2016 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs in recent years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
While it’s possible that Atlanta might extract two or more wins from other positions around the field this next year by means of platooning, the algorithm inside Dan Szymborski’s computer indicates that there’s only one player likely to surpass that threshold by his own self — namely, Freddie Freeman. The first baseman has recorded declining batting figures over the last three seasons (150 wRC+ in 2013, 141 wRC+ in 2014, 133 wC+ in 2015), but almost all that is a product of fluctuating BABIPs — and even the low end of that range is sufficient to render him a solidly above-average player.

Unfortunately for the 2016 edition of the club, Freeman is the only above-average — and perhaps even just average-average — player on the team. Newly acquired shortstop Erick Aybar is a candidate to provide adequacy — and, given sufficient playing time, young catcher Christian Bethancourt could possibly do that, as well — but the roster offers little else in the way of a reliable source of wins.

Pitchers
The members of Atlanta’s rotation represent greater cause for optimism than than their positional counterparts. Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, in particular, are legitimately useful — and similar, too, in their way. Consider: over roughly the same timeframe, the pair have graduated from top prospects to promising young major leaguers to reliable starters. Each enters his own age-25 season projected to surpass the three-win mark.

As legitimately useful pitchers on a club that’s unlikely to contend, however, Miller and Teheran are also legitimate candidates to get traded. Indeed, Jeff Sullivan addressed that very contingency with regard to Miller yesterday in these pages.

With regard to the bullpen, Jason Grilli and Arodys Vizcaino represent solid options, provided they retain their health. Shae Simmons, who returns from a Tommy John procedure and the attendant rehab, is well-acquitted by ZiPS on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Following a mid-season trade from the Dodgers, Cuban Hector Olivera received his first exposure to the majors in September, recording a roughly league-average batting line over 87 plate appearances. A roughly league-average batting line is what he’s expected to produce in 2016, as well — although, if it’s in left field (as opposed to third base), that’s less helpful.

One of the best projections in the system belongs to a player who’s never appeared in the majors: outfielder Mallex Smith. Acquired by Atlanta around this same time last year, Smith pairs above-average speed and center-field defense with average contact skills. The result: a roughly 1.5-win forecast, according to ZiPS. Promising, that, for a player entering just his age-23 season.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantas, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Freddie Freeman	L	26	1B	610	87	147	32	2	21	84	3	2
Christian Bethancourt	R	24	C	436	46	103	24	1	9	44	8	3
Erick Aybar	B	32	SS	607	73	154	31	4	6	50	13	6
Mallex Smith	L	23	CF	570	69	128	19	7	4	44	46	15
Jace Peterson	L	26	2B	524	58	110	19	6	5	46	17	9
Nick Markakis	L	32	RF	639	73	159	29	1	7	49	2	1
Michael Bourn	L	33	CF	510	54	113	16	6	3	34	16	7
Eury Perez	R	26	LF	411	42	100	14	3	3	28	23	7
Daniel Castro	R	23	SS	548	57	132	20	3	4	42	5	4
Dian Toscano	L	26	LF	467	52	106	14	4	3	37	5	3
A.J. Pierzynski	L	39	C	365	31	91	16	1	7	40	0	2
Hector Olivera	R	31	LF	375	41	86	12	2	9	34	0	0
Cedric Hunter	L	28	LF	458	54	101	23	3	13	55	7	4
Ryan Lavarnway	R	28	C	258	25	55	11	0	4	20	0	0
Nick Swisher	B	34	1B	478	49	94	22	1	13	50	1	1
Luis Mateo	R	26	SS	372	33	80	13	2	4	27	7	4
Sean Kazmar	R	31	3B	337	34	77	18	3	3	30	3	1
Reid Brignac	L	30	2B	339	31	67	14	1	4	26	2	1
Adonis Garcia	R	31	3B	402	43	97	19	2	9	40	4	2
Connor Lien	R	22	CF	471	52	95	16	4	9	41	18	9
Pedro Ciriaco	R	30	3B	294	28	71	12	2	2	23	9	2
Mycal Jones	R	29	RF	343	34	68	15	1	4	27	10	5
Rio Ruiz	L	22	3B	555	56	112	24	2	8	49	2	3
Johan Camargo	B	22	SS	516	50	109	17	5	2	36	5	4
Joey Terdoslavich	B	27	1B	431	49	95	21	2	11	44	2	3
Jordy Lara	R	25	3B	494	50	105	23	3	9	48	1	1
Wil Nieves	R	38	C	104	8	21	5	0	1	9	0	0
Jordan Lennerton	L	30	1B	438	43	84	17	1	10	36	0	1
Brandon Snyder	R	29	1B	276	27	53	13	1	7	24	1	0
Kyeong Kang	L	28	RF	427	43	83	15	3	9	37	2	2
Dustin Peterson	R	21	LF	540	58	107	16	2	11	53	4	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Freddie Freeman	610	12.0%	21.3%	.189	.333	.280	.374	.469	.363
Christian Bethancourt	436	3.4%	20.4%	.128	.294	.249	.274	.377	.283
Erick Aybar	607	4.6%	10.4%	.101	.296	.273	.309	.374	.301
Mallex Smith	570	7.4%	21.1%	.087	.315	.248	.309	.335	.308
Jace Peterson	524	9.0%	19.3%	.098	.290	.237	.309	.335	.294
Nick Markakis	639	8.9%	12.1%	.090	.307	.276	.343	.366	.310
Michael Bourn	510	8.0%	22.7%	.080	.320	.246	.307	.326	.291
Eury Perez	411	4.4%	18.5%	.077	.324	.265	.312	.342	.303
Daniel Castro	548	3.6%	11.3%	.074	.283	.257	.284	.331	.270
Dian Toscano	467	11.3%	12.8%	.075	.296	.259	.347	.334	.308
A.J. Pierzynski	365	3.8%	11.5%	.114	.284	.266	.304	.380	.297
Hector Olivera	375	8.8%	12.8%	.128	.275	.257	.329	.385	.309
Cedric Hunter	458	6.3%	16.8%	.161	.263	.240	.291	.401	.303
Ryan Lavarnway	258	8.9%	20.2%	.100	.288	.238	.310	.338	.286
Nick Swisher	478	11.5%	24.5%	.151	.279	.226	.317	.377	.305
Luis Mateo	372	2.7%	23.1%	.082	.288	.227	.255	.309	.251
Sean Kazmar	337	3.9%	14.5%	.104	.275	.242	.274	.346	.272
Reid Brignac	339	8.3%	22.4%	.093	.280	.221	.290	.314	.267
Adonis Garcia	402	3.2%	16.2%	.130	.281	.253	.279	.383	.288
Connor Lien	471	4.9%	34.4%	.118	.325	.218	.270	.336	.279
Pedro Ciriaco	294	2.0%	19.7%	.078	.309	.253	.271	.331	.266
Mycal Jones	343	7.0%	23.9%	.094	.284	.220	.283	.314	.275
Rio Ruiz	555	8.5%	23.4%	.103	.283	.222	.289	.325	.275
Johan Camargo	516	5.0%	16.7%	.071	.278	.232	.273	.303	.252
Joey Terdoslavich	431	8.1%	24.4%	.148	.301	.243	.304	.391	.302
Jordy Lara	494	4.9%	23.7%	.121	.283	.228	.271	.349	.272
Wil Nieves	104	3.8%	26.9%	.082	.290	.214	.252	.296	.241
Jordan Lennerton	438	9.4%	27.4%	.125	.280	.215	.291	.340	.279
Brandon Snyder	276	6.5%	37.3%	.141	.317	.209	.268	.350	.273
Kyeong Kang	427	6.8%	34.7%	.121	.310	.211	.267	.332	.266
Dustin Peterson	540	5.4%	30.0%	.105	.286	.212	.256	.317	.256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Freddie Freeman	610	6.6	134	1	3.5	Kent Hrbek
Christian Bethancourt	436	3.8	80	4	1.7	Jorge Pedre
Erick Aybar	607	4.3	90	-4	1.7	Bill Russell
Mallex Smith	570	4.1	80	1	1.3	Milt Cuyler
Jace Peterson	524	3.6	80	2	1.0	Jeff Berblinger
Nick Markakis	639	4.7	98	-3	0.9	Jose Vidro
Michael Bourn	510	3.6	77	1	0.8	Tom Goodwin
Eury Perez	411	4.2	83	5	0.8	Reggie Williams
Daniel Castro	548	3.4	71	2	0.7	Manuel Mayorson
Dian Toscano	467	4.2	92	0	0.7	Ken Ramos
A.J. Pierzynski	365	4.1	90	-8	0.6	Brian Harper
Hector Olivera	375	4.6	99	-2	0.5	Todd Betts
Cedric Hunter	458	4.1	91	1	0.5	Barry Bonnell
Ryan Lavarnway	258	3.7	81	-6	0.3	Andy Dominique
Nick Swisher	478	4.1	94	-1	0.3	Ron Santo
Luis Mateo	372	2.7	57	5	0.2	Jose Escobar
Sean Kazmar	337	3.4	72	1	0.2	Eddie Zosky
Reid Brignac	339	3.2	69	2	0.2	Luis Rivera
Adonis Garcia	402	3.9	83	-4	0.2	Mike Cervenak
Connor Lien	471	3.1	68	2	0.2	Wilkin Ramirez
Pedro Ciriaco	294	3.4	67	1	0.1	Marv Breeding
Mycal Jones	343	3.1	67	6	0.0	T.J. Bohn
Rio Ruiz	555	3.2	71	-3	-0.1	Greg David
Johan Camargo	516	2.8	61	0	-0.2	Luis Hernandez
Joey Terdoslavich	431	4.1	93	-3	-0.3	Mike Maksudian
Jordy Lara	494	3.3	72	-5	-0.4	Eric Duncan
Wil Nieves	104	2.6	53	-3	-0.4	Raul Chavez
Jordan Lennerton	438	3.4	76	2	-0.5	Todd Mensik
Brandon Snyder	276	3.3	71	1	-0.5	Paul Felix
Kyeong Kang	427	3.0	66	-2	-1.2	Justin Bowles
Dustin Peterson	540	2.7	59	-1	-1.8	Jon Farrell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Shelby Miller	R	25	32	31	186.0	164	66	18	167	77	72
Julio Teheran	R	25	31	31	197.0	175	57	23	183	86	80
Manny Banuelos	L	25	23	23	115.7	107	55	11	104	54	50
Mike Minor	L	28	21	21	128.0	106	37	18	121	61	57
Bud Norris	R	31	25	24	146.3	131	47	18	145	75	70
Williams Perez	R	25	26	25	133.7	95	48	14	138	68	64
Matt Wisler	R	23	29	28	156.7	123	46	22	162	83	78
Sean Newcomb	L	23	27	27	122.0	133	96	12	106	65	61
Arodys Vizcaino	R	25	48	0	48.0	51	18	4	41	18	17
John Gant	R	23	23	23	126.0	111	53	16	126	68	64
Daniel Winkler	R	26	13	12	62.3	61	22	9	57	31	29
Jake Brigham	R	28	28	15	103.7	73	36	11	108	55	51
Jason Grilli	R	39	39	0	36.0	42	12	3	30	13	12
Ryan Weber	R	25	34	14	105.3	70	18	15	113	56	52
David Carpenter	R	28	45	0	56.7	53	24	4	51	24	22
Shae Simmons	R	25	34	0	34.0	38	16	2	28	13	12
Paco Rodriguez	L	25	47	0	35.7	42	15	4	29	14	13
Jason Frasor	R	38	37	0	31.3	32	14	2	27	12	11
Ian Krol	L	25	61	0	57.0	61	22	6	50	25	23
Mike Foltynewicz	R	23	33	18	114.0	106	56	14	110	63	59
Edwin Jackson	R	32	51	0	55.0	49	22	5	51	25	23
Jason Hursh	R	24	31	19	113.0	66	38	11	124	63	59
Chris Withrow	R	27	26	0	29.3	34	17	3	23	13	12
Tyler Jones	R	26	47	0	55.7	52	25	5	51	26	24
Peter Moylan	R	37	41	0	37.3	31	14	3	37	17	16
Michael Kohn	R	30	40	0	36.7	40	23	4	30	17	16
Kanekoa Texeira	R	30	20	10	71.0	51	34	8	73	40	37
David Aardsma	R	34	46	0	44.3	47	20	5	38	20	19
Jim Johnson	R	33	64	0	64.0	52	22	5	64	30	28
Danny Burawa	R	27	49	2	68.7	67	37	7	62	34	32
Ross Detwiler	L	30	36	6	67.3	48	26	7	72	36	34
Donnie Veal	L	31	38	0	39.0	35	18	4	37	19	18
Brandon Cunniff	R	27	41	0	47.0	48	27	6	42	24	22
Andrew McKirahan	L	26	36	0	44.3	39	15	5	45	22	21
Carlos Fisher	R	33	35	0	44.3	49	29	5	38	22	21
Tyrell Jenkins	R	23	20	20	106.0	67	46	14	114	63	59
Nick Masset	R	34	46	0	43.7	37	22	4	43	22	21
Alex White	R	27	19	13	75.3	52	37	9	79	45	42
Ryan Kelly	R	28	49	0	55.0	50	23	8	53	29	27
Lucas Sims	R	22	23	23	111.3	88	62	15	113	67	63
Matt Marksberry	L	25	41	8	71.0	62	40	10	71	43	40
Mauricio Cabrera	R	22	33	2	44.0	41	33	5	42	27	25
Sugar Ray Marimon	R	27	28	19	112.7	73	46	18	123	71	66
Mitchell Boggs	R	32	30	0	38.7	18	22	5	44	26	24
Victor Mateo	R	26	26	25	139.0	75	58	20	155	88	82
Zach Bird	R	21	24	22	101.0	83	73	14	104	67	63

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Shelby Miller	186.0	791	20.7%	8.3%	.276	3.48	3.71	90	98
Julio Teheran	197.0	831	21.1%	6.9%	.282	3.65	3.85	94	101
Manny Banuelos	115.7	506	21.1%	10.9%	.286	3.89	4.18	100	110
Mike Minor	128.0	542	19.6%	6.8%	.272	4.01	4.11	104	108
Bud Norris	146.3	631	20.8%	7.4%	.300	4.31	4.14	111	109
Williams Perez	133.7	587	16.2%	8.2%	.294	4.31	4.36	111	115
Matt Wisler	156.7	678	18.1%	6.8%	.292	4.48	4.39	116	116
Sean Newcomb	122.0	568	23.4%	16.9%	.295	4.50	4.82	116	127
Arodys Vizcaino	48.0	203	25.1%	8.9%	.287	3.19	3.18	82	84
John Gant	126.0	557	19.9%	9.5%	.297	4.57	4.48	118	118
Daniel Winkler	62.3	266	22.9%	8.3%	.283	4.19	4.33	108	114
Jake Brigham	103.7	455	16.0%	7.9%	.294	4.43	4.29	114	113
Jason Grilli	36.0	150	28.0%	8.0%	.293	3.00	2.91	77	77
Ryan Weber	105.3	447	15.7%	4.0%	.290	4.44	4.37	115	115
David Carpenter	56.7	245	21.6%	9.8%	.292	3.49	3.59	90	95
Shae Simmons	34.0	146	26.0%	11.0%	.295	3.18	3.28	82	86
Paco Rodriguez	35.7	151	27.8%	9.9%	.281	3.28	3.44	85	91
Jason Frasor	31.3	135	23.7%	10.4%	.291	3.16	3.19	82	84
Ian Krol	57.0	243	25.1%	9.1%	.289	3.63	3.55	94	94
Mike Foltynewicz	114.0	508	20.9%	11.0%	.294	4.66	4.50	120	119
Edwin Jackson	55.0	238	20.6%	9.2%	.288	3.76	3.76	97	99
Jason Hursh	113.0	501	13.2%	7.6%	.298	4.70	4.45	121	117
Chris Withrow	29.3	128	26.6%	13.3%	.274	3.68	4.02	95	106
Tyler Jones	55.7	243	21.4%	10.3%	.291	3.88	3.92	100	103
Peter Moylan	37.3	163	19.0%	8.6%	.299	3.86	3.67	100	97
Michael Kohn	36.7	163	24.5%	14.1%	.276	3.93	4.36	101	115
Kanekoa Texeira	71.0	320	15.9%	10.6%	.291	4.69	4.75	121	125
David Aardsma	44.3	191	24.6%	10.5%	.285	3.86	3.79	100	100
Jim Johnson	64.0	278	18.7%	7.9%	.304	3.94	3.68	102	97
Danny Burawa	68.7	305	22.0%	12.1%	.289	4.19	4.28	108	113
Ross Detwiler	67.3	300	16.0%	8.7%	.304	4.54	4.38	117	115
Donnie Veal	39.0	172	20.3%	10.5%	.295	4.15	4.24	107	112
Brandon Cunniff	47.0	210	22.9%	12.9%	.283	4.21	4.44	109	117
Andrew McKirahan	44.3	193	20.2%	7.8%	.303	4.26	3.95	110	104
Carlos Fisher	44.3	200	24.5%	14.5%	.290	4.26	4.38	110	115
Tyrell Jenkins	106.0	478	14.0%	9.6%	.290	5.01	5.09	129	134
Nick Masset	43.7	196	18.9%	11.2%	.302	4.33	4.44	112	117
Alex White	75.3	342	15.2%	10.8%	.292	5.02	4.93	130	130
Ryan Kelly	55.0	241	20.7%	9.5%	.287	4.42	4.60	114	121
Lucas Sims	111.3	509	17.3%	12.2%	.290	5.09	5.17	131	136
Matt Marksberry	71.0	324	19.1%	12.3%	.293	5.07	5.06	131	133
Mauricio Cabrera	44.0	207	19.8%	15.9%	.296	5.11	5.23	132	138
Sugar Ray Marimon	112.7	507	14.4%	9.1%	.288	5.27	5.33	136	140
Mitchell Boggs	38.7	182	9.9%	12.1%	.291	5.59	5.70	144	150
Victor Mateo	139.0	630	11.9%	9.2%	.288	5.31	5.34	137	141
Zach Bird	101.0	480	17.3%	15.2%	.296	5.61	5.67	145	149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Shelby Miller	186.0	7.94	3.19	0.87	110	3.4	Jon Garland
Julio Teheran	197.0	7.99	2.60	1.05	105	3.1	John Burkett
Manny Banuelos	115.7	8.32	4.28	0.86	98	1.5	Matt Whisenant
Mike Minor	128.0	7.45	2.60	1.27	95	1.4	Huck Flener
Bud Norris	146.3	8.06	2.89	1.11	89	1.1	Runelvys Hernandez
Williams Perez	133.7	6.39	3.23	0.94	89	1.0	Jake Dittler
Matt Wisler	156.7	7.06	2.64	1.26	85	0.8	Doug Waechter
Sean Newcomb	122.0	9.81	7.08	0.89	85	0.6	Neal Cotts
Arodys Vizcaino	48.0	9.56	3.38	0.75	120	0.6	Hipolito Pichardo
John Gant	126.0	7.93	3.79	1.14	84	0.6	Jesse Anderson
Daniel Winkler	62.3	8.81	3.18	1.30	91	0.6	Ken Chenard
Jake Brigham	103.7	6.34	3.12	0.95	86	0.5	Elliot Brown
Jason Grilli	36.0	10.50	3.00	0.75	127	0.5	Doug Bair
Ryan Weber	105.3	5.98	1.54	1.28	86	0.4	Chris Holt
David Carpenter	56.7	8.41	3.81	0.63	109	0.4	Mike Schultz
Shae Simmons	34.0	10.06	4.24	0.53	120	0.4	Brad Voyles
Paco Rodriguez	35.7	10.59	3.78	1.01	117	0.4	Thomas Hart
Jason Frasor	31.3	9.20	4.03	0.58	121	0.4	George Caster
Ian Krol	57.0	9.63	3.47	0.95	105	0.3	Clay Rapada
Mike Foltynewicz	114.0	8.37	4.42	1.11	83	0.2	Earl Sanders
Edwin Jackson	55.0	8.02	3.60	0.82	102	0.2	Jason Bullard
Jason Hursh	113.0	5.26	3.03	0.88	81	0.2	Jim Adamczak
Chris Withrow	29.3	10.44	5.22	0.92	104	0.1	Scott Fredrickson
Tyler Jones	55.7	8.40	4.04	0.81	99	0.1	Ryan Baker
Peter Moylan	37.3	7.48	3.38	0.72	99	0.1	Ben Weber
Michael Kohn	36.7	9.81	5.64	0.98	97	0.1	Mike Cook
Kanekoa Texeira	71.0	6.46	4.31	1.01	81	0.1	Trey Hodges
David Aardsma	44.3	9.55	4.06	1.02	99	0.1	Archie Corbin
Jim Johnson	64.0	7.31	3.09	0.70	97	0.1	Bobby Munoz
Danny Burawa	68.7	8.78	4.85	0.92	91	0.0	Andrew Brown
Ross Detwiler	67.3	6.42	3.48	0.94	84	0.0	Joe Beimel
Donnie Veal	39.0	8.08	4.15	0.92	92	-0.1	Joey Eischen
Brandon Cunniff	47.0	9.19	5.17	1.15	91	-0.1	Henry Owens
Andrew McKirahan	44.3	7.92	3.05	1.02	90	-0.1	Jason Sekany
Carlos Fisher	44.3	9.95	5.89	1.02	90	-0.1	Archie Corbin
Tyrell Jenkins	106.0	5.69	3.91	1.19	76	-0.2	Jim Henderson
Nick Masset	43.7	7.62	4.53	0.82	88	-0.2	Jerry Johnson
Alex White	75.3	6.22	4.42	1.08	76	-0.2	Jason Baker
Ryan Kelly	55.0	8.18	3.76	1.31	87	-0.2	Doug Gogolewski
Lucas Sims	111.3	7.12	5.01	1.21	75	-0.2	Nick Skuse
Matt Marksberry	71.0	7.86	5.07	1.27	75	-0.4	Mark Lukasiewicz
Mauricio Cabrera	44.0	8.39	6.75	1.02	75	-0.4	Brett Wayne
Sugar Ray Marimon	112.7	5.83	3.67	1.44	72	-0.7	Joe Law
Mitchell Boggs	38.7	4.19	5.12	1.16	68	-0.8	Mike Sullivan
Victor Mateo	139.0	4.86	3.76	1.29	72	-0.8	Vance Cozier
Zach Bird	101.0	7.40	6.50	1.25	68	-0.9	Joel Santo

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.