2015 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
One doesn’t wake up every morning to find articles in the morning dailies arguing on behalf of Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and yet all indications are that, even were he to retire this second, he’d be a deserving inductee. Both his career WAR and also JAWS figures currently reside above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame entrant. ZiPS projects him to add four more wins to his resume in 2015.

Mike Petriello has already written this week about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their curiously shallow catcher depth chart. A properly motivated individual would probably have some luck composing a similar piece regarding the Rangers’ left-field spot. Jake Smolinski (468 PA, 0.1 WAR) is the favorite to earn the starting role there, while Michael Choice (559 PA, -0.4 WAR) is another candidate.

Pitchers
Since his arrival in the major leagues before the 2012 season, right-hander Yu Darvish is the only pitcher among all qualifiers to have recorded a strikeout rate above 30%. His projected strikeout rate for 2015 (29.8%) is just slightly below that threshold, but would have also still represented the third-best mark among qualifiers in 2014. Which, rephrased: Yu Darvish, even after having been adjusted for age and regression, still profiles as basically the league’s best strikeout pitcher (among starters).

Beyond Darvish, there’s less cause for optimism. ZiPS calls for Yovani Gallardo to record his highest WAR figure (2.8 WAR in 179.0 innings) since 2011. Left-hander Alex Claudio, meanwhile — who features a changeup that would surprise and astonish certain Warner Bros. animators — also receives a reasonably encouraging projection relative to his pedigree and arm speed (88.0 IP, 0.8 WAR). Otherwise, there’s little here to inspire enthusiasm.

Bench/Prospects
Among hitters, third-base prospect Joey Gallo (531 PA, 1.3 WAR) represents both the club’s top rookie-eligible player and also the best one (i.e. best player) not expected to receive regular plate appearances at the beginning of the season. His power is such that, even with a 42.2% projected strikeout rate, he’s still forecast to produce a basically league-average batting line. Among pitchers, Phil Klein, who recorded a nearly 30% strikeout rate in a limited sample last year, appears capable of providing competent innings for the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Rangers Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Adrian Beltre R 36 3B 579 70 159 28 1 21 72 1 1
Leonys Martin L 27 CF 516 63 128 19 6 9 45 28 11
Elvis Andrus R 26 SS 690 79 167 30 4 3 51 32 11
Rougned Odor L 21 2B 597 66 150 25 8 17 70 15 10
Shin-Soo Choo L 32 LF 560 71 122 23 2 14 46 11 7
Joey Gallo L 21 3B 531 74 99 17 2 31 78 8 3
Prince Fielder L 31 1B 592 62 133 26 0 21 72 1 1
Robinson Chirinos R 31 C 360 39 76 15 0 10 35 1 1
Jurickson Profar B 22 2B 402 42 87 17 3 8 35 8 5
Hanser Alberto R 22 SS 528 52 128 18 3 6 44 15 10
Chris Gimenez R 32 C 314 33 66 13 1 4 25 0 2
Jared Hoying L 26 CF 504 51 107 21 4 13 46 12 6
Jorge Alfaro R 22 C 525 58 111 22 2 15 53 9 6
Tomas Telis B 24 C 490 44 121 22 2 4 39 7 2
Ryan Rua R 25 3B 555 57 121 24 2 13 53 8 3
Odubel Herrera L 23 2B 564 54 138 17 4 2 37 15 9
Adam Rosales R 32 3B 377 40 80 16 1 7 34 4 2
Carlos Corporan B 31 C 232 24 47 8 0 6 24 0 0
Kyle Blanks R 28 1B 245 36 53 10 1 10 26 1 0
Pat Cantwell R 25 C 329 31 68 13 1 1 21 2 2
Jake Smolinski R 26 LF 468 51 99 21 2 9 40 6 2
Tommy Field R 28 SS 441 44 88 17 2 8 33 5 1
Lewis Brinson R 21 CF 460 47 91 14 1 14 40 15 11
Mitch Moreland L 29 1B 357 37 80 17 1 11 46 0 0
Antoan Richardson B 31 CF 399 44 76 8 3 2 22 21 3
Kevin Kouzmanoff R 33 3B 222 22 51 12 0 4 24 1 0
J.R. Towles R 31 C 107 10 19 6 0 2 10 0 1
Chris Snyder R 34 C 154 14 28 5 0 4 15 0 0
Kensuke Tanaka L 34 2B 306 33 69 8 1 3 22 11 4
Delino DeShields R 22 CF 539 64 107 15 3 8 43 37 17
Michael Choice R 25 LF 559 60 118 21 1 15 61 2 2
Carlos Pena L 37 1B 203 23 39 8 0 6 16 1 1
Brent Lillibridge R 31 2B 321 36 62 10 1 9 28 12 4
Jim Adduci L 30 LF 357 37 75 12 1 6 29 13 5
Carlos Peguero L 28 LF 442 52 91 18 2 18 54 7 4
Nomar Mazara L 20 RF 560 59 117 23 3 16 56 3 3
Jason Donald R 30 2B 313 30 61 11 2 4 21 4 3
Ed Lucas R 33 2B 405 42 83 12 0 5 27 2 1
J.T. Wise R 29 1B 302 31 59 16 0 8 32 0 1
Guilder Rodriguez B 31 SS 392 33 82 7 1 0 19 10 7
Nick Williams L 21 LF 487 55 107 20 5 16 56 6 9
Brad Snyder L 33 RF 407 43 80 16 2 13 42 5 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Adrian Beltre 579 6.9% 12.3% .175 .312 .300 .351 .475 .352
Leonys Martin 516 6.4% 19.4% .124 .329 .273 .325 .397 .316
Elvis Andrus 690 7.4% 13.8% .076 .313 .271 .328 .347 .301
Rougned Odor 597 4.2% 18.9% .166 .310 .270 .309 .436 .322
Shin-Soo Choo 560 12.7% 23.0% .146 .327 .260 .372 .406 .346
Joey Gallo 531 9.4% 42.2% .241 .308 .209 .289 .450 .321
Prince Fielder 592 11.8% 17.2% .175 .288 .262 .360 .437 .336
Robinson Chirinos 360 6.7% 20.8% .138 .272 .234 .296 .372 .295
Jurickson Profar 402 8.0% 18.4% .130 .282 .242 .309 .372 .299
Hanser Alberto 528 2.7% 11.0% .084 .278 .257 .283 .341 .273
Chris Gimenez 314 9.2% 21.0% .096 .291 .235 .307 .331 .283
Jared Hoying 504 5.2% 28.8% .144 .299 .228 .273 .372 .284
Jorge Alfaro 525 4.2% 29.0% .146 .298 .228 .280 .374 .289
Tomas Telis 490 2.9% 13.7% .082 .295 .261 .286 .343 .276
Ryan Rua 555 6.1% 23.6% .131 .293 .237 .292 .368 .295
Odubel Herrera 564 5.5% 19.3% .059 .328 .264 .306 .323 .278
Adam Rosales 377 6.4% 22.0% .113 .283 .232 .287 .345 .283
Carlos Corporan 232 6.0% 23.7% .124 .272 .224 .286 .348 .281
Kyle Blanks 245 7.8% 28.6% .193 .305 .243 .314 .436 .329
Pat Cantwell 329 4.0% 21.0% .061 .293 .229 .291 .290 .263
Jake Smolinski 468 8.3% 20.9% .124 .286 .236 .308 .360 .299
Tommy Field 441 6.8% 22.7% .112 .271 .221 .281 .333 .275
Lewis Brinson 460 6.3% 39.1% .137 .332 .214 .270 .351 .275
Mitch Moreland 357 7.3% 21.0% .161 .286 .248 .304 .409 .309
Antoan Richardson 399 9.3% 22.1% .058 .290 .222 .312 .280 .277
Kevin Kouzmanoff 222 3.6% 17.1% .115 .278 .244 .279 .359 .281
J.R. Towles 107 7.5% 20.6% .128 .239 .202 .283 .330 .272
Chris Snyder 154 9.7% 29.2% .124 .270 .204 .286 .328 .274
Kensuke Tanaka 306 7.8% 12.1% .069 .276 .250 .309 .319 .285
Delino DeShields 539 8.0% 24.7% .095 .297 .228 .302 .323 .279
Michael Choice 559 8.1% 24.5% .136 .292 .237 .308 .373 .303
Carlos Pena 203 9.4% 24.1% .143 .260 .214 .296 .357 .287
Brent Lillibridge 321 5.3% 30.5% .132 .277 .209 .260 .341 .268
Jim Adduci 357 7.3% 23.8% .099 .292 .231 .288 .330 .276
Carlos Peguero 442 6.6% 35.7% .186 .312 .224 .278 .410 .300
Nomar Mazara 560 7.5% 30.4% .151 .308 .229 .291 .380 .297
Jason Donald 313 5.4% 27.5% .094 .285 .212 .264 .306 .254
Ed Lucas 405 5.4% 24.7% .072 .287 .221 .269 .293 .251
J.T. Wise 302 7.6% 34.4% .145 .309 .214 .278 .359 .282
Guilder Rodriguez 392 6.9% 15.6% .025 .275 .229 .282 .254 .241
Nick Williams 487 3.1% 34.9% .168 .329 .232 .269 .400 .289
Brad Snyder 407 6.1% 35.6% .156 .300 .212 .260 .368 .274

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre 579 6.4 123 5 4.2 Joe Torre
Leonys Martin 516 4.9 96 9 2.7 Dave Martinez
Elvis Andrus 690 4.4 84 1 2.3 Jason Bartlett
Rougned Odor 597 4.9 100 -3 1.8 Robinson Cano
Shin-Soo Choo 560 5.4 112 -4 1.8 Wally Moon
Joey Gallo 531 4.5 97 -5 1.3 Shane Andrews
Prince Fielder 592 5.7 116 -4 1.2 Alvin Davis
Robinson Chirinos 360 3.9 81 0 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Jurickson Profar 402 4.0 85 1 0.9 Jeff Patzke
Hanser Alberto 528 3.4 69 3 0.5 Placido Polanco
Chris Gimenez 314 3.4 74 -1 0.5 J.D. Closser
Jared Hoying 504 3.6 74 3 0.5 Justin Bowles
Jorge Alfaro 525 3.6 76 -8 0.5 Mike Diaz
Tomas Telis 490 3.7 71 -3 0.5 Wilkin Castillo
Ryan Rua 555 3.9 79 -2 0.4 Ty Wigginton
Odubel Herrera 564 3.6 72 3 0.4 Manuel Lee
Adam Rosales 377 3.5 72 3 0.3 Jason Wood
Carlos Corporan 232 3.5 72 -1 0.3 Kelly Stinnett
Kyle Blanks 245 4.9 102 -1 0.3 Josh Phelps
Pat Cantwell 329 2.9 59 1 0.3 Mike Knapp
Jake Smolinski 468 4.0 82 2 0.1 Peter Zoccolillo
Tommy Field 441 3.3 67 -1 0.1 Leo Durocher
Lewis Brinson 460 3.1 68 3 0.1 Willie Magallanes
Mitch Moreland 357 4.5 92 0 0.0 Daryle Ward
Antoan Richardson 399 3.5 63 -2 -0.1 Scott Pose
Kevin Kouzmanoff 222 3.6 72 -1 -0.1 Aurelio Rodriguez
J.R. Towles 107 2.9 67 -2 -0.1 Henry Blanco
Chris Snyder 154 3.2 67 -3 -0.1 Steve Yeager
Kensuke Tanaka 306 3.7 72 -3 -0.1 Don Blasingame
Delino DeShields 539 3.5 71 -6 -0.4 Maiko Loyola
Michael Choice 559 4.0 85 -4 -0.4 Alejandro Freire
Carlos Pena 203 3.6 77 -1 -0.5 Brian Jordan
Brent Lillibridge 321 3.2 62 -3 -0.6 Dave Matranga
Jim Adduci 357 3.4 68 0 -0.6 Adam Shabala
Carlos Peguero 442 4.0 85 -6 -0.7 Joe Hicks
Nomar Mazara 560 3.8 81 -5 -0.8 Paul Sorrento
Jason Donald 313 2.7 55 -2 -0.9 Frank Kremblas
Ed Lucas 405 2.7 53 0 -0.9 Kevin Baez
J.T. Wise 302 3.4 72 -2 -0.9 Kevin Buckley
Guilder Rodriguez 392 2.4 48 -1 -1.0 Al Newman
Nick Williams 487 3.5 79 -4 -1.0 Thomas Mitchell
Brad Snyder 407 3.1 69 -3 -1.3 Dann Howitt

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Yu Darvish R 28 26 26 173.7 217 65 17 141 63 59
Yovani Gallardo R 29 30 30 179.0 147 59 21 178 87 81
Derek Holland L 28 23 22 131.3 114 38 16 128 62 58
Martin Perez L 24 16 16 99.0 65 32 10 103 50 47
Nick Tepesch R 26 26 25 138.3 82 42 17 150 76 71
Alex Claudio L 23 44 6 88.0 67 24 9 91 43 40
Matt Harrison L 29 13 13 71.7 47 26 8 75 37 35
Ross Detwiler L 29 32 10 85.3 55 26 9 92 44 41
Anthony Ranaudo R 25 24 24 124.7 82 51 18 132 72 67
Phil Klein R 26 49 0 63.7 69 31 7 54 28 26
Jake Thompson R 21 23 22 111.0 86 50 14 116 64 60
Nick Martinez R 24 28 24 136.3 82 56 17 148 80 75
Chi-Chi Gonzalez R 23 22 22 101.3 62 36 12 111 59 55
David Martinez R 27 27 18 113.7 65 36 14 126 66 62
Shawn Tolleson R 27 53 0 57.0 56 22 8 52 27 25
Lisalverto Bonilla R 25 42 4 75.7 76 34 10 71 40 37
Alfredo Figaro R 30 35 6 74.3 52 23 10 80 41 38
Colby Lewis R 35 18 18 101.0 77 29 16 114 61 57
Neftali Feliz R 27 38 0 36.7 33 15 4 34 17 16
Luke Jackson R 23 26 24 116.0 96 58 17 121 71 66
Andrew Faulkner L 22 25 21 114.0 75 51 16 125 70 65
Miles Mikolas R 26 41 8 81.3 53 24 11 89 46 43
Aaron Poreda L 28 27 1 32.3 30 13 3 31 16 15
Tanner Scheppers R 28 50 0 47.3 38 15 6 48 24 22
Keone Kela R 22 40 0 47.0 45 27 5 44 24 22
Zack Segovia R 32 16 15 87.0 53 26 13 99 54 50
Kyuji Fujikawa R 34 26 0 24.0 26 9 3 23 12 11
Ross Ohlendorf R 32 17 12 70.0 50 30 10 76 43 40
Edwar Cabrera L 27 26 22 125.7 85 47 21 139 78 73
Juan Carlos Oviedo R 33 19 0 18.7 16 8 2 18 10 9
Wilmer Font R 25 45 0 41.7 40 26 5 39 22 21
Spencer Patton R 27 43 3 68.0 66 30 11 66 39 36
Ross Wolf R 32 29 8 68.3 36 25 9 78 42 39
Roman Mendez R 24 43 0 51.0 38 23 6 51 28 26
Alec Asher R 23 27 26 134.7 90 39 25 152 87 81
Michael Kirkman L 28 42 5 61.0 54 38 8 62 37 35
Anthony Bass R 27 35 9 80.3 52 27 13 91 51 48
Pedro Figueroa L 29 32 0 36.0 23 21 6 40 25 23
Jonathan Edwards R 27 37 0 49.7 45 41 6 49 32 30
Kyle Lotzkar R 25 30 9 68.0 52 51 10 73 48 45
Francisco Mendoza R 27 41 0 53.7 39 35 8 58 36 34
Mitch Atkins R 29 23 19 109.3 72 42 22 129 77 72
Ryan Feierabend L 29 24 16 104.0 52 33 19 127 74 69
Scott Richmond R 35 20 14 78.0 40 33 15 95 59 55
Jerad Eickhoff R 24 26 25 131.7 83 51 27 153 94 88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Yu Darvish 173.7 727 29.8% 8.9% .294 3.06 3.20 73 77
Yovani Gallardo 179.0 774 19.0% 7.6% .289 4.07 4.11 98 99
Derek Holland 131.3 560 20.4% 6.8% .287 3.97 3.98 95 96
Martin Perez 99.0 432 15.0% 7.4% .289 4.27 4.25 103 102
Nick Tepesch 138.3 607 13.5% 6.9% .290 4.62 4.67 111 112
Alex Claudio 88.0 379 17.7% 6.3% .299 4.09 4.02 98 96
Matt Harrison 71.7 316 14.9% 8.2% .286 4.40 4.45 106 107
Ross Detwiler 85.3 374 14.7% 7.0% .298 4.32 4.32 104 104
Anthony Ranaudo 124.7 557 14.7% 9.2% .284 4.84 5.13 116 123
Phil Klein 63.7 276 25.0% 11.2% .286 3.68 3.94 88 95
Jake Thompson 111.0 499 17.2% 10.0% .299 4.86 4.85 117 116
Nick Martinez 136.3 613 13.4% 9.1% .290 4.95 4.98 119 120
Chi-Chi Gonzalez 101.3 451 13.8% 8.0% .296 4.88 4.78 117 115
David Martinez 113.7 503 12.9% 7.2% .293 4.91 4.76 118 114
Shawn Tolleson 57.0 245 22.9% 9.0% .278 3.95 4.03 95 97
Lisalverto Bonilla 75.7 332 22.9% 10.2% .293 4.40 4.36 106 105
Alfredo Figaro 74.3 326 16.0% 7.1% .293 4.60 4.50 110 108
Colby Lewis 101.0 446 17.3% 6.5% .307 5.08 4.71 122 113
Neftali Feliz 36.7 159 20.7% 9.4% .283 3.93 4.15 94 100
Luke Jackson 116.0 527 18.2% 11.0% .298 5.12 5.15 123 124
Andrew Faulkner 114.0 518 14.5% 9.8% .296 5.13 5.28 123 127
Miles Mikolas 81.3 357 14.9% 6.7% .296 4.76 4.71 114 113
Aaron Poreda 32.3 141 21.3% 9.2% .301 4.18 3.68 100 88
Tanner Scheppers 47.3 205 18.5% 7.3% .296 4.18 4.34 100 104
Keone Kela 47.0 212 21.2% 12.7% .295 4.21 4.60 101 110
Zack Segovia 87.0 386 13.7% 6.7% .298 5.17 5.01 124 120
Kyuji Fujikawa 24.0 104 25.0% 8.7% .313 4.12 3.93 99 94
Ross Ohlendorf 70.0 316 15.8% 9.5% .296 5.14 5.02 123 121
Edwar Cabrera 125.7 563 15.1% 8.3% .293 5.23 5.33 126 128
Juan Carlos Oviedo 18.7 82 19.5% 9.7% .290 4.34 4.34 104 104
Wilmer Font 41.7 190 21.0% 13.7% .293 4.54 4.87 109 117
Spencer Patton 68.0 300 22.0% 10.0% .291 4.76 4.79 114 115
Ross Wolf 68.3 308 11.7% 8.1% .295 5.14 5.15 123 124
Roman Mendez 51.0 227 16.7% 10.1% .287 4.59 4.67 110 112
Alec Asher 134.7 595 15.1% 6.6% .293 5.41 5.30 130 127
Michael Kirkman 61.0 283 19.1% 13.4% .302 5.16 5.12 124 123
Anthony Bass 80.3 359 14.5% 7.5% .296 5.38 5.04 129 121
Pedro Figueroa 36.0 169 13.6% 12.4% .293 5.75 6.03 138 145
Jonathan Edwards 49.7 239 18.8% 17.1% .298 5.44 5.57 131 134
Kyle Lotzkar 68.0 328 15.9% 15.5% .299 5.96 6.03 143 145
Francisco Mendoza 53.7 254 15.3% 13.8% .296 5.70 5.77 137 139
Mitch Atkins 109.3 499 14.4% 8.4% .301 5.93 5.86 142 141
Ryan Feierabend 104.0 472 11.0% 7.0% .298 5.97 5.66 143 136
Scott Richmond 78.0 362 11.0% 9.1% .297 6.35 6.16 152 148
Jerad Eickhoff 131.7 599 13.9% 8.5% .293 6.02 5.95 145 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish 173.7 11.24 3.37 0.88 135 5.0 Kerry Wood
Yovani Gallardo 179.0 7.39 2.97 1.06 101 2.8 Scott Kamieniecki
Derek Holland 131.3 7.81 2.60 1.10 104 2.2 Larry McWilliams
Martin Perez 99.0 5.91 2.91 0.91 97 1.3 Sean Burnett
Nick Tepesch 138.3 5.34 2.73 1.11 89 1.2 Mike Thompson
Alex Claudio 88.0 6.85 2.45 0.92 101 0.8 Steve Sharts
Matt Harrison 71.7 5.90 3.26 1.00 94 0.8 Jim Abbott
Ross Detwiler 85.3 5.80 2.74 0.95 95 0.8 Ricky Horton
Anthony Ranaudo 124.7 5.92 3.68 1.30 85 0.7 Mike Fyhrie
Phil Klein 63.7 9.75 4.38 0.99 112 0.6 Mark Acre
Jake Thompson 111.0 6.97 4.05 1.14 85 0.6 Mark Calvert
Nick Martinez 136.3 5.41 3.70 1.12 83 0.5 Frank Castillo
Chi-Chi Gonzalez 101.3 5.51 3.20 1.07 84 0.5 Preston Larrison
David Martinez 113.7 5.15 2.85 1.11 84 0.4 Pat Ahearne
Shawn Tolleson 57.0 8.84 3.47 1.26 105 0.3 Jeff Jones
Lisalverto Bonilla 75.7 9.04 4.04 1.19 94 0.3 Jesus Colome
Alfredo Figaro 74.3 6.30 2.79 1.21 90 0.3 Bryan Corey
Colby Lewis 101.0 6.86 2.58 1.43 81 0.3 Rick Helling
Neftali Feliz 36.7 8.09 3.68 0.98 105 0.2 Franklyn German
Luke Jackson 116.0 7.45 4.50 1.32 81 0.2 T.J. Tucker
Andrew Faulkner 114.0 5.92 4.03 1.26 80 0.2 John Habyan
Miles Mikolas 81.3 5.87 2.66 1.22 87 0.2 Gellert Grindelwald
Aaron Poreda 32.3 8.36 3.62 0.84 99 0.2 Dan Ricabal
Tanner Scheppers 47.3 7.23 2.85 1.14 99 0.1 Bob Wells
Keone Kela 47.0 8.62 5.17 0.96 98 0.1 Brad Voyles
Zack Segovia 87.0 5.48 2.69 1.34 80 0.1 Brian Moehler
Kyuji Fujikawa 24.0 9.75 3.38 1.13 100 0.1 Hector Carrasco
Ross Ohlendorf 70.0 6.43 3.86 1.29 80 0.1 Evan Thomas
Edwar Cabrera 125.7 6.09 3.37 1.50 79 0.0 Mike Prochaska
Juan Carlos Oviedo 18.7 7.70 3.85 0.96 95 0.0 Kirk Bullinger
Wilmer Font 41.7 8.63 5.61 1.08 91 -0.1 Josh Banks
Spencer Patton 68.0 8.74 3.97 1.46 87 -0.1 Jim Mann
Ross Wolf 68.3 4.74 3.29 1.19 80 -0.1 Karl Drews
Roman Mendez 51.0 6.71 4.06 1.06 90 -0.1 Scott Munter
Alec Asher 134.7 6.01 2.61 1.67 76 -0.3 Charlie Scott
Michael Kirkman 61.0 7.97 5.61 1.18 80 -0.3 Mike Bumatay
Anthony Bass 80.3 5.83 3.03 1.46 77 -0.4 Eric Boudreaux
Pedro Figueroa 36.0 5.75 5.25 1.50 72 -0.6 Dick Selma
Jonathan Edwards 49.7 8.15 7.42 1.09 76 -0.7 Bart Evans
Kyle Lotzkar 68.0 6.88 6.75 1.32 69 -0.8 Steve Hoeme
Francisco Mendoza 53.7 6.54 5.87 1.34 72 -0.9 Brad Tweedlie
Mitch Atkins 109.3 5.93 3.46 1.81 70 -1.0 Mike Heathcott
Ryan Feierabend 104.0 4.50 2.86 1.64 69 -1.0 Benj Sampson
Scott Richmond 78.0 4.62 3.81 1.73 65 -1.1 Alan Benes
Jerad Eickhoff 131.7 5.67 3.49 1.85 69 -1.3 Ty Hartshorn

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

41 Comments
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bruce
7 years ago

Not sure if I’m more excited by Odor’s Cano comp or chirinos Santovenia comp

Trey Baughn
7 years ago
Reply to  bruce

17 HR from Odor (and .166 ISO) seems very optimistic compared to other projections.

Matthew
7 years ago
Reply to  bruce

The Darvish-Kerry Wood one is cruel. A couple dominant seasons with an elbow injury

Rod Allen
7 years ago
Reply to  bruce

Nothing is better than an Alex Claudio Steve SHARTS comp. I literally just shart my pants thinking about it.