Archive for June, 2015

Forgot About A.J. (Pollock)

Every year around this time, Major League Baseball starts their periodic All-Star Game voting updates. This year’s process has been flawed, to say the least. And like we always do about this time, we go through and pick the updates apart and see who still hasn’t got their due, to try to find the right recipe for the game. In doing so this year, the most glaring omission appears to be A.J. Pollock.

As of Thursday, A.J. Pollock was 11th in the majors in position player WAR. Let’s start there. If we look at the top 10, we can note that as of our last ballot update — which was Monday for the American League and Tuesday for the National League — that every one in the top 10 had at least 900,000 votes, and all but Joc Pederson had at least one million. Pollock, however, didn’t rate. He wasn’t one of the top-15 vote getters among NL outfielders, and 15th place Starling Marte had totaled 635,125 votes thus far. So Pollock is pretty far behind his fellow WAR leaders.

Read the rest of this entry »


Proposing an All-Star Overhaul

MLB’s 86th All-Star Game is just over a month away, and if you’ve been paying attention to the early voting, you know you can actually skip the event and just watch any random Kansas City Royals game instead; it will basically be the same thing. The Royals have turned out their voting bloc in droves, and unless the other franchises make a late move, the American League is going to try and bunt, steal, and defend their way to a 1-0 win in Cincinnati next month.

Just as the game itself is an annual tradition, so too are summer columns suggesting ways to “fix” or “improve” the Midsummer Classic. Even Jonah Keri, an absurd optimist who probably has Everything Is Awesome as the only song in his Spotify playlist, hates the current All-Star format:

Jonah Keri: I’m the most positive guy you’ll ever meet. Also, I love baseball. Adore it. Bathe myself in it.

But All-Star week — the Home Run Derby, the actual All-Star Game, and especially the four days with no real baseball — are freaking terrible. Uh-oh. Here comes Angry Jonah.

Why the hell does this game “count”? It’s a total farce. AL All-Star manager John Farrell has already said he won’t use any pitcher for more than one inning under any circumstances. How is that managing to win? Why should that count?

I’m with Jonah. All-Star Week sucks. The Futures Game is fun and worth doing, but the rest of it doesn’t interest me at all. And MLB’s attempt to make the game “count” is silly, and has done nothing to change the fact that this is still an exhibition game designed solely to make a lot of money for the league. But I also recognize that it’s good for MLB to market itself on a large stage, giving people a mid-season event to turn into, especially where the game’s best players are all assembled together. But the All-Star Game isn’t really a baseball game, and it doesn’t show off what is good about the sport.

So I’d like to make a proposal to overhaul the All-Star Week. This idea still allows MLB to gather its best players in one location — in fact, even expands the number of players who get to participate — while also giving us three actual baseball games, with actual baseball rosters, played under normal baseball conditions. The concept? Battle of the Ages.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/12/15

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends!

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to basically on-time baseball chat!

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Ordinarily by now I’d have a JABO post live but I haven’t heard back from the editors over there so there’s the reason for that

9:02
Comment From Maxamuz
I bet no one is here because you’re on time for once.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I actually had to give it a minute to let the queue get built up

9:02
Comment From Curtis
Fix the Mariner’s offense in 10 words or less…..

Read the rest of this entry »


Both Sides of the Phil Hughes Argument

So much of the analysis we do in baseball follows a pretty simple formula. We notice a player is getting different results, we look for explanations for the change, and then we speculate about whether the latter caused the former and if it will continue. Baseball includes so much random variation and you have to make decisions all the time about how much information is enough to rule out randomness as an answer. When it came to Phil Hughes in 2014, we didn’t have to worry too much about randomness as an explanation.

Hughes rattled off the best K/BB ratio of all time and was somewhere between very good and excellent for the first time in his career. While we can chalk lots of leaps up to random variation, Hughes seemed immune because he was such a drastically different pitcher in Minnesota compared to New York. It appeared to be quite clear why Hughes was so much better. He stopped issuing walks and pounded the strike zone. He bumped up his strikeouts as a result, and seemingly cut his home runs because he was in better counts and not in Yankee Stadium.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Friday, June 12, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Salazar (61.2 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Price (83.1 IP, 96 xFIP-)
The reader might regard it as a sort of minor injustice — or at least passing curiosity — that accomplished and conspicuously talented Detroit left-hander David Price receives merely an average rating here (i.e. NERD score of 5) by the author’s fallible methodology for determining the aesthetic value of, in this case, pitchers. Indeed, closer examination of the matter reveals that Price has actually recorded an expected FIP, swinging-strike rate, overall strike rate, and average fastball velocity all superior to the league-average starter’s mark — by a full standard deviation, in the three latter cases. Peculiar to Price, however, is the pace at which he works: on average, he’s recorded 25.7 seconds between pitches, the absolutely highest figure among qualifiers. To place that figure into context, consider the bag of Newman’s Own microwave popcorn currently residing in the author’s cabinet. On average, such a comestible requires roughly three minutes to prepare. Over such an interval, Price would throw almost exactly seven pitches. An average starter, meanwhile, would be halfway to throwing his ninth pitch. As for Mark Buehrle, given his average pace of 16.0 seconds, when that Newman’s Own popcorn is ready, he would just have received the ball back from the catcher after having delivered his 11th pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


Developments in CSN-Houston and MLB Blackout Lawsuits

Major League Baseball has seen its fair share of television-related litigation over the last few years. On Thursday, there were significant developments in two of these lawsuits.

First, the legal proceedings surrounding the failed CSN-Houston regional sports network took a new turn when the bankrupt station filed suit against Comcast, accusing the cable provider of a variety of misdeeds. If successful, the case could potentially allow the Houston Astros and the National Basketball Association’s Houston Rockets – the two primary owners of the defunct station – to recover hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

Meanwhile, the long-running Garber lawsuit challenging MLB’s television blackout and pay-per-view package policies took an interesting turn as well, when the parties in a companion case challenging the National Hockey League’s analogous TV policies reached a tentative settlement. Although this settlement does not directly affect the suit against MLB, the deal nevertheless has potential implications for the Garber case.

Read the rest of this entry »


What to Do When You Read a Silly Trade Rumor

You know who’s bad? The Phillies! They’re the kind of bad that knows they’re bad, so they’re looking to sell off some pieces. Everyone saw this coming. Even them. You know who’s been a different sort of bad, the kind of bad that still wants to be good? The Mariners! The Mariners refuse to give up; it makes sense they could be a buyer. This all brings us to the rumor that’s spiraling out of control at the moment on the web, courtesy of Bob Dutton:

The Mariners inquired into the availability of Philadelphia outfielder Ben Revere, as first reported by CSNPhilly.com, but talks quickly stalled when the Phillies asked for either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton in return.

You recognize that as a pretty silly trade rumor. So has everyone else on the Internet, which means it’s been another opportunity to make fun of the Phillies and Ruben Amaro. It’s not that Revere doesn’t have his uses — it’s that, yeah, you don’t pay $20 for a box of Ritz crackers, unless you do only have $20, and literally the only sustenance available is a box of Ritz crackers. This is a funny thing to read. But, how ought you move forward when you see a thing like this? I have a two-step suggestion.

Read the rest of this entry »


Bryce Harper’s Quiet Reversal

I think we’ve established by now that it’s the year of Bryce Harper. He’s the current major-league leader in Wins Above Replacement, and in case you’re not a real big fan of WAR, Harper’s also the leader in wRC+, and wOBA, and slugging percentage. This is the year we’ve been waiting for, and this is the year that makes it exponentially less silly to draw comparisons between Harper and Mike Trout. This healthy version of Harper has climbed within sight of his ceiling, and he’s still 22 years old. He’s younger than Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Noah Syndergaard. Harper-is-young facts are the oldest of hats, but then, they’re almost as old as Bryce Harper, who is young.

Harper’s been written about. We’ve all taken our turns, digging into his breakout that at this point appears undeniable. No one would dare pass up an opportunity to get into detail on baseball’s newest emerging superstar, so by now you should consider yourself mostly informed. Yet now I feel like there’s more that needs to be added. Since getting hot, Harper hasn’t really cooled off. He has, however, changed what he’s been doing. You could say he’s performed more like himself.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 692: The Year of Top Prospects

Ben and Sam banter about Bryce Harper and talk about the unusual number of top prospects making the majors early this season.


Some Possible Futures for Houston’s Vincent Velasquez

The prospects just keep on coming for the Houston Astros this year. First, it was Preston Tucker, who’s stepped in to produce a 110 wRC+ as the team’s left fielder. Then, along came Lance McCullers, who’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his first month in the majors. Another came on Monday,when Houston summoned Carlos Correa — arguably the best prospect left in the minors. Then, last night, the Astros graduated yet another impact prospect to the majors in Vincent Velasquez. The 23-year-old tossed five scoreless innings in his debut, striking out five while walking four.

Heading into the year, very few anticipated that Velasquez would make it to Houston in 2015, as he had zero experience above A-ball. He pitched reasonably well in High-A Lancaster last year, posting a 3.74 ERA and 3.96 FIP, but a groin injury limited him to just 51 innings of work. At year’s end, he reported to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted an unsightly 6.59 ERA before he was shut down with a lat strain. Velasquez looked as though he was still at least a year away from the show.

But something seemed to click for Velasquez between this year and last. After sitting out the first few weeks of the year recovering from his lat injury, the 23-year-old hit the ground running in Double-A Corpus Christi. In five starts, he pitched to a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 2.13 FIP on the strength of a 37% strikeout rate. Yes, that’s a small sample, but those numbers are about as good as it gets.

Read the rest of this entry »