2015 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Miami / Tampa Bay.

Batters
It’s not a matter of great urgency — but nonetheless a briefly compelling thought exercise — to attempt to identify who is the star of the Milwaukee Brewers, if pressed to choose just one. Ryan Braun has certainly been the club’s most talented player in the past. Jonathan Lucroy, meanwhile, produced one of the majors’ best seasons in 2014 and finished fourth overall in MVP voting. And Carlos Gomez, one finds, has recorded the most wins among the club’s field players by a non-negligible margin over the past three years. So far as present talent is concerned, ZiPS favors Lucroy among the three — although by less than half a win over Gomez, rendering it an effective tie.

As in recent years, there’s a divide between the club’s best and less-best starters — although it’s less pronounced than in the past. In 2014, for example, ZiPS projected only two players (Aramis Ramirez and Jean Segura) outside the aforementioned triumvirate to record a 1.5 WAR or better. This year, six players appear above that projection threshold.

Pitchers
The Brewers provisional rotation is populated by pitchers who, if different in terms of process, are expected to be quite similar in terms of product. The five starters in the depth-chart image below are projected to finish the 2015 season within a win of each other — and all within just half a win of a league-average 2.0 WAR. League average, then, is a thing they might likely be as a group.

Milwaukee appears likely — at this point, at least — to be in the mind of using Jonathan Broxton as the team’s closer in 2015, that large right-hander having been acquired by the club from Cincinnati at the end of August. Broxton is projected to record a 96 FIP- next year, which would represent the worst figure of his career among seasons in which he pitched 50-plus inning. That’s not surprising: Broxton recorded the lowest average fastball velocity (93.2 mph) of his career in 2014, and he’s a player for whom there’s been a strong correlation between arm speed and effectiveness, as the hastily made graph below indicates — which graph features Broxton’s average fastball velocity in seasons during which he’s pitched 50-plus innings and then the FIP- figures he’s recorded in those same seasons.

Bench/Prospects
While they’re presented in the depth-chart image below in what would appear to be a fairly standard platoon — which would make sense given their respective handedness — there’s no indication that Gerardo Parra and Khris Davis will be used that way. Both are roughly major-league average regulars, according to ZiPS. Among prospects, the projections both for Tyrone Taylor (1.0 WAR in 599 PA) and Orlando Arcia (1.0 WAR in 554 PA) are encouraging relative to the ages (20 and 21, respectively, in 2015) of both those players.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

***

Batters, Assorted Other

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.