2016 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Colorado batters produced the third-lowest cumulative WAR among their major-league peers last year, falling just short of the 10-win threshold. That’s one relevant point when considering the Rockies’ prospects for 2016. Another? That the club also hasn’t altered the roster in any substantive way this offseason. There are, of course, other means by which a team can improve from one year to the next. The promotion of young players from within the system, for example. Or simply by way of positive regression. But even ZiPS — which, like other projections systems, is largely a regression machine — doesn’t call for much improvement in that way.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado (612 PA, 4.1 zWAR) appears to have developed into a real star, combining a high-contact, high-power offensive profile with above-average defense. Charlie Blackmon (638 PA, 1.8 zWAR) and Carlos Gonzalez (473 PA, 1.8 zWAR) are also roughly average. After that, however, the returns among the starting contingent are decidedly less encouraging. Outfielder Gerardo Parra (584 PA, 1.0 zWAR), whose acquisition rendered Corey Dickerson expendable, is best regarded as a solid bench player, at this point.

Pitchers
The pitching staff, on the other hand, does present some real (if relative) cause for optimism. Rockies starters actually produced the second-lowest collective WAR in the majors last season. So, roughly as poor as their offensive counterparts. Examining the projections for 2016, however, one finds three pitchers — Jorge de la Rosa (143.0 IP, 2.7 zWAR), Jon Gray (140.1 IP, 2.2 zWAR), and Chad Bettis (138.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) — who profile as average or better. Given adequate health, that triumvirate alone could outpeform last year’s entire rotation.

A club which occupies Colorado’s likely place on the win curve doesn’t typically benefit from the services of even the most elite reliever. As such, the recent acquisition of Jake McGee (53.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) remains perplexing. That doesn’t curtail the strength of his personal projection, however, which is strong. Strong strength, is what it has. Inside of it. Jake McGee’s projections.

Bench/Prospects
Colorado actually does possess a decent collection of legitimate prospects who are also relatively close to the majors. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, Trevor Story (543 PA, 1.6 zWAR) is nearly an average big-leaguer already, while infielder Cristhian Adames (558 PA, 1.3 zWAR), third baseman Ryan McMahon (565 PA, 1.1 zWAR), and Raimel Tapia (600 PA, 1.0 zWAR) all profile as competent bench guys. Among the pitchers, the effect is equally pronounced, as both Jeff Hoffman (117.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Antonio Senzatela (135.0 IP, 1.1 zWAR) are well-acquitted by the projections.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Rockies Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 25 3B 612 70 163 40 4 30 87 2 3
Carlos Gonzalez L 30 RF 473 62 118 22 3 27 73 8 1
Charlie Blackmon L 29 CF 638 73 166 29 6 16 60 30 10
Trevor Story R 23 SS 543 57 120 29 7 18 63 17 4
Jose Reyes B 33 SS 545 68 152 26 3 9 53 22 6
DJ LeMahieu R 27 2B 593 62 156 22 6 6 51 20 7
Cristhian Adames B 24 SS 558 53 145 21 5 7 47 10 9
Ryan McMahon L 21 3B 565 61 125 30 4 18 65 6 13
Gerardo Parra L 29 RF 584 77 157 32 4 10 52 11 7
Raimel Tapia L 22 CF 600 62 156 27 5 12 59 26 16
Mark Reynolds R 32 1B 431 47 90 17 1 25 61 3 2
David Dahl L 22 CF 448 45 111 21 4 11 42 20 8
Justin Morneau L 35 1B 388 40 104 21 2 12 48 0 1
Nick Hundley R 32 C 330 32 84 16 2 9 40 3 3
Dustin Garneau R 28 C 363 35 83 17 1 10 39 3 3
Tom Murphy R 25 C 350 37 74 17 2 14 44 3 3
Ben Paulsen L 28 1B 535 52 128 27 5 19 63 3 3
Ryan Casteel R 25 C 330 31 77 15 2 8 34 2 2
Mike Tauchman L 25 LF 418 38 102 16 4 3 31 16 9
Pat Valaika R 23 SS 527 48 116 21 5 10 50 17 9
Jordan Patterson L 24 RF 480 49 106 24 4 13 49 14 10
Roger Bernadina L 32 CF 295 29 58 10 2 6 30 9 3
Rafael Ynoa B 28 2B 464 44 114 23 3 3 36 8 5
Jackson Williams R 30 C 309 28 65 12 1 4 25 2 2
Alex Castellanos R 29 LF 383 51 87 21 4 11 51 7 3
Brandon Barnes R 30 LF 405 43 96 20 2 8 36 10 6
Joey Wong L 28 3B 279 21 61 14 2 1 19 3 3
Daniel Descalso L 29 SS 250 27 53 10 2 4 24 3 3
Jose Rivera R 26 2B 172 14 36 7 1 1 12 1 2
Jeremy Barfield R 27 RF 247 25 52 10 1 7 24 0 0
Brock Bond B 30 2B 258 27 58 7 1 1 16 2 2
Wilin Rosario R 27 1B 436 47 115 24 1 16 60 3 2
Tim Wheeler L 28 RF 438 39 87 16 2 7 34 9 4
Kyle Parker R 26 LF 521 51 121 21 3 13 54 5 4
Tyler Massey L 26 RF 426 37 95 15 4 5 34 15 8
Will Swanner R 24 1B 431 40 84 16 1 15 43 6 7
Correlle Prime R 22 1B 569 53 126 27 2 14 59 9 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Nolan Arenado 612 5.1% 14.4% .243 .290 .287 .324 .530 .356
Carlos Gonzalez 473 8.0% 22.6% .254 .303 .274 .332 .528 .364
Charlie Blackmon 638 5.6% 15.5% .153 .318 .285 .336 .438 .346
Trevor Story 543 7.7% 29.7% .197 .323 .244 .308 .441 .330
Jose Reyes 545 6.1% 9.2% .117 .319 .302 .343 .419 .339
DJ LeMahieu 593 6.6% 16.5% .095 .339 .287 .335 .382 .319
Cristhian Adames 558 5.6% 15.9% .102 .331 .284 .327 .386 .314
Ryan McMahon 565 6.9% 31.0% .178 .327 .242 .301 .420 .323
Gerardo Parra 584 5.7% 14.4% .130 .328 .292 .335 .422 .330
Raimel Tapia 600 3.7% 19.2% .130 .328 .280 .310 .410 .325
Mark Reynolds 431 10.7% 27.1% .249 .272 .238 .325 .487 .349
David Dahl 448 3.3% 24.1% .144 .322 .258 .283 .402 .310
Justin Morneau 388 6.7% 13.9% .172 .315 .294 .345 .466 .346
Nick Hundley 330 5.5% 20.6% .153 .323 .274 .316 .427 .324
Dustin Garneau 363 6.1% 16.3% .148 .274 .250 .302 .398 .306
Tom Murphy 350 6.0% 31.1% .195 .300 .230 .287 .425 .311
Ben Paulsen 535 6.7% 27.3% .191 .330 .260 .313 .451 .329
Ryan Casteel 330 4.8% 25.8% .138 .314 .248 .285 .386 .295
Mike Tauchman 418 7.2% 17.7% .086 .322 .267 .322 .353 .312
Pat Valaika 527 4.9% 26.8% .125 .310 .237 .276 .362 .287
Jordan Patterson 480 5.0% 27.3% .162 .314 .243 .301 .405 .321
Roger Bernadina 295 9.2% 28.5% .124 .308 .225 .309 .349 .295
Rafael Ynoa 464 5.6% 17.2% .088 .317 .264 .307 .352 .294
Jackson Williams 309 7.1% 20.1% .093 .281 .231 .292 .324 .275
Alex Castellanos 383 6.3% 26.6% .177 .319 .249 .309 .426 .323
Brandon Barnes 405 5.4% 25.4% .128 .333 .257 .304 .385 .308
Joey Wong 279 5.0% 20.4% .083 .303 .239 .286 .322 .269
Daniel Descalso 250 8.4% 18.0% .116 .280 .238 .308 .354 .286
Jose Rivera 172 4.1% 22.7% .076 .292 .226 .266 .302 .253
Jeremy Barfield 247 7.3% 23.1% .147 .274 .231 .287 .378 .290
Brock Bond 258 7.4% 15.1% .052 .294 .250 .313 .302 .279
Wilin Rosario 436 4.1% 21.3% .179 .322 .278 .310 .457 .330
Tim Wheeler 438 7.3% 27.4% .104 .296 .220 .286 .324 .275
Kyle Parker 521 5.6% 26.1% .136 .319 .249 .294 .385 .299
Tyler Massey 426 5.4% 22.1% .096 .302 .241 .286 .337 .285
Will Swanner 431 7.7% 37.6% .161 .318 .214 .277 .375 .294
Correlle Prime 569 3.9% 29.2% .135 .308 .232 .264 .367 .280

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Nolan Arenado 612 6.4 117 10 4.1 Tim Wallach
Carlos Gonzalez 473 6.7 118 -1 1.8 Roger Repoz
Charlie Blackmon 638 5.8 99 -4 1.8 Oddibe McDowell
Trevor Story 543 5.1 91 -2 1.6 Ian Desmond
Jose Reyes 545 5.8 96 -6 1.6 Mark Grudzielanek
DJ LeMahieu 593 5.0 86 5 1.4 Ron Oester
Cristhian Adames 558 4.6 84 3 1.3 Ronny Cedeno
Ryan McMahon 565 4.1 84 7 1.1 Tom Quinlan
Gerardo Parra 584 5.3 95 6 1.0 Marlon Byrd
Raimel Tapia 600 4.6 85 3 1.0 Derrick May
Mark Reynolds 431 5.6 107 0 0.7 Andruw Jones
David Dahl 448 4.3 75 6 0.7 Shane Mack
Justin Morneau 388 6.1 108 1 0.7 Jorge Orta
Nick Hundley 330 4.9 90 -5 0.7 Charlie Berry
Dustin Garneau 363 4.2 80 -2 0.6 Dave Van Gorder
Tom Murphy 350 4.2 82 -6 0.3 Bob Geren
Ben Paulsen 535 5.1 95 2 0.2 Oreste Marrero
Ryan Casteel 330 3.9 72 -3 0.1 Bill Hayes
Mike Tauchman 418 4.1 75 6 0.0 Buck McNabb
Pat Valaika 527 3.5 64 2 -0.1 J.J. Furmaniak
Jordan Patterson 480 4.2 81 3 -0.1 Edgardo Baez
Roger Bernadina 295 3.9 70 -1 -0.1 Kevin Koslofski
Rafael Ynoa 464 3.9 70 1 -0.2 Jose Olmeda
Jackson Williams 309 3.3 60 -2 -0.3 Chris Tremie
Alex Castellanos 383 4.8 88 -4 -0.3 Scott Wade
Brandon Barnes 405 4.2 77 2 -0.4 T.J. Bohn
Joey Wong 279 3.1 57 2 -0.5 Jason Wood
Daniel Descalso 250 3.7 71 -5 -0.5 Mike Moriarty
Jose Rivera 172 2.6 47 1 -0.6 Roger Burnett
Jeremy Barfield 247 3.8 71 -1 -0.6 Greg Patton
Brock Bond 258 3.3 61 -3 -0.7 Todd Crosby
Wilin Rosario 436 5.3 95 -8 -0.8 Rich Aude
Tim Wheeler 438 3.2 58 3 -1.3 Phil Geisler
Kyle Parker 521 4.0 74 -4 -1.3 Craig Cooper
Tyler Massey 426 3.4 61 1 -1.4 Tonayne Brown
Will Swanner 431 3.4 67 -4 -2.0 Tate Seefried
Correlle Prime 569 3.4 62 0 -2.5 Matt Fields

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jorge de la Rosa L 35 26 26 143.0 112 57 16 141 72 67
Jon Gray R 24 27 27 140.3 118 47 16 150 75 70
Chad Bettis R 27 27 25 138.3 114 48 18 147 75 70
Jordan Lyles R 25 20 19 106.3 69 37 10 116 59 55
Jeff Hoffman R 23 21 21 117.3 87 46 16 127 66 62
Jake McGee L 29 59 0 53.7 61 16 5 46 20 19
Antonio Senzatela R 21 25 25 135.0 83 42 20 154 81 76
Rudy Owens L 28 17 14 80.3 51 25 10 89 47 44
Chris Rusin L 29 28 25 152.3 84 45 22 183 96 90
David Hale R 28 31 17 109.0 69 39 13 124 65 61
Tyler Anderson L 26 18 18 89.0 61 33 13 98 54 50
Adam Ottavino R 30 49 0 56.3 57 20 6 52 25 23
Tyler Chatwood R 26 10 10 52.7 38 19 7 55 29 27
Tyler Matzek L 25 22 12 74.0 65 50 8 73 43 40
Eddie Butler R 25 25 25 128.7 75 56 17 150 82 77
Justin Miller R 29 51 0 54.7 51 19 6 52 26 24
Jason Gurka L 28 35 2 61.0 47 20 7 64 32 30
German Marquez R 21 24 21 115.7 75 36 18 134 75 70
Chad Qualls R 37 55 0 47.0 39 10 5 47 22 21
Christian Bergman R 28 29 17 112.0 63 26 19 134 72 67
Carlos Hernandez L 29 19 15 85.0 46 23 13 102 55 51
Boone Logan L 31 53 0 35.3 40 14 4 33 17 16
Carlos Estevez R 23 45 0 56.3 49 17 7 58 29 27
Shane Carle R 24 26 25 144.3 76 34 25 177 96 90
Jair Jurrjens R 30 18 16 90.7 45 31 13 111 60 56
Jason Motte R 34 49 0 44.0 36 11 6 45 22 21
Austin House, M.D. R 25 54 0 59.7 44 24 6 63 32 30
Christian Friedrich L 28 45 6 66.3 54 27 9 73 40 37
Miguel Castro R 21 53 0 60.3 50 24 7 63 33 31
Sam Moll L 24 28 0 44.7 35 14 5 48 24 22
Scott Oberg R 26 58 0 54.0 43 24 7 55 30 28
Matt Flemer R 25 24 23 135.0 68 37 23 166 92 86
Simon Castro R 28 35 8 82.7 62 32 13 92 54 50
Rafael Betancourt R 41 29 0 28.7 23 12 4 31 17 16
Gonzalez Germen R 28 58 0 69.7 60 34 9 72 41 38
Jairo Diaz R 25 62 0 69.3 59 33 9 71 41 38
Brian Schlitter R 30 58 0 55.3 34 23 5 65 34 32
Jose Ortega R 27 48 0 53.3 42 36 7 57 35 33
Brock Huntzinger R 27 47 0 63.3 51 32 11 68 43 40
Ryan Carpenter L 25 21 21 115.3 74 41 26 140 87 81
Brett Marshall R 26 15 14 73.0 48 45 15 87 59 55

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jorge de la Rosa 143.0 627 17.9% 9.1% .286 4.22 4.29 92 102
Jon Gray 140.3 618 19.1% 7.6% .312 4.49 4.08 98 96
Chad Bettis 138.3 610 18.7% 7.9% .304 4.55 4.31 99 102
Jordan Lyles 106.3 472 14.6% 7.8% .304 4.66 4.30 102 102
Jeff Hoffman 117.3 525 16.6% 8.8% .300 4.76 4.76 104 113
Jake McGee 53.7 223 27.3% 7.2% .293 3.19 2.94 70 70
Antonio Senzatela 135.0 601 13.8% 7.0% .299 5.07 4.97 111 118
Rudy Owens 80.3 355 14.4% 7.0% .298 4.93 4.56 108 108
Chris Rusin 152.3 685 12.3% 6.6% .305 5.32 4.84 116 115
David Hale 109.0 490 14.1% 8.0% .305 5.04 4.55 110 108
Tyler Anderson 89.0 398 15.3% 8.3% .297 5.06 4.97 111 118
Adam Ottavino 56.3 241 23.7% 8.3% .297 3.67 3.64 80 86
Tyler Chatwood 52.7 232 16.4% 8.2% .289 4.61 4.59 101 109
Tyler Matzek 74.0 345 18.8% 14.5% .300 4.86 5.04 106 119
Eddie Butler 128.7 592 12.7% 9.5% .304 5.39 5.14 118 122
Justin Miller 54.7 235 21.7% 8.1% .293 3.95 3.88 86 92
Jason Gurka 61.0 267 17.6% 7.5% .300 4.43 4.20 97 99
German Marquez 115.7 517 14.5% 7.0% .304 5.45 5.00 119 118
Chad Qualls 47.0 198 19.7% 5.1% .296 4.02 3.52 88 83
Christian Bergman 112.0 496 12.7% 5.2% .299 5.38 5.02 118 119
Carlos Hernandez 85.0 380 12.1% 6.1% .305 5.40 5.09 118 121
Boone Logan 35.3 153 26.2% 9.2% .316 4.08 3.64 89 86
Carlos Estevez 56.3 244 20.1% 7.0% .304 4.31 4.10 94 97
Shane Carle 144.3 644 11.8% 5.3% .303 5.61 5.23 123 124
Jair Jurrjens 90.7 414 10.9% 7.5% .307 5.56 5.19 122 123
Jason Motte 44.0 188 19.1% 5.9% .291 4.30 3.98 94 94
Austin House, M.D. 59.7 266 16.5% 9.0% .301 4.53 4.25 99 101
Christian Friedrich 66.3 299 18.1% 9.0% .311 5.02 4.57 110 108
Miguel Castro 60.3 268 18.7% 9.0% .303 4.62 4.16 101 98
Sam Moll 44.7 196 17.8% 7.1% .309 4.43 4.19 97 99
Scott Oberg 54.0 241 17.8% 10.0% .294 4.67 4.76 102 113
Matt Flemer 135.0 608 11.2% 6.1% .303 5.73 5.37 125 127
Simon Castro 82.7 372 16.7% 8.6% .305 5.44 5.09 119 120
Rafael Betancourt 28.7 129 17.8% 9.3% .303 5.02 4.73 110 112
Gonzalez Germen 69.7 315 19.0% 10.8% .300 4.91 4.58 107 109
Jairo Diaz 69.3 312 18.9% 10.6% .300 4.93 4.71 108 111
Brian Schlitter 55.3 254 13.4% 9.1% .318 5.20 4.41 114 104
Jose Ortega 53.3 253 16.6% 14.2% .305 5.57 5.49 122 130
Brock Huntzinger 63.3 290 17.6% 11.0% .295 5.68 5.42 124 128
Ryan Carpenter 115.3 527 14.0% 7.8% .301 6.32 6.06 138 143
Brett Marshall 73.0 351 13.7% 12.8% .303 6.78 6.53 148 155

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jorge de la Rosa 143.0 7.05 3.59 1.01 106 2.7 Bob Ojeda
Jon Gray 140.3 7.57 3.01 1.03 100 2.2 Aaron Harang
Chad Bettis 138.3 7.42 3.12 1.17 98 2.1 Scott Kamieniecki
Jordan Lyles 106.3 5.84 3.13 0.85 96 1.5 Brian Allard
Jeff Hoffman 117.3 6.68 3.53 1.23 94 1.5 Andy Ashby
Jake McGee 53.7 10.22 2.68 0.84 141 1.2 George Sherrill
Antonio Senzatela 135.0 5.53 2.80 1.33 88 1.1 Fernando DaSilva
Rudy Owens 80.3 5.72 2.80 1.12 91 0.9 Brian Mazone
Chris Rusin 152.3 4.96 2.66 1.30 84 0.8 Huck Flener
David Hale 109.0 5.70 3.22 1.07 89 0.8 Elliot Brown
Tyler Anderson 89.0 6.17 3.34 1.31 89 0.8 Tommy Phelps
Adam Ottavino 56.3 9.11 3.20 0.96 122 0.7 Todd Jones
Tyler Chatwood 52.7 6.49 3.24 1.20 97 0.7 Steve Green
Tyler Matzek 74.0 7.91 6.08 0.97 92 0.7 Bill Pulsipher
Eddie Butler 128.7 5.24 3.92 1.19 83 0.6 Jim Hunter
Justin Miller 54.7 8.39 3.13 0.99 113 0.6 David Lee
Jason Gurka 61.0 6.93 2.95 1.03 101 0.5 Jon Switzer
German Marquez 115.7 5.83 2.80 1.40 82 0.5 Jim Gutierrez
Chad Qualls 47.0 7.47 1.91 0.96 111 0.4 Dave Pavlas
Christian Bergman 112.0 5.06 2.09 1.53 83 0.4 Kris Wilson
Carlos Hernandez 85.0 4.87 2.44 1.38 83 0.4 Randy Leek
Boone Logan 35.3 10.20 3.57 1.02 110 0.4 Armando Almanza
Carlos Estevez 56.3 7.83 2.72 1.12 104 0.3 Mauro Zarate
Shane Carle 144.3 4.74 2.12 1.56 80 0.3 Charlie Scott
Jair Jurrjens 90.7 4.47 3.08 1.29 81 0.3 Bob Milacki
Jason Motte 44.0 7.36 2.25 1.23 104 0.2 Blas Minor
Austin House, M.D. 59.7 6.63 3.62 0.90 99 0.2 Joe Davenport
Christian Friedrich 66.3 7.33 3.67 1.22 89 0.2 Erick Burke
Miguel Castro 60.3 7.46 3.58 1.04 97 0.2 Pat Flury
Sam Moll 44.7 7.05 2.82 1.01 101 0.2 Kevin Saucier
Scott Oberg 54.0 7.17 4.00 1.17 96 0.1 Jamie Emiliano
Matt Flemer 135.0 4.53 2.47 1.53 78 0.0 Charlie Scott
Simon Castro 82.7 6.75 3.48 1.41 82 0.0 Fernando Rijo
Rafael Betancourt 28.7 7.21 3.76 1.25 89 -0.1 Jose Mesa
Gonzalez Germen 69.7 7.75 4.39 1.16 91 -0.1 Steve Chitren
Jairo Diaz 69.3 7.66 4.29 1.17 91 -0.1 Ramser Correa
Brian Schlitter 55.3 5.53 3.74 0.81 86 -0.3 Jarod Juelsgaard
Jose Ortega 53.3 7.09 6.08 1.18 80 -0.6 Bart Evans
Brock Huntzinger 63.3 7.25 4.55 1.56 79 -0.7 Mumba Rivera
Ryan Carpenter 115.3 5.78 3.20 2.03 71 -0.8 Kevin King
Brett Marshall 73.0 5.92 5.55 1.85 66 -0.9 Chris Clemons

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2016 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Tom Dooley
Member
Tom Dooley

I understand too much attention is given to the comps, but I can’t help enjoying Mark Reynolds as Andruw Jones.

Dee P. Gordon
Member

Must be his similarity to Gold-Glove winning CF Adam Dunn.