2016 Trade Deadline Chatapalooza by Dave Cameron August 1, 2016 12:00 Dave Cameron: Welcome to deadline day. 12:01 Dave Cameron: With four hours to go, there are still a ton of players who should be moved by days end, so I’m guessing we’re going to see a flood of deals once the dam breaks. 12:01 Dave Cameron: This feels like one of those days where everyone has their plan Bs and Cs lined up, so once they all decide to move on from Plan A, we’re going to get a bunch of moves all at once. 12:02 Dave Cameron: We’ll be hanging out here all afternoon, rotating through FG authors depending on who is writing up what. Eric Longenhagen will be swinging by at 2 to answer prospect related questions as well. 12:03 JoshP: How badly do the mets end up overpaying for Bruce? 12:04 Dave Cameron: I don’t really see the fit there. Bruce is an average-at-best player, and he forces Granderson or Conforto to CF. I doubt they’ll pay a high price for him. 12:04 Lame PM: Do the Phillies do ANYTHING this Trade Deadline? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Would bet Hellickson goes. 12:04 Cameron: See the Jays making a move? 12:04 Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up with Rich Hill. 12:05 Jimmy: Benintendi/Rodriguez/Devers/Swihart for Sale. Deal? 12:05 Dave Cameron: That’s a big overpay for Boston. 12:05 Lame PM: Biggest Name Traded today? 12:05 Dave Cameron: Yasiel Puig. 12:06 Philip Christy: The news of Oakland attempting to extend Rich Hill is just a ploy to raise his trade value, right? The timing of this is quite suspicious. 12:06 Dave Cameron: They’re just weighing their options. If he’d re-sign cheap, then that might be worth keeping him. 12:06 Tom: Can the Rays really get a better return in the offseason with more teams interesting in buying or are they missing out on what appears to be a strong seller’s market? 12:07 Dave Cameron: Besides injured guys or low-stock guys (think Sonny Gray), I don’t think anyone is bringing back a better return in the winter than they are now. 12:07 Zock jr: Dave, with the Red Sox stumbling over their last ten games, do you think they SHOULD make another move? Or do they trust the talent on the roster? 12:07 Dave Cameron: If I were them, I’d be trying for a Lucroy/Guerra/Thornburg package from MIL. 12:07 Jason: Am I wrong to think the Melancon trade was an absolute steal for the Nats, especially considering the Chapman context? 12:08 Dave Cameron: I think the Chapman trade was the outlier, not the Melancon trade. The Nationals paid a reasonable price for a rental closer. The Cubs paid an exorbitant one. 12:08 Dustin: Tell me if I’m just seeing this through Copolella-colored glasses: I like the Kemp trade for Atlanta. I don’t think Kemp is a good player, of course, but if Oliviera was considered a sunk cost, the Braves are essentially paying $8.5m/year for a guy who could potentially net some degree of prospect return in a future trade if the planets align properly. Plus, I’m just glad to have a garbage human being off the Braves’ roster … I was afraid they might try to use him again once his suspension was up, and that would’ve been gross. I didn’t want to do the mental gymnastics it would take to be okay with that. 12:09 Dave Cameron: Getting Kemp did not get rid of Olivera; the Braves could have DFA’d him themselves. That deal simply is the equivalent of signing Kemp for 3/$25M. It’s not a disaster, since he’d probably get something like that in free agency, but if I’m the Braves I’d have much rather spent $25 million on someone younger and with legitimate upside. 12:10 jake : Why isn’t Darnaud/ Nimmo sealing the deal for Lucroy, are they just not going to deal him? 12:10 Dave Cameron: D’Arnaud and Nimmo aren’t that good. 12:10 Oliver: I know hes a lefty and is contract is relatively cheap (especially recently) but is Matt Moore really worth 2 top prospects? 12:10 Dave Cameron: Nope. 12:10 Josh: Sale to the Dodgers for Urias, De Leon, Austin Barnes, Frankie Montas and PTNL’s on either side. Too rich for the Dodgers? Not enough for the Sox? 12:11 Dave Cameron: Probably too rich for LA. Not insane, but I think they’d probably want to keep one of Urias/de Leon, and have the second prospect be slightly lesser value. 12:11 j6takish: What actually happens when a player uses a no-trade clause? Is there any paperwork that needs to be signed, or is it as simple as texting a “no” to your agent? 12:12 Dave Cameron: Agent calls the GM and says we won’t waive the no-trade. Paperwork only needs to be handled when a player does waive his no-trade right. 12:12 Schooner O’Malley: Was the Yankees fleecing of the Indians as bad as it appears? Seems RP are being WAY overvalued as Theo predicted after last year’s WS. How good is Clint Frazier? 12:12 Dave Cameron: I actually don’t think the Indians got fleeced for Miller, but I’m probably lower on Frazier than where he’s being rated on prospect lists. 12:14 jake : the other day you (or one of your colleagues) stated that the Cubs have no glaring needs. While I would agree with that statement, there is always room for improvement right? With the treasure chest of assets at the cubs disposal why not just say “screw it we know Lackey is good but we could do better” and try to go for Sale or in the very least Archer. A playoff frontline rotation of Arrieta, Sale/Archer, Lester really just increases the cubs title chances ten-fold. Why not start with Hendricks/ Schwarber/ Baez package? 12:15 Dave Cameron: The marginal gain by improving your #3 starter in the postseason doesn’t do anything like what you’re suggesting it does. Realistically, only or or maybe two guys can make two starts in the division series, so having an ace as your #3 (which acquiring any of those guys would do) is a waste. 12:15 Dave Cameron: And the difference between Hendricks and those guys isn’t that large anyway. 12:16 Chris: Can the Red Sox get Sale without including Benintendi or Moncada? Devers, Kopech, Dubon plus 2-3 other high ceiling prospects enough? 12:16 Dave Cameron: No. 12:16 Gabriel: The return for Melancon seems light, does it hinges on Hearn being a starter down the road? 12:16 Dave Cameron: No, I think it reflects the fact that they got back a quality big league reliever. Keep in mind that when we’re talking about the RP market being inflated, that inflates Rivero’s value too. 12:16 Dave Kingman: Which 8th inning arms are most likely to become closers by the deadline due to a trade? 12:16 Dave Cameron: Nate Jones. 12:18 Andrew: If Puig moves where do you see him landing? 12:18 Dave Cameron: I think he’ll go to Tampa, or a similar team that wants upside but can’t afford to sign high-end FAs. 12:19 Josh G.: Since you’ve laid out the case for why Red Sox should get Lucroy, would Blake Swihart plus a lesser prospect tempt the Brewers? 12:19 Dave Cameron: I would think Swihart would have to be in the deal, but I don’t know how the Brewers value him. 12:20 Joey bats: What is beltran going to bring back? 12:20 Dave Cameron: Probably something decent. He’s the best bat on the market. 12:21 JD: Seems like with Dodger, Rangers and BoSox having so much prospect currency and some holes we can expect some fireworks today….right? Need some excitment 12:21 Dave Cameron: I do think LA does something fairly big. I’m betting on Puig going somewhere, them getting an arm and an OF. 12:21 Dave Cameron: And other stuff involved. 12:21 matt: I’ve been arguing w my buddy that the marlins trade for cashner really wasn’t that bad. He’s convinced it’s horrific, but he also has no concept of nuance. So what did you think of that trade 12:22 Dave Cameron: Horrific is an overstatement, but I didn’t like it. Cashner isn’t that much more valuable than Wade Miley, who went for nothing, and Rea is nothing. 12:22 Nick: What were some of the hypothetical trades involving Mookie Betts a few years ago before he was able to establish himself and how ridiculous do some of those look now 12:23 Dave Cameron: We were ridiculed pretty loudly for saying that the Sox shouldn’t put Betts in any Cole Hamels deals. When I suggested that Betts for two years of Stephen Strasburg would be an interesting deal for both sides, people got indignant. Turns out even that would have been a disaster for the Red Sox. 12:24 Dave Cameron: Mets apparently getting close to Jay Bruce deal, which is weird. 12:25 Dave Cameron: I get that they don’t believe in defense, but Bruce isn’t that good, and at some point, they can’t think defense is entirely irrelevant. 12:25 Davos: Would the Rangers benefit more from getting Lucroy or a starting pitcher? 12:25 Dave Cameron: Lucroy is better than any non-Sale pitcher on the market. 12:26 Josh: What type of value would Junior Guerra net the Brewers? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Probably a decent prospect. It’s cheap control for a guy currently throwing well. 12:26 Mike: Would Pearce make sense for the Dodgers given their revolving OF this season? 12:26 Dave Cameron: Think they’d prefer a better defender. 12:27 sam: at what point does the market price get too high, and teams, e.g. dodgers, are better off keeping bellinger, de leon, etc? 12:27 Dave Cameron: Well they’d say we’re already at that point. 12:27 Dave Cameron: But prices probably drop in next hour or two. 12:29 JTT: How are guys like Rosenthal so connected to where they can learn things minutes after they go down, is he pestering people constantly, blasting hundreds of people with texts until he gets something? Is it as simple as team PR reps contacting him? 12:29 Dave Cameron: He’s just really well sourced, so he has contacts in every front office and agency out there. 12:29 J.D.: Given Chris Sale’s changing profile, do you think the White Sox will be making a mistake if they don’t trade him today? 12:30 Dave Cameron: I think it has more to do with the lack of other pitchers available and the premium they can charge now that won’t exist in the future. 12:30 Dave Cameron: I don’t think Sale is about to turn to crap. 12:31 ShakeYourTushieHasegawa: Most head-scratching trade you’ve ever seen was ___________ 12:31 Dave Cameron: The Rockies trading for Jake McGee was up there. 12:31 Ben: Do you think Reddick can bring back a prospect like Bellinger from the Dodgers? 12:31 Dave Cameron: No. 12:32 Jonny Snow: So… Fair warining. Going to go full ‘needs IV Haldol immediately’ here. If I’m the Braves, and I’m aware that the 2017 team will be contending for the #1 overall pick, and that we’re realistically not going to be competitive until 2020 at the earliest… Isn’t the Kemp trade perfect? We can take salary for the next three years knowing that we’re not going to be stretching every dollar for a team improvement for a playoff push. We can take bad contracts on the off chance that the player recoups value. Hasn’t that been a trend this season? Trading for/signing undervalued/underachieving players (Chapman, Pomeranz, for example) and trying to recoup their value? (For the record, still think it was a dumb trade… However, the reasoning isn’t completely irrational). 12:32 Dave Cameron: Yes, taking dead money old players when you don’t have any financial commitments and free agents won’t come there is a good plan, but you do it to buy prospects, or to get guys with upside. Kemp stinks, and they got no prospects. 12:33 Bryce: What do you think the Giants might do for pitching help? 12:33 Dave Cameron: Still think they get a reliever. Maybe Jeffress or someone like that. 12:34 The Hamburglar: You mentioned not being as big of a fan of Clint Frazier, but do you think the Yankees still made a good trade? Or should they have held out for a bigger package? 12:34 Dave Cameron: I think it was the right idea to trade him. If I were them, I might be trying to spin Frazier for something else though. 12:35 Dave Cameron: Sounds like Nimmo for Bruce, plus maybe some other stuff. 12:35 Dave Cameron: I’m not that high on Nimmo, but I’m also not sure Bruce is dramatically better. 12:36 Scott: Agree that Nimmo is “not that good,” but what’s the basis for applying that label to d’Arnaud? He had a 131 WRC+ last year with solid defense. He has struggled at the plate this year, in limited time, but projects to improve. Is the main concern his injury issues? Or do you think this year’s struggles at the plate, and not last year’s success, represent the true baseline? 12:37 Dave Cameron: The 131 wRC+ came in 250 at-bats. Career wRC+ of 101, and he does not give you solid defense. Bad defensive catcher with an okay bat and lots of injury problems. 12:37 Shaemus: Reds cannot seem to accurately Value prospects. True or false? 12:38 Dave Cameron: I think they just prefer proximity to the majors over upside. Nimmo fits with guys like Peraza as lower upside guys who can play sooner. 12:38 Mike: Puig for James Shields? Terrible for the Dodgers, no? 12:38 Dave Cameron: Yes, Dodgers wouldn’t do that. 12:39 Houzer : if the ask was the same, would you value Sonny Gray or Moore as a better return? 12:39 Dave Cameron: Gray. 12:39 Guest: In regards to your “Fair price for Chris Sale” piece, how would you value Eduardo Rodriguez? A year in the majors with mixed results, but was a high ranked prospect before 12:39 Dave Cameron: I’m not as high on Rodriguez as others. Big velo bounces, and he doesn’t seem to miss bats when the fastball is closer to 90 than 95. 12:40 Tacos: Is a package of De Leon, Holmes, and Puig enough for Jose Quintana? 12:40 Dave Cameron: It should at least get the White Sox to think about it. It depends on how Puig is valued, which is not an easy one to solve. 12:41 Outta my way, Gyorkass: Moncada + filler for Lucroy and Jeffress. Who hangs up? 12:41 Dave Cameron: Red Sox aren’t putting Moncada in a Lucroy deal. 12:41 Outta my way, Gyorkass: Will a Lucroy deal get done before the deadline in a few hours? 12:41 Dave Cameron: Yes, I think he ends up in Texas. 12:42 MH: Which prospects does Texas end up dealing? 12:42 Dave Cameron: I’d bet on Brinson. 12:43 Patrick breecher: Where do you see Pearce landing 12:43 Dave Cameron: He’d make sense for the Indians. 12:43 RMR: Dave, I think most people read “lower upside” and read that as “lower value”. Is is more accurate to interpret that more as lower variance than lower average value? A guy like Peraza is highly unlikely to ever be a 4+ WAR, all-star type. But he’s much more likely to be a regular major leaguer than your typical plus prospect who is still in A ball. 12:43 Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s pretty much what I was trying to say. 12:43 Dave Cameron: Narrower range of outcomes. 12:44 Dave Cameron: Joel Sherman says Nimmo and two lower level guys for Bruce. 12:44 Will: Do you think the mets trade for jay Bruce will be very helpful for and potential world series push? 12:45 Dave Cameron: Not really. It’s probably a less than one win upgrade, and that’s assuming his defense isn’t the total disaster that UZR/DRS have rated it as this year. 12:45 Joel: Earlier this year there was a fantastic FG piece on batted ball authority, and it showed Valencia having one of the best batted ball profiles in the league (Exit velos on GB/FB, GB/FB mix, etc). Why does the market on him seem so quiet as opposed to the “bigger” names like Bruce? Is it because the Defense is sub-par? 12:45 Dave Cameron: He’s also apparently got some clubhouse issues. 12:46 PR: how many GMs know Dave Cameron is Managing Editor of fangraphs? 12:47 Dave Cameron: Probably 29 of them. I don’t know what Dave Stewart knows. 12:48 Outta my way, Gyorkass: How badly did Will Smith’s last 10 games torpedo his trade value? Strictly an offseason move now? 12:48 Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s going to have to rebuild his value and show he can pitch through the knee problem. 12:48 PR: ERod, Swihart, Devers and Kopech isnt enough for Sale? 12:48 Dave Cameron: No. 12:49 Pete: Hypothetically if a baseball ops dept. called you at 3:59 panicked with a trade offer they hadn’t expected or evaluated, would you help ’em out? 12:50 Dave Cameron: If a front office is calling me on trade deadline day, they have more problems than evaluating an unexpected offer. 12:50 DPF: What are the Pirates thinking? Freese, Joyce, Jaso, Rodriquez should all be available, but I’m reading nothing about selling. The Brewers sweep should have closed the book on them as contenders this year. 12:50 Dave Cameron: Those guys can go in August trades too. 12:51 mtsw: Weird how E-Rod bounced up the prospect rankings as soon as the Red Sox traded for him then turned out to end up more like the fringe-starter guy people thought he was when he was in the Orioles system. Is there anything to the fairly-widespread perception that the Red Sox manipulate the media into overhyping their own prospects? 12:51 Dave Cameron: Had much more to do with legitimate velo spike after he got to Boston. 12:51 Dave Cameron: Rodriguez throwing 95 is interesting. Rodriguez throwing 92 is not as interesting. 12:52 Outta my way, Gyorkass: What did you think of the CLE package that ultimately didn’t go to MIL in the vetoed Lucroy deal? Intuitively, the Mejia centered package seemed light to me, but was that just a result of not getting one of the more hyped names in CLE’s system like Frazier or ZImmer? 12:53 Dave Cameron: I thought it was a little on the light side, but with the caveat that we’re probably worst at evaluating minor league catchers compared to other prospects. 12:53 J.D. : For the record, Baseball America had Rodriguez at #65 with the Orioles in 2014 and #59 with the Red Sox in 2015. Obviously not much change there. 12:53 Ryan: It has been reported that the Rays are shopping a few of their starting pitchers, I’m going to fully assume that Blake Snell is not one of them, am I correct? 12:54 Dave Cameron: They’d probably listen on him but demand a crazy package that would make it a non-starter. 12:54 DPF: RE: Pirates August trades – they’re all relatively cheap and short term contracts, I’d assume they all get blocked in August 12:54 Dave Cameron: Go look at who gets moved in August. Role players and bench guys. 12:55 sam: how would you rate the writers at fangraphs v. actual front offices in terms of analysis/knowledge? I’m generally on your guys’ side, but are there times when FOs know something that we don’t? or are they just madly wrong 12:55 Dave Cameron: They always know stuff we don’t. 12:55 Dave Cameron: We’re doing the best we can with the public information, but they always have an edge in quality of information available. That doesn’t mean they’re making the right decisions with that information, but there will never be a case where we know more than they do about a player. They just might use their information edge incorrectly. 12:56 Dave Cameron: Reddick and Hill to LA, per Rosenthal. 12:56 Dave Cameron: Jharel Cotton to Oakland. 12:57 Mike: That deal made too much sense not to happen. 12:57 Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s really a good fit for LA. Gets them a solid OF to replace Puig if they move him or moves Kendrick to utility role if they don’t. Hill a perfect fit for their rotation. 12:58 Timon of Athens: Gotta be bigger package to Oak than that though 12:58 Dave Cameron: Agreed. 12:58 Dave Cameron: Two minute break. 1:01 Nick: Abad to the Red Sox. I don’t know him. 1:01 Dave Cameron: He’s a decent enough middle reliever. Depth. 1:02 Peter Gifford: Can Fernando Abad close for Sox until Kimbrel returns from DL? 1:02 Dave Cameron: He’s not a guy you want in the 9th inning. 1:02 andy: Passan says Cotton isn’t the deal’s headliner 1:02 Dave Cameron: Follows up with Montas. 1:02 Dave Cameron: Montas/Cotten still feels light for Hill/Reddick. 1:03 Alex: Right or wrong: Friedman is undervaluing player health/durability. 1:03 Dave Cameron: Wrong. 1:03 Issac: Perhaps they moved Puig himself in the deal, there was a lot of chatter about him being moved, and Reddick does fill in RF. 1:03 Dave Cameron: Could be a three way, maybe. Don’t think the A’s want him. 1:07 termel sledge: holmes too apparently. good trade for the A’s now? 1:07 Dave Cameron: Yeah, Holmes/Cotten/Montas good return for Oakland. 1:07 cj: do you like the As trade more than pads pom one 1:07 Dave Cameron: Yes. 1:09 Peter: Theoretically, if the Dodgers would have wanted to try to pry away Gray as well, Bellinger or De Leon would have to be included, right? 1:09 Dave Cameron: Yes, plus more. Price on Gray was going to be similar to price for Archer. 1:09 David: Can’t see Dodgers making deal for Sale/Quintana after acquiring Hill, right? 1:09 Dave Cameron: Right. 1:10 BSL: LA still needs another arm though right? 1:10 Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. 1:11 Chip: The A’s have to give Montas a chance to start, right? 1:11 Dave Cameron: Given price teams paying for high-end relievers now, seems like letting him turn into dominant closer is just as good an outcome as if he’s an okay starte.r 1:12 Shaemus: Puig? Where does he land? 1:12 Dave Cameron: Tampa/Chicago. 1:13 Mike_C: These reliever prices are just a bubble, right? No way this is our new reality where a top reliever commands these kinds of prospect packages. 1:13 Dave Cameron: Game is moving more towards shorter starts and expanded bullpens, so natural that RPs gain in value. 1:14 Drew: Teheran? Stay or traded today? 1:14 Dave Cameron: They seem serious about keeping him. 1:14 Jim Lonborg: By Chicago I trust you mean South Side? 1:14 Dave Cameron: Right. 1:15 Dave Cameron: Rosenthal with report that Brewers want Dilson Herrera in a Lucroy package with D’Arnaud. Dilson would be a good fit for them. 1:15 Grant : How does Hill fit in with the Dodgers? Seems like they’re taking a gamble on Kershaw coming back healthy. Hill is quality but seems to not quite the battle tested shut down arm Friedman would target. 1:15 Dave Cameron: Dodgers have been betting on talent over health since moment new regime took over. They clearly believe health is hard to predict. 1:15 Dave Cameron: And realistically, Hill is best upside arm of available pitchers. They didn’t need another depth guy. 1:16 melmivmavoe: is hill close to returning? why trade for a rental that isn’t healthy? 1:16 Dave Cameron: This is a move about October. 1:16 Dave Cameron: If they can go Kershaw/Hill/Maeda/McCarthy in October, they’re going to really freaking tough. 1:16 Avi: Rosenthal says Herrera, Heyman says deal is nearly dead. 1:17 Patrick breecher: Do you think As will move Doolittle or did that injury sap him of value 1:17 Dave Cameron: August trade if he gets healthy. 1:17 Grant : Are the Dodgers done for the day or are they still in the market to ship Puig/acquire another arm? 1:18 Dave Cameron: Think Reddick was acquired to let them trade Puig. 1:18 Grand Admiral Braun: Wouldn’t Gallo + a relief arm be a better return for MIL than Herrera as the headliner from NYM? 1:18 Dave Cameron: Yes, but not clear Texas would do that. 1:18 Roy: Does the Cosart to Mariners rumor suggest the Mariners are making a push for the playoffs this year even after the Miley trade? 1:19 Dave Cameron: No, it suggests that they think Cozart can help them next year too, and Reds not asking for a ton in market where no contenders need SS. 1:19 Dave: What are the possibilities of this: Lucroy/Guerra/Jeffress to Rangers for a huge haul of prospects 1:19 Dave Cameron: I think it’s possible. 1:19 Dave Cameron: Not sure it’s likely, but it would make sense. 1:20 Grant : Would the Dodgers try shipping Puig, Urias, and another couple of prospects to CWS for Sale? 1:20 Dave Cameron: No, think they’re out on Sale. 1:20 Jeff: Do the reds think they can compete with the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals with all the High floor Low ceiling players in a few years? 1:20 Dave Cameron: Not really. They’ll need a few guys to turn into stars. 1:20 The Dude of NY: Joel Sherman: Red Sox are out on Sale. 1:21 Dave Cameron: Sounds like White Sox weren’t going to move him for a reasonable price. 1:21 Kevin: Ken Rosenthal is a class-act in his reporting. He gives credit to the initial reporter without fail. 1:21 Dave Cameron: He’s the Mike Trout of reporters. 1:21 Nick: Urias, Puig, Verdugo seems like a reasonable price for Sale 1:21 Dave Cameron: I agree. I’m not sure CHW does. 1:22 RSO: What do you see the Yankees doing today? 1:22 Dave Cameron: Beltran deal, probably nothing else. 1:23 Matt: Nova not going anywhere? 1:23 Dave Cameron: Don’t think he 1:23 Dave Cameron: Don’t think he’s good enough for GMs to waste pre-deadline time on. 1:23 Jack: Do controlled guys like Shoemaker or Walker get moved today? 1:23 Dave Cameron: Guessing no. 1:26 Tony G.: Where do you think Robertson ends up come 4:01 pm? 1:26 Dave Cameron: Giants. 1:26 Wally: If Lucroy is going to get traded anyway to a team he can’t veto, why wouldn’t he rethink his veto of CLE and go there. I mean, if he hates the place and loves TEX, ok that makes sense. But once they can get around his veto by involving another club, shouldn’t he just pick the best spot? 1:26 Dave Cameron: Because he doesn’t trust CLE to keep him. 1:27 glenstein: What do you make of the desire to follow transactions in real time, be it at a trade deadline or a draft or anything else? There’s definitely an intrigue to it. But what practical difference would it make if I learn about a Lucroy trade at 8pm tonight, as opposed to hearing about it live? None that I can think of, but I still follow obsessively. 1:27 Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is just entertainment, basically. Knowing a little sooner doesn’t actually matter. 1:28 Max Fischer: it would be cool if you answered a few questions not related to the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Cubs and White Sox. When did you become a shill to traditional mass market sports coverage? You used to be a passionate writer. now you just churn out more Big Market pandering 1:28 Dave Cameron: Teams that have actually made trades today: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox. 1:28 Dave Cameron: But yeah, I should definitely be writing about how the Astros have still not done anything. 1:28 Brian: Nova isn’t that much worse than Miley 1:28 Dave Cameron: And Miley was basically given away. 1:29 Shirtless George Brett: Does a Puig for Matt Moore deal seem logical at all? 1:29 Dave Cameron: Not sure what Moore gives LA at this point. 1:29 Nick: Let’s make Max happy…who should be the 7th inning guy for the Twins next year? 1:29 Dave Cameron: Kurt Suzuki. 1:30 Schooner O’Malley: I believe Max Fischer is the character from RUSHMORE and his post was comedic and in tone of that character. 🙂 1:30 Dave Cameron: I know basically nothing about pop culture, so jokes like this will almost always go over my head. 1:31 Matt: So what went wrong with Puig anyway? 1:32 Dave Cameron: No one really knows. There have been PED rumors about him forever, given how his body changed from pre-signing to post-signing, but even that wouldn’t explain why he stopped hitting like this. 1:32 Parts unknown : Any SP deals you see that could end up like Fister to the Tigers a few years ago, i.e. Not that hyped but ended up paying off well for the acquiring team! 1:33 Dave Cameron: Junior Guerra would be the most Fister-like guy. 1:33 nick jens: How do you grade each side of the As Dodgers deal? 1:33 Dave Cameron: I like Hill and Reddick, and think they’ll help LA, but that was a high price to pay for rentals with health questions. Think Oakland did really well. 1:35 Juan: Aren’t the Dodgers showing that they’re willing to deal pitching prospects but not hitting prospects? They’ve dealt Heaney, Holmes, Cotton, Montas but don’t seem willing to deal any of their bats. Gordon would be the exception but they got Kike and Barnes in return. 1:35 Dave Cameron: Yeah, pretty clear that they value young hitters very highly. 1:35 Sameer: What do you think of the Bruce trade, did the mets give up to much? Can you give a grade? 1:35 Dave Cameron: I don’t think Nimmo is anything special, so cost not that high, but upgrade also minimal. 1:36 Art Vandelay: OH NO! The Mets found something in Bruce’s medicals, this seems like a running joke at this point. 1:36 Dave Cameron: More likely Nimmo’s broken foot from earlier in the year is being problematic. 1:38 Dave Cameron: Ken Rosenthal @Ken_RosenthalSource: #Marlins sending Rea back to #Padres but keeping Cashner. Rea left first start with MIA due to elbow injury. 1:38 Dave Cameron: AJ Preller always manages to find himself on other teams bad side. 1:38 A. Reitz: Montas and Cotton are relievers. 2 pitch SP. Holmes is 3 years away. I won’t disagree it was steep, but it wasn’t THAT steep if he helps the Dodgers down the stretch and in the playoffs…That wasn’t a question. Just a correction. 1:38 Dave Cameron: I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but relievers are really valuable right now. 1:39 Gabe: Re: Marlins-Padres thing, Passan says “apparently there will be recourse.” What does that mean? Compensation? Throwing at players? Angry text messages? 1:39 Dave Cameron: Deal will get re-worked. 1:39 JTT: I know that teams have HIPAA laws but how do failed physicals always come out? How are front office employees not losing their jobs over this kind of stuff? 1:39 Dave Cameron: How do you track down who leaked what to a reporter? 1:41 Hank: Couldn’t the Padres just say “hey, you did a physical and didn’t see anything, so it’s your problem”? 1:41 Dave Cameron: No. Buyers rely on sellers to provide accurate/up-to-date medical information. If they can show that SD didn’t do that, then SD is culpable. 1:42 Dan: Padres: Better return policy than Wal-Mart? 1:42 Dave Cameron: Seems more like an exchange than a money back situation. 1:43 Rick: What do you think of Ervin Santana Jays rumour? 1:43 Dave Cameron: Makes some sense. 1:44 Pat: If SD was continuously using intentionally misleading medicals to complete trades (not saying they did, just a What if?) & it was proven, what is the recourse, long term? MLB steps in & fines them? Preller gets fired? Teams just quit doing business with them? 1:44 Dave Cameron: If it could be proven, MLB would punish them. But would be very hard to prove. And no reason for SD to do it. More likely this was just a fluke. 1:45 Matt: Do the MLB rules allow for do-overs, or does this need to “officially ” be a second transaction? 1:45 Dave Cameron: Rosenthal says he’s being traded back to SD. So separate move. 1:46 Elton: It was only 8 years ago that Casey Blake was traded for Carlos Santana. How unthinkable would such a lopsided looking deal be today? (Unless Ned Colletti is still in the game somewhere? His quote was “Casey Blake is a gamer. His experience and character will be a plus as we head down the stretch in the final two months of the regular season.”) 1:46 Dave Cameron: The game has changed a lot. 1:48 Dave: The Mets seem like a team that leaks rumors out to the media because the players in their deals always seem to be known. Do other teams hate that and make them less inclined to deal with the Mets? 1:49 Dave Cameron: Not so much about the Mets and more about vast quantity of reporters in NY. 1:49 Dave Cameron: Hard to keep a lid on things with 50 beat writers scouring around. 1:49 The Dude of NY: Mike Petriello is following along in this chat! He just posted Elton’s comment on Twitter! Hi Mike! 1:49 Dave Cameron: Hi Mike! 1:50 glenstein: Attempting to turn a nothing into a something: which team that has been completely inactive today stands to be hurt the most by their inactivity? Astros? Tigers? 1:50 Dave Cameron: Braves. 1:51 Eric: What do the Braves have to sell that they actually will part with? 1:51 Dave Cameron: Not about what they will, about what they should. 1:51 David: Why doesn’t MLB give teams the day off today? 1:52 Dave Cameron: Players aren’t making trades. 1:52 Josh Byrnes: Who’s one player that could’ve been acquired for the package that brought back Hill/Reddick? 1:53 Dave Cameron: Lucroy, maybe? 1:54 Bernie: What’s the record for most different teams involved in eating part of the same contract – has Kemp surpassed Vernon Wells? 1:54 Dave Cameron: Kemp only getting paid by Braves/Dodgers right now. 1:54 Dave Cameron: Padres dumped their obligation to him in exchange for taking Olivera. 1:55 Cubbies: Think BoSox bring up Benintendi prior to rosters expanding? 1:55 Dave Cameron: Yes, I think he’s up very soon 1:55 forever it: Padres apparently have to give back Luis Castillo. Unclear what the fuss is about since the Marlins traded Paddack to them and he got injured after like 3 starts… 1:56 EC: When players get paid by separate teams, do they actually receive separate pay checks? 1:56 Dave Cameron: I don’t know for sure, but I’d bet the teams pay each other instead. 1:57 David: Damn, 2 hours. Thanks for going this long! 1:58 Dave Cameron: It’s not called a chatapalooza for nothing. Once Eric finishes his write-up of the guys the A’s got, he’ll come take over and chat about the prospects moved in the various deals. 1:58 Stu: Just don’t agree with you about the Braves. If they’re right that he’s worth more than the market thinks he is, they benefit by holding onto him. He’s 25 and has several affordable years left on his deal — not like they’re declining to trade a rental. 1:58 Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’re right about him. 1:59 Russ: how long past 4:00 do you expect news to continue to trickle in? 1:59 Dave Cameron: Usually it’s a few hours. 2:00 N.W.enO: What do you expect from Benintendi when up? 2:00 Dave Cameron: Average-ish bat, good D, good baserunning. 2:00 cashman: why aren’t you as big of a fan of clint frazier as others? 2:01 Dave Cameron: Guys with lots of raw power but less impressive game power often seem to be overestimated. Mark Trumbo, for example. Can hit the ball a mile but has never really been as good a hitter as his power would suggest. 2:02 Peter: I want the Nats to do something else…what should it be? 2:02 Dave Cameron: A guy like Steve Pearce would fit. 2:02 Ryan: Not to defend the Braves, but there could be a baseball/business misalignment going on here: Baseball – Should make trades to improve team for 2018 and beyond. Business – Need to sell season tickets for new stadium, etc., by at least maintaining fig leaf of more immediate contention. We’re here talking about the baseball side, but team probably influenced quite a lot by the business side. 2:03 Dave Cameron: Sure, not saying front office has free reign to do whatever they want. But I think franchise is making a bad baseball decision by keeping Teheran. 2:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, I’m here. Will be in and out sporadically because…ya know…writing about prospects in trades, but feel free to pepper in prospect questions. 2:05 Dave: Deadline is here and i feel not too many big time trades have happened. Are we in for a wild next 2 hours? 2:05 Dave Cameron: Probably wild 3-4 hours. Stuff that gets done at 3:59 doesn’t come out right away. 2:05 EC: For both Dave and Eric: Giolito for Andrew Miller would have been crazy, right? 2:05 Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t have done it, but I do see argument for trading Giolito. 2:05 Hank: You talk about teheran and the braves as if they desperately need to make a trade to boost their rebuild….except they already have one of baseball’s top systems and a bunch of payroll flexibility going forward. At some point you have to stop trading your major league assets… 2:06 Dave Cameron: Yes, that point is when you have a good team. The Braves don’t. 2:06 Paul: Are there traded that really occurred 2 mins before the deadline or is it technically impossible with the required approval of MLB? 2:06 Dave Cameron: Yes, deals go right down to the wire. 2:06 Jim Lonborg: No Szym this week, or another day? Not complaining (thanks for chatting, Dave!), just clarifying. 2:07 Dave Cameron: Szym is busy writing up deals for ESPN today. 2:07 Drew: Eric, do you think Teheran could bring back top flight offensive prospects the braves sorely need? I.E. Moncada, Benditedi etc? 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: No. 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Those names are too heavy. 2:08 Dave Cameron: But that is what ATL was asking for. 2:08 Electric: Eric-Any reason to believe NYY will tinker with Frazier’s timing/load mechanism when he gets to Trenton? 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it, he’s had success with his current swing so no reason to proactively change it, even though I think it’s flawed. 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: And if it’s going to play anywhere it will be Yankee Stadium. 2:09 Sailor Jerry: Eric, think there’s any chance Cotton pans out as a long-term starter or is he strictly bullpen? 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Writing him up right now. I do think he can start, have been championing him since last Fall League. 2:11 5 Run Homer: How do you pronounce Jharel Cotton? 2:11 Eric A Longenhagen: juh-RELL 2:12 Tondo: Hey Eric, for the Indians: would you trade F.Mejia straight up for the A’s Vogt? Too desperate? 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s rally hard. Probably not. Mejia has a chance to be very special but obviously catching prospects represent significant risk and he might be nothing at all. 2:14 Section 118: according to bbref it’s pronounced JUH-rel. GET IT TOGETHER LONGEHAGEN 2:14 Eric A Longenhagen: You spelled my last name wrong so you get it together. 2:14 Jacob: are players drafted this year – available for trade now? or have they not changed that rule? 2:15 Dave Cameron: No, you can’t trade just drafted guys until after World Series. 2:16 TBJESE: Bruce deal being reworked: problem with medicals per Rosenthal 2:16 Dave Cameron: Medicals on one of the throw-ins. 2:16 Dave Cameron: Shouldn’t be a huge problem. 2:17 Pete: How many teams would pay $62M for Moncada if they could have a do-over? 2:17 Dave Cameron: All of the ones with the cashflow available. 2:17 Dave Cameron: He’s clearly worth more than that now. 2:17 Mike T.: Couldn’t you just name a PTBNL and trade a just drafted player? Announce it after the WS. 2:18 Dave Cameron: No, they closed that loophole. 2:18 Elton: Herrera+D’Arnaud for Lucroy is the rumor. The Mets need to add how much more to that? 2:19 Eric A Longenhagen: If we’re evaluating it compared to the package they would have gotten from CLE, probably one more piece. 2:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Unless MIL values proximity to the Majors over quantity. 2:20 Ben: Eric, do you think Grant Holmes has the ceiling of a #3 starter? 2:20 Dave Cameron: Okay, I’m taking a bit of a chat break. August Fagerstrom is going to come hang out and co-chat with Eric. 2:20 august fagerstrom: Hello! 2:21 august fagerstrom: is Bork here? 2:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Ceiling, yes. I have a 50 FV on him now. Generally view the stuff as that of a #3/4, non-zero chance the changeup and/or curveball outpace my projection, but also think he hasn’t thrown strikes for two years and that concerns about his control are valid. 2:21 Bogey: What’s up with Alex Bregman? When does he start hitting? 2:22 Elton: August: Do you think the Indians will make any more moves? Should they? 2:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Baseball is really hard and that kid is learning new defensive positions on the fly. It’ll be fine, long term. Not great for him to be struggling in a playoff race, though. Hope HOU is patient and doesn’t do anything that mires his long term devo. 2:22 august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think they add some sort of utility/bench-type bat. Steve Pearce almost makes too much sense to not happen 2:22 Scott: More prolonged metaphors, Fagerstrom. MORE. Waiting for an entire article that’s just a prolonged one. Sorry you wasted that cooking one. 2:22 august fagerstrom: Not wasted! Ended up leaving it in anyway, as I realized it still worked after the fact 2:23 august fagerstrom: Will Smith to the Giants, per Passan! 2:23 august fagerstrom: Let’s check and see if that velo’s come up at all since the last time I looked 2:24 august fagerstrom: 91 in his last outing! Not graet 2:24 august fagerstrom: or great 2:24 Steve: Does CLE make a move for another catcher after lucroy deal fell through? 2:25 august fagerstrom: Doubt it. I don’t think Norris/Suzuki are any better than Perez 2:25 drassel: do you think Votto can produce at the same level without Cozart and Bruce in the lineup ? 2:25 Ben: Matt Duffy for Jake Odorizzi, who says no? Samardzija’s been bad and Nuñez can play 3B with Arroyo in the wings. 2:25 august fagerstrom: yeah, Joey Votto isn’t relying on Zack Cozart to be an amazing hitter. 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure Tampa does that. They’re kinda kicking back and waiting for someone to offer them the Louisiana Purchase for each of their arms. 2:26 Michael Scarn: Asked this to Dave but didn’t get a response…would you guys consider the trade deadline to be lit at this point? 2:26 Eric A Longenhagen: For me, yes, it is objectively lit. 2:26 august fagerstrom: Confirmed: lit. 2:27 august fagerstrom: Shocked Dave didn’t respond to that. 2:27 Jim leyland: Are the pirates sunk for the season? What move realistically can happen that will keep them in the hunt? 2:27 august fagerstrom: They’re not gonna sell from the future for this season. 2:27 august fagerstrom: If they get in, they get in 2:29 Patrick breecher: If he’s traded Do you think puig be moved to a contender with his locker room issues 2:29 august fagerstrom: There hasn’t been one of those in a couple years, right? Everything I’ve heard lately is that he’s become a good teammate. 2:29 Bob: How did Reddick’s value change? 2:30 august fagerstrom: Not sure when this is relative to, but he got hurt again and seems to have lost the brunt of his defensive value over the last couple years 2:30 Scott: Bickford and Susac for Will Smith? Seems like a huge overpay. 2:30 august fagerstrom: Bickford for Smith, wow 2:30 august fagerstrom: and Susac 2:31 M.O.: Wasn’t the Louisiana Purchase actually really cheap 2:31 august fagerstrom: FLEECED EM 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Bickford has been 89-92 with a 50 slider and plus command. Barely threw a changeup as an amateur so that pitch is behind. Not sure why so many are in love with him. 2:31 Joe, Esq.: If the Indians get Pearce, do you think that Uribe becomes a roster casualty? Or will he get a visit from good ol’ General Cramping? 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Plus, there might be some medical stuff going on there, Toronto didn’t sign him back in 2013 for a reason. 2:32 august fagerstrom: Uribe and Almonte are the guys on the bubble for sure 2:32 august fagerstrom: Which one would go depends how much Indians believe in Pearce’s ability to play multiple positions 2:32 Chris: Lots of Dodgers Rays chatter in the last week or so…with Reddick now in LA, think a Puig and a prospect (Austin Barnes comes to mind for me) could get Archer?? 2:32 august fagerstrom: Morosi literally just tweeted as you asked this that Dodgers/Rays still talking pitching, so 2:33 Erik: How important is time at the deadline? If a team has just made one trade, does that make them less likely to make another, simply because their phones have been busy the past few hours? 2:33 august fagerstrom: Lotta people working on these things. It’s not like they can’t be working two or more trades at once 2:36 august fagerstrom: Dodgers reportedly also targeting Forsythe from TB in addition to pitching 2:36 august fagerstrom: Something tells me LAD is gonna pull off at least one more blockbuster before this day is over 2:36 J.D. : Doesn’t Susac suggest a Lucroy to Texas trade since they weren’t offering a catcher back? 2:36 august fagerstrom: What Olney seems to inferring, not that it should be a huge shock 2:36 Patrick breecher: What kind of haul would puig fetch doesn’t sound like there to interested in him anymore anyone else think he could benefit from a fresh start on a new team 2:37 august fagerstrom: Lots of people are asking about Puig’s trade value, and my answer is I literally have no idea. At all. 2:37 august fagerstrom: I would guess it varies wildly from team to team. Moreso than almost anyone, I’d guess 2:37 august fagerstrom: Rosenthal: “#Astros working on deals big and small. Number of possibilities in play.” 2:37 august fagerstrom: Frontrunner for most non-revelatory rumor of the year? 2:39 Elton: Which team is least active? I feel like I hear nothing about the Rockies and Angels. 2:39 august fagerstrom: just wait until the Angels trade trout at 3:59 2:39 august fagerstrom: I just do not understand the Beltran-Indians rumors at all 2:40 Peter: how did you get the name August? 2:40 august fagerstrom: great-grandfather: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Fager 2:41 Drew: “Experts” dont believe Teheran is worth top prospects Moncada or benditendi, why not? what is the knock on Teheran? 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Saying Teheran is not worth one of baseball’s top prospects does not imply that Teheran sucks. But I’m not trading potential stars for a league average starter. 2:43 Erik: How does a PTBNL work? 2:43 sn4k3rjaker: I’m at work, and unfortunately can’t do much more than half-watch this chat. Are there any rumblings of the Twins doing anything more? I’d like to see them sell everything that’s over 24 and not bolted down… 2:43 august fagerstrom: Santana to the Blue Jays has been rumored 2:43 august fagerstrom: Blue Jays seem real likely to add a starter, whether Santana or Hellickson or otherwise 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Re PTBNL: A few different ways. My favorite is when teams agree on a list of guys eligible to be “Named Later” and then the acquiring team scouts those guys really hard for a few months while deciding which one they like best. 2:44 august fagerstrom: man, this Jay Bruce deal really sounds like it has the potential to fall through. would be kind of amazing 2:45 august fagerstrom: three times! 2:45 august fagerstrom: impossible to trade 2:46 David: Dodgers had to make Reddick-Hill move only if they had something lined up for Puig, right? 2:47 august fagerstrom: I mean, Reddick/Pederson/Puig can all fit in one outfield. It’s not like Howie Kendrick has to play everyday. 2:47 august fagerstrom: Certainly makes it more likely, though 2:48 august fagerstrom: Indians-Rays trade. Must be Pearce 2:48 august fagerstrom: and Beltran to Rangers 2:48 august fagerstrom: Both make sense 2:49 august fagerstrom: Oh? Not Pearce! Brandon Guyer to Indians 2:49 august fagerstrom: Wow, Yankees got Dillon Tate for Beltran 2:50 Nimish: Buster Olney ?@BusterEPSN 6m6 minutes agoSource: Odorizzi/Forsythe to Dodgers. Puig/Verdugo plus low level prospect to Rays. 2:50 august fagerstrom: Friends don’t let friends get duped by fake accounts. 2:51 august fagerstrom: It’s Tate+ for Beltran?! 2:51 august fagerstrom: That’s… that’s a lot, right? 2:52 august fagerstrom: Eric? 2:52 The Dude of NY: August, how did the “storm” get added to Fager? 2:52 august fagerstrom: it was always Fagerstrom, he shortened it to Fager for the Olympics 2:53 august fagerstrom: Man, Yankees rebuild has been pretty sweet. 2:53 august fagerstrom: One-week rebuild 2:53 august fagerstrom: Why don’t all teams do it that way? 2:53 A. Reitz: Because not all teams have 2 of the top 5 relievers in baseball. 2:53 august fagerstrom: Fair point 2:54 august fagerstrom: They should, though, 2:54 HugoZ: By which metric is Teheran a “league-average” starter? 2:54 august fagerstrom: Projected ERA/FIP 2:54 JZ: Why does Cle need Brandon guyer? Late inning defense for the awful outfield? 2:55 august fagerstrom: Platoon with Chisenhall in RF 2:55 Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, a bird flew into our sun room and our cats…well…it’s bad. What am I reacting to? 2:57 Matt: Does anyone know if Beltran had to approve TEX or were they not on his limited NTC? 2:57 august fagerstrom: not on it 2:57 Avi: Who did the cats give up to acquire said Bird? 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: Their innocence. 2:58 steveo: Is Dillon Tate any good 2:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah. Certainly looked the part of a top 5 pick when I saw him last year at regionals. Dbacks were considering him at 1-1 for a while. Regression this year is alarming, though. 3:03 Billy Beane: Trade deadline day is better than Christmas, right? 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: If your fanbase thinks they’ve acquired some kind of savior then I guess. 3:04 EbenezerBatflip: Hello, did this chat end? 3:04 Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’m just seeing question like this: 3:04 Zach: Why not trade Betances now?! 3:04 Zack: Beltran to Rangers? For who? 3:04 august fagerstrom: Lucroy/Gallo sounds close 3:04 Fan: Who won the Giants Brewers trade? 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Which aren’t exactly jumping off points for interesting analysis. 3:05 Scuba Steve: Can you tell me a bit about Nimmo? Line drive, high OBP kind of guy? 3:05 Bezel: Is Miller going to close in Cleveland? 3:05 Eric A Longenhagen: Some average tools but poor baseball instincts and overall not an explosive athlete. 3:06 Jackie: Would you prefer Espinoza or Holmes/Montas/Cotton 3:06 august fagerstrom: Both guys (Miller/Allen) have always been totally non-committal when it comes to roles, and so is Tito. My guess, though, since neither has any platoon splits, is that Miller gets the 9th/higher-leverage spots 3:06 august fagerstrom: Though wouldn’t surprise me to see Tito bring him in for the 8th with lefties up and give Allen the 9th 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Easy for me to say Espinoza because I love upside but, if you want to mitigate risk by spreading things out over a larger sample of prospects and prefer the Dodgers package, I get that. 3:07 Dock Ellis: So Hellickson’s suitors are the Tigers and….? 3:07 august fagerstrom: Blue Jays 3:10 Joe: Wouldn’t Pomeranz’s value be higher an hour before the deadline? Confusing why the Padres would trade an asset a full month ahead of the deadline? 3:10 august fagerstrom: They’re probably happy with what they got 3:11 august fagerstrom: Not like Pomeranz couldn’t have broken over the last month 3:11 august fagerstrom: They had an offer they liked, so they took it 3:11 Dock Ellis: Btw August: Saw Radiohead in NYC both nights last week. OMFG they’re awesome. 3:11 august fagerstrom: the best 3:11 Chris: Love to get your best guess, absolute surprise under the radar MAJOR acquisition to happen in the next hour. Like Chris Sale to DC… 3:11 august fagerstrom: Puig to somebody 3:12 Drew: Kemp wrote an article today saying how pumped he is to be in Atlanta, a team he cheered for as a kid.. Can Kemp get back to MVP play or even close to it? 3:12 august fagerstrom: lol 3:12 august fagerstrom: no 3:13 Richie: How long until Astros have to move someone with crowded infield? Next hour, or this winter? 3:13 august fagerstrom: These things tend to work themselves out. 3:13 august fagerstrom: Having too many good players isn’t exactly a problem 3:13 Dan Duquette: Damnit, was the deadline today? 3:13 august fagerstrom: No worries! You got Wade Miley! 3:13 Elton: I don’t understand the Mets trade for Bruce. Don’t they have Legares and four corner outfielders now? 3:13 august fagerstrom: yep 3:14 Drew: do either of you have anything positive to say about the braves? Teheran is average. Kemp sucks.. anything positive at all? for god sakes 3:14 august fagerstrom: You say that like it’s a hot take that Matt Kemp sucks 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve considered going to Florida for instrux specifically to sit in Orlando for several days and see their guys because the system is so good. Do you feel better? 3:15 Billy Heywood: The key is platoon splits. Before the trade, the Mets had a lefty hitting, poor defensive right fielder. Now they have Jay Bruce! 3:15 august fagerstrom: excellent point 3:15 Scott: I’m sorry that my fellow Braves fans have a tendency to be a bit dramatic. We’re just not used to being this bad. 3:15 august fagerstrom: shouldn’t be for long~ 3:15 august fagerstrom: squiggly supposed to be an exclamation point 3:17 M&M: P.S. Juan Uribe DFA’d. :'( 3:17 august fagerstrom: Good dude. Not a great player anymore. 3:18 M&M: MIL and NYY likely to be REALLY good in about 3-5 years, yeah? Anyone else seriously increased their future value this deadline? 3:18 Eric A Longenhagen: San Diego, especially if you count July 14th onward as “Deadline Season” and I guess I would. 3:18 august fagerstorm: ya Mccann 3:18 august fagerstrom: imposter! 3:20 Wily Dames: So are these prospects (Lukes and Salinas) the Rays got back anyone you’ve heard anything about? 3:20 august fagerstrom: nope! 3:21 august fagerstrom: sorry I’m going in and out sometimes, guys. As you can understand — bit of a hectic time right now 3:21 Guest: Huston Street has looked just awful to this point, could the Angels get anything of note for him? 3:21 august fagerstrom: Doubtful. When the other shoe drops on the FIP-beater guys, especially at 32, it’s hard to see much of anything 3:21 august fagerstrom: I’d be fascinated to see what a Cam Bedrosian package looks like, though 3:22 JJ: What do you think of the Reds front office’s ability to evaluate players in their trades in the last couple of years? 3:22 august fagerstrom: I don’t love their focus on the close-to-the-majors, high-floor guys 3:22 Biscuit: So does the addition of Susac in MIL and Beltran in TEX mean there is a good chance the two clubs are close to a deal with Lucroy and Gallo? 3:22 august fagerstrom: All signs point toward yes 3:22 J: Puig a fit for left on the Red Sox? 3:23 august fagerstrom: That’s Benintendi’s spot 3:25 Paul: Why would Moore help the Giants? Who would they bench? 3:25 august fagerstrom: Cain 3:25 august fagerstrom: Hasn’t been a big league starter in two years 3:25 Guest: Back to Huston Street, whats the value on Joe Smith? Another guy withperipherals heading in the wrong direction. Both guys have similar K/9s at this point yet teams seem to be more interested in Smith. 3:26 august fagerstrom: Interesting thing on Smith is the velo isn’t down, the walks aren’t noticeably up, and the swinging strike rate is actually up. 3:26 august fagerstrom: No idea where the K’s have gone 3:26 august fagerstrom: Without having seen him pitch often or doing too deep a dive, I’d wager he’s probably not as broken as he might appear 3:26 august fagerstrom: And with his track record, he’s got value 3:26 august fagerstrom: Moreso than Street, I’d think 3:27 Richie: What leads to pitchers beating their FIP (Teheran), and why are we also so sure “the shoe will drop”? 3:27 august fagerstrom: Weak contact/good defense/pop-ups, mostly 3:28 august fagerstrom: And it’s not so much that you should always expect the other shoe to drop. It’s that when it *does*, there’s nothing left to see. Like, Street’s never looked inciting based on his peripherals, but he was able to limit hits and strand runners. Now that he’s not doing that, he doesn’t even have strikeouts/walks/grounders to fall back on. 3:28 august fagerstrom: Same with Matt Cain 3:29 august fagerstrom: As soon as he stopped preventing homers at an absurd rate, there was just nothing left to like because he never missed bats or got grounders or had elite command 3:30 Lou: Yanks done, or still teams interested in McCann, Nova, Gardner… 3:30 august fagerstrom: Nova/Pirates is a thing Rosenthal just tweeted 3:30 MH: When’s the right time for Red Sox to call up Benintendi and/or Moncada? 3:30 august fagerstrom: Benintendi real soon, Moncada sometime next year? 3:30 Smokey: Hellickson getting traded? 3:30 august fagerstrom: Guessing Blue Jays 3:31 Rick: If you had to guess, what percentage of baseball fans know of metrics like wRC+ or ISO? 3:31 august fagerstrom: wRC+ is definitely getting out there more, which is great. It’s like the perfect stat 3:31 august fagerstrom: Still an overwhelming minority, but seeing team accounts/major beat writers use it is a big step 3:31 TengoPreguntas: Does Texas trading Tate so quick say something about what they think he is going forward 3:31 august fagerstrom: I mean, his stock has definitely fallen 3:32 Lear: It seems unlikely the Twins are all of a sudden going to trade all their assets in the next 30 min. Why oh why have they not been more active in cleaning house? 3:32 august fagerstrom: Your guess as good as mine 3:32 august fagerstrom: Probably because they just don’t have that many interesting assets, though? 3:32 august fagerstrom: They’re an interesting team because they’ve got *so* many interesting young pieces, and then a whole lot of nothing. Plouffe getting hurt hosed them 3:33 august fagerstrom: Guess I don’t fully understand why there wasn’t more of an effort to move Dozier 3:33 Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! 3:34 Paul Swydan: I’m tagging in for August, so he can go write. 3:34 Paul Swydan: Bye August! 3:34 august fagerstrom: hey Paul! 3:34 august fagerstrom: bye everyone! 3:34 Paul Swydan: So, you guys need to be patient with me. I just walked in off the beach. 3:34 Paul Swydan: But let’s do it. 3:34 Rick: Is the extra WC spot one of the best things to happen to baseball recently? 3:35 Paul Swydan: No my friend, I abhor the extra wild card, but I am in the distinct minority. A full 1/3 of teams make the postseason now, which I think dilutes the whole process. 3:35 jon: NYY probably avoid the luxury tax next season. Couple that with the 1.5x multiplier on the cash they’ve unloaded so far, and they have made a good business move along with good baseball moves. 3:36 Paul Swydan: As I wrote yesterday, the Yankees have had a very good week. I am very impressed at their ability to pivot right into the sorts of trades that they rarely, if ever, make. 3:36 Oliver: How is Jeff Locke still in baseball let alone a rotation piece for a *contender*? 3:36 Paul Swydan: Life is unfair? 3:37 Reds: Why are we terrible at making trades? 3:37 Paul Swydan: Because the person in charge of your team’s baseball operations stopped learning about baseball a decade ago. 3:37 Paul Swydan: Life gets infinitely harder once you’ve decided you have it all figured out. 3:37 Hannah Hochevar: This Yankee turnaround is not fair. They’re being rewarded for their failures!!! 3:37 Paul Swydan: I laughed. 3:38 Hmm: Are the Yanks setting themselves up to outbid the world for Harper in a couple of years? 3:38 Paul Swydan: I actually think that is an overrated explanation for what they’re doing. 3:39 Paul Swydan: With Sabathia and A-Rod coming off the books after 2017, they were always going to have plenty of cash at the ready a year in advance of Harper hitting free agency. I think they’re just making good baseball moves right now. 3:39 Hmm: Oh oh I know! The Yanks are collecting prospects to throw at the Angels for Trout! 3:40 Paul Swydan: Now, this is an explanation I can get better behind. Can you imagine if the Yankees ended up with Harper AND Trout? It’d be just like the episode of Seinfeld where George figured out a way for the Yankees to get Griffey and Bonds and it wouldn’t even be that hard! 3:41 Eric: Herrera going to the Reds confirmed by Ken Rosenthal. 3:42 Paul Swydan: The Mets must know something about Dilson Herrera that we don’t, because I can’t say that I care for that trade on the surface. 3:42 Guest: Why can’t we mention Machado as well here. The O’s have no way of keeping him. Seems exactly like something the Yanks would do 3:42 Paul Swydan: Man, the Machado fans really get up in arms when you ignore them. 3:43 Paul Swydan: For the record, I don’t agree. Peter Angelos is a VERY wealthy man, and if he wants Manny Machado on his team, he is going to make sure he stays. 3:43 Tim: Is this a defining point in David Stearns career as the Brewers GM? If Lucroy isn’t traded, is it a failure? 3:43 Paul Swydan: Um, no. They’ll still be able to trade him in the offseason. In fact, Lucroy will probably be more amenable to a trade in the offseason, because then he won’t have to build relationships with pitchers on the fly. 3:43 EbenezerBatflip: Big Stein needs his calzone! 3:44 Paul Swydan: He just can’t be over there floppin’ and twitchin’! 3:44 Guest: All while he was napping under his desk! 3:44 Paul Swydan: That desk was a marvel. I tried that at my desk at the Rockies once, but I couldn’t get it to work. 3:44 Trevor Gobble: This is the Trade Deadline Chatapalooza not the Yankees Deadline Chatapalooza…. 3:44 Paul Swydan: Gobble gobble 3:44 JoJo: Paul, congrats on getting your messages to post. None of mine are getting posted. 3:44 Paul Swydan: Oh man, someone give JoJo a high five. 3:44 Frank Constanza: HOW THE HELL COULD YOU TRADE JAY BUHNER! 3:45 Paul Swydan: HE HAD A ROCKET FOR AN ARM! 3:45 JoshP: Bruce has a team option for 2017, Grandy is under contract through 2017, Conforto still has infinite team control, Lagares is under contract, Cespedes has his player option. How do the musical chairs work out for next season? 3:46 Paul Swydan: One of the ways it will work out is that Cespedes is probably long gone after the season, but beyond that, I don’t know. They must be very worried about Lagares’ production going forward. 3:46 Paul Swydan: Sorry, Lagares’ injuries. 3:46 Frank Costanza: Jerry, it’s Frank Costanza. Steinbrenner’s here. George is dead. Call me back. 3:46 jon: Why did the Mets give up Herrera for Bruce but not Lucroy? That strikes me as dumb. 3:47 Paul Swydan: Well obviously I am not a party to trade talks, but one would have to assume that the Brewers were less impressed with the Mets package of assets than were the Reds. 3:47 Reds: So…..are we still bad at trades? 3:47 Paul Swydan: Let’s put a moratorium on that. 3:47 Gabe: Dilson+ for Bruce seems like an overpay. He was 2B of the future but they never gave him a chance—and now trade him for an aging OF coming off some bad seasons? Makes no sense, right? 3:48 Paul Swydan: It makes sense if you view it through the prism of 2016 only. They weren’t willing to call up Herrera, and they need offense. So, swapping him out for Bruce makes sense in that respect. Beyond that, I’m having a tougher time with it. 3:48 Bezel: Are the Rockies making a mistake by standing pat? 3:49 Paul Swydan: If there was an opportunity for them to trade Blackmon and get a good pitching prospect back, then yes, I think they did. I’m not convinced that that is the case, however. 3:49 Toki: I’d rather have Machado and Trout…. Never been a Harper guy, just seen an abrasive personality that I wouldn’t want to deal with. 3:49 Paul Swydan: You know who else had abrasive personalities? The two best hitters who ever lived, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. 3:49 Mike: Dodgers acquire Jesse Chavez per Rosenthal. Thoughts? 3:51 Paul Swydan: It’s curious in that the Blue Jays need all the pitching they can get, but perhaps at this point they think Chavez just needs a change in scenery. His homers have been way up this year, and while his xFIP is just as healthy as ever, perhaps the Jays see Skydome as his bugaboo and just need to get him out of there. 3:51 Matt: Len Tulipthall says Nova to the Rangers for Gallo 3:51 Paul Swydan: Did you make that name up? I’ve never heard of that person before. 3:52 JTT: Is there an option for “I love harper and his hair makes me ask myself uncomfortable questions about my own sexuality but I would be very angry if he signed with the Yankees” 3:52 Paul Swydan: Not yet, but I will keep that in mind for future versions of this poll. 3:52 Mostra: Paul, couldn’t you say the same about Lerner re: Trout? 3:52 Paul Swydan: Harper plays for Lerner, not Trout. 3:52 Paul Swydan: But yes, absolutely. 3:53 Paul Swydan: The difference is that Harper doesn’t seem as likely to be swayed by his owner, but to be fair I have never spoken to either player and can’t say for sure. 3:53 Square: So is there a baseball somewhere that’s slowly dropping to to zero, counting down the trade deadline like it’s Time’s Square? 3:53 Paul Swydan: That would be so awesome. 3:53 Art Vandelay: Re: Yanks pivot – appreciating it was small potatoes vs the other trades, where do you stand on the Campos/Clippard move? Purely Cashman trying to appease the Steins? 3:54 Paul Swydan: No, I think that it was a good trade on the down low. Clippard will help them hold the fort until they are ready to be better. 3:55 Dave Dombrowski: Jon Daniels offered me Gallo and Brinson for David Ortiz. Do I accept and not leave Fenway until next October at risk of an angry Boston mob shaving off my silver mane!? 3:55 Paul Swydan: No, that is an unacceptable trade. 3:55 Matt: Is Bruce even a substantial upgrade over Nimmo? 3:56 Paul Swydan: He’s a more bankable upgrade. Substantial….maybe. 3:56 Maxamuz: Are you a Jimmy Buffett fan? 3:56 Paul Swydan: Um, the only Jimmy Buffett song I know is “Cheeseburger in Paradise,” because when I worked at Fenway it was one of the songs in the regular pregame rotation. 3:57 JD: Rangers getting lucroy according to ken rosenthal, so now whats the trade youre looking forward to in the next 10 minutes 3:57 Paul Swydan: A Tampa Bay pitcher 3:57 Jim Abbot’s Nub: Bickford and Susac for Will Smith is a bit much huh? I know the packages the Yankees got for Chapman and Miller but cmon… Will Smith?? 3:57 Paul Swydan: Will Smith is marvelous. He was hurt earlier in the year IIRC, but he’s really good. 3:57 Santos: I will never understand people 3:58 Paul Swydan: They’re the worst! 3:58 Josh: How many world series did ted williams and barry bonds win? 3:59 Paul Swydan: LOL. You’re right. Ted Williams’ abrasive personality is completely the reason that his owner was a racist prick who refused to sign Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson. That was ALLLLLLLLL Ted Williams’ fault. 3:59 rustydude: Paul, how do you rate the Indians. You like them to win the AL Central and advance a round or two in the playoffs? I’m asking you since August is probably biased. 3:59 Paul Swydan: I like the Indians a lot. I think they probably do take the AL Central. I’ll hold off on postseason prognostication though. 4:00 termel sledge: Hector Santiago to the Twins! All in, right? 4:00 Paul Swydan: Clear hearts, full stomachs, taco time. That’s how that saying goes, right? 4:00 Charlotte the bassador: THERE IS A LOT HAPPENING AND I CANT KEEP TRACK. At least I’m not a Mets fan tho. LOL 4:00 Paul Swydan: That’s where I’m at, basically. 4:01 J.D.: Joey Gallo + Chris Carter + Domingo Santana: over/under 9000 strikeouts? 4:01 Paul Swydan: That’s just more time to get up and get a beer. 4:02 Shirtless George Brett: Passan says no Gallo in Lucroy deal. 4:02 Paul Swydan: Boy I wish he’d make up his damn mind. 4:02 Trevor Gobble: Nolasco to Angels, Hector Santiago to Twins 4:02 Paul Swydan: Rob Antony wanted to make sure he passed his audition, I guess. 4:03 Jeff in Allston: would love a meme of your twitter avatar/the sandlot character and the text says “it’s not neccessary” ala your seatgeek read. would make me very happy 4:03 Paul Swydan: Wait, was Carson chatting earlier? 4:03 Adam: Cubs get Joe Smith per Olney. 4:03 Paul Swydan: That is a very crowded bullpen in Chicago, methinks. 4:03 Mark: Seems like Lucroy + Jeffress to Rangers for at least Brinson and Ortiz. 4:04 Paul Swydan: I wish we just knew the full parameters of these deals already. I mean, it’s 4:04. Gheesh. 4:05 Paul Swydan: If it’s just Brinson and Ortiz, that feels light, especially with the Rangers also getting Jeffress. 4:06 James: You guys going to comment on the trades happening right now or… 4:06 Paul Swydan: Trying, James. I’m trying. 4:06 ASG: Who closes in Tex, Dyson or Jeffress? 4:07 Paul Swydan: They’re both of similar quality. My hope would be that they don’t nail down one of them as the closer, but if you’re forcing me to choose, I’ll say they stick with Dyson for now. 4:08 Jose: Luis Ortiz and Lewis Brinson going to Milwaukee, Lucroy and Jeffress to Texas. Does that feel like a light return for Lucroy and Jeffress? 4:08 Paul Swydan: It definitely does. I’ve been low man on Brinson for a bit though, so I suppose I’m biased. 4:08 Mike: Smith and Jeffress gone, is Thornburg the new closer for the Brewers? 4:09 Paul Swydan: I would assume so, unless he got traded and we just haven’t heard about it yet. 4:09 Bob Sacamano: Reports coming out now that Nimmo isn’t in the Bruce deal. If this is true can we really believe anything we hear now? 4:09 Paul Swydan: I think with as crazy a day as it seems to have been, that we need to avoid jumping to conclusions until we have the full trade terms set. 4:09 Hal: Nova just traded to Pirates per Heyman. Is Cutch + Marte a good return? 4:10 Paul Swydan: Feels light. That guy McCutchen wasn’t even an All-Star this year. What a bum! 4:10 Maxamuz: I love Tacos. 4:10 Paul Swydan: I also love tacos. 4:10 Hal: Who you got in the Bachelorette tonight? Jordan or Robby 4:11 Paul Swydan: Hal my friend, you are in the wrong chat. 4:11 aaronb: how long after the 4PM deadline can we expect news to trickle in? i’m reloading twitter like mad. 4:11 Paul Swydan: In 2004, we didn’t get word of the Nomar trade until almost 5:30, IIRC. 4:11 Duckrental: Do the Yankees have anybody left to play tonight? 4:11 Paul Swydan: Alex Rodriguez is going to play all nine positions, Bugs Bunny style. 4:11 Bork: WHATS HAPPENING PAUL 4:12 Paul Swydan: ‘Sup Bork 4:12 Guest: Ivan Nova to the Pirates. Another former Yankee has resurgence in Pittsburgh. 4:12 Paul Swydan: That does seem to be a burgeoning trend. 4:12 Steve: If the twins don’t move Santana today, does it happen in August? 4:12 Paul Swydan: Well, he would almost certainly clear waivers in August. Whether he gets moved will probably depend on who else ends up in that pool of players. 4:12 Timothy: Pirates get Ivan Nova. Who is the poor soul who is going to have to write that one up? 4:13 Paul Swydan: (looks around) Crap, it’ll probably be me. 4:13 Ombudsman: Nova to pirates. Cashmoney best GM in baseball? 4:14 Paul Swydan: He’s always been one of the best GMs in baseball, it’s just that sometimes the people above him overrid his decisions. 4:14 Babe Ruth: Who are the 2 best hitters who ever lived, again? 4:14 Paul Swydan: How many black players did you play against again? 4:14 Randy Savage: Hey Paul why is the internet on my phone not working? 4:15 Paul Swydan: Because you haven’t snapped into enough Slim Jims, would be my guess. 4:15 mario mendoza: you guys are breaking stuff better than MLBTR and Rotoworld 4:15 Paul Swydan: We aim to please! 4:16 Guest: Per Sherman, Giants got Matt moore 4:17 Paul Swydan: Matt Moore seems just like the kind of player who ends up being good on the Giants after years of never having been good before. 4:17 Sonny: Beltran trade clears spot for Judge? 4:17 Paul Swydan: I sure hope so. 4:17 Guest: Passan says they traded Pearce also 4:18 Paul Swydan: That Jeff Passan. Good looking and good at breaking trades. 4:18 Maxamuz: would you take a fully stocked taco for a juciy bacon cheeseburger? 4:18 Paul Swydan: Why do i HAVE TO CHOOSE? 4:18 Paul Swydan: oops, caps lock 4:19 Guest: Is Dilson Herrera more desirable in trade than Brandon Nimmo? 4:19 Paul Swydan: To me he is, just based on the defensive position he plays. 4:20 Paul Swydan: Well it looks like Matt Duffy goes east in the Matt Moore trade. So now you know why they wanted Eduardo Nunez. 4:20 JTT: The world NEEDS a carson cistulli chat 4:20 Paul Swydan: Yeah good luck with that. 4:20 Paul Swydan: These following two comments came into the chat back-to-back, and they make me smile. Ready? 4:21 Zorak: Bruce is a substantial upgrade over Nimmo. The Mets still overpayed for a player who does not play a position the team remotely needs. Not mutually exclusive conclusions. 4:21 Maddness: Dilson Herrera for Jay Bruce is a horrible trade for the Mets. The whole reason they let Murphy go was because Herrera was the future, and now they are trading him for Bruce!? Cmon. 4:21 Paul Swydan: I love Mets fans. 4:21 aaronb: I’m surprised McCann didn’t go to the mets or the Indians as a consolation prize for Lucroy 4:21 Paul Swydan: I guess I don’t see why the Yankees need to trade McCann. 4:21 Peter: How am I supposed to get work done right now? 4:21 Paul Swydan: Create a life model decoy of yourself? 4:22 Art Vandelay: Trout may be mellow but if anything Machado is even more abrasive than Harper. 4:22 Paul Swydan: You folks realize that a) they’re all abrasive, they’re professional athletes, and b) I don’t care in the slightest, right? 4:22 Joe: Paul how much do you hate Dave Cameron right now for assigning you to the 4:00 portion of the chat? 4:23 Paul Swydan: Actually I love this, it frees me up from doing real work that the rest of those suckers are doing. 4:23 Tim: Farnsworth had Brinson rated as the highest prospect in the Rangers’ farm system, even above Gallo and Mazara. 4:23 Paul Swydan: I know. Like I said, I don’t see it, but I’ve been wrong before. 4:23 Paul Swydan: Feel to come back in a few years and tell me how wrong I was if he turns into a stud. 4:24 Sameer: Orioles acquire Pearce per Crasnick 4:24 Paul Swydan: You really can go home again. 4:24 Tom: Am I being prisoner of the moment? Or has this been the most exciting action around the trade deadline in a long time? 4:24 Paul Swydan: Ever since the second wild card emerged, it seems the deadlines have all been crazy. 4:25 Paul Swydan: I feel like there is a ton of activity today but outside of Lucroy no one of real consequence has moved. 4:25 Mike: Chris Archer stays with the Rays per Morosi. 4:25 Paul Swydan: Yeah it never made sense tha they would want to trade him. He and Longoria are the only real marketable players they have left. 4:25 Avi: Niese just traded to Mets. 4:25 Paul Swydan: Ha. 4:26 John: What is Steve Pearce’s ROS outlook now that he is back in Baltimore? 4:26 Paul Swydan: Better than it was in Tampa Bay on a rate basis, and we had him down for a .338 wOBA in TB, which is pretty good. 4:26 STEVE PEARCE: With me and Wade Miley, are the O’s unstoppable? 4:27 Paul Swydan: No, but they did well to upgrade around the edges, just like they always do. Dan Duquette makes banana bread out of moldy bananas better than most. 4:27 Matt: You’re talking about 2004 Paul?! If my math is correct, that’s like 100 years ago! 4:27 Paul Swydan: Your math IS correct. 4:27 Joe: Niese for Bastardo says Twitter 4:28 Paul Swydan: Well that’s rich. That’s a nice indictment of the Mets offseason moves in a tight little package. 4:28 Matt: If it only took Brinson/Ortiz to get Lucroy and Jeffrees…I wish the Red Sox would have dangled out at least a combo of maybe Koepch, Devers and maybe Longhi….or better, Ball 4:29 Paul Swydan: Well, to be fair, Brinson was one of their top 3 prospects. None of the guys you just mentioned entered the season as one of Bosoton’s top 3 prospects. 4:29 Paul Swydan: And that’s AFTER they traded Margot. 4:29 Dave Dombrowski: 6 years of Gallo + Brinson > 3 months of Ortiz 4:30 Paul Swydan: I mean, where on earth would they play? If you were talking about pitchers this could be a realistic conversation, but are you expecting Brinson to displace JBJ or Betts? Come on now. 4:30 Rick: Is Longenhagen gone? Lucius Fox thoughts? 4:31 Paul Swydan: I thought he did the right thing guiding Batman around at the end of The Dark Knight even though he thought it was morally wrong. 4:31 Paul Swydan: Gotta stick by your friends, y’know? 4:32 Paul Swydan: As for the real life Lucius Fox, I think he’s an 18-year-old in A ball that is hitting .207 and has a higher OBP than SLG. Might he be great someday? Yes. But that isn’t happening any time soon. 4:32 EccentricChemist: Why did the Giants trade Fox, Duffy, and Shaw for Moore, couldn’t they have gotten a better SP for that price, Moore isn’t that good given his underlying numbers. 4:32 Paul Swydan: It takes two to tango, unfortunately. 4:33 Guest: Niese to the Mets. Rea to the Padres. Return to sender day? 4:33 Paul Swydan: Address unknown. No such person. No such home. 4:33 Matt: How excited are you for terrible Judge/Justus puns? 4:34 Paul Swydan: I’m never excited for puns. Being excited for them ruins all the spontaneous fun of seeing them! 4:34 PJ: Matt Duffy: last year ceiling, or foolish sell low 4:34 Paul Swydan: I think closer to the former than the latter. 4:34 (not that) James: Feel like Coppy kind of (really) blew this trade deadline. 4:35 Paul Swydan: I definitely would have traded Teheran, but on the other hand, they are opening a new ballpark next year, and it’d be nice to have someone competent on the hill for Opening Day. I’m not saying that’s why they didn’t trade him, but if that is the reason I guess I can kind of almost sort of sympathize. 4:36 mario mendoza: Yanks have Sanchez, who really shouldn’t hit any WORSE than mccann at this point 4:36 Paul Swydan: Right, but every team needs two catchers. It’s the one spot where you don’t have to offload a veteran to bring in a prospect. 4:37 Sinking Sox ship: Why did I do nothing? Nobody wanted Melky, D-Rob, Lawrie, Frazier??? Guess it’s another 10 years of total mediocrity. How embarrassing. 4:37 Paul Swydan: They certainly seem conspicous in their absence at the trade deadline, but I’m not convinced that they’re a team in need of a tear down. 4:38 Chris: Which team benefited the most this season for their deals up to this point?? Lots of futures being mortgaged on this season. 4:38 Paul Swydan: I hate to disappoint, but I really need to sit down and have a few hours to digest everything. Certainly the Padres, Yankees and Brewers helped their futures. 4:39 omar207: As a Black man in America in 2016, I just wanted to give a heartfelt thanks to you Paul. People refuse to acknowledge race in a way the prevents productive dialogue, not to mention the learning that comes from it. I’m not advocating that every sports convo devolve to race, just saying that I appreciate that when faced with the question, re: Babe Ruth, you didn’t avoid the unmentionable. You put it out there. That is how we all will progress, from sports talk, to other conversations. Thanks again. 4:39 Paul Swydan: No problem. 4:40 Peter: Who is the best statistician working for fangraphs? 4:41 Paul Swydan: Whoa. That’s a good question. We have a lot to choose from. It’s also not an entirely fair question. Some of our writers, like Dave and Jeff in particular, would probably be better statisticians if that was their sole work purpose, but they are tasked mostly with writing. I’ll default to saying Jeff Zimmerman and David Appelman, but between Bill Petti, Jonah Pemstein and countless others, we are thick with great statisticians. 4:41 Stinky Pete: Wait, that’s not a joke? The Mets really just traded for Niese? What, was Aaron Heilman not available? 4:41 Paul Swydan: Aaron Heilman is always available. 4:42 Bob Sacamano: Are you more shocked that the white sox didn’t move a pitcher than you would be if they did? 4:42 Paul Swydan: It seemed there was some good momentum for them moving Robertson, but I think his is a contract that should clear waivers, so the White Sox probably didn’t need to be rushed into a deal. 4:42 Rob: Why do teams trade for a PTBNL? What is the advantage vs. a straight up trade? 4:43 Paul Swydan: Generally, that they are given extra time for evaluation. Generally how a PTBNL works is that the teams agree on a list of players who can be the PTBNL, and then they hammer out the specific player at a later date. 4:43 Guesto: “…makes banana bread out of moldy bananas better than most” is a 80 sentence and I applaud you. 4:43 Paul Swydan: I’m not going to lie, that one felt really good. Thank you. 4:43 Will: Before this consensus seemed that Yankees had an average farm system. Where do you rank them now? 4:44 Paul Swydan: I’m not a big farm systems ranking guy, but even conservatively, it seems like they should be in the top 7 or 8. 4:44 rustydude: Will the Brewers, Yankees, Padres, and other sellers have 40 man roster issues in the future as their prospects mature and must be placed on 40 day roster or passed thru waivers? 4:45 Paul Swydan: If there’s one thing I’m sure of, it’s that these teams wouldn’t have made these deals if they were sweating those kinds of machinations coming back to bite them. GMs constantly have a magnetic tile board in their offices with their 40-man and every team’s 40-man in their office, the same way they make their draft boards. 4:45 Paul Swydan: (and if it’s not a magnetic tile board they are keeping track of it in some other way) 4:46 Dakota McKee: Paul Swydan for Eric Longenhagen who won the deal? 4:46 Paul Swydan: The side that gets Eric Longenhagen. 4:46 Bob Sacamano: Are you saying batman isn’t real life? 4:46 Paul Swydan: Ssshhhh, we have to keep up the facade for the “normals.” 4:47 Matthew: Given the status of the Astros roster, the moves the Rangers made, and the status of the Mariners roster, it seems standing pat is the worst thing the Mariners could do. Trading Cruz might make the fans grumpy, but the team isn’t realistically competing for the division as currently constructed, and they need a couple major pieces in the next 12 months or so to really justify keeping Cruz. 4:47 Paul Swydan: But that doesn’t mean they needed to overpay for those pieces at the deadline. 4:48 Drew: The Reds traded Frazier and Bruce for second basemen (Peraza and Dilson), while knowing Phillip won’t accept a trade to vacate the position. I’d say the ‘Reds are bad at trades’ position is very much alive and well. 4:48 Paul Swydan: To be fair, A) they’re not obligated to start Brandon Phillips, and B) those two guys can play other positions. 4:48 Steve: Off the top of your head which “buying” team did the best work at the deadline? 4:49 Paul Swydan: Off the very top of my head, I think it’s hard to top getting Lucroy and Jeffress. 4:49 Bezel: Put yourself in Lucroy’s shoes, how much better of a better situation is Texas than Cleveland? 4:49 Paul Swydan: From his personal standpoint, the Rangers have to be the better situation, as they have shown more of a proclivity for actually spending money in the past than has Cleveland. 4:49 Toki: What are the odds the Yankees try to get Trout this offseason by flipping prospects and the young outfielders they have? If they were to pull that off could you see a corresponding signing of Cespedes? 4:50 Paul Swydan: I think that teams have constantly been calling Eppler since he got their GM job asking about Trout, and I wouldn’t expect that to cease at any point in the future. 4:51 Joe McMahon: I loved the Yankees deals, but I wish they would have traded McCann and Gardner too. Gary Sanchez should be up like yesterday and the Yankees have a lot of young OF who could take Gardner’s spot. For example, Tyler Austin doing his best Babe Ruth impression at AAA. I’d love to see him get a major league shot. 4:52 Paul Swydan: You’ll have to forgive me if I’m a little skeptical of Austin’s Triple-A performance this year, given that he’s 24 now and in his second crack at Triple-A. And also because he’s running a .376 BABIP. But yes, the Yankees have great depth right now, and that is what you call one of those GOOD problems. 4:52 Kenny: I’m a Yankees fan…I’m absolutely pumped about these deals we made! 4:52 Paul Swydan: See Joe, be more like Kenny. 4:52 Pole: What deal do you think would be best for the Brewers, the Cleveland vetoed deal or the Texas one? 4:53 Paul Swydan: I asked Dave and he thought the Texas deal was better. And Dave is usually right. 4:53 (not that) James: Sure, except as Cameron (I think) has pointed out, having that opening day starter means almost nothing in the long term. If that’s the reason, then I’m even more disappointed. If we didn’t trade Teheran because the offers were way too weak, that’s fine. But I’m a bit concerned that the FO is becoming irrationally optimistic about next year and prematurely shut off trade talks that might have yielded an overpay (relative to Teheran’s peripherals) as a result. 4:53 Paul Swydan: Again, I don’t disagree with you. I think they should have dealt him. Opening Day 2017 at that ballpark is going to sell out no matter who is on the mound. That’s how Opening Day works. 4:54 Evan Longoria: What does the Matt Duffy acquisition mean for my future as a Ray? 4:55 Paul Swydan: Well that’s the million dollar question, isn’t it? I can’t see how they can trade Longoria, and given that so much of his value comes from his defense, a position switch doesn’t make a ton of sense. So…position switch for Duffy? 4:55 Jake: What do you think of the White Sox lack of action minus the Duke trade? Seems shortsighted even if they don’t want to trade Sale/Quintana. Not a lot of interest in Robertson or even Miguel Gonzalez? 4:55 Paul Swydan: Why would there be trade interest in Miguel Gonzalez? 4:55 Slothrop: The Rangers did well- but would they have been better off giving up Gallo or Mazara for Sale, or something similar? 4:56 Paul Swydan: Nope. 4:56 Alvaro: Should we discount from players that played before interleague games were a thing? Thats half the league you are not seeing. 4:56 Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting question. I’m not sure I have a good answer to that. 4:56 eric: Do teams immediately place everyone on waivers now, or do they give it some time. Do it in batches? 4:57 Paul Swydan: Some teams do it all at once, some do it in batches. In this day and age, it probably makes less of a difference than it used to. 4:57 Lance Harbor: I recently watched Batman v. Superman, and was expecting to be downright disappointed, but I actually ended up liking it. It’s not perfect, but I really didn’t understand 1) why it got slapped with the “plot holes/too complex” label, and 2) why Jesse E. was heavily criticized for his LL portrayal (while bizarre, I actually found it to be an interesting take). 4:58 Paul Swydan: I will agree with you on the Jesse Eisenberg take in that I thought he was one of the *least* things wrong with the movie. But the movie’s plot was at once overly complex AND overly simplistic, and it introduced the Justice League in the absolute worst way possible. It was a travesty of a movie. 4:58 Kvn: Fuck yea, Steve Pearce! Best O’s trade since the last time they traded for/claimed Steve Pearce! 4:58 Paul Swydan: So what you’re saying is you’re not a huge Wade Miley fan? 4:58 Zack: Why did Puig never get moved? Someone has to want that upside, right? 4:58 Paul Swydan: Maybe the Dodgers were never really trying to trade him. 4:59 Moltar: LuCroy has also made it known that he wants to be close to home, which for him is Louisiana. Was a little surprised he was willing to nix the Indians deal and risk being sent to the Mets, but he’s probably thrilled to be in Texas. 4:59 Paul Swydan: He probably is. And, to be fair to the Mets, they are in a major travel hub, and it’s probably easier to get a flight to Louisiana out of NYC than it is Cleveland. 4:59 Shirtless George Brett: Just curious, does that happen alot? Teams calling about guys that they know probably arent available (IE: Trout) just to see what’s up? 4:59 Paul Swydan: Yes, I believe it does. 5:00 Paul Swydan: Well, not calls. Texts. From what I’m told, all the GMs text these days. 5:00 Elton: I once pulled out a crown eating saltwater taffy but I’m eating some today anyway. Somehow this correlates in my mind with the Mets trading for Bruce. 5:00 Paul Swydan: I love Mets fans. 5:00 njs: dahl or benitendi for this year (5×5 redraft). 5:00 Paul Swydan: Dahl is already up, so him. 5:00 Bezel: Somewhat interesting PTBNL fact- When the Indians traded Sabathia to the Brewers they got to choose between Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, and Taylor Green. 5:01 Paul Swydan: One of those things is not like the others. 5:01 Gabriel: Liriano to Jays! 5:01 Paul Swydan: Whoa! 5:01 Paul Swydan: OK, well Dave told me to close the chat, but that is super interesting. Anyone see details? 5:01 Toasty: “you want my prospects? better have that pager number” 5:02 Paul Swydan: If 911 is the pager code for an emergency, what’s the code for trade talk? I immediately thought 406 for Ted Williams’ average. 5:02 Babe Ruth: Two unnamed prospects to the Jays per Davidi. No other reports 5:02 Canada: Hutchinson and others to PIT per Olney 5:02 Paul Swydan: Huh. 5:03 Paul Swydan: Well that’s an interesting challenge trade. I wouldn’t rule out Pittsburgh finding something in Hutchison that they think they can fix. 5:04 Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, I’m unfixable, and may need to go write, so I’m going to close this down. Thanks for all your questions and comments, even the person who thinks Ted Williams and Barry Bonds are garbage. 5:04 Paul Swydan: Until the next trade deadline!