2015 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
There are a number of players on this Yankees club projected not to produce wins at a rate commensurate with their salaries. The current market offers something like $6-8 million per win. Per ZiPS, Alex Rodriguez will receive about $18 million per one of those; Mark Teixeira, about the same; Carlos Beltran, about $25 million. In each case, durability is an issue beyond just declining skills. Regard: none is projected to record as many as 500 plate appearances.

A relative bargain within the context of the Yankee lineup is Chase Headley, who signed a four-year, $52 million contract with the team in December but is projected by ZiPS to play like someone roughly twice as good as that. This isn’t particularly surprising. As Dave Cameron noted earlier in the offseason, Headley’s profile — defensively above-average at third base with strong plate discipline but merely average power — hasn’t ever appealed greatly to the market. New York would appear to be the beneficiaries of this.

Pitchers
It’s generally the case with these ZiPS projections that, the closer a club’s relief ace appears to the top of the wins-projection list, the worse that is for the fate of the pitching staff as a whole. One oughtn’t discount the quality of Dellin Betances‘ 2014 season nor the talent which conspired to produce it. That he receives the second-highest win projection, however, among all Yankee pitchers speaks to trouble within the starting rotation.

As is the case with Beltran and Teixeira above, durability appears to be a concern for this staff — and is responsible for (at least) some of the muted forecasts. Michael Pineda, for example, profiles as an above-average pitcher on a per-inning basis. Unsurprisingly, however, ZiPS isn’t optimistic about Pineda’s odds of turning in a full complement of innings. CC Sabathia’s WAR forecast, to a lesser (but non-negligible) degree, is also deflated by a conservative innings projection.

Bench/Prospects
Absent from the depth-chart image below but likely to play a competent bench tole is Chris Young (409 PA, 1.5 WAR). After him, a small cadre of actual prospects — Aaron Judge, J.R. Murphy, Jose Pirela, Rob Refsnyder, and Gary Sanchez — all receive WAR projections between 0.8 and 1.1 WAR. Among rookie-eligible pitchers, Luis Severino (117.1 IP, 1.0 WAR) features the most encouraging projection. He was rated first overall among Yankees prospects by Kiley McDaniel last week.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Chase Headley	B	31	3B	570	74	127	25	1	20	73	9	4
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	31	CF	592	76	152	27	4	14	62	33	6
Brian McCann	L	31	C	488	54	110	15	1	21	74	1	1
Brett Gardner	L	31	LF	495	72	113	21	7	10	44	18	6
Didi Gregorius	L	25	SS	539	62	123	19	6	9	48	4	3
Chris Young	R	31	LF	409	50	82	20	1	15	48	10	4
Mark Teixeira	B	35	1B	377	47	77	13	0	17	65	1	1
Alex Rodriguez	R	39	3B	407	52	82	16	0	15	57	6	3
Gary Sanchez	R	22	C	500	58	100	20	0	13	63	2	1
Jose Pirela	R	25	2B	555	67	130	20	6	11	53	10	4
J.R. Murphy	R	24	C	407	44	88	18	1	11	43	1	1
Rob Refsnyder	R	24	2B	497	59	108	23	3	10	47	9	5
Aaron Judge	R	23	RF	566	73	115	17	3	19	68	1	0
Zelous Wheeler	R	28	3B	431	47	94	19	1	11	43	3	1
Stephen Drew	L	32	2B	382	36	72	18	3	9	40	2	1
Eric Jagielo	L	23	3B	359	46	72	12	0	15	47	0	0
Rob Segedin	R	26	3B	396	42	81	17	1	7	38	2	1
Carlos Beltran	B	38	RF	464	54	107	23	1	17	62	2	1
Brendan Ryan	R	33	SS	306	30	58	11	1	2	26	5	3
Greg Bird	L	22	1B	514	65	104	26	1	17	60	1	1
Brian Roberts	B	37	2B	308	36	68	14	3	6	27	4	3
Alfonso Soriano	R	39	RF	355	45	78	19	0	17	53	6	3
Garrett Jones	L	34	1B	471	56	103	23	2	21	61	1	1
Austin Romine	R	26	C	270	30	58	12	0	5	25	1	0
Jonathan Galvez	R	24	2B	430	55	93	20	2	8	45	9	5
Ramon Flores	L	23	RF	449	53	96	21	4	11	47	4	4
Mason Williams	L	23	CF	569	60	118	20	4	7	43	15	8
Dante Bichette Jr.	R	22	3B	547	59	111	22	0	13	59	1	2
Slade Heathcott	L	24	RF	236	24	48	10	2	5	24	7	4
Nick Noonan	L	26	SS	440	42	89	16	1	4	33	4	3
Taylor Dugas	L	25	LF	421	43	87	12	2	2	25	7	6
Tyler Austin	R	23	RF	444	51	96	18	3	10	45	3	1
Jake Cave	L	22	CF	602	64	135	26	6	7	46	10	8
Derek Jeter	R	41	SS	394	32	89	12	1	2	36	5	1
Kyle Roller	L	27	1B	511	60	98	20	2	21	63	1	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chase Headley	570	10.4%	25.4%	.174	.317	.253	.340	.427	.339
Jacoby Ellsbury	592	7.3%	14.5%	.143	.311	.281	.337	.424	.340
Brian McCann	488	8.0%	16.6%	.182	.260	.249	.316	.431	.325
Brett Gardner	495	8.9%	20.2%	.149	.314	.260	.333	.409	.327
Didi Gregorius	539	6.5%	17.6%	.118	.293	.251	.307	.369	.295
Chris Young	409	9.3%	24.2%	.183	.265	.225	.301	.408	.313
Mark Teixeira	377	10.9%	19.4%	.197	.249	.236	.326	.433	.332
Alex Rodriguez	407	9.8%	24.3%	.170	.270	.229	.312	.399	.314
Gary Sanchez	500	6.4%	23.6%	.128	.261	.217	.272	.345	.276
Jose Pirela	555	5.2%	15.9%	.127	.284	.252	.297	.379	.298
J.R. Murphy	407	6.4%	21.4%	.142	.275	.235	.286	.377	.293
Rob Refsnyder	497	8.2%	21.3%	.132	.293	.241	.310	.373	.305
Aaron Judge	566	10.4%	31.8%	.159	.314	.229	.311	.388	.311
Zelous Wheeler	431	6.3%	20.6%	.137	.279	.238	.295	.375	.299
Stephen Drew	382	9.7%	25.7%	.149	.265	.211	.285	.360	.285
Eric Jagielo	359	7.5%	32.3%	.176	.294	.223	.295	.399	.308
Rob Segedin	396	7.3%	22.2%	.112	.279	.228	.295	.340	.285
Carlos Beltran	464	7.3%	17.5%	.180	.274	.254	.310	.434	.326
Brendan Ryan	306	6.9%	20.6%	.069	.264	.212	.275	.281	.250
Greg Bird	514	10.9%	29.0%	.176	.302	.231	.319	.407	.322
Brian Roberts	308	7.5%	15.3%	.135	.270	.242	.300	.377	.297
Alfonso Soriano	355	4.2%	29.0%	.210	.281	.234	.270	.444	.308
Garrett Jones	471	7.6%	25.7%	.209	.281	.240	.297	.449	.324
Austin Romine	270	5.9%	21.1%	.108	.280	.232	.280	.340	.274
Jonathan Galvez	430	6.7%	27.0%	.122	.314	.237	.294	.359	.289
Ramon Flores	449	8.7%	19.6%	.153	.275	.237	.304	.390	.306
Mason Williams	569	6.2%	16.9%	.093	.262	.225	.274	.318	.262
Dante Bichette Jr.	547	6.6%	26.7%	.121	.282	.220	.276	.341	.276
Slade Heathcott	236	5.9%	33.5%	.133	.319	.220	.272	.353	.277
Nick Noonan	440	5.5%	26.4%	.073	.291	.217	.263	.290	.245
Taylor Dugas	421	9.0%	15.9%	.060	.284	.238	.326	.298	.284
Tyler Austin	444	6.8%	23.6%	.132	.290	.234	.288	.366	.292
Jake Cave	602	5.5%	25.1%	.105	.317	.241	.287	.346	.280
Derek Jeter	394	5.8%	13.5%	.056	.283	.248	.298	.304	.271
Kyle Roller	511	7.4%	35.2%	.188	.294	.213	.286	.401	.305

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Chase Headley	570	5.3	111	7	3.9	Corey Koskie
Jacoby Ellsbury	592	5.8	109	3	3.8	Mike Kreevich
Brian McCann	488	4.9	104	0	3.0	Matt Nokes
Brett Gardner	495	5.1	104	9	2.5	Delino DeShields
Didi Gregorius	539	4.0	86	1	1.6	Russ Adams
Chris Young	409	4.3	94	8	1.5	Jeff Guiel
Mark Teixeira	377	5.0	108	4	1.3	Roy Smalley
Alex Rodriguez	407	4.4	96	-2	1.2	Bob Brenly
Gary Sanchez	500	3.2	70	2	1.1	Rob Bowen
Jose Pirela	555	4.1	86	-1	1.1	Orlando Hudson
J.R. Murphy	407	3.8	82	-3	1.0	Damon Berryhill
Rob Refsnyder	497	4.1	89	-4	0.9	Glenn Hubbard
Aaron Judge	566	4.3	93	1	0.8	Daryl Clark
Zelous Wheeler	431	4.0	84	-1	0.7	Tony Zuniga
Stephen Drew	382	3.5	77	3	0.7	Steve Lombardozzi
Eric Jagielo	359	4.1	90	-4	0.6	Greg David
Rob Segedin	396	3.5	76	2	0.6	Jose Valdez
Carlos Beltran	464	4.9	103	-5	0.6	Tino Martinez
Brendan Ryan	306	2.6	55	7	0.5	Chris Petersen
Greg Bird	514	4.5	100	-2	0.4	Phil Plantier
Brian Roberts	308	4.0	86	-2	0.4	Terry Shumpert
Alfonso Soriano	355	4.2	94	0	0.4	Chad Mottola
Garrett Jones	471	4.7	103	-3	0.3	Dan Rohrmeier
Austin Romine	270	3.4	71	-2	0.3	Dave Van Gorder
Jonathan Galvez	430	3.7	80	-6	-0.1	Jed Hansen
Ramon Flores	449	4.1	91	-5	-0.1	Matt Bowser
Mason Williams	569	3.0	64	2	-0.2	Chris Frey
Dante Bichette Jr.	547	3.2	70	-3	-0.3	Juan Espinal
Slade Heathcott	236	3.3	72	1	-0.3	Tim Costo
Nick Noonan	440	2.6	53	3	-0.3	Bert Pena
Taylor Dugas	421	3.3	75	0	-0.4	Tonys Gutierrez
Tyler Austin	444	3.7	80	-2	-0.4	Erold Andrus
Jake Cave	602	3.4	75	-6	-0.4	Derrick May
Derek Jeter	394	3.3	68	-7	-0.4	Roy McMillan
Kyle Roller	511	4.0	88	-4	-0.5	John Sellick

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Masahiro Tanaka	R	26	25	25	167.0	158	33	18	154	70	65
Hiroki Kuroda	R	40	28	28	169.0	118	35	20	170	81	76
Dellin Betances	R	27	66	0	82.7	116	33	6	58	24	22
Ivan Nova	R	28	20	18	121.3	103	38	13	123	59	55
Michael Pineda	R	26	15	15	80.7	65	20	8	78	35	33
Nathan Eovaldi	R	25	28	28	159.7	121	48	18	171	86	80
CC Sabathia	L	34	18	18	118.0	106	30	16	120	61	57
Luis Severino	R	21	27	27	117.3	102	38	15	118	61	57
Andrew Miller	L	30	58	0	48.7	76	21	5	33	15	14
Adam Warren	R	27	62	0	75.3	72	25	7	67	31	29
Chris Capuano	L	36	30	18	109.0	92	36	14	114	59	55
David Carpenter	R	29	63	0	66.3	70	20	8	61	29	27
Jose De Paula	L	27	16	12	63.0	43	20	8	69	35	33
Chasen Shreve	L	24	58	0	68.7	72	25	8	64	32	30
Chris Martin	R	29	42	0	51.7	47	16	6	51	25	23
Rich Hill	L	35	45	0	38.3	42	21	4	34	18	17
Esmil Rogers	R	29	49	9	99.0	81	35	13	104	56	52
Andrew Bailey	R	31	22	0	20.7	25	8	4	19	11	10
Domingo German	R	22	23	23	116.7	106	72	15	118	71	66
Justin Wilson	L	27	69	0	64.7	68	37	8	57	33	31
Wilking Rodriguez	R	25	18	4	24.3	19	12	4	26	15	14
Chase Whitley	R	26	34	10	83.7	65	31	11	90	49	46
Jose Ramirez	R	25	25	0	35.7	36	21	5	34	20	19
Matt Daley	R	33	43	0	50.3	47	14	9	51	28	26
Danny Burawa	R	26	45	0	62.3	58	35	7	60	34	32
Brian Gordon	R	36	24	7	58.7	37	21	9	66	37	35
Branden Pinder	R	26	37	4	55.3	41	25	9	60	35	33
Alfredo Aceves	R	32	29	6	62.7	47	27	11	68	42	39
Jim Miller	R	33	40	0	58.7	51	28	10	61	36	34
Mark Montgomery	R	24	36	0	44.7	40	31	7	46	30	28
Scott Baker	R	33	21	11	75.7	53	21	18	86	52	49
Matthew Tracy	L	26	21	20	103.7	59	54	16	120	74	69
Bryan Mitchell	R	24	26	23	117.0	82	63	19	132	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Masahiro Tanaka	167.0	688	23.0%	4.8%	.289	3.50	3.50	86	87
Hiroki Kuroda	169.0	712	16.6%	4.9%	.281	4.05	4.11	100	102
Dellin Betances	82.7	339	34.2%	9.7%	.289	2.40	2.72	59	67
Ivan Nova	121.3	525	19.6%	7.2%	.305	4.08	4.11	101	101
Michael Pineda	80.7	340	19.1%	5.9%	.284	3.68	3.70	91	91
Nathan Eovaldi	159.7	698	17.3%	6.9%	.302	4.51	4.16	111	103
CC Sabathia	118.0	504	21.0%	6.0%	.299	4.35	4.05	107	100
Luis Severino	117.3	508	20.1%	7.5%	.298	4.37	4.32	108	107
Andrew Miller	48.7	200	38.0%	10.5%	.298	2.59	2.97	64	73
Adam Warren	75.3	318	22.6%	7.9%	.284	3.46	3.65	85	90
Chris Capuano	109.0	477	19.3%	7.5%	.301	4.54	4.25	112	105
David Carpenter	66.3	280	25.0%	7.1%	.296	3.66	3.73	90	92
Jose De Paula	63.0	278	15.5%	7.2%	.300	4.71	4.70	116	116
Chasen Shreve	68.7	295	24.4%	8.5%	.299	3.93	3.83	97	95
Chris Martin	51.7	222	21.2%	7.2%	.300	4.01	4.01	99	99
Rich Hill	38.3	170	24.7%	12.4%	.297	3.99	4.01	99	99
Esmil Rogers	99.0	436	18.6%	8.0%	.301	4.73	4.53	117	112
Andrew Bailey	20.7	89	28.1%	9.0%	.288	4.35	4.53	107	112
Domingo German	116.7	540	19.6%	13.3%	.301	5.09	5.11	126	126
Justin Wilson	64.7	288	23.6%	12.8%	.286	4.31	4.54	106	112
Wilking Rodriguez	24.3	111	17.1%	10.8%	.298	5.18	5.33	128	132
Chase Whitley	83.7	372	17.5%	8.3%	.304	4.95	4.72	122	117
Jose Ramirez	35.7	162	22.2%	13.0%	.302	4.79	5.10	118	126
Matt Daley	50.3	216	21.8%	6.5%	.294	4.65	4.63	115	114
Danny Burawa	62.3	282	20.6%	12.4%	.296	4.62	4.66	114	115
Brian Gordon	58.7	263	14.1%	8.0%	.295	5.37	5.23	133	129
Branden Pinder	55.3	251	16.3%	10.0%	.295	5.37	5.32	133	131
Alfredo Aceves	62.7	283	16.6%	9.5%	.292	5.60	5.44	138	134
Jim Miller	58.7	265	19.2%	10.6%	.295	5.22	5.29	129	131
Mark Montgomery	44.7	211	18.9%	14.7%	.300	5.64	5.80	139	143
Scott Baker	75.7	334	15.9%	6.3%	.284	5.83	5.84	144	144
Matthew Tracy	103.7	485	12.2%	11.1%	.297	5.99	5.85	148	145
Bryan Mitchell	117.0	546	15.0%	11.5%	.302	5.92	5.78	146	143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Masahiro Tanaka	167.0	8.51	1.78	0.97	113	3.4	James Shields
Hiroki Kuroda	169.0	6.28	1.86	1.07	98	2.2	Greg Maddux
Dellin Betances	82.7	12.62	3.59	0.65	165	1.9	Brad Lidge
Ivan Nova	121.3	7.64	2.82	0.96	97	1.5	Dickie Noles
Michael Pineda	80.7	7.25	2.23	0.89	108	1.4	Runelvys Hernandez
Nathan Eovaldi	159.7	6.82	2.71	1.01	88	1.1	Brian Moehler
CC Sabathia	118.0	8.08	2.29	1.22	91	1.1	Frank Tanana
Luis Severino	117.3	7.83	2.92	1.15	91	1.0	Anthony Telford
Andrew Miller	48.7	14.05	3.88	0.92	153	1.0	Rod Scurry
Adam Warren	75.3	8.61	2.99	0.84	114	0.7	Jerry Dipoto
Chris Capuano	109.0	7.60	2.97	1.16	87	0.6	Bill Krueger
David Carpenter	66.3	9.50	2.71	1.09	108	0.5	Brian Falkenborg
Jose De Paula	63.0	6.14	2.86	1.14	84	0.2	Trey Moore
Chasen Shreve	68.7	9.43	3.28	1.05	101	0.2	Felix Heredia
Chris Martin	51.7	8.18	2.79	1.04	99	0.1	Tim Layana
Rich Hill	38.3	9.87	4.93	0.94	99	0.1	Kevin Tolar
Esmil Rogers	99.0	7.36	3.18	1.18	84	0.0	Gus Gandarillas
Andrew Bailey	20.7	10.87	3.48	1.74	91	0.0	Jeff Austin
Domingo German	116.7	8.17	5.55	1.16	78	-0.1	Bill Mooneyham
Justin Wilson	64.7	9.46	5.15	1.11	92	-0.1	Greg McCarthy
Wilking Rodriguez	24.3	7.04	4.44	1.48	76	-0.1	Tommy Moore
Chase Whitley	83.7	6.99	3.33	1.18	80	-0.1	Yoel Hernandez
Jose Ramirez	35.7	9.08	5.29	1.26	83	-0.3	Josh Banks
Matt Daley	50.3	8.41	2.50	1.61	85	-0.3	Aquilino Lopez
Danny Burawa	62.3	8.38	5.06	1.01	86	-0.3	Marc Pisciotta
Brian Gordon	58.7	5.67	3.22	1.38	74	-0.4	Bob Scanlan
Branden Pinder	55.3	6.67	4.07	1.46	74	-0.6	Billy Taylor
Alfredo Aceves	62.7	6.75	3.88	1.58	71	-0.7	Vladimir Nunez
Jim Miller	58.7	7.82	4.29	1.53	76	-0.8	Mike Jeffcoat
Mark Montgomery	44.7	8.05	6.24	1.41	70	-0.8	Agustin Montero
Scott Baker	75.7	6.30	2.50	2.14	68	-0.9	Jeff Harris
Matthew Tracy	103.7	5.12	4.69	1.39	66	-1.3	Cristian Gonzalez
Bryan Mitchell	117.0	6.31	4.85	1.46	67	-1.3	Chad Paronto

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.