2016 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Only three batters last year recorded both 300-plus plate appearances and also a .300 isolated-power figure: Chris Davis (670 PA, .300 ISO), Bryce Harper (654 PA, .319 ISO), and Giancarlo Stanton (318 PA, .341 ISO). That’s merely one of the many possible ways to state an obvious thing — namely, that the Marlins’ right fielder is among the most impressive power hitters in the league. What else that set of criteria reveals, however, is that Stanton was limited by injury. Because if the plate-appearance threshold were raised to 319, his name would disappear.

In his five years as a regular, Stanton has averaged 512 plate appearances per season. Not the worst case scenario, certainly, but not ideal — and the results have been fantastic, regardless. If his projection (499 PA, 4.9 zWAR) seems a bit light relative to his prodigious talents, however, it’s the result of a somewhat modest plate-appearance forecast.

Examining Miami’s field players as a whole, one finds a group well equipped to produce wins at an average rate in 2016, with Dee Gordon (606 PA, 2.6 zWAR), Martin Prado (578 PA, 2.6 zWAR), and Christian Yelich (596 PA, 3.2 zWAR) all complementing Stanton. First base, meanwhile, appears to be the most immediate area of concern: even in a platoon, Justin Bour (501 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Chris Johnson (443 PA, 0.2 zWAR) might exhibit some difficulty in separating themselves from replacement level.

Pitchers
Miami starters produced the fifth-lowest collective WAR among all major-league rotations in 2015. Not a distinction, that, which one would expect from a club that employs Jose Fernandez (147.1 IP, 4.0 zWAR). But that’s mostly because Fernandez wasn’t really pitching last season, only returning in July from a Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab. Even so, he produced the highest WAR figure on the club.

Joining Fernandez at the top of the rotation this year is left-hander Wei-Yin Chen (174.0 IP, 3.5 zWAR), for whom Dan Szymborski’s computer has produced an optimistic projection. In 117 starts and 706.2 innings, Chen has recorded about three more wins by the version of WAR which utilizes run allowed and not fielding-independent pitching as the main variable. ZiPS appears to put some weight on the former.

Of some interest is how new manager Don Mattingly will handle the fifth spot in the rotation. There are multiple options, but young left-hander Adam Conley (127.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) receives the top projection among all of them. As for the bullpen, it appears to be a competent unit. A.J. Ramos (67.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) ought to serve as a fine closer, although no one can match Carter Capps (43.2 IP, 1.1 zWAR) on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired in the same deal that sent Dee Gordon to Miami, Miguel Rojas (414 PA, 1.1 zWAR) possesses little offensive value, but receives a projection of +6 runs at shortstop, offering considerable value in that regard as a bench player. Tomas Telis (445 PA, 0.9 zWAR) features a similar profile at catcher. The organization contains few prospects who are ready to contribute in the majors. Austin Nola (505 PA, 0.3 zWAR), J.T. Riddle (421 PA, 0.4 zWAR), and Elliott Soto (376 PA, 0.3 zWAR) are all light-hitting infielders with defensive skills. Among pitchers, there are more options — certainly more than appear on the depth-chart graphic below. Also contending for the fifth-starter spot are Edwin Jackson (141.1 IP, 0.9 zWAR), David Phelps (104.2 IP, 1.0 ZWAR), and Justin Nicolino (168.1 IP, 1.0 zWAR). Acquired in the deal that sent Casey McGehee to San Francisco one time, Kendry Flores (113.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR) also profiles as a possible useful injury replacement.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Miamis, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.