2016 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Only three batters last year recorded both 300-plus plate appearances and also a .300 isolated-power figure: Chris Davis (670 PA, .300 ISO), Bryce Harper (654 PA, .319 ISO), and Giancarlo Stanton (318 PA, .341 ISO). That’s merely one of the many possible ways to state an obvious thing — namely, that the Marlins’ right fielder is among the most impressive power hitters in the league. What else that set of criteria reveals, however, is that Stanton was limited by injury. Because if the plate-appearance threshold were raised to 319, his name would disappear.

In his five years as a regular, Stanton has averaged 512 plate appearances per season. Not the worst case scenario, certainly, but not ideal — and the results have been fantastic, regardless. If his projection (499 PA, 4.9 zWAR) seems a bit light relative to his prodigious talents, however, it’s the result of a somewhat modest plate-appearance forecast.

Examining Miami’s field players as a whole, one finds a group well equipped to produce wins at an average rate in 2016, with Dee Gordon (606 PA, 2.6 zWAR), Martin Prado (578 PA, 2.6 zWAR), and Christian Yelich (596 PA, 3.2 zWAR) all complementing Stanton. First base, meanwhile, appears to be the most immediate area of concern: even in a platoon, Justin Bour (501 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Chris Johnson (443 PA, 0.2 zWAR) might exhibit some difficulty in separating themselves from replacement level.

Pitchers
Miami starters produced the fifth-lowest collective WAR among all major-league rotations in 2015. Not a distinction, that, which one would expect from a club that employs Jose Fernandez (147.1 IP, 4.0 zWAR). But that’s mostly because Fernandez wasn’t really pitching last season, only returning in July from a Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab. Even so, he produced the highest WAR figure on the club.

Joining Fernandez at the top of the rotation this year is left-hander Wei-Yin Chen (174.0 IP, 3.5 zWAR), for whom Dan Szymborski’s computer has produced an optimistic projection. In 117 starts and 706.2 innings, Chen has recorded about three more wins by the version of WAR which utilizes run allowed and not fielding-independent pitching as the main variable. ZiPS appears to put some weight on the former.

Of some interest is how new manager Don Mattingly will handle the fifth spot in the rotation. There are multiple options, but young left-hander Adam Conley (127.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) receives the top projection among all of them. As for the bullpen, it appears to be a competent unit. A.J. Ramos (67.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) ought to serve as a fine closer, although no one can match Carter Capps (43.2 IP, 1.1 zWAR) on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired in the same deal that sent Dee Gordon to Miami, Miguel Rojas (414 PA, 1.1 zWAR) possesses little offensive value, but receives a projection of +6 runs at shortstop, offering considerable value in that regard as a bench player. Tomas Telis (445 PA, 0.9 zWAR) features a similar profile at catcher. The organization contains few prospects who are ready to contribute in the majors. Austin Nola (505 PA, 0.3 zWAR), J.T. Riddle (421 PA, 0.4 zWAR), and Elliott Soto (376 PA, 0.3 zWAR) are all light-hitting infielders with defensive skills. Among pitchers, there are more options — certainly more than appear on the depth-chart graphic below. Also contending for the fifth-starter spot are Edwin Jackson (141.1 IP, 0.9 zWAR), David Phelps (104.2 IP, 1.0 ZWAR), and Justin Nicolino (168.1 IP, 1.0 zWAR). Acquired in the deal that sent Casey McGehee to San Francisco one time, Kendry Flores (113.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR) also profiles as a possible useful injury replacement.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Miamis, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Marlins Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Giancarlo Stanton R 26 RF 499 72 115 22 2 34 83 7 3
Christian Yelich L 24 LF 596 80 147 30 4 10 51 18 6
Dee Gordon L 28 2B 606 81 165 20 9 3 40 53 18
Martin Prado R 32 3B 578 58 149 26 3 9 61 3 2
Marcell Ozuna R 25 CF 574 67 140 30 3 16 67 4 2
J.T. Realmuto R 25 C 478 53 112 22 5 7 47 10 4
Adeiny Hechavarria R 27 SS 573 56 143 20 8 4 49 7 4
Miguel Rojas R 27 SS 414 41 94 15 2 4 32 4 5
Justin Bour L 28 1B 501 53 121 23 0 19 67 2 0
Tomas Telis B 25 C 445 45 103 19 2 4 36 5 2
Casey McGehee R 33 3B 428 37 97 20 0 6 42 1 2
Derek Dietrich L 26 LF 460 63 98 21 4 14 45 1 2
Adrian Nieto B 26 C 287 28 54 11 1 5 21 1 1
J.T. Riddle L 24 SS 421 45 98 13 2 5 32 5 2
Austin Nola R 26 SS 505 45 98 19 2 1 33 3 2
Elliot Soto R 26 SS 376 34 75 10 1 1 20 4 3
Brandon Bantz R 29 C 168 16 35 7 0 2 13 0 1
Justin Bohn R 23 SS 499 51 107 17 3 7 40 8 3
Zach Lutz R 30 3B 272 31 58 11 2 6 25 1 1
Chris Johnson R 31 3B 443 35 114 21 1 7 42 3 1
Justin Maxwell R 32 RF 283 31 55 11 2 7 25 3 2
Dan Black B 28 1B 427 50 92 16 2 11 43 2 1
Cole Gillespie R 32 RF 367 39 83 17 2 4 29 7 2
Tommy Medica R 28 1B 378 46 83 18 3 10 42 4 2
Jeff Mathis R 33 C 183 14 32 7 1 3 18 0 0
Brady Shoemaker R 29 LF 453 48 99 19 1 8 42 1 1
Matt Juengel R 26 LF 489 54 112 21 3 10 49 5 2
Francisco Arcia L 26 C 253 22 53 8 1 3 18 1 1
Don Kelly L 36 3B 131 14 26 4 1 1 9 2 1
Kenny Wilson R 26 CF 487 49 100 18 4 5 34 21 8
Jeff Baker R 35 1B 143 16 32 6 1 4 15 1 0
Sharif Othman B 27 C 218 20 41 7 1 3 16 0 0
Ichiro Suzuki L 41 RF 374 42 86 8 4 1 21 11 4
Robert Andino R 32 2B 328 29 65 12 1 3 23 2 2
Destin Hood R 26 LF 416 38 86 18 4 8 36 5 3
Isaac Galloway R 26 CF 427 37 84 14 5 5 33 10 7
Xavier Scruggs R 28 1B 500 53 96 21 1 12 49 4 4
Yefri Perez B 25 CF 434 42 90 11 1 1 23 28 12

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton 499 12.8% 28.9% .300 .321 .269 .369 .569 .390
Christian Yelich 596 10.1% 21.8% .128 .349 .276 .351 .404 .340
Dee Gordon 606 5.1% 15.5% .083 .344 .292 .331 .375 .335
Martin Prado 578 6.1% 11.1% .111 .301 .280 .326 .391 .313
Marcell Ozuna 574 6.3% 23.7% .158 .324 .263 .312 .421 .320
J.T. Realmuto 478 5.2% 17.4% .119 .292 .252 .294 .371 .295
Adeiny Hechavarria 573 4.9% 16.1% .090 .312 .266 .302 .356 .288
Miguel Rojas 414 5.3% 12.3% .082 .275 .248 .292 .330 .274
Justin Bour 501 8.2% 19.8% .175 .300 .265 .327 .440 .327
Tomas Telis 445 3.4% 12.6% .084 .273 .245 .274 .329 .263
Casey McGehee 428 8.9% 18.7% .099 .300 .251 .318 .350 .297
Derek Dietrich 460 6.3% 24.3% .174 .295 .240 .318 .414 .319
Adrian Nieto 287 8.7% 30.0% .109 .293 .210 .284 .319 .270
J.T. Riddle 421 3.8% 16.4% .081 .287 .248 .281 .329 .270
Austin Nola 505 7.9% 21.8% .058 .282 .218 .286 .276 .253
Elliot Soto 376 8.5% 21.8% .045 .291 .224 .294 .269 .258
Brandon Bantz 168 6.0% 22.0% .085 .284 .227 .277 .312 .261
Justin Bohn 499 6.4% 23.6% .095 .296 .232 .284 .327 .274
Zach Lutz 272 8.1% 24.6% .135 .301 .239 .306 .374 .300
Chris Johnson 443 4.1% 23.5% .105 .344 .271 .303 .376 .295
Justin Maxwell 283 7.1% 30.0% .140 .286 .213 .276 .353 .281
Dan Black 427 9.1% 24.8% .139 .302 .241 .312 .380 .301
Cole Gillespie 367 7.9% 16.6% .099 .292 .251 .309 .350 .294
Tommy Medica 378 6.1% 25.4% .155 .299 .239 .294 .394 .304
Jeff Mathis 183 6.6% 30.1% .107 .261 .192 .243 .299 .229
Brady Shoemaker 453 8.2% 21.9% .110 .299 .243 .311 .353 .296
Matt Juengel 489 4.5% 17.2% .124 .277 .244 .284 .368 .288
Francisco Arcia 253 4.7% 20.2% .080 .275 .226 .274 .306 .260
Don Kelly 131 9.9% 15.3% .078 .263 .226 .308 .304 .280
Kenny Wilson 487 6.0% 25.3% .093 .298 .225 .280 .318 .278
Jeff Baker 143 7.0% 25.9% .153 .308 .244 .301 .397 .301
Sharif Othman 218 5.0% 29.4% .089 .279 .203 .247 .292 .232
Ichiro Suzuki 374 6.1% 13.6% .055 .287 .249 .294 .304 .272
Robert Andino 328 5.2% 23.5% .076 .273 .213 .255 .289 .243
Destin Hood 416 4.6% 31.3% .128 .306 .221 .260 .349 .270
Isaac Galloway 427 3.0% 31.4% .096 .293 .207 .232 .303 .240
Xavier Scruggs 500 9.2% 31.4% .133 .303 .216 .300 .349 .294
Yefri Perez 434 4.1% 20.3% .039 .279 .221 .259 .260 .254

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton 499 7.8 155 4 4.9 Harmon Killebrew
Christian Yelich 596 5.4 109 8 3.2 Carlos May
Dee Gordon 606 5.1 95 2 2.6 Luis Castillo
Martin Prado 578 4.8 98 4 2.6 Bob Aspromonte
Marcell Ozuna 574 4.8 101 -2 2.2 Dave Henderson
J.T. Realmuto 478 4.0 83 1 1.8 Johnny Monell
Adeiny Hechavarria 573 3.9 81 3 1.6 Jack Wilson
Miguel Rojas 414 3.3 72 6 1.1 Michael Cockrell
Justin Bour 501 5.3 110 -2 1.1 Larry Sheets
Tomas Telis 445 3.3 66 3 0.9 Chad Strickland
Casey McGehee 428 3.9 85 -2 0.7 Brook Jacoby
Derek Dietrich 460 4.6 101 -6 0.5 Ryan Church
Adrian Nieto 287 3.1 67 -1 0.4 Rob Bowen
J.T. Riddle 421 3.3 68 0 0.4 Brandon Fahey
Austin Nola 505 2.7 57 5 0.3 Chris Gutierrez
Elliot Soto 376 2.7 57 4 0.3 Chris Gutierrez
Brandon Bantz 168 2.9 63 2 0.3 Mike DiFelice
Justin Bohn 499 3.3 69 -3 0.3 Tim Bogar
Zach Lutz 272 4.0 87 -4 0.3 Chris Saunders
Chris Johnson 443 4.3 87 -7 0.2 Bill Stein
Justin Maxwell 283 3.3 73 5 0.2 Dann Howitt
Dan Black 427 4.2 91 1 0.2 Jeff Bailey
Cole Gillespie 367 4.0 82 0 0.1 Hal Lee
Tommy Medica 378 4.1 88 1 0.1 Yurendell de Caster
Jeff Mathis 183 2.4 49 1 -0.1 Chad Moeller
Brady Shoemaker 453 3.9 84 -3 -0.1 Russ Morman
Matt Juengel 489 3.8 79 0 -0.1 Mike Peeples
Francisco Arcia 253 2.9 61 -3 -0.1 Marc Ronan
Don Kelly 131 3.3 71 -2 -0.2 Dan Rohn
Kenny Wilson 487 3.2 65 -2 -0.3 Charles Thomas
Jeff Baker 143 4.4 91 -4 -0.3 Mike Hegan
Sharif Othman 218 2.4 49 -2 -0.4 Ryan Luzinski
Ichiro Suzuki 374 3.3 66 2 -0.5 Lou Brock
Robert Andino 328 2.5 50 1 -0.7 Chris Petersen
Destin Hood 416 3.1 67 2 -0.7 Brian Gordon
Isaac Galloway 427 2.3 47 6 -0.8 Gary Dawson
Xavier Scruggs 500 3.5 79 -3 -0.9 Reggie Whittemore
Yefri Perez 434 2.4 44 3 -0.9 Dan Ramirez

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jose Fernandez R 23 26 26 147.3 171 37 11 125 48 45
Wei-Yin Chen L 30 29 29 174.0 139 36 16 168 67 63
Jarred Cosart R 26 25 24 132.0 91 57 10 125 61 57
Adam Conley L 26 25 23 127.3 95 48 10 126 60 56
Tom Koehler R 30 29 27 164.0 121 65 18 161 81 76
A.J. Ramos R 29 67 0 67.3 80 33 5 50 22 21
Carter Capps R 25 38 0 43.7 62 15 3 31 12 11
David Phelps R 29 25 16 104.7 83 35 10 104 50 47
Justin Nicolino L 24 29 29 168.3 77 38 18 187 88 82
Edwin Jackson R 32 26 26 141.3 97 50 13 146 74 69
Kendry Flores R 24 25 21 113.7 83 35 13 119 59 55
Jose Urena R 24 29 22 134.7 82 38 14 146 71 66
Brad Hand L 26 33 16 105.7 79 44 10 106 55 51
Mike Dunn L 31 70 0 55.7 64 24 5 46 22 21
Cody Ege L 25 39 0 55.7 57 21 5 49 22 21
Greg Nappo L 27 41 0 56.7 50 16 5 53 24 22
Ivan Pineyro R 24 22 22 111.7 80 35 14 118 61 57
Andre Rienzo R 27 29 19 112.7 82 50 12 115 61 57
Nick Wittgren R 25 55 0 64.7 56 14 6 63 28 26
Erik Cordier R 30 47 0 53.7 56 31 4 46 24 22
Kyle Barraclough R 26 59 0 63.3 70 44 4 51 28 26
Brian Ellington R 25 41 0 63.0 56 29 5 58 28 26
Bryan Morris R 29 65 0 66.7 50 28 5 65 30 28
Chris Narveson L 34 21 12 78.0 61 30 11 79 43 40
Raudel Lazo L 27 19 0 25.3 23 7 2 24 11 10
Troy Patton L 30 30 0 33.7 28 10 3 32 15 14
Matt Ramsey R 26 31 0 43.7 44 26 3 39 20 19
Jake Esch R 26 23 22 111.3 71 44 13 121 64 60
Travis Blackley L 33 21 7 54.0 38 18 8 57 30 28
Sean Donatello R 25 36 0 45.7 35 14 5 47 22 21
Blake Logan R 24 35 5 72.3 60 26 10 74 39 36
Dylan Axelrod R 30 27 20 120.0 82 37 17 130 70 65
Dustin McGowan R 34 41 3 58.3 45 31 6 57 31 29
Jo-Jo Reyes L 31 17 12 74.0 42 29 9 82 44 41
Tim Berry L 25 23 19 107.0 69 43 13 116 63 59
Jarlin Garcia L 23 24 24 122.7 83 38 18 137 73 68
Paul Clemens R 28 27 8 66.7 45 29 9 69 39 36
Ryan Chaffee R 28 28 0 35.0 32 23 3 33 19 18
Pat Urckfitz L 27 44 0 57.7 37 25 5 60 31 29
Robert Morey R 27 21 15 85.3 48 39 10 96 52 49
Austin Brice R 24 25 24 119.3 96 67 16 124 73 68
Scott McGough R 26 40 0 54.3 36 26 5 57 30 28
Nefi Ogando R 27 46 0 61.7 48 32 6 62 34 32
Chris Reed L 26 33 14 98.7 70 56 11 103 60 56
Joshua Hodges R 25 32 10 87.3 56 37 13 97 55 51
Jorge de Leon R 28 48 1 62.7 41 27 8 67 37 35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jose Fernandez 147.3 604 28.3% 6.1% .300 2.75 2.65 70 70
Wei-Yin Chen 174.0 726 19.1% 5.0% .286 3.26 3.43 83 90
Jarred Cosart 132.0 578 15.7% 9.9% .276 3.89 4.13 99 109
Adam Conley 127.3 556 17.1% 8.6% .293 3.96 3.96 101 104
Tom Koehler 164.0 718 16.9% 9.1% .281 4.17 4.38 107 115
A.J. Ramos 67.3 285 28.1% 11.6% .275 2.81 3.22 72 85
Carter Capps 43.7 177 35.0% 8.5% .298 2.27 2.38 58 63
David Phelps 104.7 453 18.3% 7.7% .294 4.04 3.94 103 104
Justin Nicolino 168.3 730 10.5% 5.2% .287 4.38 4.40 112 116
Edwin Jackson 141.3 620 15.6% 8.1% .291 4.39 4.05 112 107
Kendry Flores 113.7 495 16.8% 7.1% .297 4.35 4.27 111 113
Jose Urena 134.7 588 13.9% 6.5% .295 4.41 4.25 113 112
Brad Hand 105.7 467 16.9% 9.4% .291 4.34 4.20 111 111
Mike Dunn 55.7 237 27.0% 10.1% .289 3.40 3.32 87 88
Cody Ege 55.7 237 24.0% 8.9% .291 3.40 3.52 87 93
Greg Nappo 56.7 239 20.9% 6.7% .291 3.49 3.50 89 92
Ivan Pineyro 111.7 488 16.4% 7.2% .295 4.59 4.46 117 118
Andre Rienzo 112.7 503 16.3% 9.9% .293 4.55 4.61 116 121
Nick Wittgren 64.7 271 20.7% 5.2% .297 3.62 3.38 93 89
Erik Cordier 53.7 238 23.5% 13.0% .294 3.69 3.94 94 104
Kyle Barraclough 63.3 285 24.6% 15.4% .285 3.69 3.91 94 103
Brian Ellington 63.0 276 20.3% 10.5% .291 3.71 3.94 95 104
Bryan Morris 66.7 293 17.1% 9.6% .290 3.78 3.90 97 103
Chris Narveson 78.0 343 17.8% 8.7% .287 4.62 4.74 118 125
Raudel Lazo 25.3 107 21.5% 6.5% .298 3.55 3.32 91 88
Troy Patton 33.7 143 19.6% 7.0% .287 3.74 3.55 96 94
Matt Ramsey 43.7 196 22.4% 13.3% .300 3.92 3.96 100 104
Jake Esch 111.3 499 14.2% 8.8% .296 4.85 4.73 124 125
Travis Blackley 54.0 237 16.0% 7.6% .287 4.67 4.68 119 123
Sean Donatello 45.7 198 17.7% 7.1% .298 4.14 4.10 106 108
Blake Logan 72.3 317 18.9% 8.2% .295 4.48 4.46 115 118
Dylan Axelrod 120.0 527 15.6% 7.0% .293 4.87 4.64 125 122
Dustin McGowan 58.3 263 17.1% 11.8% .285 4.47 4.60 114 121
Jo-Jo Reyes 74.0 333 12.6% 8.7% .293 4.99 4.95 128 130
Tim Berry 107.0 480 14.4% 9.0% .295 4.96 4.83 127 127
Jarlin Garcia 122.7 543 15.3% 7.0% .300 4.99 4.82 128 127
Paul Clemens 66.7 298 15.1% 9.7% .283 4.86 4.96 124 131
Ryan Chaffee 35.0 161 19.9% 14.3% .297 4.63 4.51 118 119
Pat Urckfitz 57.7 258 14.3% 9.7% .292 4.53 4.25 116 112
Robert Morey 85.3 391 12.3% 10.0% .298 5.17 5.07 132 134
Austin Brice 119.3 549 17.5% 12.2% .298 5.13 5.16 131 136
Scott McGough 54.3 246 14.6% 10.6% .296 4.64 4.53 119 119
Nefi Ogando 61.7 279 17.2% 11.5% .295 4.67 4.52 119 119
Chris Reed 98.7 455 15.4% 12.3% .294 5.11 4.99 131 131
Joshua Hodges 87.3 396 14.1% 9.3% .295 5.26 5.26 134 139
Jorge de Leon 62.7 282 14.5% 9.6% .290 5.03 4.85 129 128

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Fernandez 147.3 10.45 2.26 0.67 140 4.0 Dwight Gooden
Wei-Yin Chen 174.0 7.19 1.86 0.83 118 3.5 Greg Swindell
Jarred Cosart 132.0 6.20 3.89 0.68 99 1.7 Blue Moon Odom
Adam Conley 127.3 6.72 3.39 0.71 98 1.5 Bill Krueger
Tom Koehler 164.0 6.64 3.57 0.99 93 1.4 Jamey Wright
A.J. Ramos 67.3 10.70 4.41 0.67 138 1.1 Jim Kern
Carter Capps 43.7 12.77 3.09 0.62 170 1.1 Rob Dibble
David Phelps 104.7 7.13 3.01 0.86 96 1.0 Dennis Burtt
Justin Nicolino 168.3 4.12 2.03 0.96 88 1.0 Blaine Beatty
Edwin Jackson 141.3 6.18 3.18 0.83 88 0.9 Andy Hawkins
Kendry Flores 113.7 6.57 2.77 1.03 89 0.7 Eric Boudreaux
Jose Urena 134.7 5.48 2.54 0.94 88 0.7 Nick Blackburn
Brad Hand 105.7 6.73 3.75 0.85 89 0.6 John Pacella
Mike Dunn 55.7 10.34 3.88 0.81 114 0.5 Tim Fortugno
Cody Ege 55.7 9.21 3.39 0.81 114 0.5 Joe Klink
Greg Nappo 56.7 7.94 2.54 0.79 110 0.4 Javier Lopez
Ivan Pineyro 111.7 6.45 2.82 1.13 84 0.4 Jim Blueberg
Andre Rienzo 112.7 6.55 3.99 0.96 85 0.3 Chris Rojas
Nick Wittgren 64.7 7.79 1.95 0.83 107 0.3 Shawn Kohn
Erik Cordier 53.7 9.39 5.20 0.67 105 0.3 Reggie Harris
Kyle Barraclough 63.3 9.95 6.26 0.57 104 0.3 Billy Sadler
Brian Ellington 63.0 8.00 4.14 0.71 104 0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Bryan Morris 66.7 6.75 3.78 0.67 102 0.2 Al Corwin
Chris Narveson 78.0 7.04 3.46 1.27 84 0.2 Chris Michalak
Raudel Lazo 25.3 8.18 2.49 0.71 109 0.2 Tom Burgmeier
Troy Patton 33.7 7.48 2.67 0.80 103 0.1 Bryan Eversgerd
Matt Ramsey 43.7 9.06 5.35 0.62 99 0.1 Josh Banks
Jake Esch 111.3 5.74 3.56 1.05 80 0.0 Patrick Coogan
Travis Blackley 54.0 6.33 3.00 1.33 83 0.0 Jason Jacome
Sean Donatello 45.7 6.89 2.76 0.98 93 0.0 Jay Aldrich
Blake Logan 72.3 7.47 3.24 1.24 86 -0.1 Joe Cotton
Dylan Axelrod 120.0 6.15 2.78 1.28 79 -0.1 Nerio Rodriguez
Dustin McGowan 58.3 6.95 4.79 0.93 86 -0.1 Johnny Klippstein
Jo-Jo Reyes 74.0 5.11 3.53 1.09 77 -0.2 Roger Deago
Tim Berry 107.0 5.80 3.62 1.09 78 -0.2 Matt White
Jarlin Garcia 122.7 6.09 2.79 1.32 77 -0.2 Kevin King
Paul Clemens 66.7 6.07 3.91 1.21 79 -0.2 Mumba Rivera
Ryan Chaffee 35.0 8.23 5.91 0.77 83 -0.3 Bart Evans
Pat Urckfitz 57.7 5.77 3.90 0.78 85 -0.4 Danny Young
Robert Morey 85.3 5.06 4.11 1.06 75 -0.4 Scott Brow
Austin Brice 119.3 7.24 5.05 1.21 75 -0.4 Wray Bergendahl
Scott McGough 54.3 5.97 4.31 0.83 83 -0.4 Mark Zamarripa
Nefi Ogando 61.7 7.00 4.67 0.88 83 -0.5 Agustin Montero
Chris Reed 98.7 6.38 5.11 1.00 76 -0.6 Mike Matthews
Joshua Hodges 87.3 5.77 3.81 1.34 73 -0.7 Phil Dumatrait
Jorge de Leon 62.7 5.89 3.88 1.15 77 -0.8 Mumba Rivera

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Cleveland Spellcheck
6 years ago

So who’s the #1 comp for Jeffrey Loria?

TheGrandslamwich
6 years ago

Rachel Phelps.

Alex Trebek
6 years ago

I am.

Also, this team seems perfectly cromulent.