2016 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Colorado batters produced the third-lowest cumulative WAR among their major-league peers last year, falling just short of the 10-win threshold. That’s one relevant point when considering the Rockies’ prospects for 2016. Another? That the club also hasn’t altered the roster in any substantive way this offseason. There are, of course, other means by which a team can improve from one year to the next. The promotion of young players from within the system, for example. Or simply by way of positive regression. But even ZiPS — which, like other projections systems, is largely a regression machine — doesn’t call for much improvement in that way.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado (612 PA, 4.1 zWAR) appears to have developed into a real star, combining a high-contact, high-power offensive profile with above-average defense. Charlie Blackmon (638 PA, 1.8 zWAR) and Carlos Gonzalez (473 PA, 1.8 zWAR) are also roughly average. After that, however, the returns among the starting contingent are decidedly less encouraging. Outfielder Gerardo Parra (584 PA, 1.0 zWAR), whose acquisition rendered Corey Dickerson expendable, is best regarded as a solid bench player, at this point.

Pitchers
The pitching staff, on the other hand, does present some real (if relative) cause for optimism. Rockies starters actually produced the second-lowest collective WAR in the majors last season. So, roughly as poor as their offensive counterparts. Examining the projections for 2016, however, one finds three pitchers — Jorge de la Rosa (143.0 IP, 2.7 zWAR), Jon Gray (140.1 IP, 2.2 zWAR), and Chad Bettis (138.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) — who profile as average or better. Given adequate health, that triumvirate alone could outpeform last year’s entire rotation.

A club which occupies Colorado’s likely place on the win curve doesn’t typically benefit from the services of even the most elite reliever. As such, the recent acquisition of Jake McGee (53.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) remains perplexing. That doesn’t curtail the strength of his personal projection, however, which is strong. Strong strength, is what it has. Inside of it. Jake McGee’s projections.

Bench/Prospects
Colorado actually does possess a decent collection of legitimate prospects who are also relatively close to the majors. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, Trevor Story (543 PA, 1.6 zWAR) is nearly an average big-leaguer already, while infielder Cristhian Adames (558 PA, 1.3 zWAR), third baseman Ryan McMahon (565 PA, 1.1 zWAR), and Raimel Tapia (600 PA, 1.0 zWAR) all profile as competent bench guys. Among the pitchers, the effect is equally pronounced, as both Jeff Hoffman (117.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Antonio Senzatela (135.0 IP, 1.1 zWAR) are well-acquitted by the projections.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.