2015 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Miami / Tampa Bay.

Batters
It’s not a matter of great urgency — but nonetheless a briefly compelling thought exercise — to attempt to identify who is the star of the Milwaukee Brewers, if pressed to choose just one. Ryan Braun has certainly been the club’s most talented player in the past. Jonathan Lucroy, meanwhile, produced one of the majors’ best seasons in 2014 and finished fourth overall in MVP voting. And Carlos Gomez, one finds, has recorded the most wins among the club’s field players by a non-negligible margin over the past three years. So far as present talent is concerned, ZiPS favors Lucroy among the three — although by less than half a win over Gomez, rendering it an effective tie.

As in recent years, there’s a divide between the club’s best and less-best starters — although it’s less pronounced than in the past. In 2014, for example, ZiPS projected only two players (Aramis Ramirez and Jean Segura) outside the aforementioned triumvirate to record a 1.5 WAR or better. This year, six players appear above that projection threshold.

Pitchers
The Brewers provisional rotation is populated by pitchers who, if different in terms of process, are expected to be quite similar in terms of product. The five starters in the depth-chart image below are projected to finish the 2015 season within a win of each other — and all within just half a win of a league-average 2.0 WAR. League average, then, is a thing they might likely be as a group.

Milwaukee appears likely — at this point, at least — to be in the mind of using Jonathan Broxton as the team’s closer in 2015, that large right-hander having been acquired by the club from Cincinnati at the end of August. Broxton is projected to record a 96 FIP- next year, which would represent the worst figure of his career among seasons in which he pitched 50-plus inning. That’s not surprising: Broxton recorded the lowest average fastball velocity (93.2 mph) of his career in 2014, and he’s a player for whom there’s been a strong correlation between arm speed and effectiveness, as the hastily made graph below indicates — which graph features Broxton’s average fastball velocity in seasons during which he’s pitched 50-plus innings and then the FIP- figures he’s recorded in those same seasons.

Bench/Prospects
While they’re presented in the depth-chart image below in what would appear to be a fairly standard platoon — which would make sense given their respective handedness — there’s no indication that Gerardo Parra and Khris Davis will be used that way. Both are roughly major-league average regulars, according to ZiPS. Among prospects, the projections both for Tyrone Taylor (1.0 WAR in 599 PA) and Orlando Arcia (1.0 WAR in 554 PA) are encouraging relative to the ages (20 and 21, respectively, in 2015) of both those players.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jonathan Lucroy	R	29	C	568	64	149	34	4	14	77	6	2
Carlos Gomez	R	29	CF	572	87	143	28	6	22	72	32	9
Ryan Braun	R	31	RF	630	88	163	32	4	27	103	17	6
Jean Segura	R	25	SS	589	72	151	19	8	9	49	28	9
Scooter Gennett	L	25	2B	581	67	155	29	4	11	59	8	5
Gerardo Parra	L	28	RF	566	69	138	26	4	11	47	10	7
Khris Davis	R	27	LF	481	65	109	28	2	21	69	5	2
Aramis Ramirez	R	37	3B	425	44	108	19	1	14	61	2	0
Adam Lind	L	31	1B	447	51	117	22	2	15	62	1	0
Jason Rogers	R	27	3B	547	62	124	25	3	14	62	5	1
Tyrone Taylor	R	21	CF	599	69	137	33	3	10	66	16	8
Yadiel Rivera	R	23	SS	506	52	112	17	5	7	41	9	7
Orlando Arcia	R	20	SS	554	62	127	24	4	7	51	20	12
Luis Jimenez	R	27	3B	505	56	123	28	2	13	58	10	4
Martin Maldonado	R	28	C	241	21	48	9	0	6	30	0	1
Juan Centeno	L	25	C	316	31	76	10	2	1	24	2	1
Rickie Weeks	R	32	2B	416	50	87	21	2	12	38	7	4
Mark Reynolds	R	31	1B	479	61	93	16	0	25	69	3	2
Elian Herrera	B	30	CF	410	47	96	16	5	3	31	12	4
Matt Clark	L	28	1B	487	65	106	18	1	23	70	0	0
Kevin Mattison	L	29	CF	388	44	71	14	5	8	36	15	8
Robinzon Diaz	R	31	C	297	29	76	12	1	4	27	1	1
Taylor Green	L	28	3B	302	28	67	16	0	6	30	1	1
Hector Gomez	R	27	SS	389	38	82	17	4	9	41	5	4
Logan Schafer	L	28	CF	397	41	83	19	5	4	38	9	4
Caleb Gindl	L	26	RF	492	51	106	22	3	11	47	3	3
Hainley Statia	B	29	3B	327	33	70	11	1	3	24	5	4
Nick Delmonico	L	22	3B	269	29	58	11	1	8	29	4	3
Jeff Bianchi	R	28	SS	321	30	71	11	1	3	31	6	3
Lyle Overbay	L	38	1B	337	31	73	17	1	8	49	2	0
Sean Halton	R	28	LF	474	50	107	25	2	10	54	2	1
Erik Komatsu	L	27	LF	245	24	49	8	1	4	19	4	4
Eugenio Velez	B	33	LF	431	46	102	19	3	7	42	19	9
Pete Orr	L	36	2B	361	34	81	14	4	3	31	8	4
Irving Falu	B	32	2B	434	40	101	13	3	3	30	11	8
Hunter Morris	L	26	1B	510	58	118	26	3	17	63	2	1
Kentrail Davis	L	27	RF	505	52	105	21	4	4	39	15	8
Lucas May	R	30	C	159	14	31	7	1	2	14	1	0
Jeremy Hermida	L	31	RF	414	48	84	17	1	12	46	1	2
Victor Roache	R	23	LF	504	57	98	14	2	22	64	7	4
Hector Gimenez	B	32	LF	265	27	54	13	1	7	32	0	0
Nick Ramirez	L	25	1B	514	55	100	21	2	17	63	1	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jonathan Lucroy	568	8.3%	12.1%	.164	.311	.290	.351	.454	.352
Carlos Gomez	572	6.1%	22.6%	.205	.327	.277	.336	.482	.360
Ryan Braun	630	8.3%	18.7%	.213	.319	.287	.352	.500	.367
Jean Segura	589	4.9%	13.4%	.113	.309	.277	.318	.390	.309
Scooter Gennett	581	4.3%	15.3%	.129	.323	.286	.318	.415	.315
Gerardo Parra	566	6.9%	17.5%	.131	.312	.268	.323	.399	.310
Khris Davis	481	7.5%	24.1%	.220	.294	.253	.320	.473	.348
Aramis Ramirez	425	5.4%	15.3%	.162	.300	.278	.332	.440	.340
Adam Lind	447	9.2%	17.7%	.177	.328	.291	.356	.468	.358
Jason Rogers	547	7.7%	21.8%	.147	.298	.249	.309	.396	.313
Tyrone Taylor	599	5.0%	16.2%	.125	.282	.247	.291	.372	.291
Yadiel Rivera	506	4.3%	23.1%	.101	.298	.236	.276	.337	.269
Orlando Arcia	554	5.2%	15.2%	.102	.279	.244	.286	.346	.280
Luis Jimenez	505	3.4%	16.6%	.150	.286	.258	.287	.408	.302
Martin Maldonado	241	7.1%	25.7%	.126	.284	.223	.294	.349	.282
Juan Centeno	316	5.1%	16.1%	.059	.310	.261	.301	.320	.273
Rickie Weeks	416	10.1%	25.0%	.168	.301	.239	.332	.407	.329
Mark Reynolds	479	11.7%	29.6%	.218	.270	.224	.319	.442	.335
Elian Herrera	410	6.3%	22.0%	.093	.327	.256	.308	.349	.292
Matt Clark	487	8.2%	29.0%	.204	.299	.243	.310	.447	.330
Kevin Mattison	388	7.2%	34.8%	.136	.299	.202	.267	.338	.268
Robinzon Diaz	297	3.0%	10.4%	.091	.287	.267	.288	.358	.284
Taylor Green	302	6.6%	19.2%	.123	.285	.243	.299	.366	.293
Hector Gomez	389	3.6%	24.9%	.143	.281	.225	.260	.368	.271
Logan Schafer	397	7.3%	18.1%	.115	.280	.233	.295	.348	.280
Caleb Gindl	492	8.3%	23.0%	.137	.294	.238	.304	.375	.298
Hainley Statia	327	9.2%	15.9%	.075	.280	.239	.311	.314	.280
Nick Delmonico	269	7.1%	28.6%	.150	.307	.235	.294	.385	.301
Jeff Bianchi	321	5.3%	20.6%	.074	.294	.238	.280	.312	.264
Lyle Overbay	337	8.6%	21.4%	.141	.286	.239	.306	.380	.305
Sean Halton	474	6.1%	24.3%	.135	.307	.245	.295	.380	.297
Erik Komatsu	245	8.6%	24.5%	.100	.287	.224	.292	.324	.271
Eugenio Velez	431	6.5%	18.3%	.116	.304	.257	.309	.373	.303
Pete Orr	361	3.3%	21.6%	.090	.298	.237	.268	.327	.263
Irving Falu	434	5.3%	10.6%	.070	.278	.253	.292	.323	.266
Hunter Morris	510	5.1%	23.7%	.174	.294	.246	.288	.420	.310
Kentrail Davis	505	8.1%	27.5%	.091	.323	.231	.301	.322	.279
Lucas May	159	3.8%	27.0%	.101	.274	.208	.241	.309	.239
Jeremy Hermida	414	10.4%	28.3%	.150	.300	.229	.312	.379	.309
Victor Roache	504	5.8%	38.3%	.180	.299	.210	.262	.390	.287
Hector Gimenez	265	5.7%	27.2%	.147	.278	.220	.265	.367	.278
Nick Ramirez	514	6.4%	41.4%	.160	.333	.210	.263	.370	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jonathan Lucroy	568	6.1	117	7	5.3	Thurman Munson
Carlos Gomez	572	6.3	119	8	4.9	Paul Blair
Ryan Braun	630	6.8	129	-2	3.5	Larry Hisle
Jean Segura	589	4.8	92	-1	2.3	Royce Clayton
Scooter Gennett	581	4.9	98	-1	1.9	Rennie Stennett
Gerardo Parra	566	4.7	95	11	1.9	Mike Kingery
Khris Davis	481	5.5	112	0	1.8	John Valle
Aramis Ramirez	425	5.5	108	-4	1.8	Mike Lowell
Adam Lind	447	6.4	122	-2	1.6	Dick Sisler
Jason Rogers	547	4.5	90	-4	1.2	Brian Barden
Tyrone Taylor	599	3.9	79	3	1.0	John Palica
Yadiel Rivera	506	3.2	66	8	1.0	Jason Bowers
Orlando Arcia	554	3.5	71	3	1.0	Angel Chavez
Luis Jimenez	505	4.3	86	-2	0.9	Cliff Pastornicky
Martin Maldonado	241	3.5	74	3	0.9	Ray Stephens
Juan Centeno	316	3.5	70	3	0.8	Orlando Sanchez
Rickie Weeks	416	4.8	100	-10	0.7	Gary Cooper
Mark Reynolds	479	4.9	105	-4	0.6	Ty Van Burkleo
Elian Herrera	410	4.0	79	0	0.6	Tony Scott
Matt Clark	487	5.0	103	-3	0.5	Ivan Cruz
Kevin Mattison	388	3.0	63	6	0.3	Kevin Koslofski
Robinzon Diaz	297	3.8	75	-3	0.3	Paul Phillips
Taylor Green	302	3.9	80	-2	0.2	Josh Klimek
Hector Gomez	389	3.3	69	0	0.2	Tripp Cromer
Logan Schafer	397	3.7	74	-1	0.2	Leo Garcia
Caleb Gindl	492	4.0	84	1	0.1	Craig Cooper
Hainley Statia	327	3.4	71	0	0.1	Todd Crosby
Nick Delmonico	269	3.9	83	-5	0.0	Jamie Taylor
Jeff Bianchi	321	3.1	61	0	-0.1	Steve Sisco
Lyle Overbay	337	4.2	85	-1	-0.2	Bob Brenly
Sean Halton	474	4.0	82	-2	-0.3	Scott Bryant
Erik Komatsu	245	3.1	68	2	-0.4	Enoch Simmons
Eugenio Velez	431	4.2	85	-5	-0.4	Jalal Leach
Pete Orr	361	3.1	61	0	-0.4	Craig Reynolds
Irving Falu	434	3.3	68	-2	-0.4	Edgar Caceres
Hunter Morris	510	4.3	90	-4	-0.4	Brant Colamarino
Kentrail Davis	505	3.4	70	3	-0.5	Shawn Jeter
Lucas May	159	2.6	48	-3	-0.6	Luis Rodriguez
Jeremy Hermida	414	4.1	87	-8	-0.6	Ryan McGuire
Victor Roache	504	3.5	74	-3	-0.8	Keith Kimsey
Hector Gimenez	265	3.4	70	-4	-0.9	George Mitterwald
Nick Ramirez	514	3.3	70	-1	-1.6	Tate Seefried

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yovani Gallardo	R	29	30	30	180.3	151	59	21	175	85	79
Kyle Lohse	R	36	26	26	163.3	114	35	22	162	76	71
Matt Garza	R	31	24	24	141.3	118	42	16	132	64	60
Jimmy Nelson	R	26	28	26	150.3	132	66	13	142	71	66
Wily Peralta	R	26	31	31	177.3	140	71	20	176	89	83
Mike Fiers	R	30	27	22	133.3	122	36	19	122	64	60
Will Smith	L	25	73	0	73.7	87	29	8	64	31	29
Jonathan Broxton	R	31	54	0	49.7	42	16	5	45	20	19
Tom Gorzelanny	L	32	37	4	55.0	53	20	7	52	26	24
Francisco Rodriguez	R	33	62	0	58.0	64	20	9	50	26	24
John Ely	R	29	22	7	63.7	49	23	8	64	33	31
Jim Henderson	R	32	44	0	43.7	53	19	5	37	19	18
Jeremy Jeffress	R	27	53	0	62.3	58	31	5	58	29	27
Brandon Kintzler	R	30	64	0	63.0	41	20	6	64	30	28
Tyler Thornburg	R	26	45	0	50.7	48	26	5	46	25	23
Rob W00t3n	R	29	61	0	65.3	49	21	6	66	32	30
Wei-Chung Wang	L	23	18	8	44.7	33	12	8	49	27	25
Michael Blazek	R	26	47	8	78.0	65	43	10	77	44	41
Taylor Jungmann	R	25	26	25	135.0	96	71	17	140	81	76
Donovan Hand	R	29	46	6	85.3	58	27	12	91	48	45
Taylor Williams	R	23	21	13	91.3	78	33	17	95	56	52
Jose de la Torre	R	29	38	0	54.3	52	31	7	51	30	28
Tim Dillard	R	31	44	0	56.0	39	24	7	58	31	29
David Goforth	R	26	55	0	64.0	45	34	6	65	35	33
Mike Strong	L	26	27	5	68.0	66	40	11	66	42	39
Ariel Pena	R	26	25	24	117.3	110	74	20	115	74	69
Brooks Hall	R	25	15	13	61.3	35	33	10	69	42	39
Jay Jackson	R	27	29	15	98.3	85	49	18	104	64	60
Billy Buckner	R	31	21	19	95.0	59	46	17	107	65	61
Johnny Hellweg	R	26	18	17	81.7	52	72	9	89	58	54
Ty Wagner	R	24	25	24	127.0	94	64	25	138	87	81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yovani Gallardo	180.3	775	19.5%	7.6%	.285	3.94	3.92	102	101
Kyle Lohse	163.3	687	16.6%	5.1%	.274	3.91	4.17	101	108
Matt Garza	141.3	598	19.7%	7.0%	.278	3.82	3.82	99	99
Jimmy Nelson	150.3	659	20.0%	10.0%	.295	3.95	3.98	102	103
Wily Peralta	177.3	779	18.0%	9.1%	.288	4.21	4.27	109	111
Mike Fiers	133.3	558	21.9%	6.5%	.273	4.05	4.00	105	104
Will Smith	73.7	314	27.7%	9.2%	.299	3.54	3.27	92	85
Jonathan Broxton	49.7	210	20.0%	7.6%	.276	3.44	3.72	89	96
Tom Gorzelanny	55.0	237	22.4%	8.4%	.290	3.93	4.01	102	104
Francisco Rodriguez	58.0	244	26.2%	8.2%	.273	3.72	3.87	96	100
John Ely	63.7	278	17.6%	8.3%	.289	4.38	4.40	113	114
Jim Henderson	43.7	187	28.3%	10.2%	.293	3.71	3.45	96	89
Jeremy Jeffress	62.3	276	21.0%	11.2%	.296	3.90	3.80	101	98
Brandon Kintzler	63.0	273	15.0%	7.3%	.283	4.00	3.87	104	100
Tyler Thornburg	50.7	224	21.4%	11.6%	.287	4.09	4.07	106	105
Rob W00t3n	65.3	283	17.3%	7.4%	.294	4.13	3.78	107	98
Wei-Chung Wang	44.7	195	16.9%	6.2%	.293	5.04	4.80	130	124
Michael Blazek	78.0	354	18.4%	12.1%	.290	4.73	4.89	122	127
Taylor Jungmann	135.0	616	15.6%	11.5%	.291	5.07	5.07	131	131
Donovan Hand	85.3	374	15.5%	7.2%	.291	4.75	4.60	123	119
Taylor Williams	91.3	402	19.4%	8.2%	.290	5.12	5.04	133	131
Jose de la Torre	54.3	245	21.2%	12.7%	.292	4.64	4.72	120	122
Tim Dillard	56.0	250	15.6%	9.6%	.288	4.66	4.71	121	122
David Goforth	64.0	291	15.5%	11.7%	.292	4.64	4.58	120	119
Mike Strong	68.0	310	21.3%	12.9%	.291	5.16	5.14	134	133
Ariel Pena	117.3	541	20.3%	13.7%	.289	5.29	5.52	137	143
Brooks Hall	61.3	286	12.2%	11.5%	.289	5.72	5.87	148	152
Jay Jackson	98.3	448	19.0%	10.9%	.297	5.49	5.35	142	138
Billy Buckner	95.0	438	13.5%	10.5%	.290	5.78	5.77	150	150
Johnny Hellweg	81.7	406	12.8%	17.7%	.301	5.95	6.14	154	159
Ty Wagner	127.0	583	16.1%	11.0%	.288	5.74	5.86	149	152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Yovani Gallardo	180.3	7.54	2.95	1.05	98	2.4	Scott Kamieniecki
Kyle Lohse	163.3	6.28	1.93	1.21	99	2.2	Jay Witasick
Matt Garza	141.3	7.52	2.68	1.02	101	2.1	Cal Eldred
Jimmy Nelson	150.3	7.90	3.95	0.78	98	1.9	Brett Laxton
Wily Peralta	177.3	7.11	3.60	1.02	92	1.7	Mike Dunne
Mike Fiers	133.3	8.24	2.43	1.28	96	1.5	Hideki Irabu
Will Smith	73.7	10.62	3.54	0.98	109	0.5	Dennys Reyes
Jonathan Broxton	49.7	7.61	2.90	0.91	113	0.4	Mark Wohlers
Tom Gorzelanny	55.0	8.67	3.27	1.15	99	0.4	Ray Searage
Francisco Rodriguez	58.0	9.93	3.10	1.40	104	0.3	Rich DeLucia
John Ely	63.7	6.92	3.25	1.13	88	0.3	Jeff Bennett
Jim Henderson	43.7	10.92	3.91	1.03	104	0.2	Rich Croushore
Jeremy Jeffress	62.3	8.38	4.48	0.72	99	0.2	Mike Schultz
Brandon Kintzler	63.0	5.86	2.86	0.86	97	0.1	Jason Karnuth
Tyler Thornburg	50.7	8.52	4.62	0.89	95	0.0	Bob Gibson
Rob W00t3n	65.3	6.75	2.89	0.83	94	0.0	Jason Karnuth
Wei-Chung Wang	44.7	6.64	2.42	1.61	77	-0.1	Roberto Rivera
Michael Blazek	78.0	7.50	4.96	1.15	82	-0.2	Jake Robbins
Taylor Jungmann	135.0	6.40	4.73	1.13	76	-0.2	Brett Laxton
Donovan Hand	85.3	6.12	2.85	1.27	82	-0.3	Dale Mohorcic
Taylor Williams	91.3	7.69	3.25	1.68	76	-0.3	Oswaldo Peraza
Jose de la Torre	54.3	8.62	5.14	1.16	84	-0.4	Doug Robertson
Tim Dillard	56.0	6.27	3.86	1.13	83	-0.4	Jarod Juelsgaard
David Goforth	64.0	6.33	4.78	0.84	83	-0.4	Heathcliff Slocumb
Mike Strong	68.0	8.74	5.29	1.46	75	-0.5	Mike Bumatay
Ariel Pena	117.3	8.44	5.68	1.53	73	-0.5	Reggie Harris
Brooks Hall	61.3	5.14	4.85	1.47	68	-0.6	Steve Gay
Jay Jackson	98.3	7.78	4.49	1.65	71	-0.8	Eddie Candelario
Billy Buckner	95.0	5.59	4.36	1.61	67	-1.0	Ryan Jensen
Johnny Hellweg	81.7	5.73	7.93	0.99	65	-1.1	Rob Purvis
Ty Wagner	127.0	6.66	4.54	1.77	67	-1.3	Stacy Hollins

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.