2016 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Toronto.

Batters
In terms of results, Cincinnati’s 2015 season was unambiguously poor. In terms of indicators, it was much more ambiguously poor. By BaseRuns, the club ought to have won nine more games than they actually did in 2015 — and most of those potential wins appear to have been conceded by the offense. Sequencing was largely the culprit: despite producing the ninth-best park-adjusted batting line (92 wRC+) in the National League with the bases empty, the Reds recorded the very worst batting line (72 wRC+) with men in scoring postion.

Entering the 2016 campaign, the starting corps of the Reds’ offense actually appears to be quite strong. It isn’t surprising to find that Todd Frazier (624 PA, 3.6 zWAR) and Joey Votto (574 PA, 4.6 zWAR) are both projected to produce comfortably above-average seasons. But Jay Bruce, Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, and Brandon Phillips all profile as roughly average players, too.

Of some interest is how the Reds will manage left field. Eugenio Suarez (607 PA, 2.3 zWAR) would appear to represent a legitimate solution to the problem. There’s also Adam Duvall (536 PA, 1.7 zWAR), though, too. In both cases, the projected numbers are more optimistic than one might have otherwise supposed. Omitted from the tables below — because damn Szymborski submitted the relevant forecast as the author was shuffling off to bed — is Rule 5 selection Jake Cave. ZiPS projects Cave to slash .223/.274/.319 and record a -0.4 zWAR in just over 600 plate appearances.

Pitchers
Cincinnati traded not merely one of their own best pitchers, but one of the best pitchers in the league, at the deadline this past year, sending Johnny Cueto to Kansas City in exchange for a collection of prospects. Cueto, whose name was included among Kansas City’s projections, is forecast to produce roughly four wins in 2016. That figure, which would represent the best mark among Reds starters, has effectively been replaced by the worst one — in this case, Michael Lorenzen’s zero-win projection.

Of course, one can’t ignore the players included among that “collection of prospects,” either. Indeed, two of them — left-handers Brandon Finnegan (90.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) and John Lamb (149.1 IP, 2.0 zWAR) — occupy a place among Cincinnati’s provisional rotation. The former profiles as a league-average starter already, while the latter would do that were it not for a conservative innings projection.

In the bullpen, one continues to find the name Aroldis Chapman, whose departure for the Dodgers appeared certain enough that Jeff Sullivan took the trouble of authoring an entire post about it. As history illustrates, there isn’t a 1:1 correlation between upstanding conduct and success on the baseball field. ZiPS, an algorithm, understands only the latter.

Bench/Prospects
A weakness for the 2015 edition of the Reds wasn’t their starting corps, but rather the players called upon to replace the starters in case of injury. One finds, for example, that the triumvirate of Brennan Boesch, Jason Bourgeois, and Skip Schumaker produced three negative wins in roughly a full season’s worth of plate appearances. Avoiding the awful is one part of succeeding, and the 2015 Reds didn’t avoid it sufficiently.

As for how they’ll cope in 2016, there are options. If he doesn’t start in left, Suarez features the precise sort of profile that could allow him to patch holes at any defensive position. Two rookies — shortstop Alex Blandino and corner outfielder Jesse Winker — both already profile as bench-type bats, with more growth ahead. Among pitchers, left-hander Cody Reed — another piece in the Cueto trade — also profiles as something better than replacement-level already.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Reds Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joey Votto L 32 1B 574 73 130 30 2 19 63 7 3
Todd Frazier R 30 3B 624 79 145 31 2 27 86 12 7
Eugenio Suarez R 24 SS 607 68 140 27 4 18 65 8 6
Billy Hamilton B 25 CF 556 70 127 17 7 5 42 62 13
Adam Duvall R 27 3B 536 68 119 24 3 26 73 3 1
Brandon Phillips R 35 2B 556 61 140 20 1 11 66 11 3
Jay Bruce L 29 RF 604 76 132 31 3 25 88 9 4
Zack Cozart R 30 SS 426 49 97 19 3 9 42 4 1
Jesse Winker L 22 LF 541 69 127 23 2 17 61 7 3
Alex Blandino R 23 SS 518 64 119 27 3 12 47 6 11
Tucker Barnhart B 25 C 348 31 76 13 2 3 26 0 1
Devin Mesoraco R 28 C 241 26 52 11 0 9 30 1 1
Ramon Cabrera B 26 C 456 42 108 20 1 4 36 1 1
Jermaine Curtis R 28 3B 325 33 70 12 0 3 23 4 1
Phil Ervin R 23 LF 553 68 115 25 2 17 69 20 9
Ryan LaMarre R 27 CF 336 34 69 12 2 8 29 10 5
Ivan De Jesus R 29 3B 416 38 92 17 4 5 40 2 2
Juan Perez L 24 SS 485 46 104 19 3 6 39 17 9
Kris Negron R 30 SS 356 32 68 12 2 6 27 8 2
Kyle Skipworth L 26 C 280 29 46 10 1 12 32 0 1
Yorman Rodriguez R 23 RF 440 54 100 15 4 14 51 6 3
Tyler Holt! R 27 CF 510 50 104 14 4 1 27 20 5
Irving Falu B 33 2B 452 42 101 13 4 3 31 11 8
Donald Lutz L 27 LF 233 24 46 10 2 6 25 3 1
Brandon Allen L 30 1B 412 48 82 16 3 13 48 3 1
Hernan Iribarren L 32 3B 363 32 75 10 2 1 22 5 2
Steve Selsky R 26 RF 342 35 71 12 2 4 29 4 2
Juan Silva L 25 RF 356 37 72 13 3 4 28 14 8
Josh Satin R 31 1B 383 41 76 16 1 7 34 1 2
Ray Chang R 32 2B 249 22 54 10 0 1 17 1 1
Marquez Smith R 31 1B 432 46 85 17 2 9 40 2 2
Skip Schumaker L 36 LF 268 23 57 14 0 1 22 2 1
Jason Bourgeois R 34 CF 374 41 85 11 3 3 27 10 5
Juan Duran R 24 RF 368 38 69 13 2 13 44 2 3
Brennan Boesch L 31 RF 320 31 68 12 2 10 35 3 2
Chris Dominguez R 29 1B 426 43 89 18 2 13 47 7 5
Kyle Waldrop L 24 RF 524 51 114 22 3 10 47 8 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Joey Votto 574 19.5% 20.4% .200 .345 .286 .429 .486 .385
Todd Frazier 624 7.1% 20.5% .205 .284 .256 .316 .461 .341
Eugenio Suarez 607 6.6% 23.9% .161 .312 .254 .311 .415 .319
Billy Hamilton 556 6.5% 18.9% .090 .303 .250 .299 .340 .310
Adam Duvall 536 5.4% 25.6% .218 .276 .239 .288 .457 .320
Brandon Phillips 556 4.5% 12.6% .106 .292 .270 .309 .376 .302
Jay Bruce 604 8.9% 24.7% .207 .286 .244 .311 .451 .325
Zack Cozart 426 4.9% 15.5% .132 .273 .247 .287 .379 .286
Jesse Winker 541 8.9% 20.3% .161 .305 .261 .333 .422 .331
Alex Blandino 518 6.0% 18.1% .145 .286 .250 .302 .395 .314
Tucker Barnhart 348 8.0% 17.8% .083 .292 .244 .307 .327 .275
Devin Mesoraco 241 8.7% 20.7% .178 .274 .243 .320 .421 .320
Ramon Cabrera 456 6.1% 14.5% .081 .293 .255 .302 .336 .282
Jermaine Curtis 325 8.6% 13.2% .073 .278 .246 .330 .319 .297
Phil Ervin 553 7.8% 25.0% .162 .283 .232 .301 .394 .314
Ryan LaMarre 336 5.7% 31.0% .130 .310 .224 .279 .354 .288
Ivan De Jesus 416 7.5% 23.3% .105 .311 .243 .301 .348 .287
Juan Perez 485 4.7% 24.1% .095 .293 .229 .267 .324 .271
Kris Negron 356 5.6% 27.5% .105 .281 .211 .268 .316 .262
Kyle Skipworth 280 5.7% 45.7% .187 .288 .180 .240 .367 .265
Yorman Rodriguez 440 5.5% 29.3% .158 .317 .242 .285 .400 .302
Tyler Holt! 510 8.2% 21.4% .055 .294 .227 .294 .282 .269
Irving Falu 452 6.4% 10.8% .073 .271 .246 .295 .319 .278
Donald Lutz 233 5.6% 32.6% .148 .296 .213 .266 .361 .276
Brandon Allen 412 8.7% 24.5% .164 .264 .222 .289 .386 .293
Hernan Iribarren 363 6.6% 19.0% .051 .281 .227 .279 .278 .250
Steve Selsky 342 7.6% 29.2% .092 .327 .232 .302 .324 .282
Juan Silva 356 10.4% 25.3% .099 .308 .229 .312 .328 .301
Josh Satin 383 11.0% 24.3% .116 .290 .227 .314 .343 .294
Ray Chang 249 5.6% 18.9% .057 .290 .236 .283 .293 .255
Marquez Smith 432 8.3% 26.9% .124 .286 .219 .292 .343 .283
Skip Schumaker 268 7.5% 18.7% .069 .289 .234 .293 .303 .266
Jason Bourgeois 374 5.1% 12.6% .074 .272 .242 .282 .316 .274
Juan Duran 368 5.4% 44.6% .163 .329 .201 .245 .364 .268
Brennan Boesch 320 5.6% 25.3% .154 .276 .227 .272 .381 .284
Chris Dominguez 426 3.5% 31.9% .151 .295 .220 .254 .371 .277
Kyle Waldrop 524 4.2% 28.4% .117 .306 .230 .264 .347 .271

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Joey Votto 574 7.9 153 3 4.6 Todd Helton
Todd Frazier 624 5.3 112 4 3.6 Pinky Whitney
Eugenio Suarez 607 4.6 99 -3 2.3 Jeff Blauser
Billy Hamilton 556 4.4 77 9 2.1 Chuck Carr
Adam Duvall 536 4.7 102 -4 1.7 Mike Hessman
Brandon Phillips 556 4.4 89 3 1.7 Cookie Rojas
Jay Bruce 604 5.0 108 1 1.7 Eric Hinske
Zack Cozart 426 4.0 83 5 1.5 Robert Eenhoorn
Jesse Winker 541 5.2 107 -2 1.4 Matt Winters
Alex Blandino 518 3.9 91 -3 1.2 Reid Brignac
Tucker Barnhart 348 3.5 76 3 1.1 Eric Christopherson
Devin Mesoraco 241 4.7 103 -2 1.1 Todd Pratt
Ramon Cabrera 456 3.7 76 -3 0.8 Jamie Burke
Jermaine Curtis 325 3.9 81 0 0.7 Dave Chalk
Phil Ervin 553 4.2 91 1 0.6 Craig Monroe
Ryan LaMarre 336 3.4 74 2 0.4 Mark Doran
Ivan De Jesus 416 3.7 79 0 0.4 Eddie Pye
Juan Perez 485 3.0 63 2 0.0 Pedro Sanchez
Kris Negron 356 3.0 61 0 0.0 Kelly Dransfeldt
Kyle Skipworth 280 2.8 65 -3 0.0 Gary Tremblay
Yorman Rodriguez 440 4.1 87 -2 -0.1 Shawn Jeter
Tyler Holt! 510 3.1 61 2 -0.1 Carl Loadenthal
Irving Falu 452 3.2 70 -1 -0.3 Edgar Caceres
Donald Lutz 233 3.3 72 0 -0.4 Justin Bowles
Brandon Allen 412 3.9 85 0 -0.4 Nate Murphy
Hernan Iribarren 363 2.7 55 2 -0.5 Shane Turner
Steve Selsky 342 3.4 74 -2 -0.6 Vernon Thomas
Juan Silva 356 3.5 78 -3 -0.6 Mark Budzinski
Josh Satin 383 3.7 82 -2 -0.7 Chris Saunders
Ray Chang 249 2.9 60 -3 -0.7 Alex Prieto
Marquez Smith 432 3.4 75 0 -0.9 Derek Nicholson
Skip Schumaker 268 3.1 66 -3 -0.9 Orlando Palmeiro
Jason Bourgeois 374 3.2 66 -7 -1.0 Ken Woods
Juan Duran 368 2.9 66 -1 -1.1 Chris Hatcher
Brennan Boesch 320 3.6 78 -8 -1.2 Dann Howitt
Chris Dominguez 426 3.2 70 0 -1.3 Mike Rosamond
Kyle Waldrop 524 3.2 68 -4 -1.7 Brad Corley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Anthony DeSclafani R 26 29 29 178.0 146 51 16 173 80 75
John Lamb L 25 28 28 149.3 163 57 19 136 70 65
Raisel Iglesias R 26 24 24 133.0 127 36 16 129 60 56
Homer Bailey R 30 23 23 149.0 130 42 17 143 70 65
Aroldis Chapman L 28 63 0 63.3 112 29 5 36 14 13
Cody Reed L 23 25 23 137.0 127 45 19 136 70 65
Brandon Finnegan L 23 39 14 90.3 91 34 11 81 41 38
Tony Cingrani L 26 32 12 77.7 92 39 10 65 36 34
Jumbo Diaz R 32 66 0 68.3 72 22 7 60 28 26
Josh Smith R 28 29 26 156.7 123 56 20 161 87 81
Burke Badenhop R 33 63 0 62.3 42 16 5 62 28 26
Pedro Villarreal R 28 50 0 74.3 56 18 8 74 34 32
Manny Parra L 33 47 0 37.3 36 12 4 34 16 15
J.J. Hoover R 28 65 0 63.3 64 29 8 54 29 27
Layne Somsen R 27 27 3 55.3 51 27 6 52 28 26
Dayan Diaz R 27 37 0 63.3 60 29 7 58 30 28
Amir Garrett L 24 25 25 121.7 105 70 16 120 71 66
Nate Adcock R 28 32 0 39.7 36 17 4 37 19 18
Carlos Contreras R 25 39 7 73.3 74 48 9 65 40 37
Michael Lorenzen R 24 28 25 134.0 93 54 19 142 78 73
Sean Marshall L 33 13 0 11.7 11 5 1 11 6 6
Blake Wood R 30 45 0 47.3 53 27 5 41 24 22
Ryan Mattheus R 32 54 0 57.3 42 18 6 60 30 28
Keury Mella R 22 20 20 93.7 78 42 16 97 58 54
Jon Moscot R 24 18 18 101.0 70 35 18 109 62 58
Sam LeCure R 32 58 0 64.3 56 26 9 63 34 32
Donovan Hand R 30 40 9 90.3 60 24 15 98 54 50
Jason Marquis R 37 10 10 54.7 39 22 10 60 35 33
Jose de la Torre R 30 42 0 55.3 51 33 7 52 31 29
Stephen Johnson R 25 50 0 63.0 65 39 7 58 34 32
Drew Hayes R 28 49 0 64.3 59 36 8 62 35 33
Sal Romano R 22 26 25 125.3 83 53 17 137 78 73
Collin Balester R 30 41 0 49.0 36 21 7 51 29 27
Robert Stephenson R 23 25 25 126.3 127 70 24 121 79 74
Keyvius Sampson R 25 30 22 115.7 103 69 18 117 74 69
Dylan Axelrod R 30 27 20 119.3 88 38 23 131 77 72
Miguel Celestino R 26 42 0 65.7 58 31 12 67 42 39
David Holmberg L 24 25 23 132.0 83 51 25 146 88 82
Tim Melville R 26 21 21 104.0 75 56 21 116 76 71

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Anthony DeSclafani 178.0 758 19.3% 6.7% .291 3.79 3.55 95 88
John Lamb 149.3 641 25.4% 8.9% .296 3.92 3.92 98 97
Raisel Iglesias 133.0 564 22.5% 6.4% .300 3.79 3.81 95 95
Homer Bailey 149.0 632 20.6% 6.6% .289 3.93 3.85 99 96
Aroldis Chapman 63.3 255 43.9% 11.4% .296 1.85 2.21 46 55
Cody Reed 137.0 592 21.5% 7.6% .297 4.27 4.25 107 106
Brandon Finnegan 90.3 386 23.6% 8.8% .286 3.79 4.03 95 100
Tony Cingrani 77.7 337 27.3% 11.6% .285 3.94 4.01 99 100
Jumbo Diaz 68.3 287 25.1% 7.7% .290 3.42 3.31 86 82
Josh Smith 156.7 687 17.9% 8.2% .295 4.65 4.48 117 111
Burke Badenhop 62.3 265 15.9% 6.0% .284 3.75 3.48 94 86
Pedro Villarreal 74.3 315 17.8% 5.7% .288 3.87 3.82 97 95
Manny Parra 37.3 158 22.8% 7.6% .286 3.62 3.59 91 89
J.J. Hoover 63.3 273 23.5% 10.6% .271 3.84 4.11 96 102
Layne Somsen 55.3 245 20.8% 11.0% .291 4.23 4.36 106 108
Dayan Diaz 63.3 277 21.7% 10.5% .288 3.98 4.22 100 105
Amir Garrett 121.7 555 18.9% 12.6% .292 4.88 5.07 122 126
Nate Adcock 39.7 173 20.8% 9.8% .289 4.08 4.09 102 102
Carlos Contreras 73.3 333 22.2% 14.4% .283 4.54 4.75 114 118
Michael Lorenzen 134.0 598 15.6% 9.0% .289 4.90 4.89 123 121
Sean Marshall 11.7 51 21.5% 9.8% .302 4.63 3.93 116 98
Blake Wood 47.3 210 25.3% 12.9% .293 4.18 4.07 105 101
Ryan Mattheus 57.3 250 16.8% 7.2% .297 4.40 4.00 110 99
Keury Mella 93.7 420 18.6% 10.0% .291 5.19 5.22 130 130
Jon Moscot 101.0 447 15.7% 7.8% .285 5.17 5.25 130 130
Sam LeCure 64.3 282 19.9% 9.2% .286 4.48 4.50 112 112
Donovan Hand 90.3 393 15.3% 6.1% .287 4.98 4.92 125 122
Jason Marquis 54.7 246 15.8% 8.9% .289 5.43 5.37 136 133
Jose de la Torre 55.3 251 20.3% 13.2% .287 4.72 4.86 118 121
Stephen Johnson 63.0 286 22.7% 13.6% .298 4.57 4.59 115 114
Drew Hayes 64.3 291 20.3% 12.4% .294 4.62 4.72 116 117
Sal Romano 125.3 566 14.7% 9.4% .296 5.24 5.04 131 125
Collin Balester 49.0 219 16.4% 9.6% .289 4.96 5.02 124 125
Robert Stephenson 126.3 570 22.3% 12.3% .284 5.27 5.45 132 135
Keyvius Sampson 115.7 533 19.3% 12.9% .293 5.37 5.32 135 132
Dylan Axelrod 119.3 527 16.7% 7.2% .290 5.43 5.22 136 130
Miguel Celestino 65.7 295 19.7% 10.5% .289 5.35 5.32 134 132
David Holmberg 132.0 593 14.0% 8.6% .285 5.59 5.71 140 142
Tim Melville 104.0 484 15.5% 11.6% .291 6.14 6.11 154 152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Anthony DeSclafani 178.0 7.38 2.58 0.81 101 2.5 Mike Scott
John Lamb 149.3 9.83 3.44 1.15 98 2.0 Jim Deshaies
Raisel Iglesias 133.0 8.59 2.44 1.08 101 2.0 Aaron Harang
Homer Bailey 149.0 7.85 2.54 1.03 98 1.9 Mike Scott
Aroldis Chapman 63.3 15.92 4.12 0.71 208 1.8 Billy Wagner
Cody Reed 137.0 8.34 2.96 1.25 90 1.1 Horacio Estrada
Brandon Finnegan 90.3 9.07 3.39 1.10 101 1.1 Tim Lollar
Tony Cingrani 77.7 10.66 4.52 1.16 97 0.8 Brian Fuentes
Jumbo Diaz 68.3 9.49 2.90 0.92 112 0.6 Joe Borowski
Josh Smith 156.7 7.06 3.22 1.15 82 0.6 Rick Foley
Burke Badenhop 62.3 6.07 2.31 0.72 102 0.3 Jack Russell
Pedro Villarreal 74.3 6.78 2.18 0.97 99 0.3 Tim McNab
Manny Parra 37.3 8.69 2.90 0.97 106 0.2 Vic Darensbourg
J.J. Hoover 63.3 9.10 4.12 1.14 100 0.2 Derrick Turnbow
Layne Somsen 55.3 8.30 4.39 0.98 91 0.2 Ryan Baker
Dayan Diaz 63.3 8.53 4.12 1.00 96 0.1 Joel Moore
Amir Garrett 121.7 7.76 5.18 1.18 79 0.1 Mike Remlinger
Nate Adcock 39.7 8.16 3.85 0.91 94 0.1 Matt Palmer
Carlos Contreras 73.3 9.09 5.89 1.11 85 0.0 Andrew Brown
Michael Lorenzen 134.0 6.25 3.63 1.28 78 0.0 Ken Luckham
Sean Marshall 11.7 8.46 3.85 0.77 83 0.0 Mike Mohler
Blake Wood 47.3 10.08 5.14 0.95 92 -0.1 Bart Evans
Ryan Mattheus 57.3 6.60 2.83 0.94 87 -0.2 Bob Scanlan
Keury Mella 93.7 7.49 4.03 1.54 74 -0.3 Matt Goodson
Jon Moscot 101.0 6.24 3.12 1.60 74 -0.3 Scott Bakkum
Sam LeCure 64.3 7.84 3.64 1.26 86 -0.4 Jim Dedrick
Donovan Hand 90.3 5.98 2.39 1.50 77 -0.4 Kris Wilson
Jason Marquis 54.7 6.42 3.62 1.65 71 -0.4 Ed Riley
Jose de la Torre 55.3 8.30 5.37 1.14 81 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Stephen Johnson 63.0 9.29 5.57 1.00 84 -0.4 Bill Bene
Drew Hayes 64.3 8.26 5.04 1.12 83 -0.5 Jake Robbins
Sal Romano 125.3 5.96 3.81 1.22 73 -0.5 Chris Kinsey
Collin Balester 49.0 6.61 3.86 1.29 77 -0.5 Chuck Smith
Robert Stephenson 126.3 9.05 4.99 1.71 73 -0.5 Mike Buddie
Keyvius Sampson 115.7 8.01 5.37 1.40 71 -0.8 John Ambrose
Dylan Axelrod 119.3 6.64 2.87 1.74 71 -0.8 Nerio Rodriguez
Miguel Celestino 65.7 7.95 4.25 1.64 72 -1.0 Mumba Rivera
David Holmberg 132.0 5.66 3.48 1.70 69 -1.2 Doug Lindsey
Tim Melville 104.0 6.49 4.85 1.82 62 -1.6 Nick Skuse

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Daryl
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Daryl

No Zach Weiss?

Dan Szymborski
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Dan Szymborski

I will run Weiss and add him to the 2016 projections.