2016 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
At some level, the ZiPS projections for Minnesota — and, in particular, for the positional corps of the club — represent a best-case scenario: despite having dealt with injury in recent years, wunderkind prospects Byron Buxton and third baseman/left fielder Miguel Sano already possess two of the top-three WAR forecasts on the team. This is, in a sense, a desirable outcome: the organization’s most promising young players have developed, it would seem, into its most productive contributors.

Unfortunately, Buxton and Sano receive merely three-win projections — as opposed to, like, five-win ones. Which means that, if those two are the club’s “most productive contributors,” then the other contributors profile as roughly average or below that. The Twins actually do seem to possess quite a few players (Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, Trevor Plouffe) in the dependably average range — and in the era of two wild cards, average isn’t entirely undesirable. Given the current roster, however, it would appear as though “sneaking” into the postseason represents the team’s upside.

Pitchers
In 2015, Twins starting pitchers recorded a collective park-adjusted ERA roughly 2% higher than their collective park-adjusted FIP. Or, worded differently: the rotation posted an ERA- two points higher than its FIP-. In theory, those two numbers (ERA- and FIP-) ought to resemble each other pretty much. That said, the two-point difference for the Twins was the best for the club’s rotation over the past five years.

Regard:

On average, over the past five years, Twins starters have recorded ERA- figures roughly 11 points higher than their FIP- ones. There are a couple ways for that to happen. One is possibly the defense. Another is possibly the club’s pitchers are poor at managing contact. Regardless, it appears to be a trend. And it’s a trend that manifests itself in the projections produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer. Because look: Kyle Gibson (176.1 IP, 103 ERA-, 96 FIP-) and Phil Hughes (167.0 IP, 101 ERA-, 86 FIP-) and Ervin Santana (141.2 IP, 111 ERA-, 103 FIP-) and others are all forecast to allow more runs than the most popular and simple ERA estimator suggests they should.

Bench/Prospects
The author of 22 career major-league plate appearances, infielder Wilfredo Tovar (431 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is a candidate to augment that figure this year after having left the Mets as a minor-league free agent. He profiles as a competent bench player — the best in the organization, per ZiPS. Compelling German outfielder Max Kepler (488 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receives probably the most promising projection among the club’s rookie-eligible position players after an excellent minor-league season. As for pitchers, talented right-hander Jose Berrios (146.1 IP, 1.7 zWAR) unsurprisingly receives the top projection among the team’s prospects, following a season in which his numbers matched his stuff.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.