2015 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
It’s likely promising for the 2015 edition of the Blue Jays — a club that finished second in the AL East last season by Base Runs — it’s likely promising that five of the ten best WAR projections per ZiPS this year belong to players who’ve been acquired over the offseason. Ezequiel Carrera (548 PA, 1.1 WAR), Josh Donaldson (634 PA, 5.1 WAR), Russell Martin (453 PA, 3.6 WAR), Michael Saunders (442 PA, 2.1 WAR), and Devon Travis (505 PA, 0.9 WAR) all profile at least as competent bench players or, in the case of Donaldson, potential MVP candidates*.

*At least, that is, in a world without Mike Trout.

Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, for their part, remain the club’s best hitters and also curiously similar in terms of approach. Both are projected to produce something better than a .240 ISO. Neither, meanwhile, is forecast to produce a strikeout rate more than three percentage greater than his walk rate. And, finally, neither is expected to record anything greater than a .270 BABIP.

Pitchers
While the 25-man roster is likely to be populated by a number of new hitters, the Blue Jays’ pitching corps remains mostly the same. Sophomore right-hander Marcus Stroman technically receives the best projection of the club’s prospective starters, but he and Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey all profile similarly in terms of run prevention.

The right-handed Aaron Sanchez is a curious case, as a result of the relatively wide disparity between his raw talent and performances. Working exclusively in relief last year, Sanchez parlayed his 97.1 mph fastball into a 72 FIP- and 0.6 WAR over just 33.0 innings. His 7.4% walk rate as a major leaguer, however, represented the absolutely lowest such mark he’d posted over the course of his entire professional career. ZiPS forecasts more difficulty for Sanchez in a starting role this next season (127.2 IP, 12.2% BB, 0.9 WAR).

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below are Steve Tolleson (361 PA, 0.3 WAR) and Travis, but both are likely to receive starts at second base. Also omitted is Dioner Navarro (380 PA, 1.6 WAR), who played both catcher and DH last year. Among the club’s rookie-eligible batters, center fielder Dalton Pompey (561 PA, 1.2 WAR) receives the top projection. Left-hander Daniel Norris (132.1 IP, 1.3 WAR) features the best one among the team’s pitching prospects.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Blue Jays Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 29 3B 634 82 150 33 2 26 91 7 2
Jose Bautista R 34 RF 524 78 116 21 0 29 84 6 2
Russell Martin R 32 C 453 47 92 18 0 16 63 6 4
Edwin Encarnacion R 32 1B 559 76 132 27 1 30 97 6 1
Jose Reyes B 32 SS 609 80 160 31 5 10 50 26 6
Michael Saunders L 28 RF 442 66 96 22 3 14 60 10 4
Dioner Navarro B 31 C 380 34 93 15 0 10 49 1 0
Dalton Pompey B 22 CF 561 59 123 20 6 8 47 28 7
Ezequiel Carrera L 28 CF 548 63 127 20 5 6 42 35 10
Devon Travis R 24 2B 505 56 114 17 4 13 50 11 5
A.J. Jimenez R 25 C 317 28 73 17 1 4 28 3 2
Danny Valencia R 30 3B 427 41 100 25 2 12 55 2 3
Derrick Chung R 27 C 301 25 69 12 0 1 19 1 3
Ryan Schimpf L 27 2B 476 51 83 21 2 18 56 2 2
Kevin Pillar R 26 LF 609 66 153 37 3 11 64 20 8
Andy Dirks L 29 LF 271 33 64 12 2 6 24 4 1
Sean Ochinko R 27 C 263 24 56 13 0 6 26 0 1
Steve Tolleson R 31 SS 361 36 75 14 2 5 31 8 3
Dwight Smith Jr. L 22 LF 547 60 125 22 4 11 53 14 5
Daric Barton L 29 1B 469 51 95 22 1 8 47 2 1
Justin Smoak B 28 1B 525 61 112 24 0 18 68 0 1
Matt Hague R 29 3B 516 55 112 24 1 11 58 2 2
Josh Thole L 28 C 265 23 59 10 1 3 20 0 2
Maicer Izturis B 34 2B 232 22 54 10 0 3 14 5 2
Andy LaRoche R 31 3B 324 32 70 17 0 7 35 1 1
Melky Mesa R 28 CF 354 37 70 16 2 12 40 8 4
Jack Murphy B 27 C 235 21 43 9 1 5 23 0 0
Jake Fox R 32 1B 336 41 71 18 0 13 52 0 0
Brett Wallace L 28 1B 547 65 119 22 1 20 67 1 1
Chris Getz L 31 2B 231 24 51 7 1 1 15 11 3
Ramon Santiago B 35 2B 219 20 44 8 1 2 18 1 1
Cory Aldridge L 36 RF 291 35 57 7 0 14 35 1 1
Ryan Goins L 27 2B 580 49 127 25 3 5 48 4 5
Jared Goedert R 30 3B 450 47 92 19 1 11 48 2 0
Munenori Kawasaki L 34 2B 352 35 74 10 3 0 26 5 2
Mike Nickeas R 32 C 195 15 36 7 0 2 16 0 0
Chris Colabello R 31 1B 512 54 108 25 0 19 73 0 1
Jonathan Diaz R 30 SS 406 35 73 12 1 2 25 7 4
Ryan Kalish L 27 LF 302 34 64 12 3 6 30 10 4
Mitch Nay R 21 3B 496 46 110 25 1 5 45 4 2
Caleb Gindl L 26 RF 491 48 100 23 3 10 46 3 2
Ricardo Nanita L 34 RF 299 30 68 13 1 6 30 2 1
Brett Carroll R 32 RF 250 25 44 9 1 6 21 3 2
Brad Glenn R 28 RF 492 46 94 21 1 15 54 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Josh Donaldson 634 9.1% 19.6% .203 .295 .265 .338 .468 .352
Jose Bautista 524 15.1% 16.4% .248 .269 .267 .384 .515 .386
Russell Martin 453 11.0% 22.5% .170 .278 .237 .337 .407 .327
Edwin Encarnacion 559 11.4% 14.1% .244 .267 .270 .358 .514 .374
Jose Reyes 609 6.7% 9.9% .127 .303 .285 .333 .412 .329
Michael Saunders 442 10.0% 25.6% .179 .306 .246 .320 .425 .326
Dioner Navarro 380 6.6% 14.7% .129 .289 .266 .314 .395 .311
Dalton Pompey 561 7.3% 24.4% .109 .310 .239 .298 .348 .295
Ezequiel Carrera 548 6.0% 19.2% .096 .307 .252 .303 .348 .293
Devon Travis 505 5.3% 16.8% .137 .271 .244 .290 .381 .296
A.J. Jimenez 317 4.1% 18.9% .104 .290 .245 .275 .349 .274
Danny Valencia 427 4.7% 19.9% .161 .285 .249 .283 .410 .302
Derrick Chung 301 4.7% 15.6% .054 .291 .246 .288 .300 .260
Ryan Schimpf 476 8.4% 33.8% .185 .260 .195 .272 .380 .286
Kevin Pillar 609 3.6% 17.4% .132 .307 .266 .297 .398 .305
Andy Dirks 271 7.0% 19.2% .137 .302 .257 .311 .394 .311
Sean Ochinko 263 4.9% 21.7% .125 .270 .227 .270 .352 .276
Steve Tolleson 361 7.5% 23.5% .101 .294 .231 .291 .332 .279
Dwight Smith Jr. 547 7.1% 19.7% .124 .295 .248 .302 .372 .301
Daric Barton 469 11.1% 16.0% .118 .264 .233 .324 .351 .304
Justin Smoak 525 9.7% 21.9% .168 .278 .240 .316 .408 .318
Matt Hague 516 6.8% 20.3% .125 .281 .237 .297 .362 .293
Josh Thole 265 7.9% 15.8% .088 .287 .247 .309 .335 .280
Maicer Izturis 232 6.5% 11.6% .089 .277 .254 .304 .343 .289
Andy LaRoche 324 5.6% 17.3% .127 .264 .234 .282 .361 .282
Melky Mesa 354 4.0% 35.0% .167 .291 .210 .251 .377 .278
Jack Murphy 235 6.8% 28.9% .120 .264 .199 .256 .319 .258
Jake Fox 336 5.1% 25.0% .184 .271 .230 .286 .414 .305
Brett Wallace 547 6.2% 32.0% .167 .319 .237 .294 .404 .306
Chris Getz 231 5.6% 11.7% .057 .273 .243 .289 .300 .261
Ramon Santiago 219 7.8% 16.9% .084 .273 .229 .300 .313 .271
Cory Aldridge 291 8.2% 40.2% .186 .319 .216 .282 .402 .300
Ryan Goins 580 4.5% 20.7% .085 .293 .236 .271 .321 .257
Jared Goedert 450 7.1% 25.6% .130 .278 .222 .278 .352 .281
Munenori Kawasaki 352 6.8% 15.9% .052 .286 .236 .295 .288 .259
Mike Nickeas 195 6.2% 21.5% .073 .254 .205 .257 .278 .238
Chris Colabello 512 6.6% 28.7% .174 .290 .230 .287 .404 .304
Jonathan Diaz 406 8.4% 20.7% .056 .264 .207 .286 .263 .248
Ryan Kalish 302 6.3% 26.5% .129 .299 .229 .280 .358 .282
Mitch Nay 496 5.2% 20.2% .089 .288 .236 .276 .325 .269
Caleb Gindl 491 7.5% 25.7% .132 .287 .223 .284 .355 .282
Ricardo Nanita 299 4.3% 16.7% .117 .273 .242 .279 .359 .278
Brett Carroll 250 7.2% 31.6% .128 .266 .195 .261 .323 .262
Brad Glenn 492 5.5% 33.1% .148 .279 .206 .253 .354 .269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson 634 5.9 120 9 5.1 Todd Zeile
Jose Bautista 524 7.3 146 2 4.2 Dwight Evans
Russell Martin 453 4.8 105 7 3.6 Chris Hoiles
Edwin Encarnacion 559 6.9 137 -3 2.9 Roy Sievers
Jose Reyes 609 5.5 104 -7 2.7 Tony Fernandez
Michael Saunders 442 4.9 104 9 2.1 Michael Tucker
Dioner Navarro 380 4.6 95 -2 1.6 Joe Azcue
Dalton Pompey 561 4.0 78 3 1.2 Milt Cuyler
Ezequiel Carrera 548 4.1 79 1 1.1 Chris Duffy
Devon Travis 505 4.0 84 0 0.9 Steven Singleton
A.J. Jimenez 317 3.4 71 3 0.8 Guillermo Garcia
Danny Valencia 427 4.1 89 -2 0.6 Juan Uribe
Derrick Chung 301 2.9 63 3 0.4 Raul Chavez
Ryan Schimpf 476 3.4 78 0 0.4 Todd Carey
Kevin Pillar 609 4.4 90 0 0.4 Mitch Maier
Andy Dirks 271 4.5 93 0 0.4 Len Gabrielson
Sean Ochinko 263 3.2 70 -1 0.4 Jeff Winchester
Steve Tolleson 361 3.5 72 -1 0.3 Bill Lyons
Dwight Smith Jr. 547 4.1 85 1 0.3 Tom Lombarski
Daric Barton 469 4.0 87 3 0.2 Mike Twardoski
Justin Smoak 525 4.5 98 -3 0.2 Larry Sutton
Matt Hague 516 3.8 81 -5 0.1 Dale Berra
Josh Thole 265 3.5 78 -5 0.1 Matt Tupman
Maicer Izturis 232 3.8 79 -2 0.1 Craig Wilson
Andy LaRoche 324 3.6 76 -1 0.0 Jason Wood
Melky Mesa 354 3.2 71 0 0.0 Scott Wade
Jack Murphy 235 2.8 58 -1 0.0 Tom Nieto
Jake Fox 336 4.2 90 -1 -0.1 Ed Sprague
Brett Wallace 547 4.2 90 -1 -0.1 Chris Wakeland
Chris Getz 231 3.4 63 0 -0.1 Paul Faries
Ramon Santiago 219 3.2 70 -2 -0.2 Rene Gonzales
Cory Aldridge 291 3.9 86 -2 -0.2 Dann Howitt
Ryan Goins 580 3.0 63 5 -0.2 Felix Molina
Jared Goedert 450 3.4 73 -4 -0.2 Chris Saunders
Munenori Kawasaki 352 3.0 62 0 -0.3 Don Blasingame
Mike Nickeas 195 2.4 48 -1 -0.4 Charlie Greene
Chris Colabello 512 4.0 88 -1 -0.4 Juan Thomas
Jonathan Diaz 406 2.5 53 0 -0.4 Brandon Chaves
Ryan Kalish 302 3.6 75 -1 -0.4 Jalal Leach
Mitch Nay 496 3.2 66 -1 -0.5 Rob Cosby
Caleb Gindl 491 3.5 75 1 -0.5 Craig Cooper
Ricardo Nanita 299 3.6 75 -1 -0.5 Joe Orsulak
Brett Carroll 250 2.8 60 0 -0.8 Alan Cockrell
Brad Glenn 492 3.0 65 -3 -1.5 Troy Farnsworth

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Marcus Stroman R 24 34 30 174.0 150 38 18 169 77 72
R.A. Dickey R 37 30 30 194.0 152 59 25 185 93 87
Mark Buehrle L 36 30 30 191.0 110 45 18 214 93 87
Drew Hutchison R 24 27 27 151.3 143 48 20 146 76 71
Daniel Norris L 22 34 28 132.3 143 60 20 121 68 64
Marco Estrada R 31 31 22 142.0 130 38 25 137 75 70
Liam Hendriks R 26 31 28 167.0 115 35 23 184 93 87
Aaron Sanchez R 22 47 20 127.7 102 70 14 119 67 63
Jeff Francis L 34 24 16 96.3 81 25 14 100 51 48
Brett Cecil L 28 70 0 64.7 75 27 6 56 27 25
Aaron Loup L 27 74 0 74.7 60 24 7 70 32 30
Todd Redmond R 30 46 0 71.3 60 25 7 70 33 31
Rob Rasmussen L 26 54 0 61.3 56 28 6 57 29 27
Colt Hynes L 30 56 0 63.3 56 13 8 63 30 28
Wilton Lopez R 31 51 0 65.0 51 12 8 68 31 29
Jayson Aquino L 22 18 17 100.7 67 40 14 112 61 57
Steve Delabar R 31 60 0 61.7 74 34 8 53 31 29
Raul Valdes L 37 32 9 75.7 66 22 13 79 44 41
Dustin McGowan R 33 45 4 58.7 48 28 8 58 32 30
Cory Burns R 27 55 0 69.3 57 23 8 71 35 33
Frank Francisco R 35 20 0 18.3 19 7 2 17 10 9
Juan Oramas L 25 21 20 101.0 83 42 16 108 62 58
Ryan Tepera R 27 40 11 89.3 66 40 12 94 52 49
John Stilson R 24 33 0 44.7 36 18 5 45 24 22
Bo Schultz R 29 37 16 111.7 69 41 15 124 67 63
Matt West R 26 42 0 57.0 49 21 8 58 31 29
Preston Guilmet R 27 52 0 58.7 52 16 10 59 32 30
Chad Jenkins R 27 44 4 77.7 44 17 12 89 45 42
Scott Barnes L 27 33 2 42.3 40 25 6 41 26 24
Greg Infante R 27 40 0 44.0 37 26 5 44 26 24
Greg Burke R 32 46 0 60.3 56 25 9 61 34 32
Andrew Albers L 29 26 26 140.7 87 37 23 164 90 84
Bobby Korecky R 35 43 1 62.0 40 21 9 69 37 35
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 30 33 15 109.7 76 37 19 123 71 66
Kyle Drabek R 27 25 13 79.3 53 30 15 90 54 50
P.J. Walters R 30 26 25 129.0 83 54 22 148 88 82
Scott Copeland R 27 28 25 141.3 76 70 20 164 96 90

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Marcus Stroman 174.0 729 20.6% 5.2% .292 3.72 3.61 92 89
R.A. Dickey 194.0 826 18.4% 7.1% .276 4.04 4.43 100 109
Mark Buehrle 191.0 832 13.2% 5.4% .299 4.10 4.11 101 102
Drew Hutchison 151.3 648 22.1% 7.4% .293 4.22 4.17 104 103
Daniel Norris 132.3 578 24.7% 10.4% .290 4.35 4.59 107 113
Marco Estrada 142.0 601 21.6% 6.3% .276 4.44 4.57 110 113
Liam Hendriks 167.0 720 16.0% 4.9% .300 4.69 4.47 116 111
Aaron Sanchez 127.7 572 17.8% 12.2% .277 4.44 4.86 110 120
Jeff Francis 96.3 414 19.6% 6.0% .298 4.48 4.35 111 107
Brett Cecil 64.7 277 27.1% 9.7% .301 3.48 3.41 86 84
Aaron Loup 74.7 318 18.9% 7.5% .285 3.62 3.93 89 97
Todd Redmond 71.3 309 19.4% 8.1% .293 3.91 3.75 97 93
Rob Rasmussen 61.3 269 20.8% 10.4% .293 3.96 4.33 98 107
Colt Hynes 63.3 266 21.1% 4.9% .296 3.98 3.85 98 95
Wilton Lopez 65.0 275 18.5% 4.4% .297 4.02 3.85 99 95
Jayson Aquino 100.7 454 14.8% 8.8% .300 5.10 5.09 126 126
Steve Delabar 61.7 272 27.2% 12.5% .296 4.23 4.36 104 108
Raul Valdes 75.7 328 20.1% 6.7% .296 4.88 4.75 121 117
Dustin McGowan 58.7 262 18.3% 10.7% .286 4.60 4.94 114 122
Cory Burns 69.3 302 18.9% 7.6% .300 4.28 4.16 106 103
Frank Francisco 18.3 79 24.1% 8.9% .295 4.42 3.76 109 93
Juan Oramas 101.0 453 18.3% 9.3% .301 5.17 5.08 128 126
Ryan Tepera 89.3 402 16.4% 10.0% .294 4.94 4.98 122 123
John Stilson 44.7 197 18.3% 9.1% .296 4.43 4.52 109 112
Bo Schultz 111.7 500 13.8% 8.2% .295 5.08 4.96 125 123
Matt West 57.0 250 19.6% 8.4% .296 4.58 4.59 113 113
Preston Guilmet 58.7 251 20.7% 6.4% .288 4.60 4.58 114 113
Chad Jenkins 77.7 339 13.0% 5.0% .293 4.87 4.88 120 121
Scott Barnes 42.3 193 20.7% 13.0% .297 5.10 5.28 126 130
Greg Infante 44.0 202 18.3% 12.9% .298 4.91 4.97 121 123
Greg Burke 60.3 267 21.0% 9.4% .299 4.77 4.65 118 115
Andrew Albers 140.7 623 14.0% 5.9% .301 5.37 5.12 133 126
Bobby Korecky 62.0 276 14.5% 7.6% .297 5.08 5.08 125 125
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 109.7 489 15.5% 7.6% .297 5.42 5.34 134 132
Kyle Drabek 79.3 358 14.8% 8.4% .293 5.67 5.68 140 140
P.J. Walters 129.0 589 14.1% 9.2% .298 5.72 5.62 141 139
Scott Copeland 141.3 658 11.6% 10.6% .298 5.73 5.71 142 141

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Marcus Stroman 174.0 7.76 1.97 0.93 108 3.1 Carl Pavano
R.A. Dickey 194.0 7.05 2.74 1.16 99 2.7 Joe Niekro
Mark Buehrle 191.0 5.18 2.12 0.85 98 2.5 Claude Osteen
Drew Hutchison 151.3 8.51 2.86 1.19 95 1.8 Ervin Santana
Daniel Norris 132.3 9.73 4.08 1.36 92 1.3 Cliff Lee
Marco Estrada 142.0 8.24 2.41 1.58 90 1.2 Hideki Irabu
Liam Hendriks 167.0 6.20 1.89 1.24 86 0.9 Heath Totten
Aaron Sanchez 127.7 7.19 4.93 0.99 90 0.9 Joe Blanton
Jeff Francis 96.3 7.57 2.34 1.31 90 0.7 Buzz Oliver
Brett Cecil 64.7 10.43 3.76 0.83 115 0.7 Hector Mercado
Aaron Loup 74.7 7.23 2.89 0.84 111 0.6 Don Florence
Todd Redmond 71.3 7.57 3.16 0.88 103 0.3 Chad Paronto
Rob Rasmussen 61.3 8.22 4.11 0.88 101 0.2 Scott Wiggins
Colt Hynes 63.3 7.96 1.85 1.14 101 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez
Wilton Lopez 65.0 7.06 1.66 1.11 100 0.2 Gil Heredia
Jayson Aquino 100.7 5.99 3.57 1.25 79 0.0 Jim Crowell
Steve Delabar 61.7 10.79 4.96 1.17 95 0.0 Calvin Jones
Raul Valdes 75.7 7.85 2.62 1.55 82 0.0 Chris Nichting
Dustin McGowan 58.7 7.36 4.29 1.23 87 0.0 David Lee
Cory Burns 69.3 7.40 2.99 1.04 94 0.0 Scott Roehl
Frank Francisco 18.3 9.34 3.44 0.98 91 0.0 Ricky Bottalico
Juan Oramas 101.0 7.40 3.74 1.43 78 -0.1 Mike Bynum
Ryan Tepera 89.3 6.65 4.03 1.21 81 -0.1 Marty McLeary
John Stilson 44.7 7.25 3.62 1.01 91 -0.1 Steve LaRose
Bo Schultz 111.7 5.56 3.30 1.21 79 -0.2 Elliot Brown
Matt West 57.0 7.74 3.32 1.26 88 -0.2 Steve Ellsworth
Preston Guilmet 58.7 7.97 2.45 1.53 87 -0.3 Heath Bost
Chad Jenkins 77.7 5.10 1.97 1.39 82 -0.3 Tony Phillips
Scott Barnes 42.3 8.51 5.32 1.28 79 -0.3 Keith Glauber
Greg Infante 44.0 7.57 5.32 1.02 82 -0.4 Johnny Humphries
Greg Burke 60.3 8.36 3.73 1.34 84 -0.4 David Lee
Andrew Albers 140.7 5.57 2.37 1.47 75 -0.5 Scott Downs
Bobby Korecky 62.0 5.81 3.05 1.31 79 -0.6 Terry Mathews
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 109.7 6.24 3.04 1.56 74 -0.6 Jason Roach
Kyle Drabek 79.3 6.02 3.40 1.70 71 -0.7 Vic Martin
P.J. Walters 129.0 5.79 3.77 1.53 70 -1.0 Kip Bouknight
Scott Copeland 141.3 4.84 4.46 1.27 70 -1.1 Jim Hunter

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Uncle Mumbly
Guest
Uncle Mumbly

~9 WAR out of Stroman, Dickey and Buerhle seems overly optimistic. Dickey has only reached 3 WAR once in his career and Stroman’s track record is only 20 starts. Buerhle could go either way.

Not saying its crazy, but I would take the under.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

take any 3 starting pitchers, one in his 40’s, one over 35…

taking the under on any combined WAR is probably not a trip on the wild side, given probability injury takes down at least 1.

I get your point, though.

grant
Guest
grant

Dickey and Buerhle are two of the rare guys where you can kind of throw FIP (and therefore fWAR) out the window. Buerhle has proven over thousands of innings that he consistently beats FIP, his BABIP and LOB are lower than typical. Dickey, as a knuckler, has a low BABIP ever since adopting the knuckleball as his primary pitch. Anything FIP based undervalues those two.

9 WAR out of the three mite be a smidge optimistic, but probably more reasonably than the Steamer projection that has Dickey and Buerhle combining for about 3 WAR.

Pure
Guest
Pure

But according to Dave Cameron no pitcher can consistently beat their FIP!

K
Guest
K

Cite Dave Cameron saying “no pitcher can consistently beat their FIP”. Any reply that fails to produce that citation will be understood as an admission that you were lying.

grant
Guest
grant

Cameron says, rightly I think, that don’t assume a pitcher can beat his FIP until there’s a lot of innings of evidence. When a guy has a year or two of beating FIP, be skeptical. But he acknowledges that there is evidence that some pitchers do outperform FIP. They’re just few and far between, and it takes years to truly identify them.

When a guy (buerhle) has 14 years of beating his FIP, that’s solid. And knucklers as a species are acknowledged to usually beat FIP, due to their lower BABIP.

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles

Not true at all, the knuckleball caveat (weaker contact) has been well accepted by the Sabr community,.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Jered Weaver says “hi.”

everdiso
Member
everdiso

not that optimistic. the three combined for 8.9war last year, and that’s with stro in the minors for 1/3 of the season.

everdiso
Member
everdiso

8.9war from the three last year, with stroman in the minors for 1/3 of the year.

forecasting the same total value seems pretty reasonable when forecasting all 3 as fulltime guys with a bit of regression overallm