2015 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
There are a number of players on this Yankees club projected not to produce wins at a rate commensurate with their salaries. The current market offers something like $6-8 million per win. Per ZiPS, Alex Rodriguez will receive about $18 million per one of those; Mark Teixeira, about the same; Carlos Beltran, about $25 million. In each case, durability is an issue beyond just declining skills. Regard: none is projected to record as many as 500 plate appearances.

A relative bargain within the context of the Yankee lineup is Chase Headley, who signed a four-year, $52 million contract with the team in December but is projected by ZiPS to play like someone roughly twice as good as that. This isn’t particularly surprising. As Dave Cameron noted earlier in the offseason, Headley’s profile — defensively above-average at third base with strong plate discipline but merely average power — hasn’t ever appealed greatly to the market. New York would appear to be the beneficiaries of this.

Pitchers
It’s generally the case with these ZiPS projections that, the closer a club’s relief ace appears to the top of the wins-projection list, the worse that is for the fate of the pitching staff as a whole. One oughtn’t discount the quality of Dellin Betances‘ 2014 season nor the talent which conspired to produce it. That he receives the second-highest win projection, however, among all Yankee pitchers speaks to trouble within the starting rotation.

As is the case with Beltran and Teixeira above, durability appears to be a concern for this staff — and is responsible for (at least) some of the muted forecasts. Michael Pineda, for example, profiles as an above-average pitcher on a per-inning basis. Unsurprisingly, however, ZiPS isn’t optimistic about Pineda’s odds of turning in a full complement of innings. CC Sabathia’s WAR forecast, to a lesser (but non-negligible) degree, is also deflated by a conservative innings projection.

Bench/Prospects
Absent from the depth-chart image below but likely to play a competent bench tole is Chris Young (409 PA, 1.5 WAR). After him, a small cadre of actual prospects — Aaron Judge, J.R. Murphy, Jose Pirela, Rob Refsnyder, and Gary Sanchez — all receive WAR projections between 0.8 and 1.1 WAR. Among rookie-eligible pitchers, Luis Severino (117.1 IP, 1.0 WAR) features the most encouraging projection. He was rated first overall among Yankees prospects by Kiley McDaniel last week.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Yankees Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Chase Headley B 31 3B 570 74 127 25 1 20 73 9 4
Jacoby Ellsbury L 31 CF 592 76 152 27 4 14 62 33 6
Brian McCann L 31 C 488 54 110 15 1 21 74 1 1
Brett Gardner L 31 LF 495 72 113 21 7 10 44 18 6
Didi Gregorius L 25 SS 539 62 123 19 6 9 48 4 3
Chris Young R 31 LF 409 50 82 20 1 15 48 10 4
Mark Teixeira B 35 1B 377 47 77 13 0 17 65 1 1
Alex Rodriguez R 39 3B 407 52 82 16 0 15 57 6 3
Gary Sanchez R 22 C 500 58 100 20 0 13 63 2 1
Jose Pirela R 25 2B 555 67 130 20 6 11 53 10 4
J.R. Murphy R 24 C 407 44 88 18 1 11 43 1 1
Rob Refsnyder R 24 2B 497 59 108 23 3 10 47 9 5
Aaron Judge R 23 RF 566 73 115 17 3 19 68 1 0
Zelous Wheeler R 28 3B 431 47 94 19 1 11 43 3 1
Stephen Drew L 32 2B 382 36 72 18 3 9 40 2 1
Eric Jagielo L 23 3B 359 46 72 12 0 15 47 0 0
Rob Segedin R 26 3B 396 42 81 17 1 7 38 2 1
Carlos Beltran B 38 RF 464 54 107 23 1 17 62 2 1
Brendan Ryan R 33 SS 306 30 58 11 1 2 26 5 3
Greg Bird L 22 1B 514 65 104 26 1 17 60 1 1
Brian Roberts B 37 2B 308 36 68 14 3 6 27 4 3
Alfonso Soriano R 39 RF 355 45 78 19 0 17 53 6 3
Garrett Jones L 34 1B 471 56 103 23 2 21 61 1 1
Austin Romine R 26 C 270 30 58 12 0 5 25 1 0
Jonathan Galvez R 24 2B 430 55 93 20 2 8 45 9 5
Ramon Flores L 23 RF 449 53 96 21 4 11 47 4 4
Mason Williams L 23 CF 569 60 118 20 4 7 43 15 8
Dante Bichette Jr. R 22 3B 547 59 111 22 0 13 59 1 2
Slade Heathcott L 24 RF 236 24 48 10 2 5 24 7 4
Nick Noonan L 26 SS 440 42 89 16 1 4 33 4 3
Taylor Dugas L 25 LF 421 43 87 12 2 2 25 7 6
Tyler Austin R 23 RF 444 51 96 18 3 10 45 3 1
Jake Cave L 22 CF 602 64 135 26 6 7 46 10 8
Derek Jeter R 41 SS 394 32 89 12 1 2 36 5 1
Kyle Roller L 27 1B 511 60 98 20 2 21 63 1 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Chase Headley 570 10.4% 25.4% .174 .317 .253 .340 .427 .339
Jacoby Ellsbury 592 7.3% 14.5% .143 .311 .281 .337 .424 .340
Brian McCann 488 8.0% 16.6% .182 .260 .249 .316 .431 .325
Brett Gardner 495 8.9% 20.2% .149 .314 .260 .333 .409 .327
Didi Gregorius 539 6.5% 17.6% .118 .293 .251 .307 .369 .295
Chris Young 409 9.3% 24.2% .183 .265 .225 .301 .408 .313
Mark Teixeira 377 10.9% 19.4% .197 .249 .236 .326 .433 .332
Alex Rodriguez 407 9.8% 24.3% .170 .270 .229 .312 .399 .314
Gary Sanchez 500 6.4% 23.6% .128 .261 .217 .272 .345 .276
Jose Pirela 555 5.2% 15.9% .127 .284 .252 .297 .379 .298
J.R. Murphy 407 6.4% 21.4% .142 .275 .235 .286 .377 .293
Rob Refsnyder 497 8.2% 21.3% .132 .293 .241 .310 .373 .305
Aaron Judge 566 10.4% 31.8% .159 .314 .229 .311 .388 .311
Zelous Wheeler 431 6.3% 20.6% .137 .279 .238 .295 .375 .299
Stephen Drew 382 9.7% 25.7% .149 .265 .211 .285 .360 .285
Eric Jagielo 359 7.5% 32.3% .176 .294 .223 .295 .399 .308
Rob Segedin 396 7.3% 22.2% .112 .279 .228 .295 .340 .285
Carlos Beltran 464 7.3% 17.5% .180 .274 .254 .310 .434 .326
Brendan Ryan 306 6.9% 20.6% .069 .264 .212 .275 .281 .250
Greg Bird 514 10.9% 29.0% .176 .302 .231 .319 .407 .322
Brian Roberts 308 7.5% 15.3% .135 .270 .242 .300 .377 .297
Alfonso Soriano 355 4.2% 29.0% .210 .281 .234 .270 .444 .308
Garrett Jones 471 7.6% 25.7% .209 .281 .240 .297 .449 .324
Austin Romine 270 5.9% 21.1% .108 .280 .232 .280 .340 .274
Jonathan Galvez 430 6.7% 27.0% .122 .314 .237 .294 .359 .289
Ramon Flores 449 8.7% 19.6% .153 .275 .237 .304 .390 .306
Mason Williams 569 6.2% 16.9% .093 .262 .225 .274 .318 .262
Dante Bichette Jr. 547 6.6% 26.7% .121 .282 .220 .276 .341 .276
Slade Heathcott 236 5.9% 33.5% .133 .319 .220 .272 .353 .277
Nick Noonan 440 5.5% 26.4% .073 .291 .217 .263 .290 .245
Taylor Dugas 421 9.0% 15.9% .060 .284 .238 .326 .298 .284
Tyler Austin 444 6.8% 23.6% .132 .290 .234 .288 .366 .292
Jake Cave 602 5.5% 25.1% .105 .317 .241 .287 .346 .280
Derek Jeter 394 5.8% 13.5% .056 .283 .248 .298 .304 .271
Kyle Roller 511 7.4% 35.2% .188 .294 .213 .286 .401 .305

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Chase Headley 570 5.3 111 7 3.9 Corey Koskie
Jacoby Ellsbury 592 5.8 109 3 3.8 Mike Kreevich
Brian McCann 488 4.9 104 0 3.0 Matt Nokes
Brett Gardner 495 5.1 104 9 2.5 Delino DeShields
Didi Gregorius 539 4.0 86 1 1.6 Russ Adams
Chris Young 409 4.3 94 8 1.5 Jeff Guiel
Mark Teixeira 377 5.0 108 4 1.3 Roy Smalley
Alex Rodriguez 407 4.4 96 -2 1.2 Bob Brenly
Gary Sanchez 500 3.2 70 2 1.1 Rob Bowen
Jose Pirela 555 4.1 86 -1 1.1 Orlando Hudson
J.R. Murphy 407 3.8 82 -3 1.0 Damon Berryhill
Rob Refsnyder 497 4.1 89 -4 0.9 Glenn Hubbard
Aaron Judge 566 4.3 93 1 0.8 Daryl Clark
Zelous Wheeler 431 4.0 84 -1 0.7 Tony Zuniga
Stephen Drew 382 3.5 77 3 0.7 Steve Lombardozzi
Eric Jagielo 359 4.1 90 -4 0.6 Greg David
Rob Segedin 396 3.5 76 2 0.6 Jose Valdez
Carlos Beltran 464 4.9 103 -5 0.6 Tino Martinez
Brendan Ryan 306 2.6 55 7 0.5 Chris Petersen
Greg Bird 514 4.5 100 -2 0.4 Phil Plantier
Brian Roberts 308 4.0 86 -2 0.4 Terry Shumpert
Alfonso Soriano 355 4.2 94 0 0.4 Chad Mottola
Garrett Jones 471 4.7 103 -3 0.3 Dan Rohrmeier
Austin Romine 270 3.4 71 -2 0.3 Dave Van Gorder
Jonathan Galvez 430 3.7 80 -6 -0.1 Jed Hansen
Ramon Flores 449 4.1 91 -5 -0.1 Matt Bowser
Mason Williams 569 3.0 64 2 -0.2 Chris Frey
Dante Bichette Jr. 547 3.2 70 -3 -0.3 Juan Espinal
Slade Heathcott 236 3.3 72 1 -0.3 Tim Costo
Nick Noonan 440 2.6 53 3 -0.3 Bert Pena
Taylor Dugas 421 3.3 75 0 -0.4 Tonys Gutierrez
Tyler Austin 444 3.7 80 -2 -0.4 Erold Andrus
Jake Cave 602 3.4 75 -6 -0.4 Derrick May
Derek Jeter 394 3.3 68 -7 -0.4 Roy McMillan
Kyle Roller 511 4.0 88 -4 -0.5 John Sellick

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Masahiro Tanaka R 26 25 25 167.0 158 33 18 154 70 65
Hiroki Kuroda R 40 28 28 169.0 118 35 20 170 81 76
Dellin Betances R 27 66 0 82.7 116 33 6 58 24 22
Ivan Nova R 28 20 18 121.3 103 38 13 123 59 55
Michael Pineda R 26 15 15 80.7 65 20 8 78 35 33
Nathan Eovaldi R 25 28 28 159.7 121 48 18 171 86 80
CC Sabathia L 34 18 18 118.0 106 30 16 120 61 57
Luis Severino R 21 27 27 117.3 102 38 15 118 61 57
Andrew Miller L 30 58 0 48.7 76 21 5 33 15 14
Adam Warren R 27 62 0 75.3 72 25 7 67 31 29
Chris Capuano L 36 30 18 109.0 92 36 14 114 59 55
David Carpenter R 29 63 0 66.3 70 20 8 61 29 27
Jose De Paula L 27 16 12 63.0 43 20 8 69 35 33
Chasen Shreve L 24 58 0 68.7 72 25 8 64 32 30
Chris Martin R 29 42 0 51.7 47 16 6 51 25 23
Rich Hill L 35 45 0 38.3 42 21 4 34 18 17
Esmil Rogers R 29 49 9 99.0 81 35 13 104 56 52
Andrew Bailey R 31 22 0 20.7 25 8 4 19 11 10
Domingo German R 22 23 23 116.7 106 72 15 118 71 66
Justin Wilson L 27 69 0 64.7 68 37 8 57 33 31
Wilking Rodriguez R 25 18 4 24.3 19 12 4 26 15 14
Chase Whitley R 26 34 10 83.7 65 31 11 90 49 46
Jose Ramirez R 25 25 0 35.7 36 21 5 34 20 19
Matt Daley R 33 43 0 50.3 47 14 9 51 28 26
Danny Burawa R 26 45 0 62.3 58 35 7 60 34 32
Brian Gordon R 36 24 7 58.7 37 21 9 66 37 35
Branden Pinder R 26 37 4 55.3 41 25 9 60 35 33
Alfredo Aceves R 32 29 6 62.7 47 27 11 68 42 39
Jim Miller R 33 40 0 58.7 51 28 10 61 36 34
Mark Montgomery R 24 36 0 44.7 40 31 7 46 30 28
Scott Baker R 33 21 11 75.7 53 21 18 86 52 49
Matthew Tracy L 26 21 20 103.7 59 54 16 120 74 69
Bryan Mitchell R 24 26 23 117.0 82 63 19 132 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Masahiro Tanaka 167.0 688 23.0% 4.8% .289 3.50 3.50 86 87
Hiroki Kuroda 169.0 712 16.6% 4.9% .281 4.05 4.11 100 102
Dellin Betances 82.7 339 34.2% 9.7% .289 2.40 2.72 59 67
Ivan Nova 121.3 525 19.6% 7.2% .305 4.08 4.11 101 101
Michael Pineda 80.7 340 19.1% 5.9% .284 3.68 3.70 91 91
Nathan Eovaldi 159.7 698 17.3% 6.9% .302 4.51 4.16 111 103
CC Sabathia 118.0 504 21.0% 6.0% .299 4.35 4.05 107 100
Luis Severino 117.3 508 20.1% 7.5% .298 4.37 4.32 108 107
Andrew Miller 48.7 200 38.0% 10.5% .298 2.59 2.97 64 73
Adam Warren 75.3 318 22.6% 7.9% .284 3.46 3.65 85 90
Chris Capuano 109.0 477 19.3% 7.5% .301 4.54 4.25 112 105
David Carpenter 66.3 280 25.0% 7.1% .296 3.66 3.73 90 92
Jose De Paula 63.0 278 15.5% 7.2% .300 4.71 4.70 116 116
Chasen Shreve 68.7 295 24.4% 8.5% .299 3.93 3.83 97 95
Chris Martin 51.7 222 21.2% 7.2% .300 4.01 4.01 99 99
Rich Hill 38.3 170 24.7% 12.4% .297 3.99 4.01 99 99
Esmil Rogers 99.0 436 18.6% 8.0% .301 4.73 4.53 117 112
Andrew Bailey 20.7 89 28.1% 9.0% .288 4.35 4.53 107 112
Domingo German 116.7 540 19.6% 13.3% .301 5.09 5.11 126 126
Justin Wilson 64.7 288 23.6% 12.8% .286 4.31 4.54 106 112
Wilking Rodriguez 24.3 111 17.1% 10.8% .298 5.18 5.33 128 132
Chase Whitley 83.7 372 17.5% 8.3% .304 4.95 4.72 122 117
Jose Ramirez 35.7 162 22.2% 13.0% .302 4.79 5.10 118 126
Matt Daley 50.3 216 21.8% 6.5% .294 4.65 4.63 115 114
Danny Burawa 62.3 282 20.6% 12.4% .296 4.62 4.66 114 115
Brian Gordon 58.7 263 14.1% 8.0% .295 5.37 5.23 133 129
Branden Pinder 55.3 251 16.3% 10.0% .295 5.37 5.32 133 131
Alfredo Aceves 62.7 283 16.6% 9.5% .292 5.60 5.44 138 134
Jim Miller 58.7 265 19.2% 10.6% .295 5.22 5.29 129 131
Mark Montgomery 44.7 211 18.9% 14.7% .300 5.64 5.80 139 143
Scott Baker 75.7 334 15.9% 6.3% .284 5.83 5.84 144 144
Matthew Tracy 103.7 485 12.2% 11.1% .297 5.99 5.85 148 145
Bryan Mitchell 117.0 546 15.0% 11.5% .302 5.92 5.78 146 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Masahiro Tanaka 167.0 8.51 1.78 0.97 113 3.4 James Shields
Hiroki Kuroda 169.0 6.28 1.86 1.07 98 2.2 Greg Maddux
Dellin Betances 82.7 12.62 3.59 0.65 165 1.9 Brad Lidge
Ivan Nova 121.3 7.64 2.82 0.96 97 1.5 Dickie Noles
Michael Pineda 80.7 7.25 2.23 0.89 108 1.4 Runelvys Hernandez
Nathan Eovaldi 159.7 6.82 2.71 1.01 88 1.1 Brian Moehler
CC Sabathia 118.0 8.08 2.29 1.22 91 1.1 Frank Tanana
Luis Severino 117.3 7.83 2.92 1.15 91 1.0 Anthony Telford
Andrew Miller 48.7 14.05 3.88 0.92 153 1.0 Rod Scurry
Adam Warren 75.3 8.61 2.99 0.84 114 0.7 Jerry Dipoto
Chris Capuano 109.0 7.60 2.97 1.16 87 0.6 Bill Krueger
David Carpenter 66.3 9.50 2.71 1.09 108 0.5 Brian Falkenborg
Jose De Paula 63.0 6.14 2.86 1.14 84 0.2 Trey Moore
Chasen Shreve 68.7 9.43 3.28 1.05 101 0.2 Felix Heredia
Chris Martin 51.7 8.18 2.79 1.04 99 0.1 Tim Layana
Rich Hill 38.3 9.87 4.93 0.94 99 0.1 Kevin Tolar
Esmil Rogers 99.0 7.36 3.18 1.18 84 0.0 Gus Gandarillas
Andrew Bailey 20.7 10.87 3.48 1.74 91 0.0 Jeff Austin
Domingo German 116.7 8.17 5.55 1.16 78 -0.1 Bill Mooneyham
Justin Wilson 64.7 9.46 5.15 1.11 92 -0.1 Greg McCarthy
Wilking Rodriguez 24.3 7.04 4.44 1.48 76 -0.1 Tommy Moore
Chase Whitley 83.7 6.99 3.33 1.18 80 -0.1 Yoel Hernandez
Jose Ramirez 35.7 9.08 5.29 1.26 83 -0.3 Josh Banks
Matt Daley 50.3 8.41 2.50 1.61 85 -0.3 Aquilino Lopez
Danny Burawa 62.3 8.38 5.06 1.01 86 -0.3 Marc Pisciotta
Brian Gordon 58.7 5.67 3.22 1.38 74 -0.4 Bob Scanlan
Branden Pinder 55.3 6.67 4.07 1.46 74 -0.6 Billy Taylor
Alfredo Aceves 62.7 6.75 3.88 1.58 71 -0.7 Vladimir Nunez
Jim Miller 58.7 7.82 4.29 1.53 76 -0.8 Mike Jeffcoat
Mark Montgomery 44.7 8.05 6.24 1.41 70 -0.8 Agustin Montero
Scott Baker 75.7 6.30 2.50 2.14 68 -0.9 Jeff Harris
Matthew Tracy 103.7 5.12 4.69 1.39 66 -1.3 Cristian Gonzalez
Bryan Mitchell 117.0 6.31 4.85 1.46 67 -1.3 Chad Paronto

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Derb
Guest
Derb

Huh. I missed Phelps going to the Marlins. This may have been answered elsewhere (or not, since most people probably don’t care), but what are his ZiPS for the Marlins?

joeredford
Guest

I dont get this site. Why is jeter on the yankee list? We are way overthinking stats. WAR means nothing huh what is it good for absolutely nothing uh huh. OBP is all we need to know. WAR is merely a guess.