It’s possible Andrew McCutchen hasn’t been the hottest hitter in baseball, but at the very least, there haven’t been many much hotter. What makes the year notable, though, is that — as late as early May — McCutchen’s OPS was rattling around in the .500s. McCutchen didn’t go from good to red-hot. He went from bad to red-hot, and it’s worth examining the turnaround. Especially since I went to the trouble of examining his slump several weeks back. There was a time when people were legitimately worried about the Pirates’ best player. Now it’s all peaches.

It was on May 8 that I published an article titled “The Matter With Andrew McCutchen,” for JABO. Part of this article will now have to review that article, but understanding what was happening is critical for understanding what’s changed.

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On June 10, David Murphy went 2 for 4 in a 9-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field. The Indians outfielder faced right-hander Taijuan Walker in his first three plate appearances. His fourth time up, he faced left-hander Joe Beimel. Murphy, who is hitting .326/.367/.473 on the season, broke down his four at bats the following day.

LEAD-IN

“My general approach is the same for every pitcher. I take an up-the-middle approach. My swing plays into my favor when I pull the ball, but at the same time, a good hitter needs to be able to cover the entire plate. Walker has a good fastball. It’s a little bit sneaky, so if you’re not ready for the heater, you’re going to miss it. His command is what gets him in trouble, so at some point, you’re probably going to get a pitch to hit. But he pitched well against us at their place, about a week-and-a-half ago, and he did a pretty good job again last night. Read the rest of this entry »

There seems to be an urge to consider Jeff Francoeur‘s Tuesday pitching appearance symbolic. Francoeur’s an outfielder called on to pitch, and he went two innings in a blowout because the bullpen phone was off the hook, and at one point he had to reassure a coach on the field he still had something left in the tank. Superficially, it seems appropriate for this 2015 Phillies major-league train wreck. I’m not totally sold, though. For one thing, communication mishaps can happen to good teams. And for another, has this really been that much of a catastrophe? The Phillies suck, but the Phillies were expected to suck, with our preseason projections calling them the worst club in baseball. This was unavoidable. But, Cole Hamels has been healthy and good. Jonathan Papelbon has been healthy and good. Maikel Franco‘s been good. Down below, J.P. Crawford‘s been good. Aaron Nola’s been good. There are things going right, here, even while the team loses game after game. Winning wasn’t ever going to be the point. Being able to win again soon is the point.

Maybe I’m taking it too seriously, though. Maybe you’re not supposed to think about it too long. And besides, the state of the Phillies is a different conversation. It’s a bigger conversation. The conversation people want to have right now is more about Jeff Francoeur. How long have we wanted to see Jeff Francoeur pitch? He finally did it, and on a day that two other non-pitchers pitched, in a whole other game.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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If there was a seminal moment in the movement towards statistical analysis in Major League Baseball, it may very well have been the 2001 publication of Voros McCracken’s research on Defense Independent Pitching Stats, which he shortened to DIPS. In a series of articles over the course of a few years, McCracken demonstrated that Major League pitchers were more or less equal when it came to preventing hits on balls in play. While there were huge and sustained differences in walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed, the same did not hold true for the rate at which balls were converted in outs when a pitcher gave his defense a chance to get involved. Whether it was Pedro Martinez or Aaron Sele, roughly 30% of all balls in play went for hits, with minimal variation between pitchers.

McCracken’s idea was so antithetical to general wisdom about evaluating pitching that the subject became a primary source of research in the analytical community, but guys like Tom Tippett (now working for the Red Sox) and Keith Woolner (employed by the Indians) mostly ended up confirming McCracken’s original thesis. Despite a conclusion that seemed absurd, for the most part, pitchers really didn’t appear to have much control over whether balls in play went for hits or outs.

Tippett did manage to find a few types of pitchers who could somewhat break the mold, most notably knuckleballers, and further research showed that the data suggests more that pitchers have “little control” rather than “no control” over their hit rates on balls in play, but even with a more muted conclusion, the reality is that most big league pitchers end up in the range of a .280 to .320 Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP as it is usually called these days. There are differences in pitchers in that range, but by and large, that’s mostly where everyone fits.

Everyone, that is, except Chris Young.

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Step one for Mike Bolsinger was throwing a unique curve.

Only eight players in 2014 had a smaller velocity difference between their fastball and curve, and his curve is two ticks faster than the average curve, which led me to highlight him in my JABO piece on what makes great curveballs. That piece helped alert the Dodgers’ front office to his viability as a starter. They acquired him and then turned to him when depth became an issue. That gave him an opportunity.

Step two for Mike Bolsinger was adding a third pitch, of course.

Most interesting about this new pitch for Bolsinger might be that it’s not very different from the other two pitches he throws. He threw a cutter and a curve and now he’s throwing a … slider. Everything breaks towards his glove, and everything averages between 80 and 88 mph. Watch him pitch, and you’ll think he’s throwing the same pitch over and over again. Actually, he might be.

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The year of the prospect debut continues. Now that the Super Two deadline has come and gone, prospects are getting called up left and right. This past Sunday, we were treated to two debut events simultaneously, when both Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor joined their respective major league clubs. I covered Buxton yesterday, so today, I’ll take a look at Lindor, who ranked 14th on Kiley McDaniel’s preseason top-200 list. In case you were wondering, a Kyle Schwarber piece is also in the works.

Unlike Buxton’s call up, which came sooner than many had anticipated, Lindor’s wasn’t much of a surprise. The 21-year-old was hitting .281/.348/.399 in Triple-A this year, after spending the final third of last season at the same level. Throw in that he’s a plus defensive shortstop by all accounts, and it’s probably safe to say that Lindor was the best player left in the minors before his promotion — a distinction that seems to change hands on a weekly basis.

Offensively, Lindor’s calling card is his ability to make contact. The switch-hitter struck out in just 15% of his minor-league plate appearances this year, which matches up with his 14% clip from his prior three-and-a-half years as a pro. Lindor made contact on 89% of his swings in the strike zone in Triple-A — the 29th-highest rate of 126 qualified Triple-A hitters. This bodes well for Lindor’s immediate future, as players with this skill set tend to have relatively smooth transitions to the majors.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Miami at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Urena (26.1 IP, 111 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (74.2 IP, 66 xFIP-)
Central to the watchability not merely of sport but of any “text” designed for a viewing public is a sense of urgency. Not for nothing is cinema — and also every episode of 1980s action-adventure series MacGyver — littered with time bombs which need to be diffused seconds before reaching zero. Nor is urgency the province of the action genre, exclusively: even a film like My Dinner with Andre, which merely documents the conversation of two men seated in a restaurant, requires that conversation to create a sense of anticipation that can be satisfied only by continuing to watch.

On June 17, the major-league season doesn’t yet offer any metaphorical time bombs on the verge of metaphorical detonation. The Yankees, however, currently offer the closest thing to that: according to the playoff odds available here, the club features (as of this morning) a 50.2% chance* of qualifying for the divisional series — or, roughly as undecided as possible. Whatever happens tonight against the Marlins, therefore, is likely to move their odds further from that halfway point — either towards qualification for or elimination from postseason play.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Miami Television.

*One notes that Pittsburgh actually features odds even closer to 50% precisely. Other variables conspire to render it less compelling, however, according to the haphazard methodology utilized by the author.

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In the aftermath of yesterday’s shocking news that the FBI is investigating the St. Louis Cardinals for allegedly illegally accessing the Houston Astros’ computer network without authorization, many fans have begun to speculate as to what sort of penalty the Cardinals might face from Major League Baseball. MLB has already suggested that some form of punishment is forthcoming, issuing the following statement yesterday in response to the New York Times’ initial report:

Major League Baseball has been aware of and has fully cooperated with the federal investigation into the illegal breach of the Astros’ baseball operations database. Once the investigative process has been completed by federal law enforcement officials, we will evaluate the next steps and will make decisions promptly.

In particular, as others have noted, MLB’s reference to the incident as an “illegal breach” – as opposed to an “alleged” illegal breach – is especially noteworthy. MLB isn’t denying that employees of one of its teams may have illegally accessed the Astros’ computer network, nor is the league holding off judgment on the veracity of the reports until the federal investigation is complete. Instead, the league office is explicitly acknowledging that an illegal breach has occurred.

So the Cardinals are almost certainly facing some form of MLB-imposed punishment on top of any potential criminal charges the government may pursue. The question now is just what type of punishment MLB and Commissioner Manfred will seek to impose.

Given the unprecedented nature of the incident, initial speculation has ranged anywhere from a steep fine or the loss of draft picks to a potential postseason ban for the Cardinals. However, while Commissioner Manfred certainly has broad authority to govern the sport under his “best interests of baseball” powers, his authority – as NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has learned in recent years – is not absolute. Instead, MLB’s league constitution and collective bargaining agreement both impose some real constraints on the commissioner’s ability to punish the Cardinals. Read the rest of this entry »