2015 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
It’s likely promising for the 2015 edition of the Blue Jays — a club that finished second in the AL East last season by Base Runs — it’s likely promising that five of the ten best WAR projections per ZiPS this year belong to players who’ve been acquired over the offseason. Ezequiel Carrera (548 PA, 1.1 WAR), Josh Donaldson (634 PA, 5.1 WAR), Russell Martin (453 PA, 3.6 WAR), Michael Saunders (442 PA, 2.1 WAR), and Devon Travis (505 PA, 0.9 WAR) all profile at least as competent bench players or, in the case of Donaldson, potential MVP candidates*.

*At least, that is, in a world without Mike Trout.

Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, for their part, remain the club’s best hitters and also curiously similar in terms of approach. Both are projected to produce something better than a .240 ISO. Neither, meanwhile, is forecast to produce a strikeout rate more than three percentage greater than his walk rate. And, finally, neither is expected to record anything greater than a .270 BABIP.

Pitchers
While the 25-man roster is likely to be populated by a number of new hitters, the Blue Jays’ pitching corps remains mostly the same. Sophomore right-hander Marcus Stroman technically receives the best projection of the club’s prospective starters, but he and Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey all profile similarly in terms of run prevention.

The right-handed Aaron Sanchez is a curious case, as a result of the relatively wide disparity between his raw talent and performances. Working exclusively in relief last year, Sanchez parlayed his 97.1 mph fastball into a 72 FIP- and 0.6 WAR over just 33.0 innings. His 7.4% walk rate as a major leaguer, however, represented the absolutely lowest such mark he’d posted over the course of his entire professional career. ZiPS forecasts more difficulty for Sanchez in a starting role this next season (127.2 IP, 12.2% BB, 0.9 WAR).

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below are Steve Tolleson (361 PA, 0.3 WAR) and Travis, but both are likely to receive starts at second base. Also omitted is Dioner Navarro (380 PA, 1.6 WAR), who played both catcher and DH last year. Among the club’s rookie-eligible batters, center fielder Dalton Pompey (561 PA, 1.2 WAR) receives the top projection. Left-hander Daniel Norris (132.1 IP, 1.3 WAR) features the best one among the team’s pitching prospects.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Josh Donaldson	R	29	3B	634	82	150	33	2	26	91	7	2
Jose Bautista	R	34	RF	524	78	116	21	0	29	84	6	2
Russell Martin	R	32	C	453	47	92	18	0	16	63	6	4
Edwin Encarnacion	R	32	1B	559	76	132	27	1	30	97	6	1
Jose Reyes	B	32	SS	609	80	160	31	5	10	50	26	6
Michael Saunders	L	28	RF	442	66	96	22	3	14	60	10	4
Dioner Navarro	B	31	C	380	34	93	15	0	10	49	1	0
Dalton Pompey	B	22	CF	561	59	123	20	6	8	47	28	7
Ezequiel Carrera	L	28	CF	548	63	127	20	5	6	42	35	10
Devon Travis	R	24	2B	505	56	114	17	4	13	50	11	5
A.J. Jimenez	R	25	C	317	28	73	17	1	4	28	3	2
Danny Valencia	R	30	3B	427	41	100	25	2	12	55	2	3
Derrick Chung	R	27	C	301	25	69	12	0	1	19	1	3
Ryan Schimpf	L	27	2B	476	51	83	21	2	18	56	2	2
Kevin Pillar	R	26	LF	609	66	153	37	3	11	64	20	8
Andy Dirks	L	29	LF	271	33	64	12	2	6	24	4	1
Sean Ochinko	R	27	C	263	24	56	13	0	6	26	0	1
Steve Tolleson	R	31	SS	361	36	75	14	2	5	31	8	3
Dwight Smith Jr.	L	22	LF	547	60	125	22	4	11	53	14	5
Daric Barton	L	29	1B	469	51	95	22	1	8	47	2	1
Justin Smoak	B	28	1B	525	61	112	24	0	18	68	0	1
Matt Hague	R	29	3B	516	55	112	24	1	11	58	2	2
Josh Thole	L	28	C	265	23	59	10	1	3	20	0	2
Maicer Izturis	B	34	2B	232	22	54	10	0	3	14	5	2
Andy LaRoche	R	31	3B	324	32	70	17	0	7	35	1	1
Melky Mesa	R	28	CF	354	37	70	16	2	12	40	8	4
Jack Murphy	B	27	C	235	21	43	9	1	5	23	0	0
Jake Fox	R	32	1B	336	41	71	18	0	13	52	0	0
Brett Wallace	L	28	1B	547	65	119	22	1	20	67	1	1
Chris Getz	L	31	2B	231	24	51	7	1	1	15	11	3
Ramon Santiago	B	35	2B	219	20	44	8	1	2	18	1	1
Cory Aldridge	L	36	RF	291	35	57	7	0	14	35	1	1
Ryan Goins	L	27	2B	580	49	127	25	3	5	48	4	5
Jared Goedert	R	30	3B	450	47	92	19	1	11	48	2	0
Munenori Kawasaki	L	34	2B	352	35	74	10	3	0	26	5	2
Mike Nickeas	R	32	C	195	15	36	7	0	2	16	0	0
Chris Colabello	R	31	1B	512	54	108	25	0	19	73	0	1
Jonathan Diaz	R	30	SS	406	35	73	12	1	2	25	7	4
Ryan Kalish	L	27	LF	302	34	64	12	3	6	30	10	4
Mitch Nay	R	21	3B	496	46	110	25	1	5	45	4	2
Caleb Gindl	L	26	RF	491	48	100	23	3	10	46	3	2
Ricardo Nanita	L	34	RF	299	30	68	13	1	6	30	2	1
Brett Carroll	R	32	RF	250	25	44	9	1	6	21	3	2
Brad Glenn	R	28	RF	492	46	94	21	1	15	54	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Josh Donaldson	634	9.1%	19.6%	.203	.295	.265	.338	.468	.352
Jose Bautista	524	15.1%	16.4%	.248	.269	.267	.384	.515	.386
Russell Martin	453	11.0%	22.5%	.170	.278	.237	.337	.407	.327
Edwin Encarnacion	559	11.4%	14.1%	.244	.267	.270	.358	.514	.374
Jose Reyes	609	6.7%	9.9%	.127	.303	.285	.333	.412	.329
Michael Saunders	442	10.0%	25.6%	.179	.306	.246	.320	.425	.326
Dioner Navarro	380	6.6%	14.7%	.129	.289	.266	.314	.395	.311
Dalton Pompey	561	7.3%	24.4%	.109	.310	.239	.298	.348	.295
Ezequiel Carrera	548	6.0%	19.2%	.096	.307	.252	.303	.348	.293
Devon Travis	505	5.3%	16.8%	.137	.271	.244	.290	.381	.296
A.J. Jimenez	317	4.1%	18.9%	.104	.290	.245	.275	.349	.274
Danny Valencia	427	4.7%	19.9%	.161	.285	.249	.283	.410	.302
Derrick Chung	301	4.7%	15.6%	.054	.291	.246	.288	.300	.260
Ryan Schimpf	476	8.4%	33.8%	.185	.260	.195	.272	.380	.286
Kevin Pillar	609	3.6%	17.4%	.132	.307	.266	.297	.398	.305
Andy Dirks	271	7.0%	19.2%	.137	.302	.257	.311	.394	.311
Sean Ochinko	263	4.9%	21.7%	.125	.270	.227	.270	.352	.276
Steve Tolleson	361	7.5%	23.5%	.101	.294	.231	.291	.332	.279
Dwight Smith Jr.	547	7.1%	19.7%	.124	.295	.248	.302	.372	.301
Daric Barton	469	11.1%	16.0%	.118	.264	.233	.324	.351	.304
Justin Smoak	525	9.7%	21.9%	.168	.278	.240	.316	.408	.318
Matt Hague	516	6.8%	20.3%	.125	.281	.237	.297	.362	.293
Josh Thole	265	7.9%	15.8%	.088	.287	.247	.309	.335	.280
Maicer Izturis	232	6.5%	11.6%	.089	.277	.254	.304	.343	.289
Andy LaRoche	324	5.6%	17.3%	.127	.264	.234	.282	.361	.282
Melky Mesa	354	4.0%	35.0%	.167	.291	.210	.251	.377	.278
Jack Murphy	235	6.8%	28.9%	.120	.264	.199	.256	.319	.258
Jake Fox	336	5.1%	25.0%	.184	.271	.230	.286	.414	.305
Brett Wallace	547	6.2%	32.0%	.167	.319	.237	.294	.404	.306
Chris Getz	231	5.6%	11.7%	.057	.273	.243	.289	.300	.261
Ramon Santiago	219	7.8%	16.9%	.084	.273	.229	.300	.313	.271
Cory Aldridge	291	8.2%	40.2%	.186	.319	.216	.282	.402	.300
Ryan Goins	580	4.5%	20.7%	.085	.293	.236	.271	.321	.257
Jared Goedert	450	7.1%	25.6%	.130	.278	.222	.278	.352	.281
Munenori Kawasaki	352	6.8%	15.9%	.052	.286	.236	.295	.288	.259
Mike Nickeas	195	6.2%	21.5%	.073	.254	.205	.257	.278	.238
Chris Colabello	512	6.6%	28.7%	.174	.290	.230	.287	.404	.304
Jonathan Diaz	406	8.4%	20.7%	.056	.264	.207	.286	.263	.248
Ryan Kalish	302	6.3%	26.5%	.129	.299	.229	.280	.358	.282
Mitch Nay	496	5.2%	20.2%	.089	.288	.236	.276	.325	.269
Caleb Gindl	491	7.5%	25.7%	.132	.287	.223	.284	.355	.282
Ricardo Nanita	299	4.3%	16.7%	.117	.273	.242	.279	.359	.278
Brett Carroll	250	7.2%	31.6%	.128	.266	.195	.261	.323	.262
Brad Glenn	492	5.5%	33.1%	.148	.279	.206	.253	.354	.269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson	634	5.9	120	9	5.1	Todd Zeile
Jose Bautista	524	7.3	146	2	4.2	Dwight Evans
Russell Martin	453	4.8	105	7	3.6	Chris Hoiles
Edwin Encarnacion	559	6.9	137	-3	2.9	Roy Sievers
Jose Reyes	609	5.5	104	-7	2.7	Tony Fernandez
Michael Saunders	442	4.9	104	9	2.1	Michael Tucker
Dioner Navarro	380	4.6	95	-2	1.6	Joe Azcue
Dalton Pompey	561	4.0	78	3	1.2	Milt Cuyler
Ezequiel Carrera	548	4.1	79	1	1.1	Chris Duffy
Devon Travis	505	4.0	84	0	0.9	Steven Singleton
A.J. Jimenez	317	3.4	71	3	0.8	Guillermo Garcia
Danny Valencia	427	4.1	89	-2	0.6	Juan Uribe
Derrick Chung	301	2.9	63	3	0.4	Raul Chavez
Ryan Schimpf	476	3.4	78	0	0.4	Todd Carey
Kevin Pillar	609	4.4	90	0	0.4	Mitch Maier
Andy Dirks	271	4.5	93	0	0.4	Len Gabrielson
Sean Ochinko	263	3.2	70	-1	0.4	Jeff Winchester
Steve Tolleson	361	3.5	72	-1	0.3	Bill Lyons
Dwight Smith Jr.	547	4.1	85	1	0.3	Tom Lombarski
Daric Barton	469	4.0	87	3	0.2	Mike Twardoski
Justin Smoak	525	4.5	98	-3	0.2	Larry Sutton
Matt Hague	516	3.8	81	-5	0.1	Dale Berra
Josh Thole	265	3.5	78	-5	0.1	Matt Tupman
Maicer Izturis	232	3.8	79	-2	0.1	Craig Wilson
Andy LaRoche	324	3.6	76	-1	0.0	Jason Wood
Melky Mesa	354	3.2	71	0	0.0	Scott Wade
Jack Murphy	235	2.8	58	-1	0.0	Tom Nieto
Jake Fox	336	4.2	90	-1	-0.1	Ed Sprague
Brett Wallace	547	4.2	90	-1	-0.1	Chris Wakeland
Chris Getz	231	3.4	63	0	-0.1	Paul Faries
Ramon Santiago	219	3.2	70	-2	-0.2	Rene Gonzales
Cory Aldridge	291	3.9	86	-2	-0.2	Dann Howitt
Ryan Goins	580	3.0	63	5	-0.2	Felix Molina
Jared Goedert	450	3.4	73	-4	-0.2	Chris Saunders
Munenori Kawasaki	352	3.0	62	0	-0.3	Don Blasingame
Mike Nickeas	195	2.4	48	-1	-0.4	Charlie Greene
Chris Colabello	512	4.0	88	-1	-0.4	Juan Thomas
Jonathan Diaz	406	2.5	53	0	-0.4	Brandon Chaves
Ryan Kalish	302	3.6	75	-1	-0.4	Jalal Leach
Mitch Nay	496	3.2	66	-1	-0.5	Rob Cosby
Caleb Gindl	491	3.5	75	1	-0.5	Craig Cooper
Ricardo Nanita	299	3.6	75	-1	-0.5	Joe Orsulak
Brett Carroll	250	2.8	60	0	-0.8	Alan Cockrell
Brad Glenn	492	3.0	65	-3	-1.5	Troy Farnsworth

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Marcus Stroman	R	24	34	30	174.0	150	38	18	169	77	72
R.A. Dickey	R	37	30	30	194.0	152	59	25	185	93	87
Mark Buehrle	L	36	30	30	191.0	110	45	18	214	93	87
Drew Hutchison	R	24	27	27	151.3	143	48	20	146	76	71
Daniel Norris	L	22	34	28	132.3	143	60	20	121	68	64
Marco Estrada	R	31	31	22	142.0	130	38	25	137	75	70
Liam Hendriks	R	26	31	28	167.0	115	35	23	184	93	87
Aaron Sanchez	R	22	47	20	127.7	102	70	14	119	67	63
Jeff Francis	L	34	24	16	96.3	81	25	14	100	51	48
Brett Cecil	L	28	70	0	64.7	75	27	6	56	27	25
Aaron Loup	L	27	74	0	74.7	60	24	7	70	32	30
Todd Redmond	R	30	46	0	71.3	60	25	7	70	33	31
Rob Rasmussen	L	26	54	0	61.3	56	28	6	57	29	27
Colt Hynes	L	30	56	0	63.3	56	13	8	63	30	28
Wilton Lopez	R	31	51	0	65.0	51	12	8	68	31	29
Jayson Aquino	L	22	18	17	100.7	67	40	14	112	61	57
Steve Delabar	R	31	60	0	61.7	74	34	8	53	31	29
Raul Valdes	L	37	32	9	75.7	66	22	13	79	44	41
Dustin McGowan	R	33	45	4	58.7	48	28	8	58	32	30
Cory Burns	R	27	55	0	69.3	57	23	8	71	35	33
Frank Francisco	R	35	20	0	18.3	19	7	2	17	10	9
Juan Oramas	L	25	21	20	101.0	83	42	16	108	62	58
Ryan Tepera	R	27	40	11	89.3	66	40	12	94	52	49
John Stilson	R	24	33	0	44.7	36	18	5	45	24	22
Bo Schultz	R	29	37	16	111.7	69	41	15	124	67	63
Matt West	R	26	42	0	57.0	49	21	8	58	31	29
Preston Guilmet	R	27	52	0	58.7	52	16	10	59	32	30
Chad Jenkins	R	27	44	4	77.7	44	17	12	89	45	42
Scott Barnes	L	27	33	2	42.3	40	25	6	41	26	24
Greg Infante	R	27	40	0	44.0	37	26	5	44	26	24
Greg Burke	R	32	46	0	60.3	56	25	9	61	34	32
Andrew Albers	L	29	26	26	140.7	87	37	23	164	90	84
Bobby Korecky	R	35	43	1	62.0	40	21	9	69	37	35
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	R	30	33	15	109.7	76	37	19	123	71	66
Kyle Drabek	R	27	25	13	79.3	53	30	15	90	54	50
P.J. Walters	R	30	26	25	129.0	83	54	22	148	88	82
Scott Copeland	R	27	28	25	141.3	76	70	20	164	96	90

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Marcus Stroman	174.0	729	20.6%	5.2%	.292	3.72	3.61	92	89
R.A. Dickey	194.0	826	18.4%	7.1%	.276	4.04	4.43	100	109
Mark Buehrle	191.0	832	13.2%	5.4%	.299	4.10	4.11	101	102
Drew Hutchison	151.3	648	22.1%	7.4%	.293	4.22	4.17	104	103
Daniel Norris	132.3	578	24.7%	10.4%	.290	4.35	4.59	107	113
Marco Estrada	142.0	601	21.6%	6.3%	.276	4.44	4.57	110	113
Liam Hendriks	167.0	720	16.0%	4.9%	.300	4.69	4.47	116	111
Aaron Sanchez	127.7	572	17.8%	12.2%	.277	4.44	4.86	110	120
Jeff Francis	96.3	414	19.6%	6.0%	.298	4.48	4.35	111	107
Brett Cecil	64.7	277	27.1%	9.7%	.301	3.48	3.41	86	84
Aaron Loup	74.7	318	18.9%	7.5%	.285	3.62	3.93	89	97
Todd Redmond	71.3	309	19.4%	8.1%	.293	3.91	3.75	97	93
Rob Rasmussen	61.3	269	20.8%	10.4%	.293	3.96	4.33	98	107
Colt Hynes	63.3	266	21.1%	4.9%	.296	3.98	3.85	98	95
Wilton Lopez	65.0	275	18.5%	4.4%	.297	4.02	3.85	99	95
Jayson Aquino	100.7	454	14.8%	8.8%	.300	5.10	5.09	126	126
Steve Delabar	61.7	272	27.2%	12.5%	.296	4.23	4.36	104	108
Raul Valdes	75.7	328	20.1%	6.7%	.296	4.88	4.75	121	117
Dustin McGowan	58.7	262	18.3%	10.7%	.286	4.60	4.94	114	122
Cory Burns	69.3	302	18.9%	7.6%	.300	4.28	4.16	106	103
Frank Francisco	18.3	79	24.1%	8.9%	.295	4.42	3.76	109	93
Juan Oramas	101.0	453	18.3%	9.3%	.301	5.17	5.08	128	126
Ryan Tepera	89.3	402	16.4%	10.0%	.294	4.94	4.98	122	123
John Stilson	44.7	197	18.3%	9.1%	.296	4.43	4.52	109	112
Bo Schultz	111.7	500	13.8%	8.2%	.295	5.08	4.96	125	123
Matt West	57.0	250	19.6%	8.4%	.296	4.58	4.59	113	113
Preston Guilmet	58.7	251	20.7%	6.4%	.288	4.60	4.58	114	113
Chad Jenkins	77.7	339	13.0%	5.0%	.293	4.87	4.88	120	121
Scott Barnes	42.3	193	20.7%	13.0%	.297	5.10	5.28	126	130
Greg Infante	44.0	202	18.3%	12.9%	.298	4.91	4.97	121	123
Greg Burke	60.3	267	21.0%	9.4%	.299	4.77	4.65	118	115
Andrew Albers	140.7	623	14.0%	5.9%	.301	5.37	5.12	133	126
Bobby Korecky	62.0	276	14.5%	7.6%	.297	5.08	5.08	125	125
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	109.7	489	15.5%	7.6%	.297	5.42	5.34	134	132
Kyle Drabek	79.3	358	14.8%	8.4%	.293	5.67	5.68	140	140
P.J. Walters	129.0	589	14.1%	9.2%	.298	5.72	5.62	141	139
Scott Copeland	141.3	658	11.6%	10.6%	.298	5.73	5.71	142	141

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Marcus Stroman	174.0	7.76	1.97	0.93	108	3.1	Carl Pavano
R.A. Dickey	194.0	7.05	2.74	1.16	99	2.7	Joe Niekro
Mark Buehrle	191.0	5.18	2.12	0.85	98	2.5	Claude Osteen
Drew Hutchison	151.3	8.51	2.86	1.19	95	1.8	Ervin Santana
Daniel Norris	132.3	9.73	4.08	1.36	92	1.3	Cliff Lee
Marco Estrada	142.0	8.24	2.41	1.58	90	1.2	Hideki Irabu
Liam Hendriks	167.0	6.20	1.89	1.24	86	0.9	Heath Totten
Aaron Sanchez	127.7	7.19	4.93	0.99	90	0.9	Joe Blanton
Jeff Francis	96.3	7.57	2.34	1.31	90	0.7	Buzz Oliver
Brett Cecil	64.7	10.43	3.76	0.83	115	0.7	Hector Mercado
Aaron Loup	74.7	7.23	2.89	0.84	111	0.6	Don Florence
Todd Redmond	71.3	7.57	3.16	0.88	103	0.3	Chad Paronto
Rob Rasmussen	61.3	8.22	4.11	0.88	101	0.2	Scott Wiggins
Colt Hynes	63.3	7.96	1.85	1.14	101	0.2	Erasmo Ramirez
Wilton Lopez	65.0	7.06	1.66	1.11	100	0.2	Gil Heredia
Jayson Aquino	100.7	5.99	3.57	1.25	79	0.0	Jim Crowell
Steve Delabar	61.7	10.79	4.96	1.17	95	0.0	Calvin Jones
Raul Valdes	75.7	7.85	2.62	1.55	82	0.0	Chris Nichting
Dustin McGowan	58.7	7.36	4.29	1.23	87	0.0	David Lee
Cory Burns	69.3	7.40	2.99	1.04	94	0.0	Scott Roehl
Frank Francisco	18.3	9.34	3.44	0.98	91	0.0	Ricky Bottalico
Juan Oramas	101.0	7.40	3.74	1.43	78	-0.1	Mike Bynum
Ryan Tepera	89.3	6.65	4.03	1.21	81	-0.1	Marty McLeary
John Stilson	44.7	7.25	3.62	1.01	91	-0.1	Steve LaRose
Bo Schultz	111.7	5.56	3.30	1.21	79	-0.2	Elliot Brown
Matt West	57.0	7.74	3.32	1.26	88	-0.2	Steve Ellsworth
Preston Guilmet	58.7	7.97	2.45	1.53	87	-0.3	Heath Bost
Chad Jenkins	77.7	5.10	1.97	1.39	82	-0.3	Tony Phillips
Scott Barnes	42.3	8.51	5.32	1.28	79	-0.3	Keith Glauber
Greg Infante	44.0	7.57	5.32	1.02	82	-0.4	Johnny Humphries
Greg Burke	60.3	8.36	3.73	1.34	84	-0.4	David Lee
Andrew Albers	140.7	5.57	2.37	1.47	75	-0.5	Scott Downs
Bobby Korecky	62.0	5.81	3.05	1.31	79	-0.6	Terry Mathews
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	109.7	6.24	3.04	1.56	74	-0.6	Jason Roach
Kyle Drabek	79.3	6.02	3.40	1.70	71	-0.7	Vic Martin
P.J. Walters	129.0	5.79	3.77	1.53	70	-1.0	Kip Bouknight
Scott Copeland	141.3	4.84	4.46	1.27	70	-1.1	Jim Hunter

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.