2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
About two weeks ago, Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece for this site examining the very real possibility that, as presently constituted, the Chicago Cubs are the best team in the majors. That claim was based, in no small part, on how the club possessed then — and still possesses today — the league’s best collective Steamer WAR projection. Given the numbers one finds below, it wouldn’t be surprising to find — when the present series of forecasts is complete — that the Cubs possess the top projected record by ZiPS, as well.

Among position players, the strengths are unsurprising. Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, and Anthony Rizzo amassed a total of 18 wins between them in 2015. Because negative regression is the rule, and not the exception, with regard to these sorts of star-level performances, ZiPS doesn’t call for an exact repeat of last year’s production. As a trio, however, that group is expected to log around 15 wins. That figure alone would represent a better mark than the overall totals posted by the position players of eight clubs in 2015.

Elsewhere, it isn’t entirely clear where Joe Maddon et al. will deploy Javier Baez. After recording starts at second, third, and short this past season both in Chicago and at Triple-A Iowa, Baez has recently made appearances in center field with Santurce, his Puerto Rican winter league club. He appears, within the depth chart below, as a platoon partner with Kyle Schwarber — although that’s a product more of “idle speculation” than “actual facts.” Whatever the particulars, ZiPS is optimistic regarding Baez’s 2016 campaign, calling for slightly more than two wins.

Pitchers
The current post represents the 12th out of 30 such team-specific projections scheduled to appear here this offseason. Among those 12, right-hander Jake Arrieta’s marks (186.1 IP, 5.4 zWAR) represent the best thus far among all pitchers — ahead, for example, both of Felix Hernandez and David Price. Based solely on 2015’s numbers, that’s not surprising, of course. But consider the ZiPS forecasts from as recently as the 2013-14 offseason:

2014 ZiPS Projections: Arrieta, Hernandez, Price

Player	Club	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA-	FIP-	zWAR
Jake Arrieta	CHN	139.2	7.4	4.5	1.1	117	117	0.6
Felix Hernandez	SEA	211.1	9.4	2.1	0.7	76	73	4.2
David Price	TBA	198.0	8.6	2.1	0.8	81	78	4.3

At this same time two years ago, Hernandez and Price were still considered stars; Arrieta, on the other hand, more or less a replacement-level end-of-the-rotation starter. He’s accounted for more than 12 wins in the meantime.

The back end of the bullpen is composed of pitchers who, while lacking Arrieta’s upside, at least possess similar trajectories. Justin Grimm, Hector Rondon, and Pedro Strop are all cast-offs of one sort or another and will make less than $10 million collectively — this, while handling the highest-leverage innings with (what is expected to be) aplomb.

Bench/Prospects
Given the uncertainties present on an otherwise strong Cubs roster — the question of Jason Heyward’s center-field defense, the relatively modest outlook for Jorge Soler, the depth of the rotation — it’s possible that the club will be compelled to exchange some extra pieces for another key player. Until then, however, there remains a collection of useful reserves and prospects. Infielder/outfielder Arismendy Alcantara (585 PA, 1.6 zWAR), outfielder Albert Almora (523 PA, 1.4 zWAR), and corner infielder Christian Villanueva (539 PA, 1.4 zWAR), among others, all profile as serviceable replacements for an injured or ineffective starter. Among pitchers, the recently acquired Adam Warren (101.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) receives a markedly optimistic projection.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cubs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Kris Bryant	R	24	3B	658	94	148	28	5	29	106	14	4
Anthony Rizzo	L	26	1B	674	94	156	33	2	32	99	10	5
Jason Heyward	L	26	CF	613	85	149	29	3	17	66	18	4
Ben Zobrist	B	35	2B	560	76	133	31	4	14	56	7	4
Addison Russell	R	22	SS	500	61	116	26	3	14	59	7	3
Kyle Schwarber	L	23	LF	586	98	128	22	4	32	100	4	2
Dexter Fowler	B	30	CF	574	76	126	22	6	13	43	14	6
Javier Baez	R	23	SS	526	66	120	22	3	22	71	18	6
Austin Jackson	R	29	CF	611	72	146	29	7	10	52	14	8
Miguel Montero	L	32	C	458	38	92	14	0	12	54	0	2
Arismendy Alcantara	B	24	2B	585	69	124	26	9	16	63	19	6
Christian Villanueva	R	25	3B	539	59	120	28	2	15	65	4	4
Albert Almora	R	22	CF	523	60	127	25	4	8	52	6	5
Willson Contreras	R	24	C	438	48	98	20	3	8	44	4	4
Chris Denorfia	R	35	LF	325	39	77	14	2	6	29	5	2
Jeimer Candelario	B	22	3B	546	60	124	31	4	12	63	0	3
Jorge Soler	R	24	RF	385	47	90	21	2	14	55	3	1
Tommy La Stella	L	27	2B	343	32	82	17	2	4	36	4	1
Chris Coghlan	L	31	LF	435	49	94	20	4	10	37	8	3
Matt Szczur	R	26	CF	482	52	110	18	3	6	40	20	7
John Andreoli	R	26	CF	424	47	91	14	5	3	29	26	6
Chris Valaika	R	30	SS	387	37	83	17	1	8	39	2	2
Billy McKinney	L	21	RF	504	52	110	25	4	10	51	3	3
David Freitas	R	27	C	298	31	65	14	0	8	29	1	0
David Ross	R	39	C	160	9	25	7	0	4	12	1	0
Taylor Davis	R	26	C	251	28	56	14	1	5	28	0	1
Luke Carlin	B	35	C	207	20	37	10	1	2	16	1	1
Dan Vogelbach	L	23	1B	445	54	95	19	1	12	50	2	3
Taylor Teagarden	R	32	C	188	18	35	6	0	5	20	0	0
Jonathan Mota	R	29	SS	311	29	69	11	2	4	27	2	1
Kelly Dugan	L	25	RF	397	43	85	16	2	8	38	1	1
Mike O’Neill	L	28	LF	428	45	101	12	2	1	27	7	5
Brendan Ryan	R	34	SS	213	19	41	9	1	1	17	2	1
Juan Perez	R	29	LF	410	44	94	24	3	8	38	12	4
Adron Chambers	L	29	LF	308	30	65	12	2	4	24	6	4
Jonathan Herrera	B	31	2B	170	20	37	5	1	1	14	2	2
Gleyber Torres	R	19	SS	550	49	111	18	4	5	45	14	15
Jacob Hannemann	L	25	CF	555	53	105	20	5	7	44	18	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Kris Bryant	658	12.2%	30.2%	.222	.350	.263	.362	.485	.370
Anthony Rizzo	674	11.0%	17.8%	.231	.289	.271	.369	.502	.375
Jason Heyward	613	10.1%	17.0%	.159	.311	.274	.352	.433	.349
Ben Zobrist	560	11.4%	12.5%	.166	.291	.273	.356	.439	.346
Addison Russell	500	6.8%	25.2%	.161	.317	.252	.307	.413	.316
Kyle Schwarber	586	11.1%	26.8%	.246	.294	.250	.337	.496	.358
Dexter Fowler	574	12.4%	22.1%	.148	.317	.255	.352	.403	.340
Javier Baez	526	5.9%	28.9%	.195	.313	.248	.301	.443	.330
Austin Jackson	611	7.0%	22.6%	.131	.328	.261	.315	.392	.317
Miguel Montero	458	11.1%	23.4%	.126	.284	.232	.325	.358	.298
Arismendy Alcantara	585	6.3%	28.4%	.171	.301	.231	.280	.402	.302
Christian Villanueva	539	5.4%	23.0%	.155	.289	.242	.289	.397	.299
Albert Almora	523	3.6%	15.3%	.115	.290	.257	.286	.372	.289
Willson Contreras	438	7.1%	21.7%	.125	.302	.246	.307	.371	.303
Chris Denorfia	325	7.1%	19.4%	.121	.307	.258	.312	.379	.305
Jeimer Candelario	546	5.9%	21.4%	.147	.292	.243	.289	.390	.296
Jorge Soler	385	8.8%	27.3%	.194	.330	.261	.327	.455	.335
Tommy La Stella	343	8.5%	10.5%	.108	.289	.267	.333	.375	.313
Chris Coghlan	435	9.9%	19.3%	.151	.287	.244	.323	.395	.316
Matt Szczur	482	6.0%	18.9%	.096	.300	.249	.300	.345	.296
John Andreoli	424	9.2%	25.5%	.088	.330	.242	.317	.330	.303
Chris Valaika	387	4.9%	22.2%	.121	.282	.233	.279	.354	.276
Billy McKinney	504	7.5%	22.0%	.138	.294	.242	.302	.380	.300
David Freitas	298	6.0%	19.1%	.139	.271	.238	.293	.377	.293
David Ross	160	10.0%	36.3%	.135	.263	.177	.259	.312	.232
Taylor Davis	251	5.6%	16.3%	.132	.268	.238	.280	.370	.284
Luke Carlin	207	10.1%	20.8%	.100	.255	.204	.293	.304	.270
Dan Vogelbach	445	10.6%	23.1%	.145	.295	.242	.324	.387	.315
Taylor Teagarden	188	7.4%	35.6%	.123	.297	.203	.266	.326	.259
Jonathan Mota	311	4.2%	22.5%	.093	.294	.235	.269	.328	.260
Kelly Dugan	397	5.3%	29.7%	.121	.322	.234	.293	.355	.285
Mike O’Neill	428	10.0%	9.3%	.050	.296	.268	.343	.318	.301
Brendan Ryan	213	6.1%	22.5%	.072	.272	.210	.265	.282	.247
Juan Perez	410	3.7%	20.2%	.139	.289	.243	.275	.382	.291
Adron Chambers	308	7.5%	21.8%	.101	.293	.236	.298	.337	.283
Jonathan Herrera	170	4.7%	17.1%	.064	.283	.237	.277	.301	.253
Gleyber Torres	550	6.4%	30.0%	.080	.309	.218	.268	.298	.266
Jacob Hannemann	555	5.0%	30.6%	.100	.290	.205	.250	.305	.251

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Kris Bryant	658	6.5	130	2	5.7	Harlond Clift
Anthony Rizzo	674	6.9	137	5	4.8	Boog Powell
Jason Heyward	613	5.9	115	6	4.7	Von Hayes
Ben Zobrist	560	5.8	117	-3	3.2	Tony Phillips
Addison Russell	500	4.6	96	4	2.8	Jeff Blauser
Kyle Schwarber	586	6.0	126	-9	2.4	Greg Vaughn
Dexter Fowler	574	5.2	107	-8	2.4	Jim Russell
Javier Baez	526	4.9	101	-6	2.3	Tony Batista
Austin Jackson	611	4.5	93	0	2.1	Cesar Geronimo
Miguel Montero	458	4.0	88	1	2.0	Ed Bailey
Arismendy Alcantara	585	4.1	85	1	1.6	Jose Uribe
Christian Villanueva	539	4.0	86	2	1.4	Lou Lucca
Albert Almora	523	3.8	80	7	1.4	Glenn Wilson
Willson Contreras	438	4.0	85	-5	1.3	Dave Sax
Chris Denorfia	325	4.3	89	7	1.1	Milt Thompson
Jeimer Candelario	546	3.9	85	0	1.1	Dale Sveum
Jorge Soler	385	5.5	113	-4	1.1	Ron Swoboda
Tommy La Stella	343	4.7	95	-3	1.0	Ken Boswell
Chris Coghlan	435	4.6	97	0	0.9	Ryan Spilborghs
Matt Szczur	482	3.9	77	1	0.8	Lemmie Miller
John Andreoli	424	4.1	78	-2	0.8	Kevin Rhomberg
Chris Valaika	387	3.4	73	0	0.5	Jason Wood
Billy McKinney	504	4.0	86	2	0.5	Nick Markakis
David Freitas	298	4.0	83	-7	0.4	Dave Van Gorder
David Ross	160	2.7	57	3	0.3	Raul Chavez
Taylor Davis	251	3.6	77	-4	0.3	Mark Parent
Luke Carlin	207	3.0	65	-2	0.1	Chad Kreuter
Dan Vogelbach	445	4.4	95	-3	0.1	Don Barbara
Taylor Teagarden	188	2.9	62	-1	0.1	George Mitterwald
Jonathan Mota	311	3.1	63	0	0.1	Johnnie LeMaster
Kelly Dugan	397	3.6	77	2	0.0	Rick Sofield
Mike O’Neill	428	3.9	84	-2	0.0	Jim Eppard
Brendan Ryan	213	2.6	51	2	0.0	Chris Petersen
Juan Perez	410	3.9	79	-2	-0.3	Kyle Logan
Adron Chambers	308	3.5	75	-2	-0.5	Jeff Wetherby
Jonathan Herrera	170	2.8	59	-3	-0.6	Edgar Caceres
Gleyber Torres	550	2.4	56	-2	-0.9	Felipe Lopez
Jacob Hannemann	555	2.8	52	-3	-1.2	Norm Hutchins

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jake Arrieta	R	30	30	30	186.3	194	50	13	145	57	53
Jon Lester	L	32	30	30	199.0	194	46	17	174	71	66
John Lackey	R	37	28	28	183.0	156	42	20	170	73	68
Kyle Hendricks	R	26	28	28	159.7	125	40	14	154	68	64
Adam Warren	R	28	47	8	101.7	92	31	7	87	36	34
Jason Hammel	R	33	26	25	144.3	125	39	19	138	67	63
Dan Haren	R	35	27	27	152.7	123	32	23	149	73	68
Travis Wood	L	29	40	19	135.7	127	52	14	125	62	58
Ryan Williams	R	24	27	25	134.3	89	30	13	136	64	60
Dallas Beeler	R	27	22	22	120.3	82	39	10	122	58	54
Pedro Strop	R	31	67	0	59.0	71	24	5	43	19	18
Hector Rondon	R	28	64	0	64.0	62	18	5	55	22	21
Justin Grimm	R	27	69	0	59.0	71	25	5	46	20	19
Tsuyoshi Wada	L	35	22	22	115.3	89	37	15	117	59	55
Tommy Hunter	R	29	60	0	65.3	57	14	6	59	25	23
Trevor Cahill	R	28	36	18	115.0	99	53	12	112	60	56
Eric Jokisch	L	26	22	21	117.3	82	38	14	123	62	58
Neil Ramirez	R	27	40	0	33.7	39	14	3	27	12	11
Pierce Johnson	R	25	19	19	97.3	83	47	11	94	51	48
Rex Brothers	L	28	68	0	58.3	70	42	5	45	25	23
Carl Edwards	R	24	39	0	47.0	59	31	3	36	19	18
Zac Rosscup	L	28	51	0	46.7	59	24	5	37	19	18
Jean Machi	R	34	61	0	58.7	49	18	6	54	26	24
Brandon Gomes	R	31	56	0	57.7	53	16	7	53	26	24
Clayton Richard	L	32	20	10	67.0	37	17	8	73	36	34
Rafael Soriano	R	36	25	0	24.0	21	7	3	23	11	10
Blake Cooper	R	28	51	0	64.3	55	30	5	60	30	28
Spencer Patton	R	28	52	0	64.3	73	26	9	55	30	28
Drew Rucinski	R	27	21	19	105.0	81	41	15	110	60	56
Armando Rivero	R	28	43	0	53.3	58	26	6	47	26	24
Fernando Rodney	R	39	58	0	55.3	54	25	6	49	27	25
Daniel Schlereth	L	30	15	0	16.0	13	11	2	15	9	8
Edgar Olmos	L	26	39	2	58.7	44	29	6	58	31	29
Frank Batista	R	27	39	9	83.3	55	33	10	89	47	44
Scott Barnes	L	28	30	3	48.0	42	20	8	48	28	26
Andury Acevedo	R	25	35	0	45.0	38	30	6	43	26	24
Corey Black	R	24	32	15	94.3	97	56	15	90	57	53
P.J. Francescon	R	27	41	4	68.7	53	32	10	71	41	38
Rob Zastryzny	L	24	19	19	86.3	67	36	17	96	59	55

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jake Arrieta	186.3	754	25.7%	6.6%	.269	2.56	2.87	65	73
Jon Lester	199.0	817	23.7%	5.6%	.283	2.98	3.11	76	79
John Lackey	183.0	761	20.5%	5.5%	.278	3.34	3.58	85	91
Kyle Hendricks	159.7	673	18.6%	5.9%	.289	3.61	3.66	92	93
Adam Warren	101.7	423	21.7%	7.3%	.278	3.01	3.28	77	83
Jason Hammel	144.3	610	20.5%	6.4%	.283	3.93	4.06	100	103
Dan Haren	152.7	639	19.2%	5.0%	.276	4.01	4.18	103	106
Travis Wood	135.7	584	21.7%	8.9%	.287	3.85	3.80	98	96
Ryan Williams	134.3	569	15.6%	5.3%	.286	4.02	3.92	103	99
Dallas Beeler	120.3	522	15.7%	7.5%	.291	4.04	3.93	103	99
Pedro Strop	59.0	244	29.1%	9.8%	.273	2.75	3.13	70	79
Hector Rondon	64.0	265	23.4%	6.8%	.281	2.95	3.08	75	78
Justin Grimm	59.0	248	28.6%	10.1%	.283	2.90	3.18	74	80
Tsuyoshi Wada	115.3	500	17.8%	7.4%	.288	4.29	4.35	110	110
Tommy Hunter	65.3	269	21.2%	5.2%	.278	3.17	3.21	81	81
Trevor Cahill	115.0	510	19.4%	10.4%	.292	4.38	4.26	112	108
Eric Jokisch	117.3	513	16.0%	7.4%	.292	4.45	4.42	114	112
Neil Ramirez	33.7	142	27.4%	9.9%	.282	2.94	3.34	75	85
Pierce Johnson	97.3	433	19.2%	10.9%	.290	4.44	4.56	114	115
Rex Brothers	58.3	262	26.7%	16.0%	.280	3.55	4.14	91	105
Carl Edwards	47.0	208	28.4%	14.9%	.292	3.45	3.52	88	89
Zac Rosscup	46.7	201	29.3%	11.9%	.288	3.47	3.63	89	92
Jean Machi	58.7	248	19.8%	7.3%	.276	3.68	3.74	94	95
Brandon Gomes	57.7	242	21.9%	6.6%	.280	3.75	3.73	96	95
Clayton Richard	67.0	291	12.7%	5.8%	.286	4.57	4.42	117	112
Rafael Soriano	24.0	102	20.6%	6.9%	.282	3.75	3.91	96	99
Blake Cooper	64.3	283	19.4%	10.6%	.290	3.92	3.86	100	98
Spencer Patton	64.3	274	26.7%	9.5%	.284	3.92	4.06	100	103
Drew Rucinski	105.0	466	17.4%	8.8%	.294	4.80	4.82	123	122
Armando Rivero	53.3	233	24.9%	11.2%	.293	4.05	4.03	104	102
Fernando Rodney	55.3	240	22.5%	10.4%	.291	4.07	4.19	104	106
Daniel Schlereth	16.0	74	17.6%	14.9%	.277	4.50	5.23	115	132
Edgar Olmos	58.7	263	16.7%	11.0%	.287	4.45	4.53	114	115
Frank Batista	83.3	372	14.8%	8.9%	.294	4.75	4.74	121	120
Scott Barnes	48.0	212	19.8%	9.4%	.288	4.87	5.02	125	127
Andury Acevedo	45.0	208	18.3%	14.4%	.282	4.80	5.34	123	135
Corey Black	94.3	429	22.6%	13.1%	.294	5.06	5.15	129	130
P.J. Francescon	68.7	309	17.1%	10.4%	.290	4.98	5.00	127	126
Rob Zastryzny	86.3	391	17.1%	9.2%	.297	5.73	5.60	147	142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jake Arrieta	186.3	9.37	2.42	0.63	148	5.4	Orel Hershiser
Jon Lester	199.0	8.77	2.08	0.77	127	4.6	Jimmy Key
John Lackey	183.0	7.67	2.07	0.98	114	3.4	Tim Belcher
Kyle Hendricks	159.7	7.04	2.25	0.79	105	2.5	Mike Scott
Adam Warren	101.7	8.14	2.74	0.62	126	1.9	Julian Tavarez
Jason Hammel	144.3	7.80	2.43	1.19	97	1.6	Mike Smithson
Dan Haren	152.7	7.25	1.89	1.36	95	1.5	Bill Gullickson
Travis Wood	135.7	8.42	3.45	0.93	99	1.4	Rafael Roque
Ryan Williams	134.3	5.96	2.01	0.87	95	1.3	Tim Kester
Dallas Beeler	120.3	6.13	2.92	0.75	94	1.2	Chris Beasley
Pedro Strop	59.0	10.83	3.66	0.76	138	0.9	Dwayne Henry
Hector Rondon	64.0	8.72	2.53	0.70	129	0.9	Danys Baez
Justin Grimm	59.0	10.83	3.81	0.76	131	0.8	Hipolito Pichardo
Tsuyoshi Wada	115.3	6.95	2.89	1.17	89	0.8	Jim Deshaies
Tommy Hunter	65.3	7.86	1.93	0.83	120	0.7	Julio Mateo
Trevor Cahill	115.0	7.75	4.15	0.94	87	0.5	Steve Green
Eric Jokisch	117.3	6.29	2.92	1.07	85	0.5	Travis Baptist
Neil Ramirez	33.7	10.42	3.74	0.80	129	0.5	Derrick Turnbow
Pierce Johnson	97.3	7.68	4.35	1.02	86	0.4	Jose Oyervidez
Rex Brothers	58.3	10.81	6.48	0.77	107	0.3	Armando Almanza
Carl Edwards	47.0	11.30	5.94	0.57	110	0.3	Santiago Casilla
Zac Rosscup	46.7	11.37	4.63	0.96	109	0.3	Greg McCarthy
Jean Machi	58.7	7.51	2.76	0.92	103	0.3	Dave Wainhouse
Brandon Gomes	57.7	8.27	2.50	1.09	101	0.2	Greg Jones
Clayton Richard	67.0	4.97	2.28	1.07	83	0.1	Tony Fossas
Rafael Soriano	24.0	7.88	2.63	1.13	101	0.1	Matt Whiteside
Blake Cooper	64.3	7.70	4.20	0.70	97	0.0	Jake Robbins
Spencer Patton	64.3	10.22	3.64	1.26	97	0.0	Jonah Bayliss
Drew Rucinski	105.0	6.94	3.51	1.29	79	0.0	Joe Law
Armando Rivero	53.3	9.79	4.39	1.01	94	0.0	Calvin Jones
Fernando Rodney	55.3	8.79	4.07	0.98	93	0.0	Don McMahon
Daniel Schlereth	16.0	7.31	6.19	1.13	84	-0.1	Mike Barlow
Edgar Olmos	58.7	6.75	4.45	0.92	85	-0.2	Dean Brueggemann
Frank Batista	83.3	5.94	3.57	1.08	80	-0.2	Kevin Vent
Scott Barnes	48.0	7.88	3.75	1.50	78	-0.3	Scott Watkins
Andury Acevedo	45.0	7.60	6.00	1.20	79	-0.4	Agustin Montero
Corey Black	94.3	9.26	5.34	1.43	75	-0.4	Jeremy Guthrie
P.J. Francescon	68.7	6.94	4.19	1.31	76	-0.6	Mumba Rivera
Rob Zastryzny	86.3	6.99	3.75	1.77	66	-1.0	Mike Raczka

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.