2015 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
With regard to their field players, San Francisco doesn’t currently feature so much a stars-and-scrubs sort of configuration as they do a Buster-Posey-surrounded-by-roughly-average-players one. Posey is projected by ZiPS not only to record the highest wOBA among Giants hitters by over 20 points but also to play slightly above-average defense at a position that receives the largest positive adjustment in the calculation of WAR.

Of some note, perhaps, is ZiPS’ seeming pessimism regarding Hunter Pence. After averaging five wins per season over the last two years, Pence is forecast to produce only half that figure in 2015. In fact, there’s probably less decline projected for ZiPS than one might think at first glance. Pence, for example, has recorded nearly 1.5 wins due to baserunning alone over the last two years after having posted mostly just average seasons by that measure before that. Even just applying regression here accounts for some of Pence’s seeming decline.

Pitchers
The San Francisco Giants won the 2014 World Series and they did it (ultimately) with a rotation featuring Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Tim Lincecum — plus some combination of Jake Peavy and Yusmeiro Petit. That’s different, however, than suggesting that Bumgarner, Hudson, et al., are necessarily a championship-level rotation. Giants starters accounted for the third-lowest collective WAR among the majors’ 30 clubs in 2014, nor does ZiPS’ 2015 forecast call for much improvement in this regard.

One pitcher of note for 2015 — in particular for how projections might or might not be able to account for his unusual career and lack of arm speed — is right-hander Yusmeiro Petit. He recorded the second-highest WAR among all Giants pitchers in 2014 but also produced an ERA about a run worse than his FIP (a disparity he’s exhibited through his career). ZiPS regards that gap between his ERA and FIP as a real thing, thus rendering Petit’s projection less encouraging than it might otherwise be based on fielding-independent numbers alone.

Bench/Prospects
Neglected in the discussion of San Francisco’s batting core above but also the recipient of an encouraging projection is catcher Andrew Susac. His competence will allow Bruce Bochy to deploy Posey at first base for purposes of rest and against left-handed pitchers. Should recent acquisition Casey McGehee implode entirely, both Matt Duffy and Adam Duvall would appear to be potentially useful alternatives at third base. Among pitchers, right-hander Clayton Blackburn appears to be the most qualified among the Giants’ minor-league pitchers to prevent runs in the majors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Giants Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Buster Posey R 28 C 597 72 159 31 2 19 87 2 1
Hunter Pence R 32 RF 674 94 164 30 6 19 85 11 4
Brandon Crawford L 28 SS 532 56 115 22 6 9 60 3 3
Brandon Belt L 27 1B 428 56 98 22 2 14 51 7 3
Andrew Susac R 25 C 393 46 80 15 1 7 37 1 1
Angel Pagan B 33 CF 472 66 121 23 5 5 39 16 7
Joe Panik L 24 2B 642 75 155 25 5 4 55 5 3
Casey McGehee R 32 3B 543 49 126 25 1 7 61 2 2
Matt Duffy R 24 SS 494 54 111 20 3 4 48 15 5
Gregor Blanco L 31 CF 443 53 96 16 5 4 37 16 6
Adam Duvall R 26 3B 508 59 106 21 3 15 58 3 1
Brandon Hicks R 29 2B 410 46 72 17 2 11 40 4 2
Tony Abreu B 30 2B 375 39 87 20 3 5 36 3 2
Carlos Triunfel R 25 SS 478 49 110 21 3 5 43 4 3
Hector Sanchez B 25 C 268 21 59 12 0 5 41 0 1
Ehire Adrianza B 25 2B 362 37 71 15 3 2 24 8 4
Joaquin Arias R 30 3B 280 26 68 11 2 2 26 3 1
Daniel Carbonell R 24 CF 166 17 39 7 2 2 15 6 2
Dan Uggla R 35 2B 387 44 66 11 1 10 42 1 1
Marco Scutaro R 39 2B 217 25 52 8 1 1 12 1 0
Blake Miller R 25 2B 395 38 82 16 3 3 34 4 1
Adalberto Santos R 27 2B 295 30 61 12 2 2 24 10 5
Justin Maxwell R 31 RF 302 35 58 12 2 7 30 5 3
Jarrett Parker L 26 RF 519 57 94 17 5 10 48 12 7
Gary Brown R 26 CF 618 71 131 25 5 7 50 25 15
Tyler Horan L 24 RF 452 50 94 20 4 12 47 9 5
Mac Williamson R 24 RF 289 35 61 12 0 5 27 5 1
Travis Ishikawa L 31 LF 326 31 67 14 1 6 35 0 0
Juan Ciriaco R 31 LF 186 19 40 6 1 3 17 7 1
Guillermo Quiroz R 33 C 244 23 49 11 1 3 21 0 0
Skyler Stromsmoe B 31 2B 304 32 56 10 2 1 18 6 6
Mark Minicozzi R 32 1B 418 48 86 17 0 7 37 1 1
Kelby Tomlinson R 25 2B 457 46 88 10 4 2 31 22 8
Juan Perez R 28 RF 442 50 99 23 3 6 38 11 6
Tyler Colvin L 29 LF 373 37 74 16 6 7 39 4 1
Darren Ford R 29 LF 325 34 67 9 2 3 23 21 10
Tyler LaTorre L 32 C 159 14 28 5 0 1 10 1 0
Brett Jackson L 26 RF 407 42 71 12 5 8 36 11 7
Brian Ragira R 23 1B 435 43 87 17 1 8 42 2 2
Chris Dominguez R 28 RF 508 49 107 20 2 10 50 9 5
Angel Villalona R 24 1B 479 45 90 20 3 9 45 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Buster Posey 597 9.2% 12.7% .173 .317 .301 .367 .474 .363
Hunter Pence 674 7.1% 18.5% .161 .303 .265 .320 .426 .327
Brandon Crawford 532 8.6% 20.9% .129 .294 .242 .309 .371 .292
Brandon Belt 428 10.3% 25.0% .180 .324 .259 .341 .439 .340
Andrew Susac 393 9.7% 29.3% .109 .320 .229 .311 .338 .294
Angel Pagan 472 6.6% 12.3% .110 .309 .278 .325 .388 .314
Joe Panik 642 6.7% 11.8% .080 .295 .264 .316 .344 .293
Casey McGehee 543 8.8% 18.8% .099 .309 .258 .322 .357 .301
Matt Duffy 494 7.3% 18.6% .085 .301 .248 .307 .333 .288
Gregor Blanco 443 9.9% 19.4% .098 .305 .246 .324 .344 .298
Adam Duvall 508 6.1% 23.6% .154 .272 .226 .282 .380 .294
Brandon Hicks 410 8.8% 34.9% .147 .285 .196 .275 .343 .276
Tony Abreu 375 3.2% 17.1% .117 .285 .246 .278 .363 .280
Carlos Triunfel 478 3.1% 18.4% .094 .292 .245 .278 .339 .270
Hector Sanchez 268 4.9% 23.9% .108 .293 .237 .276 .345 .272
Ehire Adrianza 362 7.5% 21.5% .083 .282 .220 .285 .303 .260
Joaquin Arias 280 2.9% 12.9% .079 .287 .257 .281 .336 .267
Daniel Carbonell 166 4.8% 22.3% .109 .316 .250 .295 .359 .295
Dan Uggla 387 12.7% 27.9% .130 .262 .200 .313 .330 .292
Marco Scutaro 217 7.8% 8.8% .067 .291 .268 .329 .335 .296
Blake Miller 395 5.1% 25.1% .085 .297 .225 .274 .310 .263
Adalberto Santos 295 8.8% 21.4% .083 .295 .231 .304 .314 .277
Justin Maxwell 302 7.6% 31.8% .136 .297 .212 .281 .348 .282
Jarrett Parker 519 8.7% 37.6% .123 .324 .203 .286 .326 .276
Gary Brown 618 4.9% 21.7% .098 .288 .231 .282 .329 .271
Tyler Horan 452 6.0% 29.0% .153 .295 .224 .277 .377 .288
Mac Williamson 289 6.6% 26.0% .103 .304 .233 .298 .336 .288
Travis Ishikawa 326 7.7% 26.1% .116 .299 .229 .298 .345 .285
Juan Ciriaco 186 5.4% 16.7% .099 .266 .234 .277 .333 .275
Guillermo Quiroz 244 4.9% 24.6% .097 .277 .216 .259 .313 .255
Skyler Stromsmoe 304 9.2% 20.4% .063 .268 .211 .296 .274 .256
Mark Minicozzi 418 8.6% 28.7% .102 .315 .229 .301 .331 .284
Kelby Tomlinson 457 7.0% 24.1% .058 .281 .212 .272 .270 .248
Juan Perez 442 3.8% 21.3% .113 .292 .238 .273 .351 .275
Tyler Colvin 373 5.9% 28.4% .141 .285 .214 .263 .355 .273
Darren Ford 325 6.2% 23.7% .074 .290 .224 .276 .298 .259
Tyler LaTorre 159 8.2% 28.3% .056 .276 .196 .266 .252 .239
Brett Jackson 407 9.1% 39.6% .126 .321 .195 .276 .321 .268
Brian Ragira 435 5.5% 30.3% .107 .296 .215 .264 .322 .261
Chris Dominguez 508 3.1% 30.1% .111 .298 .221 .250 .332 .258
Angel Villalona 479 4.0% 31.1% .118 .276 .200 .244 .318 .250

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Buster Posey 597 6.7 141 2 6.4 Spud Davis
Hunter Pence 674 5.1 113 -1 2.5 Gary Ward
Brandon Crawford 532 4.0 95 4 2.4 Stephen Drew
Brandon Belt 428 5.5 123 1 1.9 Roger Repoz
Andrew Susac 393 3.7 88 1 1.9 Maximiliano Ramirez
Angel Pagan 472 4.8 105 -3 1.8 Jim Piersall
Joe Panik 642 4.0 90 0 1.8 Martin Prado
Casey McGehee 543 4.1 96 -1 1.7 Brook Jacoby
Matt Duffy 494 3.8 85 0 1.6 Mike Sharperson
Gregor Blanco 443 4.1 93 -4 1.1 Greg Tubbs
Adam Duvall 508 3.8 89 -2 1.1 Corey Erickson
Brandon Hicks 410 3.2 77 3 0.8 Trace Coquillette
Tony Abreu 375 3.6 83 2 0.8 Fred Manrique
Carlos Triunfel 478 3.3 77 -1 0.7 Luis Garcia
Hector Sanchez 268 3.3 78 -1 0.6 Gilberto Reyes
Ehire Adrianza 362 3.0 70 4 0.5 Manuel Francois
Joaquin Arias 280 3.5 77 3 0.5 Francisco Matos
Daniel Carbonell 166 4.0 88 0 0.5 Ramon Cedeno
Dan Uggla 387 3.5 86 -5 0.4 Rico Petrocelli
Marco Scutaro 217 4.1 92 -3 0.4 Mark Loretta
Blake Miller 395 3.0 68 3 0.3 Juan Delgado
Adalberto Santos 295 3.4 79 -1 0.3 David Bacani
Justin Maxwell 302 3.3 80 3 0.3 Doug Frobel
Jarrett Parker 519 3.1 76 5 0.2 Brad Snyder
Gary Brown 618 3.2 76 -3 0.2 Mike Asche
Tyler Horan 452 3.6 86 0 0.2 Brandon Allen
Mac Williamson 289 3.6 83 -1 0.1 Wil Culmer
Travis Ishikawa 326 3.6 85 -2 -0.1 Orsino Hill
Juan Ciriaco 186 3.6 75 -1 -0.2 Manny Martinez
Guillermo Quiroz 244 2.8 64 -4 -0.2 George Mitterwald
Skyler Stromsmoe 304 2.5 66 -1 -0.2 Doug Baker
Mark Minicozzi 418 3.5 82 0 -0.4 Chris Saunders
Kelby Tomlinson 457 2.7 57 1 -0.4 Emmanuel Garcia
Juan Perez 442 3.4 79 -1 -0.4 Kerry Valrie
Tyler Colvin 373 3.3 77 -1 -0.4 Rob Lukachyk
Darren Ford 325 2.9 66 2 -0.5 Billy Hall
Tyler LaTorre 159 2.3 51 -6 -0.6 Chad Moeller
Brett Jackson 407 2.9 72 -1 -0.6 Chris Dickerson
Brian Ragira 435 2.9 68 -1 -1.3 Leo Daigle
Chris Dominguez 508 2.9 66 -5 -1.7 Travis Wilson
Angel Villalona 479 2.6 61 -2 -2.0 Jonas Hamlin

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Madison Bumgarner L 25 32 32 210.0 202 48 18 176 71 66
Jake Peavy R 34 26 26 163.7 130 42 15 151 65 61
Tim Hudson R 39 24 24 151.3 106 36 12 151 66 62
Matt Cain R 30 22 22 135.3 114 40 16 121 59 55
Clayton Blackburn R 22 22 22 116.3 96 31 10 111 49 46
Chris Heston R 27 24 23 138.3 99 48 11 133 62 58
Yusmeiro Petit R 30 30 18 125.7 112 29 14 120 56 52
Ryan Vogelsong R 37 24 24 139.0 103 46 14 138 67 63
Sergio Romo R 32 62 0 53.7 55 12 5 45 18 17
George Kontos R 30 59 0 74.7 69 22 6 66 28 26
Ty Blach L 24 23 23 131.3 83 43 11 135 64 60
Mike Kickham L 26 29 25 141.7 113 64 11 139 70 65
Kyle Crick R 22 21 20 82.0 92 62 7 69 40 37
Santiago Casilla R 34 56 0 51.7 42 18 4 45 19 18
Hunter Strickland R 26 49 0 46.7 45 11 4 42 17 16
Derek Law R 24 37 0 43.3 45 17 3 36 16 15
Tim Lincecum R 31 30 27 163.0 149 66 19 156 82 77
Jean Machi R 33 65 0 62.7 49 18 5 56 25 23
Jeremy Affeldt L 36 52 0 47.3 36 16 2 43 18 17
Ray Black R 25 39 0 34.0 43 17 2 25 13 12
Cody Hall R 27 49 0 53.0 52 19 4 47 21 20
Austin Fleet R 28 32 13 104.3 73 42 9 104 51 48
Jake Dunning R 26 48 2 70.0 50 26 5 67 31 29
Erik Cordier R 29 50 0 55.3 60 33 4 46 24 22
Joan Gregorio R 23 18 16 83.0 67 42 8 80 43 40
Javier Lopez L 37 60 0 33.0 26 13 2 30 14 13
Dontrelle Willis L 33 3 1 7.7 4 4 1 8 4 4
Brett Bochy R 27 44 0 57.3 51 24 6 52 26 24
Adalberto Mejia L 22 20 20 100.0 72 35 12 103 54 50
Sandy Rosario R 29 37 0 40.7 31 16 4 40 19 18
Shane Loux R 35 15 3 27.3 13 10 2 29 15 14
J.C. Gutierrez R 31 48 0 50.3 37 15 5 49 24 22
Steven Okert L 23 53 0 65.0 61 29 6 60 30 28
Phil McCormick L 26 56 0 61.0 51 31 4 57 29 27
Andrew Carignan R 28 27 0 34.3 32 26 3 31 18 17
Mike Broadway R 28 21   26.7 21 11 4 27 15 14
Dan Runzler L 30 42   45.0 41 33 4 41 25 23
Adam Reifer R 29 42   54.7 46 34 6 52 30 28
Chris Stratton R 24 23 22 117.3 86 60 14 122 68 64
Nik Turley L 25 20 19 96.7 69 58 11 97 58 54
Jason Berken R 31 24 22 129.0 68 50 14 144 75 70
Mitchell Boggs R 31 52   62.7 34 31 6 66 35 33

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Madison Bumgarner 210.0 854 23.7% 5.6% .273 2.83 2.95 81 85
Jake Peavy 163.7 684 19.0% 6.1% .277 3.35 3.53 96 101
Tim Hudson 151.3 641 16.5% 5.6% .288 3.69 3.43 106 98
Matt Cain 135.3 567 20.1% 7.1% .267 3.66 3.85 105 110
Clayton Blackburn 116.3 491 19.6% 6.3% .290 3.56 3.48 102 100
Chris Heston 138.3 596 16.6% 8.1% .283 3.77 3.84 108 110
Yusmeiro Petit 125.7 526 21.3% 5.5% .289 3.72 3.47 107 99
Ryan Vogelsong 139.0 601 17.1% 7.7% .288 4.08 3.97 117 114
Sergio Romo 53.7 218 25.2% 5.5% .280 2.85 2.95 82 85
George Kontos 74.7 312 22.1% 7.0% .282 3.13 3.14 90 90
Ty Blach 131.3 572 14.5% 7.5% .290 4.11 3.96 118 114
Mike Kickham 141.7 628 18.0% 10.2% .296 4.13 3.96 118 114
Kyle Crick 82.0 377 24.4% 16.4% .294 4.06 4.38 116 126
Santiago Casilla 51.7 218 19.3% 8.3% .270 3.14 3.43 90 98
Hunter Strickland 46.7 193 23.3% 5.7% .290 3.09 3.08 89 88
Derek Law 43.3 183 24.6% 9.3% .285 3.12 3.13 89 90
Tim Lincecum 163.0 711 21.0% 9.3% .290 4.25 4.00 122 115
Jean Machi 62.7 262 18.7% 6.9% .271 3.30 3.40 95 97
Jeremy Affeldt 47.3 201 17.9% 8.0% .285 3.23 3.17 93 91
Ray Black 34.0 144 29.9% 11.8% .288 3.18 2.97 91 85
Cody Hall 53.0 225 23.1% 8.4% .293 3.40 3.27 97 94
Austin Fleet 104.3 459 15.9% 9.2% .289 4.14 4.17 119 119
Jake Dunning 70.0 303 16.5% 8.6% .284 3.73 3.76 107 108
Erik Cordier 55.3 245 24.5% 13.5% .294 3.58 3.84 103 110
Joan Gregorio 83.0 371 18.1% 11.3% .289 4.34 4.36 124 125
Javier Lopez 33.0 142 18.3% 9.2% .280 3.55 3.18 102 91
Dontrelle Willis 7.7 35 11.4% 11.4% .268 4.70 5.27 135 151
Brett Bochy 57.3 248 20.6% 9.7% .281 3.77 3.95 108 113
Adalberto Mejia 100.0 438 16.4% 8.0% .291 4.50 4.41 129 127
Sandy Rosario 40.7 178 17.4% 9.0% .285 3.98 3.92 114 112
Shane Loux 27.3 121 10.8% 8.3% .285 4.61 4.27 132 122
J.C. Gutierrez 50.3 215 17.2% 7.0% .280 3.93 3.72 113 107
Steven Okert 65.0 284 21.5% 10.2% .293 3.88 3.82 111 109
Phil McCormick 61.0 271 18.8% 11.4% .293 3.98 3.91 114 112
Andrew Carignan 34.3 160 20.0% 16.3% .289 4.46 4.78 128 137
Mike Broadway 26.7 118 17.8% 9.3% .284 4.72 4.79 135 137
Dan Runzler 45.0 209 19.6% 15.8% .289 4.60 4.60 132 132
Adam Reifer 54.7 250 18.4% 13.6% .286 4.61 4.78 132 137
Chris Stratton 117.3 534 16.1% 11.2% .295 4.91 4.89 141 140
Nik Turley 96.7 445 15.5% 13.0% .285 5.03 5.07 144 145
Jason Berken 129.0 581 11.7% 8.6% .295 4.88 4.74 140 136
Mitchell Boggs 62.7 285 11.9% 10.9% .286 4.74 4.75 136 136

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner 210.0 8.66 2.06 0.77 122 4.3 Eric Milton
Jake Peavy 163.7 7.15 2.31 0.82 103 2.2 Kevin Tapani
Tim Hudson 151.3 6.31 2.14 0.71 94 1.4 Tim Belcher
Matt Cain 135.3 7.58 2.66 1.06 94 1.3 Scott Elarton
Clayton Blackburn 116.3 7.43 2.40 0.77 97 1.3 Elizardo Ramirez
Chris Heston 138.3 6.44 3.12 0.72 91 1.1 Ben Hendrickson
Yusmeiro Petit 125.7 8.02 2.08 1.00 93 1.0 Brian Sweeney
Ryan Vogelsong 139.0 6.67 2.98 0.91 85 0.6 Bob Welch
Sergio Romo 53.7 9.22 2.01 0.84 121 0.6 Blas Minor
George Kontos 74.7 8.31 2.65 0.72 110 0.5 Don Cooper
Ty Blach 131.3 5.69 2.95 0.75 84 0.5 Thomas Biko
Mike Kickham 141.7 7.18 4.06 0.70 83 0.5 Lance Caraccioli
Kyle Crick 82.0 10.10 6.80 0.77 85 0.4 Trevor Hutchinson
Santiago Casilla 51.7 7.31 3.13 0.70 110 0.4 Don Aase
Hunter Strickland 46.7 8.67 2.12 0.77 112 0.3 Mike Connolly
Derek Law 43.3 9.35 3.53 0.62 111 0.3 Troy Percival
Tim Lincecum 163.0 8.23 3.64 1.05 81 0.3 Cal Eldred
Jean Machi 62.7 7.03 2.58 0.72 104 0.3 Kirk Bullinger
Jeremy Affeldt 47.3 6.85 3.04 0.38 107 0.3 Vic Darensbourg
Ray Black 34.0 11.38 4.50 0.53 109 0.2 Armando Benitez
Cody Hall 53.0 8.83 3.23 0.68 102 0.2 Jose Veras
Austin Fleet 104.3 6.30 3.62 0.78 83 0.2 Daven Bond
Jake Dunning 70.0 6.43 3.34 0.64 92 0.1 Scott Munter
Erik Cordier 55.3 9.76 5.37 0.65 96 0.1 Calvin Jones
Joan Gregorio 83.0 7.27 4.55 0.87 79 0.1 Miguel Batista
Javier Lopez 33.0 7.09 3.55 0.55 97 0.0 Vic Darensbourg
Dontrelle Willis 7.7 4.68 4.68 1.17 73 0.0 Elmer Riddle
Brett Bochy 57.3 8.01 3.77 0.94 92 -0.1 Dan Kite
Adalberto Mejia 100.0 6.48 3.15 1.08 77 -0.1 Travis Blackley
Sandy Rosario 40.7 6.86 3.54 0.88 87 -0.2 Mike Gardiner
Shane Loux 27.3 4.29 3.30 0.66 75 -0.2 Bob Miller
J.C. Gutierrez 50.3 6.62 2.68 0.89 88 -0.2 Lee Gardner
Steven Okert 65.0 8.45 4.02 0.83 89 -0.2 Jesus Pena
Phil McCormick 61.0 7.52 4.57 0.59 87 -0.3 Tom Thurberg
Andrew Carignan 34.3 8.40 6.82 0.79 77 -0.4 Eric Cammack
Mike Broadway 26.7 7.08 3.71 1.35 73 -0.4 Gary Neibauer
Dan Runzler 45.0 8.20 6.60 0.80 75 -0.5 Mike Kinnunen
Adam Reifer 54.7 7.57 5.59 0.99 75 -0.7 James Warden
Chris Stratton 117.3 6.60 4.60 1.07 70 -0.8 Brian Woods
Nik Turley 96.7 6.42 5.40 1.02 69 -0.8 Kyle Bloom
Jason Berken 129.0 4.74 3.49 0.98 71 -0.8 Ryan Jensen
Mitchell Boggs 62.7 4.88 4.45 0.86 73 -0.9 Mike Sullivan

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles

Spud Davis, lol

Thomas Grantham
Guest
Thomas Grantham

Seriously, I could not believe that either. I find it hard to believe that the most similar player to Buster Posey was a guy from the 1930s who had a pretty forgettable career.

Dan Szymborski
Guest
Dan Szymborski

It’s not a total career comparison, it’s a recent-years comparison. Davis was a tremendous hitter for a stretch.

Avattoir
Guest
Avattoir

EB ranks Spud up there with Cochrane, Dickey, Piazza, Lombardi, Pudge Rodriguez, Joe Torre. All those guys hit a ton.

Maybe it’s the nickname that puts some off. What manly man man ever gets called Spud! Not something sober like Buster.

Brian
Guest

Is that much worse than Bumgarner’s #1 comp being Eric Milton? No disrespect to Mr. Milton but he retired with 89 wins a 4.99 ERA, and a 6.41 K/9.