2015 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
With regard to their field players, San Francisco doesn’t currently feature so much a stars-and-scrubs sort of configuration as they do a Buster-Posey-surrounded-by-roughly-average-players one. Posey is projected by ZiPS not only to record the highest wOBA among Giants hitters by over 20 points but also to play slightly above-average defense at a position that receives the largest positive adjustment in the calculation of WAR.

Of some note, perhaps, is ZiPS’ seeming pessimism regarding Hunter Pence. After averaging five wins per season over the last two years, Pence is forecast to produce only half that figure in 2015. In fact, there’s probably less decline projected for ZiPS than one might think at first glance. Pence, for example, has recorded nearly 1.5 wins due to baserunning alone over the last two years after having posted mostly just average seasons by that measure before that. Even just applying regression here accounts for some of Pence’s seeming decline.

Pitchers
The San Francisco Giants won the 2014 World Series and they did it (ultimately) with a rotation featuring Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Tim Lincecum — plus some combination of Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit. That’s different, however, than suggesting that Bumgarner, Hudson, et al., are necessarily a championship-level rotation. Giants starters accounted for the third-lowest collective WAR among the majors’ 30 clubs in 2014, nor does ZiPS’ 2015 forecast call for much improvement in this regard.

One pitcher of note for 2015 — in particular for how projections might or might not be able to account for his unusual career and lack of arm speed — is right-hander Yusmeiro Petit. He recorded the second-highest WAR among all Giants pitchers in 2014 but also produced an ERA about a run worse than his FIP (a disparity he’s exhibited through his career). ZiPS regards that gap between his ERA and FIP as a real thing, thus rendering Petit’s projection less encouraging than it might otherwise be based on fielding-independent numbers alone.

Bench/Prospects
Neglected in the discussion of San Francisco’s batting core above but also the recipient of an encouraging projection is catcher Andrew Susac. His competence will allow Bruce Bochy to deploy Posey at first base for purposes of rest and against left-handed pitchers. Should recent acquisition Casey McGehee implode entirely, both Matt Duffy and Adam Duvall would appear to be potentially useful alternatives at third base. Among pitchers, right-hander Clayton Blackburn appears to be the most qualified among the Giants’ minor-league pitchers to prevent runs in the majors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Buster Posey	R	28	C	597	72	159	31	2	19	87	2	1
Hunter Pence	R	32	RF	674	94	164	30	6	19	85	11	4
Brandon Crawford	L	28	SS	532	56	115	22	6	9	60	3	3
Brandon Belt	L	27	1B	428	56	98	22	2	14	51	7	3
Andrew Susac	R	25	C	393	46	80	15	1	7	37	1	1
Angel Pagan	B	33	CF	472	66	121	23	5	5	39	16	7
Joe Panik	L	24	2B	642	75	155	25	5	4	55	5	3
Casey McGehee	R	32	3B	543	49	126	25	1	7	61	2	2
Matt Duffy	R	24	SS	494	54	111	20	3	4	48	15	5
Gregor Blanco	L	31	CF	443	53	96	16	5	4	37	16	6
Adam Duvall	R	26	3B	508	59	106	21	3	15	58	3	1
Brandon Hicks	R	29	2B	410	46	72	17	2	11	40	4	2
Tony Abreu	B	30	2B	375	39	87	20	3	5	36	3	2
Carlos Triunfel	R	25	SS	478	49	110	21	3	5	43	4	3
Hector Sanchez	B	25	C	268	21	59	12	0	5	41	0	1
Ehire Adrianza	B	25	2B	362	37	71	15	3	2	24	8	4
Joaquin Arias	R	30	3B	280	26	68	11	2	2	26	3	1
Daniel Carbonell	R	24	CF	166	17	39	7	2	2	15	6	2
Dan Uggla	R	35	2B	387	44	66	11	1	10	42	1	1
Marco Scutaro	R	39	2B	217	25	52	8	1	1	12	1	0
Blake Miller	R	25	2B	395	38	82	16	3	3	34	4	1
Adalberto Santos	R	27	2B	295	30	61	12	2	2	24	10	5
Justin Maxwell	R	31	RF	302	35	58	12	2	7	30	5	3
Jarrett Parker	L	26	RF	519	57	94	17	5	10	48	12	7
Gary Brown	R	26	CF	618	71	131	25	5	7	50	25	15
Tyler Horan	L	24	RF	452	50	94	20	4	12	47	9	5
Mac Williamson	R	24	RF	289	35	61	12	0	5	27	5	1
Travis Ishikawa	L	31	LF	326	31	67	14	1	6	35	0	0
Juan Ciriaco	R	31	LF	186	19	40	6	1	3	17	7	1
Guillermo Quiroz	R	33	C	244	23	49	11	1	3	21	0	0
Skyler Stromsmoe	B	31	2B	304	32	56	10	2	1	18	6	6
Mark Minicozzi	R	32	1B	418	48	86	17	0	7	37	1	1
Kelby Tomlinson	R	25	2B	457	46	88	10	4	2	31	22	8
Juan Perez	R	28	RF	442	50	99	23	3	6	38	11	6
Tyler Colvin	L	29	LF	373	37	74	16	6	7	39	4	1
Darren Ford	R	29	LF	325	34	67	9	2	3	23	21	10
Tyler LaTorre	L	32	C	159	14	28	5	0	1	10	1	0
Brett Jackson	L	26	RF	407	42	71	12	5	8	36	11	7
Brian Ragira	R	23	1B	435	43	87	17	1	8	42	2	2
Chris Dominguez	R	28	RF	508	49	107	20	2	10	50	9	5
Angel Villalona	R	24	1B	479	45	90	20	3	9	45	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Buster Posey	597	9.2%	12.7%	.173	.317	.301	.367	.474	.363
Hunter Pence	674	7.1%	18.5%	.161	.303	.265	.320	.426	.327
Brandon Crawford	532	8.6%	20.9%	.129	.294	.242	.309	.371	.292
Brandon Belt	428	10.3%	25.0%	.180	.324	.259	.341	.439	.340
Andrew Susac	393	9.7%	29.3%	.109	.320	.229	.311	.338	.294
Angel Pagan	472	6.6%	12.3%	.110	.309	.278	.325	.388	.314
Joe Panik	642	6.7%	11.8%	.080	.295	.264	.316	.344	.293
Casey McGehee	543	8.8%	18.8%	.099	.309	.258	.322	.357	.301
Matt Duffy	494	7.3%	18.6%	.085	.301	.248	.307	.333	.288
Gregor Blanco	443	9.9%	19.4%	.098	.305	.246	.324	.344	.298
Adam Duvall	508	6.1%	23.6%	.154	.272	.226	.282	.380	.294
Brandon Hicks	410	8.8%	34.9%	.147	.285	.196	.275	.343	.276
Tony Abreu	375	3.2%	17.1%	.117	.285	.246	.278	.363	.280
Carlos Triunfel	478	3.1%	18.4%	.094	.292	.245	.278	.339	.270
Hector Sanchez	268	4.9%	23.9%	.108	.293	.237	.276	.345	.272
Ehire Adrianza	362	7.5%	21.5%	.083	.282	.220	.285	.303	.260
Joaquin Arias	280	2.9%	12.9%	.079	.287	.257	.281	.336	.267
Daniel Carbonell	166	4.8%	22.3%	.109	.316	.250	.295	.359	.295
Dan Uggla	387	12.7%	27.9%	.130	.262	.200	.313	.330	.292
Marco Scutaro	217	7.8%	8.8%	.067	.291	.268	.329	.335	.296
Blake Miller	395	5.1%	25.1%	.085	.297	.225	.274	.310	.263
Adalberto Santos	295	8.8%	21.4%	.083	.295	.231	.304	.314	.277
Justin Maxwell	302	7.6%	31.8%	.136	.297	.212	.281	.348	.282
Jarrett Parker	519	8.7%	37.6%	.123	.324	.203	.286	.326	.276
Gary Brown	618	4.9%	21.7%	.098	.288	.231	.282	.329	.271
Tyler Horan	452	6.0%	29.0%	.153	.295	.224	.277	.377	.288
Mac Williamson	289	6.6%	26.0%	.103	.304	.233	.298	.336	.288
Travis Ishikawa	326	7.7%	26.1%	.116	.299	.229	.298	.345	.285
Juan Ciriaco	186	5.4%	16.7%	.099	.266	.234	.277	.333	.275
Guillermo Quiroz	244	4.9%	24.6%	.097	.277	.216	.259	.313	.255
Skyler Stromsmoe	304	9.2%	20.4%	.063	.268	.211	.296	.274	.256
Mark Minicozzi	418	8.6%	28.7%	.102	.315	.229	.301	.331	.284
Kelby Tomlinson	457	7.0%	24.1%	.058	.281	.212	.272	.270	.248
Juan Perez	442	3.8%	21.3%	.113	.292	.238	.273	.351	.275
Tyler Colvin	373	5.9%	28.4%	.141	.285	.214	.263	.355	.273
Darren Ford	325	6.2%	23.7%	.074	.290	.224	.276	.298	.259
Tyler LaTorre	159	8.2%	28.3%	.056	.276	.196	.266	.252	.239
Brett Jackson	407	9.1%	39.6%	.126	.321	.195	.276	.321	.268
Brian Ragira	435	5.5%	30.3%	.107	.296	.215	.264	.322	.261
Chris Dominguez	508	3.1%	30.1%	.111	.298	.221	.250	.332	.258
Angel Villalona	479	4.0%	31.1%	.118	.276	.200	.244	.318	.250

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Buster Posey	597	6.7	141	2	6.4	Spud Davis
Hunter Pence	674	5.1	113	-1	2.5	Gary Ward
Brandon Crawford	532	4.0	95	4	2.4	Stephen Drew
Brandon Belt	428	5.5	123	1	1.9	Roger Repoz
Andrew Susac	393	3.7	88	1	1.9	Maximiliano Ramirez
Angel Pagan	472	4.8	105	-3	1.8	Jim Piersall
Joe Panik	642	4.0	90	0	1.8	Martin Prado
Casey McGehee	543	4.1	96	-1	1.7	Brook Jacoby
Matt Duffy	494	3.8	85	0	1.6	Mike Sharperson
Gregor Blanco	443	4.1	93	-4	1.1	Greg Tubbs
Adam Duvall	508	3.8	89	-2	1.1	Corey Erickson
Brandon Hicks	410	3.2	77	3	0.8	Trace Coquillette
Tony Abreu	375	3.6	83	2	0.8	Fred Manrique
Carlos Triunfel	478	3.3	77	-1	0.7	Luis Garcia
Hector Sanchez	268	3.3	78	-1	0.6	Gilberto Reyes
Ehire Adrianza	362	3.0	70	4	0.5	Manuel Francois
Joaquin Arias	280	3.5	77	3	0.5	Francisco Matos
Daniel Carbonell	166	4.0	88	0	0.5	Ramon Cedeno
Dan Uggla	387	3.5	86	-5	0.4	Rico Petrocelli
Marco Scutaro	217	4.1	92	-3	0.4	Mark Loretta
Blake Miller	395	3.0	68	3	0.3	Juan Delgado
Adalberto Santos	295	3.4	79	-1	0.3	David Bacani
Justin Maxwell	302	3.3	80	3	0.3	Doug Frobel
Jarrett Parker	519	3.1	76	5	0.2	Brad Snyder
Gary Brown	618	3.2	76	-3	0.2	Mike Asche
Tyler Horan	452	3.6	86	0	0.2	Brandon Allen
Mac Williamson	289	3.6	83	-1	0.1	Wil Culmer
Travis Ishikawa	326	3.6	85	-2	-0.1	Orsino Hill
Juan Ciriaco	186	3.6	75	-1	-0.2	Manny Martinez
Guillermo Quiroz	244	2.8	64	-4	-0.2	George Mitterwald
Skyler Stromsmoe	304	2.5	66	-1	-0.2	Doug Baker
Mark Minicozzi	418	3.5	82	0	-0.4	Chris Saunders
Kelby Tomlinson	457	2.7	57	1	-0.4	Emmanuel Garcia
Juan Perez	442	3.4	79	-1	-0.4	Kerry Valrie
Tyler Colvin	373	3.3	77	-1	-0.4	Rob Lukachyk
Darren Ford	325	2.9	66	2	-0.5	Billy Hall
Tyler LaTorre	159	2.3	51	-6	-0.6	Chad Moeller
Brett Jackson	407	2.9	72	-1	-0.6	Chris Dickerson
Brian Ragira	435	2.9	68	-1	-1.3	Leo Daigle
Chris Dominguez	508	2.9	66	-5	-1.7	Travis Wilson
Angel Villalona	479	2.6	61	-2	-2.0	Jonas Hamlin

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Madison Bumgarner	L	25	32	32	210.0	202	48	18	176	71	66
Jake Peavy	R	34	26	26	163.7	130	42	15	151	65	61
Tim Hudson	R	39	24	24	151.3	106	36	12	151	66	62
Matt Cain	R	30	22	22	135.3	114	40	16	121	59	55
Clayton Blackburn	R	22	22	22	116.3	96	31	10	111	49	46
Chris Heston	R	27	24	23	138.3	99	48	11	133	62	58
Yusmeiro Petit	R	30	30	18	125.7	112	29	14	120	56	52
Ryan Vogelsong	R	37	24	24	139.0	103	46	14	138	67	63
Sergio Romo	R	32	62	0	53.7	55	12	5	45	18	17
George Kontos	R	30	59	0	74.7	69	22	6	66	28	26
Ty Blach	L	24	23	23	131.3	83	43	11	135	64	60
Mike Kickham	L	26	29	25	141.7	113	64	11	139	70	65
Kyle Crick	R	22	21	20	82.0	92	62	7	69	40	37
Santiago Casilla	R	34	56	0	51.7	42	18	4	45	19	18
Hunter Strickland	R	26	49	0	46.7	45	11	4	42	17	16
Derek Law	R	24	37	0	43.3	45	17	3	36	16	15
Tim Lincecum	R	31	30	27	163.0	149	66	19	156	82	77
Jean Machi	R	33	65	0	62.7	49	18	5	56	25	23
Jeremy Affeldt	L	36	52	0	47.3	36	16	2	43	18	17
Ray Black	R	25	39	0	34.0	43	17	2	25	13	12
Cody Hall	R	27	49	0	53.0	52	19	4	47	21	20
Austin Fleet	R	28	32	13	104.3	73	42	9	104	51	48
Jake Dunning	R	26	48	2	70.0	50	26	5	67	31	29
Erik Cordier	R	29	50	0	55.3	60	33	4	46	24	22
Joan Gregorio	R	23	18	16	83.0	67	42	8	80	43	40
Javier Lopez	L	37	60	0	33.0	26	13	2	30	14	13
Dontrelle Willis	L	33	3	1	7.7	4	4	1	8	4	4
Brett Bochy	R	27	44	0	57.3	51	24	6	52	26	24
Adalberto Mejia	L	22	20	20	100.0	72	35	12	103	54	50
Sandy Rosario	R	29	37	0	40.7	31	16	4	40	19	18
Shane Loux	R	35	15	3	27.3	13	10	2	29	15	14
J.C. Gutierrez	R	31	48	0	50.3	37	15	5	49	24	22
Steven Okert	L	23	53	0	65.0	61	29	6	60	30	28
Phil McCormick	L	26	56	0	61.0	51	31	4	57	29	27
Andrew Carignan	R	28	27	0	34.3	32	26	3	31	18	17
Mike Broadway	R	28	21		26.7	21	11	4	27	15	14
Dan Runzler	L	30	42		45.0	41	33	4	41	25	23
Adam Reifer	R	29	42		54.7	46	34	6	52	30	28
Chris Stratton	R	24	23	22	117.3	86	60	14	122	68	64
Nik Turley	L	25	20	19	96.7	69	58	11	97	58	54
Jason Berken	R	31	24	22	129.0	68	50	14	144	75	70
Mitchell Boggs	R	31	52		62.7	34	31	6	66	35	33

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Madison Bumgarner	210.0	854	23.7%	5.6%	.273	2.83	2.95	81	85
Jake Peavy	163.7	684	19.0%	6.1%	.277	3.35	3.53	96	101
Tim Hudson	151.3	641	16.5%	5.6%	.288	3.69	3.43	106	98
Matt Cain	135.3	567	20.1%	7.1%	.267	3.66	3.85	105	110
Clayton Blackburn	116.3	491	19.6%	6.3%	.290	3.56	3.48	102	100
Chris Heston	138.3	596	16.6%	8.1%	.283	3.77	3.84	108	110
Yusmeiro Petit	125.7	526	21.3%	5.5%	.289	3.72	3.47	107	99
Ryan Vogelsong	139.0	601	17.1%	7.7%	.288	4.08	3.97	117	114
Sergio Romo	53.7	218	25.2%	5.5%	.280	2.85	2.95	82	85
George Kontos	74.7	312	22.1%	7.0%	.282	3.13	3.14	90	90
Ty Blach	131.3	572	14.5%	7.5%	.290	4.11	3.96	118	114
Mike Kickham	141.7	628	18.0%	10.2%	.296	4.13	3.96	118	114
Kyle Crick	82.0	377	24.4%	16.4%	.294	4.06	4.38	116	126
Santiago Casilla	51.7	218	19.3%	8.3%	.270	3.14	3.43	90	98
Hunter Strickland	46.7	193	23.3%	5.7%	.290	3.09	3.08	89	88
Derek Law	43.3	183	24.6%	9.3%	.285	3.12	3.13	89	90
Tim Lincecum	163.0	711	21.0%	9.3%	.290	4.25	4.00	122	115
Jean Machi	62.7	262	18.7%	6.9%	.271	3.30	3.40	95	97
Jeremy Affeldt	47.3	201	17.9%	8.0%	.285	3.23	3.17	93	91
Ray Black	34.0	144	29.9%	11.8%	.288	3.18	2.97	91	85
Cody Hall	53.0	225	23.1%	8.4%	.293	3.40	3.27	97	94
Austin Fleet	104.3	459	15.9%	9.2%	.289	4.14	4.17	119	119
Jake Dunning	70.0	303	16.5%	8.6%	.284	3.73	3.76	107	108
Erik Cordier	55.3	245	24.5%	13.5%	.294	3.58	3.84	103	110
Joan Gregorio	83.0	371	18.1%	11.3%	.289	4.34	4.36	124	125
Javier Lopez	33.0	142	18.3%	9.2%	.280	3.55	3.18	102	91
Dontrelle Willis	7.7	35	11.4%	11.4%	.268	4.70	5.27	135	151
Brett Bochy	57.3	248	20.6%	9.7%	.281	3.77	3.95	108	113
Adalberto Mejia	100.0	438	16.4%	8.0%	.291	4.50	4.41	129	127
Sandy Rosario	40.7	178	17.4%	9.0%	.285	3.98	3.92	114	112
Shane Loux	27.3	121	10.8%	8.3%	.285	4.61	4.27	132	122
J.C. Gutierrez	50.3	215	17.2%	7.0%	.280	3.93	3.72	113	107
Steven Okert	65.0	284	21.5%	10.2%	.293	3.88	3.82	111	109
Phil McCormick	61.0	271	18.8%	11.4%	.293	3.98	3.91	114	112
Andrew Carignan	34.3	160	20.0%	16.3%	.289	4.46	4.78	128	137
Mike Broadway	26.7	118	17.8%	9.3%	.284	4.72	4.79	135	137
Dan Runzler	45.0	209	19.6%	15.8%	.289	4.60	4.60	132	132
Adam Reifer	54.7	250	18.4%	13.6%	.286	4.61	4.78	132	137
Chris Stratton	117.3	534	16.1%	11.2%	.295	4.91	4.89	141	140
Nik Turley	96.7	445	15.5%	13.0%	.285	5.03	5.07	144	145
Jason Berken	129.0	581	11.7%	8.6%	.295	4.88	4.74	140	136
Mitchell Boggs	62.7	285	11.9%	10.9%	.286	4.74	4.75	136	136

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner	210.0	8.66	2.06	0.77	122	4.3	Eric Milton
Jake Peavy	163.7	7.15	2.31	0.82	103	2.2	Kevin Tapani
Tim Hudson	151.3	6.31	2.14	0.71	94	1.4	Tim Belcher
Matt Cain	135.3	7.58	2.66	1.06	94	1.3	Scott Elarton
Clayton Blackburn	116.3	7.43	2.40	0.77	97	1.3	Elizardo Ramirez
Chris Heston	138.3	6.44	3.12	0.72	91	1.1	Ben Hendrickson
Yusmeiro Petit	125.7	8.02	2.08	1.00	93	1.0	Brian Sweeney
Ryan Vogelsong	139.0	6.67	2.98	0.91	85	0.6	Bob Welch
Sergio Romo	53.7	9.22	2.01	0.84	121	0.6	Blas Minor
George Kontos	74.7	8.31	2.65	0.72	110	0.5	Don Cooper
Ty Blach	131.3	5.69	2.95	0.75	84	0.5	Thomas Biko
Mike Kickham	141.7	7.18	4.06	0.70	83	0.5	Lance Caraccioli
Kyle Crick	82.0	10.10	6.80	0.77	85	0.4	Trevor Hutchinson
Santiago Casilla	51.7	7.31	3.13	0.70	110	0.4	Don Aase
Hunter Strickland	46.7	8.67	2.12	0.77	112	0.3	Mike Connolly
Derek Law	43.3	9.35	3.53	0.62	111	0.3	Troy Percival
Tim Lincecum	163.0	8.23	3.64	1.05	81	0.3	Cal Eldred
Jean Machi	62.7	7.03	2.58	0.72	104	0.3	Kirk Bullinger
Jeremy Affeldt	47.3	6.85	3.04	0.38	107	0.3	Vic Darensbourg
Ray Black	34.0	11.38	4.50	0.53	109	0.2	Armando Benitez
Cody Hall	53.0	8.83	3.23	0.68	102	0.2	Jose Veras
Austin Fleet	104.3	6.30	3.62	0.78	83	0.2	Daven Bond
Jake Dunning	70.0	6.43	3.34	0.64	92	0.1	Scott Munter
Erik Cordier	55.3	9.76	5.37	0.65	96	0.1	Calvin Jones
Joan Gregorio	83.0	7.27	4.55	0.87	79	0.1	Miguel Batista
Javier Lopez	33.0	7.09	3.55	0.55	97	0.0	Vic Darensbourg
Dontrelle Willis	7.7	4.68	4.68	1.17	73	0.0	Elmer Riddle
Brett Bochy	57.3	8.01	3.77	0.94	92	-0.1	Dan Kite
Adalberto Mejia	100.0	6.48	3.15	1.08	77	-0.1	Travis Blackley
Sandy Rosario	40.7	6.86	3.54	0.88	87	-0.2	Mike Gardiner
Shane Loux	27.3	4.29	3.30	0.66	75	-0.2	Bob Miller
J.C. Gutierrez	50.3	6.62	2.68	0.89	88	-0.2	Lee Gardner
Steven Okert	65.0	8.45	4.02	0.83	89	-0.2	Jesus Pena
Phil McCormick	61.0	7.52	4.57	0.59	87	-0.3	Tom Thurberg
Andrew Carignan	34.3	8.40	6.82	0.79	77	-0.4	Eric Cammack
Mike Broadway	26.7	7.08	3.71	1.35	73	-0.4	Gary Neibauer
Dan Runzler	45.0	8.20	6.60	0.80	75	-0.5	Mike Kinnunen
Adam Reifer	54.7	7.57	5.59	0.99	75	-0.7	James Warden
Chris Stratton	117.3	6.60	4.60	1.07	70	-0.8	Brian Woods
Nik Turley	96.7	6.42	5.40	1.02	69	-0.8	Kyle Bloom
Jason Berken	129.0	4.74	3.49	0.98	71	-0.8	Ryan Jensen
Mitchell Boggs	62.7	4.88	4.45	0.86	73	-0.9	Mike Sullivan

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.