2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
About two weeks ago, Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece for this site examining the very real possibility that, as presently constituted, the Chicago Cubs are the best team in the majors. That claim was based, in no small part, on how the club possessed then — and still possesses today — the league’s best collective Steamer WAR projection. Given the numbers one finds below, it wouldn’t be surprising to find — when the present series of forecasts is complete — that the Cubs possess the top projected record by ZiPS, as well.

Among position players, the strengths are unsurprising. Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, and Anthony Rizzo amassed a total of 18 wins between them in 2015. Because negative regression is the rule, and not the exception, with regard to these sorts of star-level performances, ZiPS doesn’t call for an exact repeat of last year’s production. As a trio, however, that group is expected to log around 15 wins. That figure alone would represent a better mark than the overall totals posted by the position players of eight clubs in 2015.

Elsewhere, it isn’t entirely clear where Joe Maddon et al. will deploy Javier Baez. After recording starts at second, third, and short this past season both in Chicago and at Triple-A Iowa, Baez has recently made appearances in center field with Santurce, his Puerto Rican winter league club. He appears, within the depth chart below, as a platoon partner with Kyle Schwarber — although that’s a product more of “idle speculation” than “actual facts.” Whatever the particulars, ZiPS is optimistic regarding Baez’s 2016 campaign, calling for slightly more than two wins.

Pitchers
The current post represents the 12th out of 30 such team-specific projections scheduled to appear here this offseason. Among those 12, right-hander Jake Arrieta’s marks (186.1 IP, 5.4 zWAR) represent the best thus far among all pitchers — ahead, for example, both of Felix Hernandez and David Price. Based solely on 2015’s numbers, that’s not surprising, of course. But consider the ZiPS forecasts from as recently as the 2013-14 offseason:

At this same time two years ago, Hernandez and Price were still considered stars; Arrieta, on the other hand, more or less a replacement-level end-of-the-rotation starter. He’s accounted for more than 12 wins in the meantime.

The back end of the bullpen is composed of pitchers who, while lacking Arrieta’s upside, at least possess similar trajectories. Justin Grimm, Hector Rondon, and Pedro Strop are all cast-offs of one sort or another and will make less than $10 million collectively — this, while handling the highest-leverage innings with (what is expected to be) aplomb.

Bench/Prospects
Given the uncertainties present on an otherwise strong Cubs roster — the question of Jason Heyward’s center-field defense, the relatively modest outlook for Jorge Soler, the depth of the rotation — it’s possible that the club will be compelled to exchange some extra pieces for another key player. Until then, however, there remains a collection of useful reserves and prospects. Infielder/outfielder Arismendy Alcantara (585 PA, 1.6 zWAR), outfielder Albert Almora (523 PA, 1.4 zWAR), and corner infielder Christian Villanueva (539 PA, 1.4 zWAR), among others, all profile as serviceable replacements for an injured or ineffective starter. Among pitchers, the recently acquired Adam Warren (101.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) receives a markedly optimistic projection.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.