In this age of Hitf/x and StatCast, batted-ball velocity is a hotter topic than ever. We only have had access to such data for a limited period of time, but the hypothesizing regarding the loudest contact-makers in the game’s history has been going on as long as the game itself. A similar debate regarding the quietest contact-makers has been, shall we say, a bit more quiet. Earlier this week we used contact scores to run down the most authoritative hitters of the modern era. Today, let’s flip the script and look at the bottom of the contact authority list.
Keith Law did not like this week’s trade (ESPN Insider article) that saw Touki Toussaint and Bronson Arroyo go from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Atlanta Braves. It’s not that Law didn’t like the trade from the perspective of one team or the other. It’s that he didn’t like the spirit of the trade, period: it was, indisputably, a swap of contracts instead of an even exchange of on-field talent.
What does a league look like where plenty, if not most, trades are motivated by their financial implications? Well, it’s not the end of the world: this is what the NBA has been about for years. The NBA combines baseball’s almost entirely guaranteed salaries with a soft cap, like baseball, that, unlike baseball, is restrictive enough that even mid-market teams can unwittingly bump up against it. “Expiring” contracts — or, inefficient deals with less than a year remaining on them — have been a long-coveted NBA asset: salary albatrosses are willingly taken on precisely because they will end quickly enough for the team to have an even more valuable asset — space and flexibility underneath the cap — in time for the offseason free-agent market.
Comment From Miketron Everything is coming up Milhouse!
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Eno Sarris: COMING IN HOT
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Comment From Josh G Do you expect Gomez to eventually start stealing bases again, or will he take it easy given his hip issue?
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Eno Sarris: No way he doesn’t get to 15 IMO
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Comment From George is Curious Everyone seems to be expecting the A’s to be big time sellers, but I don’t see it that way. They’re 8-2 in the past 10, and have closed the gap to 9 games. If any team knows what it’s like to make crazy runs and make the playoffs, it’s the A’s, so why are people so convinced that Zobrist/Clippard/etc. will be dealt in the near future?
Over the weekend, the Diamondbacks made a pretty controversial trade, selling Touki Toussaint to the Braves in exchange for $10 million in salary relief. I wrote up my thoughts on the deal on Monday, noting that while it’s certainly possible that the Diamondbacks have more information about Toussaint than other teams, it still seems like they simply misread the market value of a prospect in making this deal.
If you didn’t think that’s what happened a few days ago, you can be sure of it now, because in Ken Rosenthal’s latest column, Stewart says some things that, for a baseball executive to say publicly in 2015, are absolutely remarkable. And should scare the crap out of Diamondback fans.
Per Rosenthal’s column, here’s the entire text of what Stewart said in regards to trading Toussaint.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
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Most Highly Rated Game New York AL at Houston | 20:10 ET Warren (77.0 IP, 111 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (107.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
A flawed algorithm constructed by the author indicates that this game is today’s most compelling one for much the same reason that other recent games have been designated as those other days’ most compelling ones — namely, because of how it features the Houston Astros. As a club, Houston possesses the fourth-highest odds of qualifying for the divisional series among all major-league clubs — this, despite also possessing the league’s youngest collection of batters. Famously, American boxer Muhammad Ali announced at a press conference that he was young, handsome, fast, pretty, and couldn’t possibly be beat. At least one — but probably also fewer than all — of those descriptive elements apply to the current incarnation of the Astros.
Used to be, people would argue about whether Stephen Strasburg was really an ace. There was no right or wrong answer, since there is no consensus definition of an ace starting pitcher, but aside from that, where Strasburg was concerned, there was disagreement. Some people thought he was amazing; some people thought he was a letdown. Some people could squint and see both. That all concerns past Stephen Strasburg. There was no disagreement over 2015 Stephen Strasburg. That version sucked, and by some measures he was one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. It wasn’t like him, and after a start in late May, Strasburg hit the DL. He didn’t feel great. He also needed to work on his mechanics. The DL stint was a chance to work on both.
And a few days ago, Strasburg came off the DL and threw 94 pitches against the Braves. Many of them were pretty good pitches, and while this was a Braves lineup without Freddie Freeman in the middle of it, I’d still say it wasn’t easy for Strasburg to throw his five shutout innings. That was still a major-league opponent, so the outing was positive from start to finish. What sorts of things was Strasburg up to? We can make this easy, with just a few pictures. In some ways, Strasburg was his classic self. In some ways, he was completely different.
You remember how the last year went, and ended. It was devastating — not only because the Royals came so close, but because no one could be sure when the Royals would have another opportunity. The following season didn’t appear so bright; while the team could survive losing, say, Nori Aoki and Billy Butler, it would be tougher to lose James Shields. The guy the Royals signed to replace Shields was Edinson Volquez, which is to say the Royals didn’t really get around to replacing Shields at all. Preseason opinions of the team were mixed, but everyone agreed it would be a struggle to get back to the playoffs.
Now, almost halfway through, the Royals have the best record in the American League. Practically their entire lineup is in position to be voted into the All-Star Game, and only a few of those selections would be terrible ones. The team’s done well to shake off last year’s defeat, and with their eyes set ahead, the future will soon bring the exhibition, and the trade deadline. Like every team, the Royals could stand to be better. Like every team, the Royals could use another one or two arms. Without question, the starting rotation is far from a strength. But as the Royals gauge the market, it’s worth asking — how bad is their need for another starter, really?
Last year’s Rays were, objectively, a disappointment. Forecast to do pretty well, the team ultimately lost more games than it won, finishing fourth in a surprising division. Beneath the surface numbers, though, there was something a little more positive — by BaseRuns, the Rays should’ve gone 83-79. Over the course of the year, the Rays underachieved what they arguably deserved, so the team was more competitive than it looked. But hey, 2014 was 2014. Those Rays traded David Price. They traded Ben Zobrist. They lost Joe Maddon. Early this year, the Rays lost Alex Cobb. They’ve been without Drew Smyly. They’ve been without Desmond Jennings. Last year, the Rays were borderline competitive, and they moved forward without the same talent.
And now they’re 41-32. They’re leading the East by a couple games, and the only bad team in that division has been the Red Sox. BaseRuns puts the Rays closer to 39-34, but that’s not a meaningful difference, the take-home message being, the Rays are fine. They’ve survived a massive talent loss, and if anything, now they’re playing better. Per usual, the Rays have had to overcome a number of obstacles in order to remain a relevant team. What, precisely, has taken place in Tampa Bay?
Since Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart took over baseball operations for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, their moves have come under considerable scrutiny. Questions have been raised about the Diamondbacks plan, but not with as much regard to its execution. The questions surrounding the Diamondbacks’ moves have been confusing enough that some wondered if the Diamondbacks had a plan in mind at all. The club looked to be attempting a quick rebuilding process. How they plan to achieve that goal is finally becoming a little more clear.
When the Cubs and Astros took bad teams and completely deconstructed their rosters, choosing to lose for a while and re-stock the organizations, their plans were easy to see. After a full offseason, multiple in-season trades, and the recent major-league draft, the Diamondbacks’ plan, or at least their goal, has come into focus. The Diamondbacks are not interested in a long, drawn out rebuilding process. Their main interests look to be cutting salary and adding players who are ready to contribute now or will be ready to contribute in the near future. They might not be ready to win now, but they appear to be attempting a swift rebuild to make the team competitive.
As dependably as Earth orbits the sun, so too does USA Baseball stack its Collegiate National Team with premium talents that later find themselves atop teams’ draft boards. Each summer, Team USA plays a few tune-up games against various teams from the summer collegiate Coastal Plain League before embarking on a multi-week schedule competing against Chinese Taipei, Cuba and other international squads. For major-league clubs, this summer tour and the Cape Cod League are the top destinations to scout the best college talent available in next year’s draft.
I’m going to compile a ranking of the top prospects on Team USA once its season is over, but having seen the first three games and the preceding batting practices/infields, I have enough notes to share in advance of a more comprehensive and penultimate post. Let’s do three hitters, three pitchers and a bonus round of 2017 guys. All of these players appeared in Kiley’s 2016/2017 draft rankings.
Corey Ray, CF, Louisville
Ray has been the most impressive position player over Team USA’s first three days, and if I was forced to rank all these guys now, he would slot in as my top hitting prospect and No. 2 overall behind Georgia RHP Robert Tyler. The quick-twitch center fielder has taken loud batting practices with a fluid, lefthanded stroke that produces above-average raw power and has shown a deliberate approach in games, using plus speed to set the Team USA single-game steals record with five in the first contest against the Holly Springs Salamanders of the CPL. He’s still developing instincts for his position, but his range, solid average arm and controlled aggression fit the center-field profile.
