2015 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / New York NL / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Unsurprisingly, given the zeal with which general manager AJ Preller et al. sought to turn over the roster this offseason, the four most encouraging WAR projections for Padres hitters belong to players who were acquired over the past month-plus. Surprisingly, perhaps — at least given the profile of the deal — none of those four are Matt Kemp. He’s forecast to produce among the top offensive lines on the club, but also -9 runs defensively in a corner-outfield spot. Wil Myers‘ defensive projection in center field (-12 runs) also fails to inspire hope.

An earlier version of the depth-chart image for the Padres — published by the author via Twitter on Tuesday night — featured Derek Norris and Tim Federowicz combining for five projected wins. In point of fact, the sum of their WAR forecasts is closer to five than any other whole number; the sum of their plate appearances is above 800, though, also. The number has been prorated to four wins here. Still enough, that, to profile as one of the team’s strongest positions.

Pitchers
The order in which the starters appear in the depth-chart image below isn’t a reflection of how Bud Black will arrange his rotation, but merely a collection of the top-five pitchers by projected WAR who are also candidates to start for San Diego. Omitted from that graphic is left-hander Robbie Erlin (112.0 IP, -0.1 WAR), replaced right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne (125.2, 1.2 WAR). Also omitted is Josh Johnson (104.1, 0.5 WAR), although the only recent data available for him to a model like ZiPS is that he hasn’t pitched.

With regard to the bullpen, San Diego’s produced the league’s median WAR figure in 2014. The midseason trade of Huston Street to the Angels removed some depth from the relief corps, but most of the other principals — Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Quackenbush, Dale Thayer — remain.

Bench/Prospects
As noted by Kiley McDaniel in his comprehensive examination of the Padres system, 11 prospects who profiled as 40-grade future-value players or better (on the 20-80 scouting scale) were packaged in trades over the course of 12 days in December. The returns for the Padres, in most cases, benefit the major-league roster — although there are near-ready prospects, too. Among field players, Taylor Lindsey (acquired from the Angels) is projected to produce wins at a near league-average rate. Right-hander Seth Streich (acquired from Oakland) features the best such mark among rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Padres Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Justin Upton R 27 LF 647 92 146 29 3 23 77 12 5
Derek Norris R 26 C 420 47 86 17 1 11 42 5 2
Wil Myers R 24 CF 552 67 132 27 2 17 57 9 2
Tim Federowicz R 27 C 405 41 86 20 1 8 37 1 0
Yangervis Solarte B 27 3B 572 60 135 25 1 8 47 1 1
Jedd Gyorko R 26 2B 535 66 117 24 1 17 68 3 2
Everth Cabrera B 28 SS 467 59 105 18 3 3 29 33 9
Taylor Lindsey L 23 2B 550 58 126 22 6 10 44 5 4
Abraham Almonte B 26 CF 537 62 119 22 5 8 42 15 6
Matt Kemp R 30 RF 529 73 129 26 2 16 71 12 4
Yonder Alonso L 28 1B 435 44 105 23 1 9 47 6 1
Jake Goebbert L 27 LF 481 63 98 19 6 12 50 4 2
Will Middlebrooks R 26 3B 444 39 97 16 1 13 46 4 1
Cameron Maybin R 28 CF 359 47 78 14 4 5 29 13 4
Austin Hedges R 22 C 434 43 89 20 2 5 39 3 5
Alexi Amarista L 26 SS 469 51 106 18 4 6 46 9 3
Jose Rondon R 21 SS 473 42 104 20 3 1 30 12 10
Will Venable L 32 CF 469 62 104 18 5 11 44 17 6
Reymond Fuentes L 24 CF 478 58 100 19 5 5 38 24 6
Tommy Medica R 27 1B 411 54 87 21 3 13 49 4 1
Carlos Quentin R 32 LF 276 33 57 15 0 10 38 0 0
Clint Barmes R 36 SS 286 25 59 10 0 4 20 1 1
Griff Erickson B 27 C 203 22 38 8 1 6 18 1 2
Travis Jankowski L 24 CF 353 41 76 10 3 1 22 26 8
Brett Wallace L 28 1B 548 64 120 21 1 16 53 1 1
Tyler Greene R 31 SS 426 48 88 17 2 7 34 9 4
Jason Lane R 38 P 53 7 12 3 0 1 6 0 0
Brooks Conrad B 35 2B 214 28 42 10 1 7 25 0 1
Hunter Renfroe R 23 RF 585 70 122 29 2 16 64 7 3
Cory Spangenberg L 24 2B 483 52 108 16 9 4 42 18 11
Rocky Gale R 27 C 236 21 49 8 0 1 18 1 1
Jake Lemmerman R 26 SS 371 39 65 16 1 5 29 5 1
Alex Dickerson L 25 RF 385 43 88 21 3 7 41 4 4
Cody Decker R 28 1B 464 55 85 19 3 16 52 1 2
Rymer Liriano R 24 LF 520 61 104 23 3 9 47 18 9
Travis Buck L 31 LF 175 20 36 8 0 2 15 0 1
Yeison Asencio R 25 RF 548 62 132 25 4 8 53 5 4
Jason Hagerty B 27 1B 299 37 58 14 1 6 31 1 1
Trayvon Robinson B 27 LF 448 43 85 17 2 7 32 11 6
Gabriel Quintana R 22 3B 533 61 114 23 1 10 52 5 2
Brian Bixler R 32 SS 341 34 60 9 1 3 19 7 4
Cody Overbeck R 29 1B 409 42 84 16 1 12 42 0 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Justin Upton 647 10.5% 24.4% .184 .315 .258 .342 .442 .344
Derek Norris 420 12.1% 23.3% .143 .293 .237 .334 .380 .321
Wil Myers 552 9.2% 24.3% .166 .330 .267 .335 .433 .337
Tim Federowicz 405 7.2% 25.9% .125 .301 .234 .290 .359 .285
Yangervis Solarte 572 7.3% 10.3% .098 .277 .260 .316 .358 .299
Jedd Gyorko 535 7.5% 22.8% .158 .283 .239 .299 .397 .306
Everth Cabrera 467 7.7% 21.0% .078 .319 .251 .312 .329 .290
Taylor Lindsey 550 6.5% 14.4% .126 .278 .250 .303 .376 .299
Abraham Almonte 537 7.4% 21.6% .115 .303 .244 .301 .359 .293
Matt Kemp 529 8.7% 24.6% .164 .337 .271 .335 .435 .334
Yonder Alonso 435 8.0% 14.3% .132 .294 .266 .326 .398 .318
Jake Goebbert 481 9.8% 21.8% .157 .277 .231 .313 .388 .310
Will Middlebrooks 444 5.4% 24.8% .138 .287 .235 .282 .373 .290
Cameron Maybin 359 7.5% 20.6% .113 .292 .239 .299 .352 .290
Austin Hedges 434 4.6% 22.4% .096 .274 .219 .259 .315 .251
Alexi Amarista 469 5.3% 14.7% .101 .276 .245 .285 .346 .274
Jose Rondon 473 5.3% 16.3% .066 .285 .239 .281 .305 .257
Will Venable 469 6.6% 22.8% .143 .297 .242 .298 .385 .300
Reymond Fuentes 478 7.9% 25.1% .103 .314 .235 .304 .338 .289
Tommy Medica 411 7.3% 28.7% .177 .305 .234 .302 .411 .317
Carlos Quentin 276 9.4% 17.4% .190 .258 .242 .337 .432 .342
Clint Barmes 286 5.2% 20.6% .084 .275 .226 .277 .310 .256
Griff Erickson 203 9.4% 27.6% .154 .267 .209 .287 .363 .285
Travis Jankowski 353 6.2% 20.4% .058 .295 .235 .285 .293 .264
Brett Wallace 548 6.8% 29.0% .141 .317 .240 .301 .381 .301
Tyler Greene 426 4.9% 31.5% .106 .315 .223 .269 .329 .265
Jason Lane 53 7.5% 22.6% .128 .314 .255 .321 .383 .313
Brooks Conrad 214 8.4% 30.8% .172 .289 .219 .286 .391 .291
Hunter Renfroe 585 6.2% 28.4% .151 .293 .226 .279 .377 .287
Cory Spangenberg 483 4.6% 24.4% .102 .316 .240 .278 .342 .268
Rocky Gale 236 3.4% 16.9% .049 .259 .218 .244 .267 .226
Jake Lemmerman 371 9.4% 29.4% .102 .280 .199 .285 .301 .266
Alex Dickerson 385 4.9% 23.9% .134 .309 .245 .289 .379 .291
Cody Decker 464 8.2% 34.5% .174 .279 .202 .272 .376 .287
Rymer Liriano 520 6.2% 31.0% .117 .305 .218 .275 .335 .271
Travis Buck 175 6.3% 21.1% .088 .276 .225 .280 .313 .265
Yeison Asencio 548 3.3% 14.2% .109 .282 .252 .280 .361 .279
Jason Hagerty 299 8.7% 25.8% .127 .280 .216 .294 .343 .285
Trayvon Robinson 448 6.9% 32.1% .102 .298 .207 .263 .309 .254
Gabriel Quintana 533 2.4% 31.9% .107 .312 .224 .251 .331 .258
Brian Bixler 341 6.2% 30.5% .064 .277 .192 .251 .256 .229
Cody Overbeck 409 4.4% 29.3% .140 .281 .218 .257 .358 .271

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Justin Upton 647 5.5 124 -1 3.2 Derrek Lee
Derek Norris 420 4.5 105 -3 2.6 George Williams
Wil Myers 552 5.5 119 -12 2.3 Ron Swoboda
Tim Federowicz 405 3.7 86 4 2.1 Russ McGinnis
Yangervis Solarte 572 4.1 94 1 2.0 Terry Jorgensen
Jedd Gyorko 535 4.2 98 -4 1.6 Bret Boone
Everth Cabrera 467 4.1 85 -3 1.5 Royce Clayton
Taylor Lindsey 550 4.0 95 -3 1.5 David Nix
Abraham Almonte 537 3.9 89 -1 1.5 Xavier Paul
Matt Kemp 529 5.5 120 -9 1.5 Cleon Jones
Yonder Alonso 435 4.9 108 3 1.3 Pete LaCock
Jake Goebbert 481 4.3 101 1 1.2 Scott Khoury
Will Middlebrooks 444 3.8 87 1 1.2 Eric Hardgrave
Cameron Maybin 359 3.9 87 1 1.1 McKay Christensen
Austin Hedges 434 2.7 65 6 1.1 Henry Blanco
Alexi Amarista 469 3.6 81 -1 1.1 Chris Lombardozzi
Jose Rondon 473 2.9 69 6 1.0 Geoff Blum
Will Venable 469 4.2 95 -7 1.0 Al Martin
Reymond Fuentes 478 3.9 85 -4 1.0 Herm Winningham
Tommy Medica 411 4.4 103 1 0.9 Nigel Wilson
Carlos Quentin 276 5.2 120 -5 0.8 Gary Roenicke
Clint Barmes 286 3.0 69 5 0.8 Kevin Baez
Griff Erickson 203 3.4 86 -3 0.5 Bret Hemphill
Travis Jankowski 353 3.3 67 3 0.5 Leo Sutherland
Brett Wallace 548 4.1 95 -1 0.4 Chris Wakeland
Tyler Greene 426 3.1 71 -2 0.4 Danny Klassen
Jason Lane 53 4.5 102 -1 0.3 Andres Galarraga
Brooks Conrad 214 3.8 93 -3 0.3 Dave McKay
Hunter Renfroe 585 3.7 87 -1 0.2 Richie Sexson
Cory Spangenberg 483 3.3 78 -3 0.1 Ramon Caraballo
Rocky Gale 236 2.2 47 3 0.1 Charlie Greene
Jake Lemmerman 371 3.0 69 -5 0.0 Greg Thissen
Alex Dickerson 385 3.8 91 -3 0.0 Rod Allen
Cody Decker 464 3.4 84 2 -0.1 John Nelson
Rymer Liriano 520 3.2 75 3 -0.1 Billy Beane
Travis Buck 175 2.9 71 -1 -0.4 Jeremy Ware
Yeison Asencio 548 3.6 83 -3 -0.4 Ray Cabrera
Jason Hagerty 299 3.4 83 -3 -0.5 Vito Chiaravalloti
Trayvon Robinson 448 2.7 64 4 -0.5 DaRond Stovall
Gabriel Quintana 533 2.9 66 -6 -0.8 Tim Holland
Brian Bixler 341 2.1 47 -2 -0.8 Jackie Hernandez
Cody Overbeck 409 3.1 75 -1 -0.9 Terrel Hansen

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Tyson Ross R 28 28 28 175.7 174 64 12 148 64 60
Andrew Cashner R 28 23 23 134.7 107 37 10 123 52 49
Ian Kennedy R 30 29 29 181.7 176 60 18 168 79 74
Odrisamer Despaigne R 28 22 22 125.7 101 48 10 114 55 51
Joaquin Benoit R 37 55 0 54.0 65 16 4 39 15 14
Brandon Morrow R 30 14 14 77.3 75 30 6 68 32 30
Seth Streich R 24 22 22 113.7 73 38 8 116 54 50
Josh Johnson R 31 18 18 104.3 87 37 9 103 49 46
Kevin Quackenbush R 26 64 0 64.7 65 28 3 54 24 22
Shawn Kelley R 31 57 0 54.0 64 20 4 44 19 18
Nick Vincent R 28 66 0 61.3 63 19 5 52 22 21
R.J. Alvarez R 24 46 0 51.3 58 23 3 40 18 17
Aaron Northcraft R 25 25 25 133.3 102 59 11 132 65 61
Matt Wisler R 22 26 26 135.3 112 44 16 132 66 62
Tim Stauffer R 33 36 7 77.0 64 26 6 74 34 32
Cory Luebke L 30 5 5 28.0 23 9 2 26 12 11
Eric Stults L 35 26 25 145.7 95 39 16 153 73 68
Casey Kelly R 25 9 9 48.3 36 12 4 50 22 21
Frank Garces L 25 67 0 72.7 74 29 6 63 29 27
Jerry Sullivan R 27 53 0 66.7 61 20 6 61 27 25
Dale Thayer R 34 64 0 58.7 54 17 6 53 24 22
Jason Lane L 38 17 14 93.0 48 18 10 101 47 44
Troy Patton L 29 42 0 41.3 36 12 4 38 17 16
Brandon Maurer R 24 66 0 71.0 61 23 5 66 30 28
James Needy R 24 26 24 132.7 89 55 12 135 68 64
Scott Elbert L 29 28 0 22.0 20 8 2 20 10 9
Marcos Mateo R 31 29 0 34.3 31 15 3 31 15 14
Juan Oramas L 25 20 19 97.7 78 40 11 97 51 48
Alex Torres L 27 65 0 57.7 58 37 4 48 26 24
Robbie Erlin L 24 23 21 112.0 82 36 13 116 59 55
Michael Nix R 32 22 7 57.0 37 24 5 59 30 28
Leonel Campos R 27 51 9 80.3 91 54 8 69 41 38
Tayron Guerrero R 24 35 2 47.0 43 29 4 43 24 22
Stephen Kohlscheen R 26 47 0 68.3 58 27 8 66 34 32
Hector Ambriz R 31 53 0 60.0 42 24 6 60 31 29
Josh Geer R 32 28 19 125.3 63 38 14 142 72 67
Keyvius Sampson R 24 33 18 102.0 92 69 16 99 64 60
Elliot Morris R 23 24 23 116.3 82 60 20 126 78 73

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Tyson Ross 175.7 739 23.5% 8.7% .283 3.07 3.22 87 91
Andrew Cashner 134.7 564 19.0% 6.6% .277 3.27 3.31 93 94
Ian Kennedy 181.7 773 22.8% 7.8% .293 3.67 3.56 104 101
Odrisamer Despaigne 125.7 539 18.7% 8.9% .278 3.65 3.85 104 109
Joaquin Benoit 54.0 217 30.0% 7.4% .267 2.33 2.52 66 72
Brandon Morrow 77.3 330 22.7% 9.1% .285 3.49 3.41 99 97
Seth Streich 113.7 495 14.7% 7.7% .293 3.96 3.93 112 111
Josh Johnson 104.3 453 19.2% 8.2% .297 3.97 3.62 113 103
Kevin Quackenbush 64.7 276 23.5% 10.1% .288 3.06 3.03 87 86
Shawn Kelley 54.0 226 28.3% 8.8% .292 3.00 2.67 85 76
Nick Vincent 61.3 255 24.7% 7.5% .285 3.08 3.17 87 90
R.J. Alvarez 51.3 217 26.7% 10.6% .287 2.98 3.10 85 88
Aaron Northcraft 133.3 591 17.3% 10.0% .294 4.12 4.19 117 119
Matt Wisler 135.3 582 19.2% 7.6% .289 4.12 4.17 117 118
Tim Stauffer 77.0 331 19.3% 7.9% .293 3.74 3.54 106 100
Cory Luebke 28.0 119 19.3% 7.6% .282 3.54 3.39 100 96
Eric Stults 145.7 629 15.1% 6.2% .288 4.20 4.08 119 116
Casey Kelly 48.3 207 17.4% 5.8% .305 3.91 3.71 111 105
Frank Garces 72.7 310 23.9% 9.4% .289 3.34 3.41 95 97
Jerry Sullivan 66.7 281 21.7% 7.1% .289 3.37 3.55 96 101
Dale Thayer 58.7 246 21.9% 6.9% .281 3.37 3.44 96 98
Jason Lane 93.0 398 12.1% 4.5% .286 4.26 4.18 121 119
Troy Patton 41.3 174 20.7% 6.9% .281 3.48 3.45 99 98
Brandon Maurer 71.0 302 20.2% 7.6% .288 3.55 3.22 101 91
James Needy 132.7 588 15.1% 9.4% .290 4.34 4.39 123 125
Scott Elbert 22.0 94 21.3% 8.5% .286 3.68 3.73 104 106
Marcos Mateo 34.3 149 20.8% 10.1% .286 3.67 3.86 104 110
Juan Oramas 97.7 430 18.1% 9.3% .291 4.42 4.38 125 124
Alex Torres 57.7 258 22.5% 14.3% .284 3.75 4.11 106 116
Robbie Erlin 112.0 488 16.8% 7.4% .292 4.42 4.22 125 120
Michael Nix 57.0 254 14.6% 9.4% .292 4.42 4.40 125 125
Leonel Campos 80.3 364 25.0% 14.8% .296 4.26 4.37 121 124
Tayron Guerrero 47.0 213 20.2% 13.6% .291 4.21 4.45 119 126
Stephen Kohlscheen 68.3 298 19.5% 9.1% .289 4.21 4.28 119 121
Hector Ambriz 60.0 264 15.9% 9.1% .286 4.35 4.24 123 120
Josh Geer 125.3 556 11.3% 6.8% .296 4.81 4.66 136 132
Keyvius Sampson 102.0 474 19.4% 14.6% .286 5.29 5.58 150 158
Elliot Morris 116.3 535 15.3% 11.2% .290 5.65 5.69 160 161

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Tyson Ross 175.7 8.91 3.28 0.61 111 2.9 Darryl Kile
Andrew Cashner 134.7 7.15 2.47 0.67 104 1.9 Mike Scott
Ian Kennedy 181.7 8.72 2.97 0.89 93 1.6 Rich Gale
Odrisamer Despaigne 125.7 7.23 3.44 0.72 94 1.2 Chris Brock
Joaquin Benoit 54.0 10.83 2.67 0.67 146 0.9 Tom Henke
Brandon Morrow 77.3 8.73 3.49 0.70 98 0.9 Darren Dreifort
Seth Streich 113.7 5.78 3.01 0.63 86 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Josh Johnson 104.3 7.51 3.19 0.78 86 0.5 Everett Stull
Kevin Quackenbush 64.7 9.04 3.89 0.42 112 0.5 Bobby Jenks
Shawn Kelley 54.0 10.67 3.33 0.67 114 0.4 Frank LaCorte
Nick Vincent 61.3 9.25 2.79 0.73 111 0.4 Mike Adams
R.J. Alvarez 51.3 10.18 4.04 0.53 115 0.4 Ryan Bukvich
Aaron Northcraft 133.3 6.89 3.98 0.74 83 0.4 Jeff Fulchino
Matt Wisler 135.3 7.45 2.93 1.06 83 0.4 Gar Finnvold
Tim Stauffer 77.0 7.48 3.04 0.70 91 0.3 Britt Reames
Cory Luebke 28.0 7.39 2.89 0.64 97 0.3 Greg Mathews
Eric Stults 145.7 5.87 2.41 0.99 81 0.3 Terry Mulholland
Casey Kelly 48.3 6.71 2.24 0.75 87 0.3 Rich Fischer
Frank Garces 72.7 9.16 3.59 0.74 102 0.3 Kenny Rogers
Jerry Sullivan 66.7 8.23 2.70 0.81 101 0.2 Rich Monteleone
Dale Thayer 58.7 8.28 2.61 0.92 101 0.2 Rusty Meacham
Jason Lane 93.0 4.65 1.74 0.97 80 0.1 Chris Michalak
Troy Patton 41.3 7.85 2.62 0.87 98 0.1 Shawn Barton
Brandon Maurer 71.0 7.73 2.92 0.63 96 0.1 Danny Rueckel
James Needy 132.7 6.04 3.73 0.81 79 0.0 Jake Dittler
Scott Elbert 22.0 8.18 3.27 0.82 93 0.0 Erik Plantenberg
Marcos Mateo 34.3 8.13 3.94 0.79 93 0.0 Gregg Olson
Juan Oramas 97.7 7.19 3.68 1.01 77 -0.1 Mike Bynum
Alex Torres 57.7 9.05 5.77 0.62 91 -0.1 Brian Snyder
Robbie Erlin 112.0 6.59 2.89 1.04 77 -0.1 John Peterson
Michael Nix 57.0 5.84 3.79 0.79 77 -0.2 Bob Scanlan
Leonel Campos 80.3 10.20 6.05 0.90 80 -0.2 John Briscoe
Tayron Guerrero 47.0 8.23 5.55 0.77 81 -0.2 Jeff Smith
Stephen Kohlscheen 68.3 7.64 3.56 1.05 81 -0.5 Travis Wade
Hector Ambriz 60.0 6.30 3.60 0.90 79 -0.6 Mike Sullivan
Josh Geer 125.3 4.53 2.73 1.01 71 -0.8 R.A. Dickey
Keyvius Sampson 102.0 8.12 6.09 1.41 65 -1.3 Rob Radlosky
Elliot Morris 116.3 6.35 4.64 1.55 60 -1.9 Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Brian
Guest
Brian

So I’ll start. 16 homers for Kemp? Seems a bit light.

Phillies113
Member

A lot of the power-hitting guys the Padres acquired seem to be a little light in projected home runs, but you have to remember they’re trying to hit the balls out of Petco; no easy task. And I’m sure the Padres will be more than happy to have those 16 from Kemp, as well as from the others.

Last year, 4 Padres hit at least 10 home runs; ZiPS is projecting 16 to at least match that total. Justin Upton even breaches 20, per ZiPS. The Padres don’t need to have the second coming of Barry Bonds (although I’m sure they wouldn’t have said no). What they have here should be sufficient, power wise.

That defense though…hoo boy.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip

Quick point: ZiPS doesn’t project 16 players to exceed 10 homers, it projects that there are 16 players who could do it given their projected playing time (which basically assumes a starting role most of the time.) Most of them won’t do it because they won’t get enough PA.