2016 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs in recent years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
While it’s possible that Atlanta might extract two or more wins from other positions around the field this next year by means of platooning, the algorithm inside Dan Szymborski’s computer indicates that there’s only one player likely to surpass that threshold by his own self — namely, Freddie Freeman. The first baseman has recorded declining batting figures over the last three seasons (150 wRC+ in 2013, 141 wRC+ in 2014, 133 wC+ in 2015), but almost all that is a product of fluctuating BABIPs — and even the low end of that range is sufficient to render him a solidly above-average player.

Unfortunately for the 2016 edition of the club, Freeman is the only above-average — and perhaps even just average-average — player on the team. Newly acquired shortstop Erick Aybar is a candidate to provide adequacy — and, given sufficient playing time, young catcher Christian Bethancourt could possibly do that, as well — but the roster offers little else in the way of a reliable source of wins.

Pitchers
The members of Atlanta’s rotation represent greater cause for optimism than than their positional counterparts. Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, in particular, are legitimately useful — and similar, too, in their way. Consider: over roughly the same timeframe, the pair have graduated from top prospects to promising young major leaguers to reliable starters. Each enters his own age-25 season projected to surpass the three-win mark.

As legitimately useful pitchers on a club that’s unlikely to contend, however, Miller and Teheran are also legitimate candidates to get traded. Indeed, Jeff Sullivan addressed that very contingency with regard to Miller yesterday in these pages.

With regard to the bullpen, Jason Grilli and Arodys Vizcaino represent solid options, provided they retain their health. Shae Simmons, who returns from a Tommy John procedure and the attendant rehab, is well-acquitted by ZiPS on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Following a mid-season trade from the Dodgers, Cuban Hector Olivera received his first exposure to the majors in September, recording a roughly league-average batting line over 87 plate appearances. A roughly league-average batting line is what he’s expected to produce in 2016, as well — although, if it’s in left field (as opposed to third base), that’s less helpful.

One of the best projections in the system belongs to a player who’s never appeared in the majors: outfielder Mallex Smith. Acquired by Atlanta around this same time last year, Smith pairs above-average speed and center-field defense with average contact skills. The result: a roughly 1.5-win forecast, according to ZiPS. Promising, that, for a player entering just his age-23 season.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantas, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.