FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/1/15

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Let’s get this. Before we get going in earnest, can I just recommend this Biggie x Star Wars mashup album? I’m like a kid in a candy store over here. http://lifeafterdeathstar.net/

Paul Swydan: Also note that this is our first time with JotCast, so bear with us if we’re a little slow tonight.

JotCast sucks: so David Price… what say you?

Paul Swydan: I say that you all are right – I think this is a win-win. Price doesn’t have to leave the AL East, and he gets paid like he should. The Red Sox get the ace they need. And a lefty to boot. I’m a big fan of this deal. I’m not concerned with the dollars.

Paul Swydan: Hold on, just trying to get Jeff logged in here.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Red Sox were going to get some starting pitching somehow. I think this move should be look at in 3 months and then fulled evaluated

James: If the Mariners can’t find a trade partner for trumbo, is he worth the expected 9 mil salary or are they better off trading him?

Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa Paul, the End Chat button is where the old Send button was, about went for the shortest chat ever.

Paul Swydan: Well, they did. He is on his way to Baltimore. If I’m comfortable with any team getting him, it’s Baltimore. He perfectly fits the mold of a Duquette rebound candidate. And they have the money. But I think the Mariners did the right thing in moving on.

Paul Swydan: I know! I am just hitting return. That seems to be working fine.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they can find a trade partner and it seems like they did. I saw the Rays as another destination.

The Dude: Let’s address the elephant in the room and answer the $217 mil question: thoughts on Wilin Rosario electing free agency?

Paul Swydan: Sadly, it might be a feat if he gets a major league deal. This reminds me of Dayan Viciedo a little bit. I can see the positives, but it’s hard for him to be more than a pinch hitter, so it might be hard to logistically fit him on a roster.

Jeff Zimmerman: He may be interesting in the AL as a 2nd/3rd catcher.

Will: The more I think about it, the more I think Cueto would make sense for the Astros. They can front load the deal (They have a 19 million dollar salary next year !!!!!!!!!! as of right now). A possible rotation of Kecuhel/Cueto/McHugh/McCullers/Fiers is easily the best rotation in the AL, and probably MLB. What do you think?

Paul Swydan: I like this idea quite a bit. They keep claiming they’re going to spend now that they’re good. Cueto would be a great fit. I worry a little about Cueto’s health, but I think he’s still a great pitcher.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Mets rotation is better, but he does make sense for the Astros. Several teams could use him and I see the Blue Jays making a push after missing out on Price

Minty: Would you rather have Gallo or Brinson in 2016? 2016+?

Q-Ball: Of course, you have to tell us your thoughts on the David Price deal. Are you really surprised by the amount or length?

Paul Swydan: Oops. Two-fer’d. For Minty, I saw Klaw said Brinson last week, and I’ll defer to him there. As for Q-Ball, I’m not really surprised by either the amount or the length.

Jeff Zimmerman: Brinson in 2016, but I want to see Gallo in the league. He is a freak and freaks make good TV.

Mike: Due to the CBA granting teams six years of control, it seems like most of the new payroll money is being pushed into the free agency pool. In the next round of bargaining, do you think the PA will try to negotiate for higher vet minimums or rookie salaries?

Jeff Zimmerman: The Price deal was as expected

Paul Swydan: I doubt you’ll see them stump for the rookies. That’s not really how the union rolls. But there will definitely be some bucking from the Union. For more on this, make sure you check out Dave Cameron’s piece in the THT Annual.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the players could get quite a bit if they agree on an international draft

Scott: Heard Pirates are interested in Justin Masterson. What do you think about this? With his sinker, I think he would fit well into a system with Ray Searage.

Paul Swydan: It’s a match made in heaven, and if Searage can’t fix him, he’s just about done anyway. So, yeah, I like that signing for both parties.

Jeff Zimmerman: He could fit or still just suck. Might as well find out.

SBM: Got two interviews with the Blue Jays and Marlins next week. Any advice?!

Paul Swydan: First – good luck.

Paul Swydan: Second, be prepared, be honest, and be firm. Know your own worth. There are worse things than not grinding out 100-hour weeks for a team. Not the end of the world if you don’t get either.

Jeff Zimmerman: Show how you are willing to learn.

Scott: What do you make of the Shelby Miller for Joc rumors? I know there would be more pieces involved but I think this would be a bad move by LA. Not too high on Shelby.

Paul Swydan: I say strap in, because now that Price is off the board, it’s high time for trade rumors. Wake me when something goes down.

Jeff Zimmerman: I could see it happen, but I personally despise trade rumors. Just a waste of everyones time.

Andy: Who’s happier today: Twins fans or Red Sox fans? Corollary: Who benefits the most from Price deal?

Paul Swydan: On the Red Sox? Rick Porcello. Pressure is off once again. On the market? Cueto and Greinke.

Paul Swydan: Also, Red Sox fans, because most Twins fans probably don’t know what they’re getting in Park.

Jeff Zimmerman: Red Sox fans by far. I would say Price will be pretty after the end of the day.

anon: Per eno’s article, WAR might be overvaluing defensive down the middle type hitters and undervaluing the corner sluggers. What is your guys perspective? Will there be an adjustment in WAR calculations?

Paul Swydan: We don’t make changes to WAR lightly, so I would never bet on changes to the calculation. But Eno had a good point.

Jeff Zimmerman: I agree 100% with Eno since I wrote the article he referenced

Ryan: Why did Zimmermann receive less money that many people (such as Dave Cameron and the crowdsourced projections) originally predicted? Take less money to go to Detroit? Concern about his arm long-term after TJ surgery?

Paul Swydan: I can’t speak to the concern over his arm being the #1 factor, but it’s definitely a combination of that plus him jumping the gun on the market for some reason. Just last week in this very space, we discussed how Zimm’s best bet was to wait out Price/Greinke/Cueto. Obviously he and his agent felt differently.

Jeff Zimmerman: He said he wanted to be near his home and it seems the big issue in total value was one less year in length

Roger: The Price deal presumably makes someone in the Red Sox rotation expendable. Do you think they try to move Porcello’s contract? Or perhaps use E-Rod or Henry Owens as part of a deal to make teams more willing to take on Pablo’s or Hanley’s contract?

Jeff Zimmerman: Pitchers get hurt and suck. I think they keep what they have and add even another arm before the start of the season.

Paul Swydan: I could see using Owens to move Sandoval’s deal. I doubt that happens though. I could also see trading Miley for an upgrade. I think if nothing else changes though that Joe Kelly is the odd-man out. It’d be hard to put Rodriguez in the minors to start the year, and Porcello and Miley have to pitch.

David: How sad should I be that the Blue Jays aren’t signing Price?

Paul Swydan: Very sad. Not sure why the Blue Jays are so cheap, they play in one of MLB’s biggest markets. Everyone assumes they’re small market because they’re Canadian, but that is simply not the case.

Jeff Zimmerman: But you got Happ… oh wait, yea at least one bottle of wine sad

Andy: Does anybody know why Jorge Posada is always at the top of the suggested players in the search bar?

Jeff Zimmerman: Not I

Paul Swydan: We’ve been told it’s a glitch, though obviously we haven’t quite pinned down what kind of glitch it is.

Detectorist: The 2016 Jays project to have a similar or better starting rotation to the 2015 Red Sox with a much, much better lineup. Why aren’t they getting all the Fangraphs love like the Red Sox did last offseason?

Jeff Zimmerman: Does it really matter?

Paul Swydan: Because the bottom of the Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t as projectable as the bottom of Boston’s? But we have them 10th in overall 2016 WAR. Not like the projections hate the Blue Jays.

Paul Swydan: Also, what Jeff said.

Vic: Where does David Dahl finish 2016?

Paul Swydan: If he’s healthy, I think there’s a chance he finishes in Denver. I’d say he needs to learn to draw a walk before he gets promoted, but the Rockies have never been as obsessed with walks as other teams.

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably in the majors, I could see the Rockies go cheap and only call him up in Sept.

Vic: I hate the fact that Price gets an opt-out after 3 years like Greinke. If Price wants a 3 year deal, then sign one. If he wants the security of a 7 year deal, then sign one. You agree?

Paul Swydan: No, not even remotely, sorry. That’s his right, and as Cameron alluded to in his IG post, he probably gave up some money to get the opt out. That’s negotiating. Fundamentally, it doesn’t change much for the Red Sox other than that they may have to kick in a few more bucks to keep him three more years.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, if he blows out his arm, he still gets paid. If he is healthy, he will get paid even more. This is a great deal for Price and a compromise for the Red Sox

Scott: Saw that the Cardinals were runner ups on Price. That does not seem like a Mozeliak move. Am I crazy to be shocked by that?

Paul Swydan: A little surprised, perhaps. But it’s also hearsay. Not like we had a competition for this. Some writer just said it. That doesn’t make it gospel.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am a little surprised if it was the Cards, I am would be more surprised if it was true.

Jake Arrieta’s Beard: Will the Cubs continue to dodge the huge AAV bullets this offseason and go with a backend option like Samardzija and/or trade for a Miller/Carrasco type? Or will Theo lose his mind and sign Cueto for some insane money?

Paul Swydan: Theo is the guy who let Pedro walk. I’d be sincerely surprised if he signed Cueto, and even a little surprised if he signed Samardzija.

Jeff Zimmerman: I have no idea, anything I would say is 100% guess. Let me see way Bot Rumor says

Springer: The Angels announce, “We are willing to trade Mike Trout for your entire pitching staff.” How many teams say no?

Paul Swydan: Maybe the Mets? None should, that’s for damn sure.

Jeff Zimmerman: Bot Stove: Blue Jays wondering about Youkilis-like hair. Ariz is considering a deal

Jeff Zimmerman: The Mets are the only ones I can think of

Ryan: Any chance the Cubs would do a deal built around Schwarber for Carlos Gonzalez? Schwarber is a disaster in the OF and I don’t see him taking over for Rizzo any time soon.

Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting idea, as the Rockies could plug him in at first base. But Schwarber may bring back more than CarGo.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Cubs would do the deal and the Rockies would jump all over the deal

Paul Swydan: Maybe if the Rockies eat some of CarGo’s money?

Old Man Roto: Hope you had a nice gobble gobble. I’m loaded at pitching. Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, D Salazar, Matz, ERod, Severino, Stroman, Smyly, and more. All are under $9 and most under $5. Trade Kluber for Joc P and Desmond? Mixed 5×5 keeper. Thanks.

Paul Swydan: Even given how flush you are, I’d want more for Kluber. I’d do that package for Carrasco though.

Jeff Zimmerman: I am with Paul. I may go for one hitter which I was more sure of.

Guest: So the Red Sox are pretty much done, right? If HanRam is playing 1B. The Rotation looks pretty decent with Price,Buchholz,Porcello,ERod, and Miley.

Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. I think they’re still going to try to move Sandoval and/or Ramirez, and I’d be a lot happier if they could upgrade Miley or Porcello. And the bullpen definitely still needs work. Maybe done with the splashy moves, but not done.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would hope not, but they can go with those if they like, but it is still a suspect rotation

John: The Braves are actively shopping Shelby Miller. The Red Sox and Cubs were mentioned earlier this afternoon. Say Dembrowski isn’t done with the pitching staff. What would be a type of package the Red Sox would have to trade for him?

Paul Swydan: More than Miller is worth, probably.

Jeff Zimmerman: and they would probably get it.

Jeff Zimmerman: I should put my THT annual article to work on it

Paul Swydan: Yes, you should.

Paul Swydan: Did you guys buy the THT Annual yet? Don’t do me like that. It’s only $14.39. You’ll spend more on lunch tomorrow, probably!

Scott: Ken Rosenthal reported that the Braves initially offered Shelby Miller for Pollock straight up. Then, after being rejected, offered Miller and Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and Aaron Blair. In my opinion, Pollock is much more valuable than that. Am I wrong?

Paul Swydan: You’re not wrong.

Jeff Zimmerman: No

Jeff Zimmerman: But offer dumb trades to Arizona is a smart move, they may accept

Jeff Zimmerman: offering

Anonymouse: What is the percentage of players turning down a player opt out? Offhand I can’t think of one, but I would imagine there must have been some due to injury or poor performance. It just seems like very high odds this Price deal is really 3/90 rather than 7/217, no?

Paul Swydan: That’s not really a fair question though, because only really, really good players are going to be able to get opt-outs in their contracts.

Jeff Zimmerman: and all I can think of who used them are CC and Zack

Ruby: According to FG’s stats, every single full-time 1B posted a negative ‘Def’ stat (in the ‘Off’/’Def’ breakdowns for WAR) in 2015. What gives?

Paul Swydan: First basemen suck at defense?

Jeff Zimmerman: and the 1B penalty is insanely high. It is tough to overcome it with good defensive plays

A cat: A recent post by a Red Sox insider pointed to a Buchholz trade once he displays he is healthy. DD doesn’t want to deal with the injury risk and apparently will use him to get back prospects to replace some that went to SD for Kimbrell. That leaves Porcello as a 2, higher than one would like. Would this not indicate a forthcoming trade for another top pitcher, such as Carrasco, Salazar or Ross?

Paul Swydan: When Buchholz displays he is healthy? When is that going to be? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would not be surprised to see Buchholz in the bullpen within the year

The Dude: For the record: Jeff, you won THT annual 2016 best article award. I’ve used it in over a dozen discussions over the past week. I want this on the record!

Paul Swydan: It has officially been entered onto the record!

Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks, I have been wanting to do that article for years. Was a huge pain, but worth it to see it done.

Paul Swydan: Huge pain is an understatement. Jeff and I had to Gchat for close to 3 hours to iron that thing out, ha.

Jake Arrieta’s Beard: Schwarber for Carlos Gonzalez? I really really really hope the Cubs don’t come anywhere near that. Carlos is both a complete product of Coors and an endless injury concern. If Schwarber is to be traded, surely he can fetch a better return than that.

Jeff Zimmerman: It was only 3 hours?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he should. His value will really depend on where he can play acceptable defense

Paul Swydan: You would think a Cubs fan who just watched put up the best season of his career in a Cubs uniform would think twice before trotting out the foolish “product of Coors” BS.

Paul Swydan: just watched Dexter Fowler

Jordan: Why would the Rockies need to eat any money in a Schwarber/CarGo deal? CarGo had a great year, specifically the second half, Schwarber is an unproven player (albeit with big potential and big power), CarGo is only going to make 37 mil over the next 2 years, and I think he would get more then that if he was a FA, if anything it seems like the Cubs would need to kick something in.

Paul Swydan: CarGo is still an injury risk, is why. And because the Cubs would have the leverage in that trade scenario, as Schwarber is more valuable in a vacuum. That CarGo may be a better fit on the Cubs’ roster doesn’t make much difference in the trade scenario. Chicago could trade Schwarber anywhere.

Paul Swydan: And I don’t think CarGo would make 20 a year if he was a FA right now.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Cubs could keep Schwarber and spend $18.5M a year and get a free agent. And Cargo has had one healthy year

Tom: Can you ever foresee radar data (that is currently collected by MLB teams) being added to WAR or to player projections?

Paul Swydan: I mean, if we had that data…maybe? I’d certainly love to have that data, but to my knowledge we don’t have anything beyond temperature at first pitch.

Jeff Zimmerman: The teams may already use it, but not until it is available to the public

Jake Arrieta’s Beard: CarGo’s wRC+ @ Coors = 137. CarGo’s wRC+ on the road = 101. How exactly is calling him a product of Coors BS?

Jeff Zimmerman: This is all Paul’s

Paul Swydan: Because balls don’t break the same way at Coors as they do on the road. By the time Rockies’ hitters adjust to how the ball breaks away from Coors, the road trip is over. Look at Walker, Holliday, Fowler, etc. The good hitters who leave Coors continue to hit just as well.

The Dude: Are you surprised that Park only got 1mil more guaranteed than Kang?

Paul Swydan: No, not really. It’s not like he has a ton of leverage.

Jeff Zimmerman: No since he is limited to just 1B or DH

Paul Swydan: And we are limited in the time we can devote to this chat, so we’re going to call it a night. No chat next week, I’ll be on my flight home from the Winter Meetings at our normal time. But we’ll pick it up in two weeks. Thanks for hanging out tonight!