% .291 3.50 3.30 94 88
Fernando Salas 56.7 238 22.7% 6.7% .286 3.49 3.34 93 89
Yoslan Herrera 62.3 270 17.8% 8.2% .294 3.61 3.34 97 89
Randy Wolf 107.0 469 16.4% 7.7% .293 4.54 4.42 122 118
Cam Bedrosian 63.3 276 25.4% 11.2% .294 3.69 3.62 99 97
Joe Thatcher 32.7 137 22.6% 5.8% .304 3.58 3.34 96 90
Sean Burnett 18.7 78 23.0% 6.4% .288 3.37 3.39 90 91
Brandon Lyon 33.7 145 17.2% 7.6% .285 3.74 3.69 100 99
Cesar Ramos 74.7 324 18.2% 8.6% .279 4.22 4.12 113 110
Kyler Newby 49.3 213 17.4% 8.0% .290 3.83 3.84 103 103
Cory Rasmus 69.7 310 21.0% 11.9% .283 4.13 4.30 111 115
Danny Reynolds 63.3 278 17.3% 9.4% .291 3.98 3.96 107 106
Dane de la Rosa 51.0 224 19.2% 10.7% .278 4.06 4.13 109 111
Alex Sanabia 103.0 453 15.2% 7.1% .292 4.81 4.73 129 127
Jeremy McBryde 56.7 248 20.6% 9.7% .290 4.13 4.26 111 114
Fernando Nieve 63.3 284 16.2% 9.9% .293 4.69 4.79 126 128
David L. Carpenter 60.3 266 16.9% 9.8% .289 4.18 4.11 112 110
Jairo Diaz 66.7 293 19.1% 9.2% .293 4.32 4.31 116 115
Atahualpa Severino 45.0 202 21.8% 12.4% .290 4.60 4.71 123 126
Ryan Chaffee 59.7 274 19.7% 14.2% .292 4.53 4.69 121 125
Jose Alvarez 89.3 398 12.3% 7.3% .290 5.34 5.21 143 140
Michael Roth 95.3 438 12.3% 10.3% .293 5.48 5.48 147 147
Chris Volstad 136.0 616 9.9% 8.0% .294 5.29 5.19 142 139
Mark Sappington 115.3 549 14.9% 14.2% .292 6.01 6.03 161 162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Garrett Richards 170.0 8.15 2.96 0.48 123 3.8 Darryl Kile
Matt Shoemaker 166.0 7.54 1.84 0.92 109 2.9 Kevin Tapani
Jered Weaver 169.0 6.98 2.50 1.12 101 2.3 Ken Schrom
C.J. Wilson 168.0 7.77 3.91 0.91 91 1.5 Tommy Byrne
Hector Santiago 138.7 7.53 3.57 0.97 94 1.3 Kason Gabbard
Tyler Skaggs 128.3 7.37 3.16 0.84 93 1.2 Matt Young
Joe Smith 64.7 8.07 2.64 0.70 127 0.9 Bert Roberge
Nick Tropeano 131.7 6.97 3.01 0.96 86 0.7 Landon Jacobsen
Drew Rucinski 104.0 6.32 2.60 0.95 88 0.7 Jon Perlman
Huston Street 50.0 9.00 2.34 1.08 121 0.6 Blas Minor
Wade LeBlanc 133.0 6.36 2.84 1.08 84 0.5 Huck Flener
Vinnie Pestano 56.7 9.68 3.49 0.95 111 0.4 Derrick Turnbow
Jason Grilli 47.0 10.53 3.06 0.77 114 0.4 Rudy Seanez
Kevin Jepsen 56.0 9.48 3.38 0.80 110 0.4 Steve Andrade
Mike Morin 69.3 7.79 2.34 0.78 106 0.4 Jose Acevedo
Fernando Salas 56.7 8.57 2.54 0.95 106 0.3 Jerry Spradlin
Yoslan Herrera 62.3 6.93 3.18 0.58 103 0.3 Ricky Barlow
Randy Wolf 107.0 6.48 3.03 1.09 82 0.2 Chris Michalak
Cam Bedrosian 63.3 9.95 4.41 0.85 100 0.2 Jeff Innis
Joe Thatcher 32.7 8.53 2.20 0.83 104 0.2 Brian Shouse
Sean Burnett 18.7 8.66 2.41 0.96 110 0.1 Tommy Phelps
Brandon Lyon 33.7 6.68 2.94 0.80 99 0.1 Ken Sanders
Cesar Ramos 74.7 7.11 3.37 1.08 88 0.1 Jeff Schneider
Kyler Newby 49.3 6.75 3.10 0.73 97 0.1 Jose Silva
Cory Rasmus 69.7 8.39 4.78 1.03 90 0.0 Victor Moreno
Danny Reynolds 63.3 6.82 3.70 0.71 93 0.0 Joe Davenport
Dane de la Rosa 51.0 7.59 4.24 0.88 91 -0.1 Jason Bullard
Alex Sanabia 103.0 6.03 2.80 1.31 77 -0.1 Apolinar Garcia
Jeremy McBryde 56.7 8.10 3.81 1.11 90 -0.1 Mike James
Fernando Nieve 63.3 6.54 3.98 1.14 79 -0.2 Mike Sullivan
David L. Carpenter 60.3 6.72 3.88 0.75 89 -0.2 Mike Zimmerman
Jairo Diaz 66.7 7.56 3.64 1.08 86 -0.3 Travis Foley
Atahualpa Severino 45.0 8.80 5.00 1.20 81 -0.4 Billy Brewer
Ryan Chaffee 59.7 8.14 5.88 0.90 82 -0.5 Tomas Santiago
Jose Alvarez 89.3 4.94 2.92 1.41 70 -0.7 Omar Daal
Michael Roth 95.3 5.10 4.25 1.32 68 -1.0 Jason Navarro
Chris Volstad 136.0 4.04 3.24 1.19 70 -1.0 Kip Bouknight
Mark Sappington 115.3 6.40 6.09 1.48 62 -2.0 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
E-bone
Guest
E-bone

That Mickey Mantle comp *swoon*

Matt
Guest
Matt

I wish Howie Kendrick had Julio Franco’s batting stance. It was awesome.

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest

I like that another player is compared to Jim Morrison.

Jonah Pemstein
Member

John McDonald is over 27, though, so he should be ok.