2015 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
One doesn’t wake up every morning to find articles in the morning dailies arguing on behalf of Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and yet all indications are that, even were he to retire this second, he’d be a deserving inductee. Both his career WAR and also JAWS figures currently reside above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame entrant. ZiPS projects him to add four more wins to his resume in 2015.

Mike Petriello has already written this week about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their curiously shallow catcher depth chart. A properly motivated individual would probably have some luck composing a similar piece regarding the Rangers’ left-field spot. Jake Smolinski (468 PA, 0.1 WAR) is the favorite to earn the starting role there, while Michael Choice (559 PA, -0.4 WAR) is another candidate.

Pitchers
Since his arrival in the major leagues before the 2012 season, right-hander Yu Darvish is the only pitcher among all qualifiers to have recorded a strikeout rate above 30%. His projected strikeout rate for 2015 (29.8%) is just slightly below that threshold, but would have also still represented the third-best mark among qualifiers in 2014. Which, rephrased: Yu Darvish, even after having been adjusted for age and regression, still profiles as basically the league’s best strikeout pitcher (among starters).

Beyond Darvish, there’s less cause for optimism. ZiPS calls for Yovani Gallardo to record his highest WAR figure (2.8 WAR in 179.0 innings) since 2011. Left-hander Alex Claudio, meanwhile — who features a changeup that would surprise and astonish certain Warner Bros. animators — also receives a reasonably encouraging projection relative to his pedigree and arm speed (88.0 IP, 0.8 WAR). Otherwise, there’s little here to inspire enthusiasm.

Bench/Prospects
Among hitters, third-base prospect Joey Gallo (531 PA, 1.3 WAR) represents both the club’s top rookie-eligible player and also the best one (i.e. best player) not expected to receive regular plate appearances at the beginning of the season. His power is such that, even with a 42.2% projected strikeout rate, he’s still forecast to produce a basically league-average batting line. Among pitchers, Phil Klein, who recorded a nearly 30% strikeout rate in a limited sample last year, appears capable of providing competent innings for the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Adrian Beltre	R	36	3B	579	70	159	28	1	21	72	1	1
Leonys Martin	L	27	CF	516	63	128	19	6	9	45	28	11
Elvis Andrus	R	26	SS	690	79	167	30	4	3	51	32	11
Rougned Odor	L	21	2B	597	66	150	25	8	17	70	15	10
Shin-Soo Choo	L	32	LF	560	71	122	23	2	14	46	11	7
Joey Gallo	L	21	3B	531	74	99	17	2	31	78	8	3
Prince Fielder	L	31	1B	592	62	133	26	0	21	72	1	1
Robinson Chirinos	R	31	C	360	39	76	15	0	10	35	1	1
Jurickson Profar	B	22	2B	402	42	87	17	3	8	35	8	5
Hanser Alberto	R	22	SS	528	52	128	18	3	6	44	15	10
Chris Gimenez	R	32	C	314	33	66	13	1	4	25	0	2
Jared Hoying	L	26	CF	504	51	107	21	4	13	46	12	6
Jorge Alfaro	R	22	C	525	58	111	22	2	15	53	9	6
Tomas Telis	B	24	C	490	44	121	22	2	4	39	7	2
Ryan Rua	R	25	3B	555	57	121	24	2	13	53	8	3
Odubel Herrera	L	23	2B	564	54	138	17	4	2	37	15	9
Adam Rosales	R	32	3B	377	40	80	16	1	7	34	4	2
Carlos Corporan	B	31	C	232	24	47	8	0	6	24	0	0
Kyle Blanks	R	28	1B	245	36	53	10	1	10	26	1	0
Pat Cantwell	R	25	C	329	31	68	13	1	1	21	2	2
Jake Smolinski	R	26	LF	468	51	99	21	2	9	40	6	2
Tommy Field	R	28	SS	441	44	88	17	2	8	33	5	1
Lewis Brinson	R	21	CF	460	47	91	14	1	14	40	15	11
Mitch Moreland	L	29	1B	357	37	80	17	1	11	46	0	0
Antoan Richardson	B	31	CF	399	44	76	8	3	2	22	21	3
Kevin Kouzmanoff	R	33	3B	222	22	51	12	0	4	24	1	0
J.R. Towles	R	31	C	107	10	19	6	0	2	10	0	1
Chris Snyder	R	34	C	154	14	28	5	0	4	15	0	0
Kensuke Tanaka	L	34	2B	306	33	69	8	1	3	22	11	4
Delino DeShields	R	22	CF	539	64	107	15	3	8	43	37	17
Michael Choice	R	25	LF	559	60	118	21	1	15	61	2	2
Carlos Pena	L	37	1B	203	23	39	8	0	6	16	1	1
Brent Lillibridge	R	31	2B	321	36	62	10	1	9	28	12	4
Jim Adduci	L	30	LF	357	37	75	12	1	6	29	13	5
Carlos Peguero	L	28	LF	442	52	91	18	2	18	54	7	4
Nomar Mazara	L	20	RF	560	59	117	23	3	16	56	3	3
Jason Donald	R	30	2B	313	30	61	11	2	4	21	4	3
Ed Lucas	R	33	2B	405	42	83	12	0	5	27	2	1
J.T. Wise	R	29	1B	302	31	59	16	0	8	32	0	1
Guilder Rodriguez	B	31	SS	392	33	82	7	1	0	19	10	7
Nick Williams	L	21	LF	487	55	107	20	5	16	56	6	9
Brad Snyder	L	33	RF	407	43	80	16	2	13	42	5	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adrian Beltre	579	6.9%	12.3%	.175	.312	.300	.351	.475	.352
Leonys Martin	516	6.4%	19.4%	.124	.329	.273	.325	.397	.316
Elvis Andrus	690	7.4%	13.8%	.076	.313	.271	.328	.347	.301
Rougned Odor	597	4.2%	18.9%	.166	.310	.270	.309	.436	.322
Shin-Soo Choo	560	12.7%	23.0%	.146	.327	.260	.372	.406	.346
Joey Gallo	531	9.4%	42.2%	.241	.308	.209	.289	.450	.321
Prince Fielder	592	11.8%	17.2%	.175	.288	.262	.360	.437	.336
Robinson Chirinos	360	6.7%	20.8%	.138	.272	.234	.296	.372	.295
Jurickson Profar	402	8.0%	18.4%	.130	.282	.242	.309	.372	.299
Hanser Alberto	528	2.7%	11.0%	.084	.278	.257	.283	.341	.273
Chris Gimenez	314	9.2%	21.0%	.096	.291	.235	.307	.331	.283
Jared Hoying	504	5.2%	28.8%	.144	.299	.228	.273	.372	.284
Jorge Alfaro	525	4.2%	29.0%	.146	.298	.228	.280	.374	.289
Tomas Telis	490	2.9%	13.7%	.082	.295	.261	.286	.343	.276
Ryan Rua	555	6.1%	23.6%	.131	.293	.237	.292	.368	.295
Odubel Herrera	564	5.5%	19.3%	.059	.328	.264	.306	.323	.278
Adam Rosales	377	6.4%	22.0%	.113	.283	.232	.287	.345	.283
Carlos Corporan	232	6.0%	23.7%	.124	.272	.224	.286	.348	.281
Kyle Blanks	245	7.8%	28.6%	.193	.305	.243	.314	.436	.329
Pat Cantwell	329	4.0%	21.0%	.061	.293	.229	.291	.290	.263
Jake Smolinski	468	8.3%	20.9%	.124	.286	.236	.308	.360	.299
Tommy Field	441	6.8%	22.7%	.112	.271	.221	.281	.333	.275
Lewis Brinson	460	6.3%	39.1%	.137	.332	.214	.270	.351	.275
Mitch Moreland	357	7.3%	21.0%	.161	.286	.248	.304	.409	.309
Antoan Richardson	399	9.3%	22.1%	.058	.290	.222	.312	.280	.277
Kevin Kouzmanoff	222	3.6%	17.1%	.115	.278	.244	.279	.359	.281
J.R. Towles	107	7.5%	20.6%	.128	.239	.202	.283	.330	.272
Chris Snyder	154	9.7%	29.2%	.124	.270	.204	.286	.328	.274
Kensuke Tanaka	306	7.8%	12.1%	.069	.276	.250	.309	.319	.285
Delino DeShields	539	8.0%	24.7%	.095	.297	.228	.302	.323	.279
Michael Choice	559	8.1%	24.5%	.136	.292	.237	.308	.373	.303
Carlos Pena	203	9.4%	24.1%	.143	.260	.214	.296	.357	.287
Brent Lillibridge	321	5.3%	30.5%	.132	.277	.209	.260	.341	.268
Jim Adduci	357	7.3%	23.8%	.099	.292	.231	.288	.330	.276
Carlos Peguero	442	6.6%	35.7%	.186	.312	.224	.278	.410	.300
Nomar Mazara	560	7.5%	30.4%	.151	.308	.229	.291	.380	.297
Jason Donald	313	5.4%	27.5%	.094	.285	.212	.264	.306	.254
Ed Lucas	405	5.4%	24.7%	.072	.287	.221	.269	.293	.251
J.T. Wise	302	7.6%	34.4%	.145	.309	.214	.278	.359	.282
Guilder Rodriguez	392	6.9%	15.6%	.025	.275	.229	.282	.254	.241
Nick Williams	487	3.1%	34.9%	.168	.329	.232	.269	.400	.289
Brad Snyder	407	6.1%	35.6%	.156	.300	.212	.260	.368	.274

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre	579	6.4	123	5	4.2	Joe Torre
Leonys Martin	516	4.9	96	9	2.7	Dave Martinez
Elvis Andrus	690	4.4	84	1	2.3	Jason Bartlett
Rougned Odor	597	4.9	100	-3	1.8	Robinson Cano
Shin-Soo Choo	560	5.4	112	-4	1.8	Wally Moon
Joey Gallo	531	4.5	97	-5	1.3	Shane Andrews
Prince Fielder	592	5.7	116	-4	1.2	Alvin Davis
Robinson Chirinos	360	3.9	81	0	1.1	Nelson Santovenia
Jurickson Profar	402	4.0	85	1	0.9	Jeff Patzke
Hanser Alberto	528	3.4	69	3	0.5	Placido Polanco
Chris Gimenez	314	3.4	74	-1	0.5	J.D. Closser
Jared Hoying	504	3.6	74	3	0.5	Justin Bowles
Jorge Alfaro	525	3.6	76	-8	0.5	Mike Diaz
Tomas Telis	490	3.7	71	-3	0.5	Wilkin Castillo
Ryan Rua	555	3.9	79	-2	0.4	Ty Wigginton
Odubel Herrera	564	3.6	72	3	0.4	Manuel Lee
Adam Rosales	377	3.5	72	3	0.3	Jason Wood
Carlos Corporan	232	3.5	72	-1	0.3	Kelly Stinnett
Kyle Blanks	245	4.9	102	-1	0.3	Josh Phelps
Pat Cantwell	329	2.9	59	1	0.3	Mike Knapp
Jake Smolinski	468	4.0	82	2	0.1	Peter Zoccolillo
Tommy Field	441	3.3	67	-1	0.1	Leo Durocher
Lewis Brinson	460	3.1	68	3	0.1	Willie Magallanes
Mitch Moreland	357	4.5	92	0	0.0	Daryle Ward
Antoan Richardson	399	3.5	63	-2	-0.1	Scott Pose
Kevin Kouzmanoff	222	3.6	72	-1	-0.1	Aurelio Rodriguez
J.R. Towles	107	2.9	67	-2	-0.1	Henry Blanco
Chris Snyder	154	3.2	67	-3	-0.1	Steve Yeager
Kensuke Tanaka	306	3.7	72	-3	-0.1	Don Blasingame
Delino DeShields	539	3.5	71	-6	-0.4	Maiko Loyola
Michael Choice	559	4.0	85	-4	-0.4	Alejandro Freire
Carlos Pena	203	3.6	77	-1	-0.5	Brian Jordan
Brent Lillibridge	321	3.2	62	-3	-0.6	Dave Matranga
Jim Adduci	357	3.4	68	0	-0.6	Adam Shabala
Carlos Peguero	442	4.0	85	-6	-0.7	Joe Hicks
Nomar Mazara	560	3.8	81	-5	-0.8	Paul Sorrento
Jason Donald	313	2.7	55	-2	-0.9	Frank Kremblas
Ed Lucas	405	2.7	53	0	-0.9	Kevin Baez
J.T. Wise	302	3.4	72	-2	-0.9	Kevin Buckley
Guilder Rodriguez	392	2.4	48	-1	-1.0	Al Newman
Nick Williams	487	3.5	79	-4	-1.0	Thomas Mitchell
Brad Snyder	407	3.1	69	-3	-1.3	Dann Howitt

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yu Darvish	R	28	26	26	173.7	217	65	17	141	63	59
Yovani Gallardo	R	29	30	30	179.0	147	59	21	178	87	81
Derek Holland	L	28	23	22	131.3	114	38	16	128	62	58
Martin Perez	L	24	16	16	99.0	65	32	10	103	50	47
Nick Tepesch	R	26	26	25	138.3	82	42	17	150	76	71
Alex Claudio	L	23	44	6	88.0	67	24	9	91	43	40
Matt Harrison	L	29	13	13	71.7	47	26	8	75	37	35
Ross Detwiler	L	29	32	10	85.3	55	26	9	92	44	41
Anthony Ranaudo	R	25	24	24	124.7	82	51	18	132	72	67
Phil Klein	R	26	49	0	63.7	69	31	7	54	28	26
Jake Thompson	R	21	23	22	111.0	86	50	14	116	64	60
Nick Martinez	R	24	28	24	136.3	82	56	17	148	80	75
Chi-Chi Gonzalez	R	23	22	22	101.3	62	36	12	111	59	55
David Martinez	R	27	27	18	113.7	65	36	14	126	66	62
Shawn Tolleson	R	27	53	0	57.0	56	22	8	52	27	25
Lisalverto Bonilla	R	25	42	4	75.7	76	34	10	71	40	37
Alfredo Figaro	R	30	35	6	74.3	52	23	10	80	41	38
Colby Lewis	R	35	18	18	101.0	77	29	16	114	61	57
Neftali Feliz	R	27	38	0	36.7	33	15	4	34	17	16
Luke Jackson	R	23	26	24	116.0	96	58	17	121	71	66
Andrew Faulkner	L	22	25	21	114.0	75	51	16	125	70	65
Miles Mikolas	R	26	41	8	81.3	53	24	11	89	46	43
Aaron Poreda	L	28	27	1	32.3	30	13	3	31	16	15
Tanner Scheppers	R	28	50	0	47.3	38	15	6	48	24	22
Keone Kela	R	22	40	0	47.0	45	27	5	44	24	22
Zack Segovia	R	32	16	15	87.0	53	26	13	99	54	50
Kyuji Fujikawa	R	34	26	0	24.0	26	9	3	23	12	11
Ross Ohlendorf	R	32	17	12	70.0	50	30	10	76	43	40
Edwar Cabrera	L	27	26	22	125.7	85	47	21	139	78	73
Juan Carlos Oviedo	R	33	19	0	18.7	16	8	2	18	10	9
Wilmer Font	R	25	45	0	41.7	40	26	5	39	22	21
Spencer Patton	R	27	43	3	68.0	66	30	11	66	39	36
Ross Wolf	R	32	29	8	68.3	36	25	9	78	42	39
Roman Mendez	R	24	43	0	51.0	38	23	6	51	28	26
Alec Asher	R	23	27	26	134.7	90	39	25	152	87	81
Michael Kirkman	L	28	42	5	61.0	54	38	8	62	37	35
Anthony Bass	R	27	35	9	80.3	52	27	13	91	51	48
Pedro Figueroa	L	29	32	0	36.0	23	21	6	40	25	23
Jonathan Edwards	R	27	37	0	49.7	45	41	6	49	32	30
Kyle Lotzkar	R	25	30	9	68.0	52	51	10	73	48	45
Francisco Mendoza	R	27	41	0	53.7	39	35	8	58	36	34
Mitch Atkins	R	29	23	19	109.3	72	42	22	129	77	72
Ryan Feierabend	L	29	24	16	104.0	52	33	19	127	74	69
Scott Richmond	R	35	20	14	78.0	40	33	15	95	59	55
Jerad Eickhoff	R	24	26	25	131.7	83	51	27	153	94	88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yu Darvish	173.7	727	29.8%	8.9%	.294	3.06	3.20	73	77
Yovani Gallardo	179.0	774	19.0%	7.6%	.289	4.07	4.11	98	99
Derek Holland	131.3	560	20.4%	6.8%	.287	3.97	3.98	95	96
Martin Perez	99.0	432	15.0%	7.4%	.289	4.27	4.25	103	102
Nick Tepesch	138.3	607	13.5%	6.9%	.290	4.62	4.67	111	112
Alex Claudio	88.0	379	17.7%	6.3%	.299	4.09	4.02	98	96
Matt Harrison	71.7	316	14.9%	8.2%	.286	4.40	4.45	106	107
Ross Detwiler	85.3	374	14.7%	7.0%	.298	4.32	4.32	104	104
Anthony Ranaudo	124.7	557	14.7%	9.2%	.284	4.84	5.13	116	123
Phil Klein	63.7	276	25.0%	11.2%	.286	3.68	3.94	88	95
Jake Thompson	111.0	499	17.2%	10.0%	.299	4.86	4.85	117	116
Nick Martinez	136.3	613	13.4%	9.1%	.290	4.95	4.98	119	120
Chi-Chi Gonzalez	101.3	451	13.8%	8.0%	.296	4.88	4.78	117	115
David Martinez	113.7	503	12.9%	7.2%	.293	4.91	4.76	118	114
Shawn Tolleson	57.0	245	22.9%	9.0%	.278	3.95	4.03	95	97
Lisalverto Bonilla	75.7	332	22.9%	10.2%	.293	4.40	4.36	106	105
Alfredo Figaro	74.3	326	16.0%	7.1%	.293	4.60	4.50	110	108
Colby Lewis	101.0	446	17.3%	6.5%	.307	5.08	4.71	122	113
Neftali Feliz	36.7	159	20.7%	9.4%	.283	3.93	4.15	94	100
Luke Jackson	116.0	527	18.2%	11.0%	.298	5.12	5.15	123	124
Andrew Faulkner	114.0	518	14.5%	9.8%	.296	5.13	5.28	123	127
Miles Mikolas	81.3	357	14.9%	6.7%	.296	4.76	4.71	114	113
Aaron Poreda	32.3	141	21.3%	9.2%	.301	4.18	3.68	100	88
Tanner Scheppers	47.3	205	18.5%	7.3%	.296	4.18	4.34	100	104
Keone Kela	47.0	212	21.2%	12.7%	.295	4.21	4.60	101	110
Zack Segovia	87.0	386	13.7%	6.7%	.298	5.17	5.01	124	120
Kyuji Fujikawa	24.0	104	25.0%	8.7%	.313	4.12	3.93	99	94
Ross Ohlendorf	70.0	316	15.8%	9.5%	.296	5.14	5.02	123	121
Edwar Cabrera	125.7	563	15.1%	8.3%	.293	5.23	5.33	126	128
Juan Carlos Oviedo	18.7	82	19.5%	9.7%	.290	4.34	4.34	104	104
Wilmer Font	41.7	190	21.0%	13.7%	.293	4.54	4.87	109	117
Spencer Patton	68.0	300	22.0%	10.0%	.291	4.76	4.79	114	115
Ross Wolf	68.3	308	11.7%	8.1%	.295	5.14	5.15	123	124
Roman Mendez	51.0	227	16.7%	10.1%	.287	4.59	4.67	110	112
Alec Asher	134.7	595	15.1%	6.6%	.293	5.41	5.30	130	127
Michael Kirkman	61.0	283	19.1%	13.4%	.302	5.16	5.12	124	123
Anthony Bass	80.3	359	14.5%	7.5%	.296	5.38	5.04	129	121
Pedro Figueroa	36.0	169	13.6%	12.4%	.293	5.75	6.03	138	145
Jonathan Edwards	49.7	239	18.8%	17.1%	.298	5.44	5.57	131	134
Kyle Lotzkar	68.0	328	15.9%	15.5%	.299	5.96	6.03	143	145
Francisco Mendoza	53.7	254	15.3%	13.8%	.296	5.70	5.77	137	139
Mitch Atkins	109.3	499	14.4%	8.4%	.301	5.93	5.86	142	141
Ryan Feierabend	104.0	472	11.0%	7.0%	.298	5.97	5.66	143	136
Scott Richmond	78.0	362	11.0%	9.1%	.297	6.35	6.16	152	148
Jerad Eickhoff	131.7	599	13.9%	8.5%	.293	6.02	5.95	145	143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish	173.7	11.24	3.37	0.88	135	5.0	Kerry Wood
Yovani Gallardo	179.0	7.39	2.97	1.06	101	2.8	Scott Kamieniecki
Derek Holland	131.3	7.81	2.60	1.10	104	2.2	Larry McWilliams
Martin Perez	99.0	5.91	2.91	0.91	97	1.3	Sean Burnett
Nick Tepesch	138.3	5.34	2.73	1.11	89	1.2	Mike Thompson
Alex Claudio	88.0	6.85	2.45	0.92	101	0.8	Steve Sharts
Matt Harrison	71.7	5.90	3.26	1.00	94	0.8	Jim Abbott
Ross Detwiler	85.3	5.80	2.74	0.95	95	0.8	Ricky Horton
Anthony Ranaudo	124.7	5.92	3.68	1.30	85	0.7	Mike Fyhrie
Phil Klein	63.7	9.75	4.38	0.99	112	0.6	Mark Acre
Jake Thompson	111.0	6.97	4.05	1.14	85	0.6	Mark Calvert
Nick Martinez	136.3	5.41	3.70	1.12	83	0.5	Frank Castillo
Chi-Chi Gonzalez	101.3	5.51	3.20	1.07	84	0.5	Preston Larrison
David Martinez	113.7	5.15	2.85	1.11	84	0.4	Pat Ahearne
Shawn Tolleson	57.0	8.84	3.47	1.26	105	0.3	Jeff Jones
Lisalverto Bonilla	75.7	9.04	4.04	1.19	94	0.3	Jesus Colome
Alfredo Figaro	74.3	6.30	2.79	1.21	90	0.3	Bryan Corey
Colby Lewis	101.0	6.86	2.58	1.43	81	0.3	Rick Helling
Neftali Feliz	36.7	8.09	3.68	0.98	105	0.2	Franklyn German
Luke Jackson	116.0	7.45	4.50	1.32	81	0.2	T.J. Tucker
Andrew Faulkner	114.0	5.92	4.03	1.26	80	0.2	John Habyan
Miles Mikolas	81.3	5.87	2.66	1.22	87	0.2	Gellert Grindelwald
Aaron Poreda	32.3	8.36	3.62	0.84	99	0.2	Dan Ricabal
Tanner Scheppers	47.3	7.23	2.85	1.14	99	0.1	Bob Wells
Keone Kela	47.0	8.62	5.17	0.96	98	0.1	Brad Voyles
Zack Segovia	87.0	5.48	2.69	1.34	80	0.1	Brian Moehler
Kyuji Fujikawa	24.0	9.75	3.38	1.13	100	0.1	Hector Carrasco
Ross Ohlendorf	70.0	6.43	3.86	1.29	80	0.1	Evan Thomas
Edwar Cabrera	125.7	6.09	3.37	1.50	79	0.0	Mike Prochaska
Juan Carlos Oviedo	18.7	7.70	3.85	0.96	95	0.0	Kirk Bullinger
Wilmer Font	41.7	8.63	5.61	1.08	91	-0.1	Josh Banks
Spencer Patton	68.0	8.74	3.97	1.46	87	-0.1	Jim Mann
Ross Wolf	68.3	4.74	3.29	1.19	80	-0.1	Karl Drews
Roman Mendez	51.0	6.71	4.06	1.06	90	-0.1	Scott Munter
Alec Asher	134.7	6.01	2.61	1.67	76	-0.3	Charlie Scott
Michael Kirkman	61.0	7.97	5.61	1.18	80	-0.3	Mike Bumatay
Anthony Bass	80.3	5.83	3.03	1.46	77	-0.4	Eric Boudreaux
Pedro Figueroa	36.0	5.75	5.25	1.50	72	-0.6	Dick Selma
Jonathan Edwards	49.7	8.15	7.42	1.09	76	-0.7	Bart Evans
Kyle Lotzkar	68.0	6.88	6.75	1.32	69	-0.8	Steve Hoeme
Francisco Mendoza	53.7	6.54	5.87	1.34	72	-0.9	Brad Tweedlie
Mitch Atkins	109.3	5.93	3.46	1.81	70	-1.0	Mike Heathcott
Ryan Feierabend	104.0	4.50	2.86	1.64	69	-1.0	Benj Sampson
Scott Richmond	78.0	4.62	3.81	1.73	65	-1.1	Alan Benes
Jerad Eickhoff	131.7	5.67	3.49	1.85	69	-1.3	Ty Hartshorn

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.