2016 AL Wild Card Live Blog

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Bork: Hello, friends!

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to October 4 American League Wild Card One-Game Playoff Live Blog

Jeff Sullivan: I will be joined at some point by both Eric and Carson! And all of you and your blessed hearts

Purevol: Woot

Zack: Also, hello enemies.

Sirras: At this point, do you take the Cubs or the field for the WS champs?

Jeff Sullivan: I take the field. Every single team in the playoffs is pretty damn good. It’s true every year and it’s true in this year

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if that poll is going to show up in the chat transcript, but we’ll see who the crowd thinks is likely to take this one and advance

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up, everyone? I’m taking Stroman tonight, easily the best Stro since Stromile Swift.

Jeff Sullivan: Early favorite: Jays, 3:1

Jeff Sullivan: Hello Eric!

Eric A Longenhagen: Buen dia, Jeff.

Jeff Sullivan: This latest poll also indicates Jays fans outnumber Orioles fans in here about 3:1

Jeff Sullivan: Well that was a weird delay for us but we are underway and the Orioles are already losing in one sense

Jeff Sullivan: that being the sense in which they have fewer outs remaining to give, by one

Sirras: HOORAY LIVEBLOG! HOORAY FANGRAPHS! HOORAY PLAYOFFS!

AJ: Thoughts on stroman starting this the game for the Jays? Surprised?

Jeff Sullivan: Not very surprised. Even if you believe in the Orioles’ huge platoon splits, the higher-leverage plate appearances are mostly going to come later

Noah: On the podcast, Dave told Carson that even if the cubs get swept, losing 15-0 in every game, and another team went undefeated, winning every game 10-0, “the cubs would still be better.” Would it ever be possible for the cubs to lose by enough, and another team to be dominant enough, that you would reconsider who the best team was?

Jeff Sullivan: The best team in the regular season is already set. It’s permanent. It can’t be undone. The playoffs are just different for everybody! The Cubs might end up not the best playoff team though. That’s the fun part

dwayne: Battle to the death, only one Bird will survive.

Jeff Sullivan: classic birds

Ricky: So which AL team that missed out on the playoffs is best equipped to be playing in this game next year?

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees probably

weezy: Toronto’s radio announcers mentioned the home plate umpire’s home winning % for games he is behind the plate this season (home team is 22-9)…. where does this rank for dumb announcer analysis? I could be convinced that there’s a home-field umpiring advantage…

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a bad stat, but I will give it this: I have never heard that stat before. So it’s an interesting and fresh bad stat

Jeff Sullivan: We’re through half of one inning! We haven’t talked about the game yet! No score, Jays coming up, easy first for Stroman

Roger: I would take Stroman tonight too, but isn’t this game going to be largely determined by the pens? Seems like the Os have the advantage there.

Jeff Sullivan: If the Jays establish, say, a two or three-run lead going into the sixth, all the Zach Brittons in the world won’t make this easy for the Orioles

Ryan: While we’ve got a commercial break here, what do you predict for Tim Tebow in the Arizona Fall League?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Not really a precedent for a 29-year old who hasn’t played baseball in nearly a decade trying to hit in a league where multiple arms were touching 101 last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I expect the press boxes to be more crowded, I suppose.

CarrotJuice: Jeff, Eric, do you have any routing interest in tonights game?

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t speak for Eric, but I have a very slight rooting interest in the Blue Jays here. I like teams with loud venues

Jeff Sullivan: And I just feel bad for Canada’s hockey, man

JRWriter: Chances of Tillman imploding by the 3rd inning?

Jeff Sullivan: Would be greater if Donaldson and Bautista weren’t so banged up

Eric A Longenhagen: I have soft spots for guys on both squads, no preference.

Jeff Sullivan: Tillman’s first pitch is 88. His velocity has been down since his DL stint

Jeff Sullivan: Second pitch 87…

Jeff Sullivan: There’s a 91. That’s better

Cistulli’s_Ghost: Hello Mr. Sullivan. As we have noted on this website, www.fangraphs.com, these wild card games seem to be exciting as a result of what we could consider their unpredictability. That is to say that they may be, in the opinion of the author, somewhat random, or even lucky. Trying to predict something that is admittedly, random, may be best described as a futile enterprise. Or perhaps even, a pointless endeavor. However, since we are a baseball website, I feel some obligation, yes, I do feel some obligation to ask you: who do you think will win tonight?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m picking the Orioles to win this to be contrarian. I also won’t be shocked if the Jays win by twelve

ftperks: if the mariners were better and playing in this game, would you have considered traveling to Toronto for it?

Jeff Sullivan: No!

ftperks: all hands on deck, pitching-wise tonight? Maybe except the next 2 starters?

Jeff Sullivan: Should be, absolutely, although Gibbons is more likely to ride his starter too long

Bartolo Colon : If the highest leverage situation in the game happens in the bottom of the 6th, would you consider pitching Britton 3 innings?

Jeff Sullivan: I have enough faith in Brach/Givens/O’Day that hopefully it wouldn’t need to come to that. It’s not just about Britton back there

Eric A Longenhagen: I had about 4.1 down the line for Donaldson there, but with a serious jailbreak. Toss it out.

Jeff Sullivan: From this angle it looks like every Chris Tillman curveball is going to fly out the top of the TV screen

Jeff Sullivan: Kind of like that fastball…

Jeff Sullivan: Encarnacion pops out. Both innings end with pop-outs. To the second we go! Nothing happening yet.

Alex: Why do the Dodgers have better World Series odds than the Cubs?

Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw and Hill starting most of the games

Jake: you’d put the yankees’ playoff odds over the astros next year?

John: If you were MLB commissioner, and were forced to replace baseballs with a ball from any other sport (volleyball, soccer ball, cricket ball, etc.), which would you choose and why?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Astros are more likely to win their division and miss this game

Eric A Longenhagen: Eggs

Zack: Did anyone take a look at potential differences after one season at Rogers Centre with a dirt infield? Fewer GB hits or anything like that?

Jeff Sullivan: That’ll be an offseason project. Or an off-day-in-the-playoffs project

Sliotar: Geddy Lee sitting behind home plate, keeping score is still awesome on many levels. Who would be the corresponding celebrity scorekeeper if the game were in Baltimore?

Eric A Longenhagen: John Waters with a scorebook made of human skin

S: Who is better defensively, Machado, Donaldson, or Arenado?

Jeff Sullivan: Gotta think Arenado is the best of them

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

Jeff Sullivan: Just now remembering Matt Wieters Facts. whoops

Off Topic.: I don’t think I like Statcast’s “Barrel” stat, somehow a guy like Joey Votto is behind guys (on a per PA basis) like Juan Uribe, Tyler Austin, Nick Castellanos, Rickie Weeks Jr, Chad Pinder, Robinson, Chirinos, etc. Is a guy like Votto just not meeting the EVelocity minimum, or what? And how much correlation between that stat and actual production do you expect?

Jeff Sullivan: Votto might not get enough loft. He’s a line-drive guy, not a homer guy. The stat probably went through some strong vetting with some smart people, and it’s strongly correlated with production, but it’s certainly not perfect. No bucketing measure is perfect

Jeff Sullivan: Good catch against the foul wall there by Carrera. OK!

Jeff Sullivan: Playoff game currently featuring Ezequiel Carrera and Michael Bourn

Eric A Longenhagen: What are ex-Phillies outfielders?

Jeff Sullivan: Davis whiffs. Stroman through two!

Jeff Sullivan: Perfect breaking ball to finish him off.

The Hamburglar: I can totally see the Orioles being this year’s Royals

Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I can see any and every single team alive being this year’s Royals. I mean I guess the Cubs wouldn’t count but every team has some elite-level strength

Nick in ATL: Better mgr for one game is Buck by a good margin?

Jeff Sullivan: Not sure it gets better than Buck

Continents of Death: Why is Cistulli not here? A lot of us came here specifically to be underwhelmed

Jeff Sullivan: He warned me that he wouldn’t be available for the start. This is presumably because he realized this is a major-league baseball game and his interest has waned

jtperks: If its Blue Jays x Rangers, would there almost certainly be some intent to hit somebody with a baseball?

Jeff Sullivan: Not unless there’s something new, I think. Players *want* vengeance for shit but they generally don’t want to act on those feelings when the stakes are so high

Eric A Longenhagen: Carson is rescuing a hutch made of reclaimed driftwood

Jeff Sullivan: TBS showing the extremely unhelpful behind-the-umpire camera angle

Jeff Sullivan: I can confirm that a pitch was thrown

Jeff Sullivan: Bautista fouls it off with the 3-and-0 green light

Carson Cistulli: This is like a maze.

Jeff Sullivan: 3-and-1 does it! Bautista goes yard!

Carson Cistulli: Also, hello.

ChatzMcGee: Jose good.

Tom: Blamo!

Random Semantics: I can confirm that a pitch was blasted

Scott Stapp: Travis’ foul ball in his first PA broke a portion of the thin video board that circles the stadium between the 2nd and 3rd tiers. It’s still broken.

Carson Cistulli: Is anyone else — streaming this game, for example — over a minute behind?

Jeff Sullivan: Possibly/probably. I don’t know how current my stream is

Carson Cistulli: Well, to give you an idea, I’ve just seen Jose Bautista hit a home run.

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’s done it twice?

jtperks: Are you all for shifts, or do you support Girardi’s opinion that they should be illegal

Jeff Sullivan: I cannot fathom a reason why they should be made illegal

Jeff Sullivan: Seemingly tricky catch by Bourn over in the RF corner. Probably not tricky, but tricky on camera, because cameras lie to us

Carson Cistulli: It does seem, Jeff, as though a lot of MLB’s rule-making is expressly designed to protect clubs from their own poor decision-making.

anonymous: How do we explain that Shifts are more popular than ever, but league-wide BABIP was so high this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Had Tulo’s flyball timed at 5.03 in the air. That’s about an average flyball time, Bourn went a ways to get to it. He looked fine in CF with the Dbacks here before the trade, though not close to what he was in his prime.

Carson Cistulli: I don’t know the full answer to that question, anonymous. I’ll say this, though: in a recent piece by (I think) August Fagerstrom, he cited leaguewide BABIPs from the past and there were some very low, very surprising figure, even from the past 30 or 40 years.

John: What is the highest launch angle of a HR in the statcast era?

CamdenWarehouse: Carson, I can’t tell from the podcasts. Are you and Dayn actually friends?

Jeff Sullivan: 49.7 degrees, J.D. Martinez, 5/15/2015

Carson Cistulli: It’s like asking whether my wife and I love each other: no.

Pinstripe Wizard: Protecting people from poor decisions is the basis of most of this country’s laws in general, much less baseball.

Neil: These strike calls by the ump are fantastic!

anonymous: Pay for cable like an American, you hipsters.

Jeff Sullivan: Have you seen what’s on cable

Carson Cistulli: Jeff, to Neil’s point, what’s your real-time strike-zone monitor of choice?

Eric A Longenhagen: 4.45 down the line from Schoop

jon: Jeff,

jon: jeff,

jon: Jeff,

Jeff Sullivan: Girlfriend came home and while I wasn’t paying attention the Orioles made two outs

Jeff Sullivan: God bless the fast-working pitchers

Jeff Sullivan: Carson! Gameday.

Carson Cistulli: Thank you, Sullivan.

Uncle Jimbo: A shift *should* be easier to hit against because the infielders are not spread out.

Jeff Sullivan: Stroman is through three, and the box score says he’s been perfect. He would probably agree with the assessment

Jeff Sullivan: Stroman’s fastball is averaging 93. Tillman’s fastball is averaging 90

Carson Cistulli: In theory, Uncle Jimbo, yes. But I think what’s less easy is contradicting years of hitting tendencies. Like, I think Sullivan wrote a piece about players attempting to bunt against the shift. Generally, it hasn’t gone well, is what I remember.

Jeff Sullivan: Almost to a man, players say that bunting is extraordinarily difficult

Jeff Sullivan: Especially with pitches being tougher than ever before

Zack: I feel like more guys directly trying to attack the shift (bunting against it, for example) would increase the BABIP. But it doesn’t feel like there’s been way more of them.

Jeff Sullivan: I miss that Ben Lindbergh column

Stewie: Who are pitchers who come to mind as being as big as Tillman while still being relative soft-tossers?

Jeff Sullivan: CHRIS YOUNG

Jeff Sullivan: Doug Fister

Carson Cistulli: I think Chris Young is probably the logical conclusion of that profile. Mark Hendrickson was also the same sort of thing.

Carson Cistulli: Although, perceived velocity is probably a different question.

Jeff Sullivan: Kevin Pillar with another easy out in an at-bat where he looked like he’s supposed to be a better hitter than he is

jtperks: At what MPH should I be impressed, homer wise? 110mph?

Carson Cistulli: I benefit less from wealth-management commercials than I would from a hypothetical poverty-management commerical.

Jeff Sullivan: 105 is pretty good. 110 is outstanding

Doe: Carson: How futile and meaningless do you think a living Emil Cioran would find this game, and to an end, all of sport?

Carson Cistulli: In a charitable mood, he would tolerate it as a diversion from the horrors.

Carson Cistulli: He was rarely in a charitable mood, however.

Jeff Sullivan: I am so glad you are here

Jt: Pitching to the score/shutdown innings are probably one of the dumbest theories ever right? Professional athletes who have done nothing but play baseball their whole lives relaxing over a 1 run lead?

Carson Cistulli: By the way, if anyone cares, here’s a note about Jeff: he wrote me an email the other day JUST TO EFFING SAY THANKS for a good 2016 season. Which is a bullshit move for a talented, handsome person to make.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re dumb theories. Everyone on a team can “feel” a shutdown inning and there are definitely pitchers who pitch differently depending on the score

Jeff Sullivan: I like you, Carson, because you improve my life by some certain degree

Carson Cistulli: Ugh.

Carson Cistulli: Stop.

Continents of Death: Does your girlfriend watch baseball at all, Jeff?

Jeff Sullivan: She has watched baseball before, certainly

Adam: Have the words “bloop”, “squib”, or “nubber” ever been uttered outside the context of baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: A squib is a person with magical parentage who can’t do magic.

Jeff Sullivan: But I would not often use the active verb

Continents of Death: Should they get Liriano up after this inning?

Carson Cistulli: I think, per Eno Sarris’s post from earlier today, it would make sense to save him for Texas.

Carson Cistulli: They’ve almost gone deep enough just to use actual, normal relievers.

Jeff Sullivan: I could see Liriano getting an AB or two later on but nothing much more

Mitchell: Plus, Stroman looks excellent

Carson Cistulli: Yes!

jon: Jeff, I posted this on the Instagraphs thread but I wanted to deliver it here. The Reds pitching vs CHC: 91 BB 127 K 40 HR in 170 IP. Back of the envelope FIP above 6 and negative 3 war.

Jeff Sullivan: Position players pitching!

Jeff Sullivan: Basically

John: Jeff, how did you answer that statcast question so quickly? Is there some giant dataset/database of events that you’re able to query?

Jeff Sullivan: I saw the question before I submitted it to the chat!

dgrussel: what happened to 94mph Tillman from earlier this season?

Jeff Sullivan: Shoulder inflammation

ShinyThing: Has there been a player’s view on the psychological benefits of a big lead?

Jeff Sullivan: Adam Jones with a good two-strike drive the other way. O’s on the board, in the non-run sort of way

Eric A Longenhagen: I dislike comps, but for what it’s worth I had a scout comp Braves prospect Ronald Acuna to Adam Jones last week.

Carson Cistulli: I remember something to this effect, ShinyTing. Most pitchers seemed to suggest that it was difficult, essentially, to “switch” to different mode. For them, as soon as they stop attacking, things become difficult.

The Hamburglar: Thats a pretty asshole move by Jeff

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like Laurila did a post about that?

Carson Cistulli: Yes. That sounds right.

Carson Cistulli: Voila: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-do-pitchers-pitch-to-the-score/

Jeff Sullivan: Fantastic

Carson Cistulli: And, yes, The Hamburglar. Yes it was.

ShinyThing: Pillar has the look of a hitter, just not the actual skills

Jeff Sullivan: If he just never swung…

Bernie: Would you pull Tillman now?

Carson Cistulli: At the first sign of trouble, yes.

Carson Cistulli: He’s pitched three decent innings. There’s a full bullpen — including a version of Britton who could conceivably pitch three innigns.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love the idea of Tillman going up against that 2-3-4 next inning

Carson Cistulli: *innings

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with Carson and Jeff. Tillman has already been throwing a lot of first pitch breaking balls. Middle of TOR order has seen that trick and the fastball isn’t going to play in the zone.

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much no manager would remove Tillman at this juncture, but I would support it

Jeff Sullivan: Machado with the 3-and-0 swing now. OK!

Jeff Sullivan: As with Bautista, this particular swing accomplished nothing, but a 3-and-1 count

Jeff Sullivan: The 3-and-1 swing nearly accomplished a double!

Carson Cistulli: Not to mention, they have six RHBs in a row, Jeff. Put in Darren O’Day?

Jeff Sullivan: Instead it accomplished a Kevin Pillar rugburn

Jeff Sullivan: I would be willing to try O’Day in this inning

Carson Cistulli: Or Givens. Or Hunter. Or another righty.

Jeff Sullivan: Trumbo! Dinger!

Jeff Sullivan: Just like that it is 2-1 birds!

Jeff Sullivan: *Orange birds

Eric A Longenhagen: First pitch fastball to the Major League home run leader with a base open? Nyet.

Jeff Sullivan: Not even a terrible pitch location — just perhaps a lousy pitch choice

Carson Cistulli: Just saw the catch by Pillar, by the way. Really excellent. That Trumbo homer could have been worse for the Jays.

Stewie: Wow that Rogers Centre atmosphere just died down about 11 notches.

Carson Cistulli: That’s only 8 notches in America, though.

Josh: TRUMBONER!!!!!!!

Spring blake: Trumbo Jumbo!

Tucker: Action! So much action!

Mike Hunter Pence: Does your girlfriend share your passion for volcanoes, Jeff? And, if not: why do you tolerate this?

Jeff Sullivan: For my birthday last year she rented out a house on a volcano, and made both a volcano cake and a volcano pinata

Jeff Sullivan: Try to beat that

Mattingly’s Sideburns: This game is going to end 1-0. Tomorrow’s game will be 9-8.

Jeff Sullivan: NOW WHO’S AN IDIOT

Carson Cistulli: Jeff, can you make some wild speculations about the average wOBA on the pitch type/location of Trumbo’s HR?

Manny: Seems like not a bad pitch, just a good Trumbo

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what would be average but certain righties love the pitch down and in. Trumbo is a fastball masher and he saw it and ripped it

dgrussel: Isn’t Adam Jones so unique in how he’s been able to do what he does despite his peripherals that you wouldnt want to be compared to me?

Jeff Sullivan: Jones is like the older Rougned Odor. It’s bizarre but it doesn’t not work

Jeff Sullivan: Bourn with another long-distance catch. Because why *wouldn’t* he make a difference in the biggest game of the season?

Carson Cistulli: With regard to Jones, there really are some guys who can survive without basically any control of the strike zone. You need a high BABIP or ISO or both. Jones has the latter, plus base-running value.

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the easiest skillset to mimic, but it’s fun when it works

Adam: Machado has permanent “can you believe this asshole?” Face

Jeff Sullivan: Yasmani Grandal has permanent “can you believe this, asshole?” face

Jeff Sullivan: Encarnacion whiffs right through a hanging curveball in the middle of the zone

Jeff Sullivan: Or slider. Whatever. Point is, bad

Nodog: All that talk about lefties and it’s the righty, the guy Stroman should be the toughest on, that does the damage. Baseball, amirite?

Jeff Sullivan: There are so many kinds of splits 🙁

Carson Cistulli: Here’s an approximate list of Adam Jones comparables from this decade: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=45438&players=0.

Jeff Sullivan: Cistulli doing some WORK

Carson Cistulli: Walk rate less than 7%, strikeout rate greater than 15%. ISO greater than .150.

wrex: are you getting tired of being the baseball and volcano guy Jeff? Are you ever just like, please, for the love of God, and we talk about something other than baseball and volcanos?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s important to be able to alternate between them

Go UBears: Carson, why haven’t you ever come to speak at Bowdoin College?

Carson Cistulli: I assume because Bowdoin has academic standards.

jtperks: Do the O’s make the wild-card w/o Trumbo? Do the M’s make it with him?

Jeff Sullivan: Depends who the O’s would’ve had instead, but if the M’s had Trumbo instead of Lind/Lee, yeah, that would’ve been super for them

Josh: For the love of god get the bullpen up Buck

Carson Cistulli: I agree with this sentiment. They really only need to get through the 7th innings.

Carson Cistulli: *inning.

Cam: I love wildcard baseball. It’s not the league I support, and no preference for either team. But this whole sprint or go home thing rocks.

Jeff Sullivan: One-game playoffs are seriously the best

Sterling Archer : how does this jag-off with the toy parrot afford 2nd row right behind home plate seats?

Jeff Sullivan: How is Marlins Man Marlins Man?

Phil: Cistulli must have the most dedicated intern.

Carson Cistulli: I *am* the intern.

Vic Romano: The timebomb that is Tillman is tick-tick-ticking away.

Eric A Longenhagen: Marlins Man was bitten by a radioactive marlin and became insanely rich.

wrex: Do you think Stroman’s marked difference between peripherals and results may have something to do with his height?

Jeff Sullivan: This, I do not think

Jeff Sullivan: Martin rolls over on a pitch down the middle and it’s 2-1 Orioles through 4

Pinstripe Wizard: Grandal looks like a tool but he’s wildly underrated nationally IMO.

Jeff Sullivan: Agreed. Looking forward to being able to write this at some point for some reason in the coming few weeks

a eskpert: More walks in 2017: Joey Votto or Joey Bats?

Jeff Sullivan: Forever Votto

Jonnyzuck : Why is Tony La Russa still employed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rumors on the backfields yesterday were that he was being “reassigned”

jon: Overlooked great irony in this playoff’s seeding: the most fulcrum piece threatening this Cubs team in its pennant quest is Rich Hill

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, nobody wants the Dbacks job. Kendrick/Hall might make a move when they find someone willing and hold La Russa until then.

ChatzMcGee: Him much more valuable would Trumbo’s 47 dinger season have been two years ago? Only marginally?

Jeff Sullivan: +4 runs, apparently

Jeff Sullivan: Feels too small but there you go

Clyde Klutz: Which is a better/more interesting WC game? One where neither team as an ace (AL) or 2 aces going at it (NL)?

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s more interesting when neither team has an ace, because then you have to rely a little more on strategy

Jeff Sullivan: But for entertainment purposes people love No. 1s

Stewie: Marlins Man made big bucks off his law firm which specializes in corporate law. Made something like $300MM off a case and decided to become Marlins Man.

Jeff Sullivan: This is weirdly infuriating

Eric A Longenhagen: Schoop: 4.52

Jeff Sullivan: Fantaaaaaaaaaaastic play by Tulowitzki in the hole!

denimchicken: as a fan of a wild card team, the one game playoff sucks

Jeff Sullivan: The odds of winning aren’t meaningfully different than they would be in a series, so at least there’s that

Carson Cistulli: Just saw the Tulo play. Bien joué, that guy.

Mattingly’s Sideburns: Would you rather fight 1 Edwin sized parrot or 100 Parrot sized Edwins?

Jeff Sullivan: Always the 100

Josh: Givens/Brach/Britton get ‘er done

Jeff Sullivan: And you haven’t even mentioned O’Day!

Jack: Do you think that the one-game playoff is going to cause the managers to be more aggressive with pinch hitting or no?

Carson Cistulli: It probably should. It makes sense to exercise every possible advantage. It remains to be seen if it will, naturally.

sean: michael bourn making an impact in a playoff game in 2016 is truly shocking

Mike: Is good pitching more important than good hitting in the postseason? I remember some BPro article from a million years ago looked at it and was like “Yeah, pretty much”, but has anyone studied this more recently?

Jeff Sullivan: I believe that good pitchers have a slight advantage over good hitters in the playoffs, and all of the time, so take that for what it’s worth. The Red Sox are still terrifying though

Great play!!

Jeff Sullivan: Hardy whiffs! Top of the fifth is over, still 2-1. Stroman’s thrown 72 pitches with six whiffs and no walks

Carson Cistulli: You let him face Jones, Sullivan, but then go to a lefty for Kim?

Jeff Sullivan: I’d just go to a reliever right away. More righties to come and Stroman has gone through a very clean 18 hitters.

Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing, however, that GIbbons will leave Stroman in

arnold: Derek Falvey’s first order of business as Twins’ Chief Baseball Human should be to (fill in the blank) ?

Jeff Sullivan: Find a general manager

Manny: Who rocks a bigger chaw stash than Davis?

Phil: Leave it to the O’s to make something of late-career Michael Bourn.

Jeff Sullivan: Remember Jimmy Paredes

Jeff Sullivan: Tulowitzki very displeased with himself for that fly out

Jeff Sullivan: Bat flip out of frustration. I wonder where that sits among the unwritten rules

Dibbles: Where would you rank Orioles bullpen in entire MLB?

Jeff Sullivan: I think…I think second?

Carson Cistulli: To arnold above: Falvey should aggressively promote OF Zack Granite. Buxton, Kepler, and Granite!

Jeff Sullivan: It’s really really close at the top. Could see them anywhere from best to fourth

Carson Cistulli: I’m behind. Is Ezequiel Carrera batting yet? And is Tillman still in?

Jeff Sullivan: Bourn can’t make the catch!

Jeff Sullivan: Kevin Pillar with a double on a stupid pitch to swing at in the first place!

Jeff Sullivan: What a game!

Phil: YOU HAVE TO SCORE ON THAT, SAUNDERS. -1 BsR.

A Bloo Bloo Jays: how did saunders not score

Vic Romano: Not sure why the run didn’t score there….

The Hamburglar: Why the hell did Saunders not score?

fresh basil: How is this not tied?

Dan: HOW DO YOU NOT SCORE THERE

Carson Cistulli: There are some questions among the readership as to why Saunders didn’t plate himself.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta go after Carrera here, right? No fooling around with the top of the order looming.

Carson Cistulli: Carrera *is* one of only two LHBs in whole lineup, however.

Jeff Sullivan:

Jeff Sullivan: Carrera slashes a single to tie it up. Corners, 2-2

Jeff Sullivan: Terrible pitch to Carrera there

Jeff Sullivan: And now the Jays lineup turns over. Tillman needs to leave

Jeff Sullivan: …and he’s going to.

Jeff Sullivan: Givens coming in

Carson Cistulli: That Carrera PA was the highest leverage one of the game. Not the appropriate time to let a tiring Chris Tillman face a left-hander.

AJ: Can someone comment on whether or not Saunders should’ve actually been sent home or not? I was of the opinion he shouldn’t have been?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Saunders should’ve been tagging up

TapeyBeercone: Two batters too late…

Denji: This always seems to happen a batter too late

Yastrzemski8: I hope Showalter wasnt trying to let Tillman “get the win”

Jeff Sullivan: One-pitch double play. Givens is awesome

Jeff Sullivan: Givens in the second half: .282 slugging allowed

Jeff Sullivan: Givens against righties: .154/.262/.242

Guest: Tillman’s curve really looks to jump upwards before diving straight down. Some pitcher’s curves seem to look straight before falling off a table. Are there actually two archetypes of curves, or does that just have to do with the location they’re typically thrown to?

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s mostly about this game having a lower camera angle than usual

TapeyBeercone: Is this an example of a manager keeping an SP in to give him a chance to get through 5 and have a shot at the W?

Jeff Sullivan: But also it’s an extreme 12-6

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Buck Showalter of all people would use a starter like that in a game like this. I think he was just counting on two trips through the lineup

Carson Cistulli: Probably not specifically an attempt to get the W, but a sort of vestige of that instinct, probably.

A Bloo Bloo Jays: How the heck does gibbons run stroman out for 3rd time through

Carson Cistulli: I think Stroman vs. Jones is okay.

Carson Cistulli: Stroman vs. Kim, not so much.

Jeff Sullivan: Results be damned, at this point I would support removing Stroman and going to relief

Jeff Sullivan: Jones and Kim with easy groundouts…

Carson Cistulli: Well, maybe face Machado and Trumbo, then.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jones: 4.19 down the line

Jeff Sullivan: For later I recommend reading this article for it is terrific

Jeff Sullivan: Little end-of-the-bat single for Machado. Hint of life here for the O’s

jonny: If you had to assemble a front office from only Fangraphs staff (no outside employees at all – no pro scouts, software developers, unpaid MIT interns, etc.), how much better/worse would you do than the average front office?

Jeff Sullivan: Our people skills are not good.

Carson Cistulli: Either Brett Cecil or Aaron Loup to face Chris Davis, when that scenario presents itself.

Eric A Longenhagen: We also don’t have enough people.

Jeff Sullivan: Trumbo’s outta there and the O’s are outta there. 2-2, bottom six, Stroman at 81 pitches

Ryan: How many people comprise an MLB front office?

Carson Cistulli: Eric?

Eric A Longenhagen: First pitch slider this time to Trumbo

Eric A Longenhagen: Well, let’s examine Toronto since that’s topical…give me a sec

Carson Cistulli: That question from Ryan seems up your little alley.

Alex: Gross Carson

Carson Cistulli: Has anyone ever attempted to use a perennial wildflower seed mix? Any luck? No? Am thinking about replacing my grass.

Jeff Sullivan: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/204834134/rangers-gm-jon-daniels-talks-about-season/

Jeff Sullivan: In all, the Rangers had more than 130 people working in baseball operations to help put together a team that won the seventh division title in club history with an American League-best record of 95-67. That includes 27 in the front office, 10 professional scouts, three on the international side and 24 amateur scouts, plus 48 Minor League managers, instructors, coaches and trainers.

Phil: Now Givens can work through the right-heavy top of the order in the 6th, then its Brach/O’Day/Britton time. Being tied at this point has to tilt this slightly to the O’s, right?

Jeff Sullivan: If it stays 2-2 through six, for sure, this tilts to Baltimore. That’s their model

Jeff Sullivan: Easy 1-2-3 whiff of Donaldson right there

Eric A Longenhagen: Just scouting and field staff the Blue Jays have something like 70 employees.

Jeff Sullivan: Man I do not know how any righties *ever* touch Givens

Erik: Isn’t the skill of being a good manager knowing when to reject the numbers (e.g. TTOP) and know when your guy is in the zone? Or is there no zone?

Carson Cistulli: Yeah, between Givens, O’Day, Britton, etc, this is now advantage Baltimore.

Jeff Sullivan: No one has ever observed evidence of there being an actual “zone” but just generally speaking you do need to know how to manage your players as people

dgrussel: How does Givens command that pitch? It looks like he’s one of those clay pigeon throwers for target shooters, just winging it.

The Hamburglar: Donaldson looks mismatched tonight

Jeff Sullivan: He is very physically compromised at the moment

Jeff Sullivan: Bautista down easy. Givens rocks, 2-2, going to the seventh

Jeff Sullivan: Givens: four batters, five outs, 14 pitches, 10 strikes

Carson Cistulli: Majority of respondents thinking Stroman’s coming back out for 7th.

Hint of Rye: I answered yes but without the conviction a exclamation mark denotes.

Carson Cistulli: Sorry. Although, I feel like either choice is emphatic by default at this point.

jonny: Do you think any MLB front offices calculate a strict dollar value for postseason WAR like we do for regular season WAR? For instance, the going rate for 1 WAR in free agency is $8 mil, but if we traded for Player XYZ at the deadline, that would net us 1 postseason win on average, for which we’re willing to pay $XX mil (in assets)?

Jeff Sullivan: This is part of why there’s a trade-deadline premium

John: Closing in on half.

Uncle Jimbo: I do not think it is correct to say there is no evidence of a “zone”. Anyone who has played sports will attest there is. The problem is that you cannot anticipate when it will end.

Carson Cistulli: Yes. Under 55%!

Jeff Sullivan: That’s fair. There are definitely pitchers who would say they’re in the zone, and we’ve all sensed it, but zones can collapse in the blink of an eye for seemingly no reason

Jeff Sullivan: Cecil pitching!

Carson Cistulli: Poll ended. Roughly 55% of respondents were WRONG.

Jeff Sullivan: Suck it, respondents!

Jeff Sullivan: Even the husk of Donaldson makes a strong play on the swinging bunt

Eric A Longenhagen: Visible grimace from Donaldson after the play

CamdenWarehouse: Biagini up for the fourth time. That’s not good for him…

Eric A Longenhagen: As opposed to invisible grimace

Eric A Longenhagen: Or, “The Irish Grimace”

Carson Cistulli:

Carson Cistulli: That’s Josh Donaldson.

chair: what kind of injury is Donaldson fighting through?

Jeff Sullivan: Hip problem

Barry: Invisible Grimace sounds like a metal band

Jeff Sullivan: and assorted other smaller things

Carson Cistulli: Yes. Or the worst McDonald’s character.

dgrussel: Go to hell hippie! (Directed at Carson)

Carson Cistulli: Fair enough.

Jeff Sullivan: Biagini coming in. Cecil got the righty out but lost the lefty because whatever

CamdenWarehouse: Does anyone making a pitching change look more like he is going for a stroll through the pastry section than Gibbons?

Bill: Will you continue the chat into (possible) extra innings?

Jeff Sullivan: No, we will close down abruptly upon the 54th out and you will be on your own

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll keep talking to myself.

Doug : Anything stopping a team saying “we are going to start this right hander” then the opposing team stacks their lineup with lefties and the team then pitches a lefty? Even if the right has to face one batter. Could make the one team blow all their platoon bats early

Jeff Sullivan: I always want to see this

Bork: Why don’t more teams take flyers on fringe RP like Biagini in the rule 5 drafts?

Carson Cistulli: Among the players who find success follow the Rule 5 draft, relievers are probably overrepresented.

Minty: Do hip issues generally heal over the offseason?

Carson Cistulli: Relievers and maybe backup catchers?

Jeff Sullivan: We don’t know what’s actually wrong. The Jays examined him but word won’t be public until the playoffs are over, I’m sure

Cameron: Will Jason Grilli see this game?

Jeff Sullivan: Well hopefully he’s there

BK: this is the best called strike audio of any broadcast all year

Carson Cistulli: Biagini posted the lowest FIP of his professional career this season, having never previously pitched above Double-A.

Jeff Sullivan: Michael Bourn looking a lot more Bourn-y. Stretching, 2-2, bottom 7

Nick: Biagini: Best rule-5 pick ever?

Carson Cistulli: Roberto Clemente was pretty strong. Josh Hamilton.

Carson Cistulli: Johan Santana

Matt: What is determined as “success” in rule 5 drafts? not everyone is Dan Uggla. Weird typing that in a positive note, even as a Marlins fan

Jeff Sullivan: Someone you actually want to keep

Jeremy: Are both teams just swinging for the fence at this point

Jeff Sullivan: “at this point”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shane Victorino, Ender Inciarte…

Thames: Do they sign Take Me Out to the Ball Game during the stretch in Toronto? Or do they have some bizarre Canadian tradition, like a musical salute to maple syrup?

Jeff Sullivan: a single verse of soulDecision’s Faded

Vic Romano: Hector Rondon has been a pretty strong Rule-5 guy.

aspergillus fumigatus: odubel herrera!

Carson Cistulli: Regarding Joey Bats and Rule 5:

Carson Cistulli: “The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted José Bautista in the 20th round of the 2000 Major League Baseball draft from Chipola College. After playing in Minor League Baseball in the Pirates organization through 2003, the Baltimore Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft and carried him on their Opening Day roster. He made his MLB debut with Baltimore on April 4, 2004. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays claimed him off waivers on June 3. Twenty-five days later, the Kansas City Royals purchased him from Tampa Bay. The Royals then traded him to the New York Mets on July 30 for Justin Huber, who then traded him minutes later to Pittsburgh with Ty Wigginton and minor leaguer Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.[8] This series of transactions made him the first and only player to appear on five different Major League rosters in one season.[9]”

BDF: Gotta say, just logging into this chat now and it’s like stumbling into a Kenneth Goldsmith poem.

Bill: Reverse platoon strategy actually was used in Game 7 of a World Series (1924). Senators started Curly Ogden and switched to George Mogridge after two batters.

Darth NateR: I have to say the best thing about Fangraphs Audio is I can read all the staff comments in this chat in their respective voices and pretend like you are all here with me and that I am not watching this game all alone. You are all my friends, especially Carson.

Jeff Sullivan: If it makes you feel better, we are also alone

Carson Cistulli: All so alone.

continents de la mort: .

Jeff Sullivan: Alone. All one.

Stewie: “Not everyone is Dan Uggla.” Understatement of the chat so far.

Jeff Sullivan: But imagine if everyone were

Jeff Sullivan: What if we were all Dan Uggla

Jeff Sullivan: Givens still pitching, Givens still dominating. Tulo the victim this time

Carson Cistulli: Peak Uggla would have been a pretty good fit for either of these teams.

Mike Hunter Pence: T Shirts would cease to exist in favour of sleeve monsters

Barry: I’m Dan Uggla

Carson Cistulli: I am Dan Uggla.

Dept. of Cheese: I’m Dan Uggla!

Jeff Sullivan: Givens is done for tonight! 2.1 sparkling god-damn innings. Time for whatever Donnie Hart is

Erik: I am Dan Uggla.

Eric A Longenhagen: Givens makes me wish the Christian Bethancourt experiment would just get started already.

Balderdash: I am Dan Uggla!

Rog: I am Spartacus!

Jeff Sullivan: So far, 55 Dan Ugglas, one Spartacus

Bernie: 25% of Fangraphs voters are in denial of their inner Dan Uggla.

LudeBurger: I am laughing out loud right now (I am Dan Uggla)

5 Run Homer: Where did good Tulo go?

anonymous: I’m Dan Uggla, and so’s my wife.

Jeff Sullivan: Yesteryear, like the good version of all of us

Dan Uggla: I am not Dan Uggla.

Jeff Sullivan: Oh, Hart throws like a crazy person too

Carson Cistulli: Ceci n’est pas Dan Uggla.

Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles have the weirdest freakin relievers

Carson Cistulli: Eno had a good piece with, like, all the Baltimore relievers at once.

Carson Cistulli: Let’s see…

Jeff Sullivan: I remember that! Didn’t even have Hart yet

The Hamburglar: I thought I once saw Dan Uggla in the dairy section of my grocery store. I lived in Orlando at the time and it was Spring Training, so it wasnt a huge stretch. I stared at a strange man for way too long before realizing it was in fact, not Dan Uggla

Carson Cistulli: Yes. Here’s Sarris’s piece with the O’s bullpen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-the-baltimore-bullpen-can-teach-us-about-arm-action/

Carson Cistulli: Britton, Givens, O’Day.

Jeff Sullivan: Brach is normcore

Mike: I’ve met Dan Uggla

dgrussel: why do they all throw side-army?!

Carson Cistulli: If they were this good and didn’t throw side-army, they’d be starters, probably.

Jeff Sullivan: Upton flies out, and someone threw a bottle of water at Kim

Jeff Sullivan: Good show by Toronto for the second year in a row

TR: It was Dan Uggla

Jeff Sullivan: This is the downside to having a loud, rowdy crowd. That’s strongly correlated with being assholes

Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully the bottle didn’t make contact but can you imagine if it did? Instantly an iconic playoff baseball moment.

Carson Cistulli: I really, really like how Jones scolded that fan. It’s the appropriate response.

Jeff Sullivan: Agree. And Pedro Alvarez was probably dispatched to find and kill him

devin: every time canadians do bad things i’m reminded that all humans really are just monstrous at the core

Jeff Sullivan: We are all shameful and disgusting

Carson Cistulli: To be fair, he was apologizing as he did it.

Nietsniew: Plot twist it was beer

Eric A Longenhagen: Looking back at the video, trying to identify the culprit…

Eric A Longenhagen: Got it

Jeff Sullivan: Broadcast is right! It was a can of beer!

Eric A Longenhagen:

CarrotJuice: Eric, that’s an A+ joke!

Erik: If that bottle of water stopped Kim from making the play, it would be ruled an automatic out, right?

Jeff Sullivan: Gotta be guaranteed. Fan interference or whatever

Matt: I think Adam Jones is easily one of my favorite players for his non baseball work, hes awesome

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Jones is such a wonderful baseball ambassador

Jeff Sullivan: and humanity ambassador

The Hamburglar: To be fair, are we sure the fan wasnt simply buying Kim a beer and threw it to him a little prematurely?

Carson Cistulli: That’s true. Let’s consider all angles.

Eric A Longenhagen: Calling it: Jones torches one here

Sgt. Pepper: I’m so glad that I’m a Jays fan outside Toronto so I don’t have to defend the actual city

Jeff Sullivan: Well Eric, he tried

Carson Cistulli: And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the Bud Light aluminum bottle that is in thine own eye?

anonymous: Bud 3:16

Jeff Sullivan: Jones goes away pretty easily. Good AB for Grilli

Eric A Longenhagen: Welp

Jordan: up until this year I went to anywhere from 25-40 jays games a year, this year I went to 2 and shut it down because of the types of fans being attracted to the games

Jeff Sullivan: #drunkk

kento: Now we’re all waiting for the epic Kim go-ahead homer w/ batflip

Count Von Count: Who’s ready for the next 10 innings???

Clyde Klottz: Kim is from S. Korea, he’s used to nasty northern neighbors

Jart: I’ve always wondered.. it’s so obvious that all pitchers have goop on the bill of their caps and nobody ever gets busted.

Eric A Longenhagen: Grilli goes to his hair.

Carson Cistulli: Listen, my feed is behind. What’s happening?!?

Jeff Sullivan: Kim bounces out. Top of the eighth is complete

Uncle Jimbo: Carson, the game ended 25 minutes ago!!

Count Von Count: Woah, did you see that crazy homer Cistulli?

Jeff Sullivan: Could/should be Britton time at any moment

An interested party: Britton?

Carson Cistulli: Two innings of Britton would be ideal for O’s.

5 Run Homer: Torontonians aren’t Canadian. They’re Americans living within our borders

dgrussel: do you think Kim actually has more power than he’s shown? he’s got pretty good bat speed

Jeff Sullivan: I think he has more raw power than game power

Carson Cistulli: Britton recently hypothesized that he’d likely be more successful in a starting-type role: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zach-britton-on-sinkers-wpa-and-the-cy-young/.

Eric A Longenhagen: Where is Canada, again?

Carson Cistulli: He’s learned a lot about his sinker since moving to the bullpen, seems.

Jeff Sullivan: No to Britton, but yes to Brach

Clint: Brixet?

CarrotJuice: Eric: on a scale of 20-80, how do you rate this game?

Eric A Longenhagen: 30. Not enough teenage Dominicans for my taste.

Jeff Sullivan: Man, Brach is funky too. They’re all funky. This whole relief unit is nuts

Eric A Longenhagen:

devin: seeing some people use this, and last year’s alds game 5, as evidence that toronto’s fan base is bad. is there really any reason to believe that fan bases differ broadly in terms of, like, morality?

Jeff Sullivan: No, of course not

Park Chan ho’s Beard: eric how are you getting your accurate times on runs to first and fly ball hang times and whatnot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stopwatch and the 10sec replay button on the postseason.tv if I want to double check

Perry: When and for how many innings do you use Britton?

Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve said here for two but now I’ll say next inning for two

Jeff Sullivan: Carrera is on with a grounder single. Heads up

Brandon: also can you give us some context as to what times to first are good and which are bad?

Eric A Longenhagen: 4.2 is average for a left-handed hitter. Each tenth of a second in either direction is a notch on the scale. So 4.1 is a 60 time. For RHHs, add .1 since they’re farther from first.

Oblarg: I think the “weird arm-slot pitchers” thing might have something to it. The O’s have reliably been able to put together a good-to-elite bullpen over the past 5 years. Think this might have something to do with it?

Jeff Sullivan: I definitely think there’s a little advantage changing looks constantly

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

Milk: Cistulli, what is your FG link quota for the chat tonight?

Jeff Sullivan: aaaaaaaaaaaaand the double play. We’re even through eight!

Carson Cistulli: I don’t write anything of substance myself, so am therefore compelled to cite everyone else’s work.

Jeff Sullivan: Rough day for Devon Travis. Brach threw 13 pitches. It should be Britton for the ninth no matter what

Carson Cistulli: And the 10th, if that exists. And maybe even the 11th.

Carson Cistulli: It really should have probably been Britton for the 8th.

Jeff Sullivan: The meat of the Jays order is due up next. You want the guy who’s impossible to take deep

devin: exactly, whenever i see sports fans casting aspersions on other fan bases, i can only think of stones, and glass houses, and the like

Jeff Sullivan: The more popular a team gets, and the more fans the team draws, the worse the fans behave. That’s my rule of thumb

Carson Cistulli: Hey, Eric. I declare that JJ Hardy has unusual arm action for a shortstop. Is that true in your eyes? And, if so, does it matter? Would it have mattered for him as a prospect?

Oblarg: JJ Hardy’s arm action is very weird, and it’s due to his history as a tennis player. It’s the same action he uses to serve.

dgrussel: JJ Hardy is an amazing table tennis player

Eric A Longenhagen: He does and it’s something that gets noted on reports but if you show you can throw accurately over time in spite of it, people stop caring. Addy Russell same thing

ChatzMcGee: Devon Travis: WPA killed.

Guest: what’s travis’s wpa at this game?

Jeff Sullivan: -0.295!

Bork: Are there many weird arm slot lefties?

Jeff Sullivan: Lots of side-armers

Jeff Sullivan: Osuna in, Machado out, quickly

Clint: Do you think the O’s compile their bullpen with that in mind or is it happy coincidence?

Carson Cistulli:

Jeff Sullivan: Somewhat coincidence, but I think other teams are more averse to funk than they are

Ronnie: Is Carrera the closest thing to a replacement level player in this game?

Jeff Sullivan: Bourn

Clint: Mr. Cistulli, have you considered a live podcast of a playoff game?

Sam: Eric, how does a pitcher’s arm slot factor into his pitch grades? If a guy throws 88 but has deception or weird action, do you add grades?

Carson Cistulli: I think that might constitute an “account of this game.”

Jack: How many innings would this game have to go before another starter came in for either team

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would take much to see Liriano

CamdenWarehouse: Liriano is warming up

Jeff Sullivan: There you go

Pinstripe Wizard: How baseball would it be though for Britton to give up a walk off HR?

Jeff Sullivan: Feels like the only possible outcome

Eric A Longenhagen: No. Some orgs ask scouts to grade velo, movement, command as separate things but if a pitch plays up or down due to slot that’s usually in the meat of the report.

APODionysus: Can I say I HATE the towels? And all other “cheering props”? Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I prefer to air dry, too.

Jeff Sullivan: Osuna with the intentional delivery hitch! Whiffs Trumbo

Carson Cistulli: Ideally, the public would be allowed to bring its own accoutrements. But they’re not always trustworthy when given that sort of responsibility.

Hint of Rye: As a person who works in TV towels are amazing. So much easier to find a good fan shot with someone waving something above their head.

Clint: Mr. Cistulli, if it’s you and Mr. Sullivan, I believe a defense against “account of game” could be mounted.

Jeff Sullivan: That’s true

Jeff Sullivan: Wieters whiffed with another 3-and-0 green light. At least three of those in this game

Jeff Sullivan: So long Wieters, hello bottom of the ninth

Munenori Kawasaki: Jeff how are the Blue Jays supposed to score again?

Jeff Sullivan: Slap pitches foul until Britton gets tired

Erik: I want to see a position player pitching in a playoff game. How long til we get there? About 4 a.m.?

Carson Cistulli: It would take awhile. Both teams have at least two starters in bullpen.

Eric A Longenhagen: Givens isn’t close enough for you heathens?

Matt: That leg kick by Ozuna seems real likely to cause SBs to me. any data to back that up?

Jeff Sullivan: Eight steals allowed in two seasons

An interested party: If a closer got through every inning in < 5 pitches, how many innings would he go?

Jeff Sullivan: Three. The warm-ups would accumulate

Phil: Whoa… its Brach???

King kang : Unbelievable not Britton

Bork: Really? No Britton?

joseph: Brach??

Jeff Sullivan: This doesn’t seem so wise

Jeff Sullivan: Brach is very good, but Britton is possibly the very best

Carson Cistulli: Yes. “The best” would be preferable at the moment.

Carson Cistulli: Especially as there’s still “very good” left in the bullpen *after* Britton.

Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson leads off with the line-drive double

Carson Cistulli: Seriously. This is the bottom of the ninth.

Eric A Longenhagen: Runner for Donaldson here?

Carson Cistulli: It’s an entire bunch of bananers.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not advocating, just asking.

S: Why don’t pitchers alter their delivery ingame more often?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s extremely hard

Carson Cistulli: Plus, could telegraphs certain pitch, I’d think.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to both.

joseph: Britton MIA…

agam22: And Britton isn’t the one warming up

Hal: Is Britton hurt?

Jeff Sullivan: Took a quick glance at Twitter and yeah we have a bullpen consensus

Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t *insanity* but it is what could be taken as a symptom of such

Hint of Rye: O’Day is warming in the pen..

Carson Cistulli: O’Day is still a fantastic option vs. a RHB.

Carson Cistulli: BUT!

Jeff Sullivan: Of course one should take care to recognize that Brad Brach is fantastic

Carson Cistulli: Yes…

Jeff Sullivan: But anyway!

Jeff Sullivan: What an awesome pitch to make Bautista go away. One down

Carson Cistulli: Yeah. Still, no harm in taking your chances with a guy who sets the ERA record.

Jeff Sullivan: Basically. So dumb

Carson Cistulli: Or nearly sets it.

Jeff Sullivan: And now for Darren O’Day

Crusty Juggler: Never lose with your best guy in the mound, that is what I always say

Oblarg: Britton has to be hurt. There’s no other explanation, I don’t think.

Jeff Sullivan: I can think of one explanation!

dgrussel: Jeff, did you ever close an important game as a pitcher?

Jeff Sullivan: No important game would ever have me as a pitcher

Britton, er, Brach’s Due: What happens to Showalter if this backfires for him?

Jeff Sullivan: We write about him

Hint of Rye: This is the move you talk to the press about for two days.

anonymous: Someone mentioned O’Day, so I’m posting this:

Jeff Sullivan: Double play.

Jeff Sullivan: actual lol

Jeff Sullivan: And theeeeeeeeeeeeeeere goes the FanGraphs article!

Eric A Longenhagen: Absolutely perfect feed to 2B by Machado.

Jeff Sullivan: 2-2, going to the tenth!

Uncle Jimbo: Nobody tell Carson what happened!!!

Carson Cistulli: Sullivan already said. Suck it, Uncle Jimbo!

Jeff Sullivan: Now that the Orioles have escaped that I cannot wait to hear what Showalter has to say about Britton later

Pinstripe Wizard: Showalter gets a lot of credit for his managerial skills, but wow he screwed this up.

Carson Cistulli: O’Day’s reaction after double play seemed to suggest, “Wow, I can’t believe I was just pitching in that situation.”

Jeff Sullivan: This is why managerial mistakes aren’t actually responsible for wins and losses!

Count Von Count: Wow, carson throwing flames tonight!

Crusty Juggler: Yeah, sit on it, Uncle Jimbo

Eric A Longenhagen: Carson, when are we podding?

Carson Cistulli: Uh… Wednesday?

Carson Cistulli: Wait, when’s Wednesday?

Carson Cistulli: Is that tomorrow?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tomorrow is Wednesday.

Carson Cistulli: Oh. Right.

Carson Cistulli: How about Thursday?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s fine as long as we work around Instrux.

Carson Cistulli: Sure. That’s alright.

Eric A Longenhagen: k

Carson Cistulli: Oh! And as someone on Twitter has reminded the public, Darren O’Day was also a Rule 5 pick.

Carson Cistulli: (Apropos our conversation about that from earlier.)

Jeff Sullivan: Davis just got under that

dgrussel: Britton was warming in the top of the 9th…he must be hurt

Jeff Sullivan: Or the other thing!

anonymous: This chat is now serving as Fangraphs slack channel

Eric A Longenhagen: Osuna hurt?

Jeff Sullivan: Oh dear

ChatzMcGee: Osuna hurt.

Henry: Ugh.

Jeff Sullivan: Well that certainly blows

Jeff Sullivan: For anyone not watching, Encarnacion signaled for the trainer to come out after Osuna’s last pitch. He walked off shortly thereafter

Jeff Sullivan: The pitch itself was 96mph

Jeff Sullivan: Liriano is in now and Schoop is now out

Jeff Sullivan: Bourn’s out, to the bottom of the 10th. I wonder which non-Britton pitcher will pitch

ChatzMcGee: Ubaldo!

Sgt. Pepper: What’s Jim Palmer up to these days?

ChiefBigWilly: This looks like OG Liriano

Jeff Sullivan: O’Day to face Tulo/Upton/Pillar

Carson Cistulli: We can take for granted that pitchers tend to produce better numbers in relief than as a starter. I wonder how much a guy like Liriano — who’s maybe not as a dominant or precise as he’s been in the past — how much he benefits from the knowledge that he’s working in a limited capacity.

Carson Cistulli: To be clear: I’m just sitting at this table, wondering that.

Gtrope87: I always wonder how some of these guys come up with these goofy deliveries

Jeff Sullivan: There’s an answer. O’Day dropped down after getting cut in college!

Jeff Sullivan: Justin Smoak pinch-hitting for Melvin Upton, and the crowd applauds, apparently ignorant of Justin Smoak’s statistics

Carson Cistulli: Is it possible that your experience with Smoak as a Mariner colors that comment at all, Sullivan?

Jeff Sullivan: Looking at the statistics, no

Eric A Longenhagen: If anyone wants to follow an O’Day-ish prospect I suggest David Berg.

Jeff Sullivan: By the way, this year, Britton inherited 53 leads, seven ties, and nine deficits

Carson Cistulli: He was a UCLA guy, right, Longenhagen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Look it up.

Eric A Longenhagen: (yes)

Carson Cistulli: Oh, cram it.

Some Guy: Eric, looking ahead to the NLDS, what do we make of Andrew Toles? Is he a big league regular or better?

anonymous: Any clues as to what the Giants-Mets pre-game articles will be about tomorrow afternoon?

Jeff Sullivan: Zach Britton

Will: Britton was only warming up in case we took the lead, it’s Buck’s MO unfortunately

Carson Cistulli: My feed is behind. How long has Zach Britton been in the game?

CamdenWarehouse: He hasnt

Jeff Sullivan: Adam Jones just covered a few dozen yards to take a hit away from Kevin Pillar. Why not play 11?

Carson Cistulli: The comment was *whimsical*, dude.

Eric A Longenhagen: On Toles: I think there’s a chance but I’d be lying if I said I thought he’d keep up this pace forever.

Dan Uggla: Britton has thrown as many pitches in this game as I have.

Jeff Sullivan: Even Zach Britton is Dan Uggla

Jeff Sullivan: Might be why he’s not pitching

Michelle: Thank you guys so much for doing this! I’m having a great time listening to your unique perspectives.

Jeff Sullivan: This comment makes me suspicious

Carson Cistulli: I don’t think Jeff’s perspectives are that unique.

Jeff Sullivan: My perspective that I like you is unique

Hal: What’s the “smart” argument for not bringing in Britton in tie games on the road?

Jeff Sullivan: The “smart” argument would just be that he’s used to pitching with a lead

Oblarg: Am I the only one who’s shocked O’Day’s elbow doesn’t explode with his delivery? It looks like he’s got a *lot* of torque on it, in a weird direction.

Jeff Sullivan: I cringe whenever I see any decent picture of a pitcher at release

Milton: Carson, for some reason ever since my dad started reading fangraphs consistently, he thinks Jeff is the funnier writer.

Eric A Longenhagen: Does your dad talk about me?

Moonraker: Sullivan, you should have been in the room when Smoak was signing that extension with Atkins

Jeff Sullivan: I’m legally not allowed to be in the same room as Justin Smoak

Eric A Longenhagen: Jones: 4.27

Jeff Sullivan: As expected, Liriano dominates. To the bottom of the 11th!

Canadian Border Agent: Mr. Britton couldn’t pass through customs. Canada doesn’t allow FIRE ARMS into the country.

Uncle Jimbo: I’m getting tired. Maybe we could pick up this game in the morning when everyone is well rested.

ChatzMcGee: .344 WPA for O’Day, dang.

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, we should probably Wimbledon this

Carson Cistulli: Uncle Jimbo is using reason.

Jeff Sullivan: Brian Duensing before Zach Britton

Jeff Sullivan: what the actual fuck

CamdenWarehouse: Ubaldo warming up

joseph: Britton still not warming up

anonymous: You know what they say. Duensing before Britton, never been sicker.

Mitchell: I think they put Zach Britton in Brian Duensing’s jersey to add extra deception

Nodog: I thought Showalter had a rep as a good bullpen manager? What gives?

_: Showalter is doing us a favor. Wants the game to end quickly. Knows it’s a weeknight and all.

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t figure this one out. Duensing really seals it. If Britton isn’t hurt or in jail…

Carson Cistulli: That’s true. We’re all working under the assumption that Showalter and the Orioles want to win the game.

Carson Cistulli: Perhaps the *incorrect* assumption.

Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo Jimenez coming in

Jeff Sullivan: what is happening in the world

podccast listener: carson, am i close to fulfilling my obligation?

Carson Cistulli: This was fulfilled some time ago.

Eric A Longenhagen: At the rate this game is going, we’re going to see Cole Duensing pitch before it’s over.

ChiefBigWilly: Stop talking about Britton and start talking about Liriano’s complete filth

Jeff Sullivan: NO

Mattingly’s Sideburns: Britton threw the beer can

LudeBurger: Britton was the one to throw the beer at Kim…

Jeff Sullivan: what a maroon!

bcicles: If you look up overmanaging in the dictionary, it won’t be there because its not a word, but if it was, this game would show up.

Nodog: Ubaldo Jimenez?!?

CamdenWarehouse: Now Ubaldo

ChiefBigWilly: We will all be in bed within 5 minutes

Hal: What would be funnier: O’s winning without using Britton, or Jays winning with a walkoff homer off Britton?

Jeff Sullivan: The first one

Jeff Sullivan: And then Britton blowing a save to start the ALDS

Eric A Longenhagen: Latter

Erik: This has to solidify that Britton is hurt, right? No way a sane manager plays Ubaldo before him.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know man. They still haven’t had a lead

Carson Cistulli: Buck Showalter applied Occam’s razor to his bullpen choices, but ACCIDENTALLY SLICED ZACH BRITTON with Occam’s razor.

Andre Dawson’s Creek : In June of this year Duensing was in AAA for the Royals, Liriano had a 5.17 ERA, and Jimenez had a 6.97 ERA. Baseball.

Jeff Sullivan: Devon Travis greets Ubaldo Jimenez with a mean-spirited single

Nick: #NeverBritton

Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson singles

Jeff Sullivan: I mean

ChiefBigWilly: We are only 3 minutes into my within 5 minutes

Jeff Sullivan: Is Zach Britton locked in the bathroom

Nodog: If I were an Orioles fan, there would be a dent in my wall right now, and my hand would really hurt.

Jeff Sullivan: Mound visit! What now!

Jeff Sullivan: Oh right! Nothing!

Carson Cistulli: And yet… you wouldn’t have even punched it, Nodog!

Carson Cistulli: This game has gone on so long with so little activity, my Roku just asked if I’m still watching.

ChiefBigWilly: HAHAHA good night!

Vic Romano: Boomstick and done.

Jeff Sullivan: Unbelievable

Jeff Sullivan: Well actually extremely believable

Nodog: Jimenez over Britton.

Carson Cistulli: Strong tweet:

Carson Cistulli: https://twitter.com/royalsreview/status/783510625032863745

Stunned O’s fan: FML

lolololololololololololololololo: this is absurd

anonymous: LOL

britishcub: just WTF buck WTF!

A Bloo Bloo Jays: UBALDOOOOOO

FirstOldTimer: SO WORTH IT!

ChatzMcGee: So dumb, and so awesome.

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re all staying up for the presser, right?

Michelle: Goodnight, and thanks for all the fish!

Jeff Sullivan: Osuna on the field hugging Encarnacion so that’s a good sign

Eric A Longenhagen:

Adam: Orioles shock world, withdraw from post season using brexit.

Pinstripe Wizard: Ubaldo threw 5 pitches and gave up 3 runs

Jeff Sullivan: That was such a 2016 Ubaldo Jimenez appearance

Carson Cistulli: This was so weird.

Jeff Sullivan: And so we wait for the Showalter press conference

Carson Cistulli: I do *not* hope that Britton was injured. For his sake.

Carson Cistulli: For the sake of reason, however, it would be preferable.

Jeff Sullivan: Encarnacion, 108mph

Hal: [Zach Britton emerges from the bathroom, hiking up his pants and ready for action]

gtrope87: I guess you can post that Britton article still, Jeff.

Jeff Sullivan: The only question is which one of us will be allowed to write it

APODionysus: I like this tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/CamdenChat/status/783509571989942272

Andre Dawson’s Creek : That’s gotta be brutal to be Jimenez in the clubhouse right now…Britton probably just looking at him, then to Buck, then back to Ubaldo..

red sox fan: I’m never complaining about farrell’s bullpen management again

Eric A Longenhagen: Has the broadcast even mentioned Britton?

Jeff Sullivan: Not that I remember!

Carson Cistulli: Is this like an It’s a Wonderful Life-type situation?

Carson Cistulli: Does Britton actually not exist?

Bork: Has Britton ever existed?

Hint of Rye: Jays radio talked about it a lot.

Pinstripe Wizard: If Britton isn’t hurt, I expect one epic Buck rant at the presser about how he really doesn’t give a damn what any of us think.

CamdenWarehouse: Bye, guys. Thanks for the chat, but this blows