What We Know About David Price On the Red Sox
So David Price and the Red Sox have agreed to a seven-year deal worth $217 million, pending a physical that Price will presumably clear with some ease. As part of the terms, Price can opt out after year three, and sometimes pitchers do that, and sometimes they don’t. We’re in a weird place, where this was entirely predictable, for any number of reasons, and at the same time, we’re talking about the biggest pitcher contract in the history of the sport. That shouldn’t be something you just calmly nod at, but though this wasn’t a foregone conclusion, it was at least a popular guess. Price reunited with Dave Dombrowski on a team in need of an ace. Word is Boston blew the competition out of the water, which is what they figured to do.
Writing about these giant free-agent contracts is always a challenge. People want to know, “is it worth it?” and the bigger the contract, and the longer the contract, the more assumptions there are being made. You have to guess a player’s skill, and decline. You have to guess what a win is worth, now, and many years down the road. You have to guess at inflation, and around everything, you have to guess at a team’s success or failure. In the end, you’re left guessing. The teams themselves are left guessing. It’s not like they know the future much better than we do. It’s not like they understand injury risk much better than we do. Numbers are put on paper, and players sign on lines, and, subsequently, life happens. Each contract might turn out to be good, bad, or anywhere in between.
People want answers. There aren’t answers. Not that we know. Years down the road, we’ll all have opinions of the David Price contract with the Red Sox, but we can’t know what those opinions will be. I’m sorry to have to put it like that, but let’s leave this uncertainty behind, shall we? Let’s just focus on what we do know. That’s as much as can be done.
We know it’s a lot of money. The most money for a pitcher yet. And those big numbers dazzle us, and they frighten us, and they make us wonder how any player could ever be worth so much playing a game in a world so troubled. But this is the market, and though few other players will earn a Price-level salary, few other players have Price-level ability, and so the money does logically make sense. This isn’t far from what a reasonable estimate would’ve projected. There are actually ways to make it look like Boston is getting a deal, and while they probably aren’t, again, we’re making assumptions, or guesses. The market of the future is only so predictable.
We know the market changes. Or, we know inflation isn’t steady and consistent. I pulled up the last seven years of opening-day payrolls, just because this is a seven-year contract so I got the number “seven” in my head. Between 2010 and 2011, teams increased spending by just 2%. But between 2013 and 2014, teams increased spending by more than 11%, and between 2014 and 2015, they increased spending by more than 8%. We frequently guess at a 5% rate of inflation, and it’s in the ballpark of being true, probably, but we don’t know what it’ll be. Teams are always spending more. There’s so much money.
We know the Red Sox can afford this. Any ownership group would be able to afford this, but a contract worth $X on Boston is easier to take than a contract worth $X on Miami. The money’s worth the same, of course, but Boston just has more to play with. Over that same seven-year period, the Red Sox have bounced around in the top four of payrolls, and really it’s been going on longer than that; going back further just doesn’t matter. The Red Sox are equipped to deal with a certain amount of dead money, if they have to. Even if Price is overpaid by, say, $5 million a year, that leaves the Red Sox with an “effective” payroll of $5 million less than whatever big number they arrive at. The Red Sox will be fine. They’ll always have money.
We know the opt-out clause shouldn’t be ignored. It’s easy to look at this as seven years and $217 million, but like Dave put it, it’s like a three-year contract with a four-year option, and that’s player-friendly. If Price ends up more than worth the money early on, he’ll go get more. If he runs into trouble, Boston can’t get out of the commitment. People differ on how opt-out clauses should be valued, but you could say this is worth even more than $217 million in a way, and you wouldn’t be wrong.
We know it’s important to consider Boston’s greater circumstance. And I don’t even mean consecutive last-place finishes in a city that doesn’t tolerate that. I mean the Red Sox are said to have a deep farm system, even after the Craig Kimbrel trade, and there’s cost-controlled young talent on the big-league roster as well, and that cost near-certainty helps allow for big contracts like Price’s, because you’re getting bargains at so many positions you can spend big somewhere else. Young players don’t stay cheap, and they don’t always develop like you want them to, but the Red Sox are set up well long-term, so again, that should cushion any eventual problems. Unless Dombrowski keeps trading more prospects for relievers.
We know the Red Sox suddenly project real well for 2016. I shouldn’t say “suddenly” — Price didn’t change the whole picture. But I just looked at the early team WAR projections, based on Steamer and the depth charts, and the Red Sox lead the American League. That can only go so far. Duh. There’s a whole lot of offseason left, and just last year we were touting how well the Red Sox were projected in March. The Mariners, too. The projections had a rough year last year in the AL. But I think this much should be clear: the Red Sox ought to be good. They’re a contender, today. Maybe the best team in the division. So the timing was right for a move like this, even if it’s a bit of an overpay, which isn’t entirely clear. The 2016 Red Sox could win it all. They have a lineup, an ace, and a closer.
We know Price is almost as good as it gets. He’s not Clayton Kershaw, unless we’re really underestimating the difference between leagues, but the last three years, Price ranks third among pitchers in WAR. He’s only gotten stronger, and he’s never had a badly serious DL stint, and over those three years he’s also fourth in innings, not even counting the playoffs. If you prefer the other WAR, he ranks sixth. No one questions whether Price has been an ace. He’s been an ace. Those are the guys most likely to be aces, again, in the near future.
We know Price has some risk factors working in his favor. The miles on his arm might be a problem — he’s unquestionably got some wear and tear. But then, he’s never had a catastrophic injury. He pounds the zone, more than almost anyone else. He throws strikes, more than almost anyone else. He throws fewer breaking balls than almost anyone else, if you consider a cutter a form of a fastball. Price is a strike-throwing command pitcher who uses different types of fastballs to get his strikeouts, and while no one’s ever clear of injury risk as a pitcher, Price could stay healthy. He’s not spinning slider after slider. He’s built like, and he’s been, a workhorse.
We know he could go all Brandon Webb. Between 24 and 29, Webb threw more than 1,300 innings. From 30 on, he threw 4. If you don’t like the Webb example, you could go with the Johan Santana example. It’s less severe, but only by a little.
We know, alternatively, he could go all Roger Clemens. Or Mike Mussina, or Andy Pettitte, or whoever. They were good, and they kept going. They didn’t break down. Whenever you think about seven guaranteed years for an aging starting pitcher, you want to factor in some time lost to injury. Price might not get injured. Cliff Lee is an interesting comp, and he made it to 35 before his arm went. Granted, Price will turn 35 before this contract is up. So the Lee bit didn’t belong in this paragraph, probably. But sometimes durable pitchers stay durable.
We know, from 1979 – 2008, 17 starters threw at least 1,000 innings between the ages of 25 – 29, with an FIP- between 65 and 85. They averaged 26 WAR, more or less matching Price’s last five years. Over the following seven years, those pitchers averaged 1,009 innings, and 21 WAR. Webb is included as just about a big fat zero. Not that you can just toss him out — that’s something that could happen. The Red Sox are paying Price to be worth more than 21 WAR over the life of this deal, but not actually by that much. And if you figure he’s slightly less of an injury risk, it about works out. You can never know what’ll happen. You can guess at how the probabilities shift.
Here’s what we know we’re left with: for a high price, the Red Sox have agreed to sign a guy who’s been one of the very best starting pitchers. Those are the pitchers who tend to remain the very best starting pitchers. With Price, and with Kimbrel, the Red Sox appear to have a team capable of going all the way in the season ahead. Other teams will also be capable of doing that, and the odds will be against Boston, but they wanted to get themselves in position to have a chance, and there are few things you can do to make a bigger difference than sign an ace out of nowhere to drop into an otherwise mediocre rotation. Ace in, mediocrity out. That’s a bunch of wins right there. It’s a little like a shortcut, perhaps, but the Sox can afford this, because they’re the Sox. Every single contract is a gamble. Price isn’t a greater gamble, in terms of individual risk. There’s just an unusual amount riding on one roll of the dice. It’s a boom-or-bust contract, but Dave Dombrowski at least knows his way around these.
Maybe it’ll be worth it, and maybe it won’t. Not a single person knows that answer. Dombrowski just loves himself a luxury item. They’re very high-quality things.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Greinke will have a higher annual salary than price but won’t have as many years
I’m just waiting for that “Felony Fraud” troll to start complaining about the Phillies not ponying up all of Comcast’s big bucks for guys like Price.
Shhhh, don’t wake the demon.
After Ruben Amaro got fired, he was about to go online a gloat, but then he thought “this is a real man, with a family, going out there trying to do his best, and I contributed to the rabble that surely played a role in him losing his job.” He wondered, then, what kind of world he had created for himself that the virtual outcome of a game played by, let’s face it, millionaire interpretive dancers, was important enough to him that it stoked in him a true, passionate, hatred of a fellow human being, who himself also cared most of all about literally the same dancing troupe.
He took some time away from the keyboard. He walked outside again. He had forgotten how good it felt to breathe fresh air and move his body a little bit. The idle observation of athletes was a farce compared to the visceral reality of feeling blood move through every crevice of his body, of sun shining upon him, warming his extremities in a way that the clinical fluorescence of his computer screen could not. He came upon an outlook, over which the suburbs of Philadelphia extended into the setting sun. He could not see the people, only the network of streets and power lines that connected them all, the persistent buzz of the nervous system of the city whose eponymous team had so often occupied his thoughts. He allowed himself, for just a moment, to let go of those thoughts, and to feel a part of this community, the neuron of road he stood upon instead providing the signal.
He was happy.
Darn good stuff. Fangraphs, hire this man!
Seriously, I did like it.
Seriously, me too!
Best “assist” I ever had lol.
Thank you Bip for turning the whole experience of said troll into a positive. Made me happy too.
Plot twist: the troll actually wrote that himself.
DUN DUN DUN!
Ya’ll are too nice
“network of streets and Comcast cable lines that connected them all”
Kimbrel and Price make a real nice one-two punch. True top end talent at a pretty reasonable cost. Well played DD, well played.
And I hear hell is reasonably hot.
What in the world would you’ve considered unreasonable? Can you name one such in the past 10 years?
The biggest contract ever for a pitcher is “reasonable”. Look, I have no idea if Price will be worth it, and I can’t think of many pitchers I would bet on ahead of him, but in no way can you class a record-setting contract as “reasonable”. It’s record-setting. It’s a new high water mark. It’s the biggest gamble ever taken on a pitcher. Reasonable is if he came in at the previously established numbers for an elite starter – say $25M/year. This is new territory, and the one thing you can’t call it is “reasonable”.
It’s only 7 million more than the Scherzer contract last year. Price is at least as good as Scherzer. That’s much better than expected for inflation. Part of it is no deferred money, but the Red Sox probably care more about the luxury tax bill they’re paying, which is on AAV, so deferred money is irrelevant.
This is far more expensive than the Scherzer contract. First, no deferred money which made Scherzers contract much more affordable.
Second the player option, which is makes it much more costly Essentially the Red Sox capped the amount of value they can get from Price, if he performs at the top of his projection he’s gone in 3 years, so the Red Sox only get a the average of his good, average and bad outcomes for $217M? That’s bad.
Only $7 million more than Scherzer?
IIRC, the present value of Scherzer’s contract when signed was $180 million.
So Price’s deal is something more like $37 million more than Scherzer’s.
It may or may not turn out well for the Red Sox, but the word “reasonable” seems to be a bit misplaced.
Reasonable? I sure hope that you don’t deal with money or contracts at work.
In light of Greinke’s contract would you care to amend your statement? Do you deal with contracts at work? Do you have even the remotest grasp of MLB economics? Not only won’t the RS not lose money on this deal, if Price pitches well enough to opt out they will make out like bandits!
Instead of engaging in gratuitous snark perhaps you should focus on rational analysis of the objective facts.
The RS just signed the best FA starting pitcher available this offseason for what is now below market value. The opt out, which in light of recent market trends and baring severe injury Price is certain to exercise, insulates them from over paying for what is certain to be a precipitously depreciating asset. Total victory for DD and the RS.
The odds of the Red Sox losing money is roughly 0%… even with a payroll over $200 million. As long as we start with the understanding that the Red Sox will earn money, who cares how much they pay a pitcher?
If the Red Sox win one World Series title with Price, or even if they make they playoffs a few times, their investment in Price will more than pay off.
The Red Sox are a better team with Price than without him. They earn so much money that their payroll is not a major problem. What else is there to the analysis?
Regardless of how you come out on this decision, “Opportunity cost” answers your last question.
I don’t think they have incurred any opportunity costs. Where do you see it?
Opportunity cost in not being able to sign another $20-$30 mil AAV player:
Greinke: you would lose the #12 overall pick by signing him due to compensation, so not as appealing.
Heyward: Already full OF, so not a glaring need.
Don’t really see where Opportunity cost comes from.
They are paying Price for the next 7 years you know, so it’s not just opportunity cost this year. In order to think there is no opportunity cost, you have to think they would have an effectively limitless willingness to spend, and the point at which they are unwilling may come well before the point where payroll starts to cut into their profits. If their willingness to spend was effectively limitless, then of course they would also sign Greinke, and Cueto, and they would give no thought to those deals because as soon as one of them blew out his arm, he would get cut, 150 million be damned. They would have already cut Pablo and Hanley if that was the case.
It’s a pretty absurd premise that any team is immune from opportunity cost.
What Bip said.
@Bip
They would be paying Greinke for the next 6 or Heyward for the next 7+ if they didn’t sign Price, so the Opportunity cost would be the same in either case, I guess you forgot that?
You clearly don’t understand what “opportunity cost” means.
There is always an opportunity cost, even if that opportunity cost is doing nothing.
It’s the “next best choice”, all things considered. For the Red Sox, maybe that means eating salary to move Hanley and signing Chris Davis. The number of foregone choices is functionally infinite. You don’t really incur opportunity cost.
At a vending machine with a dollar, the opportunity cost of choosing a Snickers is the thing you would have chosen if the Snickers wasn’t available.
The Red Sox can have limitless resources and each decision would still have an opportunity cost.
Then the opportunity cost for each of those moves is that they don’t get to do they other. If they wanted Heyward and would have signed him but for Price, then that precisely should demonstrate the point to you. The Sox would be better with both Greinke and Price than with only one, but they can’t sign both.
Where this can really hit them is if Price somehow falls apart and Greinke stays good. Then, they will be really hurt by the difference between the move they made and what they could have made.
Well that is a tedious use of the concept, isn’t it? BOS could sign both Greinke and Cueto. This is not the traditional situation where the spending of a dollar = the loss of the opportunity to save that dollar or where the decision to go to a movie during math class = loss of the opportunity to attend that class…
And for that matter I think teams would be better served treating more contracts as sunk costs and cutting the players loose…
Greinke have compensation attached(losing the #12 pick this year) and comes at the same/higher AAV with possibly a year less.
Cueto is questionmark depending on whether he is actually healthy or not.
Fortunately, they’re a cash cow with young, cost-controlled players at multiple positions and additional impact prospects who haven’t debuted yet. Price is the best pitcher available over the next couple of years, IIRC, so they did just fine.
Look at where the Yankees are and have been the last few years. I’m not saying I dislike the signing from the Red Sox perspective, but I do disagree with the way you are characterizing it. It is possible to run out of money, or the willingness to spend it, and then these contracts can suddenly look a lot like the money owed to Sabathia, Beltran, Rodriguez and Teixeira. Sure all of those guys have had productive, valuable periods over the last few years, but on the other hand the Yankees would almost certainly have preferred to have all of them off the payroll years ago.
They also just raised the price of pitching for the other 29 teams. This is not good.
He may have raised the bar a tick for Greinke, but his price was going to be very high regardless. I don’t think Price’s deal is going to affect what a team will pay for the lesser lights – the Alfredo Simons and Mike Pelfreys of the world.
HEY!
Ok, then sign Jonathon Broxton for $30M a year. He’ll likely be better than your worse reliever, so you’re a better team with him than without me.
Since apparently the money doesn’t matter at all, then this is a move you would make for the Sox, no?
The issue for me is the Red Sox essentially signed the same pitcher they let go for $60M more. I mean Price and Lester are essentially two of the most similar pitchers in all of baseball. I’d prefer David Price because he has more velocity, but Lester’s secondary stuff is a tad better.
A true win-win would be if Price continues to dominate and then opts out.
Price has been better by every measure that isn’t ERA alone. Either way, you’re talking about one team, but two different front offices.
Lester isn’t as good as Price. Take another look at their statistics, especially K/BB ratio.
I’ll admit that Lester isn’t as good as Price, but the difference isn’t huge.
From 2009-2015, Price has 32 fWAR and Lester has 29 fWAR.
‘I’m asking if Price is worth $60M more than Lester.
Has Dombrowski ever worried about such questions?
I agree with you that the difference between Lester and Price isn’t that huge, but as the article mentioned the Red Sox offer blew the others “out of the water.” So clearly, the other teams interested in Price share, to an extent, your assessment.
But just looking at previous contracts DD has doled out to Verlander, Miggy and, for a short time, Fielder, finding value has never been something with which he has been preoccupied.
2009 is Price’s rookie season. That’s not even a fair comparison. 3 seasons before signing, Lester has 11.5 WAR, and Price got 12.5 in 2 seasons before signing. There is a reason why Lester “only” has 155M
Over 7 seasons? I’d say Price is probably worth ~1 War per season better than Lester.
Price has been 4.2+ WAR over the last 6 seasons, peaking up to 6.4 WAR.
Lester has been 2.5+ War over the last 6 season, peaking at 5.5.
What a clown organization. They just throw money at all of their problems. Few teams could make the disgraceful, idiotic Hanley and Sandoval moves and still shrug and throw 200+ million at a problem. Anyone who presses Dombrowski or Sox management for this or other moves is misguided.
*should say “praises” Dombrokwski.
Yeah! How dare they give Baseball players money to play Baseball.
Yeah, and sell out for like 10 years straight and actually spend that money. Sheeeze.
I’ve been to more than a few of those “sellout” games. Lots of people dressed up as seats at them. Really, really uncomfortable seats.
In fairness, they are basically becoming the Yankees of the late 1990s, a team they decried as “The Evil Empire.”
I don’t blame the Red Sox for spending, and this is a mostly different group of people (except for ownership), but a Red Sox fan who praises this after blasting the Yankees for years is a hypocrite.
Comparatively the Yankees did not spend that much in the late 90s, though they still ran the top payroll. It wasn’t until the mid 00s that they started spending nearly twice as much as the next most expensive team. In 2005 the Yankees were paying out nearly 10% of all the money in player contracts in the MLB. This year the Yankees and Red Sox will probably both end up spending around the same amount, and they’ll both be looking up at the Dodgers.
kind of reminds me of Dodger fan still hating on Barry Bonds for juicing but never mentioning Eric Gagne.
Agreed, they should just sit on their money instead
I wish the billionaire that owned my favorite team would be willing to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into acquiring talent and making them team better.
You must be new to sports.
I’m not new to sports or baseball and I have no respect for a team that throws huge amounts of money at a problem. What that almost always means is the team was so poorly run that a problem was allowed to develop in the first place (barring injury/death/sudden retirement).
In reality, a death wouldn’t actually be that big a problem. Morbid to say, but you don’t have to pay “guaranteed money” to someone’s estate if they pass away.
So the Cards aren’t paying Oscar Taveras’ family any money.
Too soon?
Too soon, too soon. But the point is that the hole in the depth chart caused by his death was not something that they could be reasonably expected to have planned for. The lack of an ace pitcher was something that the Sox should’ve both planned for and fixed last year.
“I have no respect for a team that uses available resources to try to improve themselves”
Ok guy
Does Boston really have more money to spend than Miami? The Stanton contract certainly calls that into question. We have reached a point where I think it is fair to ask if there is any point to ANY value analysis of these contracts. There are just too many examples of contracts where the teams apparently do not care about getting value back, or if they do, they measure value in dramatically different terms.
How does the Stanton contract call that into question? Before this deal, the Red Sox already had over $150 million committed for next year, and the Marlins have just over $30 million. Did the Marlins sign Stanton six more times while I wasn’t looking?
Yes.
And look at the Stanton contract break-out relative to what he would have likely gotten in arbitration and early FA years. It is the standard Marlins MO, sign a player to a big deal that is back-loaded to be a monumental deal in the near-term.
When the contracts start getting expensive, then they worry about how to move the deal to another team…
Jeff, are you kidding with that “go all Roger Clemens” comment? Let’s hope he doesn’t. Warren Spahn or Cliff Lee would be nice though.
Yeah definitely wouldn’t want him to be the best pitcher in the history of baseball.
Clemens never had a bad year.
He has one slightly less amazingly awesome year, then continued his dominance.
His second run of ridiculous dominance began two years before he started taking peds.
And there’s nothing unreasonable about what he did other than staying at the same level so long.
Clemens is at worst the second greatest pitcher ever. And that’s selling him short.
Warren Spahn isnt even reasonably close.
Did you ever see Spahn pitch?
Spahn is definitely not close to Clemens’ league, but I’m not sure you can put Clemens ahead of both Johnsons (Randy and Walter), Koufax, Maddux, AND Cy Young.
My order would go W. Johnson, Maddux, R. Johnson, Clemens, etc.
But I realize Clemens is on top by WAR, so maybe I’m underestimating his career.
I’m not dinging him for PEDs, because I think Bonds is likely the second greatest hitter of all time (behind Ruth).
hey…..what am I, chopped liver?
The problem with the Clemens route is that now you get long suspensions for taking such routes.
I’d like to think you’re right, but there’s a reason Barry Bonds took a gazillion tests without ever testing positive. Masking is alive and well. Some very good chemists are likely working overtime and making the risk a good odds bet.
Not true. Clemens resurrected his career in Toronto which is where he started hitting the needle. Clemens second half of his career was played entirely under the dark cloud of ped use. Before Toronto Clemens’ career was following a normal aging curve. After Toronto it was pretty obvious something was up.
Clemens also started throwing a split finger after leaving Boston. Pretty hard to say all of his success was from PEDs, and pretty hard to rule it out as helping him.
Clemens threw a splitty while still in Boston. 100% certain of that. Looking at Clemens career trajectory only reinforces the suspicion that the entire post RS portion of his career was chemically enhanced. Loved watching the rocket pitch, even on steroids, but his career achievements are sadly irreversibly tainted. No getting around that fact.
I guess that 40-39 stretch in the 4 seasons of Clemens’ prime doesn’t count? Gee…it’s almost like he went Joe Hardy. Or his fervent, earnest prayers were miraculously answered. Or…..can anyone else think of any other possible reasons he might have suddenly went from mediocrity to GOAT?
Clemens: “I never took PEDs”.
Fan: “Okay!”
Clemens, later: “Okay, I took them, but only starting from this date”.
Fan: “I have no reason to disbelieve this statement!”
Now if we can only find a buyer fo Ramirez.
Yeah, but he’s not that good.
Nice that Ortiz decides to retire this year… do you think that fact escaped Price? I wonder if Papi made his decision so that it would be easier for the Sox to obtain Price?
Almost certainly not.
Ortiz made the decision so Ramirez could look ahead to DH and not make a fool of himself, and because his body is barking at him.
No he made the decision because he’s old, he isn’t on some old terrible contract that runs until he’s 43, they weren’t going to resign him and he’s near the end anyway.
If ortiz still had 3 years left on some massive arod contract he’d not be retiring
Jeff I like it when you write things.
oh man red sox fans have to be glad the cherington era is over.
instead of signing 3war players for $20m, they get an elite 6war player for $30m. this deal is a bargain compared tonthe cherington specials.
red sox acting like they’re the red sox again, and not some team who can’t even pony up to keep their own elite players.
congrats, sox fans.
Lester was a 5 win pitcher this year, but they’ll be paying Price over $60M more. Maroons.
Amazing they would go back to the FA market this large so soon after inking two of last seasons worst FA contracts.
Man, a lot of really silly comments happening here today. Why would a front office, let alone one headed by a different guy, be in any way discouraged from participating in the one really free market in baseball because they got a particularly raw deal the last time? They are participating in the same market as everyone else.
Because that is how we human beings pretty much do things. With the exception here that the ‘different guy’ was clearly brought in to operate this way.
yes, they should have kept lester and miller, but cherington went for what he thought were safer signings in porcello pqnda hanley. huge mistakes.
dombrowski has fixed two of them by getting price and kimbrel, which is a great start.
fixing the other mistakes is going to be much harder of course.
Why should they keep Miller? E-rod is a good bet to out produce Miller in WAR for the next 5 years.
The argument wasn’t around Lester, it was
4/80 for Porcello or 7/217 for Price.
True, but Price’s is really going to be 3/$95 (or whatever the breakdown is), since he’s definitely opting out.
Even if Price gets Tommy John or declines some, is there a realistic way he wouldn’t get 4/100? That almost brings him back to the full value, and that’s his WORST case scenario.
Price has a decent chance of becoming Cliff Lee, Lester can’t even throw to the bases and has no idea how to approach hitters without Ross taking him through it. Epstein would trade Lester’s contract for Price’s in a second.
Thats silly.
Does the contract state that either party can opt out after three years? The other articles I’ve read phrase it as if this is a player option only. If the Sox also have the option, that would be a huge difference and significantly reduce their risk. If he does pull a Brandon Webb that would save them $127 mill.
I bet you a trillion dollars it is only a player opt out.
His agent would be criminally incompetent to let him sign a deal that let’s the sox have an opt out
Yes, because that would be fair to the team.
Won’t someone please think of the interests of the billion dollar organizations?
What the team agrees to is fair for the team. If they don’t think it’s fair, they don’t sign.
You people don’t work in management, do you?
Dave values the opt out at $25 mill. Any reason for that particular valuation? Given the cliffs that starting pitchers skirt, I’d sure be inclined to value it a lot higher.
The valuation of that opt out should be approximately equivalent to the different in contract value had they signed him to one without an opt-out. So, if they gave Price seven years and no opt-out, valuing it at $25 million, would 7/242 look right? Seems maybe even high to me, and certainly not more than that.
Dave values the opt out at $25 mill.
No, that’s not what Dave said. Here’s his quote:
If you think the opt-out is worth about $25 million
The Red Sox have gone back to being the same ol’ Red Sox that existed before they took Bill James on some 13 years ago now. What I recall, they were generally a disappointment doing it that way.
Yeah. That 2004 team was built without any huge contracts!
Oh wait… Other than the last 2 seasons (epic disaster seasons) this is how they have operated. They’ve had one of the top payrolls in baseball for decades.
The best team they’ve ever had was built around huge payroll commitments to several star players and pitchers.
Have you forgotten Manny Rameriz’s 8/160 contract signed in 2000?
From their drastic failures of late, it’s pretty obvious that they stopped listening to Bill James years ago.
Or that James can’t predict future success any better than the numerous projection systems that failed miserably last season?
What do we guess the chances are that David Price doesn’t exercise his opt-out? 10%? And I’m assuming that only happens in the case of a serious injury. That’s the only way this ends up being an albatross for Boston. If he does opt-out then Boston only paid for Price’s age 30, 31, and 32 seasons.
For Price, opt-out means putting 127M in risk, an amount way larger than any risks any players ever had.
Or look at this way. After an incredible season, Greinke, 33, is seeking for a said 150M contract. If he pitched at Zimmerman’s level, he certainly would get less than 110M/5 given his age. Price might need a season like Greinke’s, at age 33, to get more than 127M and cover the risk of opt-out. How likely is that?
That’s a fair point, but remember that the question isn’t whether or not Price can beat 4/$127m, it’s whether or not he can beat $127 million period. If his agent feels confident that they can secure a deal for $150m+ then he’ll opt-out.
10%? I think the list of pitchers who are worth 4/127 going into their age-33 season is small indeed, unless there is some pretty heavy inflation. I would be more inclined to put a 10% on the chance that he opts out.
Greinke had a season better than anyone could have possibly expected in order for his to be worth it. I don’t think he should make it look easier than it is.
But it’s 3 more years of salary inflation until then.
For all we know, wins will be worth $10m or more by then, meaning Price could easily get a 4/$120.
4/120 is still less than the 4/127 the sox are in the hook for. Yikes.
My point was that he’ll probably get 4/120 (or more) if the next three years are anything other than a disaster. Even if year 3 is starting some decline, even if he misses a year with TJ surgery.
He’s averaged 5 wins per year over the last 6 years, and was at over 6 the past two. Even if he declines and is only worth 3 wins per year after the next 3 years, he could be worth $30 mil per year (or more) with inflation.
So unless he becomes a totally league average pitcher or worse, which is possible, he’s going to opt out. Because if teams think he’s worth $30 mil per year, he could get 4/120 or better.
The chances of him totally falling apart and being obviously average in 3 years are real, but I think they are fairly low. Maybe 10 or 20%. If he has 2 good years and 1 bad one, he’s still getting paid. If he has 3 decent years, he’s getting paid. If he has 2 mediocre years and 1 good one, he’s probably getting paid, especially if the good one is 2018.
So in my mind the Red Sox are looking at an 80-90% chance that he opts out.
127M/4 isn’t worth enough for Price to option out. You have to decide whether to option out before you know who and how much you will sign with. That’s risk. To offset the risk of giving up 127M, the expected contract needs to be well above 127M for him to option out.
CC Sabathia got 122M/5 at 32 in 2012, and Cliff Lee got 120M/5 at age 32 in 2011. Both of them had a 6 WAR+ season before signing. The market for a 32 years old pitcher just doesn’t seem to inflate as fast as other groups. And those 2 both bust after signed after 32. Clubs could learn from those samples.
I think Greinke’s performance in the next 3 years is important for Price. If he got bust again, there might not be another club willing to pay 120M+ for a 32+ pitcher, even if they just pitched a CT season.
Wasn’t trying to be snarky tl80. For the record I think you are correct. I thinks it’s very likely that Price opts out after three years in which case this is a great deal for both Price and the RS.
No mention of Price’s abysmal playoff record anywhere? You mean to tell me that isn’t relevant? The guy has won 1 outright playoff game in his entire career and that was in 2008, in his FIRST playoff game. He has lost every other one since (and this year’s stealing of Buhrle’s win doesn’t count). His ERA in the 2015 playoffs was over 6.50! This was on a team with one of the most stacked lineups in MLB! $30,000,000 a year for that? Red Sox wind up regretting this signing — and the writing was on the wall before they inked. They will only have themselves to blame.
Barry Bonds postseason OPS by Age, with season fWAR for reference:
25 .542 (1990, 9.9 fWAR)
26 .392 (7.8 fWAR)
27 .868 (9.6 fWAR)
32 .647 (8.9 fWAR)
35 .653 (2000, 7.6 fWAR), after which his postseason OPS was incredible.
If the greatest hitter of his generation can suck in the playoffs for a long, long time, perhaps it’s just not relevant to measure a guy who has 61 innings during an eight year career and consider it predictive going forward.
Barry Bonds did not become a prolific post season player until he had consumed more PEDs than Lance Armstrong, so you’ll have to forgive us while we set his example aside when looking for predictors of the rest of Price’s career. The PED era is over. We’re back to the days of What You See Is What You Get. $217,000,000 for Mariano Rivera makes sense. $217,000,000 for 1-7 in the Postseason, a most recent ERA of over 6.50, and a guy iwho is 30…total joke. There’s a reason Detroit traded him.
Bad troll is bad.
Tony, you’re absolutely right, but in the euphoria following this singing no one except the ultra-rationalists will pay attention to what you’re pointing out.
This contract will be yet another albatross.
Why do you care? Is it your money? Do you think ticket prices for Fenway will be cheaper if they don’t sign Price?
Why is nobody concerned about Johan Santa’s whereabouts?
He was becoming too much of a meme around here, I guess.
Click here to support a worthy cause:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=841&position=C
“Johan Santa” is where he is every year at this time: Getting gifts ready for girls and boys at his home at the South Pole.
Ha, I actually laughed out loud at this!
Somehow I have to start liking a guy that I’ve hated pretty much since the day he arrived in the Bigs and peaked after he hit Papi. This is like when Lackey signed here. No way I would give $31 million a year to anyone, outside of maybe a Trout, certainly not a 30 yr old pitcher.
You’re smarter than the Red Sox are. Sadly that’s not saying much these days.
Overpriced or not, I want to know what TheoJed is thinking today. Though I guess they just go Shark hunting? Badly need a guy to take the ball instead of Hendricks and/or Hammel in a seven-game series. Can’t head into an LCS with two meatballs. I don’t care about Price’s post-season career (and neither should you); I wanted to see him in the National League wearing the Cubby blue. I think he’d have sliced the NL into tiny pieces.
He would have been much better and baseball would be better off with Price as a much-cheaper Cub, sure. But fools with money are fools with money and it is what it is.
Hendricks is actually pretty good. He didn’t pitch terrible in the one shot he got. 7k/0bb, 3 solo homers. Not great, not terrible. His K rate was surprisingly good. The change is a very good pitch. He commands the sinker well. I actually think he’s got a chance to be a 3.
I’m a huge Yankee fan, but good for the Red Sox. Sure they overpayed but they got the best starting pitcher in the league. To get a star playe r/pitcher you HAVE to overpay. And yes…take a chance. They are now the favorites in the AL East. Bad contracts on Sandoval and Hanley, but they might be able to get rid of Hanley. Great outfield, who will only get better. Great Ace, great closer. Don’t forget Buchholtz is a darn good pitcher as well. Things are shaping up great in Boston. I’m jealous.
I don’t think that there’s nearly enough attention paid to the opt-out here and the extent to which Price shattered the ceiling on free agent pitching deals.
Price is better than Max Scherzer, but only by a bit. Max Scherzer effectively got just north of $170M for seven seasons last winter thanks to the deferrals. I’m not sure exactly how to value the opt-out for Price, but it’s probably worth at least $10M and as much as $30M. Even if we use the low estimate of $10M, David Price just got $227M for seven seasons. That’s a 25% jump at the top of the market!
This is the closest thing to A-Rod blowing the top off of the market in 2000…yet it just happened for a 30-year-old pitcher.
There are some bad contracts in baseball…yet this just became the worst.
I love Price. I would’ve loved him on the Cubs. I think that he might pitch well at first, though I’d be seriously concerned given that we’ve already got leaked reports suggesting that he preferred other teams to the Red Sox. That doesn’t bode well, nor does the fact that so many BoSox fans apparently hate the guy.
I just can’t get over the opt-out. Suggesting that it is a benefit to the team is patently absurd. Guaranteed long-term deals build in the possibility that the player falls apart over the life of the deal but they also build in the possibility that the player continues to play at a high level…except when they don’t. Enter the opt-out. Now, the Sox have ALL of the downside risk and NONE of the upside value. That’s a terrible idea just like the Greinke opt-out was terrible for the Dodgers and the Sabathia opt-out was terrible for the Yankees.
I’ll rue the day that Theo-Jed gives an opt-out.
I don’t think there is any way this deal is worse than Cano’s.
Would the Red Sox trade Price and his contract for Cano’s? I’m sure the M’s would.
There has never been a FA ace pitcher that didn’t cost “too much”.
To suggest that this is overpaying is just naive. If the Yankees/Dodgers/Giants, or other big spender had been in on him, it would have probably been 8 $260. Smart move by the Sox to get him before there is a bidding war after Greinke chooses.
Best case scenario for the Sox this a 3-yr $90M deal
I still like this deal. I still think it’s eminently reasonable in context.
I understand why some think the opt out is bad for the Red Sox. If price stinks up the joint and gets injured in the next 3 years the RS are on the hook for 4/127 to retain the services of a declining asset. However, let’s assume price is very good over the next 3 years and that player salaries continue to climb, an easy assumption given prices career to this point and the fact that MLB is awash in shiny new tv dollars. So after 3 years price opts out. So the RS will have signed the best FA pitcher on the market this offseason for 3/90. Uhmmm. That’s fantastic! The RS lose the opportunity to pay 4/127 to a 33 yo pitcher, ace or no. Uhmmm. That’s also fantastic. Throw in the possibility of getting a compensation pick if/when 33 yo price leaves and I’m starting to get delirious. Without the opt out clause, the Red Sox are on the hook for all 217m. With the opt clause that could be reduced to 3/90. Where’s the downside exactly? Price was signing for 7+ years regardless. If he’s good enough to opt in in 3 years that means by extension the RS have been good for three years. After that he goes elsewhere and we sign a different, younger FA. I get the risk is all on the RS if things go badly but that was going to be the case with or without an opt out clause. I hope price wins 3 cy youngs and 3 WS MVP awards and then opts out.
Kudos to DD. He’s landed a pair of elite pitchers at an eminently reasonable cost.
“The RS lose the opportunity to pay 4/127 to a 33 yo pitcher, ace or no. Uhmmm. That’s also fantastic.”
They lose something they want, that’s fantastic?
Is it fantastic for the Dodgers that they lose Greinke now?
Would it have been fantastic for the Phillies if Hamels had been able to opt-out last offseason?
33 yo pitchers are almost never worth huge dollars going forward (see for example Sabathia, C.C.). If price opts out after 3 years then the RS can sign or develop another, younger ace. Grienke is an absolute stud but I still wouldn’t want to pay him big dollars into his age 38 season. He may turn out to be the exception that proves the rule but if the LAD were prudent they’d let him walk. Of course, they apparently have unlimited $ and are in a seeming win now mode so they likely see things differently. The point still stands, if you can somehow avoid long term commitments to aging pitchers that’s a good thing. If price opts out after 3 years the Red Sox will have managed to do just that. Fantastic!
The Dodgers are going to have to spend the same as the old Greinke contract to get a worse pitcher. Or they are going to have to spend MORE to get an equally good pitcher. How is that fantastic?
What about Hamels?
I see how a team might prefer giving an opt-out to giving another guaranteed year, but your attempt to argue that this same contract with an opt-out is better than one without will not work. Even if you’re a pessimist and you think that even if Price is still great after year 3, you still don’t want him for 4/127, then you can bet someone else does, and you could at least trade him.
I’m still not following the logic behind hating the opt out clause. If the Red Sox had signed Price for 3/90, everyone and their mother would be applauding the sox for signing an elite talent to a very team friendly contract. Big AAV but little to no risk of being saddled with Price’s decline phase at top dollar. I understand that the option is Price’s and that there is every likely hood that the RS are stuck with the entire 7/217 but that was going to be the case without the opt out clause. If Price is awesome for three years and opts out the sox still get three awesome years at close to market value. You then take the compensation pick and seek your fortunes elsewhere. Sure that means the sox will need to have a plan to replace price in 3 years. Ok. So what? Price is not likely going to be worth 4/127 as a 33 yo but that doesn’t mean someone won’t pay him. It doesn’t mean he won’t opt out and then come to regret it. The best possible scenario for the sox is that price is a total stud for three years and then he opts out. There is no downside to that scenario other than losing the services of what is likely to be an over priced 33yo pitcher.
Rant on but be aware that the sky is not in fact falling.
I think that the opt-out is a good strategy for the team because these contracts usually have a HUGE capacity for downside, and giving an opt-out in exchange for a lower overall commitment is borrowing from the upside of the deal to reduce the downside. That’s a perfectly fine strategy.
My problem with this is the reasoning that this same contract is better for the team with the opt-out than without, which is nonsense. Price will opt out only if he projects to be worth more than the remainder of the contract, which is the precise case where the Red Sox want to have him. If, like people are saying, they would never want him on that remaining deal, then the chances are that, in that case, Price will not opt-out.
@Chill
Isn’t that what the Dodgers just did with Greinke?
They paid him 75M over the last 3 years and they received (according to this site) 93M worth of production and Greinke opted out, in search of a longer more lucrative deal.
The Dodgers won because they got surplus value at a very high level.
Greinke wins because he made 75M and gets to sign a longer, more lucrative deal.
Seems like a very good way to do a high money deal.
But the Dodgers lost in that, had they signed him to a slightly larger deal with no opt-out, they would likely get even more surplus value. However, they gave up their chance at that in exchange for a lower maximum commitment.
I call nonsense on your nonsense. If the doc had signed price for 3/90 it would be a fantastic deal for the sox. If price performs well for those three years the sox reap both surplus value and in the field value from the contract. If price opts out the sox will likely get a compensation pick and free up 30+ million dollars/year to allocate somewhere else. The idea that any 33yo pitcher can live up to a 4/127 million dollar contract (or more) is where the nonsense resides. That doesn’t mean someone won’t offer him more (see Grienke, Zachary) or that Price won’t choose to opt out. Price opting out IS the upside to this deal. As a RS fan I pray to god price has 3 fantastic years and then walks. Let another team gamble on surplus value/ on field value for a 33yo pitcher making 30+ million per.
@circle change. We are of the same mind. Yes I think the Dodgers got great value for Grienke and should now just walk away. Of course, their unlimited cash and the prospect of Grienke going to the SF Giants will likely compel them to overpay for an aging pitcher but that’s beside the point.
The point I’m trying to make is that 3/90 for Price is a great deal for the Sox. If Price pitches well and then walks so what? The RS can still resign him if they want or they can look elsewhere. If Price pitches poorly or the FA market tanks, both highly unlikely in my view, then 7/217 doesn’t look too good for the Sox. Unfortunately that’s a risk that goes hand in hand with any FA signing.
@chill you absolutely will not be saying Price opting out “IS the upside to this deal” in 3 years if he opts out. That will mean that Boston will have to replace 5-7 WAR from their starting pitching, and to do so they will either have to give Price a raise or watch him walk.
It’s easy to say now that Price walking is all good and fine, you’ll get a draft pick etc, but I guarantee you you won’t be saying that if Boston is a contender in 3 years and they suddenly have a gaping hole in their rotation.
Dom you are incorrect. Price walking away after three years, regardless of his performance going forward from that point is a dream scenario for the sox. This can be proven many different ways. If the sox had just signed Price for 3/90, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, would be saying this was a total win for the sox. How can that possibly be something the RS come to regret. Remember this is the franchise that let Pedro walk. They turned that compensation pick into Jacoby Ellsbury. The idea that Price at 33yo for north of 30mil/year is a “must have” is totally ludicrous.
They would be saying that because in that scenario there is no chance of them getting stuck with $200 million albatross, unlike reality, where that is a very real risk
C’mon people.
Price may or may be must-have at that point. Greinke is at that age now, and he’s pretty much a must-have. It could be true for Price. But here’s the key fact:
If Price is a must-have at that age, the Sox don’t get to keep him.
If Price is a rather-not-have at that age, they have to keep him.
In each scenario they get the opposite of what they want.
The only way the opt-out is a win is if the someone strange thing you are so convinced of turns out to be true: That age 30-32 Price is a great bargain at 3/90 and yet is a horrible overpay at 4/127, AND that no one will successfully glean this except the Red Sox, meaning that they let him go and they don’t re-sign him for more. In reality, there is a legit chance Price is not worth 3/90 up front, and there is also a legit chance that Price is worth the initial 3/90 and also the remaining 4/127, two possibilities you are completely dismissing.
I’m not dismissing the possible downside of being stuck with the whole 7/217. The opt out clause gives a glimmer of hope that this contract only ends up being 3/90. Without the opt out there was no possibility of that. The opt out clause preserves the possibility that sox and price can move on after 3 years. That’s likely a win win. I also understand that if Price pitches poorly he won’t opt out. That was going to be the case without an opt clause so no loss there for the sox. If price pitches well enough to opt out I still think that’s a win for the sox (and for price) because I think it’s ver very unlikely that Price pitches well enough to justify 30 mil/year at the age of 33 and beyond. Of course, I could be wrong about that. The record of 33 yo pitchers playing well enough to justify those dollars is pretty thin. The record of teams paying those prices anyway is fairly robust so even if price seems to be in decline and no longer worth the commitment from the sox perspective as long as price, his agent, and at least one other team feeling differently is not only possible but probable.
I’ll say it one more time. The opt out keeps alive the possibility that this is only a 3/90 commitment by the sox. Regardless of how price pitches from year 4 forward that is a great sign by the sox.
Convincing you that I’m right is not my priority. Watching the Sox squire top end talent that will hopefully translate into wins is. This deal does that while keeping alive the hope that the sox won’t be saddled with Price’s decline phase. Huzzah!
Probably said in the comments already, but I don’t get the point of blowing every other team out of the water. Would he not sign in Boston unless it was a huge amount more than anyone else offered?
Problem was Greinke was expected to sign later this week. So the Red Sox were afraid that Price would deliberate too long and cause them to miss our on Greinke. Then if Price decided on another offer, they would be without either guy. So basically they went to Price with their best offer and told him he until yesterday night to accept so that if he rejected they would still have time to negotiate with Greinke.
i wonder what the mets would have said if the red sox offered $100m in cash for syndegaard?
Excellent question. I think the mets say no thanks but it’s likely very tempting.
Just about everybody here thinks that the player option makes this deal worse for the Red Sox. I disagree – hear me out.
a) If Price performs poorly during his first 3 years, then he obviously doesn’t exercise the option. This contract will suck for the Red Sox obviously, but the player option will have had no influence on the outcome
b) If Price performs at an average or above-average level and decides NOT to exercise the option, then the option has no influence once again.
c) Now let’s look at what happens if Price plays exercises the option, which will only happen if he plays very well the next 3 years. The Red Sox will have paid $30M a year for 3 years of ace-like performance (anything less than that and Price doesn’t exercise the option). That doesn’t look too bad now, does it? Think about it a different way. If Price had accepted TODAY an offer for 3 years at $30M per year (a $90M total contract), don’t you think people would have thought he was crazy? He would be leaving so much money on the table because, even though the AAV is high even for an ace, the team is capping its risk by only getting 3 prime-years and none of those Price-is-older-and-declining years.
Again, I’m not debating whether the $217M contract is a smart move or not – probably not. But once the team decided to dole out such a contract, adding this player option is likely to be good or at worst irrelevant. If Price exercises the option, the Red Sox end up getting a pretty good return on their $90M (not to mention the additional draft pick they would get if Price signs with some other team, by the way). Now, if Price opts out and then the Sox give him even more money, then they likely will have missed out on an opportunity – but that’s a separate mistake made 3 years from now.
Options should be mutual. If the player gets one, then the team gets one too.
Why are you so insistent on saving billionaires a few dollars?
As I see it, the opt out is nothing but a positive for the Red Sox and this is why.
If the Red Sox, or any team, had to choose between offering Price a 3/90 or a 7/217 contract every single franchise would choose the former. Every single franchise. Every time. Given Price’s age and the number of dollars involved it is impossible to imagine any team choosing the later. Ever. Unless they had a crystal ball that could foretell seven years into the future of a 30+ year old pitcher with a substantial amount of mileage on his arm. All else being equal the 3/90 contract is far better for any team, especially given Price’s age and the vicissitudes of pitcher health.
So why did the Red Sox offer Price 7/217, you ask? Because they had to. They are a big market team that needs to mollify a restive fan base and usher out one of their all-time greats, Papi, on a winning note. The market dictates that 30 something starting pitchers with any kind of successful resume get overpaid for their declining years. That’s simply a fact of MLB reality. The examples are too numerous to list. One can rail against this reality but that won’t change the reality. Life is unfair. Billionaire owners have to pay over the hill pitchers tens of millions of dollars that they will likely never earn. C’est la vie.
So why is the opt out advantageous to the Red Sox under any circumstances, you ask? Because there is no possible downside given the reality the Red Sox live in. If Price stinks and decides not to opt out, the Red Sox were going to sign Price, or another of his ilk, for substantially the same contract. As long as the Red Sox were determined to land a front line FA pitcher this off season, and they clearly were, a nine figure contract was inevitable. The opt out does nothing to change that reality. If Price pitches well and decides to opt out, that is even better for the Red Sox. To begin with they get three years of an Ace level pitcher for market value while he generates both surplus value and actual on field performance. That’s great for the Red Sox. And for Price too! He will then get to renegotiate a more lucrative deal for himself with any team he likes. The Red Sox will have the chance to see Price up close for three years and then revaluate both the pitcher and where their team is at competitively speaking. (I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Kimbrel’s deal, including the team option, ends at the same time as this opt out potentially kicks in). If the Red Sox decide they want to resign Price for more money so what? I doubt it will be any more costly than Scherzer’s deferred money on his big contract. The flexibility the Red Sox will have at that point is worth the risk of not being able to resign Price if he opts out. Even paying more for Price in three years time does not out weigh the value of that potential flexibility. The opt out is an unqualified good for both sides.
i think there’s a good argument to go 3/120 before you go 7/217… don’t know if that would have gotten it done, but the downside on a contract this big is just ridiculous…
Somehow $40 Million/year isn’t an overpay?
Seems like there’s just a whole bunch of hate because it’s the Red Sox.
Last year everyone dumped all over them for not ponying up for Lester and now everyone dumps on them for ponying up for Price.
Somebody was going to give him a Kershawian/Scherzerian contract because that’s what it takes to sign an ACE via free agency in 2015. That’s just the pure economics of Baseball.
I haven’t seen anyone mention the effect of the opt-out on Price’s behaviour. Players are sometimes seen to be playing harder in a contract year. Will Price try harder for three years in order to get a chance to exercise the opt-out? That would be great for the Red Sox.