2015 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
One doesn’t wake up every morning to find articles in the morning dailies arguing on behalf of Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and yet all indications are that, even were he to retire this second, he’d be a deserving inductee. Both his career WAR and also JAWS figures currently reside above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame entrant. ZiPS projects him to add four more wins to his resume in 2015.

Mike Petriello has already written this week about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their curiously shallow catcher depth chart. A properly motivated individual would probably have some luck composing a similar piece regarding the Rangers’ left-field spot. Jake Smolinski (468 PA, 0.1 WAR) is the favorite to earn the starting role there, while Michael Choice (559 PA, -0.4 WAR) is another candidate.

Pitchers
Since his arrival in the major leagues before the 2012 season, right-hander Yu Darvish is the only pitcher among all qualifiers to have recorded a strikeout rate above 30%. His projected strikeout rate for 2015 (29.8%) is just slightly below that threshold, but would have also still represented the third-best mark among qualifiers in 2014. Which, rephrased: Yu Darvish, even after having been adjusted for age and regression, still profiles as basically the league’s best strikeout pitcher (among starters).

Beyond Darvish, there’s less cause for optimism. ZiPS calls for Yovani Gallardo to record his highest WAR figure (2.8 WAR in 179.0 innings) since 2011. Left-hander Alex Claudio, meanwhile — who features a changeup that would surprise and astonish certain Warner Bros. animators — also receives a reasonably encouraging projection relative to his pedigree and arm speed (88.0 IP, 0.8 WAR). Otherwise, there’s little here to inspire enthusiasm.

Bench/Prospects
Among hitters, third-base prospect Joey Gallo (531 PA, 1.3 WAR) represents both the club’s top rookie-eligible player and also the best one (i.e. best player) not expected to receive regular plate appearances at the beginning of the season. His power is such that, even with a 42.2% projected strikeout rate, he’s still forecast to produce a basically league-average batting line. Among pitchers, Phil Klein, who recorded a nearly 30% strikeout rate in a limited sample last year, appears capable of providing competent innings for the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.